Aid now to Tunisia

State 2-25 (US Department of State, “Overview of U.S. Economic Assistance to Tunisia,” 2012, http://www.humanrights.gov/2012/02/27/overview-of-u-s-economic-assistance-to-tunisia/)

Since the Revolution, the United States has

AND

to submit for Board approval by December 2012.

Not for the plan

Business Week 11 (“Obama Says Tunisia an Inspiration for Spread of Democracy,” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-07/obama-says-tunisia-an-inspiration-for-spread-of-democracy.html)

Aid for Tunisia The U.S.

AND

, and political risk insurance, Clinton said.Also aid to Syria

Barnard 3-25 (Anne, Editor, “U.S. and Turkey to Step Up ‘Nonlethal’ Aid to Rebels in Syria,” NY Times, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/world/middleeast/us-and-turkey-to-step-up-nonlethal-aid-to-syrian-rebels.html)

Turkey and the United States plan to provide

AND

the opposition from the United States and others.

Fights over democracy assistance now

Rogin 3-27 (Josh, “Reid tries to push through Iran sanctions bill,” Foreign Policy, 3-27, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/27/reid_tries_to_push_through_iran_sanctions_bill)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-

AND

We can't afford to slow down the process."

Contention    : Solvency

They’d say yes – homegrown democracy is impossible. US assistance is decisive and aware of sensitivities

Allen 11 (Michael, Editor – Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: Home-Grown Revolution Needs Foreign Support,” Democracy Digest, 1-27, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/)

The turbulence has given rise to growing demands

AND

ruling parties, do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

SSR is unique – prefer mechanism-specific evidence

Sedra 11 (Mark, Senior Fellow – Centre for International Governance Innovation, “Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East,” United States Institute for Peace, November, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/SR_296.pdf)

SSR is not an ideologically neutral concept.

AND

the same fundamental things from their security systems.

SSR places human security over regime security – solves West’s credibility issue

Sedra 11 (Mark, Senior Fellow – Centre for International Governance Innovation, “Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East,” United States Institute for Peace, November, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/SR_296.pdf)

The Legacy of Western Assistance

For people in the MENA countries, the

AND

Western security, economic, and political interests.

Advantage    : is Tunisia Engagement

Middle East democracy inevitable – just a question of what type of democracy

Khouri 11 (Rami G., Director of the Issam Fares Institute of Public Policy and International Affairs – American University of Beirut, “Is a Democratic Middle East Inevitable?,” Near East Quarterly, 9-9, http://www.neareastquarterly.com/index.php/2011/09/09/rami-khouri-is-a-democratic-middle-east-inevitable/)

The reality is that most people in the

AND

will be some countries that do not democratise.

That plan retools US assistance – and causes pro-US democracies

Lightfoot 11 (Jeff, Associate Director of Program on International Security – Atlantic Council, “US Interests in Democratic Mideast,” Boston Globe, 2-23, /2011/02/23/us_interests_in_a_democratic_mideast/)

THE RECENT uprisings against authoritarian regimes in the

AND

policy than most American politicians have yet considered.

Tunisia is already making steps towards democracy – engagement sends a broader signal that wins public support – clarity is key

McInerney 11 (Stephen, Executive Director – Project of Middle East Democracy, “Islamist Victory in Tunisia Presents Opportunity for U.S. Engagement,” Fikra Forum, 11-8, http://fikraforum.org/?p=1685)

On October 23, Tunisia held the first

AND

U.S. cannot afford to miss.

Police reform is key – it’s a form of soft power and a key entry point for engagement

Sedra 11 (Mark, Senior Fellow – Centre for International Governance Innovation, “Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East,” United States Institute for Peace, November, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/SR_296.pdf)

It is not surprising that the police were

AND

of many fruitful entry points for international engagement.

