AT: FDI Advantage
AT: Nile Wars
Conflicts over the Nile are inevitable – they don’t escalate to war
Tristan McConnell, staff writer, 6-4-2010, “Will Egypt go to War over Nile River Water rights??” The Time, http://craigeisele.wordpress.com/2010/06/05/will-egypt-go-to-war-over-nile-river-water-rights/
The Nile Basin Initiative proposes the formation of
AND
countries are still negotiating, despite the rhetoric.”
Ethiopia’s compromise solves
Ethiopia Insight, 4-4-2011, “Potential solution to the Nile River water war,” http://www.ethiopiainsight.com/news/2011/potential-solution-to-the-nile-river-water-war.htm
Strategypage - Ethiopia has come up with a
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win political situation. Only time will tell.
No escalation – Egypt would get owned
Charles Onyango-Oboo, staff writer, 1-2-2011, “Egypt would get a bloody nose in a River Nile water war (And why women should be allowed to kill – and be killed – in uniform)” Africapedia, http://www.africapedia.com/boards/topic/26
Every now and then, there is sabre
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democratic about that that makes for great soldiering.
( ) Water conflict doesn’t escalate—too many limiting factors
Jacques Leslie, Harper's Magazine, July 1, 2000
Yet such wars haven't quite happened.
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be more persuasive than the impulse toward conflict."
( ) Water wars won’t happen
Journal of Commerce March 31, 1999
So far the often-repeated prediction that
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all the water needed to satisfy national requirements.
AT: FDI Key
The EU CP clearly solves this – stfu MSU
FDI is irrelevant – Egypt is already flush with capital – corruption and bureaucracy mean there’s no demand
Carl Delfeld, staff writer, 2-14-2011, “Revolution in Egypt… But Can It Unlock the Hidden Economic Potential?” Investment U, http://www.investmentu.com/2011/February/can-egyptian-revolution-unlock-hidden-economic-potential.html
Mr. de Soto led a team of
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capital than the value of its stock market.
FDI is up – economic collapse or instability destroys inflows
Marwa Hussein, staff writer, 7-27-2011, “Egypt investment prospects are still unclear: UN body,” Ahram Online, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/17388/Business/Economy/Egypt-investment-prospects-are-still-unclear-UN-bo.aspx
The long-term outlook for foreign direct
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yet derail the FDI recovery," it reads.
Endemic corruption prevents FDI
Ahram Online, 4-30-2011, “Corruption threatens Egypt’s energy plans: new report,” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/11100/Business/Economy/Corruption-threatens-Egypts-energy-plans-new-repor.aspx
A section on solar and wind energy in
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other regions for investment," the chapter concludes.
The link is non-unique – past economic aid signals Egypt is an attractive destination for FDI – FDI only benefits investors not the host
Gregory Elich, on the Board of Directors of the Jasenovac Research Institute and on the Advisory Board of the Korea Truth Commission, 3-22-2011, “Egypt, the American Way. Model of the Status Quo?” Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23876
Mubarak's adoption of the Economic Reform and Structural
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one again open for business." (16)
Uri Dadush, leads the international economics program at the Carnegie Foundation, 7-22-2011, “Egypt In Transition,” Federal News Service, Lexis.
My impression -- this is my point three
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at the same speed as the previous government.
Military blocks – unfettered power and its directly against their interests
David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all
CAIRO — The Egyptian military defends the country
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means there can be no meaningful civilian oversight.”
David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all
Though some Western analysts have guessed that the
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apex of centralized state control, he said.
1NC Say No – Everything
Everyone in Egypt says no to everything – conclusive polling data.
Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.
CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent
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a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.
1NC Saudi Arabia Blocks
Max Strasser, staff writer, 8-5-2011, “Will Saudi Arabia lead Egypt’s counter-revolution?” Al Masryalyoum, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/427433
With Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule finished
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with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
1NC AT: Policy Shift
This is laughable – US democracy assistance can’t shift Egypt’s strategic relationship with the US – the damage has already been done
Steven Cook, Hasib Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at CFR, 2-2-2011, “The US-Egyptian Breakup,” Foreign Affairs.
No Egyptian leader will make Mubarak's mistake again
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disparate political groups wage a struggle among themselves.
Egypt Enterprise Aff
1NC Say No – Everything
Enterprise funds for Egypt spur political debate and Egypt says no – they don’t want strings attached
Tatjana de Kerros, 3-16-2011, “The politics of ‘Aid for Trade’,” The Entrepreneurialist, http://theentrepreneurialist.net/2011/03/16/the-politics-of-aid-for-trade-the-us-egypt-and-enterprise-funds/
The overall concern lies rather in the ‘
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administered locally, and truly serve prospective SMEs.
