1a2AC – Round 5
Case
Cred is key to make heg sustainable.
Jervis, Columbia IR professor, 2009
(Robert, “Unipolarity A Structural Perspective”, World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009, Project Muse, ldg)
To say that the system is …believe that its leadership is benign.
Israel isn’t key
Gray, MA conflict resolution King’s College, 2011
(Matthew, “Middle East Turmoil is Not the Same Old Story”, 8-15, http://www.democracystandard.com/israel/middle-east-turmoil-is-not-the-same-old-story/, DOA: 11-20-11, ldg)
Yet the article proceeds to argue that …against the democratic wave that is still sweeping through the Middle East.
Leading from behind devastates US influence
Krauthammer, 11
Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, 4/29/11, The Obama Doctrine: Leading from Behind, www.nationalreview.com/articles/265933/obama-doctrine-leading-behind-charles-krauthammer, 2/10/12, atl]
To be precise, leading from behind is a…. Leading from behind is not leading. It is abdicating. It is also an oxymoron. Yet a sympathetic journalist, channeling an Obama adviser, elevates it to a doctrine. The president is no doubt flattered. The rest of us are merely stunned.
Africa
African leadership is key
Kaberuku, African Development Bank president, 11
[Donald, December 26, 2011, “Let Africa show the way on climate change”, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/let-africa-show-the-way-on-climate-change-1.956807, 2/9/12, atl]
Arguably, the greatest calamities facing …have an impact on development.
Sucessful TuNur implementation establishes a global model and leads to Saharan renewables
Commodities Now, 1/24
[January 24, 2012, “Tunisian sun will light European homes by 2016”, http://www.commodities-now.com/reports/power-and-energy/9741-tunisian-sun-will-light-european-homes-by-2016.html, 2/13/12, atl]
In the sands of North Africa, the DESERTEC …this is the first of many more such plants to be built in the desert regions of the world."
ASPEC
No limits DA for foreign policy
Kegley et al., Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs secretary, 2011
(Charles, “Foreign Policy Decision Making Models”, http://faculty.ucc.edu/egh-damerow/decision_making_models.htm, DOA: 9-22-11, ldg)
Rational Actor Decision Making Model Assumptions… actor making decisions. Each unitary actor makes rational choices.
Economy CP 2AC
Perm do both
Doesn’t solve cred –people are looking for democracy activism – that’s Pollack
Governance is a pre req to economic sustainability – that’s Le Nevez
Political freedoms are a pre requisite – an economic focus skirts the issue
Muasher, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, 11
[Marwan, January 30, 2011, “Three Lessons Arab Leaders Can't Ignore”, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/01/30/three-lessons-arab-leaders-can-t-ignore/4ff, 11/30/11, atl]
The Arab world is abuzz with …and political rights, the Arab world is destined for more crises.
Doesn’t make sense in context of the aff – expertise transfers are key – not money – governance is the only thing that signals public faith and solves corruption – only spillover – that’s Fagbayibo
CP kills credibility
Innocent, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute, 11
[Malou, January 18, 2011, “Populist Discontent in Tunisia”, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/populist-discontent-tunisia-omen-other-us-backed-regimes-the-4739?page=1, 12/4/11, atl]
Washington can take sides…” is a problematic construct used reluctantly for lack of a better alternative.
Incentive-based approaches require lots of political capital
Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Next Generation Fellow, 5
(Steven A, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, March/April, “The Right Way to Promote Arab Reform,” http://www.cfr.org/democracy-promotion/right-way-promote-arab-reform/p8115, accessed 3-31-12, tlr)
The Bush administration has, in fact,….. It would, however, demand a significant amount of political will.
India CP
Perm do the CP
Perm do both and solves NB – India will take credit for the plan – shields backlash
Solves best
Democracy Digest 2010
(“A U.S.-India Partnership to Advance democracy?” 11/4/10 http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2010/11/a-u-s-india-partnership-to-advance-democracy/ accessed: 2/26/12 mlb)
As President Barack Obama prepares to take off for India, the first stop of a …could work with American counterparts to support democracy abroad.”
Perm do plan then CP
Links to politics
Reuters 11
[Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership, mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921, 2/10/12, atl]
Foreign policy has slipped down his policy list, a trend not lost on fellow leaders trying to fathom how much of a role Obama intends to play in world affairs. A key example was Obama's decision to keep U.S. forces mostly in a support role in the NATO bombing campaign that helped oust Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Obama has drawn criticism for what has been seen as a slow and uneven response to the "Arab spring" uprisings engulfing friends and foes alike, and Republicans say his "leading from behind" approach undermines U.S. global prestige.
Costs kill democratic model, soft power, regional relations, and give rise to China AND domestic debate kills model
Faust and Wagner, GDI Governance Statehood and Security Department Head, DDI Asia Research Division Head, 2010
(Jorg and Christian “India: A New Partner in Democracy Promotion” March 2010 German Development Institute http://www.die-gdi.de/CMS-Homepage/openwebcms3.nsf/(ynDK_contentByKey)/ANES-825GSY/$FILE/BP%203.2010.pdf accessed: 2/26/12 mlb)
Global costs: At a global level… violence and ongoing social marginalisation.