Absent the plan, new democracies will be anti-US

Demo Digest 12 (Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s NGO raids signal ‘significant shift’ in democracy assistance,” 1-13, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/egypts-ngo-raids-signal-significant-shift-in-democracy-assistance/)

Democracy assistance is now highly contested terrain,

AND

smarter about the design and delivery of assistance.”

Two impacts –

First, economic collapse

Kaahin 11 (Dalmar, Ottawa-based Writer, “Democracy in Arab World—Far More Dangerous to U.S. than 9/11 Terror Attacks,” Somaliand Press, 2-5, http://somalilandpress.com/opdemocracy-in-arab-world%E2%80%94far-more-dangerous-to-u-s-than-911-terror-attacks-19975)

As the iron curtain collapsed in 1989 and

AND

worse than September 11, 2001 horrific attacks.

Extinction

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short

AND

small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

Second, hegemony

Street, 3/5/2011 (Paul - former visiting professor of United States History at Northern Illinois University, How Much Arab Democracy Can American Stand?, http://www.paulstreet.org/?p=330)

However much hatred it has  evoked in the

AND

, undermining fundamental principles of global dominance.”5

Specifcally – it undermines cooperation – jacks leadership

Zambelis, Autumn 2005 (Chris - researcher for Helios Global, Inc., The Strategic Implications of Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Middle East, Parameters, p. 95-97)

Given the populist credentials of Islamists, the

AND

stra- tegic significance in the 21st century.

Causes great power war

Kagan 3-14 (Robert – senior fellow of foreign policy at the Center on the United States and Europe, America Has Made the World Freer, Safer and Wealthier, p. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0314_us_power_kagan.aspx)

We take a lot for granted about the

AND

right before the American order came into being.

Those goes nuclear

Kagan 7 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History: International Rivalry and American Leadership”, Policy Review, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)

The jostling for status and influence among these

AND

turn draw the United States back in under unfavorable

Advantage     : China

China is rising and gaining influence in Africa and Tunisia is the test case. Only unconditional assistance efforts by the US can crowd out China

Gvosdev 3-2 (Nikolas, Faculty Member – US Naval War College and Frequent Foreign Policy Contributor and Former Editor – National Interest, “The Realist Prism: Don't Count China Out in Middle East,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11654/the-realist-prism-dont-count-china-out-in-middle-east)

The conventional wisdom in U.S.

AND

is better received than the United States expects.

Establishing democracy in North Africa sends a broader signal that acts as a brick wall against Chinese influence

Murray 11 (Eric, Writer – CA, “US Attempts at Countering Chinese Influence in Africa,” Current Analyst – Authoritative Analysis of Current Affairs of Africa, 10-10, http://www.currentanalyst.com/index.php/external-actors/164-us-attempts-at-countering-chinese-influence-in-africa)

The US and Growing Chinese Influence in Africa

AND

this is the problem of “soft power”.

Specifically – it provides a narrative that allows the US to directly counter Chinese influence

Kaplan 11 (Robert D., Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security and Correspondent – The Atlantic,  “The Middle East Crisis Has Just Begun,” Wall Street Journal, 3-26, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050204576218842399053176.html)

Despite the military drama unfolding in Libya,

AND

and social reform, not on regime change.

Tunisia acts a focal point for China’s broader Africa strategy

Li 6 (Lin, “China, Tunisia to strengthen co-op on African development,” Chinese Government’s Official Web Portal, 5-10, http://www.gov.cn/misc/2006-05/10/content_277572.htm)

China and Tunisia will work together to advance

AND

Vice-President Zeng visited Tunisia last year.

Chinese influence causes African failed states and Taiwan isolation

Brookes and Shin 6 (Peter, Director of the Asian Studies Center – Heritage, and Ji Hye, Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center – Heritage, “China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States,” The Heritage Foundation, 2-22, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states)

Amid growing concerns about the People's Republic of

AND

respect for human rights across the African continent.