Yes Egypt Growth
Egyptian growth is high and its inequality is low
Uri Dadush, leads the international economics program at the Carnegie Foundation, 7-22-2011, “Egypt In Transition,” Federal News Service, Lexis.
So the first point is that the underlying
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according to the available -- the available data.
Military blocks – unfettered power and its directly against their interests
David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all
CAIRO — The Egyptian military defends the country
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means there can be no meaningful civilian oversight.”
ME war
U.S. military dominance prevents escalation
David Bosco, Senior Editor, Foreign Policy, 7-23-2006, “Could This Be the Start of World War III?,” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-op-bosco23jul23,0,6188365.story?coll=la-sunday-commentary
As in the run-up to other
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s armies poured across their borders in 1914.
No incentives for global escalation
Gwynne Dwyer (former appointments to the Royal Military College Sandhurst and Oxford University, former member of three different armed services) Winter 2002 "The Coming War," Queen's Quarterly
All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation
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is: we are out of the business.
AT: Egypt-Israel War
New tensions don’t overcome structural stability and mutual interests for peace
Christopher Haynes, pursing a Master's degree in political science at the American University in Cairo and writing for the Atlantic Sentinel, 8-25-2011, “Egypt-Israel Relations Cool But Will Endure,” http://atlanticsentinel.com/2011/08/egypt-israel-relations-cool-but-will-endure/
Tension between Egypt and Israel mounted in recent
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into a state of war any time soon.
1NC AT: Retaliation
Conventional retaliation is most likely
David Sanger and Thom Shanker, New York Times Staff Writers, 5-8-2007, “U.S. Debates Deterrence for Nuclear Terrorism,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/washington/08nuke.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin
Among the subjects of the meeting last year
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a nonnuclear retaliation, whether military or diplomatic.
1NC AT: Nuclear Terrorism
1 in 3 billion chance of successful attack, and the risk decreases everyday
John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. He is the author of Atomic Obsession and a co-author, with Mark Stewart, of the forthcoming book Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security. He is also editor of the webbook Terrorism Since 9/11: The American Cases, 1-1-2008, “Mueller: The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood”,
Assessing the probabilities. In seeking to carry
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become, of course, even more prohibitive.
AT: Suez – Econ
No risk of shutdown and no impact – most oil goes east not west
Gennine Kelly, Staff writer, 1-31-2011, “Suez Canal Concerns are Overblown: Shipping Analyst,” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/41351580/Suez_Canal_Concerns_are_Overblown_Shipping_Analyst
Concerns about supply disruptions in the Suez Canal
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traction than the westbound route," Boyden said.
Suez closure has no impact – low flow and alternate routes
Steve Hargreaves, staff writer, 2-1-2011, “Egypt oil threat may be overblown,” CNN Money, http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_oil_supply/index.htm
But some traders believe the run-up
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brief shortage while the crude was in route.
AT: Egypt Econ Key
Wrong – totally irrelevant
David Parkinson, staff writer, 2-4-2011, “Could Egypt destabilize global economy? Markets say no,” The Globe and Mail, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/market-lab/could-egypt-destabilize-global-economy-markets-say-no/article1895155/
The tensions in Egypt are worrisome on several
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the list of major routes for oil shipments.
David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all
Though some Western analysts have guessed that the
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apex of centralized state control, he said.
David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all
Though some Western analysts have guessed that the
AND
apex of centralized state control, he said.
1NC Say No – Everything
Everyone in Egypt says no to everything – conclusive polling data.
Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.
CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent
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a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.
2NC Say No – Everything
Fear of being labeled stooges – Rejection bestows legitimacy
Even if they are hurting for aid they will reject it – it’s a matter of national pride.
POE – cites concrete polling data
Military propaganda worked – no one is willing to accept
Michael Allen, Staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Egypt’s democracy aid backlash is ‘a strategy to control civil society,’” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-democracy-aid-backlash-a-strategy-to-control-civil-society/
As Egypt and Tunisia enter a dangerous phase
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model for the rest of the Arab world.
2NC
It’s a cultural thing – everyone is hypersensitive to being called a US spy
Paul Richter, staff writer, Jeffrey Fleishman, staff writer, 8-11-2011, “U.S.-Egyptian ties hit rough patch,” LA Times, Lexis.
