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1AC – Iran Advantage

US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed – both sides want to return to the table

ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

By the end of February, the crown

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chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.

Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable

Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html

The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini

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Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.

Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest to gain influence in Bahrain

ICG, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf

At a broader level, and though it

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Shiites will turn to Iran for support.153

Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the

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European and American national interests to do so.

Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

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people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

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complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves

Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

While U.S. and international attention

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national dialogue that charts the future of the country

Middle East war goes Global

Herbert London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, 6-28-2010, “The coming crisis in the Middle East,” Hudson Institute, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

The coming storm in the Middle East is

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if one, falls, the tent collapses.

Saudi–Iran tensions escalate into a regional arms race

Bill Spindle, political analyst, and Margaret Coker, political analyst, 4-16-2011, “The New Cold War”, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html

 For three months, the Arab world

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feel pressure to develop one of its own.

Middle East arms race destabilizes the region and causes nuclear war

Joseph Cirincione, fellow at the CAP, 8-21-2007, "The Middle East Nuclear Surge," http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/08/nuclear_surge.html

Iran is still probably five to 10 years

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, this is a recipe for nuclear war.

Bahraini sectarian violence spills over to Saudi Arabia, triggering a US-Iran war

Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”

Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar

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to maintain stability but also their own power.

Impact – Iran Strike causes nuclear escalation – ends the world

Jorge Hirsch, Professor of physics at the University of California San Diego, 2-20-2006, http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8577

The U.S. has just declared

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made by each and every one of us.

US led dialogue creates credible reform and solves instability

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 6-29-2011, “Tensions in the Persian Gulf After the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/

Hans Hogrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain

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.S. approach is “critically important.”

1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

US not moving fifth fleet now

Hussain Abdulla, political commentator, 7-21-2011, “'US fleet move from Bahrain is a rumor',” PressTV, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/190082.html

Press TV: The US is widely criticized

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completely ignoring the human rights issues in Bahrain. 

Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

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to encourage his quest and hope for success.

US cooperation ensures no base kick out

Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

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to renew the American lease to the base.

US Gulf presence deters Iran heg

Reva Bhalla, Director of Analysis at Stratfor , 7-19-2011, “The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics,” Right Side News, http://www.rightsidenews.com/2011071914093/world/geopolitics/the-us-saudi-dilemma-irans-reshaping-of-persian-gulf-politics.html

So far, Iran’s plan is on track

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. support for the Sunni Arabs against Iran.

Iranian adventurism leads to nuclear war

Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance

That Iran stands today able to challenge or

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severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Fifth fleet presence prevents Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – cuts off global oil supply

Stratfor, 7-1-2008, “Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”, http://www.stratfor.com/node/119249/analysis/iran_threat_strait_hormuz

The U.S. Fifth Fleet insisted

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a summary of how it would play out.

Threat perceptions mean Iran will close the strait

AFP, Agence France Press, 7-4-2011, “Iran ready to close strait of hormuz: general,” http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/iran-ready-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-general-2011-07-04-1.405814

Iran is ready if threatened to close the

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is now on our agenda," said Jafari.

Closing the Strait wrecks the global economy

Geoffrey Gresh, PhD candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter 2010, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 34. 1

Despite such a constricted and congested opening,

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.8 million barrels per day by 2030.

Econ decline causes war

Earl Tilford, PhD in history from George Washington University and served for thirty-two years as a military officer and analyst with the Air Force and Army, 2008, “Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship,” The Cedartown Standard, Lexis

Could it happen again? Bourgeois democracy requires

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world could devolve to that point very quickly.

Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities

Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause

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departure from previous policy than the author implies.

Bahrain is key – best position and infrastructure

Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission at U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, 10-23-2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

In concrete, practical terms, Bahrain’s port

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capabilities and through products and services procured locally.

US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

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often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

Bahraini government will listen to the US

Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the

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more possible in a more stable domestic environment.

1AC – Radicalization Advantage

Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions – reconciliation soon is key

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-2011, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain

The killing of a 14-year-

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entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.

US hypocrisy causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment

Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

So it is particularly infuriating to Muslims when

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with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

Oppression in Bahrain causes regional radicalization

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

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many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Sustained crackdown causes radicalization and terrorism

Hussein Ibish, Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine (ATFP) and Executive Director of the Hala Salaam Maksoud Foundation for Arab-American Leadership, 4-14-2011, “Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat,” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/is_bahrain_creating_a_new_terrorist_threat?page=0,1

A campaign of violence by opposition extremists might

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to avoid this is dwindling by the day.

Terrorism causes extinction – draws in Russia and China

Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Preventing Shia radicalization is the best way to undermine regional terrorism

Ed Husain, senior fellow at the council on Foreign Relations, 1-30-2011, “How should the U.S. respond to the protests in the Middle East?,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012805611.html

I've lived and traveled across the Arab world

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? Yes, it can. It must.

Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons

Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/

Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The

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can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”

Deterrence doesn’t apply

George Shultz, secretary of state from 1982 to 1989, William Perry, secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997,Henry Kissinger, secretary of state from 1973 to 1977, and Sam Nunn, former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee,  1-4-2007, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116787515251566636.html

Nuclear weapons today present tremendous dangers, but

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years as we were during the Cold War?

Offering US mediation creates a legitimate dialogue, solving radicalization and stability

Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

While it may be possible for the US

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the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should offer to mediate a high level dialogue with the Bahraini government and opposition group leaders.