1
The aff can only go to groups working towards democracy
LAPPIN 10 1. visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the Joint EU-SEE program, 2. PhD Candidate Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies, University of Leuven, Belgium 3. Independent Democracy and Elections Assistance Consultant, 4. participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.
[Richard Lappin, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]
Democracy assistance can be most ….. groups and political parties.
B. that’s not the alawites
Vote neg:
1. Limits- infinite number of groups that aren’t moving to democracy
2. GROUND – the neg should get US backlash and democracy promotion bad arguments – their interpretation allows the aff to avoid the central issues of the debate.
2
Obama wins – Nate Silver and Intrade consensus
Huffington 3-20 [Ariana, creator of the Huffington Post, Sun Sentinel, Arianna Huffington: Obama's biggest opponent in 2012 is Obama, http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-03-20/news/fl-ahcol-obama-2012-huffington-0320-20120320_1_president-obama-campaign-obama-worn-out-dogmas]
As the seemingly endless GOP …….. long have strangled our politics."
The plan lets Romney win
Bennett 12 [John, writer for US News, “Four Reasons Why U.S. Military Intervention in #Syria is Unlikely” http://syrianfreedomls.tumblr.com/post/16259176216/four-reasons-why-u-s-military-intervention-in-syria]
Obama is unlikely to gamble …….. be far more hostile to the West than the secular Assad regime,” said Macgregor.
Reelection key to the CTBT
Schneidmiller 11 [Chris, writer for GSN, "Senate Decision Key to Future of Test Ban Treaty," Global Security Newswire, 7-18, http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20110714_9351.php]
The Obama administration is ………. remain frozen in place in Washington.
CTBT cooperation key to solve global proliferation and extinction
Granoff and Tyson 09 [Jonathan, president of the Global Security Initiative, Rhianna is a Sr Officer, “Achieving the Entry-Into-Force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: What UN Member States Can Do Now,” Global Security Initiative, April, http://www.gsinstitute.org/gsi/pubs/04_03_09_CTBT.pdf]
The treaty remains as important today as ever throughout …… upon which it depends.
GOP win flips the aff – they roll back aid to the Arab Spring and externally ruin heg
Jilani 12 [Written by Erum Jilani, Master in Public Administration candidate at the Harvard Kennedy School, The Republican Approach To Foreign Policy: Less Is More; The Republican Approach To Foreign Policy: Less Is More, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harvard-kennedy-school-democrats/gop-foreign-policy_b_1223382.html]
As President Obama's reelection campaign gears up, …… strains in the GOP. The future of American power is at stake.
3
Jackson Vanik will be repealed despite GOP opposition – key to Russian economic modernization
Sanati 3-19 [Cyrus, The biggest winners of a new Russia trade deal, http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/03/19/russia-trade/?section=money_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_topstories+%28Top+Stories%29]
FORTUNE -- On Capitol Hill last ………. WTO rules. Only time will tell.
The plan drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)
But it's not just politicos in Washington …… USAID operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.
Obama’s capital is key
Allison and Blackwill 11 [Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill October 2011 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard University Russia and U.S. National Interests: Why Should Americans Care…….. American policy toward Russia.
[Key to relations] Failure to repeal undermines US-Russia relations
Miller 11 [Jacqueline, senior associate, “The WTO and the Reset” EastWest Institute -- April 8 --http://www.ewi.info/wto-and-reset]
It took Barack Obama several ………U.S.-Russia relationship.
Relations solve nuclear war and turn the case
Allison and Blackwill 11 [Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School, Robert D. Blackwill, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 10-30, "10 Reasons Why Russia Still Matters"http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21469/10_reasons_why_russia_still_matters.html]
That central point is that Russia matters a …………. about “who cares?” ask them to identify nations that matter more to U.S. success, or failure, in advancing our national interests.
4
The Executive Board of the NED should vote to substantially increase its technical assistance to non-governmental organizations for democratic civil society support in Egypt.
