2AC Case

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 1 | Opponent: Whitman | Judge: Sarah Partlow
  
  

• KENTUCKY - R5 - AFF VS GONZAGA KM
  Higher risk of Indonesian terrorism after Osama’s death
  Hookway, 5-2-’11 (James Hookway and Eric Bellman, “Southeast Asia Braces for Islamist Reprisals” http://www.pvtr.org/pdf/ICPVTRinNews/SoutheastAsiaBracesForIslamistReprisals.pdf)
  Government and security officials around Southeast Asia—
  AND
  S. killed Osama, but not radicalism."

  Most qualified studies prove the risk of Malaccan piracy is increasing
  Baird, Professor Queensland U of Tech, ’11 (Rachel, July 6, “Transnational security issues in the Asian maritime environment: responding to maritime piracy” Australian Journal of International Affairs, Taylor and Francis Online) *ReCAAP = The Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia
  Economic growth in the Asian region depends heavily
  AND
  global economic impact’ (Storey 2008: 111).

  MB will accept democracy assistance – they don’t fear being labeled as collaborators
  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, 10
  (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam_hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf)
  For their part, moderate Islamists in Western
  AND
  collaboration” have failed to erode Islamist popularity. 

  Say no arguments are hype – the MB is open to receiving US training
  Husain, Senior Fellow at CFR, 11
  (2/1, Egypt can bring in the Brotherhood, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/047884de-2e56-11e0-8733-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YmzQNOTS)
  To borrow a phrase … to a mythological Islamic state.

  KENTUCKY - R4 - AFF VS MSU GP

  Palestinians won’t get 9 yes votes – avoids US veto and diplomatic fallout
  Bloomberg 9/30
  (U.S. Economic Clout May Sink Palestinian Membership Quest at UN Council, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/u-s-economic-clout-may-sink-palestinian-membership-quest-at-un-council.html)
  Economics and political …, who was Africa’s longest-serving dictator.

  Enough no votes that the US can abstain and avoid a veto
  ABC News 9/19
  (US and allies scramble to prevent Palestinian bid for UN recognition, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/us-and-allies-scramble-to-prevent-palestinian-bid-for-un-recognition/)
  Should the Quartet initiative fail, the US
  AND
  have enough votes to force a US veto. 

  2) MB will accept democracy assistance – they don’t fear being labeled as collaborators
  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, 10
  (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam_hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf)
  For their part, moderate Islamists in Western
  AND
  collaboration” have failed to erode Islamist popularity. 

  5) Say no arguments are hype – the MB is open to receiving US training
  Husain, Senior Fellow at CFR, 11
  (2/1, Egypt can bring in the Brotherhood, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/047884de-2e56-11e0-8733-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YmzQNOTS)
  To borrow a phrase … to a mythological Islamic state.

  2) The MB is not a static party incapable of change – coalition building and stakeholder development ensure moderation
  Yacoubian, Special Advisor - Muslim World Initiative – U.S. Institute of Peace,  06
  ( “Democracy and Islamist Parties: The Arab Experience”,  http://www.scribd.com/doc/20777768/Democracy-islamist-parties-the-arab-experience)
  When trying to assess … in democratic reform.

  GSU - R7 - AFF VS MINNESOTA
  Evidence from bin Laden’s compound proves capability to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan
  Lake, Washinton Times, 5-5-’11 (Eli, “Evidence at bin Laden’s home raises nuclear concerns” http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/5/evidence-at-bin-ladens-home-raises-nuclear-concern/)
  Intelligence analysts are sifting through phone numbers and
  AND
  Wednesday by the anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks.

  Balance of power guarantees nuclear escalation
  Primakov, 09 [September, Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. This article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”]
  The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms
  AND
  does not completely rule out such a possibility.

  Egyptian government won’t oppose the plan
  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf)
  Assuming the political will is present, the
  AND
  other interests than would otherwise be the case.

  GSU - R5 - AFF VS UNLV
  Even if MB doesn’t dominate the election electoral bargaining gives them a majority
  Friend, Foreign Policy Research Institute, ’11 (Theodore, July, “The Arab Uprisings Of 2011: Ibn Khaldûn Encounters Civil Society” http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201107.friend.arabuprisings.html)
  Such powerful manifestation of Salafi opinion will affect
  AND
  president, is of course none at all.

  The Muslim Brotherhood will act aggressively towards Israel – political involvement alone won’t cause moderation
  Jerusalem Post, 8-29-’11 (“Egypt’s Brotherhood” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Article.aspx?ID=235916&R=R1)
  As Egyptian elections draw near, the Muslim
  AND
  does not repeat itself on our southern doorstep.

  Announcement of formal ties was left ambiguous and vague – failure to clarify the US position has caused MB reluctance to engage
  Al-Hayah, 7-15-’11 (“Al-Hayah Commentary Argues US Strategic Interests Govern US-Egyptian MB Talks” http://www.biyokulule.com/view_content.php?articleid=3674)
  However, despite the announcement that the contacts
  AND
  over the approach to dealing with political Islam.

  Other Islamic parties prove they’ll say yes – even if they say no it’ll just be occasional boycotting which still solves engagement
  Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace, ‘7 (Mona, August, “Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy” http://www.ikhwanweb.com/uploads/lib/AXRFDSS83DTR6KF.pdf)
  A number of broad strategic conclusions emerge from
  AND
  informal ties and dialogue continued in most cases.

  Democratic engagement with moderate Islamists key to check radical Salafists
  Al-Anani, Senior Fellow Al Ahram Foundation, ’10 (Khalil, March, “The Myth of Excluding Moderate Islamists in the Arab World” Brookings Saban Center for Middle East Policy, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/03_moderate_islamists_alahani/201003_moderate_islamists_alanani.pdf)
  The ultimate problem with U.S.
  AND
  and having a balanced relationship with Israel) .

  MB not already moderate now

  Aly, Director Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, ‘7 (Abdel, December, “Understanding the Muslim Brothers in Egypt” )
  A careful review of Egypt’s Muslim Brothers’ positions
   AND 
   incapable of producing moderate Muslims or Islamic Democrats.
  
  
  

  Trying to exclude the MB from politics only encourages radicalization

  Avşar, MS at Middle East Technical University, ‘8 (Esra, June, “The Transformation Of The Political Ideology And The Democracy Discourse Of The Muslim Brotherhood In Egypt”)
   Therefore, rather than discussing the Islamist’s modern 
   AND 
   radical and undemocratic ideologies within the Islamic current.
  
  

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC CP - EU

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 1 | Opponent: Whitman CM | Judge: Sarah Partlow
  
  

• C NeoEU has not framework for engagement the moderate Islamists

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam”)
   But such statements have not translated into changes
  AND 
   and vary widely based on individual states’ interests.
  
  
  

  EU won’t try to change the MB’s agenda, they’ll just observe

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam”)
  The U.S. and EU are 
   AND 
   policy” in case Islamists come to power.
  
  
  

  Permutation solves – US and EU should develop a common line approach

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam”)
   Nonetheless, the U.S. and 
   AND
   contexts, regional interests, and strategic objectives.
  
  
  

  EU can’t lead – seen as hypocritical in the Middle East and with Islam and doesn’t carry the international political weight of the US

  Ridzam, EU Ambassador, ‘7 (Datuk, May 6, “EU Can Use Past for Future Benefits” The New Straits Times, )
   While it is foremost a global economic player
   AND 
   even disinterested in the rest of the world.
  
  
  

  Europe doesn’t solve Hamas – the give increased support – opposite aims of the US

  Byman, Director Middle East Brookings, ’11 (Daniel, July, “The Challenge of Gaza: Policy Options and Broader Implications”)
  Hamas has been trying to cultivate its relationship 
   AND 
   support internationally, Israel’s stock naturally goes down.
  
  
  

  Europe won’t be able to influence the MB’s agenda

  Aspden, Journalist, ‘6 (Martin, February 20, “Talking to terrorists” New Statements, )
   Pressing for legalisation of the Brotherhood would be 
   AND
   actually achieve power in countries such as Egypt."
  
  
  

  EU can’t engage Muslim communities – no unified position, money, or global focus

  Nakhleh, Director of Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program at CIA, ’10 (Emile, October, “U.S.–EU Partnership and the Muslim World: How Transatlantic Cooperation Will Enhance Engagement” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, )
   Religious communities have emerged all over the world
   AND
   —Indonesia and Turkey—and possibly Morocco.
  
  
  

  Can’t solve --- EU is in disrepair and fatally flawed

  McKie, 11 (7/18/2011, Andrew, The Herald, “The European Union in its entirety is beyond repair,” Factiva, JMP)
   The crisis in 
   AND
   having. The rest is bull.
  
  
  

  Europe unlikely to tolerate cooperation with Islamism – historical bias towards secularization

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’11 (Shadi, August 18, “The Major Roadblock to Muslim Assimilation in Europe” The Atlantic,)
   While dutifully disavowing such groups, my leftish
  AND 
   of conservative Christians shape Republican policy in America).
  
  

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Politics - SKFTA

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 1 | Opponent: Whitman CM | Judge: Sarah Partlow
  
  

• 1Empirically no escalation – deterrence has prevented conflict for 60 years

  Kang, 10 – professor of international relations and business and director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California (12/31/10, David C., “Korea’s New Cold War,”, JMP)
  However, despite dueling artillery barrages and the 
   AND 
   matter how far it lies in the future.
  
  
  

  Jobs fight will kill SKFTA negotiations

  Kim, 9/6 --- senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in Washington, D.C. (9/6/2011, Sukhan, Joins.com, “Pushing the FTA to the finish line,” Factiva)
   President Obama seeks
   AND
   interests in many ways
  
  
  

  Not top of agenda – tax cuts first

  JoongAng Daily, 8/16 (“Obama puts domestic matters ahead of FTAs,” 8/16/2011, )
  The timing of when the U.S
   AND 
   and neighbors back to work,” he said.
  
  
  

  Obama weak politically now

  Blow, 9/9 (Charles M., “Rise of the Fallen?” , JMP)
  The man was on fire! President Obama 
   AND 
   the middle and ideally suited for getting dunked.
  
  
  

  Passing even controversial policies boosts Obama’s political capital

  Singer, 9 – Juris Doctorate candidate at Berkeley Law (Jonathon, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital,” 3/3/2009, )
   Despite the country's struggling economy and vocal opposition
  AND 
   rewarded by the American public as a result.
  
  
  

  SKFTA not key relations

  Lehrer 11-14 (Eli-, “America Tells G20: We’re Closed for Business”, Frum Frum, )
  America’s failure to 
   AND
   going to change.
  
  
  

  Not GOP support for TAA --- key to Obama submitting FTAs for a vote

  Bridges Weekly Trade News Digest, 9/7 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, “Trade Pacts, China Currency Legislation Could All be on the Table as US Congress Returns,” vol. 15, no. 29, , JMP)
   Major movement could be on the horizon for 
   AND 
   President values FTAs, or TAA, more.”
  
  
  

  Obama won’t push the plan

  McFaul, Professor PolSci Stanford, ‘5 (Michael, January 30, “What Democracy Assistance Is ... and Is Not” Hoover Institute, )
   Do these American democracy assistance groups carry out 
   AND
   same divide is present in many countries today.
  
  
  

  Political capital not key – empirically proven

  Edwards 3 (George C. Edwards, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M, former Director of the Center for Presidential Studies, Riding High in the Polls: George W. Bush and Public Opinion, )
  One of the perennial questions about presidential-
   AND 
   deference to a widely supported chief executive.44
  
  
  

  US supporting MB in Syria

  World Tribune, 8-17-’11 (“Report: U.S. favors Muslim Brotherhood over pro-democracy Syrian opposition” )
  The administration of President Barack Obama has selected 
   AND 
   represent a significant portion of the Syrian people."
  
  
  

  Democracy assistance push now kills polcap

  Democracy Digest - August 17, 2011, ‘Concerted effort’ by Egypt’s military to deny democrats assistance, 
  The current controversy over democracy assistance in Egypt 
   AND 
   to discourage the American government from giving it.”
  
  
  

  Obama has not even sent the FTAs to Congress for a vote

  Representative McCarthy, 9/6 (Kevin, 9/6/2011, Politico, “Politics of trade hurt job creation,” )
   Right now, there are three pending export 
   AND 
   has not sent them to Congress for consideration.
  
  
  

  Obama’s pc insufficient for passage

  Inside U.S. Trade, 8/19 (“WITH FTA PATH FORWARD STILL UNCLEAR, QUICK ACTION NEEDED IN THE FALL,” 8/19/2011, Vol. 29, No. 33, Factiva, JMP)
   This week, President Obama repeatedly called on 
   AND 
   a vote on TAA, according to observers.
  
  
  

  Pelosi’s demands will also jack it up

  Green, Japan chair at CSIS, 8/22 (Michael, 8/22/2011, “Threading the needle in Washington; The next wedge Obama may use against the Republicans is President Lee Myung-bak, who may visit Washington in the fall,” )
  However, there is still one other serious 
   AND 
   other pending trade agreements with Columbia and Panama.
  
  
  

  Democracy assistance bipartisan

  Phillips, Director of National Committee on American Foreign Policy, and Mitchell, International Politics Prof at Columbia, ‘8 (David and Lincoln, May, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance” American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol 30 Issue 3, p 156-175, InformaWorld)
   Democracy assistance has typically enjoyed broad bipartisan political 
   AND 
   briefing paper to candidates in the 2008 election.*
  
  
  

  Alliance relations strong now

  Denmark & Hosford, Dec 10 – Fellow and Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security (December 2010, Abraham M. Denmark and Zachary M. Hosford, Center for a New American Security, “ Securing South Korea: A Strategic Alliance for the 21st Century,” , JMP)
   Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance

  AND 
   to play a larger role providing regional security.

  
  

• KENTUCKY ROUND 5 - AFF VS GONZAGA KM
  Indonesia key to the future of Asian geopolitics and stability
  Shekhar, Research Associate School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University, ’11 (Vibhanshu, “Jakarta and Asian multipolarity” http://www.watershed.com.br/article/214/jakarta-and-asian-multipolarity.aspx)
  In this multi-polar Asia, Southeast
  AND
  integrative processes and relations among the continental powers.

  KENTUCKY ROUND 4 - AFF VS MSU GP

  North Korea poses zero nuclear threat
  Bandow Sr. Fellow Cato ‘9
  (Doug-, June 4, “North Korea: Paper Tiger”, http://www.campaignforliberty.com/article.php?view=100; Jacob)
  Another day, it must be another weapons
  AND
  , it can deter Kim Jong-il.

  SKFTA not key relations
  Lehrer 11-14 (Eli-, “America Tells G20: We’re Closed for Business”, Frum Frum, http://www.frumforum.com/america-tells-g20-were-closed-for-business)
  America’s failure to … isn’t going to change.

  US giving monetary support to Egypt now

  Kellerhals, 9-28-’11 (Merle, “Egypt: Clinton and Egypt's Amr Hold Crucial Bilateral Talks” http://allafrica.com/stories/201109290755.html)
  The United States fully supports the Egyptian people
  AND
  benefit from the opportunities that the changes bring.

  Obama won’t push the plan – 

   First – he’s only focusing on jobs

  Goldstein, 9/25 (David, 9/25/2011, “Obama conjures 'Give 'em hell Harry'” http://www.kansascity.com/2011/09/25/3165512/obama-conjures-give-em-hell-harry.html)
  Has President Barack Obama been channeling Harry Truman
  AND
  the latest CBS/New York Times poll.

  Second – he’s already backed away from engaging with the MB
  Mozgovaya, 6-30-’11 (Natasha, “Clinton: U.S. engagement of Muslim Brotherhood not new policy” http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/clinton-u-s-engagement-of-muslim-brotherhood-not-new-policy-1.370482)
  United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denied
  AND
  political system that we would like to see”.

  Third – president isn’t involved in democracy assistance
  McFaul, Professor PolSci Stanford, ‘5 (Michael, January 30, “What Democracy Assistance Is ... and Is Not” Hoover Institute, http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/7367)
  Do these American democracy assistance groups carry out
  AND
  same divide is present in many countries today.

  Gridlock blocking FTAs
  Liberto, 9/29 (Jennifer, 9/29/2011, “Trade deals held up by Washington gridlock,” http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/29/news/economy/trade_deals/?cnn=yes)
  WASHINGTON (CNNMoney)  Trade deals with
  AND
  deals done, no solution has appeared yet.

  Legislative win is key to boost Obama’s political clout and pass the agenda
  Cohn & Clift, 9/23 (Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift, “Obama cannot bypass Congress,” http://www.poconorecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110923/NEWS04/109230324/-1/news04)
  WASHINGTON — President Obama is traveling to several
  AND
  to see Obama getting them back on track.

  Fight coming over China currency bill next week
  Sargent, 9/29 (9/29/2011, Greg, “The other big jobs fight,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-other-big-jobs-fight/2011/03/03/gIQArfTX7K_blog.html)
  The battle over the American Jobs Act has
  AND
  petition. Keep an eye on this one.

  Political capital not key – empirically proven
  Edwards 3 (George C. Edwards, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M, former Director of the Center for Presidential Studies, Riding High in the Polls: George W. Bush and Public Opinion, http://www-polisci.tamu.edu/MyDocuments/web/Edwards/Papers%20PDF/work_papers/SP01LegislativeImpact.pdf)
  One of the perennial questions about presidential-
  AND
  deference to a widely supported chief executive.44

  1AR
  He’s spending PC now – traveling around the country trying to drum up support and is muscling Congress as we speak.  
  Kurtzleben, 9/8 (Danielle, 9/8/2011, “Will Congress Pass Obama's Jobs Bill? House leaders seem more cooperative, but the bill may be doomed for another bitter congressional debate,” http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2011/09/12/will-congress-pass-obamas-jobs-bill)
  Thursday evening, President Obama spoke to both
  AND
  we appear ready to hand him a win?"

  And it is Obama’s top legislative priority
  Bolton, 9/28 (Alexander, 9/28/2011, “Reid playing for leverage with jobs bill,” http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/184289-china-currency-reid-playing-for-leverage-with-jobs-bill)
  Obama has made a $447 billion jobs
  AND
  , Reid has not yet scheduled a vote.

  Political capital is spent in the political earlygame – prefer our evidence because it’s from a peer-reviewed journal instead of a blogger on Mother Jones
  Beckmann & Kumar, 11 - Department of Poli Sci and UC Irvine (Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar, Journal of Theoretical Politics, “How presidents push, when presidents win: A model of positive presidential power in US lawmaking,” SAGE Journals Database)
  This paper aims to demystify the White House’s
  AND
  presidents’ legislative influence have missed most of it.

  GSU ROUND 3 - AFF VS HARVARD
  Empirically no escalation – deterrence has prevented conflict for 60 years
  Kang, 10 – professor of international relations and business and director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California (12/31/10, David C., “Korea’s New Cold War,” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653, JMP)
  However, despite dueling artillery barrages and the
  AND
  matter how far it lies in the future.
  Trade deals won’t improve the economy for those unemployed
  Reich, 8/2 - Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley (8/2/2011, Robert, “Why Obama still can't fix the jobs crisis,” http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/?story=/politics/war_room/2011/08/02/obama_jobs_crisis)
  The President also wants to complete trade deals
  AND
  time ones, or have given up looking.

  House Democrats won’t support a rule that conditions TAA renewal on passage of FTAs

  Inside U.S. Trade, 9/16 (“TIMING OF FTA SUBMISSION REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT LEE VISIT MAY SPUR ACTION,” 9/16/2011, Factiva)
  A House rule stipulating that TAA extension would
  AND
  the FTAs had to be submitted to Congress.

  Obama is sinking much of his political capital into his liberal jobs bill

  Kurtzleben, 9/8 (Danielle, 9/8/2011, “Will Congress Pass Obama's Jobs Bill? House leaders seem more cooperative, but the bill may be doomed for another bitter congressional debate,” http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2011/09/12/will-congress-pass-obamas-jobs-bill)
  Thursday evening, President Obama spoke to both
  AND
  we appear ready to hand him a win?"