Taiwan isolation causes a perceived legitimacy crisis

Brookes 5 (Peter, Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director of the Asian Studies Center – The Heritage Foundation, “China's Influence in the Western Hemisphere,” April 19, Heritage Lecture #873, http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/hl873.cfm)

One of China's tactics is an effort to

AND

state would be seriously undermined in Taipei's estimation.

That generates support for Taiwan proliferation – overwhelms your defense

Galante and Chen 6 (James and Shiuan-Ju, Center for Advanced Defense Studies. “Bubble Tea Diplomacy: The Nuclear Solution to Taiwan's International Recognition," Defense Concepts Serious August 2006 http://www.c4ads.org/files/cads_report_bteadiplo_aug06.pdf)

Taiwan’s unique status, denied the status of

AND

might engage in this new form of brinksmanship.

Taiwanese prolif causes war with China and allied prolif

Chanda 4 (Amit, Staff Writer – WMA, World Markets Analysis, 10-18, Lexis)

According to David Albright, president of the

AND

to rethink their own position on nuclear weapons.

China war causes extinction

Johnson 1 (Chalmers, President – Japan Policy Research Institute, The Nation, 4-14, Lexis)

China is another matter. No sane figure

AND

on China's borders have virtually no deterrent effect.

African failed states cause great power wars

Glick, 12/12/2007 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

AND

which flows through all countries of the region.

That goes nuclear.

Deutsch 2001 (Dr. Jeffery – founder at Rabid Tiger Project, Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol. 2, No. 7, 11-18, p. http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html)

The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear

AND

, and some people love to go fishing.

Chinese influence in Africa causes Congo deforestation

Alden and Alves 9 (Dr. Chris, Project Leader for the China in Africa Program – South African Institute of International Affairs, and Cristina, PhD Student – London School of Economics, “China and Africa’s Natural Resources: The Challenges and Implications for Development and Governance,” SAIIA, Occasional Paper 41, September, http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/China_and_Africa_s_Natural_Resources.pdf)

Traditional development partners are also concerned about the

AND

to prevent their governments from allowing further abuses.

Extinction

Dusky 8 (Lorraine, Contributing Editor – YI and Award-Winning Environmental Writer, “Champion of a Forest Sanctuary: Sally Jewell Coxe”, Yoga International, May / June, http://www.himalayaninstitute.org/yi/Article.aspx?i d=2834)

Coxe is founder and president of the Bonobo

AND

very air the world breathes depends on it.

Single issues don’t spillover

Clarke 11 (Ryan, “Maintaining Baseline Stability in China-U.S. Relations: Alliance Structures, Rethinking Flashpoints, and Identifying New Shared Interests,” EAI Working Paper No. 158, 9-16, http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/EWP158.pdf)

In recent years we have witnessed an explosion

AND

analyses in Asia as well as the West.

Alt causes

Bader 12 (Jeffrey A., John C. Whitehead Senior Fellow in International Diplomacy, Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, “China and the United States: Nixon's Legacy after 40 Years,” Brookings, 2-23, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0223_china_nixon_bader.aspx)

The common interests on which Nixon and Mao

AND

signs of leading, to conflict between us.

“Its” means “associated in some way” – control is not required

CED 98 (Collin English Dictionary, p 817)

Its – of, belong to, or associated in some way with it.

No solvency – lack of resources and CP causes political infighting -- makes consensus impossible

Panarelli, 2/16/2010 (Liz – senior program assistant at the United States Institute of Peace, Local Ownership of Security Sector Reform, United States Institute of Peace Brief, Summary of USIP’s Security Sector Reform Working Group – included Timothy Donais – editor of Local Ownership and Security Sector Reform, Adedeji Ebo – chief of the SSR Unit at the United Nations, Marc Cohen – co-author of Protect and Serve or Train and Equip?, Aleisha Amusch – lead SSR researcher at the Pearson Peacekeeping Centre in Canada, and Robert Perito – directs USIP’s Security Sector Governance Initiative, p. 2-3)

One obstacle to promoting local ownership of SSR

AND

planning and design stages of reform programs unilaterally.