Solves the case and avoids politics
Cohen & Küpçü 09 –Senior Research Fellows @ New America Foundation [Michael A. Cohen & Maria Figueroa Küpçü, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform,” New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute, April 2009, pg. http://www.newamerica.net/files/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf]
Traditionally, the National Endowment for Democracy and its ……. positive results and may serve as an additional and useful source of funding for local non-state actors. Pg. 15-16
5
Unified front is forcing Assad to agree to the Annan peace proposal – It will prevent the US from providing additional assistance to the opposition
CNN 3/27/12 [Catherine E. Shoichet, “Analysts: Timing, 'nothing to lose' are behind Syrian OK of Annan plan,” CNN, March 27, 2012 -- Updated 2341 GMT (0741 HKT), pg. http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/27/world/meast/syria-plan-analysts/]
(CNN) -- Facing growing global pressure over ……… Nations is carrying out a negotiation," Landis said.
Russia will oppose their political support
Daily Star 3/25/12 [Dmitry Zaks, “Annan seeks to shore up Russia backing on Syria,” March 25, 2012 11:22 AM, pg. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Mar-25/167904-annan-seeks-to-shore-up-russia-backing-on-syria.ashx#ixzz1q8CSXA1F
Russia has been watching with ……… lose everything it has in Syria," said Yusin.
Putin will backlash against the Annan mission
Rojansky 3/23/12 – Deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment. [Matthew Rojansky, “The Method to Putin's Syria Madness,” CNN, March 23, 2012, pg. http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/23/method-to-putin-s-syria-madness/a4ij]
Part of demonstrating Russia’s great ………, Putin is probably right.
Annan’s success is key to UN credibility – US must convince the opposition that Annan is the only answer
Adams 3/26/12 - Executive director of the Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect in New York [Simon Adams, “The Power of Coercive Nuance,” New York Times, March 26, 2012, pg. http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/03/26/stopping-assad-saving-syria/using-coercive-nuance-against-assad]
These are not easy questions. The world ……….. to arrest Syria’s descent into catastrophe.
UN creates a multilateral diplomatic framework. US support is key – Others will follow.
Moore 1/24/12 - Reader in International Relations @ King’s College [Jack Francis Xavier Moore, “How Valuable is Multilateral Diplomacy in a Post 9/11 World?,” World Outline, January 24, 2012, pg. http://worldoutline.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/how-valuable-is-multilateral-diplomacy-in-a-post-911-world/]
Clear indications of Washington’s …….. increasingly multipolar world.
Extinction
Farer & Sisk 10 – Dean of the School of International Studies @ University of Denver & Professor of international and comparative politics @ University of Denver [Tom Farer (Former president of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights of the Organization of American States (OAS), Former special assistant to the General Counsel of the Department of Defense, and Former senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) & Timothy D. Sisk (Director of the Center for Sustainable Development and International Peace (SDIP) and Associate fellow of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy), “Enhancing International Cooperation: Between History and Necessity,” Global Governance 16 (2010), 1–12]
Among scholars, practitioners……… a recognizable and morally tolerable form.
And, we turn the case. Annan is the best option available – Russia and Assad supports it and it is forcing opposition unity
Bloomberg 3/27/12 [By the Editors, “Syria Cease-Fire Deal Is Flawed, but U.S. Should Back It,” Mar 27, 2012 7:00 PM ET, pg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/syria-cease-fire-deal-is-flawed-but-u-s-should-back-it.html]
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on ……. Moscow, on the consequences of diplomatic failure.
Solvency
Turn---technical assistance fails and undermines local capacity.
Greenhill, 2006 [Romilly Greenhill is an expert in aid, debt and development finance issues. Prior to joining ODI, Romilly worked for 3 years for the UK's Department for International Development (DFID), leading the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI) and DFID's Transparency Guarantee. Romilly has also worked for ActionAid UK and ActionAid Cambodia, leading research and advocacy work on aid and debt, and undertaking capacity building for Cambodian NGOs. She worked as an economist for Jubilee Research at the New Economics Foundation and for the Ugandan Government as an ODI Fellow. “Real Aid: Making Technical Assistance Work”, http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/real_aid2.pdf]
Technical assistance – donor …… the aid system of the kind described in Chapter 1.