  House agenda jammed - trade will be pushed back

  Pottorff, 9/14 - Doane chief economist & Washington analyst   (9/14/2011, Rich, “D.C. Watch: Congress running late,” http://www.dairyherd.com/dairy-news/DC-Watch-Congress-running-late-129757623.html?ref=623)
  Congress returned to Washington last week with a
  AND
  the free trade agreements until later this year.
  The U.S. is increasing democracy assistance now
  Democracy Digest, 9/15 (“New transitions initiative to take light footprint in assisting Arab democracy?” 9/15/2011, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/new-transitions-initiative-to-take-light-footprint-in-assisting-arab-democracy/)
  “The US State Department has opened a
  AND
  railed against assistance to pro-democracy groups.
  Obama won’t push the plan
  McFaul, Professor PolSci Stanford, ‘5 (Michael, January 30, “What Democracy Assistance Is ... and Is Not” Hoover Institute, http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/7367)
  Do these American democracy assistance groups carry out
  AND
  same divide is present in many countries today.
  Passing even controversial policies boosts Obama’s political capital
  Singer, 9 – Juris Doctorate candidate at Berkeley Law (Jonathon, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital,” 3/3/2009, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)
  Despite the country's struggling economy and vocal opposition
  AND
  rewarded by the American public as a result. 

  No vote this month and FAA, highway and FEMA votes are before it

  Snell & Friedman, 9/13 (Kelsey Snell and Dan Friedman, “Hopes Rising for Three Pacts, Chinese-Currency Bill,” 9/13/2011, Factiva)
  Although Reid is trying to get TAA passed
  AND
  hope that TAA can be considered this month.

  Won’t even pass this year - Obama hasn’t submitted them for a vote yet

  Senator Roberts, 9/14 - former chairman of the House Agriculture subcommittee and ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee today (9/14/2011, Congressional Record, “Senate - TRADE AGREEMENTS,” Factiva)
  It is long overdue time for the President
  AND
  Send us the bill, Mr. President.

  South Korea won’t quickly ratify it - agenda crowded and political opposition

  Dong-A Ilbo Daily, 9/10 (“Penny wise and pound foolish,” 9/10/2011, Factiva, JMP)
  Though Congress has accelerated efforts to ratify the
  AND
  under the former Roh Moo-hyun administration.
  Political capital not key – empirically proven
  Edwards 3 (George C. Edwards, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M, former Director of the Center for Presidential Studies, Riding High in the Polls: George W. Bush and Public Opinion, http://www-polisci.tamu.edu/MyDocuments/web/Edwards/Papers%20PDF/work_papers/SP01LegislativeImpact.pdf)
  One of the perennial questions about presidential-
  AND
  deference to a widely supported chief executive.44

  
  
  

2AC Irigaray

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 3 | Opponent: UTSA | Judge: Pointer
  
  

• State-mediated democratic politics is key to advancing freedom – trying to reduce inequality outside of institutionalized democracy fails to achieve social transformation

  Martín-Muñoz, Professor Sociology U of Madrid, 11 (Gema Martín-Muñoz --- also Director General of Casa Arabe and its International Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, European Union Institute for Security Studies, The Arab democratic wave: How the EU can seize the moment, March, “The Dignity of the Rule of Law,” )

  In the present situation, respect for human

  AND

  the world on which true global stability depends.

  Trying to exclude the MB from politics only encourages radicalization

  Avşar, MS at Middle East  Technical University, ‘8 (Esra, June, “The Transformation Of The Political Ideology And The Democracy Discourse Of The Muslim Brotherhood In Egypt” http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12609555/index.pdf)

  Therefore, rather than discussing the Islamist’s modern

  AND

  radical and undemocratic ideologies within the Islamic current.

  Engaging now allows us to shape Islamic women’s rights policies

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ‘8 (Shadi, October 30, “Resolving America’s Islamist Dilemma: Lessons From South And Southeast Asia” Century Foundation Report, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22529/Hamid_report_10-30-08.pdf)

  Recognizing That We Have Leverage, And Using It

  AND

  law, minority rights, and women’s equality.

  No root cause to war

  Goldstein, Int’l Rel Prof @ American U, in ‘1 (Joshua, , 2001, War and Gender, p. 412)

  First, peace activists

  AND

  empirically inadequate."'

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Neoliberalism

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 3 | Opponent: UTSA | Judge: Pointer
  
  

• GSU - R5 - AFF VS UNLV
  Permutation – do the plan and reject neoliberalism in democracy assistance – it’s not a mandate of the plan – democracy assistance can still be given without creating ties of economic exploitation
  Youngs, Director-General FRIDE, ’11 (Richard- Professor Politics University of Warwick, February 11, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion” http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/)
  Third, central to critical perspectives is the
  AND
  not to be captured by incumbent autocratic regimes.

  Alt fails – discourse won’t change structure of oppression
  Rorty ’89 (Richard-, Prof. of Comp Lit @ Stanford, Contingency, Irony, and Solidarity, P. 86)
  The reason liberalism has been strengthened by this
  AND
  no insuperable obstacles to this story's coming true. 

  Alternatives to capitalism fail – lack of individual choice results in tyranny or failure*
  Meltzer, Professor of Political Economy at Carnegie Mellon University’s School of Business, Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, First Recipient of the AEI Irving Kristol Award, and Chairman of the International Financial Institution Advisory Commission, ‘9 (Allan, March 12, “Why Capitalism?” 2008-2009 Bradley Lecture Series, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.29525,filter.all/pub_detail.asp)
  Alternatives to Capitalism  Critics of capitalism emphasize their
  AND
  if any progress is visible on these issues. 

  Continued growth  upward sophistication of technology that ensures sustainability and solves a host of global problems –we must exploit this trend or face extinction
  The Futurist ’9 (“Emerging Technologies And the Global Crisis of Maturity”, 3-2  http://www.smalltimes.com/news/display_news_story.cfm? Section=WireNews&Category=HOME&NewsID= 174725)
  Despite the present mess in energy and environment
  AND
  that now form the major obstacles to progress.

  Neoliberalism lowers the propensity for violent conflict – history proves
  John A. Tures, Associate Professor of Political Science at LaGrange College, 2003, “ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND CONFLICT REDUCTION: EVIDENCE FROM THE 1970S, 1980S, AND 1990S”, Cato Journal, Vol. 22, No. 3. http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj22n3/cj22n3-9.pdf
  The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented
  AND
  and conflict reduction during the past three decades. 

  Role of the ballot is to determine the course of action of the affirmative should be offered – makes the merits of the plan irrelevant making it impossible to be aff – second, tying ourselves to links about the plan creates better decision-making about whether the resolution should be done – they make debate less useful

  David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7

  Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

  AND

  , and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

  Policymakers will inevitably make predictions – failure to use explicit risk calculation causes poor decision-making

  Fitzsimmons, Defence Analyst, ‘7 (Michael, Winter, “The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning” Survival)

  In defence of prediction 

  AND

  business of predicting the future.

  Doesn’t solve the case – democracy assistance key to changing the MB’s agenda away from violence towards Israel and boosting US credibility against terrorism – reject assistance doesn’t increase cooperation – impact is short-term Egypt-Israel war – turns the Kritik – US more likely to intervene in favor of national interests if we have to intervene through post-conflict nation-building

  Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace, ‘7 (Mona, August, “Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy” http://www.ikhwanweb.com/uploads/lib/AXRFDSS83DTR6KF.pdf)

  Successful Strategy. A successful Islamist engagement strategy

  AND

  in the Muslim world between extremism and moderation.

  Your author says the goal is not to withdraw from the state, but alter functioning of power through new political participation

  Žižek 9 (Slavoj, Prof. of European Graduate School, Intl. Director of the Birkbeck Inst. for Humanities, U. of London, and Senior Researcher @ Inst. of Sociology, U. of Ljubljiana, First as Tragedy, Then as Farce, pgs. 129-131)

  The Hegelian answer is

  AND

  such a "dictatorship"?

  Kritik doesn’t turn the case – corporate interests don’t have enough sway to undermine the effectiveness of democracy assistance

  Youngs, Director-General FRIDE, ’11 (Richard- Professor Politics University of Warwick, February 11, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion” http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/)

  A fourth contention is that approaches to democracy

  AND

  of a particular conceptualistion of democracy support policies.

  Alternatives to capitalism fail – lack of individual choice results in tyranny or failure***

  Meltzer, Professor of Political Economy at Carnegie Mellon University’s School of Business, Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, First Recipient of the AEI Irving Kristol Award, and Chairman of the International Financial Institution Advisory Commission, ‘9 (Allan, March 12, “Why Capitalism?” 2008-2009 Bradley Lecture Series, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.29525,filter.all/pub_detail.asp)

  Alternatives to Capitalism  Critics of capitalism emphasize

  AND

  visible on these issues.

  They can’t bridge the gap between theory and practice – attempts to criticize IR through rethinking leaves us without any specific prescriptions for what we should do – they don’t solve the K or the aff

  Jones, Professor Security Studies Cardiff U, ’99 (Richard Wyn, “Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory” http://library.northsouth.edu/Upload/Security%20Strategy%20and%20Critical%20Theory.pdf)

  Critical International Theory and Emancipatory Politics

  AND

  thus that it is a fatally flawed enterprise.

  If neoliberalism is unsustainable – democratization of Islam is needed to survive the transition.

  Amin 11 – Samir director of the Third World Forum in Dakar, 2011: An Arab Springtime? August 22nd, 2011,

  The “springtime” of the Arab peoples,

  AND

  perspective of generalized barbarism.

  No mindless intervention

  Mandelbaum 11 (Michael Mandelbaum, A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC; and Director, Project on East-West Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, “CFR 90th Anniversary Series on Renewing America: American Power and Profligacy,” Jan 2011)

  MANDELBAUM:  I think it is, Richard

  AND

  And that unit has come to an end.

  Economy not root cause of Egyptian revolution – economy has been stable

  Dadush, International Economics at Carnegie, ’11 (Uri, June 22, “Egypt in Transition: The Current Economic Situation and the Role of International Assistance” Carnegie Endowment Transcript, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/72211_transcript_egypttransition.pdf)

  So the first point is that the underlying

  AND

  the population. So that’s the first point.

  Intervening before correction occurs causes extinction

  Revel ‘93

  [Jean-Francois, sociopolitical analyst, Democracy Against Itself: The Future of the Democratic Impulse, trans. Roger Kaplan, New York: The Free Press, 258-9]

  There have been natural cataclysms in history,

  AND

  . And anyway it has been tried already.

  Democracy must be reinfused with liberal ideals – attempts to redefine or reimplement democracy assistance towards different ends cause more intrusion and paralysis

  Youngs, Director-General FRIDE, ’11 (Richard- Professor Politics University of Warwick, February 11, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion” http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/)

  Reflections on liberalism’s future

  Current international political trends are complex and still

  AND

  AND

  time sharpen the West’s defence of core liberalism.

  Gramscian critiques of the neoliberal underside of democracy promotion are false – they risk oversimplifying all democracy projects as homogenous

  Youngs, Director-General FRIDE, ’11 (Richard- Professor Politics University of Warwick, February 11, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion” http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/)

  The severest critics deride the whole democracy agenda

  AND

  the renovations needed are more subtle in nature.

  Immediate transition causes war

  Roger Terry, Economic Insanity, 1995, p. 138

  How do you convert from a system of

  AND

  far more devastating than the one over slavery.

  
  
• 
  
  

Muslim Brotherhood 1AC (Policy) - Gonzaga

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 1 | Opponent: Whitman | Judge: Sarah Partlow
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• New 1AC card replacing Jerusalem Post in Adv 1
  Current attempts to engineer elections empowers the Old Guard branch of the Brotherhood – guarantees a radicalized foreign policy agenda
  Guseynov, Middle Eastern Affairs, 7-10-’11 (Enver, “Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt” http://www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984#ixzz1VVTJXVDL)
  Today the Muslim Brotherhood is arguably ... insecurity in the Middle East.

  Plan
  The United States federal government should make political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party.
  Advantage 1 – Egypt-Israel War

  The US has tried to increase low-level contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt – however it was only a rhetorical gesture
  Mozgovaya, 6-30-’11 (Natasha, “Clinton: U.S. engagement of Muslim Brotherhood not new policy” http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/clinton-u-s-engagement-of-muslim-brotherhood-not-new-policy-1.370482)
  United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denied
  AND
  political system that we would like to see”.

  These talks alone fail – US must fulfill expectations that have been created for engagement
  Dorsey, Middle East Institute, 7-5-’11 (James, “US risks missing opportunity to play leading role in Middle East transition” Al Arabiya News, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html)
  The ever more evident difficulty in the transition
  AND
  fulfill those expectations risks sparking disappointment and disillusionment.

  The Muslim Brotherhood is banned from participation in political party assistance programs even though they have shown interest – assistance is key
  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shaid, January 5, “How to Revive Obama's Middle East Policy? Some Responses” http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2010/01/how-to-revive-obamas-middle-east-policy-some-responses-.html)
  In the article, I criticized the Obama
  AND
  Re-introducing the Brotherhood to the West.”

  This bias towards secular parties makes it look like we’re trying to engineer elections against the Brotherhood – this ruins our credibility with Islamic parties
  Carothers, Democracy at Carnegie, ’11 (Thomas, February 24, “How not to promote democracy in Egypt” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406530.html)
  As the U.S. government assesses
  AND
  exclusion would be a good way to start.

  The Brotherhood will inevitably win the elections and dominate the new political landscape – they are unified and have unparalleled mobilization capabilities
  Trager, Washington Institute, ’11 (Eric, September/October, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt” Foreign Affairs, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704)
  The Brotherhood Bloc In the months since Mubarak's
  AND
  nationwide networks. But that cannot happen immediately.

  Ascendency of the Muslim Brotherhood will cause them to turn against Israel – engagement is key to moderate their stance
  Bajoria, CFR, ’11 (Jayshree, February 3, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood” http://www.cfr.org/africa/egypts-muslim-brotherhood/p23991)
  Egypt is an important strategic ally of the
  AND
  at the heart of talks with Egypt's Islamists."

  The Muslim Brotherhood will act aggressively towards Israel – political involvement alone won’t cause moderation
  Jerusalem Post, 8-29-’11 (“Egypt’s Brotherhood” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Article.aspx?ID=235916&R=R1)
  As Egyptian elections draw near, the Muslim
  AND
  does not repeat itself on our southern doorstep.

  Tensions are high – Egypt-Israel conflict engulfs the entire region
  Brady, PolicyMic, ’11 (Kyle, August, “A Dangerous Time For Egypt and Israel” http://www.policymic.com/articles/a-dangerous-time-for-egypt-and-israel)
  Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors
  AND
  given, more so now than ever before.

  It draws in major powers and causes global nuclear war
  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, ‘9 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)
  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
  AND
  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Developing ties before the elections is key to maximizing US leverage – this prevents the instigation of conflict with Israel
  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’11 (Shadi, May/June, “The Rise of the Islamists” Foreign Affairs, Vol 90 Issue 3, EbscoHost)
  There is no question that democracy will make
  AND
  2005 called Reintroducing the Brotherhood to the West.

  Democracy assistance is key – perception of US assistance for Brotherhood in political participation is a precondition to effective dialogue over US security interests in the region
  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam_hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf)
  Dialogue is not a goal in and of
  AND
  serving all four of the objectives listed above.

  Advantage 2 – US Credibility
  US favoritism of liberal secularism is the root cause of Muslim resentment towards the West – Providing democracy assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood signals a shift in the relationship
  Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)
  On the ten-year anniversary of the
  AND
  with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

  Al Qaeda is still a threat – Complacency about Osama’s death increaes the risk al Qaeda will rebound
  Boot, National Security at CFR, ’11 (Max, August 8, “A False Sense of National Security” Los Angeles Times, http://www.cfr.org/national-security-and-defense/false-sense-national-security)
  U.S. government officials are probably
  AND
  aides, may be making the same mistake.

  Al Qaeda does not have a leadership crisis – Shura Council and Zawahiri ensure accelerated recruitment and new attack strategies
  Scheuer, 22 years at the CIA, 8-24-’11 (Michael, “The Zawahiri Era” The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/print/article/zawahiri-era-5732)
  It would be reckless to assume al-
  AND
  be sent abroad to ply their lethal trade.

  Zawahiri’s new goal is acquisition of a nuclear bomb – risk of al Qaeda nuclear attack is high
  Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
  Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the
  AND
  accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”

  Nuclear terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global
  Morgan, Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, ‘9 (Dennis Ray, December, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race” Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect)
  In a remarkable website on nuclear war,
  AND
  upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

  Al Qaeda will block off access to the Suez Canal
  Watkins, Oil Diplomacy Editor, ’10 (Eric, February 15, “Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy” Oil and Gas Journal, lexis)
  The oil and gas industry has long heard
  AND
  two thirds of the world's oil reserves are."

  Terrorist attack on the Suez Canal causes shutdown – that slams the breaks on the global economy
  Sterne, Managing Partner Sterne and Co, ’11 (Paul, January 30, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” http://www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579)
  Egypt matters for one reason  the Suez
  AND
  the unrest in Egypt began will look tame. 

  Global economic collapse causes nuclear war
  Mead 09 Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2
  The greatest danger both to U.S
  AND
  track, we may still have to fight.

  Beginning with the Muslim Brotherhood creates a starting point for further cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region
  Stacher, Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘7 (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe, http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)
  According to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice,
  AND
  group in the region than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.

  That’s the best way to challenge radical Islamic terrorism – helps win hearts and minds
  Hamid, Director Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘7 (Shadi, June, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy” Progressive Policy Institute, http://www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf)
  In light of the growing schism between mainstream
  AND
  That window, however, is now closed.

  Economic decline causes war – studies prove
  Royal, Director Cooperative Threat Reduction DOD, ’10 (Jedediah, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises” in ‘Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives’ ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
  Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
  AND
  economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

  
  
  

Muslim Brotherhood 1AC (Kritik) - Gonzaga

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 3 | Opponent: UTSA | Judge: Pointer
  
  

• Plan

  The United States federal government should make political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party.

  The Advantage

  The US has tried to increase low-level contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt – however it was only a rhetorical gesture

  Mozgovaya, 6-30-’11 (Natasha, “Clinton: U.S. engagement of Muslim Brotherhood not new policy” http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/clinton-u-s-engagement-of-muslim-brotherhood-not-new-policy-1.370482)

  United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denied

  AND

  AND

  political system that we would like to see”.

  These talks alone fail – US must fulfill expectations that have been created for engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood

  Dorsey, Middle East Institute, 7-5-’11 (James, “US risks missing opportunity to play leading role in Middle East transition” Al Arabiya News, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html)

  The ever more evident difficulty in the transition

  AND

  Failure to fulfill those expectations risks sparking disappointment and disillusionment.

  This bias towards liberal secular parties makes it look like we’re trying to engineer elections to keep the Muslim Brotherhood out of power – this ruins our credibility and influence with Islamic parties

  Carothers, Democracy at Carnegie, ’11 (Thomas, February 24, “How not to promote democracy in Egypt” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406530.html)

  As the U.S. government assesses

  AND

  AND

  exclusion would be a good way to start.

  The root cause of Muslim resentment against the US is the perception that Islam and democracy are incompatible – efforts to differentiate the two by excluding The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood from democracy assistance are perceived as choosing liberal secular winners locking in an adversarial relationship

  Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)

  On the ten-year anniversary of the

  AND

  with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

  The Muslim Brotherhood will inevitably win the Egyptian elections and dominate the new political landscape – they have unparalleled mobilization capabilities and no risk of fracturing

  Trager, Washington Institute, ’11 (Eric, September/October, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt” Foreign Affairs, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704)

  The Brotherhood Bloc In the months since Mubarak's

  AND

  nationwide networks. But that cannot happen immediately.

  Ascendency of the Muslim Brotherhood will cause them to turn against Israel – engagement is key to moderate their stance

  Bajoria, CFR, ’11 (Jayshree, February 3, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood” http://www.cfr.org/africa/egypts-muslim-brotherhood/p23991)

  Egypt is an important strategic ally of the

  AND

  at the heart of talks with Egypt's Islamists."

  Tensions have already put us on the brink – Egypt-Israel conflict escalates to engulf the entire region – now is key

  Brady, PolicyMic, ’11 (Kyle, August, “A Dangerous Time For Egypt and Israel” http://www.policymic.com/articles/a-dangerous-time-for-egypt-and-israel)

  Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors

  AND

  given, more so now than ever before.

