FEand/orax 1. Jackson-Vanik will be repealed now
Verona 3/29 (The True Cost of Jackson-Vanik, Ed Verona is president & CEO of the U.S.-Russia Business Council, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-true-cost-jackson-vanik-6702?page=1)
In January, the Obama administration publicly stated
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for lifting Jackson-Vanik and extending PNTR.
2. Political capital is key to repealing Jackson-Vanik
Allison and Blackwill 11 (“Russia and U.S. National Interests: Why Should Americans Care? A Report of the Task Force on Russia and U.S. National Interest” Graham Allison Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Assistant Secretary of Defense in the first Clinton Administration Robert D. Blackwill is the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Deputy national security adviser for strategic planning under President George W. Bush, presidential envoy to Iraq and was the administration’s coordinator for U.S. policies regarding Afghanistan and Iran, October)
Finally, given the disparities between U.
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a controversial topic like American policy toward Russia.
3. DA tanks Obama’s political capital – trades off with popular programs, spending, and objection to government waste
LA Times 11 (Los Angeles Times April 13, 2011 Wednesday Home Edition THE WORLD; Debt worries crimp aid for 'Arab Spring'; Congress has shut the door on new funds the administration says would shape change. BYLINE: Paul Richter, lexis) MV
U.S. lawmakers not only have
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should not be shifted from their scholarship programs.
4. Jackson-Vanik is key to improving relations – it’s the Rorschach test through which every other policy is interpreted
Lewis 8 (Finlay, Congressional Quarterly Weekly- 08.10.2008, Russia Longs to Graduate At the Top of Trade Class, http://www.ncsj.org/AuxPages/081009CQ_Jackson-Vanik.shtml)
President Obama has repeatedly stressed that he intends
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.S.-Russia relationship,” he said.
5. Strong US-Russia relations prevent extinction – Iran prolif, US-Russia War, terrorism, heg and economic security
Allison and Blackwill 11 (10-30-11 Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School, Robert D. Blackwill, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs "10 Reasons Why Russia Still Matters"http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21469/10_reasons_why_russia_still_matters.html)
That central point is that Russia matters a
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or failure, in advancing our national interests.
2NC
Turns case - U.S.-Russian relations key to Middle East stability.
Vershbow 4 (ALEXANDER, US AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA, STATE DEPARTMENT APRIL 22, 2004)
Russia has thus far reacted cautiously to the
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reform and deal with terrorism at its source.
Will be repealed – Baucus
Dow Jones Newswires 3/15 (http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/03/15/obamas-push-on-trade-with-russia-raises-senate-concerns/#ixzz1pstrT8hj)
Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D.,
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with us now to avoid such an outcome."
Will pass – leaders
The Hill 3/27 (http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/218549-us-russia-leaders-urge-congress-to-provide-path-to-open-trade)
U.S. and Russian leaders agreed
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, we've been looking forward," he said.
Will be repealed – diplomatic trip
Medetsky 2/24 (Anatoly, High-Ranking U.S. Senator Talks Trade , http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/high-ranking-us-senator-talks-trade/453530.html)
A top U.S. senator
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statement quoted AmCham president Andrew Somers as saying.
Will be repealed – consented to entering WTO
Andrei 2/24 (The «Reset» - 3 months left?, Ilyashenko Andrei, Voice of Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_02_24/66838347/)
The beginning of the Reset was quite promising
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of nuclear energy and investment became more active.
Will be repealed – political observers
Kerr 12 (Kevin Kerr, 1/4 financial analyst, over two decades of intensive industry and trading experience, not only as a floor trader and broker, has been an analyst and trading advisor for publications at Weiss Research, Dow Jones Newswire, and Agora Financial “Profit Along Russia’s New Road to Resource Riches,” http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/profit-along-russia%E2%80%99s-new-road-to-resource-riches-13533)
The United States may also present some hurdles
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basically welcome the country to “the club.”
PC is key to getting a vote through
The Hill 3/12 (Ambassador to Russia pushes trade bill after Putin's election there, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/215573-ambassador-to-russia-pushes-trade-bill-defends-record)
McFaul said that Congress needs to lift the
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D-Mont.) to Russia last month.
Obama is pushing and it’s top of the docket
ICTSD 3/21 (International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development, http://ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/128997/)
The highly-anticipated debate over whether to
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when Russia’s WTO membership becomes final this summer.
