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Whitman Humble-Zendeh Neg

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  • Aid Tradeoff DA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1NC Aid Tradeoff

      No cuts now to USAID

      Samuel A Worthington, analyst for the Guardian, 8-1-2011, “US must learn from Britain and not cut foreign aid”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/aug/01/us-foreign-aid-cuts

      Haggling in Congress over bills to fund the

      AND

      which will help shape the final budget numbers.

      Plan trades off

      Lisa Schirch, executive director of the 3D Security Initiative and professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Eastern Mennonite University, 4-27-2007, “7 Obstacles to Budgeting for 3D Security”, http://www.3dsecurity.org/node/138

      Institutional Divisions Create Obstacles for Development and Diplomacy

      AND

      to ensuring adequate investments in development and diplomacy.

      Kills stability and heg

      Micah Zenko, fellow at the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations and Rebecca R. Friedman, research associate in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2-16-2011, “A soft power bargain”, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/16/opinion/la-oe-zenko-fgn-aid-20110216

      In short, a fully funded foreign assistance

      AND

      disregarding their repeated calls for stronger civilian partners.




10/22/11
  • SKFTA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Politics - KY

      KORUS – Its coming – can be derailed

      Southeast Ag Net, 9-26-2011, “Alabama’s McMillan urges Obama, Congress to make Free Trade Agreements a Reality,” http://southeastagnet.com/2011/09/26/alabamas-mcmillan-urges-obama-congress-to-make-free-trade-agreements-a-reality/

      Chances for passage of the three Free Trade

      AND

      which will be taken up alongside trade adjustment.

      plan causes massive backlash

      Emily Cadei, CQ Staff, 5-23-2011, “Obama Aid Initiative No Sure Thing”, Yahoo News, http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20110523/pl_cq_politics/politics000003874266

      The Obama administration's proposed economic assistance for the

      AND

      of scrutiny" right now on Capitol Hill.

      PC is key

      Sukhan Kim, senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, 9-6-2011, Joongang Daily, “Pushing the FTA to the finish Line, http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2941157

      Despite these hurdles, the time has come

      AND

      finally get on with ratification of Korus FTA.

      KORUS key to trade leadership, Asian peace, Japan’s economy, and Japan US alliance

      Gordon Flake, executive director of the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, and Troy Strangarone, director of congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, 8-17-2011, “Why US Needs Korea Trade Deal,” The Diplomat, http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/17/why-us-needs-korea-trade-deal/2/

      Perhaps more important, the ability of the

      AND

      and open to commerce among all nations.

      Trade leadership prevents war

      Panitchpakdi, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 2/26/2004

      [Supachai, former Director-General of

      AND

      _e/spsp22_e.htm]

      I can sum up my message today in

      AND

      peace and prosperity, a more just world.

      The US-Japan alliance prevents nuke war

      [INSS] Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, 10/11/2000

       

      Major war in Europe is inconceivable for at

      AND

      alliance is central to America’s global security strategy.

      Japan econ collapse causes nuke war

      The Guardian 2-11-2002, p ln

      Even so, the west cannot afford to

      AND

      with its bigger (and nuclear) neighbour.

      Asia war causes extinction

      Michael May, Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford, Washington Quarterly, Summer 1997.

      The unpalatable facts, to Europeans and North

      AND

      --leave most of the civilized world devastated

      .

      War causes disease

      Peterson, R. K. D. 1995. Insects,disease, and military history: the Napoleonic campaigns and historical perception. American Entomologist. 41:147-160.

      Bubonic plague in Jaffa, yellow fever in

      AND

      soldier undoubtedly will enhance our understanding of history.

      Nuclear war destroys ecosystems

      John Birks, Associate Professor of Chemistry at the University of Colorado, and Anne Ehrlich, Senior Research Associate in the Department of Biological Sciences at Stanford University, Hidden Dangers Environmental Consequences of Preparing for War, 1990,0 p. 135

      Each nuclear winter effect by itself—sharply

      AND

      just when human survivors were in dire need.

       

       

      Obama reversed his position – he isn’t leading – wont push more aid to Egypt

      Yochi Dreazen, staff writer, 9-7-2011, “State department will name Taylor to lead aid efforts in Libya and Egypt,” National Journal, http://www.nationaljournal.com/state-department-will-name-taylor-to-lead-aid-efforts-in-libya-and-egypt-20110907

      The State Department will formally create a new

      AND

      of the planned American aid has been spent.

       

      House is cutting aid and placing restrictions on Egyptian assistance now.

      Jill Dougherty, CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent, 7-27-2011, “Clinton pushes back on proposed bill to curb State Dept. operations” CNN, Lexis

      In a letter to Rep. Ileana Ros

      AND

      and Yemen, and to the Palestinian Authority."

      Conditions mean no aid for a while

      David Arnold, staff writer, 8-8-2011, “US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question,” VOA News, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html

      When lawmakers in the U.S

      AND

      federal budget, international assistance is a target.”