Turn—Spoilers—mediation INCREASES the risk of terror and violence on both sides—dissatisfied parties become desperate and lash out to protect their interest
DeRouen and Pospieszna, 2011 [Karl DeRouen Jr. The University of Alabama, USA Department of Political Science, Paulina Pospieszna1 University of Konstanz Department of Politics and Management Paulina.pospieszna@uni-konstanz.de “Mediation and Civil Wars Involving Terrorism” http://www.unige.ch/ses/spo/static/simonhug/ecpr/Mediation%20and%20Terrorism%20in%20Civil%20Wars%20Pospieszna%20and%20DeRouen%20ECPR%202011.pdf ]
The results are reported in Table1. …….. with the peace process and what it gives them.
Turn—Choosing Sides--The aff’s topical responsibility to support democracy in the dialogue and the US’s interest in stability means we would choose sides or lobby for specific outcomes—this makes the situation MUCH WORSE and makes war MUCH MORE LIKELY by wasting time and eroding trust—the Falkland Island War proves.
Bordeau, 2011 [Thomas E. Boudreau, Ph.D. Debra Truitt, M.A. Professor and Chair Conflict Analysis and Dispute Resolution Conflict Analysis and Dispute Resolution Salisbury University "I WANT NONE OF YOUR GIFTS!" A MOLIERE MEDIATION AND THE STUDY OF FAILURES IN THIRD PART INTERVENTION]
MAKING MATTERS MUCH WORSE: …….vividly demonstrates.
No Solvency--Empirics prove--Mediation of internal conflicts is DOOMED to failure
Jackson, 2005 [Richard, Lecturer in international security at the Centre for International Politics at the University of Manchester, UK. “Internal War, International Mediation, and Non-Official Diplomacy: Lessons from Mozambique”. The Journal of Conflict Studies http://journals.hil.unb.ca/index.php/jcs/article/view/194/338]
INTRODUCTION 1 International mediation in ………effectively deal with contemporary forms of conflict.3
Sectarianism Advantage
Saudi Arabia makes sectarianism inevitable – assumes Bahrain and Iraq internal link
Matthiesen 3/7 (Toby, a research fellow in Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at the University of Cambridge, “Saudi Arabia’s Shiite problem” Foreign Policy < http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/07/saudi_arabia_s_shiite_problem>)
The behavior of the Saudi leadership only allows the …… to dominate the Gulf, to the detriment of all.
No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)
Without the US presence, a second argument goes, ….. likely than outright warfare.
AT: Bioweapons
Deployment of bioweapons dramatically reduces their death toll.
Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)
Properly developed and deployed, ….. environmental and meteorological conditions.
Obama won’t retaliate --- he knows the costs.
Crowley ‘10 (Michael, Senior Editor the New Republic, “Obama and Nuclear Deterrence”, http://www.tnr.com/node/72263)
Others argue that the United States …… for that matter--would go through with it.
--AT: Russell
Russell concludes deterence solves – this matters because he cites the aff’s article at a later date and then refutes it
Russell, senior lecturer, National Security Affairs – Naval Postgraduate School, managing editor – Strategic Insights, December ‘9
(James A, “Extended Deterrence, Security Guarantees, and Nuclear Weapons: U.S. Strategic and Policy Conundrums in the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute) [footnote 26 included]
The build out of the U.S. military infrastructure …….. regimes hosting those forces.
Transition Advantage
US fails – No leverage
Hokayem 3/2/12 - Senior Fellow for Regional Security @ International Institute for Strategic Studies based out of the Middle East [Emile Hokayem, “Uncommon Ground: Will Syria follow Lebanon?,” CNN World, March 2nd, 2012 02:19 PM ET, pg. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/02/uncommon-ground-will-syria-follow-lebanon/?hpt=hp_t2]
Amar C. Bakshi: A viewer asks what the …. not campaigning for an intervention before - never lobbied U.S. interests and The Hill and others before that escalation.
**No spillover
Clawson 2/1/12 - Director of Research @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy [Patrick Clawson, “Post-Asad Syria: Opportunity or Quagmire?,” Strategic Forum, Feb 2012, pg. sectarian war http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4f4d4f131e288.pdf]he
Indeed, chaos in Syria would create a ….stability of its neighbors. Pg. 8
**No escalation
Landis 2/23/12 - Professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma [Joshua Landis, “Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime Is Likely to Survive to 2013,” Middle East Policy Council, February 23, 2012, pg. http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/syrian-uprising-2011-why-asad-regime-likely-survive-2013]
Saudi Arabia and …..not need a war with Syria.