  It draws in major powers and causes global nuclear war

  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, ‘9 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

  AND

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Democracy assistance is key – perception of US assistance for the Brotherhood in political participation is a precondition to effective dialogue over US security interests in the region

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam_hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf)

  Dialogue is not a goal in and of

  AND

  serving all four of the objectives listed above.

  Distinguishing moderate from violent forces within Islamic groups positively reshapes the relationship between the West and Islam while also being necessary for the prevention of extremist violence

  Etzioni, Professor Sociology George Washington, ‘7 (Amitai, “Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy” p 164-166)

  This formulation of the U.S.

  AND

  -scale support, primarily by the Saudis.)

  US foreign policy must be based on our strategic interests – this does not mean engaging in selfish foreign policy but instead promotes the global common good

  Kagan, Carnegie, ’98 (Robert, Summer, “The Benevolent Empire” Foreign Policy, JSTOR)

  And neither of them, one suspects,

  AND

  bullying may be just irritability born of weariness.

  Failure to justify our foreign policy agenda on national interest grounds result in a nation without values – this causes US withdrawal from global commitments and collapses US hegemony

  Williams, Professor International Politics Wales, ‘5 (Michael, “What is the National Interest? The Neoconservative Challenge in IR Theory” European Journal of International Relations, Vol 11 No 3, SagePub)

  We are now in a better position to

  AND

  the world’ (1996: 31–2).

  That sparks a global arms race and nuclear conflict

  Rosen, Professor National Security Harvard, ‘3 (Stephen Peter, Spring, “An Empire, If You Can Keep It” The National Interest, lexis)

  The other unique aspect of American empire today

  AND

  that the alternatives are that much more attractive.

  The global common good means using a Security First approach based upon our strategic interests and the protection of human lives – it’s the best pragmatic middle ground between Utopian idealism and the failures of the current motivation of global democracy promotion

  Etzioni, Professor Sociology George Washington, ‘7 (Amitai, “Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy” p 32-36)

  This issue more than most allows me to

  AND

  cannot be rushed and must be largely homegrown.

  The lens of Security First doesn’t mean rights and liberties become sidelined, it’s a prerequisite to every type of social protection

  Etzioni, Professor Sociology George Washington, ‘7 (Amitai, “Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy” p 5-7)

  Moral Grounds for the Security First Approach Security

  AND

  ,9 than is, say, democratization.

  Democracy assistance does not entail an imposition of neoliberal exploitation – states can de-link the two from each other so democracy assistance can encourage economic empowerment

  Youngs, Director-General FRIDE, ’11 (Richard- Professor Politics University of Warwick, February 11, “Misunderstanding The Maladies Of Liberal Democracy Promotion” http://www.eurasiareview.com/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion-18022011/)

  Third, central to critical perspectives is the

  AND

  not to be captured by incumbent autocratic regimes.

  Causal chains in the 1AC verify our truth claims – assumptions about the world are validated by the results of our research and analysis – our form of knowledge does not produce value claims it is the result of validated value claims***

  Fluck, PhD in International Politics from Aberystwyth, ’10 (Matthew, November, “Truth, Values and the Value of Truth in Critical International Relations Theory” Millennium Journal of International Studies, Vol 39 No 2, SagePub)

  Critical Realists arrive at

  AND

   truth about social reality.

  No prior questions—focus on critical theory makes it impossible to describe the world and act

  David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7

  Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

  AND

  , and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC MB Dialogue Counterplan

• Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Texas | Judge:
  
  

• Democracy assistance best way to engage with Islamic political parties – causes moderation 

  Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace, ‘7 (Mona, August, “Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy” http://www.ikhwanweb.com/uploads/lib/AXRFDSS83DTR6KF.pdf) 

  Successful Strategy. A successful Islamist … extremism and moderation. Democratic support is key to our credibility with Islamic communities 

  Saif, PhD European University Institute, ‘7 (Atef, May, “Alone at the Ballot Box: US Democracy Promotion and Rejection of Islamists” World Security Institute) 

   However, this realization … is the United States. Electoral support for MB precondition to other types of engagement 

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf) 

  Answering the Islamist Question … own political course.

  
  

• Political party assistance is key to internal democracy and preventing fracture
  Carothers, Democracy at Carnegie, ‘6 (Thomas, “Confronting the Weakest Link: Aiding Political Parties in New Democracies” p 95-96)
  Organizational Development The other main type of party
  AND
  apparatus, and greater autonomy for party branches.

  Economic assistance doesn’t solve credibility – it’s been tried and failed
  Leverett, International Affairs Prof at Penn State, ’11 (Flynt, May 20, “The Dispensable Nation” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/20/the_dispensable_nation)
  In this context, few in … than his predecessor.

  
  
  

2AC Ontology Islam K

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 2 | Opponent: OU | Judge: Ricky Garner
  
  

• Calls to “step back and think” are philosophically counterproductive – creative and active engagements with the world are far more authentic than their alternative 

  
  

  Harman, 2005 (Graham, critically acclaimed Heidegger scholar who spent 10 years reading everything Heidegger wrote [even in German,] Associate Provost for Research Administration at the American University of Cairo, “Guerrilla Metaphysics: Phenomenology and the Carpentry of Things,” p. 238-241) 

  What must be rejected from the start is 

  AND 

  or to pave the way for him oneself. 

  
  Our impacts come first – existence is a prerequisite to ontology 

  Storl, Professor of Philosophy at Augustana College, ‘8 (Heidi, October, “Heidegger in Woolf’s Clothing” Philosophy and Literature, Vol 32 No 2, p 303-314, Project Muse) 

  While the strength and … we care. 

  We cannot break down the walls separating liberal democracy from Islam without embracing security 

  
  

  Etzioni, Professor Sociology George Washington, ‘7 (Amitai, “Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy” p 92-93) 

  Why should people of such faith not be 

  AND 

  coercion—within a given period of time. 

  No link—Western values actually promote openness to the other. 

  
  

  Warraq 07 (Ibn, Founder of the Institute for the Secularisation of Islamic Study and senior research fellow at the Center for Inquiry, “Defending the West: A Critique of Edward Said’s Orientalism” pg. 70) 

  Western civilization has ever …the civilization we call Classical.46 As Burkert wrote, 

  The West rules—European self criticism has solved slavery, imperialism, and human rights. 

  
  

  Warraq 07 (Ibn, Founder of the Institute for the Secularisation of Islamic Study and senior research fellow at the Center for Inquiry, “Defending the West: A Critique of Edward Said’s Orientalism” pg. 75-76) 

  The greatest critics and critiques of the Western 

  AND 

  to defend freedom of inquiry and expression.84 

  The best way to break down the current dichotomy of East vs West is realize its more complicated than that – looking inside each religious group to differentiate those who use violence from those who don’t is key 

  
  

  Etzioni, Professor Sociology George Washington, ‘7 (Amitai, “Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy” p 85-88) 

   CHAPTER A. FEWER ENEMIES, MORE (POTENTIAL) ALLIES: THE GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF ILLIBERAL MODERATES 

  President Bush has repeatedly declared, "Either 

  AND 

  and liberals, will come into focus shortly. 

  Differentiating good Muslims from bad is a political necessity. 

  a. It’s a prerequisite to effective dialogue and solutions to violence. 

  
  

  Demant 6 – Peter R. is a Professor of History at Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil. He was senior research associate at the Harry S Truman Research Institute. He is a specialist in Middle Eastern and Islamic affairs. (ISLAM vs. ISLAMISM: The Dilemma of the Muslim World, pg. 233) 

  Among the many transformations that Osama … hides conceptual poverty.3 

  b. The K cedes the political and romanticizes Islam – prevents solvency. 

  
  

  Demant 6 – Peter R. is a Professor of History at Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil. He was senior research associate at the Harry S Truman Research Institute. He is a specialist in Middle Eastern and Islamic affairs. (ISLAM vs. ISLAMISM: The Dilemma of the Muslim World, pg. 233) 

  The West’s reaction to the frightening increase in 

  AND 

  of whether the victims are Westerners or Muslims. 

  c. Threats are real and Islamism IS responsible for the worst forms of violence – Ignoring the difference excuses and guarantees extremism. 

  
  

  Demant 6 – Peter R. is a Professor of History at Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil. He was senior research associate at the Harry S Truman Research Institute. He is a specialist in Middle Eastern and Islamic affairs. (ISLAM vs. ISLAMISM: The Dilemma of the Muslim World, pg. 233) 

  This does not mean one …, the rest of the world. 

  Global violence decreasing – civilization has become more moral 

  
  

  Pinker, Johnstone Family Professor at Harvard University, ‘7 (Steven, March 19, “A History of Violence” The New Republic, lexis) 

   In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular 

   AND 

   to know what, exactly, it is. 

  US foreign policy shouldn’t just appeal to other countries’ external interests – justifying our foreign policies by our national concerns is key to preventing global genocides and preventing countries from strong-arming us 

  
  

  Homolar-Riechmann, Professor International Security U of Leicester, ‘9 (Alexandra- Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, June, “The moral purpose of US power: neoconservatism in the age of Obama” Contemporary Politics, Vol 15 No 2, EbscoHost) 

   Faster than many of their intellectual opponents, 

   AND 

   Kagan 2004, pp. 58 –59) 

  The alternative collapses into neoconservative globalism – strategic and focused interventions solves. Ideal absolutism or retreat culminates in extinction. 

  
  

  Krauthammer 4 – Charles is a Pulitzer Prize–winning syndicated columnist, political commentator, and research fellow at a variety of think tanks. “In Defense of Democratic Realism,” The National Interest, Fall 2004; 77, http://people.cas.sc.edu/rosati/krauthammer.demrealism.ni.f04.htm 

  On February 10, 2004, I delivered … an existential threat, nothing is. = 1AR = 

  Questioning epistemology and methodology is unproductive 

  
  

  Houghton, Professor of Political Science at the University of Central Florida, ‘8 (David, “Positivism 'vs' Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference?” International Politics, Vol 45, p 115-128) 

   Writing in 1989, Thomas Biersteker noted that 

  AND 

  be what divides the international relations scene today. 

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Turkey Counterplan

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 3 | Opponent: Harvard | Judge: Whit Whitmore
  
  

• Turkey vehemently hates Israel – they’ll take no steps to protect them 

  
  

  Schleifer, Foreign Policy, 9-2-’11 (Yigal, “Dead in the Water” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/02/dead_in_the_water) 

  With the report's leak and Israel's continuing refusal 

  AND 

  way to get out of this current impasse. 

  Removing status quo support guts US credibility and prevents electoral transparency – key to check the military 

  
  

  Schenker, Director Arab Politics at Washington Institute, ’11 (David, July 25, “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations” The Cutting Edge, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459) 

  Given the present situation, the trajectory of 

  AND 

  up its bona fides with the Egyptian public. 

  Military control turns Israel solvency and DA 

  
  

  Sharp, Middle East Affairs at CRS, ’11 (Jeremy, June 17, “Egypt in Transition” Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf) 

  A More Independent Egyptian Foreign Policy In order 

  AND 

  into Gaza from the Sinai Peninsula and beyond. 

  Democracy assistance best way to engage with Islamic political parties – causes moderation 

  
  

  Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace, ‘7 (Mona, August, “Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy” http://www.ikhwanweb.com/uploads/lib/AXRFDSS83DTR6KF.pdf) 

  Successful Strategy. A successful Islamist engagement strategy 

  AND 

  in the Muslim world between extremism and moderation. 

  Perm – do the plan and end democracy assistance for all non-Freedom and Justice Party political parties in Egypt. 

  MB says no to Turkey – perceived as secular bias 

  
  

  Kessler, 9-15-’11 (Oren, “Brotherhood angry at Erdogan call for secular Egypt” Jerusalem Post, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=238021) 

  Egypt’s most powerful Islamist group warned Turkish Prime 

  AND 

  talking about secularism, it was all over.” 

  Turkey Net-benny 

  Political instability in Turkey undermines its soft power 

  
  

  ALTUNIŞIK, 8 - Professor, Department. of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara (MELİHA BENLİ ALTUNIŞIK, Insight Turkey, “The Possibilities and Limits of Turkey’s Soft Power in the Middle East,” vol.10 _{no. 2} pdf>&, JMP) 

  Still, however, the emergence of Turkey 

  AND 

  world as a successful example of political modernization. 

  France will block EU membership 

  
  

  Seibert, 11 (7/6/2011, Thomas, “Turkey's growing regional power boosts EU membership hopes,” ae/news/worldwide/europe/turkeys-growing-regional-power-boosts-eu-membership-hopes>&, JMP) 

  "We have a massive interest for Turkey 

  AND 

  said a German official travelling with Mr Westerwelle. 

  Turkey doesn’t want it 

  
  

  Zalewski, 11 - correspondent for Polityka, Poland’s best-selling news magazine, an editor at European Stability Initiative and a contributor to a number of English-language publications including The National, Insight Turkey and Turkish Policy Quarterly (Winter 2010/2011, Piotr Zalewski, World Policy Journal, “The Self-Appointed Superpower: Turkey Goes it Alone,” pdf>&, JMP) 

  ISTANBUL—On December 11, 1999, 

  AND 

  —and that Turkey can go it alone.” 

  European wars will never happen again 

  
  

  Fettweis 3 (Christopher, assistant professor of political science @ Tulane, Comparative Strategy, April) 

   In a world where great power conflict is 

  AND 

  hostile coalition on the Eurasian landmass approaches zero.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Saudi Relations DA

• Tournament: GSU | Round: R5 | Opponent: UNLV | Judge: Paul Johnson
  
  

• Many issues causing conflict with Saudi’s now – if they don’t cause the impact than cooperation is inevitable 

  
  

  IPS 9/14 

  (Agreeing on Less and Less, http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105103) 

  Accumulating strains between the United States and Saudi 

  AND 

  it together is the lack of an alternative." 

  Like the MB – perceived as opposite of liberal revolutionaries that they fear 

  
  

  Riedel, Senior Fellow at Brookings, 11 

  (8/24, Brezhnev in the Hejaz, http://nationalinterest.org/article/brezhnev-the-hejaz-5733) 

   Saudi foreign policy is always pragmatic and adaptive 

  AND 

  ties to Brotherhood leaders across the Arab world. 

  US abandonment of Mubarak should have caused the link 

  
  

  RFE 11 [Radio Free Europe] (2/16, Many Israelis Worry About The 'New Egypt,' http://www.rferl.org/content/israel_egypt/2311114.html) 

  Whatever Mubarak's faults, however, he was 

  AND 

  not yet ready for such a monumental change. 

  The U.S. is increasing democracy assistance now 

  
  

  Democracy Digest, 9/15 (“New transitions initiative to take light footprint in assisting Arab democracy?” 9/15/2011, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/new-transitions-initiative-to-take-light-footprint-in-assisting-arab-democracy/) 

  “The US State Department has opened a 

  AND 

  railed against assistance to pro-democracy groups. 

  Multiple disputes now – Iraq, Mubarak, Bahrain, and Oil 

  
  

  IPS 9/14 

  (Agreeing on Less and Less, http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105103) 

  At the same time, Obama's … in the future," he said. 

  No seller or motivation for Saudi Arabia to nuclearize – US security guarantees solve 

  
  

  Gawdat Bahgat - professor, National Defense University - Winter 2011, A Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East: Myth or Reality?, Mediterranean Quarterly 22:1, http://mq.dukejournals.org/content/22/1/27.full.pdf 

  Despite the fact that no evidence points to 

  AND 

  likely to ignite a regional nuclear arms race.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Russia Expansionism DA

• Tournament: GSU | Round: R5 | Opponent: UNLV | Judge: Paul Johnson
  
  

• N/U - Democracy assistance to Tunisia’s military  World Tribune 9/9 (Tunisia restricts security forces, gets U.S. aid, World Tribune, asp>&) 

  Meanwhile, The administration of President Barack Obama 

  AND 

  support for democratic change," an official said. The U.S. is increasing democracy assistance now 

  Democracy Digest, 9/15 (“New transitions initiative to take light footprint in assisting Arab democracy?” 9/15/2011, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/new-transitions-initiative-to-take-light-footprint-in-assisting-arab-democracy/) 

  “The US State Department has opened a 

  AND 

  railed against assistance to pro-democracy groups. U.S. has boosted assistance to Egypt 

  Fine, 8/22 (Gary, 8/22/2011, “After the Arab Spring?” html>&, JMP) 

  Egypt has received just over $2 billion 

   AND 

   military government’s commitment to policing the Israeli border. Russia doesn’t have the budget for adventurism 

  Koehl, Fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, senior research fellow on US-European defense cooperation at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, 10-14-2K8 (Stuart, “Don't Laugh at the Bear But don't make him bigger than he is.”, The Weekly Standard) 

   Greenwald's main point appears to be Russia is 

  AND 

  has no first-strike capability at all. Zero threat of war with Russia 

  George Perkovich, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2003 

  As for Russia, a full-scale 

   AND 

   forward-leaning posture of America's present arsenal. No war- Russia doesn’t have the military or economy to back aggressiveness 

  Beeston 1/29/09 (Richard, pg. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5604935.ece) 

   Russia is ripe for a deal. Last 

  AND 

  night that “militarisation did not solve problems”. Zero risk of Russian expansionism 

  Mead, senior fellow @ the Council on Foreign Relations, 2/4/09 (Walter, Russell, pg. http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2169866/posts) 

  The biggest loser of the financial crisis thus 

  AND 

  counted a casualty of the Panic of 2008. Bostrom changed his mind 

  Bostrom, Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Achievement, ‘9 (Nick, “The Future of Humanity, New Waves in Philosophy of Technology” pdf>&) 

   Extinction risks constitute an …: a giant massacre for man, a small misstep for mankind.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Hamas Add-on

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Hamas attacks cause Israeli aggression – killing the chance of peace in the region 

  Byman, Director Middle East Brookings, ’11 (Daniel, July, “The Challenge of Gaza: Policy Options and Broader Implications” http://www.brookings.edu//media/Files/rc/papers/2011/07_gaza_borders_byman/07_gaza_borders_byman.pdf) 

  If Hamas opposed the peace … Fatah to resume violence. Israeli aggression turns them into a pariah state – reckless foreign policy causes global nuclear war 

  The New Republic 02 (7/8, Lexis) 

  The more that Israelis are … suspicion could be shattering.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC - T Increase (Offer/Mandate)

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 7 | Opponent: Minnesota | Judge: Scott Harris
  
  

• 1. W/M – Making available is normal means for increasing democracy assistance 

  
  

  Thomas Carothers- sr. associate at Carnegie- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp39.pdf 

  Such indirect aid for democracy in the Arab 

  AND 

  contributing to a basic change of regime type. 

  2. C/I 

  
  

  . “Increase" means to make something 

  AND 

  rate that an individual has previously been charged. 

  Reinhardt, 05 – U.S. Judge for the UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT (Stephen, JASON RAY REYNOLDS; MATTHEW RAUSCH, Plaintiffs-Appellants, v. HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.; HARTFORD FIRE INSURANCE COMPANY, Defendants-Appellees., lexis) 

  B. Makes no aff topical – all democracy assistance is inherently an offer 

  
  

  USAID, 2007 (June, A STUDY OF POLITICAL PARTY ASSISTANCE IN EASTERN EUROPE AND EURASIA) 

  Election assistance should be a means to an 

  AND 

  should not seek to influence particular electoral outcomes. 

  C. They mis-understand political party assistance – it’s not handing out cash, increase means expanding who can come to training sessions 

  
  

  Al-Ahram, ’11 (“Reiterating the differences” 

  http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm) 

  A group of Egyptian political parties … democratic system," Feltman said.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Egypt FTA Counterplan

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 7 | Opponent: Minnesota | Judge: Scott Harris
  
  

• Economic assistance doesn’t solve credibility – it’s been tried and failed 

  
  

  Leverett, International Affairs Prof at Penn State, ’11 (Flynt, May 20, “The Dispensable Nation” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/20/the_dispensable_nation) 

   In this context, few in the region 

   AND 

   warranted hardly a mention in the president's speech. 

   The Middle East is changing, and American 

  AND 

  America's regional standing and influence than his predecessor. 

  Economic assistance links to politics 

  
  

  Donnelly, Middle East and Europe USTR, ’11 (Shaun- US Diplomat to Egypt and Tunisia and Middle East Vice President at Chamber of Commerce, June 22, “The Neglected Pillar: America's Economic Agenda in the Middle East” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3373) 

   In his May 19 speech, the president 

   AND 

   also America's economy, companies, and workers.

