3 choices: the novices will mostly run Egypt IMET or Egypt constitutional reform, some will run Bahrain constiutional aid, the JV team runs a Tunisia aff generally defending democracy assistance. the varsity team of EK is now a critical Bahrain aff (below) (Barton Caffrey Cassiano are Tunisia and Valentine/Eizadi are Bahrain)
USC/Fullerton Swing--Varsity team of Kovtun/Eizadi is running a version of the Bahrain aff below, similar plan, different iac tags/arguments.
________________
Bahrain K Aff (usually without a plan text)
We start with an argument that goes without saying but bears repeating as a point of departure…
Rhetoric Comes First.
Doremus, Professor of Law, University of California @ Davis, 2000
[Holly, “The Rhetoric and Reality of Nature Protection: Toward a New Discourse,” Washington and Lee Law Review, 57 Wash & Lee L. Rev. 11, p. l/n]
Rhetoric matters. …..provide a shared language for envisioning problems and solutions.
And, Robert Ivie, a Rhetoric Professor at Indiana, concurs in 2007:
Storytelling, as a case in point, is a cultural form that is "essential to collective memory" and can be made to serve as a ritualizing practice
Professor Ivie in 2007 (Robert Ivie, Prof. Communication @ Indiana, 07 (Rhetoric & Public Affairs 10.2 (2007) 221-248)
who contends that discursive rituals about enemies and cohorts actually matter.
Taking seriously ritual's peace-building potential ….. in order to meet the needs of real situations."102
Our example of the need to ritualize the reversal of enemy construction turns to Bahrain and the U.S. refusal to engage the movement for democracy there because of our military posture, emphasis, and containment of Iran.
The United States’ focus in the Persian Gulf is on securitization policy rather than political solutions.
John Morrissey June 2011 (Antipode Volume 43, Issue 3 Closing the Neoliberal Gap: Risk and Regulation in the Long War of Securitization)
When US military commanders refer today to the “long war”……securitization by US military force.
Among the many problems with US securitization policy, the one that can be challenged through U.S. emphasis and prioritization on democracy in Bahrain, is the unfounded Fear of Iran.
This policy of securitization is directly pointed toward Iran. United States has made a false threat out of Iran since 1979 revolution and defined it as a rouge state.
Sheldon Richman is senior fellow at The Future of Freedom Foundation, author of Tethered Citizens: Time to Repeal the Welfare State, and editor of The Freeman magazine. October ‘09 (“Exit Afghanistan and Leave Iran Alone” The Future of Freedom Foundation - http://www.fff.org/comment/com0910a.asp)
The Obama administration’s quest to control the health-insurance industry …..Will we ever learn that imperial foreign policy is self-defeating?
Next The root of all this is set in history and United states policy toward Iran since 1953. United States is directly responsible for the animosity of Iranians toward American government.
Roland S. Martin A nationally syndicated columnist, the author of "Listening to the Spirit Within: 50 Perspectives on Faith" and "Speak, Brother! A Black Man's View of America. June 18, 2009 (“Commentary: U.S. should leave Iran alone” http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/06/24/martin.obama.iran/index.html?iref=nextin)
Critics of President Obama, mostly Republicans…..It's best that we shut up and allow Iran to determine Iran's fate.
In addition, Bahrain is crucial to the conflict and political confrontation between Iran and US. It’s where scholars and policy makers like Michael Rubin engage in dangerous threat construction of Iran, using democracy in Bahrain as the carrot and the stick.
Alan Silverleib, February 17, 2011 (“Bahrain: What is at stake for America” CNN - http://articles.cnn.com/2011-02-17/us/us.bahrain.stakes_1_isa-al-khalifa-bahrainis-king-hamad?_s=PM:US)
Bahrain -- a tiny group of islands where hot political rhetoric ….The stakes could not be higher.
Indeed, anti-democracy efforts in Bahrain are the epicenter and ultimate manifestation of U.S. attempts to contain and demonize Iran.