Aid cut now – Republicans are blocking
Lobe 2/20 (By Jim Lobe 2/20/12, February 20, 2012 Obama Requests Slightly Higher Aid Levels for 2013 http://www.fpif.org/articles/obama_requests_slightly_higher_aid_levels_for_2013, Institute for Policy Studies)
Despite strong pressure to reduce the yawning federal
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not impossible task, during an election year.
Previous spending supercharges the link – Congress has to pick and chose what programs to spend on
VOA News 11 (David Arnold, VOA News, 8-8-11, “US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question,” http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html)
When lawmakers in the U.S.
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East issue when the House bill was passed.
No aid allocations now and if aid was given, it would be routed through allies
US News 3/28 (http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/03/28/source-us-would-funnel-syrian-aid-through-regional-allies)
Obama administration officials acknowledged they are mulling whether
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be done through our allies in the region."
PC is key to pass the bill without Magnitsky
AP 3/27 (http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/us-trade-upgrade-may-1399234.html)
Obama administration officials are trying to keep the
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American companies could be at a competitive disadvantage.
Alternative process will satisify human rights concerns
Fox 12 (Association of Corporate Council, Valentin, 1/30, “What will Russia’s expected accession to the WTO mean for you?” http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=46f25a1f-7012-4f63-b85a-89ee09e646e4)
Although the Obama Administration has signaled commitment to
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complicated by US presidential election later this year.
Magnitsky won’t hurt relations overall
AP 3/17 (Senators push Russia trade restriction replacement, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jLZSQKy62J_7wTOCpYBNqhWeXkWg?docId=6b8377c65cf04f2bae330153c8d53a80)
"While some in the Russian government may
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and is shepherding the bill through the committee.
Human rights concerns are already being addressed – a clean repeal will pass
Martinez 3/14 (Ken, journalist for the Moscow times, McFaul Pushes for Trade Status 2012, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mcfaul-pushes-for-trade-status/454625.html#ixzz1psqMYkmg)
Some in Congress support linking the repeal of
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, there's no upside," the ambassador said.
The positive step of repeal is more important for relations than Magnitsky
Rojansky 3/15 (Matthew Rojansky Deputy Director Russia, Carnegie Endowment, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/15/congress-can-stand-up-for-u.s.-interests-in-russia/a32b)
Thus, when Congress takes up the question
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must play an active role in the relationship.
Libyan aid triggers congressional holds on other agenda items
Emery 11
[Theo, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya” Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html]
The crux of debate over Libya up until
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we going to build in any one time?
Plan requires Obama - current environment ensures debate costs capital.
Chaddock 11.
[Gail Russell, staff writer, “What happens next in Libya? America’s five greatest concerns” Christian Science Monitor -- 8/26]
5. A big aid package With Congress
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something the administration needs to sell the Congress.”
Victories build opposition- wins create resentment for Obama
Purdum 10 (Todd, Award winning journalist for the NYT, Vanity Fair Columnist, December 20, "Obama Is Suffering Because of His Achievements, Not Despite Them", http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/12/obama-is-suffering-because-of-his-achievements-not-despite-them.html)jn
With this weekend’s decisive Senate repeal of the
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sensibly and simply, to the American public.
Takes a long time to rebuild capital
Schaller 9 (Tom, five thirty eight, 8/18/09, Is Obama Spending his Political Capital, Wasting It ... or Wuz He Robbed? http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/is-obama-spending-his-political-capital.html)
Obama is investing now with an eye toward
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rise back to pre-Summer '09 levels.
Jackson-Vanik repeal is the deciding factor for the future of US-Russia relations.
Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media, 2-10
[Nikolas, World Politics Review, “The Realist Prism: Resetting the U.S.-Russia Reset”, 2-23-12
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11441/the-realist-prism-resetting-the-u-s-russia-reset]
The fate of the Jackson-Vanik amendment
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blow to the whole idea of the reset.
Obama’s new leadership style makes his political capital newly effective
Collins 1/3 (Samuel, staff writer for Internatinal.to News, A new presidential swagger for the new year, 2012, http://www.international.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4307:a-new-presidential-swagger-for-the-new-year-&catid=134:writers&Itemid=152, MV)
January 2012 President Obama’s recent political victory -
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and the American public believe in his vision.
Empirically, PC works for repealing Jackson-Vanik
Reuters 12/14 (“Russia in WTO: U.S. Congress Not Ready For Russian WTO Entry,”
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-in-wto-us-congress-not-ready-for-russian-wto-entry/449843.html)
WASHINGTON — The White House faces a
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push by the administration of President Bill Clinton.