India’s democracy is filled with corruption at every level – kills cred and model
Ganguly Indian Cultures and Civilizations Chair Indiana University, 2011
(Sumit, “Corruption eating at India’s democracy,” East Asia Forum, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/05/13/corruption-eating-at-india-s-democracy-2/, accessed 2/26/2012) jba
It is now widely known that the government …obtaining preferential treatment in obtaining college admissions.
China is pushing for authoritarianism – they would backlash to the CP – only the plan solves
Democracy Digest, 11
[October 6, 2011, Democracy promotion – a geostrategic contest”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/democracy-promotion-a-geostrategic-contest/, 2/9/12, atl]
Finally, we cannot outsource democracy …consequences of their actions.
India says no – they would explicitly reject something like the plan because they see it as constraining their own foreign policy.
Carothers and Youngs, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vice president, 11
(Thomas and Richard, leading expert on democratization and FRIDE director general, University of Warwick assistant professor, July 2011, “Looking for help: Will Rising Democracies Become International Democracy Supporters?” http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rising_democracies_final.pdf, p.9, accessed 3-31-12, tlr)
At the same time, India is suspicious …tensions and reduce India’s room to maneuver on other issues. 16
India’s soft power is strong and inevitable – multiple alt causes ensure
South Asian Times 12
(“India Chooses To Use Its Soft Power Only,” February 2012, http://www.thesouthasiantimes.info/content/features/india-chooses-use-its-soft-power-only, accessed 3-19-12, ara)
Hailed as a superpower…, pathfinding and persuasive.
JV – 2AC
Russia is resilient to collapse- political credit; political fatalism, ineffective social action, and lack of an alternative ensure no chance of regime crisis
Lo, Centre for European Reform Russia and China programmes director, 2009
[Bobo, former Australian diplomat in Moscow, Centre for European Reform, "Russia’s crisis – what it means forregime stability and Moscow’srelations with the world," February, http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/policybrief_russia_19feb09.pdf, accessed June 2009, mss]
Regime resilience
Given the problems facing Russia and Putin personally, …source of serious ideas, and the only body capable of implementing them.
WTO membership solves – US isn’t key
Indrus, 3-30
(“World Bank Paints a Rosy Picture for Russia’s post-WTO Economy,” Indrus, March 30, 2012, http://indrus.in/articles/2012/03/29/world_bank_paints_a_rosy_picture_for_russias_post-wto_economy_15209.html, accessed 3-31-12, tlr)
WTO membership will have a …,” said the authors. “It is important to focus on the displaced workers, not the sectors.”
No action until post-election
Graham, former NSC Russia senior director, 3-15
(Thomas, former Senior Director at the National Security Council for Russia under the President George W. Bush (2004-7), managing Director at Kissinger Associates, interview with Babich Dmitry, "US and Russia: Art of giving and taking," Voice of Russia, 3-15-12, english.ruvr.ru/2012_03_15/68570775/, accessed 3-23-12, mss)
A lot of analysts still predict …in the United States this November.
Won’t pass- Russophobia, no groundwork, PC fails [econ arg won’t work]
Schatz, CQ staff, 3-17
(Joseph, "To Russia, With Limited Love," CQ Weekly, 3-17-12, public.cq.com/docs/weeklyreport/weeklyreport-000004047667.html, accessed 3-21-12, mss)
The question is whether anything will be enough… economic boon from dealing with Russia is an equally tough sell.”
XO solves
Jatras, Squire Sanders Principal, 3-23
(James George, Principal at Squire Sanders Public Advocacy, "Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?," Russia Profile, 3-23-12, Factiva, accessed 3-29-12, mtf)
Until very recently, …presidential action at any time).
Magnistky Act will pass, kills relations
Gvosdev, U.S. Naval War College national-security professor, 2-10
(Nikolas, National Interest senior editor, "The Realist Prism: Resetting the U.S.-Russia Reset," 2-10-12, World Politics Review, webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:DH8B7VmCrHQJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11441/the-realist-prism-resetting-the-u-s-russia-reset+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us, accessed 3-27-12, mss)
An upcoming decision-point could offer …Russia on a whole range of issues, from chicken imports to religious freedom.
Obama won’t spend PC
Inside US Trade, 1-13
(CNI, "White House Under Pressure To Do Heavy Lifting On Russia MFN Vote," www.cinpr.org.br/uploadAddress/INT130112%5B31775%5D.pdf, accessed 3-24-12, mss)
The Obama administration is under heavy …convinced the administration is committed to having the Russia vote this year.
Election year ensures repeal will be delayed
Belaeff, Global Society Institute, 3-23
(Vladimir, Global Society Institute, San Francisco, CA, "Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?," Russia Profile, 3-23-12, Factiva, accessed 3-29-12, mtf)
It seems that for Russians, the legislative abrogation…, even though the substance of this law is now mostly obsolete.