Deepak Tripathi, Jun 2011 (“Countering Iran the major factor behind US support for Bahrain” - Interview by Kourosh Ziabari - http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/06/countering-iran-the-major-factor-behind-us-support-for-bahrain-deepak-tripathi/)
Kourosh Ziabari: Do you consider the chained, continuous revolutions in the Arab world a result of pan-Arabist, nationalistic sentiments of the peoples of region who rose up?
. I fear we will see a long war in Libya.
Any grass root and youth movement by dissent in order to bring reform to Iran is pummeled by government agent as an act of enemy isolation and extermination.
Dr. Mansour Farhang is a Professor of Political Science at Bennington College, Vermont, Summer 2008 (The New Presence Journal)
Referring to a state as a “rogue state” ….
can only worsen the situation and harm the cause of democracy in Iran.
Only reduced securitization by US will lead to reform in the region, including within Iran
Reza Marashi January 18, 2011 Reza Marashi is Director of Research at the National Iranian American Council and a former Iran Desk Officer at the U.S. State Department. (“The heavy costs of war with Iran” The Daily Caller - http://dailycaller.com/2011/01/18/the-heavy-costs-of-war-with-iran/)
Perhaps most importantly, ….It is the responsibility of policymakers and pundits alike to guide America away from the illogical costs of war with Iran.
The only way to reduce tensions is to change our security based democracy assistance approach.
Alexander TJ. Lennon, Senior Fellow, Project Director - March 2009 (Center for Strategic and International Studies: International Security Policy Brief “Democracy in U.S. Security Strategy: from Promotion to Support”)
expert elaborated that “military force should never be used to impose democracy….. even if they can be minimized by changes in U.S. strategy.
Their hegemony logics make no sense—the US is not acting with an understanding of the inevitable decline of influence in the region.
Deepak Tripathi, Jun 2011 (“Countering Iran the major factor behind US support for Bahrain” - Interview by Kourosh Ziabari - http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/06/countering-iran-the-major-factor-behind-us-support-for-bahrain-deepak-tripathi/)
KZ: Do you agree with the idea that the Middle East revolutions, specially the popular uprisings in Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan and Egypt, will be of Iran’s interests?
But that makes Western policy in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen even more inconsistent, if not hypocritical.
Finally, We must end our threat construction through discourse we have control over.
Robert Ivie, Prof. Communication @ Indiana, 07 (Rhetoric & Public Affairs 10.2 (2007) 221-248)
Americans can neither isolate themselves from the world nor fully master and tame it.
__________
EGYPT IMET
OBSERVATION ONE: INHERENCY
Assistance has been pledged to the region from a lot of sources, but much of it is not getting through.
Rosenberg, Sept., ’11 (9-11-11, David, “Doubts About Aid to Arab Spring” The Media Line, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholder'>org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholder'>org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholder'>org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=33210http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=33210, acsd 9-11-11)
But even as Arab Spring economies reel,…. it’s even harder.”
The need for targeted assistance to the government is there, but programs like International Military Education Training—IMET—are being cut to Egypt.
Mattis and Inhofe 11 (General James, Commander, US Central Command and Senator Inhofe, Hearing to Receive Testimony on US Special Operations Command and US central command review of the defense authorization request for fiscal year 2012 and the future years defense program,” Committee on Armed Services, March 1, 2011, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2011/03%20March/11-05%20-%203-1-11.pdf)http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2011/03%20March/11-05%20-%203-1-11.pdf)
Yes, I would say that is true…..now as it is in Egypt.
Observation 2: Our Impacts. We have one main Advantage: Stability in Egypt
Subpoint A) Civil Military Conflict. Egyptian CMR is low now – the military is disconnected from society
Krieg 11 (Andreas, Egyptian Civil-Military Relations and Egypt’s Potential Transition to Democracy, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.thepicaproject.org/?page_id=760http://www.thepicaproject.org/?page_id=760, Andreas Krieg, PhD King’s College London, War Studies Department / Department of Defence Studies) JSM
Egypt constitutes are very distinctive … power in civil state affairs.
Egypt’s military can’t and won’t conduct successful elections now
Christian Science Monitor 7/21 (2011, Kristen Chick Correspondent, “Egypt's military rulers ban foreign election observers;
Egypt's ruling military council said foreigners won't be allowed to monitor Egyptian elections, scheduled for November. That has some local activists worried about the credibility of the vote.” Lexis) MV
Egyptian rights activists are raising strong concerns after the country's heir long experience with Mubarak."
