Advantage    : is Tunisia Engagement

Middle East democracy inevitable – just a question of what type of democracy

Khouri 11 (Rami G., Director of the Issam Fares Institute of Public Policy and International Affairs – American University of Beirut, “Is a Democratic Middle East Inevitable?,” Near East Quarterly, 9-9, http://www.neareastquarterly.com/index.php/2011/09/09/rami-khouri-is-a-democratic-middle-east-inevitable/)

The reality is that most people in the

AND

will be some countries that do not democratise.

That plan retools US assistance – and causes pro-US democracies

Lightfoot 11 (Jeff, Associate Director of Program on International Security – Atlantic Council, “US Interests in Democratic Mideast,” Boston Globe, 2-23, http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles /2011/02/23/us_interests_in_a_democratic_mideast/)

THE RECENT uprisings against authoritarian regimes in the

AND

policy than most American politicians have yet considered.

Tunisia is already making steps towards democracy – engagement sends a broader signal that wins public support – clarity is key

McInerney 11 (Stephen, Executive Director – Project of Middle East Democracy, “Islamist Victory in Tunisia Presents Opportunity for U.S. Engagement,” Fikra Forum, 11-8, http://fikraforum.org/?p=1685)

On October 23, Tunisia held the first

AND

U.S. cannot afford to miss.

Police reform is key – it’s a form of soft power and a key entry point for engagement

Sedra 11 (Mark, Senior Fellow – Centre for International Governance Innovation, “Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East,” United States Institute for Peace, November, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/SR_296.pdf)

It is not surprising that the police were

AND

of many fruitful entry points for international engagement.

Absent the plan, new democracies will be anti-US

Demo Digest 12 (Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s NGO raids signal ‘significant shift’ in democracy assistance,” 1-13, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/egypts-ngo-raids-signal-significant-shift-in-democracy-assistance/)

Democracy assistance is now highly contested terrain,

AND

smarter about the design and delivery of assistance.”

Two impacts –

First, economic collapse

Kaahin 11 (Dalmar, Ottawa-based Writer, “Democracy in Arab World—Far More Dangerous to U.S. than 9/11 Terror Attacks,” Somaliand Press, 2-5, http://somalilandpress.com/opdemocracy-in-arab-world%E2%80%94far-more-dangerous-to-u-s-than-911-terror-attacks-19975)

As the iron curtain collapsed in 1989 and

AND

worse than September 11, 2001 horrific attacks.

Extinction

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short

AND

small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

Second, hegemony

Street, 3/5/2011 (Paul - former visiting professor of United States History at Northern Illinois University, How Much Arab Democracy Can American Stand?, http://www.paulstreet.org/?p=330)

However much hatred it has  evoked in the

AND

, undermining fundamental principles of global dominance.”5

Specifcally – it undermines cooperation – jacks leadership

Zambelis, Autumn 2005 (Chris - researcher for Helios Global, Inc., The Strategic Implications of Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Middle East, Parameters, p. 95-97)

Given the populist credentials of Islamists, the

AND

stra- tegic significance in the 21st century.

Causes great power war

Kagan 3-14 (Robert – senior fellow of foreign policy at the Center on the United States and Europe, America Has Made the World Freer, Safer and Wealthier, p. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0314_us_power_kagan.aspx)

We take a lot for granted about the

AND

right before the American order came into being.

Those wars go nuclear

Kagan 7 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History: International Rivalry and American Leadership”, Policy Review, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)

The jostling for status and influence among these

AND

turn draw the United States back in under unfavorable

Advantage     : is terrorism

Al-Qaeda’s North Africa branch, or AQIM, is gaining influence – that makes terrorism inevitable. Community engagement is key

Gunaratna 1-30 (Rohan, Professor and Head of International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) – Rajaratnam School of International Studies of Nanyang Technological University, “Terrorism Outlook In 2012: The Threat Continues – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, http://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-terrorism-outlook-in-2012-the-threat-continues-analysis/)

THE YEAR 2012 will be a crucial year

AND

strategies are also essential to reduce the threat.