  
  
• 
  
  

Muslim Brotherhood 1AC (Policy) - Kentucky R1

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Texas | Judge: Alyssa Lucas-Bolin
  
  

• ~== Plan == === The United States federal government should make political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party. === == Advantage 1 - Engagement == === ~{~{id name="OLE_LINK53"/}}~{~{id name="OLE_LINK52"/}}Egyptian demand for US political party assistance is high but a ban on working with the Muslim Brotherhood creates the perception that the US is engineering elections === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Slavin~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council,~(%%) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)11 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(4/14, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, ~[~[~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt" style="text-decoration: none; " %)http:~~~~/~~~~/ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)>>http:~/~/ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266%29]] ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)For years, ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)U.S.~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)officials ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt" %)parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt. === Attempts at dialogue with the MB have failed to create a strategic engagement – providing substantive democracy assistance is needed === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Dorsey~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Middle East Institute, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)7-5~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)-’11 (James, “US risks missing opportunity to play leading role in Middle East transition” Al Arabiya News, http:~~/~~/english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)The ever more evident difficulty in the transition ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)fulfill~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) those ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)expectations risks~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) sparking ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)disappointment and ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)disillusionment~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). ~(% align="left" style="text-align:left" %) === The MB will say yes to US assistance creating influence with Islamist groups around the world – Say no arguments are based on an outdated monolithic understanding of the MB === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Husain,~(%%) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)Senior Fellow at CFR~(%%), ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)11 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(4/5, Feuding Brothers, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/05/feuding_brothers?page=full) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)I was in Cairo to …~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). ~(%%)Islamists can change. === Prefer Husain – he has a unique insider perspective === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Gray, ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), 07 ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(The Pathology of Faith, http:~~/~~/www.literaryreview.co.uk/gray_06_07.html) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Nearly all ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)media commentary accepts Islamism~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) at face ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt" %)universal identity based on rejection of the past. === Political Party assistance is key to successful engagement with the MB – Three reasons === === First – Coalition building === === ~{~{id name="OLE_LINK43"/}}~{~{id name="OLE_LINK42"/}}The coalition between the MB and secular parties is falling apart === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)El-Hennawy~(%%), ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)Senior Reporter for Al-Masry Al-Youm~(%%), ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)8/16 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(Brotherhood-led political alliance on verge of collapse, http:~~/~~/www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/486826) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)The~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) Democratic Alliance for Egypt, a ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)massive ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)two key players that remain ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)on board.~(% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %) “ === US Political party assistance is key to form secular-Islamist coalitions that are ~_~_necessary~_~_ for moderation and engagement === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~~"Times New Roman~~"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast" %)Yacoubian, ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)Special Advisor to the United States Institute of Peace~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~~"Times New Roman~~"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast" %), 07 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(Special Report 190, Engaging islamists and Promoting Democracy a Preliminary assessment) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)Cross-Party Cooperation. ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)A crucial part ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) case offers important insights to be emulated elsewhere. === Second - Institutional Knowledge === === Political party assistance advances our institutional knowledge of the political parties we work with === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)HED 08~(%%) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)[Higher Education for Development] ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(2008 Special Request for Applications: Evaluation and Analysis of USAID’s Political Party Strengthening Programs, http:~~/~~/www.hedprogram.org/CurrentRFAs/tabid/66/Default.aspx?itemid=177) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)For over 15 years, ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)…knowledge of political parties. ~(% align="left" style="text-align:left" %) === The MB will accept the plan because they recognize the utility of US democracy assistance but improving our institutional knowledge is a prerequisite to engagement ~(% class="StyleDate" %)Hamid, ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; " %)Middle East at Brookings~(% class="StyleDate" %), 10~(%%) === ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(“The Islamist Response to Repression”, ~{~{id name="OLE_LINK14"/}}~{~{id name="OLE_LINK13"/}}~[~[~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt" style="text-decoration: none; " %)http:~~~~/~~~~/www.brookings.edu/~~~~~~~~/media/Files/rc/papers/>>http:~/~/www.brookings.edu/~~~~/media/Files/rc/papers/]]~(%%)2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Islamist leaders often speak of an “American ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:8.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:8.0pt" %)ad-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. === Third - Party Unity === === Status quo attempts to engineer elections split the MB – causes radicalization that makes engagement impossible === ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Guseynov~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Contributing Writer - Middle Eastern Affairs, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)7-10~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)-’11 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(Enver, “Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt” http:~~/~~/~{~{id name="OLE_LINK2"/}}~{~{id name="OLE_LINK1"/}}www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984#ixzz1VVTJXVDL) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Not surprisingly, ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)efforts ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)are ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)… insecurity in ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)the Middle East~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)~*~*.~*~* === Engagement with the Muslim brotherhood is a key mechanism to restrain militant groups like Hamas from attacking Israel === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Saleh~(%%), ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)Journalist with Reuters~(%%), ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)11 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(6/30, Analysis: U.S. overtures to Egypt Islamists show pragmatism, http:~~/~~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/30/us-egypt-usa-brotherhood-idUSTRE75T6HF20110630) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)A US decision ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)to resume ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)…~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) Political and Strategic Studies. === Israel conflict inevitable in the status quo – Hamas will trigger a war with Israel to boost MB support in the election and to help the UN Palestine vote === ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)DeVore~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Foreign Affairs at Defense Department, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)11 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(Chuck, May 19, “The Next Middle East War” Human Events Special Report, http:~~/~~/www.nh4israel.org/uploads/5/7/3/3/5733440/thenextmiddleeastwar_special_report.pdf) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Unremarked by most Western …~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %) blockade of Israel~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %). === Israel/Hamas war causes democratic backsliding – ensures conflict throughout the Middle East === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Ibish,~(%%) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine~(%%), ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)11 ~(% align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:left" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(3/23, We Now Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Conflict, http:~~/~~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/23/we_now_return_to_our_regularly_scheduled_conflict?page=0,0) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)And now, ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)with escalating ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)…~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) tolerance for the status quo. === Middle East war draws in major powers and causes global nuclear war === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Russell~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Editor of Strategic Insights, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)09 ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)(James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http:~~/~~/www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)Strategic stability in … the entire world. === Nuclear miscalculation makes the conflict impossible to deescalate === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Krepinevich~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), President of Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)11~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Jan/Feb, The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Issue 1, p66-81) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:6.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Were Saudi Arabia to acquire nuclear weapons, ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). == Advantage 2 – US Credibility == === US favoritism of liberal secularism is the root cause of Muslim resentment towards the West – Providing democracy assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood signals a shift in the relationship === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Kull~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)9-5~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http:~~/~~/globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)On the ten-year anniversary of the ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)with the Muslim world ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)will ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)become more amicable. === Al Qaeda is still a threat – Complacency about Osama’s death increaes the risk al Qaeda will rebound === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Boot, National Security at CFR, ’11~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Max, August 8, “A False Sense of National Security” Los Angeles Times, http:~~/~~/www.cfr.org/national-security-and-defense/false-sense-national-security) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)U.S. government ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)officials are~(% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) probably ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)aides, ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)may be making the same mistake~(% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). === Al Qaeda does not have a leadership crisis – Shura Council and Zawahiri ensure accelerated recruitment and new attack strategies === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Scheuer~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), 22 years at the CIA, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)8-24~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)-’11 (Michael, “The Zawahiri Era” The National Interest, http:~~/~~/nationalinterest.org/print/article/zawahiri-era-5732) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)It would be reckless to assume al- ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)be sent abroad to ply their lethal trade~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). === Zawahiri’s new goal is acquisition of a nuclear bomb – risk of al Qaeda nuclear attack is high === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Kanani~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Editor of World Affairs Commentary, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)6-29~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %)-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http:~~/~~/www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)accomplishing when they put their minds to it~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %).” === Nuclear terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Morgan~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, ‘~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)9~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Dennis Ray, December, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race” Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)In a remarkable website on nuclear war, ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well. === Al Qaeda will block off access to the Suez Canal === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Watkins~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Oil Diplomacy Editor, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)’10~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Eric, February 15, “Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy” Oil and Gas Journal, lexis) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)The oil and gas industry has long heard ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)two thirds of the world's oil reserves are." === Terrorist attack on the Suez Canal causes shutdown – that slams the breaks on the global economy === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Sterne~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Managing Partner Sterne and Co, ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)’11~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Paul, January 30, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” http:~~/~~/www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Egypt matters for one reason ~~-~~- the Suez ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)the unrest in Egypt began will look tame~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). === Global economic collapse causes nuclear war === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Mead 09~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, ~[~[~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt StyleStyleBold12pt" style="text-decoration: none; " %)www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2>>http:~/~/www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2]] ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)The greatest danger~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)both to U.S ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)track, ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)we may~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %) still~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)have to fight~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %). === Beginning with the Muslim Brotherhood creates a starting point for further cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Stacher~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)7~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe, http:~~/~~/www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)According to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)group in the region than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. === That’s the best way to challenge radical Islamic terrorism – helps win hearts and minds === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)Hamid~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %), Director Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘~(% class="StyleDate" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)7~(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" %) (Shadi, June, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy” Progressive Policy Institute, http:~~/~~/www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)In light of the growing schism between mainstream ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)AND ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)That window, however, is now closed~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %).

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC T - Unconditional

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: MSU GP | Judge: TCram
  
  

• 1. W/M – Making available is normal means for increasing democracy assistance 

  
  

  Thomas Carothers- sr. associate at Carnegie- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp39.pdf 

  Such indirect aid for democracy in the Arab 

  AND 

  contributing to a basic change of regime type. 

  B. Makes no aff topical – all democracy assistance is inherently an offer 

  
  

  USAID, 2007 (June, A STUDY OF POLITICAL PARTY ASSISTANCE IN EASTERN EUROPE AND EURASIA) 

  Election assistance should be a means to an 

  AND 

  should not seek to influence particular electoral outcomes.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Private Tax Credit CP

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: MSU GP | Judge: TCram
  
  

• MB says no – electoral support precondition to other types of engagement 

  
  

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf) 

  Answering the Islamist Question The second policy pillar 

  . 

  AND 

  to Egyptians to decide their own political course. 

  Still links to politics 

  
  

  Margolis, 11 (4/16/2011, Eric, “MUBARAKISM STILL RULES EGYPT,” aspx>&) 

  Much of America’s Mideast security architecture has been 

  AND 

  over alleged “dangers” of Egypt’s democratization. 

  Democracy assistance best way to engage – causes moderation 

  
  

  Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace, ‘7 (Mona, August, “Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy” http://www.ikhwanweb.com/uploads/lib/AXRFDSS83DTR6KF.pdf) 

  Successful Strategy. A successful Islamist engagement strategy 

  AND 

  in the Muslim world between extremism and moderation. 

  ( ) Private assistance shatters U.S. credibility 

  
  

  Dobransky 11 (Steve, Adjunct Professor of Political Science – Cleveland State University, and MA – Ohio University, “The Coming Crisis in U.S. Foreign Aid: Policy Options for the 21st Century”, American Diplomacy, 3-7, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html) 

   Policy Option #6: Promote Private Organizations in addition to USAID and/or the MCC 

   AND 

   with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC US-EU Forum CP

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: MSU GP | Judge: TCram
  
  

• EU won’t try to change the MB’s agenda, they’ll just observe 

  
  

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10 (Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project on Middle East Democracy, January, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam” http://www.brookings.edu//media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam_hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf) 

  The U.S. and EU are 

  AND 

  policy” in case Islamists come to power. 

  EU can’t lead – seen as hypocritical in the Middle East and with Islam and doesn’t carry the international political weight of the US 

  
  

  Ridzam, EU Ambassador, ‘7 (Datuk, May 6, “EU Can Use Past for Future Benefits” The New Straits Times, http://vlex.com/vid/can-use-past-for-future-benefits-78849630) 

  While it is foremost a global economic player 

  AND 

  even disinterested in the rest of the world. 

  Relations resilient - strong cooperation now – even on democracy issues 

   Martonyi 7 – 5 – 11 Minister of foreign affairs of Hungary (Janos, “Europe must continue to do justice to Ronald Reagan's legacy”, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/hungary/8618011/Europe-must-continue-to-do-justice-to-Ronald-Reagans-legacy.html) 

  Yesterday, Britain paid … participation of Washington. 

  Europe doesn’t solve Hamas – the give increased support – opposite aims of the US 

  
  

  Byman, Director Middle East Brookings, ’11 (Daniel, July, “The Challenge of Gaza: Policy Options and Broader Implications” http://www.brookings.edu//media/Files/rc/papers/2011/07_gaza_borders_byman/07_gaza_borders_byman.pdf) 

  Hamas has been trying to cultivate its relationship 

  AND 

  support internationally, Israel’s stock naturally goes down. 

  EU can’t engage Muslim communities – no unified position, money, or global focus 

  
  

  Nakhleh, Director of Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program at CIA, ’10 (Emile, October, “U.S.–EU Partnership and the Muslim World: How Transatlantic Cooperation Will Enhance Engagement” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/userfiles/file/task%20force%20reports/Trans-Atlantic_Papers_2-Nakhleh.pdf) 

   Religious communities have emerged all over the world 

   AND 

   —Indonesia and Turkey—and possibly Morocco. 

  Europe unlikely to tolerate cooperation with Islamism – historical bias towards secularization 

  
  

  Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’11 (Shadi, August 18, “The Major Roadblock to Muslim Assimilation in Europe” The Atlantic, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0818_muslim_europe_hamid.aspx) 

  While dutifully disavowing such groups, my leftish 

  AND 

  of conservative Christians shape Republican policy in America). 

  EU does not want an independent leadership role in the Middle East - they want to compliment our approaches 

  
  

  Durace & Cavatorta, ’09  [Vincent Durace and Francesco Cavatorta, “Strengthening Authoritarian Rule through Democracy Promotion? Examining the paradox of the US and EU Security Strategies: The case of Bin Ali’s Tunisia.” British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Volume 36, Issue 1, pp. 3-19, 2009, pdf>&] 

   Writing in 1998, Perthes noted that, 

  AND 

  the basic values are the same…’ 54

  
  
• 
  
  

Muslim Brotherhood 1AC - Kentucky R4

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: MSU GP | Judge: TCram
  
  

• Plan 

  The United States federal government should make political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party. 

  Engagement Advantage 

  Advantage 1 – Engagement 

  Egyptian demand for US political party assistance is high but a ban on working with the Muslim Brotherhood creates the perception that the US is engineering elections 

   Slavin, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, 11  (4/14, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)  For years, U.S. officials  AND  parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt. 

  Attempts at dialogue with the MB have failed to create a strategic engagement – providing substantive democracy assistance is needed 

   Dorsey, Middle East Institute, 7-5-’11 (James, “US risks missing opportunity to play leading role in Middle East transition” Al Arabiya News, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html)  The ever more evident difficulty in the transition  AND  fulfill those expectations risks sparking disappointment and disillusionment.  

  The MB will say yes to US assistance creating influence with Islamist groups around the world – Say no arguments are based on an outdated monolithic understanding of the MB 

   Husain, Senior Fellow at CFR, 11  (4/5, Feuding Brothers, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/05/feuding_brothers?page

  full)  I was in Cairo to … Islamists can change. 

  Prefer Husain – he has a unique insider perspective 

   Gray, Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics, 07  (The Pathology of Faith, http://www.literaryreview.co.uk/gray_06_07.html)  Nearly all media commentary accepts Islamism at face  AND  universal identity based on rejection of the past. 

  Political Party assistance is key to successful engagement with the MB – Three reasons 

  First – Coalition building 

  The coalition between the MB and secular parties is falling apart 

   El-Hennawy, Senior Reporter for Al-Masry Al-Youm, 8/16  (Brotherhood-led political alliance on verge of collapse, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/486826)  The Democratic Alliance for Egypt, a massive  AND  two key players that remain on board. “ 

  US Political party assistance is key to form secular-Islamist coalitions that are necessary for moderation and engagement 

   Yacoubian, Special Advisor to the United States Institute of Peace, 07  (Special Report 190, Engaging islamists and Promoting Democracy a Preliminary assessment)  Cross-Party Cooperation. A crucial part  AND  case offers important insights to be emulated elsewhere. 

  Second - Institutional Knowledge 

  Political party assistance advances our institutional knowledge of the political parties we work with 

   HED 08 [Higher Education for Development]  (2008 Special Request for Applications: Evaluation and Analysis of USAID’s Political Party Strengthening Programs, http://www.hedprogram.org/CurrentRFAs/tabid/66/Default.aspx?itemid=177)  For over 15 years, …of political parties.  

  The MB will accept the plan because they recognize the utility of US democracy assistance but improving our institutional knowledge is a prerequisite to engagement Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, 10 

   (“The Islamist Response to Repression”, http://www.brookings.edu//media/Files/rc/papers/2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)  Islamist leaders often speak of an “American  AND  ad-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 

  Third - Party Unity 

  Status quo attempts to engineer elections split the MB – causes radicalization that makes engagement impossible 

   Guseynov, Contributing Writer - Middle Eastern Affairs, 7-10-’11  (Enver, “Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt” http://www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984#ixzz1VVTJXVDL)  Not surprisingly, efforts … insecurity in the Middle East. 

  Engagement with the Muslim brotherhood is a key mechanism to restrain militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah from attacking Israel 

   Saleh, Journalist with Reuters, 11  (6/30, Analysis: U.S. overtures to Egypt Islamists show pragmatism, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/30/us-egypt-usa-brotherhood-idUSTRE75T6HF20110630)  A US decision to resume … for Political and Strategic Studies. 

  The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is the best starting point to solve – repairing our relations spills over to create broader cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region 

   Stacher, Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘7 (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe, http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)  Islamist political groups are incredibly popular in the  AND  group in the region than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. 

  Israel conflict inevitable in the status quo – 2 scenarios 

  First – Hamas: 

  Hamas will trigger a war with Israel to boost MB support in the election and to help the UN Palestine vote 

   DeVore, Foreign Affairs at Defense Department, 11  (Chuck, May 19, “The Next Middle East War” Human Events Special Report, http://www.nh4israel.org/uploads/5/7/3/3/5733440/thenextmiddleeastwar_special_report.pdf)  Unremarked by most Western … blockade of Israel. 

  Israel/Hamas war causes democratic backsliding – ensures conflict throughout the Middle East 

   Ibish, Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, 11  (3/23, We Now Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Conflict, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/23/we_now_return_to_our_regularly_scheduled_conflict?page=0,0)  And now, with escalating … for the status quo. 

  Second – Hezbollah: 

  Offensive operations by Hezbollah will ignite another Israel/Lebanon war 

  Saab, Fellow at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 11  (August, THE NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are Preparing for It)  The prevailing peace along … preparation in Lebanon and Israel 

  Renewed conflict with Hezbollah spreads throughout the region – draws in Iran 

   Gerges, Professor Middle East Politics London School of Economics, ’10 (Fawaz, July, “The Next War? The Danger of the Lebanese-Israeli Border Igniting” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, http://ispu.org/pdfs/315_PB_ISPU-Next%20War.pdf)  London: In an important and alarming report  AND  war would come to the entire Middle East. 

  Middle east war draws in major powers and causes global nuclear war 

   Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, 09  (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)  Strategic stability in … risk for the entire world. 

  Indonesia Advantage 

  Advantage 2 – Indonesia 

  Excluding the Muslim Brotherhood from political party support fuels perceptions of US favoritism towards liberal secularism – this is the root cause of Muslim resentment 

   Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)  On the ten-year anniversary of the  AND  with the Muslim world will become more amicable. 

  US actions towards the Middle East shape Muslim opinion in Indonesia 

   Khan, Professor – Political Science – Adrian University, 02  (Nice But Tough: A Framework for U.S. Foreign Policy in the Muslim World, Brown Journal of World Affairs, IX(1), Spring, p. 356-359  These issues are … think of the United States.  

  A perceived war against Islam is causing anti-American resentment in Indonesia to skyrocket even though Indonesia has traditionally been supportive 

   Labott, Senior State Department Producer, 9/7  (Outreach yields little improvement in Muslim view of US, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/07/outreach-yields-little-improvement-in-muslim-view-of-us/)  But with a few exceptions, the Muslim  AND  region: "It's the policies, stupid." 