The Obama administration's plan to pour $65
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don't see U.S support as crucial.
Government propaganda campaign
Desmond Shepard, staff writer, 6-14-2011, “Egypt says no to US democracy funding,” Bikyamasr, http://bikyamasr.com/34746/egypt-says-no-to-us-democracy-funding/
CAIRO: Egypt’s ruling military council has told
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overseeing the country until elections slated for September.
Public says no – xenophobia, military control, and weak US pressure
Vali Nasr, Bloomberg View columnist and a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, 9-1-2011, “Beyond Good Politics, Egypt Needs Economic Remodeling: Vali Nasr,” Bloomberg, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-01/beyond-good-politics-egypt-needs-economic-remodeling-vali-nasr.html
Egypt faces a vortex of poverty and instability
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and Eastern Europe are not available to Egypt.
Leadership Adv
AT: Hearts and Minds
US stance can’t meet rising expectations – hypocrisy inevitable due to limited policy options
Steven Cook, Senior fellow at CFR for Middle Eastern Studies, 5-18-2011, “President Obama’s High Risk, High Reward Speech,” CFR,
Of far more concern is the likelihood that
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and constraints that result in charges of hypocrisy.
Egyptian groups and the government say no to everything – polling data proves they don’t trust US aid.
Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.
CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent
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a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.
This is laughable – US democracy assistance can’t shift Egypt’s strategic relationship with the US – the damage has already been done
Steven Cook, Hasib Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at CFR, 2-2-2011, “The US-Egyptian Breakup,” Foreign Affairs.
No Egyptian leader will make Mubarak's mistake again
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disparate political groups wage a struggle among themselves.
US assistance doesn’t win hearts and minds – Arabs are too skeptical – see the US as controlled by Israel
Omar Barghouti, staff writer, 5-23-2011, “Obama, the Arab Spring and irrelevance,” Mondoweiss,
With Arabs crossing the barrier of fear and
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of the modern history of this strategic region.
No risk of relations collapse or Egypt war or US kickout – our military assistance gives us key leverage that no government can afford to cut off
Ali Younes, stasff writer, 2-14-2011, “The Nature of American-Egyptian Military Relations,” Palestine Chronicle, http://palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=16646
It should come as no surprise that the
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can it match the much stronger Israeli army.
Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation
John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, “A World of Our Making,” Democracy, Issue #21, http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=2
Fourth, all the great powers have alignments
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forces that keep the system anchored and stable.
MENA heg fails --- too many structural barriers to its success --- the transition is stable and regional powers fill in
Leon Hadar, former prof of IR at American University, PHD, 7-1-2011, “Saving US Mideast Policy,” National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556
You don't have to be a strategic analyst
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people of the Middle East and Central Asia.
Gulf States aid prevents Egyptian ties to Iran.
Andrew Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2
Despite the overwhelming importance of domestic issues to
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way even if it wished to do so.
No risk of Iranian influence – Egypt doesn’t want to lose assistance and public opposes ties with Iran.
Andrew Terrill, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” SSI, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27
The future of Egypt is still very much
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to a variety of public opinion polls.31
Iran benefits inevitably
Ali Reza Eshraghi, Staff writer, 2-12-2011, “Iran views Egyptian democracy as helpful to its role in Mid-East,” The Desert News, http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700109278/Iran-views-Egyptian-democracy-as-helpful-to-its-role-in-Mid-East.html
While the United States watches events in Egypt
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is being formed with Iran at the center."
No ties – US alliance outweighs, sectarian divisions, and general animosity
Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor of CFR, 8-30-2011, “Assad regime in Syria crucial to Iran,” CNN, ttp://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/30/syria-and-irans-power-calculus/
I’m sure they aspire to influence the upheavals
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of that street and Iran has long refused.
( ) No Chance of Iranian retaliation – Strikes would be so devastating that they would have no capability to strike back
r. Dan Plesch, Director of the School of Oriental and African Studies’ Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, Martin Butcher, Martin Butcher is an international consultant on security politics, September 2007, Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East, School of Oriental and African Studies, http://www.rawstory.com/images/other/IranStudy082807a.pdf
The US B-2A carries a new
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Saddam's armies, once their positions are known.
AT: Smart Power
Smart power doctrine doesn’t translate into policy success – UN vote statistics and human nature
Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2
Joseph Nye is as gifted at branding as
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engenders resentment, downing out any lingering gratitude.