      Past aid was done after the revolt – created unique political space

      David Arnold, staff writer, 8-16-2011, “Foreign Aid Stirs Debate Amid Egypt’s Democratic Hopes,” VOA News, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Foreign-Aid-Stirs-Debate-Amid-Egypts-Democratic-Hopes-127824353.html

      The recent round of pro-democracy funding

      AND

      brought down long-time President Hosni Mubarak.

       

      There’s no money – aid wont get through

      Egypt Today, 7-10-2011, “Fertilizing the Grassroots,” http://wwww.egypttoday.com/news/display/article/artId:278

      Even with the ouster of Mubarak, it

      AND

      US is committing substantial resources to this project.”

       

      Southeast ag net says TAA cleared the path – KORUS has momentum – cites key senators saying chances are good

      Rapid pace – overcomes future roadblocks

      Donga, 9-26-2011, “`US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month`,” http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=060000&biid=2011092668408

      The U.S. is expected to

      AND

      and Republicans have already agreed to approve it."

      Will pass in south korea – US ratification creates momentum

      Mitch Lies, staff writer, 9-15-2011, “Embassy official: FTA delay threatens deal,” Capital Press, http://www.capitalpress.com/orewash/ml-seoul-free-trade-agreement-092311

      Wayman said U.S. support for

      AND

      "but that is by no means guaranteed."

      Reciprocation ensures passage

      Park Si-soo, staff writer, 9-1-2011, “Parties to keep pace with US in passing FTA,” Korea Times, Lexis.

      The ruling and opposition parties agreed Thursday to

      AND

      citing political sources in the U.S.

       

      DICKINSON CONCLUDES NEG – prefer this evidence because its from a peer reviewed journal and isn’t just a random blog post.

      Dickinson, yes the same damn one, 2009 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

      Small wonder, then, that initial efforts

      AND

      vote (Beckmann 2008, n.d.).  

       

      Marshall Plan links to politics – goes against entrenched interests

      Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business, 2-28-2011, “A Marshall Plan for the Middle East,” http://glennhubbard.net/commentary-and-op-eds/322-a-marshall-plan-for-the-middle-east.html

      Unfortunately, it will not be easy to

      AND

      the aid system to the region as well.

      no risk of alliance break down regardless of KORUS

      Viola Ginger and Bomi Lim, 1-14-2011, “Gates Calls for Close Ties to Deter Next North Korean Attack” Bloomberg, “http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/gates-calls-for-close-ties-to-deter-next-north-korean-attack.html”

      U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates

      AND

      the process should be North-South engagement.”

       

      Doesn’t hurt the alliance

       Scott Snyder Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Economic Interdependence, Alliance Cooperation, and Sino-U.S. Complex Interdependence” December 23, 2010 The East Asia Institute Issue Briefing No. MASI 2010-07

      2010

      China’s rising economic strength has highlighted a need

      AND

      Kahler and Kastner 2006, 523-541).

       

      (  )  Human and environmental resiliency prevents extinction from loss of bio-d

      Holly Doremus, Professor of Law, U

      AND

      . Rev. 11, winter 2000 is one

      The Rhetoric and Reality of Nature Protection:

      AND

      Lee L. Rev. 11 (2000).

      In recent years, this discourse frequently has

      AND

      species, it likely will hold people.  n215

       

      (  )  Biodiversity isn’t key to survival

      Calgary Herald, 8-30-1997

      Ecologists have long maintained that diversity is one

      AND

      of ecosystem function and insurance against ecological collapse."

       

      (  )  It’s already too late

      Norman Myers, Visiting Fellow at Green College

      AND

      , Biodiversity II, p. 136-137

      Ozone-destroying CFCs now in the at

      AND

      if it were relieved of humankind's continuing disruptions.

       

      No impact – diseases evolve to be more mild and humans evolve past vulnerabilities.

      Joel AchenbachWashington Post Staff Writer, 2003, "Our Friend, the Plague," Nov, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0311/resources_who.html

      Whenever a new disease appears somewhere on our

      AND

      it's nothing—just a touch of plague.

      Diseases strong enough to cause quick deaths kill their hosts too fast to spread rapidly.

      Lafee 9 (“Viruses versus hosts: a battle as old as time”, SCOTT MAY 3, http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/may/03/1n3virus01745-viruses-versus-hosts-battle-old-time/?uniontrib)KM

      Generally speaking, it's not in a virus's

      AND

      end. We sicken and die too soon.”

       

      Politics - GSU

      SKFTA will pass, but could face obstacles

      Southeast Farm Press, 9-16-2011, “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs,” http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas

      Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-

      AND

      with Colombia, Panama and South Korea. 



      Reid indicated action on TAA and, later

      AND

      agreements were signed more than four years ago.



      Plan costs PC

      Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Doha Center, 1-27-2011, “Tunisia, Egypt, Arab world need bold US support for democracy, not mixed messages,” Jewish World Review, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0111/middle_east_democracy.php3

      These actions have a clear intent — to

      AND

      Oddly, they've become more difficult to find.

       

      PC is key

      Wharton School, U of Penn, 1-12-2011, “U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?,” http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671

      Last March, when President Obama announced his

      AND

      anti-trade Democrats and Tea Party Republicans.