If this type of instability continues, volatile tensions in the region could spark a global nuclear war. Egypt is one of the pillars in the region, perceived as a necessary counterweight to Iran.
London 10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)
The coming storm in….the tent collapses.
And, expansion of IMET training among upper-level officers in Egypt is vital
Burton 11 (Brian, Bacevich fellow at the Center for a New American Security, March 28, “Refocus Mideast Presence U.S. Should Emphasize Training, Reduce Footprint,” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6072558&c=FEA&s=COM)http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6072558&c=FEA&s=COM) JJN
The popular upheavals shaking … of the Mubarak regime.
Only the US can help shape the Egyptian military
Kitfield 11 (James, national security and foreign affairs correspondent for National Journal magazine, an independent and non-partisan newsweekly on politics and government published by Atlantic Media Company, “Ghosts of the ‘Arab Spring,”’National Journal Magazine, February 12, 2011, found on Academic Search Premier) MNC
"Arab regimes tend …$1.3 billion in U.S. aid annually, and its close ties to the U.S. military, constitute Washington's most powerful trump card in the high-stakes game in Egypt.
Sub-point B) The Spread of Democracy outside Egypt
Egypt civil military relations are modeled by the entire region and vital to maintain Spring
Takeyh 3/29 (org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/opinion/30iht-edTakeyh30.html?_r=1http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/opinion/30iht-edTakeyh30.html?_r=1, The Key Is Not in Libya, By RAY TAKEYH, March 29, 2011)
A league of autocrats … in a progressive direction.
Democracy is needed throughout the region to promote peace.
Larry Diamond, ‘95
(Diamond 95 Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, Larry, Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1995, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990’s,” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm)http://www.wilsoncenter.org/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm)
This hardly exhausts the lists of threats … can be built.
1AC—IMET (Plan)
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase International Military Education Training (IMET) resources and support for Egypt, particularly E-IMET increases of at least $150 million per year, curriculum focused on democratic principles, emphasizing potential risks and rewards, contrasting democratic structures, diversity and flexibility in governing and civil society, tolerance for all political parties, and expanded access to all levels of the military and security apparatus.
Observation Three: Solvency
Funding uncertainty undermines IMET effectiveness. More frequent funding key to success
Bruneau, Peggar, and Wright 8 (Researchers at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “IMET Assessment Project,” pg 52-54, 2008)
One suggestion for improvement …(tuition, travel, per diem, etc.) on an annual or biennial basis.
IMET directly responsible for Egyptian stability during the Arab Spring – more funding is key
Roberts 11 (James, research fellow for Economic Freedom and Growth in the Center for International Trade and Economics at the Heritage Foundation, “Not All Foreign Aid is Equal,” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/not-all-foreign-aid-is-equal)http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/not-all-foreign-aid-is-equal) KJS
The value of U.S. … funding of international peacekeeping operations.
Expanding IMET aid is key to teach the Egyptian military governance and electoral skills
Cook 9 (Stephen, Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action “Political Instability in Egypt” Contingency Planning memorandum no. 4, August) www.i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
A different strategy would… monitor Egypt’s presidential elections.
IMET funding should be increased to stabilize democracy in Egypt
Farr 11 (Sam, Congressman for California’s 17th District, Testimony at the State, Foreign Operations, & Related Programs FY12 Testimony , 2011, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://appropriations.house.gov/_files/041311HonorableSamFarr.pdf)http://appropriations.house.gov/_files/041311HonorableSamFarr.pdf) KJS
The State Department’s IMET … their nascent democratic aspirations.
IMET effectively trains participants to influence their home country’s civil society and government
Bruneau, Peggar, and Wright 8 (Researchers at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “IMET Assessment Project,” pg 33-34, 2008) KJS
The next three questions…s included in the survey.
International leaders agree: IMET fosters civil-military relations in five ways
Rhame 97 (Lieutenant General Thomas G. Rhame, Director, Defense Security Assistance Agency, Statement before the Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade Promotion, Senate Foreign Relations Committee March 12, 1997) KJS
IMET is our single most …., Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic .
IMET instills value of good CMR
Bruneau, Peggar, and Wright 8 (Researchers at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “IMET Assessment Project,” pg 48-49, 2008) KJS
IMET exposes participants ……. responses to question 22.)
E-IMET influences top policy and military officials
Reynolds 3 (Dr. Ron, Doctorate of Public Administration, DISAM Commandant, “Is Expanded International Military Education and Training reaching the right Audience?,” Defense Institution of Security Assistance Management publications, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IAJ/is_3_25/ai_104634859/pg_4/)http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IAJ/is_3_25/ai_104634859/pg_4/) KJS
The most telling data …..be on target.
END
TUNISIA AFF
Observation One: Self-Immolation
Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution took the world by storm. The lessons to take from this opening moment are that nation states are made up of people and people cannot be fully predicted or controlled by any institution. The narrative of this revolution is the event itself and our re-telling is a gesture of care, our own democratic assistance.
Schraeder & Redissi, ’11 Schraeder is Fulbright lecturer at U. of Tunis and Prof Poli Sci at Loyola Chicago along with Redissi, a visiting scholar at Yale and Prof of Law at Tunis University, ’11 (“Ben Ali's Fall” Peter J. and Hamadi Redissi, Journal of Democracy, V22, N3, July 2011, pp. 5-19)
On 14 January 2011, what has become known as
Observation Two: Implications
Authoritarian Oppression will continue in Tunisia absent successful transitioning to democracy.
Larry Diamond, Stanford and CDDRL Director, ‘11 (Jan. 18, 2011 - CDDRL Op-ed, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://fsi.stanford.edu/news/2726http://fsi.stanford.edu/news/2726 Stanford’s Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law “Tunisia's uncertain transition”)
The toppling of a brutal, democratic playing field.
The U.S. has recognized the success and importance of the Jasmine Revolution, but it’s now crucial to put our money where our mouths are.Tunisia is on the brink, a re-emergence of authoritarian rule is possible, but Tunisia has exposed flaws in oppressive rule.
Lina Khatib, Stanford and CDDRL Program Manager, ‘11 (Jan. 17, 2011 - CDDRL Op-ed, Stanford’s Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://fsi.stanford.edu/news/tunisia_the_house_of_cards_20110117/http://fsi.stanford.edu/news/tunisia_the_house_of_cards_20110117/ “Tunisia: The House of Cards”)
Tunisia’s sanitized image was also
Our implications are about Tunisia—not only the courage of self-immolation in the face of oppression, but the resolution to provide assistance where it matters. Tunisia is a unique instance requiring democracy assistance and actually containing the potential to succeed. The message is about all authoritarianism. Dictators will face other forms of resistance, but the symbolic importance of long-term and sustained U.S. support for actions against oppression is crucial to everything we are and should be.
Carothers, expert on Democracy Assistance for decades, ‘11 (Jan. 21, Thomas, head of the Carnegie Endowment’s Democracy and Rule of Law Program. posted in Authoritarianism, Democracy Assistance, Elections, , Tunisia org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/tunisia-not-a-color-revolution-but-cold-comfort-for-autocrats/http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/tunisia-not-a-color-revolution-but-cold-comfort-for-autocrats/ Democracy Digest - org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.demdigest.net/bloghttp://www.demdigest.net/blog, “Tunisia: not a color revolution”, acsd 8-21-11-kdk)
With the label of “Jasmine”
Diamond continues in ‘95
(Diamond 95 Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy Larry, Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, December 1995, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990’s,” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm)http://www.wilsoncenter.org/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm)
This hardly exhausts the lists of threats
1AC —PLAN
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase the resources, training, and support needed to encourage free and fair elections, a vigorous civil society, political freedoms and access, and a constitutional platform for progress, with suggestions under the electoral system for some flexibility under Article 15 so as to only exclude former government parties that have not been supportive of or approved by the Council of Political Reform; to encourage tolerance for all political parties while codifying details of the electoral and legal systems.
Observation Three: Solvency
We keep the water flowing into the glass. Revolutions dry up without support.