Counterplan alone fails – perm allows gradual transition to local ownership – solves best.

Von Carlowitz, March 2011 (Leopold – project leader for the German Center for International Peace Operations, Local Ownership in Practice: Justice System Reform in Kosovo and Liberia, Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, Occasional Paper No. 23, p. 2-3)

Local ownership is defined as a state in

AND

and negative inputs on the reform process.18

The plan alone solves – it incorporates local views

Kumar, August 2005 (Krishna – senior social scientist with the Center for Development Information and Evaluation of the United States Agency for International Development, Reflections on International Political Party Assistance, Democratziation, Vol. 12, No. 4, p. 518)

Related to the above problem is the question

AND

on an assessment of local needs and capabilities.

Alt fails – can’t translate theory into practice AND no spillover

Chandler 10 (David, Professor of International Relations – University of Westminster, “What Do We Do When We Critique Liberalism?: The Uncritical Critique of ‘Liberal Peace’,” Millennium Conference, 10-17, http://www.davidchandler.org/pdf/papers/Millennium%20Liberal%20Peace.pdf)

It would seem that at the core of

AND                            

of a critical alternative embedded in these approaches.

Method focus causes endless paradigm wars

Wendt 98 (Alexander, Professor of International Security – Ohio State University, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association)

As a community, we in the academic

AND

one-sided, intolerant caricatures of science.

Our scholarship is good – narratives about the Arab spring are self-correcting and moving away from Orientalism.

Rushworth 12 (Philip, Graduate – London School of Economics and Political Science, “Orientalism Revisited,” Al-bab, 2-23, )

Evidence for the possibility of plausible representations of

AND

challenge Orientalism by conveying the complexity of events.

We have the best epistemology – critical academia is always wrong and gets shut out by policy elites

Kramer 1 (Dr. Martin, Editor – Middle East Quarterly, Former Director – Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, Doctorate in Middle Easter Studies – Princeton University, Visiting Professor – University of Chicago, and Fellow – Woodrow Wilson International Center, “Ivory Towers on Sand: The Failure of Middle Eastern Studies in America,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, No 58, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/IvoryTowers.pdf)

Only now have hesitant voices been raised from

AND

, and what might be done about it.

[Continues]

While the professors “faked it,” the

AND

turned out, were not so easily appeased.

No impact – threat construction isn’t sufficient to cause wars

Kaufman 9 (Stuart J., Professor of Political Science and International Relations – University of Delaware, “Narratives and Symbols in Violent Mobilization: The Palestinian-Israeli Case,” Security Studies, 18(3), 400 – 434)

Even when hostile narratives, group fears,

AND

, chauvinist mobilization, and a security dilemma.

Representations don’t influence reality

Tuathail 96 (Gearoid, Department of Geography – Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Political Geography, 15(6-7), p. 664)

While theoretical debates at academic conferences are important

AND

to the patterned mess that is  human history.

Military training is security-driven – causes bad training

Keller 10 (Dennis E., Retired Colonel – US Army, Faculty Instructor – US Army War College, “U.S. Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-worst Option to Fill the U.S. Capacity Gap,” PKSOI Papers, 8-24, )

As a result, the U.S                                     

AND

though even then expectations must be kept realistic.

Private contracts don’t SSR – minimal oversight and no capacity—prefer comparative evidence

Keller 10 (Dennis E., Retired Colonel – US Army, Faculty Instructor – US Army War College, “U.S. Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-worst Option to Fill the U.S. Capacity Gap,” PKSOI Papers, 8-24, )

At first glance, it would seem that

AND

capacity to manage and conduct foreign police training.