      Key to the alliance

      Mark Manyin, specialist in Asian affairs with the CRS, and William Cooper, specialist in International Trade and Finance with the CRS, 2009, “Can the United States and South Korea Sing Without KORUS?” CRS,

      Although the passage of the KORUS FTA is

      AND

      U.S. troops on the peninsula.

      Solves NK and other scenarios for war

      Charles L. Pritchard, President, Korea Economic Institute, John Tilelli, Chairman and CEO, Cypress Int’l, and Scott Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, June 16, 2009, “A New Chapter for U.S.-South Korea alliance” Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/publication/19635/new_chapter_for_ussouth_korea_alliance.html

      While all eyes have been trained on North

      AND

      cooperation in the service of our shared interests.

      North Korea war goes nuclear

      Peter Hayes, prof at Victoria University, and Michael Green, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, 1-5-2010, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf

      The consequences of failing to address the proliferation

      AND

      that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

       




10/22/11
  • EU CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The European Union should provide election assistance for Tunisia.

      EU assistance and expertise is sufficient to sustain a Tunisian transition

      Maria Cristina Paciello, Lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Developing Countries at the Faculty of Oriental Studies of ‘‘La Sapienza’’, University of Rome, May 2011, “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”, Mediterranean Prospects (MedPro), a consortium of 17 highly reputed institutions from throughout the Mediterranean, http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/book/2011/05/MEDPRO%20TR%20No%203%20Paciello%20on%20Tunisia.pdf

      The EU has a crucial role to play

      AND

      , particularly educated, and benefit disadvantaged regions.




10/22/11
  • Tunisia Case Cards

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Credibility

      AT: Credibility Advantage

      *Their author concludes interfering with elections hurts US credibility in the region worse

      John L. Esposito, prof, 7-26-2011, “When Words Fail,” Middle East Online, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47349

      Gallup's 'Egypt from Tahrir to Transition' underscores the

      AND

      the U.S. model of democracy.

      *The “double standards” in their evidence are Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria – their aff doesn’t even make the list

      James M. Dorsey, 5-18-2011, “Obama effort to recalibrate Mideast policy,” Al Arabiya, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/18/149581.html

      Washington’s enhanced street credibility in Cairo and Tunis

      AND

      have accused the US of applying double standards.

       

      *No spillover – Even if they somehow win that the plan restores credibility in the Arab world, they have ZERO spillover evidence to broader Obama cred – Iran and North Korea don’t give a shit about Tunisia when deciding whether to proliferate

       

      AT:  Hearts and Minds

      Can’t change perception -

      Soumaya Ghannoushi, staff writer, 5-26-2011, “Obama, hands off our spring,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring

      The first wave of Arab revolutions is entering

      AND

      a thin cloak of democracy and human rights.

      AT:  Hearts and Minds

      US stance can’t meet rising expectations – hypocrisy inevitable due to limited policy options

      Steven Cook, Senior fellow at CFR for Middle Eastern Studies, 5-18-2011, “President Obama’s High Risk, High Reward Speech,” CFR, http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/president-obamas-high-risk-high-reward-speech/p25032

      Of far more concern is the likelihood that

      AND

      and constraints that result in charges of hypocrisy.

       

       

      AT:  Smart Power

      Smart power doctrine doesn’t translate into policy success – UN vote statistics and human nature

      Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2

      Joseph Nye is as gifted at branding as

      AND

      engenders resentment, downing out any lingering gratitude.

      AT:  Soft Power

      American soft power is unworkable – nations don’t believe in benevolent hegemony enough to overwhelm their resentment and fear***

      Christopher Layne, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, 2007 “American Empire: A Debate” p 68

      Doubtless, American primacy has its dimension of

      AND

      limited by the very enormity of its power.

      1NC AT:  Competitiveness – Yes Heg

      U.S. Hegemony is high and sustainable—balancing won’t happen

      Carla Norrlof, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, 2010, “America’s Global Advantage: US Hegemony and International Cooperation”, p. 2-3

      In my view, the doomsayers are mistaken

      AND

      invincible but its dominance is currently steady.

      AT:  Soft Power

      Hard power is sufficient to increase US prestige – soft power fails

      Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2

      The truth is that many effective exchange programs

      AND

      thinking seem soft, if not altogether squishy.

      AT:  Smart Power

      Foreign aid spending cuts tank smart power

      Joseph Nye, prof at Harvard, 4-12-2011, “The War on Soft Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/12/the_war_on_soft_power?page=0,1

      Last week, U.S. President

      AND

      , Foggy Bottom faces cuts across the board.

      AT:  Indo-Pak War

      No India-Pakistan conflict – global economic integration

      Dawood Marmoon, Institute of International Studies (Netherlands) and Global Development Network, 12-5-2007, “Trading for peace,” The Broker, http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/index.php/en/layout/set/print/articles/Trading-for-peace

      Our research has found that military expenditures tend

      AND

      hostilities between them are more likely to diminish.

      AT:  Soft Power – No Impact

      Obama cannot just charm problems away – soft power cannot deal with almost every world threat

      Gieldon Rachman, Writer for the Financial Times, 6-1-2009, “Obama and the limits of soft power,”

      Barack Obama is a soft power president.