Foreign aid spending cuts tank smart power
Joseph Nye, prof at Harvard, 4-12-2011, “The War on Soft Power,” FP, ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/12/the_war_on_soft_power?page=0,1
Last week, U.S. President
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, Foggy Bottom faces cuts across the board.
Hard power is sufficient to increase US prestige – soft power fails
Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2
The truth is that many effective exchange programs
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thinking seem soft, if not altogether squishy.
Israel outweighs – it poisons everything the US does in the Middle East
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, Winter 2010, “The Cairo Conundrum,” Democracy, Issue 15, http://www.democracyjournal.org/15/6726.php?page=4
Anti-American anger, and the violence
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will find it easier to tackle other problems.
Public opinion can’t be altered – Arab’s default response is opposition
Andrew Terrill, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” SSI, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27
In an insightful if sardonic comment, leading
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something of a “hero-nation.”4
Have to maintain ties – people cant eat rhetoric
Andrew Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2
The Arab Spring has sometimes brought to mind
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to meet their basic human and material needs.
AT Heg Decline
U.S. Hegemony is high and sustainable—balancing won’t happen
Carla Norrlof, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, 2010, “America’s Global Advantage: US Hegemony and International Cooperation”, p. 2-3
In my view, the doomsayers are mistaken
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not invincible but its dominance is currently steady.
Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation
John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, “A World of Our Making,” Democracy, Issue #21,
Fourth, all the great powers have alignments
AND
forces that keep the system anchored and stable.
AT: Nuclear Terrorism
They are too busy watching porn.
John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. He is the author of Atomic Obsession and a co-author, with Mark Stewart, of the forthcoming book Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security. He is also editor of the webbook Terrorism Since 9/11: The American Cases, 8-2-2011, “The Truth About al Qaeda”,
The chief lesson of 9/11 should
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year, even with 9/11 included.
AT: Retaliation
Democracy checks.
Joseph F. Pilat, Research Assoc. – Int’l Inst. For Strat. Studies, 1999, Survival 40.4, “WMD Terrorism: An Exchange”
The belief that NBC terrorist acts will have
AND
face of such threats tends to be underestimated.
No serious threat of nuclear terrorism – Al Qaeda is weak, their evidence is based on exaggerated threats by the Bush administration
Glenn Carle, fmr deputy national intelligence officer for transnational threats and fmr member of CIA’s Clandestine Service, 7-13-2008, “Overstating Our Fears,” Washington Post,
We do not face a global jihadist "
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thereby comforting the administration's preconceptions and policy inclinations.
Elections Adv
1NC Say No – Everything
Egyptian groups and the government say no to everything – polling data proves they don’t trust US aid.
Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.
CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent
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a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.
MB Radicalization
MB wont radicalize – the US will maintain ties
Barbara Slavin, nonresident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council, 7-5-2011, “Keeping up with Mideast changes,” Politico, Lexis.
Second, on Thursday, Secretary of State
AND
. influence with the Middle East's new leaders.
Increasing democracy assistance causes Egyptian backlash – perceived as favoritism toward secular groups
Steven Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 3-9-2011, “America Shouldn't Hijack Egypt's Revolution,” Foreign Policy.
Washington has a long wish list for the
AND
" about the Muslim Brotherhood's democratic bona fides.
That radicalizes the MB causing Egyptian civil war, war with Israel, and Middle East war
Enver Guseynov, staff writer, 7-10-2011, “Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt,” Suite 101, http://www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984
Within the organization there exists a moderate current
AND
and create additional insecurity in the Middle East.
Accepting US aid is Faustian bargain
Joel Brinkley, Staff writer, 4-5-2009, “How 'democracy' got to be a dirty word,” SFGate, http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-04-05/opinion/17193126_1_democracy-promotion-moroccan-king-advance-democracy
So it may come as a surprise to
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stench of the Bush strategy for many years.
Funding secular groups allows the brotherhood to label them as American loyalists – means they lose the election
Mohamed Abdelbaky, an Egyptian journalist who specializes in democracy and human rights, 8-25-2011, “The Crisis of External Fudning of Egyptian Civil Society,” FIKRA Forum, Mohamed Abdelbaky is an Egyptian journalist who specializes in democracy and human rights
Domestically, the peril of crisis is that
AND
has received, to a much bewildered public.
Uniqueness and link story for our DA is right – next paragraph of their author agrees the MB is moderate now and the plan makes them radical
Saikal 11, (Amin Saikal is professor of Political Science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, The growing power of Egypt's Islamists, http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2815630.html)
These developments can easily be viewed as alarming
AND
kinds of outcomes that could fulfil their preferences.