Bowen, BBC Middle East Editor, ’11 (Jeremy, BBC, July 11, “Tunisia: Broken dreams six months after revolution” acsd 9-2-11, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14104682?print=true)http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14104682?print=true)
There is a lot to satirise… Elections have been postponed until October to allow new parties time to get ready.
Assisting the Tunisian revolution is a matter of principle, not just about removing a dictator, but about people asserting their own freedoms.
J. Ford, ’11 (Financial Times, September 2, 2011“Karama!” Review by Jonathan Ford org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/64c8c90e-d3db-11e0-bc6b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Woz7ubR6http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/64c8c90e-d3db-11e0-bc6b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Woz7ubR6, acsd 9-2-11)
What he remembered from his Reuters days
U.S. aid, in particular for democracy in the region, is an absolute necessity to have any internal effect on moderation-inducing behavior. In other words, we cannot predict what will and will not produce moderation—but that should not be our concern. We do know that U.S. aid went into the hands of autocratic rulers in the region so we have to reverse that hypocrisy on face, lest we really are aiding dictators as allies because we are a dictatorship. That is the status quo—we reverse.
Scwedler, Prof. Poli. Sci. @ U. Mass Amherst, ’11 (World Politics, April, v63 n2, Jilian, “Can Islamists Become Moderates?”)
To be sure, many of the studies
The possibility for democracy is upon us. Winners win.
Schraeder & Redissi, ’11 Schraeder is Fulbright lecturer at U. of Tunis and Prof Poli Sci at Loyola Chicago along with Redissi, a visiting scholar at Yale and Prof of Law at Tunis University, ’11 (“Ben Ali's Fall” Peter J. and Hamadi Redissi, Journal of Democracy, V22, N3, July 2011, pp. 5-19)
The real issue remains the electoral system.
Genuine assistance requires walking a thin tightrope. The potential for authentic and meaningful democracy is there. The Tunisian people are engaged, hopeful, and more than capable of building a new governing structure after decades of authoritarian rule and 23 years under Ben Ali. The problems arise just below the surface, however, as an “anti-Islamic” paranoia has resulted in major political mud-slinging and might unravel the entire movement. “Now is Key” would be an understatement.
Rachel Linn, '11 (11 August 2011, The Guardian (UK) “Tunisia must hold its nerve for democracy's sake,” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/11/tunisia-democracy-revolutionary-pluralismhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/11/tunisia-democracy-revolutionary-pluralism, acsd 8-30-11)
The idea of a revolution …could unravel quickly.
Bahrain Aff
Despite the inspiration of the Arab Spring, the U.S. has supported some revolutions and ignored others. This hypocrisy should end.
Observation One: INHERENCY: The U.S. is neglecting the movement in Bahrain
Fuller – Writer on Middle East affair for New York Times, ’11 (March 4, 2011 – Thomas “Bahrainis Fear the U.S. Isn’t Behind Their Fight for Democracy” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/world/middleeast/05bahrain.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=bahrain&st=cse)http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/world/middleeast/05bahrain.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=bahrain&st=cse)
MANAMA, Bahrain — As more than 100,000 protesters …..carrying sticks, axes and other weapons. Mark Landler contributed reporting from Washington.
Thus, it all comes down to Bahrain. It is arguably the most important part of the region in terms of the tenuous balance the Obama Administration is walking, the likelihood of conflict and escalation, and the need for democratic assistance that can push the regime to reform.
Hitlermann, Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, Sept. ’11 (Sept. 8, 11, CNN Global Public Sphere, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/washingtons-leverage-over-bahrain/http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/washingtons-leverage-over-bahrain/, acsed 9-11-11, By Joost R. Hiltermann, Foreign Affairs)
Ever since the Arab Spring began, Washington has been faced with the question of how to ease autocrats from power…..using pro-democracy forces within the regime, its supporters and the opposition to show the way.
Observation Two: The Advantage is Stability in Bahrain
Crisis scenarios are likely—the routes to conflict are numerous and cannot be understated. Confrontation is possible.