      AND

      they will be just as dangerous as before.

       

      AT:  Heg – Transition Wars

      Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation

      John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, “A World of Our Making,” Democracy, Issue #21, http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=2

      Fourth, all the great powers have alignments

      AND

      forces that keep the system anchored and stable.

      AT:  Iran Prolif

      (  )  Iranian proliferation is stable – doesn’t lead to regional proliferation, they won’t give weapons to terrorists or become more aggressive, and they are deterrable

      Christopher Layne, Professor of International Studies at the University of Miami. 2007. American Empire: A Debate. Pg. 79-80

      The same architects of illusion who fulminated for

      AND

      contained and deterred successfully by the United States.

      U.S. conventional superiority and regional factors drive proliferation

      Ben Lerner (ed.), Director of Policy

      AND

      Paper By: The New Deterrent Working Group”

      Domestic/Regional Factors The White Paper on

      AND

      equalizer.’”42 (Emphasis added.)

       

      No Iran prolif

      Patrick Disney, grad student focusing on Iran and nuclear npt at Yale, former Assistant Policy Director for the National Iranian American Council, 08/02/2011, “Is Iran Really After a Nuclear Bomb?,” The Atlantic,

      Iran's government therefore has to make an active

      AND

      not to cross the nuclear threshold. Yet.

       

      AT:  Iran War

      (  )  No Chance of Iranian retaliation – Strikes would be so devastating that they would have no capability to strike back

      Dr. Dan Plesch, Director of the School of Oriental and African Studies’ Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, Martin Butcher, Martin Butcher is an international consultant on security politics, September 2007, Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East, School of Oriental and African Studies, http://www.rawstory.com/images/other/IranStudy082807a.pdf

      The US B-2A carries a new

      AND

      Saddam's armies, once their positions are known.

       

      AT:  Sino-India Conflict

      Sino-India conflict settled with diplomacy now – antagonism is a misperception

      The Hindu, 1-8-2010, Ties with china on even keel, http://beta.thehindu.com/news/national/article77301.ece

      While maintaining that ties with China were on

      AND

      in India about the contours of the relationship.

      AT:  Iran Heg

      Can’t happen – too many constraints

      Gregory Scoblete, associate editor at RealClearWorld, 9-11-2009, “The Hidden Cost of Containing Iran,” Real Clear World, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/09/11/the_hidden_cost_of_containing_iran_97150.html

      Whatever revolutionary dreams Iran's leadership may still harbor

      AND

      on its ability to influence world oil prices.

      AT:  Iran Heg – Syria Thumper

      Assad is doomed

      Alistair Lyon, staff writer, 8-22-2011, “Unease surrounds the seemingly inevitable transition of post-Assad Syria,” The China Post, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/reuters/2011/08/22/314164/Unease-surrounds.htm

      LONDON -- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

      AND

      Assad's days in the presidential palace are numbered.

      Kills Iran heg

      Masoud Shafaee, Middle East analyst for World Politics Review, 8-5-2011, “For Iran, Setbacks Outweigh Gains in Arab Spring,” WPR, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9695/for-iran-setbacks-outweigh-gains-in-arab-spring

      And then there is Iran's chief regional ally

      AND

      death toll since demonstrations broke out in March.

       

       

       

      AT:  MENA Heg

      MENA heg fails --- too many structural barriers to its success --- the transition is stable and regional powers fill in

      Leon Hadar, former prof of IR at American University, PHD, 7-1-2011, “Saving US Mideast Policy,” National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556

      You don't have to be a strategic analyst

      AND

      people of the Middle East and Central Asia.

      Democracy

       

       

       

      Tunisia Says No - General

      Tunisia says no

      Carolyn Barnett, Marshall Scholar, Studying for an MA in Islamic Studies at U London, 6-23-2011, “When We Don't Need U.S. Aid,” Policymic, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=664

      The real question is not what form assistance

      AND

      to denounce foreign intervention in political reform efforts.

      Tunisia Not Key - General

      Tunisian democracy is not sufficient to solve Middle East democracy

      Nico Colombant, Staff Writer, 1-19-2011, “Tunisia Experts Call for US Transitional Help With Limits”, Voice of America, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Tunisia-Experts-Call-for-US-Transitional-Help-With-Limits-114245129.html

      "Subtlety is not exactly something we do

      AND

      corrupt, autocratic governments which dominate the region.

      Yes Liberal Democracy - General

      Tunisian transition democracy is inevitable—multiple warrants

      Fouad Hamdan, former DPA correspondent in Cairo and the Gulf, was the founding executive director of the Arab Human Rights Fund, 8-30-2011, “Tunisian Progress to Democracy Unstoppable”, Institute for War and Peace Reporting: Arab Spring Issue 28, http://iwpr.net/report-news/tunisian-progress-democracy-unstoppable

      Despite continuing protests and efforts by Ben Ali

      AND

      will pursue it because they never give up.”

      Yes Global Democracy

      Trends are misleading – democracy is still solidly ahead

      Arch Puddington, director of research at Freedom House, April 2009, “A Third Year of Decline,” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 20, No. 2.