Iran will not intervene to help Assad
Tepperman 3/8/12 - Managing editor of Foreign Affairs magazine. [Jonathan Tepperman, “The Perils of Piecemeal Intervention,” The New York Times, Published: March 8, 2012, pg. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/opinion/the-perils-of-piecemeal-intervention-in-syria.html?_r=3&ref=opinion
Nor would intervening worsen the …..fights that jeopardize that.
Iran will flip on Assad – They will not go down with a sinking ship
Clawson 2/1/12 - Director of Research @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy [Patrick Clawson, “Post-Asad Syria: Opportunity or Quagmire?,” Strategic Forum, Feb 2012, pg. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4f4d4f131e288.pdf]
If Asad’s fall seems …… “be accountable to his people’s legitimate demands.”38 Pg. 6-7
The regime is defection proof
Landis 2/23/12 - Professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma [Joshua Landis, “Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime Is Likely to Survive to 2013,” Middle East Policy Council, February 23, 2012, pg. http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/syrian-uprising-2011-why-asad-regime-likely-survive-2013]
The Asads tutored their …….. population is largely homogeneous.
AT: Heg
“Credibility” is irrelevant --- states will evaluate threats based off current capabilities and interests --- basically every academic study is on our side and you’ll only have evidence from think tankers and pundits.
Christopher Fettweis, Winter 2007-2008. Assistant professor of national security affairs in the National Security Decision Making Department at the U.S. Naval War College. “Credibility and the War on Terror,” Political Science Quarterly, 122.4.
The war in Vietnam marked the ………. measurable, and uniformly unhelpful ways.
Data disproves hegemony impacts
Fettweis, 11
Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO
It is perhaps worth noting that ……. their view on faith alone.
Hegemony doesn’t prevent war – its absence would have zero effect on international stability
Friedman 10 [Ben, research fellow in defense and homeland security, Cato. PhD candidate in political science, MIT, Military Restraint and Defense Savings, 20 July 2010, http://www.cato.org/testimony/ct-bf-07202010.html]
Another argument for high military ……., while providing no obvious benefit.
No transition wars
Buzan 11 [Barry, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, "The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture A World Order Without Superpowers Decentred Globalism," International Relations, 4-1, vol. 25 no. 1 3-25]
There are many reasons to think …….onger be an attempt to run a financially integrated global economy.
A2: Indo-Pak
Multiple factors prove
Mutti 9— Master’s degree in International Studies with a focus on South Asia, U Washington. BA in History, Knox College. over a decade of expertise covering on South Asia geopolitics, Contributing Editor to Demockracy journal (James, 1/5, Mumbai Misperceptions: War is Not Imminent, http://demockracy.com/four-reasons-why-the-mumbai-attacks-wont-result-in-a-nuclear-war/, AG)
Fearful of imminent war, the media has indulged …….. diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.
No indo-pak war
Turkish Weekly 6/28 (28 July 2011, India and Pakistan Pledge 'New Spirit of Cooperation', http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/120330/india-and-pakistan-pledge-39-new-spirit-of-cooperation-39-.html)
The foreign ministers of India and ……. nuclear confidence-building measures.
AT: Iran Heg
Iran won’t be agressive – empirics – they are rational, wouldn’t leak to terrorist, won’t be aggressive
Pillar April 12 (Paul, teaches in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and was the national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asisa from 2000 to 2005, “We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran” Washington Monthly < http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/marchapril_2012/features/we_can_live_with_a_nuclear_ira035772.php?page=5>)
What difference would ……. conventional wisdom suggests.
No Iran threat---their evidence is blinded by special interests
Zarrabi 11—conducted lectures and seminars on international affairs, particularly in relation to Iran, with focus on US/Iran issues. President, regional chapter of World Affairs Council of San Diego.Author of 2 books about Iran. (Kam, CRYING WOLF, AGAIN?, 9 June 2011, www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1118.html)
Another round of the annual ……….. of a compromise with regard to its Palestinian dilemmas.