Congress and State department key to coordination

Ladwig 7 (Walter, PhD Candidate in International Relations – Merton College, University of Oxford “Training Foreign Police: A Missing Aspect of U.S. Security Assistance to Counterinsurgency,” Comparative Strategy, 26(4), July, 285-293, http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Police%20and%20COIN.pdf)

Implementing a coherent centralized capacity to train foreign

AND

in the United States’ current counterinsurgency assistance capability.

Without it, support is ad hoc

Ladwig 7 (Walter, PhD Candidate in International Relations – Merton College, University of Oxford “Training Foreign Police: A Missing Aspect of U.S. Security Assistance to Counterinsurgency,” Comparative Strategy, 26(4), July, 285-293, http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Police%20and%20COIN.pdf)

Domestic police are one of the most important

AND

to tip them off to insurgent activity.”3

Obama’s key to signal US commitment – vital internal link to relations

Khatib 11 (Lina, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, “The Arab Spring Casts Obama as United States Public Diplomacy Messenger”, August 25, http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/newswire/cpdblog_detail/the_arab_spring_casts_obama_as_united_states_public_diplomacy_messenger/)

Why is it that Obama has become the

AND

falling on deaf ears in the Arab world.

Infrastructure collapse inevitable --- not enough assistance

Donohue, 3/30/2012 (Thomas – president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Wise Investments in Infrastructure can enhance America’s Dream, Oregon Live, p. http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/03/pro.html)

But in the years since, we've failed

AND

economy, create jobs, and increase productivity.

Winners win.

Halloran 10 (Liz, Reporter – NPR, “For Obama, What A Difference A Week Made”, National Public Radio, 4-6, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125594396)

Amazing what a win in a major legislative

AND

now suggest is a losing issue for them.

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant

Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But personality is not a solid foundation

AND

. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

-- Turn – GOP likes the plan

Schaefer 3-5 (Brett, Jay Kingham Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs – Heritage Foundation, “More ‘Conservative’ Foreign Aid?,” National Review, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/292548/more-conservative-foreign-aid-brett-schaefer)

Growth in the international-affairs budget is

AND

or even the majority of the 150 Account.

Won’t pass, or it gets watered down

Corbin 3-28-12 (Kenneth, IT World, "Feds warn of cyber threats, seek expanded authority for DHS", http://www.itworld.com/security/263202/feds-warn-cyber-threats-seek-expanded-authority-dhs)

The Department of Homeland Security is at the

AND

Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.).

Partisan opposition

Chabrow 3/28/12 (Eric, Analyst @ GovInfo Security, "Vanishing Bipartisanship over Cybersec," http://www.govinfosecurity.com/blogs.php?postID=1229)

The war of words over the role of

AND

further evidence of the vanishing bipartisanship on cybersecurity.

-- No motive for cyber-terror

Green 2 (Joshua, Editor – Washington Monthly, “The Myth of Cyberterrorism”, Washington Monthly, November,

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0211.green.html#byline)

Despite all the media alarm about terrorists poised

AND

, to strike the old-fashioned way.

No spill over – orientalist representations are deeply embedded in public sphere. The alt is short-term and emboldens elites which causes cooption

Colla 3 (Elliott, Associate Professor of Arabic and Islamic Studies – Georgetown University, “Power, Knowledge, and Investment: United States Foreign Policy in the Middle East and the US Public Sphere,” Postcolonial Studies, 6(1), p. 113-121)

How might the arguments of Epic Encounters help

AND

better explain (and predict) political phenomena.