Mohammed Ayoob is a University Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Michigan State University and a writer for Foreign Policy Magazine. February 25 ‘11 (“Libya is important, but don’t forget Bahrain” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/25/libya_is_important_but_don_t_forgethttp://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/25/libya_is_important_but_don_t_forget _bahrain)While Bahrain and Kuwait have at times….nse of Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Moreover, conflict and discrimination are intensifying. The electoral politics in Bahrain are being deployed now to exclude certain sections of the population.
International Crisis Group, April 2011 (POPULAR PROTESTS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (III): THE BAHRAIN REVOLT / Middle East/North Africa Report N°105 org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain/105-popular-protests-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-iii-the-bahrain-revolt.aspx)http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain/105-popular-protests-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-iii-the-bahrain-revolt.aspx) [in Bahrain] SECTARIAN DISCRIMINATION:…. ave long resided in eastern Saudi Arab
Protests are leading to crackdowns and a state of emergency. The whole thing is on the brink of unraveling.Hasan Jamali : Associated Press Updated: Sept. 2, 2011 (The Protests 2011 org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/bahrain/index.html)Bahrainhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/bahrain/index.html)Bahrain is a small desert island kingdom in the Persian Gulf,... members of its royal family to ease its crackdown.
In addition, the perception of the 5th fleet’s presence in Bahrain is critical to protect oil shipping lanes, deter Iran, and stop piracy
Brad Knickerbocker ’11 [“US faces difficult situation in Bahrain, home to US Fifth Fleet”, Feb 19, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0219/US-faces-difficult-situation-in-Bahrain-home-to-US-Fifth-Fleethttp://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0219/US-faces-difficult-situation-in-Bahrain-home-to-US-Fifth-Fleet, CMR]
For years, the US has ….world oil markets."
The entire globe will be drawn in—flash-points for conflict are abundant and likely.
Ash Pemberton, February 27, 2011 (Green Left Weekly Magazine, Issue 870, Bahrain: “The regime must fall” org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.greenleft.org.au/node/46843)http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/46843)
More than 100,000 protesters packed…. the Persian Gulf,” Moqawama.org said on February 21.
Further, oil channels are at risk—the entire planet’s economy could suffer. The 5th fleet deters Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – cuts off global oil supply
Stratfor, ‘8 [“Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”, July 1, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.stratfor.com/node/119249/analysis/iran_threat_strait_hormuzhttp://www.stratfor.com/node/119249/analysis/iran_threat_strait_hormuz, CMR]
The U.S. Fifth Fleet ….of how it would play out.
And, even worse, Extinction could result becuae The Middle East is on the brink of a nuclear war
Blake ‘11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileakshttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks /8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East and Asia has given rise
Nuclear weapons heighten the risk of global conflict and extinction.
London ‘10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, org.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderorg.xwiki.gwt.dom.client.Element#placeholderhttp://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)
The coming storm in the Middle…. the tent collapses.
Fortunately, we offer the following plan.
The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its democracy assistance for Bahrain by:
1) Sending election monitors to Bahrain, emphasizing space for opposition groups to occupy seats and encouraging a solution to the gerrymandering structure currently in place.
2) Re-framing democracy assistance as a campaign to bolster freedom and encourage an open partnership for LEGITIMATE democratic groups according to Alex Lennon’s CSIS’ report.
Observation Three: We SOLVE
By helping resolve the gerrymandering issue and giving election monitoring to Bahrain, it would be inevitable that the Shiite opposition will have a majority in the lower parliament. That is sufficient to satisfy the opposition’s major demand of more political power and facilitate a change in policy that would result in satisfying the rest of their reasonable demands. Subsequently, causing the political atmosphere to calm down and stabilize the country. Stabile political atmosphere will help insure the stay of US fifth fleet in Bahrain, subsequently insuring the safety of region and deterring Iran from any aggressive move toward Bahraini government or the strait of Hormuz.
Alexander T.J. Lennon, March 2009 (“Democracy in U.S. Security Strategy: From Promotion to Support”, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC &INTERNATIONAL STUDIES “CSIS”)
The new approach, then, would be to MOVE a strategy with the following six programmatic elements, which revise our current approach (as it has evolved through the last four administrations) for supporting democracy abroad.
Most of our neg. arguments are adapted from ADI.