      Although 2008 marked the third consecutive year of

      AND

      world, these are in most cases reversible.

       

      AT: Diamond

      Diamond evidence is terrible – democracy is necessary but not sufficient to solve terrorism, environmental degradation, or the economy

      1NC Democracy Bad – System Level

      Increasing the number of democracies increases the risk of war amongst democracy – prefer our system level analysis to their dyad focus

      Erik Gartzke, prof at University of California, San Diego, and Alex Weisiger, Prof at U Penn, 4-10-2010, “Permanent Friends?”

      The world is a dynamic place; change

      AND

      dyadic theories and empirical models (Harrison 2002).

      1NC Democracy Bad – Institutional Checks

      Internal restraints prevent autocracies from going to war

      Sebastian Rosato, PHD, Prof of Poli Sci, U Notre Dame, November 2003, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 4

      Autocratic Constraint. Autocratic leaders typically represent themselves

      AND

      1987, 37; see also Dassel 1997).

      A2: ME War Escalates

      U.S. military dominance prevents escalation

      David Bosco, Senior Editor, Foreign Policy, 7-23-2006, “Could This Be the Start of World War III?,” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-op-bosco23jul23,0,6188365.story?coll=la-sunday-commentary

      As in the run-up to other

      AND

      s armies poured across their borders in 1914.

      AT:  Arab Democracy Good – War

      The democratic peace theory doesn’t apply to the Middle East

      Michael Hudson, Professor of International Relations and Seif Ghobash Professor of Arab Studies at Georgetown University, 1995, Democracy War & Peace, p. 217

      The following tentative conclusions can be drawn from

      AND

      investigation of the democratization and foreign policy question.




09/24/11
  • Egypt Case Cards

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UNLV BV | Judge:

    • AT: FDI Advantage

      AT:  Nile Wars

      Conflicts over the Nile are inevitable – they don’t escalate to war

      Tristan McConnell, staff writer, 6-4-2010, “Will Egypt go to War over Nile River Water rights??” The Time, http://craigeisele.wordpress.com/2010/06/05/will-egypt-go-to-war-over-nile-river-water-rights/

      The Nile Basin Initiative proposes the formation of

      AND

      countries are still negotiating, despite the rhetoric.”

      Ethiopia’s compromise solves

      Ethiopia Insight, 4-4-2011, “Potential solution to the Nile River water war,” http://www.ethiopiainsight.com/news/2011/potential-solution-to-the-nile-river-water-war.htm

      Strategypage - Ethiopia has come up with a

      AND

      win political situation. Only time will tell.

      No escalation – Egypt would get owned

      Charles Onyango-Oboo, staff writer, 1-2-2011, “Egypt would get a bloody nose in a River Nile water war (And why women should be allowed to kill – and be killed – in uniform)” Africapedia, http://www.africapedia.com/boards/topic/26

      Every now and then, there is sabre

      AND

      democratic about that that makes for great soldiering.

       

      (  )  Water conflict doesn’t escalate—too many limiting factors

      Jacques Leslie, Harper's Magazine, July 1, 2000

          Yet such wars haven't quite happened.

      AND

      be more persuasive than the impulse toward conflict."

       

      (  )  Water wars won’t happen

      Journal of Commerce March 31, 1999

      So far the often-repeated prediction that

      AND

      all the water needed to satisfy national requirements.

       

      AT:  FDI Key

      All our no econ reforms cards apply here

      The EU CP clearly solves this – stfu MSU

      FDI is irrelevant – Egypt is already flush with capital – corruption and bureaucracy mean there’s no demand

      Carl Delfeld, staff writer, 2-14-2011, “Revolution in Egypt… But Can It Unlock the Hidden Economic Potential?” Investment U, http://www.investmentu.com/2011/February/can-egyptian-revolution-unlock-hidden-economic-potential.html

      Mr. de Soto led a team of

      AND

      capital than the value of its stock market.

      FDI is up – economic collapse or instability destroys inflows

      Marwa Hussein, staff writer, 7-27-2011, “Egypt investment prospects are still unclear: UN body,” Ahram Online, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/17388/Business/Economy/Egypt-investment-prospects-are-still-unclear-UN-bo.aspx

      The long-term outlook for foreign direct

      AND

      yet derail the FDI recovery," it reads.

      Endemic corruption prevents FDI

      Ahram Online, 4-30-2011, “Corruption threatens Egypt’s energy plans: new report,” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/11100/Business/Economy/Corruption-threatens-Egypts-energy-plans-new-repor.aspx

      A section on solar and wind energy in

      AND

      other regions for investment," the chapter concludes.

      The link is non-unique – past economic aid signals Egypt is an attractive destination for FDI – FDI only benefits investors not the host

      Gregory Elich, on the Board of Directors of the Jasenovac Research Institute and on the Advisory Board of the Korea Truth Commission, 3-22-2011, “Egypt, the American Way. Model of the Status Quo?” Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23876

      Mubarak's adoption of the Economic Reform and Structural

      AND

      one again open for business." (16)

      Yes Market Reforms

      Market reforms inevitable – no government will jeopardize investments

      Uri Dadush, leads the international economics program at the Carnegie Foundation, 7-22-2011, “Egypt In Transition,” Federal News Service, Lexis.