Their link evidence assumes offensive liberalism – the plan is defensive liberalism – avoids the impact

Miller 10 (Benjamin, Professor of International Relations at the School of Political Sciences – University of Haifa, “Contrasting Explanations for Peace: Realism vs. Liberalism in Europe and the Middle East,” Contemporary Security Policy, 31(1), p. 134-164)

Competing Liberal Conceptions of Peace and Security:

AND

and women groups, and so on.63

State Department – 1AC
Advantage     : State Department Diplomacy
US State Department diplomacy is militarized and collapsing – that makes crisis response ineffective
Prince 11 (Rob, Lecturer of International Studies – University of Denver's Korbel School of International Studies,
The Amilcar Notes – 9: Little Country – Big U.S. Embassy: Tunisia’s Place in U.S. Strategy Toward North Africa….,” Colorado Progressive Jewish News, 12-23, http://robertjprince.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/the-amilcar-notes-9-little-country-big-u-s-embassy-tunisias-place-in-u-s-strategy-toward-north-africagreb/)
The U.S. diplomatic community here
AND
events from Tunis  presents fewer risks. is.
Using the Department of State as the lead agency crowds out the DoD – that solves global misperceptions
Wallace 10 (Robert Daniel, Lieutenant Colonel – United States Army, “Whither State? The Institutional Politics of American Nation-building Policy,” Contemporary Security Policy, 31(1), April, p. 114-133)
To address these shortfalls, the United States
AND
come accidentally, but probably requires deliberate choices.
Tunisia key
Prince 11 (Rob, Lecturer of International Studies – University of Denver's Korbel School of International Studies, The Amilcar Notes – 9: Little Country – Big U.S. Embassy: Tunisia’s Place in U.S. Strategy Toward North Africa….,” Colorado Progressive Jewish News, 12-23, http://robertjprince.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/the-amilcar-notes-9-little-country-big-u-s-embassy-tunisias-place-in-u-s-strategy-toward-north-africagreb/)
8. Tunisia: The Qatar of the
AND
Italian influences (that have yielded very little).
That allows increased response times
Rubin 11 (Michael, Resident Scholar – AEI, “The US Should Not Fear Egypt Regime Change,” American Enterprise Institute, 1-28, http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/the-us-should-not-fear-egypt-regime-change/)
On Dec. 17, 2010, Mohamed
AND
going gets rough and the dictators get going.
Key to solve ethnic conflict and environmental collapse
Stringer 7 (Not Wire Character, Dr. Kevin D., Adjunct Professor of Security Studies – Baltic Defense College, Ph.D. in Political Science / International Relations – University of Zurich, MA in International Relations – Boston University, “Think Global, Act Local: Honorary Consuls in a Transforming Diplomatic World”, Discussion Papers in Diplomacy, 10-1, http:// www.corpoconsolarevenezia.it/documenti/clingendael-consoli-onorari-nov07.pdf)
Extending Consular Representation
Until recently, the consular element of national
AND
, especially in the economic fields of endeavor.
Ethnic conflicts are proliferating --- coordinated international response prevents escalation to global nuclear war
Crawford 9 (Dr. Beverley, Associate Director of the Institute of European Studies and Lecturer of International and Area Studies – University of California, Berkeley, “Ethnic Conflict in Georgia: What Lies Ahead”, 4-17, http://rpgp. berkeley.edu/node/87)
Ironically, at the same time that the
AND
global confrontation triggered by ethnic and sectarian conflicts.
Eco collapse causes global war and extinction --- international cooperation solves
Brauch 8 (Hans, Professor – Free University of Berlin and Fellow – Institute on Environment and Human Security, “From a State Centred Security Dilemma Towards a Human Centred Survival Dilemma”, 7-23, http://www.afes-press.de/html/WISC%20II,%20Brauch_paper_25.7.2008.pdf)
The Interaction Council, an organization of former
AND
demographic changes, and global energy demand. 3  