  US policy in other areas like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel are all secondary concerns to US policy towards the Muslim Brotherhood 

   VOA News 9/1  (US Response to 9/11 Taints Muslim Image of America, Lexis)  "There's the bad America that doesn't always  AND  says so far there has been no contact. 

  Radical Islamist groups in Indonesia are small but powerful – terrorist activity is increasing despite success of counterterrorism operations 

   Scarpello, Journalist, analyst and consultant covering Southeast Asia, 11  (5/5, To Contain Terror, Indonesia Must Confront Its Demons, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8748/to-contain-terror-indonesia-must-confront-its-demons)  With Indonesia experiencing … against religious intolerance. 

  Removing the boycott of the Muslim Brotherhood signals acceptance of Islamic democracy and changes perceptions of US actions as being anti-Islam 

   The National citing Steven Kull 11  (6/8, Why are Muslims hostile to the US?, Lexis)  The political psychologist Steven Kull finds that US  AND  "that's certainly going to feed this fear." 

  The aff reduces anti-American resentment in Indonesia and quells terrorism throughout Southeast Asia 

  Kay, Fellow – Pacific Forum - CSIS, 05   (Indonesian Public Perceptions of the U.S. and Their Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, Pacific Forum CSIS, Issues & Insights Vol.5–No.4)  This paper aims to analyze influences on public  AND  in preventing radicalism to flourish in Southeast Asia. 

  Indonesian terrorism is the key internal link to piracy in the Strait of Malacca – causes a major disruption of Asian trade 

   Kay, Fellow – Pacific Forum - CSIS, ‘5 (Indonesian Public Perceptions of the U.S. and Their Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, Pacific Forum CSIS, Issues & Insights Vol.5–No.4)  A third set of interests reflects Indonesia’s geographic  AND  Al-Qaeda’s terrorist networks in Indonesia.”16 

  Collapse of Asian trade causes global nuclear war 

   Auslin, Resident Scholar AEI, ‘9 (Michael, February 6, “Averting Disaster” Daily Standard, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.29339/pub_detail.asp)  As they deal with a collapsing world economy  AND  be paying the price for years to come. 

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC T - DA = Elections

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 5 | Opponent: Gonzaga | Judge: Struth
  
  

• We meet 

  
  

  Thomas Carothers- sr. associate at Carnegie- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp39.pdf 

  INDIRECTLY PROMOTING DEMOCRACY The second identifiable U. 

  AND 

  understand U.S. policy more accurately.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Israel DA

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 5 | Opponent: Gonzaga KM | Judge: Struth
  
  

• Most qualified studies prove the risk of Malaccan piracy is increasing 

  
  

  Baird, Professor Queensland U of Tech, ’11 (Rachel, July 6, “Transnational security issues in the Asian maritime environment: responding to maritime piracy” Australian Journal of International Affairs, Taylor and Francis Online) *ReCAAP = The Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia 

  Economic growth in the Asian region depends heavily 

  AND 

  global economic impact’ (Storey 2008: 111).

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC SCAF Backlash DA

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 5 | Opponent: Gonzaga KM | Judge: Struth
  
  

• ) No SCAF backlash – connections to US too strong 

  
  

  Dunne, Scholar-Middle East Institute, 11  (2/12, Former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, After Mubarak, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/) 

  First, the ability of the United States 

  AND 

  this program and retrenchment if it does not. 

  2) Aff solves the impact – MB/Secular coalitions key to check the military 

  
  

  Masoud, Professor - public policy – Harvard, 11 

  (Fall, Washington Quarterly, Liberty, Democracy, and Discord in Egypt) 

  The contention between liberals and Islamists comes at 

  AND 

  principal goal of Egypt’s liberals and democrats alike.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Warming Trade-off DA

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 5 | Opponent: Gonzaga KM | Judge: Struth
  
  

• Plan is cheap – all political party assistance for all parties in all countries is $68 million 

  
  

  Carothers, Democracy at Carnegie, ‘6 (Thomas, “Confronting the Weakest Link: Aiding Political Parties in New Democracies” p 85) 

  IRI and NDI had overall budgets in 2005 

  AND 

  approximately $68 million combined to party aid. 

  New economic and government assistance to Middle East passed last week 

  
  

  Washington Post 9/22  (Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_story.html) 

  For its part, the Senate Appropriations Committee 

  AND 

  numerous visits from U.S. officials. 

  Impacts inev – even if we could get to zero emissions, temperatures rise until the year 3000 

  
  

  Solomon et al, Chairwoman, IPCC, ‘9 (Susan- member of the US National Academy of Sciences, the European Academy of Sciences, and the Academy of Sciences of France, Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Chairman of the IPCC, February 10, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions” PNAS, Vol 106, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf) 

  Over the 20th century, the atmospheric concentrations 

  AND 

  to the peak level of carbon dioxide reached.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Gonzaga CP

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 5 | Opponent: Gonzaga KM | Judge: Struth
  
  

• CP was US declare it will support whoever wins the elections, tell MB we will support them as long as they aren't assholes towards Israel, support religious freedom, and give assistance to Muslims in Indonesia 

  Engagement with the MB requires a clear signal from the US – the counterplan will be seen as coercion 

  
  

  Faris, Professor – Poli Sci – Roosevelt, 11 

  (Why Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood isn't the Islamic bogeyman, 

  http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0214/Why-Egypt-s-Muslim-Brotherhood-isn-t-the-Islamic-bogeyman/%28page%29/3) 

  US can form new relationship Any post- 

  AND 

  more, and our ideals demand nothing less. 

  The counterplan can’t solve institutional knowledge – USAID involvement key to enhancing US governmental 3) Conditioned assistance will be rejected – seen as excess US meddling – aff is best middle ground 

  
  

  Allam, Gulf Times, 11 

  (Hannah, April 7, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=444804&version=1&template_id=46&parent_id=26) 

  Foreign aid typically comes ... economists say. 

  The CP will be seen as more of the status quo’s heavy handed coercion – can’t solve and even if MB says yes there is no enforcement 

  
  

  Youngs, Professor - Warwick, 10 

  (Director General – FRIDE, “The End of Democratic Conditionality: Good Riddance?”, org/publication/ 806/the-end-of-democratic-conditionality:-good-riddance>&) 

  Should this move away from democratic conditionality be 

  AND 

  world’s heavy-handed domination of international politics. 

  Squo solves 

  
  

  Hussein 9-6 (Emadeldin-, Translated By Asmaa Sharafeldin, “Pliers of U.S. Aid”, com/News/120195/pliers-of-u-s-aid/>&) 

  Clearly, many people forgot that U. 

  AND 

  Gaza, all for the benefit of Israel! 

  The US has already tried to engage Indonesian Muslims – it was rejected and increased anti-US resentment 

  
  

  Farsetta, Senior researcher of the Center for Media and Democracy, 05  (USAID in Indonesia: Expecting Waves of Gratitude, http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/2005Q4/usaid) 

  Given her record so far, it may be … keep Indonesia in their pockets." 

  Still links to politics 

  
  

  Margolis, 11 (4/16/2011, Eric, “MUBARAKISM STILL RULES EGYPT,” aspx>&) 

  Much of America’s Mideast security architecture has been 

  AND 

  over alleged “dangers” of Egypt’s democratization.

  
  
• 
  
  

IMET 1AC

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth | Judge: Ozzy
  
  

• 1AC - WAKE

  S1 – Transition

  The advantage is Egyptian military credibility

  Scenario 1 is the Transition

  Disrespect for civilian rule by the Egyptian military has caused the public to turn against them – threatens a successful transition by undermining their credibility as a facilitator

  Al-Anani, Scholar in International Affairs at Durham, 10/19 (Egypt’s souring transition, http://www.opendemocracy.net/khalil-al-anany/egypt’s-souring-transition)

  Recent bloody clashes between the Egyptian military and

  AND

  led by a person in a military uniform.

   

  Even if the military hands over control to the civilian government they will dominate from the shadows ensuring a long term vicious cycle of protest and crackdown

  Traub, Contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine, 9/23 (Is There Light At The End of Egypt's Tunnel?,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/the_storm_before_the_calm?page=0,0)

  Egypt is a mess. This month,

  AND

  schedule, and thus its own hapless tenure.

  The failure of Egyptian democratization will boost anti-Israel scapegoating across the region, but a democratic Egypt will be a stabilizing force

  Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11  

  (Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

  Gaza offers the risk of a high-profile … that could spiral into disaster.

  Israel scapegoating causes aggressive nuclear response – even conventional attack causes nuclear escalation

  Beres, Professor International Law Purdue, ‘7 (Louis Rene, Spring, “Israel’s Uncertain Strategic Future” Parameters, p 37-54, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/Articles/07spring/beres.htm)

  How a Nuclear War Might Begin Israel remains

  AND

  dedicated elimination of enemy leadership and scientific elites.

  Most likely scenario for global escalation – Middle East instability draws in major powers

  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, 09 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

  AND

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Egypt transition failure collapses the global economy

  Schuman, Economic correspondent for TIME, 11 (2/2, Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery? curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/)

  At first glance, the upheaval on the

  AND

  might even experience a double-dip recession.

  Global economic collapse causes nuclear war

  Mead 09 Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2

  The greatest danger both to U.S

  AND

  track, we may still have to fight.

  S2 – The purge

  Sustained Military domination of the civilian government will result in an Iranian style purge of the military

  Abaza, Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10/22 (Egypt's Army is failing to build consensus for democracy,

  http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/22/opinion/abaza-egypt-government/)

  Egypt's position is precarious enough … the country's transition the way that they have.

  An overthrow of the military would be a devastating blow to US global military operations – we would not be able to adapt to loss of Egyptian facilities and air space

  Wood, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, 11 (2/5, At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

  Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright

  AND

  That should serve as a cautionary tale.''

  Primacy dramatically reduces the risk of great power conflict – power projection stabilizes regional conflict and dampens miscalculation

  Walt, Professor of International Relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, ‘2 (Stephen, Spring, “American Primacy: Its Prospects and Pitfalls” Naval War College Review, Vol 55 Issue 2, p 9, Proquest)

  A second consequence of U.S.

  AND

  interesting” decades like the 1930s or 1940s.

  Specifically, naval power projection is key to preventing war in Pakistan and global conflict escalation

  Cropsey, Senior Fellow at Hudson, ’10 (Seth, September/October, “Ebb Tide” The American Interest, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=858)

  Only one statement can be made with certainty

  AND

  abject weakness would be an invitation to calamity.

  Instability in Pakistan causes war with India and global nuclear escalation

  Pitt, 9 “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” (Managing Editor of truthout.org), NYT and internationally bestselling author www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)

  But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a

  AND

  world on a collision course with unimaginable disaster.

  US decline is not inevitable – it is built on a strong foundation of military power projection

  Beitelman, PhD Candidate at Dalhousie U, ’11 (David, September, “U.S. Remains the Only Superpower” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1739)

  Superpower. We’ve all heard the term yet

  AND

  it’s important that we remember what they mean.

  Plan

  The United States federal government should offer military education democracy programming for Egypt to substantially increase Egyptian participation in military education democracy programming.

  Contention 2 – Solvency

  Contention 2 is Solvency

  Increasing the democracy components of IMET is key to a successful Egyptian democratic transition

  Cook, Senior Fellow at CFR, 09 (Political Instability in Egypt)

  A different strategy would be necessary if U

  AND

  and independent observers to monitor Egypt’s presidential elections.

  Military domination is not inevitable – IMET democracy programs can facilitate legitimate civilian control

  Henry, Professor - Government - Texas, 11 (2/21, A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67475/clement-m-henry-and-robert-springborg/a-tunisian-solution-for-egypts-military?page=show)

  The popular uprisings that swept Egypt and Tunisia

  AND

  25 movement: “Tunisia is the solution.”

  The military doesn’t need to disappear, it just needs a different role – stepping down allows SCAF to operate as an interest group

  Harb, Senior Program Officer - U.S. Institute of Peace, 03 (The Egyptian Military in Politics: Disengagement or Accommodation? Middle East Journal, Vol. 57, No. 2)

  This article argues that the extent of the

  AND

  in society rather than an agenda for control.

  SCAF wants to give up control – influencing lower-level officers is key to the transition

  Ottaway, Senior Associate – Middle East – Carnegie, 11/3

  (Egypt’s Democracy: Between the Military, Islamists, and Illiberal Democrats, www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/11/03/egypt-s-democracy-between-military-islamists-and-illiberal-democrats/6lzl)

  Judging simply on the official pronouncements … to exercising power in the spotlight.

  Empirically, officers who have participated in IMET have not been involved in violent protestor crackdowns – expanding IMET is key to solve

  McKelvey, Senior editor at The American Prospect, 10/13 (U.S.-Funded Democracy Crushers?, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/13/egyptian-military-u-s-funded-democracy-crushers.html)

  The transformation of the Egyptian soldier’s image,

  AND

  to show restraint during the Arab Spring uprising.

  Military aid now is focused on weapons and warfighting which sends the wrong signal – enhancing the non-kinetic role of the US army by increasing democracy programming in IMET is key to stable Egyptian civil/military relations

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires

  AND

  therefore increase the visibility of its IMET programs.

  Egypt will say yes – the US has an established previous relationship

  Mitchell, Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)

  Close partnership with Egypt should be a cornerstone

  AND

  Israel‘s suspicions of a Southern threat.

  Second, Second the US has unique leverage

  Marshall, President and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute, 11 (5/25, Arab Spring in the Balance, Lexis)

  Americans, conditioned by harsh experience to expect

  AND

  at least some of them a decisive push.

   

  ~\~\

  
  

• The Advantage: Egyptian military credibility

  Scenario one – Transition failure

  Disrespect for civilian rule by the Egyptian military has caused the public to turn against them – threatens a successful transition by undermining their credibility as a facilitator
  Al-Anani, Scholar in International Affairs at Durham, 10/19 (Egypt’s souring transition, http://www.opendemocracy.net/khalil-al-anany/egypt’s-souring-transition)
  Recent bloody clashes between the Egyptian military and
  AND
  led by a person in a military uniform.

  The military is both cause and cure of Egypt’s problems – it’s the only actor able to lead the country safely through transition
  Goodspeed, Award winning reporter with the National Post, 11
  (2/3, Peter Goodspeed: The fate of Egypt rests with its army, fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/03/peter-goodspeed-the-fate-of-egypt-rests-with-its-army/)
  Peter Goodspeed: The fate of … in the country.

  Even if the military hands over control to the civilian government they will dominate from the shadows ensuring a long term vicious cycle of protest and crackdown
  Traub, Contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine, 9/23 (Is There Light At The End of Egypt's Tunnel?,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/the_storm_before_the_calm?page=0,0)
  Egypt is a mess. This month,
  AND
  schedule, and thus its own hapless tenure.

  Conflict between military and civilian forces will become a civil war – ensures sustained instability
  WSJ 10/15 (Egypt's Fading Spring, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903927204576574981701044952.html)
  The worst violence since Hosni Mubarak's ouster is
  AND
  transition back on track and win public support.

  The transition in Egypt determines the course of the entire region – if it fails than conflict will spread, but if it succeeds than Egypt will be a stabilizing force
  Dunne, Director - Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, 11 (July, EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION, FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE)
  The Egyptian revolution is a turning point to
  AND
  , a stabilising force in a turbulent region.

  A prolonged period of instability in Egypt causes war throughout the Middle East including Israel/Iran nuclear exchange and global economic collapse
  CBS News 11 (2/2, Analysis: Egypt Turmoil Will Reshape U.S. Role, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/01/world/main7307786.shtml)
  The protests rocking Egypt could change the political
  AND
  .S. economic recovery, he said.

  Israel-Iran nuclear war most likely scenario for global escalation
  Ivashov, Analyst at Strategic Culture Foundation, ‘7 (Leonid, April 21, “Iran : the Threat of a Nuclear War” http://www.megachip.info/modules.php?name=Sections&op=viewarticle&artid=3871))
  What might cause the force major event of
  AND
  in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

  Middle East war draws in major powers and causes global nuclear war
  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, 09 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)
  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
  AND
  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Global economic collapse causes nuclear war
  Mead 09 Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2
  The greatest danger both to U.S
  AND
  track, we may still have to fight.

  Scenario two – The purge
  Sustained Military domination of the civilian government will result in an Iranian style purge of the military
  Abaza, Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10/22 (Egypt's Army is failing to build consensus for democracy,
  http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/22/opinion/abaza-egypt-government/)
  Egypt's position is … way that they have.

  An overthrow of the military would be a devastating blow to US global military operations – we would not be able to adapt to loss of Egyptian facilities and air space
  Wood, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, 11 (2/5, At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)
  Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright
  AND
  That should serve as a cautionary tale.''

  Decline of US military primacy provokes global nuclear conflict
  Zhang, Researcher Carnegie, and Shi, Consultant for Eurasia Group and World Bank, ’11 (Yuhan and Lin, January 22, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry” East Asia Forum, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/)
  Over the past two decades, no other
  AND
  will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

  US decline is not inevitable – assuming nothing crazy happens like losing Egypt the US will maintain military dominance
  Beitelman, PhD Candidate at Dalhousie U, ’11 (David, September, “U.S. Remains the Only Superpower” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1739)
  Superpower. We’ve all heard the term yet
  AND
  it’s important that we remember what they mean.

  Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase International Military Education Training democracy programming for Egypt.
  Contention 2 - Solvency
  Increasing the democracy components of IMET key to successful Egyptian democratic transition
  Cook, Senior Fellow at CFR, 09 (Political Instability in Egypt)
  A different strategy would be necessary if U
  AND
  and independent observers to monitor Egypt’s presidential elections.

  Military domination is not inevitable – IMET democracy programs can facilitate legitimate civilian control
  Henry, Professor - Government - Texas, 11 (2/21, A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67475/clement-m-henry-and-robert-springborg/a-tunisian-solution-for-egypts-military?page=show)
  The popular uprisings that swept Egypt and Tunisia
  AND
  25 movement: “Tunisia is the solution.”

  Empirically, officers who have participated in IMET have not been involved in violent protestor crackdowns – expanding IMET is key to solve
  McKelvey, Senior editor at The American Prospect, 10/13 (U.S.-Funded Democracy Crushers?, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/13/egyptian-military-u-s-funded-democracy-crushers.html)
  The transformation of the Egyptian soldier’s image,
  AND
  to show restraint during the Arab Spring uprising.

  Military aid now is focused on weapons and warfighting which sends the wrong signal – enhancing the non-kinetic role of the US army by increasing democracy programming in IMET is key to stable Egyptian civil/military relations
  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)
  In view of the pro-democratic desires
  AND
  therefore increase the visibility of its IMET programs.

  The Philippines and Poland prove that the US can enhance civilian control in Egypt despite military intransigence
  Ross, President and CEO of EWRoss International LLC, 11 (1/31, U.S. LEVERS OF INFLUENCE IN EGYPT Military Ties are Critical, http://www.ewross.com/us_levers_of_influence_in_egypt_military_ties_are_critical_PF.htm)
  Whatever the situation, the region will never
  AND
  by doing the right thing for them now.

  Egypt will say yes to the US – first, the US has an established previous relationship
  Mitchell, Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)
  Close partnership with Egypt should be a cornerstone
  AND
  Israel‘s suspicions of a Southern threat.

  Second the US has unique leverage
  Marshall, President and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute, 11 (5/25, Arab Spring in the Balance, Lexis)
  Americans, conditioned by harsh experience to expect
  AND
  at least some of them a decisive push. 

   

  
  
  

2AC EU CP

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth | Judge:
  
  

• Only the US can has enough influence to restrain Egypt’s military 

  
  

  Ash, Historian, political writer and Guardian columnist, 11 

  (5/18, Obama can now define the third great project of Euro-Atlantic partnership, www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/18/obama-define-great-euro-atlantic-project) 

  I do not say this for … the new chapter. 

  Europe has no influence in Egypt due to US aid to SCAF – makes Egypt irrelevant for EU cred 

  
  

  Gowan, Director Center on International Coop at NYU, 2-2-’11 (Richard, “What Egypt Means for the EU” http://www.themarknews.com/articles/3973-what-egypt-means-for-the-eu) 

  Yet for all the talk of a “ 

  AND 

  way that we remember the 1956 Suez debacle? 