Transitional government solves Libyan instability
Rod Nordland, Baghdad Bureau Chief in 2003, 9-3-2011, “Libya’s Interim Leaders Aim to Harness Rebel Fighters,” The New York Times, “http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/world/middleeast/04libya.html?partner=rss&emc=rss”
RIPOLI, Libya — Libya’s interim government plans
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armed men and not enough control of them.
Transitional government creating stability now – new reintegration programs
Maria Golovnina and Mohammed Abbas, writers for Reuters, 9-4-2011, “Libyans eye Gadhafi bastions, stability” ttp://www.canada.com/news/Libyans%20Gadhafi%20bastions%20stability/5352408/story.html
NTC officials announced plans to bring their heavily
AND
reintegration schemes for those who fought for Gadhafi.
Moderates control the party now – dialogue with secularists is empowering youths
Caryle Murphy, staff writer, 3-4-2011, “An upside of Arab revolt: Islamists talk democracy,” CSM, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0304/An-upside-of-Arab-revolts-Islamists-talk-democracy
Egypt's Tahrir Square revolution is leapfrogging across the
AND
know, that Islam is compatible with democracy."
Moderates will reign in the MB now – they will act pragmatically
Stratfor, 2-5-2011, “Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood: A Special Report,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110201-egypt-and-muslim-brotherhood-special-report
But the MB is internally divided. It
AND
that it will gradually seek a democratic order.
Moderates will win out – support for initial revolution
Charles Levinson, Staff writer, 2-15-2011, “Brothers in Egypt Present Two Faces,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704629004576135882819143872.html
Both Egyptians and outsiders, however, remain
AND
should get a massive bounce out of this."
Timing
Michael Allen, Staff writer, 5-18-2011, “Egypt’s democrats want level playing field, not ‘unfair fight’,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/egypts-democrats-want-level-playing-field-not-unfair-fight/
The pro-democracy activists that led Egypt’s
AND
play politics where liberals have absolutely no idea.”
Organization and popularity
Efraim Inbar, professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 2-6-2011, “Regional Ramifications of Unrest in Egypt,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives127.html
The naïve voices in Washington, and elsewhere
AND
not rapidly adopt a liberal-democratic ethos.
Mubarak’s trial has killed all chances of liberal transition – the movements are divided and the military has too much power
Eric Trager, Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, 8-5-2011, “Why Mubarak's Trial Could Mean the End of Egypt's Youth Revolution,” The Washington Institution for Near East Policy, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1692
he trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
AND
at odds with a still-autocratic reality.
Eric Trager, PHD candidate, Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-2011, “Egypt's New Political Alliance Could Boost the Islamists,” The Washington institute, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3375
Continuation of the district-based voting system
AND
policy away from U.S. interests.
MB inevitable
Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, 5-10-2011, “Egypt: If A Country of 80 Million People Falls And The Media Is Deaf, Does Anyone Hear?” Pajamas Media, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/05/10/egypt-if-a-country-of-80-million-people-falls-and-the-media-is-deaf-does-anyone-hear/
There are a lot of complaints about the
AND
in a way that they will support me.
Military control of the transition ensures democracy and prevents MB takeover
Leila Fadel, staff writer, 7-17-2011, “Egypt’s generals may maintain large role in governance,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/egypts-generals-may-maintain-large-role-in-governance/2011/07/14/gIQAlZgxJI_story.html
CAIRO — The generals running Egypt ahead of
AND
role in guaranteeing democratic stability in the country.”
Assistance overburdens NGOs – collapses them and hurts their image
Amira Maaty, NED program officer for the Middle East and North Africa, 4-29-2011, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/
With increased attention to Egypt, there will
AND
to derail NGOs from their core focus areas.
Democracy assistance is tainted – substance of the policy is irrelevant
Richard Lappin, siting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, 2-1-2010, “Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses,” Carnegie Council, http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/ethics_online/0042.html
Perhaps the principal challenge that the Obama administration
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only a limited engagement in democracy promotion.5
Michael Allen, Staff writer, 8-19-2011, “Egypt’s military doing ‘exactly what Mubarak did’ to stifle democrats,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-military-doing-exactly-what-mubarak-did-to-stifle-democrats/
The US announced $65 million in assistance
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climate of vulnerability on the part of activists.