Economy – 1AC
Advantage     : Tunisia’s Economy
Tunisia’s economy is collapsing – lack of safety drives out investment and destroys the tourism industry – public perception is key
Ferris-Lay 3-4 (Claire, Deputy Editor – CEO Middle East, “People Feel 'Unsafe' After Arab Spring,” Arabian Business, 2012, http://www.arabianbusiness.com/people-feel-unsafe-after-arab-spring-448037.html)
Residents in several Arab countries affected by the
AND
more stable, countries,” noted the report.
Only security sector reform solves public perception – it reinforces the legitimacy of the system
Paciello 11 (Maria Cristina, Research Associate – Istituto Affari Internazionali and Lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development – La Sapienza University (Rome), “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition,” MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3, May, www.ceps.eu/ceps/download/5632)
As seen above, Tunisia is faced with
AND
but whose political intentions are not yet clear.
Now is key – investors are waiting Tunisia out. Stability will generate inward FDI
Arnold 12 (Tom, Contributing Editor – The National, “Tunisia Suffers as Investors Turn Wary after Revolution,” The National, 2-9, http://www.thenational.ae/featured-content/channel-page/business/middle-article-list/tunisia-suffers-as-investors-turn-wary-after-revolution)
Foreign direct investment in Tunisia fell by nearly
AND
$1.5bn of investment this year.
Tunisia’s economy is the poster child for EU-Mediterranean trade agreements
Schneider 11 (Moritz, Political Analyst Specialized in EU Affairs and Euro-Mediterranean Relations, “Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution Unmasks the EU’s Misguided Policy Approach in the Southern Backyard,” 1-20, EU-MED Relations Blog, http://eu-med.blogspot.com/2011/01/tunisias-jasmine-revolution-unmasks-eus.html)
When the riots peaked in the beginning of
AND
, no consequences from the EU have followed.
That spills over to energy trading and causes energy diversification
Rubino 11 (Alessandro, IERN Coordinator – Florence School of Regulation, “A Mediterranean Electricity Co-operation Strategy. Vision and Rationale.” Fourth Annual Conference on Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, 11-25, http://www.crninet.com/2011/a3d.pdf)
4. Establish a Energy free trade area
AND
national environment for a sector specific policy area.
Solves dependence on Russia natural gas
Hadfield 9 (Dr. Amelia, Lecturer in European International Relations – University of Kent, Senior Research Fellow – Institute for European Studies, “The New Politics of North Africa-EU Energy Trade,”” University of Kent Energy Analysis Group, 10-16, http://www.kent.ac.uk/politics/carc/research/15081_161009hadfield.pdf)
The EU’s own energy profile has forced it
AND
thanks to the natural assets of their geography.
Nuclear war
Karlin 10/23/2009 (Anatoly – San Francisco based independent writer, Sublime Strategic Report #10, p. http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/)
In addition to the manifold soft power tools
AND
deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.
Independently – diversification’s key to Ukrainian stability
Cohen 9 (Ariel, Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies – Heritage Foundation, “Russia’s Gas War”, Washington Times, 1-13, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/13/russias-gas-war/)
The crisis is about more than gas,
AND
of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.
Nuclear war
Kingston 9 (Brian, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs – CIFP, “Ukraine: A Risk Assessment Report”, February, http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/app/serve.php/1214.pdf)
Economics: Ukraine suffers catastrophic economic collapse during
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least the drawing in of many other countries. 

China – New Hydro Carbons Impact
Scenario    : is Hydrocarbons
Chinese access allows sole access of African hydrocarbons
Brookes and Shin 6 (Peter, Director of the Asian Studies Center – Heritage, and Ji Hye, Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center – Heritage, “China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States,” The Heritage Foundation, 2-22, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states)
The Quest for Natural Resources For the past
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a position to impose upon them.[13]
Hydro-carbon access is key to US military posture and hegemony
Bajrektarevic 12 (Anis H., Editorial Member – Geopolitics of Energy and Chairperson – International Law and Global Politics Studies, “Of Mice and MENA,” 3-6, http://www.cogo-news.eu/news_Of-mice-and-MENA_1685.html)
Nevertheless, the announced reductions of the American
AND
) modernization which is defensive, restrictiveand reactive.
Nuclear war
Kagan 7 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History: International Rivalry and American Leadership”, Policy Review, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)

The jostling for status and influence among these
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turn draw the United States back in under unfavorable