  No unified EU strategy for military engagement 

  
  

  Larivé, PhD Candidate IR U of Florida,’11 (Maxime, February, “The European Union, Tunisia and Egypt: Norms versus Interests -Thoughts and Recommendations” European Union Miami Analysis Series, http://aei.pitt.edu/29774/2/LariveEgyptEUMA2011edi.pdf) 

  However, the implementation of such a strategy 

  AND 

  , and when necessary, robust intervention.” 20

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Bioterror Add-on

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth | Judge: Ozzy
  
  

• Terrorism 

  a) The aff is key to send a credible signal of US support for democratization – that’s 1AC Lahoud evidence. That’s key to solve terrorism 

  
  

  Zarate, Senior Advisor CSIS, 11 

  (Summer, Washington Quarterly, The battle for Reform with Al Qaeda) 

  Admittedly, in many quarters, the United 

  AND 

  beginning of the end of the long war. 

  b) Risk of bioterror attack high – most recent ev 

  
  

  NYT 10/26 

  (How Ready Are We for Bioterrorism?, www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/magazine/how-ready-are-we-for-bioterrorism.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1) 

  A decade after the 9/11 … model. This is never going to work.” 

  c) Extinction 

  
  

  Ochs, has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine and the website: www.freefromterror.net, past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, 6-9-2K2 (Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html) 

  Of all the weapons of mass destruction, 

  AND 

  then patriotism is the highest of all crimes.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Iran Soft Power DA

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth | Judge:
  
  

• US giving monetary support to Egypt now 

  
  

  Kellerhals, 9-28-’11 (Merle, “Egypt: Clinton and Egypt's Amr Hold Crucial Bilateral Talks” http://allafrica.com/stories/201109290755.html) 

  The United States fully supports the Egyptian people 

  AND 

  benefit from the opportunities that the changes bring.  

  Egypt elections outcome make hardline aggression towards Iran inevitable 

   Schenker 11 (David, Washington Institute, “Egypt’s Enduring Challenge – Policy Recommendations”, 25 July 2011, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename

  ) 

  Reestablish Egypt as a regional actor and shore 

  AND 

  in a position to take on these responsibilities. 

  Absent the plan Israel will act aggressively towards Iran – triggering perception of containment 

   Lynch 11 (Marc, Senior Fellow at the Center fro a New American Security, Prof. of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, “Upheaval: US Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”. June 2011, pdf) 

  The second “ticking clock” is the 

  AND 

  reconsider it based on shifting strategic considerations.12 

  Iran can’t lash out- economics and lack of hardline leaders checks 

  
  

  White 7 (Rebecca N., 12/4, pg. http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=16266) 

  But, as Cordesman noted, Iran’s retaliatory 

  AND 

  clear” how the other side will react. 

  US force posture solves escalation 

  
  

  Davis et al – senior political scientist at RAND - 6/6/11, Iran’s Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices, Prepared for the United States Air Force, RAND, (Lynn E. Davis, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, James T. Quinlivan, Paul Steinberg), pdf>& 

  Current U.S. Conventional and Nuclear 

   AND 

   of Iran misreading U.S. intentions.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Credit DA

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth | Judge: Ozzy
  
  

• Super Committee deadlock will force credit rating downgrade now 

  
  

  Clabough, Reporter for New American, 10/24  (Another U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade Expected, www.thenewamerican.com/economy/sectors-mainmenu-46/9507-another-us-credit-rating-downgrade-expected) 

  Back in August, when … concern discretionary spending. 

  IMET is a tiny fraction of the budget 

  
  

  Reynolds, DISAM Commander, ‘3 (Ronald- Doctorate of Public Administration from the University of Alabama, Spring, “Is Expanded International Military Education and Training reaching the right audience? – Perspectives” DISAM Journal) 

  IMET has not been a substantial part of 

  AND 

  have received training through IMET. (5) 

  Plan is an internal trade-off within IMET – your ev says normal means 

  
  

  DSCA, ‘8 (Defense Security Cooperation Agency, August 19, “IMET Project Assessment” Naval Postgraduate School of International Graduate Studies) 

  Expanded IMET In 1991, in recognition of 

  AND 

  training that met the E-IMET objectives. 

  New funding for autism just passed 

  
  

  APP, 9/30 (Asbury Park Press, “Obama OKs renewing autism research funds,” 9/30/2011, http://www.app.com/article/20110930/NJNEWS/309300119/Obama-OKs-renewing-autism-research-funds?odyssey=nav|head) 

  WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama signed an autism 

  AND 

  bill to provide the money in the future. 

  Defense cuts won’t happen – all posturing 

  
  

  LA Times, 12-25-’11 (Lisa Mascaro, “Congress works to avert defense budget cuts” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/25/nation/la-na-defense-supercommittee-20111026) 

  Weeks after agreeing to impose mandatory spending cuts 

  AND 

  We think we could succeed," McCain said. 

  Downgrade inevitable because congress doesn’t care 

  
  

  Financial Post 10/27 

  (U.S. lawmakers unfazed by downgrade risk, business.financialpost.com/2011/10/27/u-s-lawmakers-unfazed-by-downgrade-risk/) 

  A growing number … serious concern to all policymakers.” 

  Current spending won’t determine credit rating 

  
  

  Reuters, 10/27 (“Another US downgrade 'won't harm economy'; A growing number of US lawmakers do not think another downgrade of the country's AAA rating will harm America's economy, raising questions about how much pressure Congress is under to fix the intractable budget deficit,” 10/27/2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8854472/Another-US-downgrade-wont-harm-economy.html) 

  Congressman Michael Grimm, a Republican, told 

  AND 

  worst possible outcome from the debt limit crisis."

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC China Bashing

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth | Judge: Ozzy
  
  

• Trade conflict inevitable but won’t kill relations 

  
  

  Feigenbaum, Asia CFR, ’10 (Evan, October 19, “Reluctant Warriors” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/19/reluctant_warriors?page=full) 

   In the United States, campaign ads this 

  AND 

  will ensure that conflicts persist into the future. 

  Boehner won’t push the plan – 

  First – Obama will circumvent congress with unilateral executive action to get his agenda 

  
  

  Stokes, 10/24 (Bruce, 10/24/2011, Obama’s Other Power Tools; If Congress won’t help, the president can still use his executive leverage to push ahead with progressive goals,” com/daily/how-obama-can-push-a-progressive-agenda-without-congress-20111019>&) 

  Hands tied? Not so much. The 

  AND 

  have to channel his initiatives through executive actions. 

  Second, plan implemented by the DOD and funded by the DOS 

  
  

  Moskowitz, Policy Planning Office at Office of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, ‘8 (Elisa, December, “The creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal) 

  Funding for IMET (and other Security Assistance 

  AND 

  .S.-origin equipment. (3) 

  Democratic engagement with Egyptian military is a major foreign policy win 

  
  

  Lane, The News Tribune, 2-15-’11 (Charles, “Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt” http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/02/15/1545321/obama-can-reap-political-capital.html) 

  Still, even after the resignation of Hosni 

  AND 

  in Egypt over the rest of his term. 

  Obama will veto 

  
  

  Tonelson, Research Fellow at the U.S. Business & Industry Educational Foundation, 10/26 

  (Alan, 10/26/2001, “Currency Manipulation as Political Football,” http://americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=4891) 

  Even as Boehner was speaking, … passage in modified form. 

  E-IMET not controversial 

  
  

  Moskowitz, Policy Planning Office at Office of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, ‘8 (Elisa, December, “The creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal) 

  The catalyst for the initiative was the Foreign 

  AND 

  met the intent of Congress. (12)  

  Republicans won’t take it up and they don’t want China addressed through legislation – PC not matter 

   English News 10/26 (RTHK English News Agency, “Republicans oppose currency bill”, 26 October 2011, http://rthk.hk/rthk/news/englishnews/20111026/news_20111026_56_793547.htm ,) 

  Lawmakers from the Republican Party have aired US 

   AND 

   House while Obama's fellow Democrats control the Senate. 

  Biden, not Obama, does the personal lobbying for legislation 

  
  

  Wilson, 10/9 - covers the 

  AND 

  Post, “The loner president,” Factiva) 

  Obama prefers wrestling with policy over engaging with 

  AND 

  ranked as most important - above all else.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC T - Democracy Assistance

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: MoState | Judge: Seth Gannon
  
  

• Counter-interpretation – 

  
  

   (b) Sense of Congress regarding mechanisms for delivering assistance 

   AND 

   and delivery mechanisms for United States democracy assistance. 

  US Code, ’10 (“§ 8262. UNITED STATES DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS” Title 22, Chapter 89, Subchapter VI, 

  http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/usc_sec_22_00008262----000-.html) 

  We meet – IMET civil-military programming is democracy assistance 

  
  

  Carothers, Director of Democracy at Carnegie, ’99 (Thomas, “Aiding Democracy Abroad: the Learning Curve” p 196-197) 

  An additional area of democracy aid that merits 

  AND 

  involved in human rights abuses and military dictatorships. 

  Prefer our interpretation – 

  Grounded literature – Carothers is the most qualified source on the topic 

  
  

  Brookings, ‘4 (“REVIEW: Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion” http://www.brookings.edu/press/Books/2004/criticalmission.aspx) 

  Demand for practical knowledge and lessons about how 

  AND 

  -date, comprehensive bibliography on democracy promotion. 

  ABOUT THE AUTHOR Thomas Carothers Thomas Carothers is 

  AND 

  expert on U.S. foreign policy. 

  SELECTED REVIEWS "Carothers's examinations have helped us 

  AND 

  Robert Kagan, author, of PARADISE AND POWER 

  Core of the topic – excluding military democracy assistance is arbitrary – turns limits and predictability 

  
  

  Phillips, Director of National Committee on American Foreign Policy, and Mitchell, International Politics Prof at Columbia, ‘8 (David and Lincoln, May, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance” American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol 30 Issue 3, p 156-175, InformaWorld) 

  Decades of successful democracy assistance as well as 

  AND 

  lest the opportunity to shape outcomes be lost. 

  Aid is not just one thing – even if IMET does security assistance that doesn’t mean it’s not democracy assistance 

  
  

  Tarnoff and Nowels, Specialists of Foreign Affairs and National Defense at CRS, ‘4 (Curt and Larry, April 15, “Foreign Aid: An Introductory Overview of U.S. Programs and Policy” http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/98-916.pdf) 

  Arguably, from the end of World War 

  AND 

  of good governance and free market economic reform. 

  No unpredictable aff ground – even if IMET also does security assistance, the parts of IMET the plan increases are democracy assistance 

  
  

  DSCA, ‘8 (Defense Security Cooperation Agency, August 19, “IMET Project Assessment” Naval Postgraduate School of International Graduate Studies) 

  Expanded IMET In 1991, in recognition of 

  AND 

  and non-military actors in recipient countries.

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Saudi DA

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: MoState | Judge: Seth Gannon
  
  

• ~~\~~\

  
  

• US giving monetary support to Egypt now
  Kellerhals, 9-28-’11 (Merle, “Egypt: Clinton and Egypt's Amr Hold Crucial Bilateral Talks” http://allafrica.com/stories/201109290755.html)
  The United States fully supports the Egyptian people
  AND
  benefit from the opportunities that the changes bring.
  Other factors will maintain the alliance
  Gause, 11 – teaches political science at the University of Vermont (F. Gregory, Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?, Foreign Policy, August 9, 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary)
  While the sectarian issue should be a concern
  AND
  it is hardly on the brink of divorce.
  Saudi strains don’t mean collapse and the revolutions will increase relations in the long run
  Zeigler, 11 - Research Director for the Saudi-U.S. Trade Group (3/18/2011, Lucien Zeigler, “Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After ‘Arab Spring’?”, http://informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/)
  Writing in the UK’s Financial Times, Eurasia
  AND
  ” should remain intact for years to come.
  US-Saudi relations low now – plan not key
  Ottaway, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 9-23-’11 (David, “Uncle Sam and the Saudi Split” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/uncle_sam_and_the_saudi_split)
  Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's richest and
  AND
  the unsettled U.S.-Saudi relationship.
  Instability is a bigger internal link
  Boucek, baller Saudi expert, 11 (Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa. He is a leading authority on disengagement and rehabilitation programs for Islamist militants and extremists and a recognized expert on terrorism, security, and stability issues in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, “US Saudi relations the shadow of the Arab spring”, 21 June 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1s3)
  We have seen the emergence of greater tensions
  AND
  for the United States what Saudi Arabia does. 

  
  
  

2AC Data Framework

• Tournament: Harvard | Round: 6 | Opponent: Texas GM | Judge: Vint
  
  

• ~~\~~\

  
  

• Having diversity of approaches to evaluating policy is key – their framework is too restrictive
  Walt, Professor IR Harvard, ’11 (Stephen, October 19, “Lessons for the social sciences”
  http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/19/lessons_for_the_social_sciences)
  Needless to say, I like this argument
  AND
  the increasingly arcane worlds of traditional disciplinary departments.
  Especially true in the context of the economy – their framework is what caused the financial crisis
  Kay, Professor Economics London School of Econ, ’11 (John- Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and Member of the Scottish Government’s Council of Economic Advisers, “The Map is Not the Territory: An Essay on the State of Economics,”  http://www.johnkay.com/2011/10/04/the-map-is-not-the-territory-an-essay-on-the-state-of-economics)
  ‘The economic approach’ as described by Becker
  AND
  while the world around them was falling apart.
  Their author concludes neg- experts who outline specific scenarios and put aside ideology can make predictions with God-like accuracy.
  Tetlock ‘6
  (Philip-, Mitchell Professor of Leadership @ UC Berkeley, Author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Oct. 18, Plain Dealer, “One idea - or many One idea - or a myriad; The fox and the hedgehog as the prediction menagerie or The experts call it An expert call”, Lexis; Jacob)
  Experts hate to be pinned …How Can We Know?"

  
  
  

Round Reports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Aff: Cal GW 

  Round 7 Tournament: Shirley 

  vs: KU 

  Judge: G. Lundeen 

  
  

   

   

  Plan Text: same as round 1 

  
  

   

   

  1ac Advantages: Egypt Military Credibility (ME War, global economy), Purge (Heg, naval projection, Indo-Pak) 

  
  

   

   

  2ac Offense 

  
  

   T: CI—DA = includes rule of law, IMET = rule of law 

   EU: US influence key, EU can’t fund NED, bio-terrorism add-on 

   Condo CP: unconditional assistance key to military, military says no, links to politics, conditions backfire 

   Asia: SQ solves, NU: focusing on Iran, heg solves Asia war, budget fights thumper, structure uniqueness outweighs 

   Ptx: no budget shutdown, Obama doesn’t push the plan, DoD does the plan, plan is a win, plan not controversial, pc not key 

   

   

  1ar Strategy 

  
  

   NL to oil backstopping 

   CP: links to ptx, kills relation, say no 

   Ptx: no shutdown, plan = internal appropriations 

   

   

  2ar Strategy 

  
  

   Military advantage outweighs warming 

   NL to oil backstopping turn 

   Heg outweighs warming 

    

  
  
• 
  
  

Shirley rd 7 vs Kansas CG

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• OFFCASE

   

  2AC Condition Existing Aid on Reform CP 

  1) Permute – do both 

  2) Egyptian military rejects the counterplan – assistance not threats key to solve 

  
  

  Cook, Senior Fellow at CFR, 09 (Political Instability in Egypt) 

  The United States will have few options should 

  AND 

  will seek to pass legislation cutting aid to Egypt 

  3) The military says no to avoid perceptions that the US dictates policy – only training can solve 

  
  

  CSM 11  (2/3, US-Egyptian military ties: How much leverage does the Pentagon have?, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2011/0203/US-Egyptian-military-ties-How-much-leverage-does-the-Pentagon-have) 

  At the Pentagon, the Egyptian military’s … that would be counterproductive,” Cordesman says. 

  4) Only a strategy that recognizes the military’s concern with their image will be successful 

  
  

  Martini and Taylor, Middle East Associate and Political Scientist at RAND, 11 

  (Sept/Oct, Commanding Democracy in Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, Issue 5) 

  That said, the United States can still 

  AND 

  from the international community if they truly liberalize. 

  5) Links to politics –powerful lobby’s oppose the counterplan 

   Boston Globe 11  (2/3, Critics question billions in aid routed back to US contractors, http://articles.boston.com/2011-02-03/news/29340241_1_military-aid-foreign-aid-civilian-aid/2)  Shifting away from the massive … they are the same people,’’ Allison said. 

  7) US military aid is already understood to be a QPQ – making new explicit threats backfires – causes war with Israel and removal of military access 

  
  

  Bryen, Senior Director for Security Policy at JINSA, 11 

  (2/12, Egypt Needs More U.S. Aid, Not Less, http://jinsa.wordpress.com/2011/02/12/egypt-needs-more-u-s-aid-not-less/) 

  With the power in Cairo now … — would be counterproductive. 

  2AC Asia Summit 

  Obama statements on Syria now 

  
  

  AFP, 11/12 (11/12/2011, “Obama praises Arab League for suspending Syria,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jFf9HCyjSc272pjH7CNeoq6Yebbg?docId=CNG.cbc3ed79698bb9cab8ad6a92169ceb0c.41) 

  HONOLULU, Hawaii — US President Barack Obama 

  AND 

  he is hosting an Asia-Pacific summit. 

  Focus on Iran now 

  
  

  Calmes, 11/11 (Jackie, 

  AND 

  ) 

   *Benjamin Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications 

  But illustrating that the Middle East continues to 

  AND 

  years and 3 wars in the Middle East. 

  No trade-off – Obama can do both 

  
  

  MacInnis, 11/7 (Laura, “Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour,” 11/7/2011, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story) 

  'VERY LONG TRIP' Since he is hosting the 

  AND 

  administration, with members of Congress from abroad." 

  Budget fights kill commitment to Asia 

  
  

  MacInnis, 11/7 (Laura, “Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour,” 11/7/2011, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story) 

  WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's 

  AND 

  to Australia will be his first as president. 

  The end of their article takesout the disad – either bogged down now or will ignore it anyway 

  
  

  Bower, 10/26 - Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program (10/26/2011, Ernest Z., “A Defining November: Litmus Test for President Obama,” http://csis.org/publication/defining-november-litmus-test-president-obama-0) 

   President Obama and his national security and 

  AND 

  , “the price of greatness is responsibility.” 

  And, structural uniqueness outweighs the link - administration’s newly declared long term strategy is to focus on Asia 

  
  

  CBS News, 10/24 (“Panetta: US at 'turning point,' to refocus on Asia,” 10/24/2011, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501712_162-20124570/panetta-us-at-turning-point-to-refocus-on-asia/) 

   (AP) TOKYO — The winding down of wars … South Korea for annual security consultations. 

  2AC OBAMA GOOD – SHUTDOWN 

   

  No threat of a shutdown 

   Management Watch 11/7 (“Government shutdown threat looms: does it matter”, 7 November 2011, http://fcw.com/blogs/management-matters/2011/11/another-government-shutdown-threat.aspx) 

  This time around, however, some consider 

  AND 

  Jay Newton-Small wrote for Time Swampland. 

  Obama won’t push the plan – 

  First – Obama will circumvent congress with unilateral executive action to get his agenda 

  
  

  Williams, 10/30 - weekly columnist for The Washington Post's "PostPartisan," blog (Conor, 10/30/2011, “President Obama's decision to work around Congress is another sign of legislative paralysis,” http://www.mlive.com/opinion/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2011/10/president_obamas_decision_to_w.html) 

  During the battle over ratification of the Constitution 

  AND 

  Tigers. It shouldn’t ever happen. Ever. 

  Second, plan implemented by the DOD and funded by the DOS 

  
  

  Moskowitz, Policy Planning Office at Office of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, ‘8 (Elisa, December, “The creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal) 

  Funding for IMET (and other Security Assistance 

  AND 

  .S.-origin equipment. (3) 

  Plan is not new funding – IMET internal reprogramming 

  
  

   K. AISTON – State Department – Aug 2000, C ONFIDENTIAL STATE 017117 (Memo), http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/165657.pdf 

  WHEN AF AND DRL MET IN 1994 TO 

  AND 

  ALL OTHER (NON-PARIAH) STATES. 

  Democratic engagement with Egyptian military is a major foreign policy win 

  
  

  Lane, The News Tribune, 2-15-’11 (Charles, “Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt” http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/02/15/1545321/obama-can-reap-political-capital.html) 

  Still, even after the resignation of Hosni 

  AND 

  in Egypt over the rest of his term. 