      My impression -- this is my point three

      AND

      at the same speed as the previous government.

       

      AT:  Econ Reforms

      Military blocks – unfettered power and its directly against their interests

      David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all

      CAIRO — The Egyptian military defends the country

      AND

      means there can be no meaningful civilian oversight.”

      Society wont accept market reforms – too much pressure

      David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all

      Though some Western analysts have guessed that the

      AND

      apex of centralized state control, he said.

      1NC Say No – Everything

      Everyone in Egypt says no to everything – conclusive polling data.

      Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.

      CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent

      AND

      a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.

      1NC Saudi Arabia Blocks

      Saudi Arabia blocks Egyptian reforms – massive leverage

      Max Strasser, staff writer, 8-5-2011, “Will Saudi Arabia lead Egypt’s counter-revolution?” Al Masryalyoum, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/427433

      With Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule finished

      AND

      with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.  

      1NC AT:  Policy Shift

      This is laughable – US democracy assistance can’t shift Egypt’s strategic relationship with the US – the damage has already been done

      Steven Cook, Hasib Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at CFR, 2-2-2011, “The US-Egyptian Breakup,” Foreign Affairs.

      No Egyptian leader will make Mubarak's mistake again

      AND

      disparate political groups wage a struggle among themselves.

       

      Egypt Enterprise Aff

      1NC Say No – Everything

      Enterprise funds for Egypt spur political debate and Egypt says no – they don’t want strings attached

      Tatjana de Kerros, 3-16-2011, “The politics of ‘Aid for Trade’,” The Entrepreneurialist, http://theentrepreneurialist.net/2011/03/16/the-politics-of-aid-for-trade-the-us-egypt-and-enterprise-funds/

      The overall concern lies rather in the ‘

      AND

      administered locally, and truly serve prospective SMEs.

       

      Yes Egypt Growth

      Egyptian growth is high and its inequality is low

      Uri Dadush, leads the international economics program at the Carnegie Foundation, 7-22-2011, “Egypt In Transition,” Federal News Service, Lexis.

      So the first point is that the underlying

      AND

      according to the available -- the available data.

      AT:  Econ Reforms

      Military blocks – unfettered power and its directly against their interests

      David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all

      CAIRO — The Egyptian military defends the country

      AND

      means there can be no meaningful civilian oversight.”

       

       

      ME war

      U.S. military dominance prevents escalation

      David Bosco, Senior Editor, Foreign Policy, 7-23-2006, “Could This Be the Start of World War III?,” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-op-bosco23jul23,0,6188365.story?coll=la-sunday-commentary

      As in the run-up to other

      AND

      s armies poured across their borders in 1914.

      No incentives for global escalation

      Gwynne Dwyer (former appointments to the Royal Military College Sandhurst and Oxford University, former member of three different armed services) Winter 2002 "The Coming War," Queen's Quarterly

      All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation

      AND

      is: we are out of the business.

       

      AT:  Egypt-Israel War

       

      New tensions don’t overcome structural stability and mutual interests for peace

      Christopher Haynes, pursing a Master's degree in political science at the American University in Cairo and writing for the Atlantic Sentinel, 8-25-2011, “Egypt-Israel Relations Cool But Will Endure,” http://atlanticsentinel.com/2011/08/egypt-israel-relations-cool-but-will-endure/

      Tension between Egypt and Israel mounted in recent

      AND

      into a state of war any time soon.

      1NC AT:  Retaliation

      Conventional retaliation is most likely

      David Sanger and Thom Shanker, New York Times Staff Writers, 5-8-2007, “U.S. Debates Deterrence for Nuclear Terrorism,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/washington/08nuke.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin

      Among the subjects of the meeting last year

      AND

      a nonnuclear retaliation, whether military or diplomatic.

      1NC AT:  Nuclear Terrorism

      1 in 3 billion chance of successful attack, and the risk decreases everyday

      John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. He is the author of Atomic Obsession and a co-author, with Mark Stewart, of the forthcoming book Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security. He is also editor of the webbook Terrorism Since 9/11: The American Cases,  1-1-2008, “Mueller: The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood”,

      Assessing the probabilities. In seeking to carry

      AND

      become, of course, even more prohibitive.

       

      AT:  Suez – Econ

      No risk of shutdown and no impact – most oil goes east not west

      Gennine Kelly, Staff writer, 1-31-2011, “Suez Canal Concerns are Overblown: Shipping Analyst,” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/41351580/Suez_Canal_Concerns_are_Overblown_Shipping_Analyst

      Concerns about supply disruptions in the Suez Canal

      AND

      traction than the westbound route," Boyden said.

      Suez closure has no impact – low flow and alternate routes

      Steve Hargreaves, staff writer, 2-1-2011, “Egypt oil threat may be overblown,” CNN Money, http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_oil_supply/index.htm

      But some traders believe the run-up

      AND

      brief shortage while the crude was in route.