US won’t engage Russia
Graham, former NSC Russia senior director, 11
(Thomas, former Senior Director at the National Security Council for Russia under the President George W. Bush (2004-7), managing Director at Kissinger & Associates, "The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations," 6-3-11, www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0105.html/:pf_printable, accessed 3-24-12, mss)
Missing Constituencies, Elusive Public Support
The strains arise from obvious conflicts of interests… administration has not found any.
Presidential leadership’s irrelevant
Jacobs et al., Minnesota political studies professor, 2010
(Lawrence, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency” Perspectives on Politics, Volume 8, Issue 3, project muse, ldg)
But personality is …Presidential sales pitches go only so far.
Obama won’t push
Marcus, Washington Post editorial writer specializing in American politics, 11
(Ruth, "Obama's Leadership: A presidency reminiscent of 'Where's Waldo'," The Oregonian (Portland Oregon), 3-2-11, l/n, accessed 3-3-11, mss)
For a man who won office talking about...find the White House amid the larger landscape.
5. Drones
Kouri, Law Enforcement Examiner, 3-25
(Jim, fifth Vice President and Public Information Officer of the National Association of Chiefs of Police, "Domestic drone flights create political firestorm," Examiner, 3-25-12, www.examiner.com/law-enforcement-in-national/domestic-drone-flights-create-political-firestorm, accessed 3-29-12, mss)
Domestic drone flights …
President, Barack Obama," the CAA alert states.
Money for the plan is set aside.
USGLC 12-21-11
(U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, “International Affairs Budget Update”, http://www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/USGLC-IAB-Budge-Update-12-21-11-FINAL.pdf, DOA: 1-17-12, ldg)
Overseas Contingency Operations
… under the base budget.
Winners win – foreign policy successes are key – domestic losses are irrelevant
Mandel, Security Fellow, 3-23-12
(Seth, at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Lessons of Presidential Persuasion: Be the Commander-In-Chief”, Accessed 3-31-12, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/03/23/presidential-persuasion-commander-in-chief-obama-reagan-clinton/) NJR
Overall, he writes, the…, visible and audible leadership on national security.
Democracy assistance is bipartisan
Democracy Digest, 11
(“9/11 restored bipartisan consensus on strategic value of democracy assistance”, 9-8-11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/911-restored-bipartisan-consensus-on-strategic-value-of-democracy-assistance/, DOA: 9-16-11, ldg)
The mistaken conflation …at home is worthy of note.”
Russia’s Economy is sustainable- BRIC focus proves
CRJEnglish, 2012
(“BRICS Summit to Focus Global Governance, Sustainable Development”, http://english.cri.cn/6966/2012/03/29/2021s689885.htm, 3-29-12, lmm)
The 4th BRICS summit …for an open and transparent cooperation.
Qatar
No link – we don’t overtake Qatar – plan just allows for sustained governance – Qatar can help in other areas if you win a mutual exclusivity argument
Influence inevitable and North Africa not key
Aeschbacher, Swiss ambassador to Qatar, 3-19-12
(Martin, “Switzerland To Open Embassy In ‘Rising’ Power Qatar” http://www.eurasiareview.com/19032012-switzerland-to-open-embassy-in-rising-power-qatar/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29, d/a 3-31-12, ads)
M.A.: Qatar is a country …fully represented in this country.
Hassan, Iraqi political scientist, 2-24-12
[Hareth, “Qatar, Al Jazeera, and the Age of Virtual Power” http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/qatar-al-jazeera-and-age-virtual-power, accessed 3-31-12, ads]
This is the post-… that it wishes to impose on others.
Influence inevitable and North Africa not key.
Aeschbacher, Swiss ambassador to Qatar, 12
(Martin, “Switzerland To Open Embassy In ‘Rising’ Power Qatar” March 19, http://www.eurasiareview.com/19032012-switzerland-to-open-embassy-in-rising-power-qatar/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29, accessed 3-31-12, tlr)
M.A.: Qatar is a country …fully represented in this country.
Afghanistan instability doesn’t spillover- these predictions are unfounded and historically inaccurate- AND indigenous groups will pro-actively defend themselves against external threats
Silverman, Ph.D. in international relations, 11-19-2009
[Jerry, Ford Foundation Project Specialist, "Sturdy Dominos," http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22512, accessed 11-19-9, atw/mss]
Many advocates of…, to establish centralized state authority there.
A. Afghanistan stability leads to new Central Asian energy routes – cause Russian economic decline
Safranchuk, Bolshaya Igra editor-in-chief, July-Sept 2009
[Ivan, holds a Doctorate in Political Science, Bolshaya Igra (The Great Game) is a magazine dealing with politics, business and security in Central Asia, "The Afghan Problem in the Regional Context," Russia in Global Affairs, No3, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/28/1303.html, accessed 1-12-10, mss]
This statement suggests that …disadvantageous for Russia.