  Push for veterans’ jobs makes the link inevitable 

  
  

  Needham, 11/7 (Vicki Needham and Sam Youngman, “Obama pressures Congress to help veterans find jobs,” 11/7/2011, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/192109-white-house-rolling-out-programs-to-help-veterans-find-jobs) 

  President Obama on Monday announced new initiatives to 

  AND 

  overall 9 percent national jobless rate for October. 

  E-IMET not controversial 

  
  

  Moskowitz, Policy Planning Office at Office of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, ‘8 (Elisa, December, “The creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal) 

  The catalyst for the initiative was the Foreign 

  AND 

  met the intent of Congress. (12) 

  Push for Jackson-Vanik repeal makes the link inevitable 

  
  

  Sayenko, 11/11 (Sergei, 

  AND 

  /11/11/60236896.html) 

  The U.S. President Barack Obama 

  AND 

  aid package to Egypt from the US Congress. 

  New aid to Libya 

  
  

  Daily Mail, 10/27 (“The moderate fanatics of the Islamist Winter,” 10/27/2011, http://phillipsblog.dailymail.co.uk/2011/10/the-moderate-fanatics-of-the-islamist-winter.html) 

  The ‘Arab Spring’ is turning just about 

  AND 

  are stored - and destroy them.’ ( 

  Political capital not key – empirically proven 

  
  

  Edwards 3 (George C. Edwards, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M, former Director of the Center for Presidential Studies, Riding High in the Polls: George W. Bush and Public Opinion, http://www-polisci.tamu.edu/MyDocuments/web/Edwards/Papers%20PDF/work_papers/SP01LegislativeImpact.pdf) 

  One of the perennial questions about presidential- 

  AND 

  deference to a widely supported chief executive.44 

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Condition on Reform CP

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Egyptian military rejects the counterplan – assistance not threats key to solve 

  
  

  Cook, Senior Fellow at CFR, 09 (Political Instability in Egypt) 

  The United States will have few options should 

  AND 

  will seek to pass legislation cutting aid to Egypt 

  The military says no to avoid perceptions that the US dictates policy – only training can solve 

  
  

  CSM 11  (2/3, US-Egyptian military ties: How much leverage does the Pentagon have?, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2011/0203/US-Egyptian-military-ties-How-much-leverage-does-the-Pentagon-have) 

  At the Pentagon, the … be counterproductive,” Cordesman says. 

  Only a strategy that recognizes the military’s concern with their image will be successful 

  
  

  Martini and Taylor, Middle East Associate and Political Scientist at RAND, 11 

  (Sept/Oct, Commanding Democracy in Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, Issue 5) 

  That said, the United States can still 

  AND 

  from the international community if they truly liberalize. 

  Links to politics –powerful lobby’s oppose the counterplan 

   Boston Globe 11  (2/3, Critics question billions in aid routed back to US contractors, http://articles.boston.com/2011-02-03/news/29340241_1_military-aid-foreign-aid-civilian-aid/2) 

  Shifting away from the … the same people,’’ Allison said. 

  US military aid is already understood to be a QPQ – making new explicit threats backfires – causes war with Israel and removal of military access 

  
  

  Bryen, Senior Director for Security Policy at JINSA, 11 

  (2/12, Egypt Needs More U.S. Aid, Not Less, http://jinsa.wordpress.com/2011/02/12/egypt-needs-more-u-s-aid-not-less/) 

  With the power in Cairo now … now have — would be counterproductive. 

  The counterplan undermines military cooperation – causes our power projection impact 

  
  

  Washington Post 11 (9/30, Egypt cautions U.S. on attaching conditions to military assistance, Lexis) 

  A new source of friction has emerged between 

  AND 

  as we think," the Egyptian official said. 

  Backchannel pressure to the Egyptian military fails – wikileaks proves 

  
  

  Reuters 10 (12/21, Egypt's army resists US pressure to change tack: cablesaf.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE6BU08620101231) 

  Egypt's military has resisted U.S. 

  AND 

  threats," said a February 28 2010 cable. 

  Leaked documents show private diplomacy fails with the Egyptian military 

  
  

  CBS News 10 (12/31, U.S. Said Frustrated With Egypt Military, www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/31/world/main7199741.shtml) 

  U.S. diplomatic memos leaked this 

  AND 

  with a premium on grounds forces and armor."

  
  
• 
  
  

2AC Politics - Asia Summit

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Obama statements on Syria now 

  
  

  AFP, 11/12 (11/12/2011, “Obama praises Arab League for suspending Syria,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jFf9HCyjSc272pjH7CNeoq6Yebbg?docId=CNG.cbc3ed79698bb9cab8ad6a92169ceb0c.41) 

  HONOLULU, Hawaii — US President Barack Obama 

  AND 

  he is hosting an Asia-Pacific summit. 

  Focus on Iran now 

  
  

  Calmes, 11/11 (Jackie, 

  AND 

  ) 

   *Benjamin Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications 

  But illustrating that the Middle East continues to 

  AND 

  years and 3 wars in the Middle East. 

  E-IMET not controversial 

  
  

  Moskowitz, Policy Planning Office at Office of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, ‘8 (Elisa, December, “The creation of Expanded International Military Education and Training (E-IMET)” DISAM Journal) 

  The catalyst for the initiative was the Foreign 

  AND 

  met the intent of Congress. (12) 

   

  No trade-off – Obama can do both 

  
  

  MacInnis, 11/7 (Laura, “Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour,” 11/7/2011, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story) 

  'VERY LONG TRIP' Since he is hosting the 

  AND 

  administration, with members of Congress from abroad." 

  Budget fights kill commitment to Asia 

  
  

  MacInnis, 11/7 (Laura, “Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour,” 11/7/2011, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story) 

  WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's 

  AND 

  to Australia will be his first as president. 

  The end of their article takesout the disad – either bogged down now or will ignore it anyway 

  
  

  Bower, 10/26 - Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program (10/26/2011, Ernest Z., “A Defining November: Litmus Test for President Obama,” http://csis.org/publication/defining-november-litmus-test-president-obama-0) 

   President Obama and his national security and 

  AND 

  , “the price of greatness is responsibility.” 

  And, structural uniqueness outweighs the link - administration’s newly declared long term strategy is to focus on Asia 

  
  

  CBS News, 10/24 (“Panetta: US at 'turning point,' to refocus on Asia,” 10/24/2011, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501712_162-20124570/panetta-us-at-turning-point-to-refocus-on-asia/) 

   (AP) TOKYO — The winding down … Korea for annual security consultations. 

  Asian wars not likely 

  
  

  Bitzinger and Desker, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 8 (Richard A., sr. fellow @ the school of international studies @ Nanyang Technological University, and Barry, Dean of the (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none; text-underline:none" %)S Rajaratnam School of International Studies>&, Survival, Volume 50, Issue 6, December, Informaworld) 

  Yet despite all these potential crucibles of conflict 

  AND 

  Asia - while not inconceivable - is unlikely.

  
  
• 
  
  

1AC Pitt RR

• Tournament: | Round: 2 | Opponent: Wake | Judge:
  
  

• Plan: The United States federal government should offer military education democracy programming in Egypt to substantially increase Egyptian participation in military education democracy programming.

  Adv 1 - Transition

  Advantage One is Transition Failure

  The military and the Muslim Brotherhood are on a collision course – even though there is accommodation now there will be conflict in the future

  Washington Post 1/5 (Muslim Brotherhood Advances Democracy, amiddleeastblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/muslim-brotherhood-advances-democracy.html)

  The dominant showing by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom

  AND

  institution, a strong parliament with electoral legitimacy.”

   

  Causes transition failure and Egyptian collapse

  Springborg, Professor - National Security Affairs - Naval Postgraduate School, 12 (Egypt’s Elections: Ballots vs. Bullets, www.iemed.org/observatori-en/actualitat/opinions/egypt2019s-elections-ballots-vs.-bullets)

  So while the election outcome to the lower

  AND

  dictatorship, Islamist authoritarianism, or political chaos.

   

  Egyptian instability causes Iran to incite proxies to isolate Israel – destabilizing the Middle East

  Segal, Middle East Political Analyst, ’11 (Arik- Former Assistant at the Korean Embassy in Egypt, February/March, “The Egyptian Uprising – Implications for Regional Stability: the US, Iran and Israel” http://www.visit.fnst.org/Startpage-News/870c18421i1p/index.html)

  Egypt and Iran are both regional powers that

  AND

   

  The only other option is isolation and conflict.

  Egypt instability empowers radicals that act aggressively towards Israel – makes war inevitable

  Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11 (Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

  Gaza offers the risk of a high-

  AND

  a dangerous escalation that could spiral into disaster.

   

  Israel war poses the most likely risk of conflict – Israel thinks Iran is irrational so deterrence logic fails

  Nili, PhD Candidate PolSci Notre Dame, ’11 (Shmuel- IDF Captain Media and Communications Division, Spring, “The Nuclear (and the) Holocaust: Israel, Iran, and the Shadows of Auschwitz” Journal of Strategic Security, Vol 4 Issue 1, p 37-56, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1073&context=jss)

  It is a gross mistake to think that

  AND

  pay any price to achieve its messianic goal.

   

  Middle East is the most likely scenario for global escalation – war draws in major powers

  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, 09 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

  AND

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

   

  Expanding IMET democracy training creates stability in the short term and sustainable civil-military relations in the long term

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires

  AND

  where the military respects the society it serves.

   

  Mobile Education Teams ensure that the plan is able to solve quickly by creating dialogue between civilian and military officials

  Cope, Senior Fellow - Institute for National Strategic Studies, 95 (International Military Education and Training: an assessment, McNair Papers, Lexis)

  DSAA has launched an intensive effort to reinforce

  AND

  of countries desiring to participate in these programs.

   

  E-IMET includes the highest level of military and civilian officials

  Admiral Larson, Commander in Chief – US Pacific Command, 93 (IMET: A Cornerstone of Cooperative Engagement, Available Online)

  A new and increasingly important component of IMET

  AND

  at all levels of the Sri Lankan military.

   

  We don’t need to win a full relinquishment of power to solve – the US can reduce SCAF control enough to restore stability

  Hilal, Director - Middle East Task Force - New America Foundation, 11 (11/25, Egypt needs a new road map, not just elections, mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/25/egypt_needs_a_new_road_map_not_just_elections)

  Most crucial of all, the poorly planned

  AND

  end up on the wrong side of history.

   

  Egypt will say yes – the US has an established previous relationship

  Mitchell, Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)

  Close partnership with Egypt should be a cornerstone

  AND

  Israel‘s suspicions of a Southern threat.

   

  Status quo aid conditionality tries to use “leverage” and it fails – the aff uses linkage by expanding connections which solves best.

  Ulfelder, Political Scientist and Former Research Director for the Political Instability Task Force, 12/31 (How Strong Is the U.S. Lever in Egypt?, dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2011/12/31/how-strong-is-the-u-s-lever-in-egypt/)

  To help understand the impact of international forces

  AND

  this particular lever is going to get pushed.

   

  Adv 2 – New

  Advantage 2 is aid cutoff

  Congress will cutoff military aid now – that causes Egypt to move away from the US and towards China

  LeVine, Professor - History - UC Irvine, 1/3 (SCAF's Chinese surprise in 2012 , www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/01/20121283259906802.html)

  Such a calculation could well be wrong,

  AND

  US empire's most strategically central and prized possessions.

   

  US fighter technology will be compromised

  Copley, Editor of Global Information System, 11 Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)

  Issues of military technology and equipment relations:

  AND

  -U.S. Islamists or populists.

   

  \Gaining access to US military technology allows China to reverse engineer it and modernize their air force – other means fail

  Saunders, Director of Studies in the Center for Strategic Research/Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, 11 (December, Buy, Build, or Steal: China’s Quest for Advanced Military Aviation Technologies, Available online)

  China’s potential to continue to “build”

  AND

  use” military specific technologies will remain problematic.

   

  The impact is Asian war

  Air and Space Power Journal 07 (Fall, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj07/fal07/greenberg.html)

  Even though the likelihood of China’s initiating a

  AND

  limit the development of China’s offensive air capabilities. 

   

  Asian war escalates to full nuclear use – nuclear asymmetry and complex security dynamics make de-escalation impossible

  Twomey, Professor National Security at Naval Postgraduate, ’11 (Christopher, January, “Asia's Complex Strategic Environment: Nuclear Multipolarity and Other Dangers” Asia Policy, No 11, ProjectMuse)

  Implications Each element of complexity raises its own

  AND

  States and North Korea or China and India.

   

  Reducing military aid eliminates US military privileges in Egypt

  AFP 11 (2/13, US ponders future of military ties with Egypt, www.canada.com/news/ponders+future+military+ties+with+Egypt/4275713/story.html)

  Egypt watchers said the massive USD1.3

  AND

  Canal and Egyptian airspace," the cable added.

   

  Loss of Egyptian military cooperation would be a devastating blow to US global military operations – we would not be able to adapt to loss of Egyptian facilities and air space

  Wood, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, 11 (2/5, At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

  Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright

  AND

  That should serve as a cautionary tale.''

   

  The perception of declining military cooperation with Egypt undermines deterrence globally – reinvigorating the relationship is key to freeing fleets for other theaters of war

  Said, Military and Tech Advisor - Al Ahram Center, 04 (Assessing the United States-EgyptianMilitary and Security Relations, acpss.ahram.org.eg/eng/ahram/2004/7/5/STUD8.HTM)

  As a result of the Camp David peace

  AND

  it routinely waives this regulation for American warships.

   

  Primacy dramatically reduces the risk of great power conflict – power projection stabilizes regional conflict and dampens miscalculation

  Walt, Professor of International Relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, ‘2 (Stephen, Spring, “American Primacy: Its Prospects and Pitfalls” Naval War College Review, Vol 55 Issue 2, p 9, Proquest)

  A second consequence of U.S.

  AND

  interesting” decades like the 1930s or 1940s.

   

  US decline is not inevitable – it is built on a strong foundation of military power projection

  Beitelman, PhD Candidate at Dalhousie U, ’11 (David, September, “U.S. Remains the Only Superpower” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1739)

  Superpower. We’ve all heard the term yet

  AND

  it’s important that we remember what they mean.

   

  The plan shifts our military’s assistance from kinetic war-fighting to non-kinetic CMR training – this is key to signal US support for democracy and increasing our credibility

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires

  AND

  therefore increase the visibility of its IMET programs.

   

  The aff stops congressional aid rollback by  using aid to emphasize civil-military relations and democratic governance

  Toronto, Professor Middle East Security at Army School of Advanced Military Studies, ’11 (Nathan, November, “Active Inaction: Interagency Security Assistance to Egypt” Interagency Paper, http://thesimonscenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/IAP-No06-November2011.pdf)

  A third option, “active inaction,”

  AND

  in the Office of Military Cooperation (OMC).

   

   

  IMET can bolster a transfer to civilian rule – solves instability

  Alterman, Director Middle East CSIS, ’12 (Jon, January, “Egypt in Transition: Insights and Options for US Policy” http://csis.org/files/publication/120117_Egypt_Transition.pdf)

  Recommendations

  1) Focus on long-term goals

  AND

  leadership that different strategies would yield better results.

   

  
  
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• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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• 
  
  

1ac v wake Pitt RR

• Tournament: | Round: 2 | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

•  

   

  Plan

  The United States federal government should offer military education democracy programming in Egypt to substantially increase Egyptian participation in military education democracy programming.

  Adv 1 - Transition

  Advantage One is Transition Failure

  The military and the Muslim Brotherhood are on a collision course – even though there is accommodation now there will be conflict in the future

  Washington Post 1/5 (Muslim Brotherhood Advances Democracy, amiddleeastblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/muslim-brotherhood-advances-democracy.html)

  The dominant showing by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom

  AND

  institution, a strong parliament with electoral legitimacy.”

  Causes transition failure and Egyptian collapse

  Springborg, Professor - National Security Affairs - Naval Postgraduate School, 12 (Egypt’s Elections: Ballots vs. Bullets, www.iemed.org/observatori-en/actualitat/opinions/egypt2019s-elections-ballots-vs.-bullets)

  So while the election outcome to the lower

  AND

  dictatorship, Islamist authoritarianism, or political chaos.

  Egyptian instability causes Iran to incite proxies to isolate Israel – destabilizing the Middle East

  Segal, Middle East Political Analyst, ’11 (Arik- Former Assistant at the Korean Embassy in Egypt, February/March, “The Egyptian Uprising – Implications for Regional Stability: the US, Iran and Israel” http://www.visit.fnst.org/Startpage-News/870c18421i1p/index.html)

  Egypt and Iran are both regional powers that have competed for regional supremacy and influence in the Middle East since they took opposite directions in 1979. It is highly like that Iran is looking to take advantage of a weakened Egypt to promote its interests in the region. Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert says: "If there is a vacuum of power and leadership in Egypt, Iran is not going to stay on the sidelines and watch, it will try to exploit the situation by funding its like-minded cohorts. Iran has used this playbook in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon". Despite Shia-Sunni differences and rivalry, Iranian leaders share theological background and regional interest with the Muslim Brotherhood – the largest and most organized political party in Egypt. Before the 1979 revolution Ayatollah Khomeini used the writings and ideas of Sayyid Qutb, one of the founders of the Muslim Brotherhood and the master mind behind Al Qaeda ideology, as the basis for his notion of an Islamic State ruled by clerics.  Moreover, the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran share a common enemy (Israel), a motivation that has been historically used to bridge cross-sectarian and other deep rooted differences. In order to expand its influence in Egypt, Iran can use its ties with Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The congenial relationship between Hamas and Iran was further enhanced during the Gaza campaign in 2009. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal praised Iran by saying "Iran has definitely played a big role in the victory of the people of Gaza and is a partner in that victory." From the Iranian perspective, the turmoil in Egypt could not have come at a better time. President Ahmadinejad has successfully entrenched his rule after crushing political and public opposition in the aftermath of the 2009 disputed elections and Hezbollah is close to gaining political control over Lebanon. The passage of Iranian warships in the Suez Canal could symbolize the first sign of Iranian intentions. Israel: Since the signing of the peace agreement in 1979, Egypt and Israel became strategic partners and along with American support effectively maintained a moderate pro-western alignment in the Middle East. Egypt supplies Israel with nearly half of its natural gas supply, allows Israeli war ships to sail through the Suez Canal, tacitly supported Israeli war against Hamas and acted as a mediator with the Palestinians. In a further show of support, Egypt did not intervene during Israel’s war with Lebanon and operation in Gaza and only demonstrated symbolic diplomatic protest during the two Intifadas. A possible regime change in Egypt will alter this close relationship for two reasons. First, the main viable political alternatives to the current regime seem to be the Muslim Brotherhood or Muhammad El Baradei, both known as being hostile towards Israel. Second, the demonstrators who demand an end to Mubarak’s rule see him as an "Israeli-American agent" and will pressure any new regime to revise this approach and support the Palestinian cause. The remark of former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt, Eli Shaked, further highlights this point:"The only people in Egypt who are committed to peace are the people in Mubarak’s inner circle, and if the next president is not one of them, we are going to be in trouble.” In the near future, Israel might be forced to defend its southern border and reallocate its military and economic resources. Nevertheless, any new Egyptian government will have to consider the significant American annual aid it receives when planning its approach towards Israel.  Taken together with the breakdown of relations with Turkey, Israel may very soon remain without any ally in its neighborhood. Looking at the big picture it is clear that the balance of power in the Middle East has dramatically changed. Egypt is about to join Iraq and Lebanon in experiencing a protracted period of domestic political turmoil. With less American influence, Iran will likely use this situation to promote it interests in the region, destabilizing the existing status quo, leaving Israel more isolated than ever and the Middle East more prone to violence. Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman was right when he said "the recent events in the Arab world prove that the Israeli Palestinian conflict is not the main issue in the area". However he is wrong for not realizing that once the Arab world gains its freedom, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict will definitely be the main issue in the area and there will be no pro-Israeli regime to counter popular sentiments. Therefore, a sensible Israeli government should re- focus its foreign policy agenda and push forward with the Peace Process. The only other option is isolation and conflict.

  Egypt instability empowers radicals that act aggressively towards Israel – makes war inevitable

  Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11 (Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

  Gaza offers the risk of a high-

  AND

  a dangerous escalation that could spiral into disaster.