       

      AT:  Egypt Econ Key

      Wrong – totally irrelevant

      David Parkinson, staff writer, 2-4-2011, “Could Egypt destabilize global economy? Markets say no,” The Globe and Mail, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/market-lab/could-egypt-destabilize-global-economy-markets-say-no/article1895155/

      The tensions in Egypt are worrisome on several

      AND

      the list of major routes for oil shipments.

       

      Society wont accept market reforms – too much pressure

      David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all

      Though some Western analysts have guessed that the

      AND

      apex of centralized state control, he said.

       

      Society wont accept market reforms – too much pressure

      David Kirkpatrick, staff writer, 2-17-2011, “Egyptians say military discourages an Open Economy,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18military.html?pagewanted=all

      Though some Western analysts have guessed that the

      AND

      apex of centralized state control, he said.

      1NC Say No – Everything

      Everyone in Egypt says no to everything – conclusive polling data.

      Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.

      CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent

      AND

      a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.

      2NC Say No – Everything

      Fear of being labeled stooges – Rejection bestows legitimacy

      Even if they are hurting for aid they will reject it – it’s a matter of national pride.

      POE – cites concrete polling data

      Military propaganda worked – no one is willing to accept

      Michael Allen, Staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Egypt’s democracy aid backlash is ‘a strategy to control civil society,’” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-democracy-aid-backlash-a-strategy-to-control-civil-society/

      As Egypt and Tunisia enter a dangerous phase

      AND

      model for the rest of the Arab world.

       

      2NC

      It’s a cultural thing – everyone is hypersensitive to being called a US spy

      Paul Richter, staff writer, Jeffrey Fleishman, staff writer, 8-11-2011, “U.S.-Egyptian ties hit rough patch,” LA Times, Lexis.

      The Obama administration's plan to pour $65

      AND

      don't see U.S support as crucial.

      Government propaganda campaign

      Desmond Shepard, staff writer, 6-14-2011, “Egypt says no to US democracy funding,” Bikyamasr, http://bikyamasr.com/34746/egypt-says-no-to-us-democracy-funding/

      CAIRO: Egypt’s ruling military council has told

      AND

      overseeing the country until elections slated for September.

      Public says no – xenophobia, military control, and weak US pressure

      Vali Nasr, Bloomberg View columnist and a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, 9-1-2011, “Beyond Good Politics, Egypt Needs Economic Remodeling: Vali Nasr,” Bloomberg, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-01/beyond-good-politics-egypt-needs-economic-remodeling-vali-nasr.html

      Egypt faces a vortex of poverty and instability

      AND

      and Eastern Europe are not available to Egypt.

      Leadership Adv

      AT:  Hearts and Minds

      US stance can’t meet rising expectations – hypocrisy inevitable due to limited policy options

      Steven Cook, Senior fellow at CFR for Middle Eastern Studies, 5-18-2011, “President Obama’s High Risk, High Reward Speech,” CFR,

      Of far more concern is the likelihood that

      AND

      and constraints that result in charges of hypocrisy.

       

      Egyptian groups and the government say no to everything – polling data proves they don’t trust US aid.

      Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.

      CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent

      AND

      a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.

      This is laughable – US democracy assistance can’t shift Egypt’s strategic relationship with the US – the damage has already been done

      Steven Cook, Hasib Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at CFR, 2-2-2011, “The US-Egyptian Breakup,” Foreign Affairs.

      No Egyptian leader will make Mubarak's mistake again

      AND

      disparate political groups wage a struggle among themselves.

      US assistance doesn’t win hearts and minds – Arabs are too skeptical – see the US as controlled by Israel

      Omar Barghouti, staff writer, 5-23-2011, “Obama, the Arab Spring and irrelevance,” Mondoweiss,

      With Arabs crossing the barrier of fear and

      AND

      of the modern history of this strategic region.

      No risk of relations collapse or Egypt war or US kickout – our military assistance gives us key leverage that no government can afford to cut off

      Ali Younes, stasff writer, 2-14-2011, “The Nature of American-Egyptian Military Relations,” Palestine Chronicle, http://palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=16646

      It should come as no surprise that the

      AND

      can it match the much stronger Israeli army.

      Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation

      John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, “A World of Our Making,” Democracy, Issue #21, http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=2

      Fourth, all the great powers have alignments

      AND

      forces that keep the system anchored and stable.

      MENA heg fails --- too many structural barriers to its success --- the transition is stable and regional powers fill in

      Leon Hadar, former prof of IR at American University, PHD, 7-1-2011, “Saving US Mideast Policy,” National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556

      You don't have to be a strategic analyst

      AND

      people of the Middle East and Central Asia.

      Gulf States aid prevents Egyptian ties to Iran.

      Andrew Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2

      Despite the overwhelming importance of domestic issues to

      AND

      way even if it wished to do so.

      No risk of Iranian influence – Egypt doesn’t want to lose assistance and public opposes ties with Iran.

      Andrew Terrill, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” SSI, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

      The future of Egypt is still very much

      AND

      to a variety of public opinion polls.31

      Iran benefits inevitably

      Ali Reza Eshraghi, Staff writer, 2-12-2011, “Iran views Egyptian democracy as helpful to its role in Mid-East,” The Desert News, http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700109278/Iran-views-Egyptian-democracy-as-helpful-to-its-role-in-Mid-East.html

      While the United States watches events in Egypt

      AND

      is being formed with Iran at the center."