AQIM will use nukes – they have the capability

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11 (“After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat”, 5-13-2011, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t)

The evolving threat. While Al Qaeda's anti

AND

priority must be securing this potential source material.

And they can deliver

Allison 2 (Graham – professor of government and former director of the Belfer Center at Harvard University, and Andrei Kokoshin – member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, The New Containment, The National Interest, p. lexis)

As Robert Walpole, a National Intelligence Officer

AND

be able to smuggle in a nuclear bomb."

Terrorism causes retaliation that sparks global nuclear war and extinction.

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand –  Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33(7), July)

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

AND

might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Even if they don’t use nukes – they’ll use CBWs

Waithe 11 (Pierre, trained and certified in both the U.S. and Canada as a emergency responder to hazardous materials and CBRN, Writer – Digital Journalist, “The Unconventional Revenge of al-Qaida,” Digital Journal, 9-16, http://digitaljournal.com/article/311334)

A month after Bin Laden's death, Dr

AND

Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al Shabab.

Biological terrorism causes extinction

Ochs 2 (Richard, Member – Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons Must be Abolished Immediately, 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)

Of all the weapons of mass destruction,

AND

such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. 

Engagement in Tunisia is a test case for US diplomacy and counter-terrorism efforts

Business Wire 9 (Citing a Panel of Prominent Foreign Policy Experts*,“Why the Maghreb Matters – SPECIAL REPORT to Obama Administration Outlines Options for Preventing Next Foreign Policy Crisis Before it Happens,” BW, 4-2, http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20090402005371/en/Maghreb-Matters-%E2%80%93-SPECIAL-REPORT-Obama-Administration)

With attention focused on Afghanistan, Pakistan and

AND

stability, and economic opportunity in the Maghreb.”

[*Including but not limited to: Yonah Alexander, Director of International Center of Terrorism Studies – Potomac Institute, Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies – Georgetown University, and Stuart Eizastat, Former White House Foreign Policy Advisor]

The plan solves – police training causes civilian contact

Ladwig 7 (Walter, PhD Candidate in International Relations – Merton College, University of Oxford “Training Foreign Police: A Missing Aspect of U.S. Security Assistance to Counterinsurgency,” Comparative Strategy, 26(4), July, 285-293, http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Police%20and%20COIN.pdf)

In prosecuting what has come to be known

AND

the public when carrying out internal security duties.

Advantage     : China

China is rising and gaining influence in Africa and Tunisia is the test case. Only unconditional assistance efforts by the US can crowd out China

Gvosdev 3-2 (Nikolas, Faculty Member – US Naval War College and Frequent Foreign Policy Contributor and Former Editor – National Interest, “The Realist Prism: Don't Count China Out in Middle East,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11654/the-realist-prism-dont-count-china-out-in-middle-east)

The conventional wisdom in U.S.

AND

is better received than the United States expects.

Establishing democracy in North Africa sends a broader signal that acts as a brick wall against Chinese influence

Murray 11 (Eric, Writer – CA, “US Attempts at Countering Chinese Influence in Africa,” Current Analyst – Authoritative Analysis of Current Affairs of Africa, 10-10, http://www.currentanalyst.com/index.php/external-actors/164-us-attempts-at-countering-chinese-influence-in-africa)

The US and Growing Chinese Influence in Africa

AND

this is the problem of “soft power”.

Specifically – it provides a narrative that allows the US to directly counter Chinese influence

Kaplan 11 (Robert D., Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security and Correspondent – The Atlantic,  “The Middle East Crisis Has Just Begun,” Wall Street Journal, 3-26, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050204576218842399053176.html)

Despite the military drama unfolding in Libya,

AND

and social reform, not on regime change.

Tunisia acts a focal point for China’s broader Africa strategy

Li 6 (Lin, “China, Tunisia to strengthen co-op on African development,” Chinese Government’s Official Web Portal, 5-10, http://www.gov.cn/misc/2006-05/10/content_277572.htm)

China and Tunisia will work together to advance

AND

Vice-President Zeng visited Tunisia last year.