  Israel war poses the most likely risk of conflict – Israel thinks Iran is irrational so deterrence logic fails

  Nili, PhD Candidate PolSci Notre Dame, ’11 (Shmuel- IDF Captain Media and Communications Division, Spring, “The Nuclear (and the) Holocaust: Israel, Iran, and the Shadows of Auschwitz” Journal of Strategic Security, Vol 4 Issue 1, p 37-56, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1073&context=jss)

  It is a gross mistake to think that

  AND

  pay any price to achieve its messianic goal.

  Middle East is the most likely scenario for global escalation – war draws in major powers

  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, 09 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

  AND

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Expanding IMET democracy training creates stability in the short term and sustainable civil-military relations in the long term

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires

  AND

  where the military respects the society it serves.

  Mobile Education Teams ensure that the plan is able to solve quickly by creating dialogue between civilian and military officials

  Cope, Senior Fellow - Institute for National Strategic Studies, 95 (International Military Education and Training: an assessment, McNair Papers, Lexis)

  DSAA has launched an intensive effort to reinforce

  AND

  of countries desiring to participate in these programs.

  E-IMET includes the highest level of military and civilian officials

  Admiral Larson, Commander in Chief – US Pacific Command, 93 (IMET: A Cornerstone of Cooperative Engagement, Available Online)

  A new and increasingly important component of IMET

  AND

  at all levels of the Sri Lankan military.

  We don’t need to win a full relinquishment of power to solve – the US can reduce SCAF control enough to restore stability

  Hilal, Director - Middle East Task Force - New America Foundation, 11 (11/25, Egypt needs a new road map, not just elections, mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/25/egypt_needs_a_new_road_map_not_just_elections)

  Most crucial of all, the poorly planned

  AND

  end up on the wrong side of history.

  Egypt will say yes – the US has an established previous relationship

  Mitchell, Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)

  Close partnership with Egypt should be a cornerstone

  AND

  Israel‘s suspicions of a Southern threat.

  Status quo aid conditionality tries to use “leverage” and it fails – the aff uses linkage by expanding connections which solves best.

  Ulfelder, Political Scientist and Former Research Director for the Political Instability Task Force, 12/31 (How Strong Is the U.S. Lever in Egypt?, dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2011/12/31/how-strong-is-the-u-s-lever-in-egypt/)

  To help understand the impact of international forces

  AND

  this particular lever is going to get pushed.

   

  Adv 2 – New

  Advantage 2 is aid cutoff

  Congress will cutoff military aid now – that causes Egypt to move away from the US and towards China

  LeVine, Professor - History - UC Irvine, 1/3 (SCAF's Chinese surprise in 2012 , www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/01/20121283259906802.html)

  Such a calculation could well be wrong,

  AND

  US empire's most strategically central and prized possessions.

  US fighter technology will be compromised

  Copley, Editor of Global Information System, 11 Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)

  Issues of military technology and equipment relations:

  AND

  -U.S. Islamists or populists.

  Gaining access to US military technology allows China to reverse engineer it and modernize their air force – other means fail

  Saunders, Director of Studies in the Center for Strategic Research/Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, 11 (December, Buy, Build, or Steal: China’s Quest for Advanced Military Aviation Technologies, Available online)

  China’s potential to continue to “build”

  AND

  use” military specific technologies will remain problematic.

  The impact is Asian war

  Air and Space Power Journal 07 (Fall, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj07/fal07/greenberg.html)

  Even though the likelihood of China’s initiating a

  AND

  limit the development of China’s offensive air capabilities. 

  Asian war escalates to full nuclear use – nuclear asymmetry and complex security dynamics make de-escalation impossible

  Twomey, Professor National Security at Naval Postgraduate, ’11 (Christopher, January, “Asia's Complex Strategic Environment: Nuclear Multipolarity and Other Dangers” Asia Policy, No 11, ProjectMuse)

  Implications Each element of complexity raises its own

  AND

  States and North Korea or China and India.

  Reducing military aid eliminates US military privileges in Egypt

  AFP 11 (2/13, US ponders future of military ties with Egypt, www.canada.com/news/ponders+future+military+ties+with+Egypt/4275713/story.html)

  Egypt watchers said the massive USD1.3

  AND

  Canal and Egyptian airspace," the cable added.

  Loss of Egyptian military cooperation would be a devastating blow to US global military operations – we would not be able to adapt to loss of Egyptian facilities and air space

  Wood, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, 11 (2/5, At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

  Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright

  AND

  That should serve as a cautionary tale.''

  The perception of declining military cooperation with Egypt undermines deterrence globally – reinvigorating the relationship is key to freeing fleets for other theaters of war

  Said, Military and Tech Advisor - Al Ahram Center, 04 (Assessing the United States-EgyptianMilitary and Security Relations, acpss.ahram.org.eg/eng/ahram/2004/7/5/STUD8.HTM)

  As a result of the Camp David peace

  AND

  it routinely waives this regulation for American warships.

  Primacy dramatically reduces the risk of great power conflict – power projection stabilizes regional conflict and dampens miscalculation

  Walt, Professor of International Relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, ‘2 (Stephen, Spring, “American Primacy: Its Prospects and Pitfalls” Naval War College Review, Vol 55 Issue 2, p 9, Proquest)

  A second consequence of U.S.

  AND

  interesting” decades like the 1930s or 1940s.

  US decline is not inevitable – it is built on a strong foundation of military power projection

  Beitelman, PhD Candidate at Dalhousie U, ’11 (David, September, “U.S. Remains the Only Superpower” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1739)

  Superpower. We’ve all heard the term yet

  AND

  it’s important that we remember what they mean.

  The plan shifts our military’s assistance from kinetic war-fighting to non-kinetic CMR training – this is key to signal US support for democracy and increasing our credibility

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires

  AND

  therefore increase the visibility of its IMET programs.

  The aff stops congressional aid rollback by  using aid to emphasize civil-military relations and democratic governance

  Toronto, Professor Middle East Security at Army School of Advanced Military Studies, ’11 (Nathan, November, “Active Inaction: Interagency Security Assistance to Egypt” Interagency Paper, http://thesimonscenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/IAP-No06-November2011.pdf)

  A third option, “active inaction,”

  AND

  in the Office of Military Cooperation (OMC).

   

   

  IMET can bolster a transfer to civilian rule – solves instability

  Alterman, Director Middle East CSIS, ’12 (Jon, January, “Egypt in Transition: Insights and Options for US Policy” http://csis.org/files/publication/120117_Egypt_Transition.pdf)

  Recommendations

  1) Focus on long-term goals

  AND

  all levels and all quarters of Egyptian politics.

  2) Continue to support the consolidation of

  AND

  and tolerant political sphere that preserves genuine competition.

  3) Work diplomatically to ease tensions between

  AND

  additional emphasis on ameliorating tensions in this sphere.

  4) Help nurture a national security strategy

  AND

  intelligence and military forces to preserve their power.

  5) Make investments in the kind of

  AND

  leadership that different strategies would yield better results.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

2ac v. Emporia WW-PItt RR

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• our discussion of public policymaking is the best way to create decision-making skills and knowledge about government policy that is essential to effective local resistance to violence and inequality

  Themba-Nixon, 2K (Makani, July 31, “Changing the Rules: What Public Policy Means for Organizing” Colorlines, Vol 3 Issue 2, p 12)

  "This is all about policy," - to making it so.

  Kansas City is still in a first world country and to ignore the difference that exists between that and 3^rd world countries overseas makes it impossible to fight global oppression – we cannot decentralize the struggle

  Bartolovich and Smith, 2011 (Crystal, Associate Professor of English at Syracuse University, interviewed by Paul, Professor of Cultural Studies at George Mason University, “Commons, Utopia, Postcolonialism,” http://pkjournal.org/?page_id=1710, basis for date: references OWS)

  The other - and, ultimately, globally.

  Third, problems with US democracy does not mean that we should turn inward – a focus on changes in US foreign policy towards Arab Spring countries benefits the struggle back home and is necessary for a larger global struggle against oppression

  Naiman, Policy Director at Just Foreign Policy, 11

  (10/17, Palestine, Farming, U.S. Aid, and the Arab Spring: A Conversation with Rami Zurayk, www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/17/1027238/-Palestine,-Farming,-US-Aid,-and-the-Arab-Spring:-A-Conversation-with-Rami-Zurayk)

  No doubt at - deserves serious attention.

  Some degree of exclusion is inevitable, but it has to be – if the debate topic included every voice, perspective, identity, and opinion without any structured forum for discussing those issues it would be unlimited as to be unproductive – setting limits on our discussion through a commonly agreed upon topic doesn’t cause systematic violence, but it does allow for productive democratic politics that enable us to recognize and embrace that difference in a way that focusing on identity cannot

  JAC 7 http://lilt.ilstu.edu/theory/authors/mouffe.htm citing MOUFFE -  Chantal Mouffe (born 1943 in Charleroi, Belgium) is a Belgian political theorist. She holds a professorship at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Westminster in the United Kingdom. She is best known as co-author of Hegemony and Socialist Strategy with Ernesto Laclau. Their thoughts are usually described as post-Marxism as they were both politically active in the social and student movements of the 1960s including working class and new social movements (notably second-wave feminism in Mouffe's case). They rejected Marxist economic determinism and the notion of class struggle being the single crucial antagonism in society. Instead they urged for radical democracy of agonistic pluralism where all antagonisms could be expressed. In their opinion, ‘...there is no possibility of society without antagonism’; indeed, without the forces that articulate a vision of society, it could not exist.

  Given this sense - continually put in question.

  A2: Struggle For Demo in Egypt Now

  Anti-intervention causes dictatorship – they take control

  Sadiki, 2011 (Larbi, Jun 6, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The mathematics of the Arab Spring,”

  http://aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html)

  On the Arab - to speak back.

  
  
• 
  
  

1AC v. MoState Rd 7 Pitt RR

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Plan

  The United States federal government should offer military education democracy programming in Egypt to substantially increase Egyptian participation in military education democracy programming.

  Adv 1 - Transition

  Advantage One is Transition Failure

  The military and the Muslim Brotherhood are on a collision course – even though there is accommodation now there will be conflict in the future

  Washington Post 1/5 (Muslim Brotherhood Advances Democracy, amiddleeastblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/muslim-brotherhood-advances-democracy.html)

  The dominant showing by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom 

  AND 

  institution, a strong parliament with electoral legitimacy.” 

  Causes transition failure and Egyptian collapse

  Springborg, Professor - National Security Affairs - Naval Postgraduate School, 12 (Egypt’s Elections: Ballots vs. Bullets, www.iemed.org/observatori-en/actualitat/opinions/egypt2019s-elections-ballots-vs.-bullets)

  So while the election outcome to the lower 

  AND 

  dictatorship, Islamist authoritarianism, or political chaos.

  Egyptian instability causes Iran to incite proxies to isolate Israel – destabilizing the Middle East

  Segal, Middle East Political Analyst, ’11 (Arik- Former Assistant at the Korean Embassy in Egypt, February/March, “The Egyptian Uprising – Implications for Regional Stability: the US, Iran and Israel” http://www.visit.fnst.org/Startpage-News/870c18421i1p/index.html)

  Egypt and Iran are both regional powers that have competed for regional supremacy and influence in the Middle East since they took opposite directions in 1979. It is highly like that Iran is counter popular sentiments. Therefore, a sensible Israeli government should re- focus its foreign policy agenda and push forward with the Peace Process. The only other option is isolation and conflict. 

  Egypt instability empowers radicals that act aggressively towards Israel – makes war inevitable

  Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11 (Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

  Gaza offers the risk of a high-

  AND 

  a dangerous escalation that could spiral into disaster.

  Israel war poses the most likely risk of conflict – Israel thinks Iran is irrational so deterrence logic fails

  Nili, PhD Candidate PolSci Notre Dame, ’11 (Shmuel- IDF Captain Media and Communications Division, Spring, “The Nuclear (and the) Holocaust: Israel, Iran, and the Shadows of Auschwitz” Journal of Strategic Security, Vol 4 Issue 1, p 37-56, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1073&context=jss)

  It is a gross mistake to think that 

  AND 

  pay any price to achieve its messianic goal.

  Middle East is the most likely scenario for global escalation – war draws in major powers

  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, 09 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf)

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined 

  AND 

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

  Expanding IMET democracy training creates stability in the short term and sustainable civil-military relations in the long term 

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires 

  AND 

  where the military respects the society it serves. 

  Mobile Education Teams ensure that the plan is able to solve quickly by creating dialogue between civilian and military officials

  Cope, Senior Fellow - Institute for National Strategic Studies, 95 (International Military Education and Training: an assessment, McNair Papers, Lexis)

  DSAA has launched an intensive effort to reinforce 

  AND 

  of countries desiring to participate in these programs.

  E-IMET includes the highest level of military and civilian officials

  Admiral Larson, Commander in Chief – US Pacific Command, 93 (IMET: A Cornerstone of Cooperative Engagement, Available Online)

  A new and increasingly important component of IMET 

  AND 

  at all levels of the Sri Lankan military.

  We don’t need to win a full relinquishment of power to solve – the US can reduce SCAF control enough to restore stability

  Hilal, Director - Middle East Task Force - New America Foundation, 11 (11/25, Egypt needs a new road map, not just elections, mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/25/egypt_needs_a_new_road_map_not_just_elections)

  Most crucial of all, the poorly planned 

  AND 

  end up on the wrong side of history.

  Egypt will say yes – the US has an established previous relationship

  Mitchell, Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)

  Close partnership with Egypt should be a cornerstone 

  AND 

  Israel‘s suspicions of a Southern threat.

  Adv 2 – Military Access

  Advantage 2 is Military Access

  Obama’s inaction on Egyptian military control will create a break in the alliance – only executive leadership to reformulate military assistance solves

  Diehl, Editor - Washington Post, 11 (12/11, Obama is lagging on Egypt, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-lagging-on-the-arab-spring/2011/12/08/gIQApQzCoO_story.html)

  The story of that statement is a good 

  AND 

  , it needs to come from the president.

  Military cooperation will be cutoff unless the United States reverses perceptions of our over commitment to military control

  Byman, Senior Fellow - Middle East - Brookings, 11 (2/9, Democracy in Egypt: What Are the Risks to the United States? www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0209_egypt_democracy_byman.aspx)

  Mubarak, after all, was a friend

  AND 

  realistic outcome for U.S. policy. 

  Public opinion shapes Egyptian policy – all political actors will want to be seen as responsive

  Hellyer, Senior Analyst at he Abu Dhabi Gallup Center, 11 

  (8/23, Public opinion, political strategies and the new Egypt, www.commongroundnews.org/article.php?id=30247&lan=en&sp=0)

  There’s a new Egypt now — an Egypt where public opinion actually matters. The country has gone through a tumultuous seven months and Ramadan provides something of a break from politics as Muslim with no party polling more than one-seventh of the population. Those who react strategically to public opinion stand to benefit greatly in this environment; equally, those who underestimate it stand to lose substantially. The time for planning will not come the day after Ramadan — it came the day Mubarak was forced from power. Those who have not realised this need to catch up, fast.

  SCAF will face an Iranian-style purge – reaching a solution now is key

  Mallat, 12-27 [Chibli Mallat, Visiting Professor of Islamic Legal Studies at Harvard Law School, “Saving the Egyptian Revolution from the Military,” December 27th 2011, http://jurist.org/forum/2011/12/chibli-mallat-egypt-military.php.]

  It is probably too late. Too many 

  AND 

  to continue leading the Middle East nonviolent revolution.

  Loss of Egyptian military cooperation would be a devastating blow to US global military operations – we would not be able to adapt to loss of Egyptian facilities and air space 

  Wood, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, 11 (2/5, At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

  Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright 

  AND 

  That should serve as a cautionary tale.''

  We don’t have to win a total break – making Egypt less reliable collapses power projection

  Schenker, Senior Fellow - Washington Institute, 11

  (6/18, Egypt after MubarakBackEgypt’s Enduring Challenges as it Faces the United States, www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52417&pageid=&pagename=)

  While a shift in Egyptian foreign policy might not imply a break with Washington, it shaky U.S. strategic architecture in the region. In fact, should Cairo leave the U.S. orbit altogether, then for the first time in modern history, all three civilizational powers of the Middle East—Iran, Turkey, and Egypt—would be at odds with the United States.

  The perception of declining military cooperation with Egypt undermines deterrence globally – reinvigorating the relationship is key to freeing fleets for other theaters of war

  Said, Military and Tech Advisor - Al Ahram Center, 04 (Assessing the United States-EgyptianMilitary and Security Relations, acpss.ahram.org.eg/eng/ahram/2004/7/5/STUD8.HTM)

  As a result of the Camp David peace 

  AND 

  it routinely waives this regulation for American warships. 

  Primacy dramatically reduces the risk of great power conflict – power projection stabilizes regional conflict and dampens miscalculation

  Walt, Professor of International Relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, ‘2 (Stephen, Spring, “American Primacy: Its Prospects and Pitfalls” Naval War College Review, Vol 55 Issue 2, p 9, Proquest)

  A second consequence of U.S. 

  AND 

  interesting” decades like the 1930s or 1940s.

  Specifically, naval power projection is key to preventing war with China

  Cropsey, Senior Fellow at Hudson, ’10 (Seth, September/October, “Ebb Tide” The American Interest, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=858)

  Only one statement can be made with certainty 

  AND 

  abject weakness would be an invitation to calamity.

  China will escalate the conflict – perception of rational escalation ensures US gets drawn into the nuclear arms race

  Glaser, PolSci Prof at Goerge Washington, ’11 (Charles, March/April, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs, Vol 90 Issue 2, EbscoHost)

  ACCOMMODATION ON TAIWAN? THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be good, but growth in China's power d nuclear arms race. Enhancements to U.S. offensive targeting capabilities and strategic ballistic missile defenses might be interpreted by China as a signal of malign U.S. motives, leading to further Chinese military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations. 

  US decline is not inevitable – it is built on a strong foundation of military power projection

  Beitelman, PhD Candidate at Dalhousie U, ’11 (David, September, “U.S. Remains the Only Superpower” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1739)

  Superpower. We’ve all heard the term yet 

  AND 

  it’s important that we remember what they mean.

  Making a visible shift in military to military relations from a kinetic to a non-kinetic emphasis by increasing CMR education is necessary to credibly signal US support for democratic aspirations and restore US credibility

  Lahoud et al, A team of 6 Social Science Professors from West Point, 11 (6/29, The ‘Arab Spring’: Investing in Durable Peace)

  In view of the pro-democratic desires 

  AND 

  therefore increase the visibility of its IMET programs.

  Egypt will say yes – the US has an established previous relationship

  Mitchell, Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)

  Close partnership with Egypt should be a cornerstone 

  AND 

  Israel‘s suspicions of a Southern threat.

  The plan is a necessary middle ground – conditioning aid doesn’t solve

  HRF 11 [Human Rights First] (11/22, a non-profit, nonpartisan international human rights organization based in NY and DC, Promoting Reform in Egypt, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/HumanRightsFirst_Egypt_Blueprint.pdf)

  As Egypt undergoes negative and messy incidents on 

  AND 

  move forward on the path of democratic development.

   Therefore, a situation where the U

  AND 

  has changed for the United States from 2010.

  Shifting military assistance towards CMR education avoids Egyptian backlash

  Toronto, Professor Middle East Security at Army School of Advanced Military Studies, ’11 (Nathan, November, “Active Inaction: Interagency Security Assistance to Egypt” Interagency Paper, http://thesimonscenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/IAP-No06-November2011.pdf)

  A third option, “active inaction,” 

  AND 

  . achieve its security assistance goal in Egypt.

  IMET can bolster a transfer to civilian rule – solves instability 

  Alterman, Director Middle East CSIS, ’12 (Jon, January, “Egypt in Transition: Insights and Options for US Policy” http://csis.org/files/publication/120117_Egypt_Transition.pdf)

  Recommendations

  1) Focus on long-term goals

  AND 

  all levels and all quarters of Egyptian politics.

  2) Continue to support the consolidation of 

  AND 

  and tolerant political sphere that preserves genuine competition.

  3) Work diplomatically to ease tensions between 

  AND 

  additional emphasis on ameliorating tensions in this sphere.

  4) Help nurture a national security strategy

  AND 

  intelligence and military forces to preserve their power.

  5) Make investments in the kind of 

  AND 

  leadership that different strategies would yield better results.

  
  
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