Impact D
Moussa can still win, even if the MB sweeps elections – MB isn’t even fielding a candidate
Molly Hennessy-Fiske, 6-23-2011, “Egypt’s would-be president,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/23/world/la-fg-egypt-moussa-20110624
"He might well be the right man
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though that could change after the parliamentary balloting.
South will just differentiate oil supply routes
World Tribune, 9-5-2011, “South Sudan seeks alternatives,” World Tribune, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/af_sudan1111_09_05.asp
The new state of South Sudan has been
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of interest from companies from the Western world."
China ensures Sudanese stability – outweighs Egypt
Stuart Wiggin, 7-19-2011, “Sudanese oil tests,” Global Times, http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/666922/Sudanese-oil-tests-Chinese-resolve-for-non-intervention.aspx
Meanwhile, Zhang Jun, China's economic counselor
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a more apt term from the Chinese perspective.
Lots of alt-causes to the Chinese economy
UPI, 9-5-2011, “Challenges face Chinese economy,” http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2011/09/05/Zoellick-Challenges-face-Chinese-economy/UPI-75111315201114/
China's economy will face structural challenges as
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percent to 8.3 percent in 2012.
( ) China’s economy is resilient – Asian financial crisis proves
Steven F. Jackson, Assoc. Prof and Chair Poly Sci @ Indiana U Penn, 2000, Is China Unstable? Ed. hambuagh
These problems, however, do not necessarily
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its financial problem before it becomes a crisis.
( ) China isn’t key to the global economy
AFP, January 27, 2008
SHANGHAI, Jan 27, 2008 (
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a pullback in American consumption,” he said.
No confrontation – military and civilian restraint
Brad Nelson, PHD, expert on international politics, 6-4-2011, “Egypt's Transition to Democracy: Foreign Policy,” Center for World Conflict and Peace, http://centerforworldconflictandpeace.blogspot.com/2011/06/egypts-transition-to-democracy-foreign_03.html
But let’s take a deep breath for the
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foreign relations don’t turn too confrontational with Israel.
Egypt wont undermine peace with Israel – US pressure
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, 2-2-2011, “Should we fear the Muslim Brotherhood?” Slate,
Ultimately, though, American fears about the
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billions of dollars in much-needed assistance.
Squo Solves
Aid unnecessary – Egypt is already mobilized – if tyranny is coming, the US can’t solve it
Anne Mariel Peters, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, 2-14-2011, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt
The United States should promote democracy in Egypt
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" will not mean more democracy in Egypt.
Yes Liberal Democracy – Consensus
Consensus and strong constitutional roots – overcomes divisions
Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, 2-15-2011, “Egypt's Constitutional Ghosts,” Carnegie Endowment,
It might seem that the past century would
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current constitution are acceptable to most political camps.
Yes Liberal Democracy – Conditions
US will condition aid to the military on liberal transition
Viola Gienger, staff writer, 2-13-2011, “Public praise, private calls keep pentagon connected to Egypt’s Military,” Bloomberg,
John Negroponte, the first U.S
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the coming process of political change in Egypt.”
Solves liberal transition
David Super, staff writer, 8-23-2011, “Time for the US to use its influence in Egypt,” LA Times,
Elections have been scheduled, but without a
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democracy in the heart of the Arab world.
AT: Warming
The Sun is responsible for warming – CERN study postdates all your evidence
IBT (International Business Times), 9-1-2011, “Alarmists Got It Wrong, Humans Not Responsible for Climate Change: CERN”
Research findings published by none other than CERN
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of Energy Probe, wrote about the experiment.
Robert Mendelsohn, Davis Professor of Forest Policy & Professor of Economics, 2009, “Climate Change and Economic Growth,”
The heart of the debate about climate change
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is needed are long-run balanced responses.
AT: Oil Shocks
No impact – oil is only a small part of economies and expanded demand offsets negative effects
Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and Agustin Roitman, Economist IMF, 8-25-2011, “Oil shocks around the world: are they really that bad?”
To put these numbers in perspective, it
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mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag.
Oil shocks don’t cause war
Peter van der Windt, Graduate Fellow at Columbia's Center for the Study of Development Strategies, 4-28-2009, Oil Price Shocks and the Onset of Civil War,
Figure 3 gives the probability for the onset
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an oil price shock leads to civil war.
( ) No wars from econ collapse.
Morris Miller, Winter 2000, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, “Poverty as a cause of wars?” V. 25, Iss. 4, p pq
The question may be reformulated. Do wars
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using one form of violence to abort another).