Chinese influence in Africa causes Congo deforestation

Alden and Alves 9 (Dr. Chris, Project Leader for the China in Africa Program – South African Institute of International Affairs, and Cristina, PhD Student – London School of Economics, “China and Africa’s Natural Resources: The Challenges and Implications for Development and Governance,” SAIIA, Occasional Paper 41, September, http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/China_and_Africa_s_Natural_Resources.pdf)

Traditional development partners are also concerned about the

AND

to prevent their governments from allowing further abuses.

Extinction

Dusky 8 (Lorraine, Contributing Editor – YI and Award-Winning Environmental Writer, “Champion of a Forest Sanctuary: Sally Jewell Coxe”, Yoga International, May / June, http://www.himalayaninstitute.org/yi/Article.aspx?i d=2834)

Coxe is founder and president of the Bonobo

AND

very air the world breathes depends on it.

Chinese influence causes African failed states and Taiwan isolation

Brookes and Shin 6 (Peter, Director of the Asian Studies Center – Heritage, and Ji Hye, Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center – Heritage, “China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States,” The Heritage Foundation, 2-22, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states)

Amid growing concerns about the People's Republic of

AND

respect for human rights across the African continent.

Taiwan isolation causes a perceived legitimacy crisis

Brookes 5 (Peter, Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director of the Asian Studies Center – The Heritage Foundation, “China's Influence in the Western Hemisphere,” April 19, Heritage Lecture #873, http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/hl873.cfm)

One of China's tactics is an effort to

AND

state would be seriously undermined in Taipei's estimation.

That generates support for Taiwan proliferation – overwhelms your defense

Galante and Chen 6 (James and Shiuan-Ju, Center for Advanced Defense Studies. “Bubble Tea Diplomacy: The Nuclear Solution to Taiwan's International Recognition," Defense Concepts Serious August 2006 http://www.c4ads.org/files/cads_report_bteadiplo_aug06.pdf)

Taiwan’s unique status, denied the status of

AND

might engage in this new form of brinksmanship.

Taiwanese prolif causes war with China and allied prolif

Chanda 4 (Amit, Staff Writer – WMA, World Markets Analysis, 10-18, Lexis)

According to David Albright, president of the

AND

to rethink their own position on nuclear weapons.

China war causes extinction

Johnson 1 (Chalmers, President – Japan Policy Research Institute, The Nation, 4-14, Lexis)

China is another matter. No sane figure

AND

on China's borders have virtually no deterrent effect.

African failed states cause great power wars

Glick, 12/12/2007 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

AND

which flows through all countries of the region.

That goes nuclear.

Deutsch 2001 (Dr. Jeffery – founder at Rabid Tiger Project, Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol. 2, No. 7, 11-18, p. http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html)

The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear

AND

, and some people love to go fishing. 

The plan solves – police training causes civilian contact

Ladwig 7 (Walter, PhD Candidate in International Relations – Merton College, University of Oxford “Training Foreign Police: A Missing Aspect of U.S. Security Assistance to Counterinsurgency,” Comparative Strategy, 26(4), July, 285-293, http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Police%20and%20COIN.pdf)

In prosecuting what has come to be known

AND

the public when carrying out internal security duties.

-- Can’t solve China –

Only the US can counter them

Grygiel 11 (Jakub, Senior Fellow – Center for European Policy Analysis, and the Associate Professor of International Relations – Johns Hopkins, “Democracy Promotion – a Geostrategic Contest,” Democracy Digest, 10-6, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/democracy-promotion-a-geostrategic-contest/)

Finally, we cannot outsource democracy promotion to

AND

the potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.

-- Can’t solve police training –

Only US has expertise – that’s key to capacity-building and sustainable solvency

Buchanan 11 (John, Senior Police Advisor – USAID, “A Field Guide for USAID Democracy and Governance Officers: Assistance to Civilian Law Enforcement in Developing Countries,” USAID, January, http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/democracy_and_governance/publications/pdfs/AFieldGuideforUSAIDDemocracyGovernance%20Officers.pdf)

USAID, the Interagency Environment and Civilian Police

AND

new skills will be disseminated throughout the agency.

