We sometimes cut the Fifth Fleet advantage and read pre-empts. We'll tell you before the round if this is the case.
1AC
1AC – Plan
1AC – Iran Advantage
ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx
By the end of February, the crown
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chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.
Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable
Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html
The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini
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Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.
Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest to gain influence in Bahrain
ICG, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf
At a broader level, and though it
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Shiites will turn to Iran for support.153
Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing
POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the
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European and American national interests to do so.
Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war
NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all
What if the Bahrain venture fails, who
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people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”
Iran Saudi war escalates
Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to
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complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.
Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves
Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers
While U.S. and international attention
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national dialogue that charts the future of the country
Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in
Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm
This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian
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assuming anyone is left to write about it.
High risk
James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
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, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Bahraini sectarian violence spills over to Saudi Arabia, triggering a US-Iran war
Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”
Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar
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to maintain stability but also their own power.
Iran war causes global nuclear war
Toff Daijgneault, staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Wars And Rumors of War---A Strategic View of Any Possible Future Western/israeli Military Strike in The Middle East,” Bukisa, http://www.bukisa.com/articles/369915_wars-and-rumors-of-war-a-strategic-view-of-any-possible-future-westernisraeli-military-strike-in-the-middle-east
Looking at any potential future strike against Iran
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would become dragged in as Iran's strategic partners.
POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 6-29-2011, “Tensions in the Persian Gulf After the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/
Hans Hogrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain
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.S. approach is “critically important.”
1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage
Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable
Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html
But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic
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to encourage his quest and hope for success.
US cooperation ensures no base kick out
Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends
Over in Bahrain, the fall of the
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to renew the American lease to the base.
Fifth fleet presence prevents Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – cuts off global oil supply
Stratfor, 7-1-2008, “Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”,
The U.S. Fifth Fleet insisted
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a summary of how it would play out.
US is key
Craig Cohen, associate vice president for research and programs at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6-2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” CSIS, http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf
Beneath the surface, however, is an
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it in order to advance their own interests.
Threat perceptions mean Iran will close the strait
AFP, Agence France Press, 7-4-2011, “Iran ready to close strait of hormuz: general,” http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/iran-ready-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-general-2011-07-04-1.405814
Iran is ready if threatened to close the
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is now on our agenda," said Jafari.
Closing the Strait wrecks the global economy
Geoffrey Gresh, PhD candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter 2010, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 34. 1
Despite such a constricted and congested opening,
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.8 million barrels per day by 2030.
Econ decline causes war
Earl Tilford, PhD in history from George Washington University and served for thirty-two years as a military officer and analyst with the Air Force and Army, 2008, “Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship,” The Cedartown Standard, Lexis
Could it happen again? Bourgeois democracy requires
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world could devolve to that point very quickly.
Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities
Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/
This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause
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departure from previous policy than the author implies.
Bahrain is key – best position and infrastructure
Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission at U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, 10-23-2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain
In concrete, practical terms, Bahrain’s port
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capabilities and through products and services procured locally.
5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony
Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf
American maritime strategy has played a major role
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needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.
Naval power independently solves great power wars
James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf
Deter major power war. No other disruption
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control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.
Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction
Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture
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the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.
US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility
Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show
Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about
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often pay significant dividends for the host countries.
Bahraini government will listen to the US
Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27
Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the
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more possible in a more stable domestic environment.
1AC – Radicalization Advantage
Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf
Paradoxically, the Arab Spring represents a strategic
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do all that it can to seize it.
Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9
While it may be possible for the US
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the opposition in the wake of the crisis.
Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions – reconciliation soon is key
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-2011, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain
The killing of a 14-year-
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entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.
US hypocrisy causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment
Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
Muslims see this narrative as being used to
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with the Muslim world will become more amicable.
Oppression in Bahrain causes regional radicalization
Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417
Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain
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many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.
Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons
Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/
Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The
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can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”
Nuclear terrorism causes the same causalities and full scale nuke war and nuclear winter
O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.
To an increasing extent, people are congregating
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well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.
Draws in Russia and China
Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the
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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