Specifically – that’s key to problem-identification – only way to have competency and solvency

Buchanan 11 (John, Senior Police Advisor – USAID, “A Field Guide for USAID Democracy and Governance Officers: Assistance to Civilian Law Enforcement in Developing Countries,” USAID, January, http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/democracy_and_governance/publications/pdfs/AFieldGuideforUSAIDDemocracyGovernance%20Officers.pdf)

For most civilian police assistance projects that involve

assistance to civilian police can mean more confidence in their ability.

International fiat is a voter – its infinite and unpredictable, and no actor has power to decide between two international actors. That undermines decisionmaking and logic.

-- NATO strong and resilient

Trueblood 4 (Tad, National Security Analyst and Fmr Military Officer with 20 Years Experience, “Not Your Father’s NATO”, 4-1, http://www.southernutah.com/Articles/World_Affairs/Document.2004-04-01.2317)

Not your father's NATO Last Updated: 2004

AND

, it’s sure not your father’s NATO anymore.

Collapse in US/Russia relations coming now - differences over Syria, Iran, Putin re-election, lingering Cold War-era mistrust

LaFranchi 3/3/12 (Howard, Staff @ Christian Science Monitor, "A cold-war chill? US-Russia relations falter over Libya and Syria," http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/475661)

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton doffed her

AND

try to do in the UN on Iran."

Jackson-Vanik repeal won’t pass – GOP won’t give Obama a victory before the election AND they oppose repeal due to human rights concerns

Today's Zaman 3/27/12 ("US trade upgrade may come with sting for Russia," http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=275585)

The administration first wants to deal with trade

AND

among lawmakers critical of Russia's human rights record.

Winners win.

Halloran 10 (Liz, Reporter – NPR, “For Obama, What A Difference A Week Made”, National Public Radio, 4-6, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125594396)

Amazing what a win in a major legislative

AND

now suggest is a losing issue for them.

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant

Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But personality is not a solid foundation

AND

. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

-- Turn – GOP likes the plan

Schaefer 3-5 (Brett, Jay Kingham Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs – Heritage Foundation, “More ‘Conservative’ Foreign Aid?,” National Review, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/292548/more-conservative-foreign-aid-brett-schaefer)

Growth in the international-affairs budget is

AND

or even the majority of the 150 Account.

That’s key to the agenda

Barnes 8 (James A., Political Correspondent, National Journal, 12-13, Lexis)

A dominant feature of Washington since at least

AND

if Obama's first congressional meeting was not bipartisan."

-- Regional cooperation will prevent escalation

Innocent and Carpenter 9 (Malou, Foreign Policy Analyst – Cato Institute and Ted Galen, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies – Cato Institute, “Escaping the Graveyard of Empires: A Strategy to Exist Afghanistan”, http://www.cato.org/pubs/wtpapers/escaping-graveyard-empires-strategy-exit-afghanistan.pdf)

Additionally, regional stakeholders, especially Russia and

AND

engaging stakeholders may lead to tighter regional security.

-- Afghan stability resilient

Robichaud 7 (Carl, Program Officer – The Century Foundation, “Buying Time in Afghanistan”, World Policy Journal, 11-8, http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/RobichaudWPJ.pdf)

Afghanistan is increasingly seen as Iraq in slow

AND

many of their constituents believe they already have.

No link – plan uses the “150” account

Ladwig 7 (Walter, PhD Candidate in International Relations – Merton College, University of Oxford “Training Foreign Police: A Missing Aspect of U.S. Security Assistance to Counterinsurgency,” Comparative Strategy, 26(4), July, 285-293, http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Police%20and%20COIN.pdf)

The necessity of ensuring that foreign law-

AND

in the United States’ current counterinsurgency assistance capability.

It’s exempt from spending caps – so cuts don’t occur

GLC 11 (US Global Leadership Coalition, http://www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/USGLC-IAB-Budge-Update-12-21-11-FINAL.pdf)

On December 17, Congress cleared for the

AND

freeing up additional funding under the base budget.