      No ties – US alliance outweighs, sectarian divisions, and general animosity

      Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor of CFR, 8-30-2011, “Assad regime in Syria crucial to Iran,” CNN, ttp://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/30/syria-and-irans-power-calculus/

      I’m sure they aspire to influence the upheavals

      AND

      of that street and Iran has long refused.

      (  )  No Chance of Iranian retaliation – Strikes would be so devastating that they would have no capability to strike back

      r. Dan Plesch, Director of the School of Oriental and African Studies’ Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, Martin Butcher, Martin Butcher is an international consultant on security politics, September 2007, Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East, School of Oriental and African Studies, http://www.rawstory.com/images/other/IranStudy082807a.pdf

      The US B-2A carries a new

      AND

      Saddam's armies, once their positions are known.

      AT:  Smart Power

      Smart power doctrine doesn’t translate into policy success – UN vote statistics and human nature

      Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2

      Joseph Nye is as gifted at branding as

      AND

      engenders resentment, downing out any lingering gratitude.

      Foreign aid spending cuts tank smart power

      Joseph Nye, prof at Harvard, 4-12-2011, “The War on Soft Power,” FP, ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/12/the_war_on_soft_power?page=0,1

      Last week, U.S. President

      AND

      , Foggy Bottom faces cuts across the board.

      Hard power is sufficient to increase US prestige – soft power fails

      Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2

      The truth is that many effective exchange programs

      AND

      thinking seem soft, if not altogether squishy.

      Israel outweighs – it poisons everything the US does in the Middle East

      Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, Winter 2010, “The Cairo Conundrum,” Democracy, Issue 15, http://www.democracyjournal.org/15/6726.php?page=4

      Anti-American anger, and the violence

      AND

      will find it easier to tackle other problems.

      Public opinion can’t be altered – Arab’s default response is opposition

      Andrew Terrill, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” SSI, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

      In an insightful if sardonic comment, leading

      AND

      something of a “hero-nation.”4

      Have to maintain ties – people cant eat rhetoric

      Andrew Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2

      The Arab Spring has sometimes brought to mind

      AND

      to meet their basic human and material needs.

       

      AT Heg Decline

      U.S. Hegemony is high and sustainable—balancing won’t happen

      Carla Norrlof, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, 2010, “America’s Global Advantage: US Hegemony and International Cooperation”, p. 2-3

      In my view, the doomsayers are mistaken

      AND

      not invincible but its dominance is currently steady.

      Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation

      John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, “A World of Our Making,” Democracy, Issue #21,

      Fourth, all the great powers have alignments

      AND

      forces that keep the system anchored and stable.

      AT:  Nuclear Terrorism

      They are too busy watching porn.

      John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. He is the author of Atomic Obsession and a co-author, with Mark Stewart, of the forthcoming book Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security. He is also editor of the webbook Terrorism Since 9/11: The American Cases,  8-2-2011, “The Truth About al Qaeda”,

      The chief lesson of 9/11 should

      AND

      year, even with 9/11 included.

      AT:  Retaliation

      Democracy checks.

      Joseph F. Pilat, Research Assoc. – Int’l Inst. For Strat. Studies, 1999, Survival 40.4, “WMD Terrorism: An Exchange”

      The belief that NBC terrorist acts will have

      AND

      face of such threats tends to be underestimated.

      No serious threat of nuclear terrorism – Al Qaeda is weak, their evidence is based on exaggerated threats by the Bush administration

      Glenn Carle, fmr deputy national intelligence officer for transnational threats and fmr member of CIA’s Clandestine Service, 7-13-2008, “Overstating Our Fears,” Washington Post,

      We do not face a global jihadist "

      AND

      thereby comforting the administration's preconceptions and policy inclinations.

      Elections Adv

      1NC Say No – Everything

      Egyptian groups and the government say no to everything – polling data proves they don’t trust US aid.

      Hannah Allam, Staff writer, 6-29-2011, “Egypt rejection of US aid a sign of future rifts?” McClatchy Washington Bureau, Lexis.

      CAIRO — Seeking to chart a more independent

      AND

      a swipe at the peace treaty with Israel.

       

      MB Radicalization

      MB wont radicalize – the US will maintain ties

      Barbara Slavin, nonresident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council, 7-5-2011, “Keeping up with Mideast changes,” Politico, Lexis.

      Second, on Thursday, Secretary of State

      AND

      . influence with the Middle East's new leaders.

      Increasing democracy assistance causes Egyptian backlash – perceived as favoritism toward secular groups

      Steven Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 3-9-2011, “America Shouldn't Hijack Egypt's Revolution,” Foreign Policy.

      Washington has a long wish list for the

      AND

      " about the Muslim Brotherhood's democratic bona fides.

      That radicalizes the MB causing Egyptian civil war, war with Israel, and Middle East war

      Enver Guseynov, staff writer, 7-10-2011, “Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt,” Suite 101, http://www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984

      Within the organization there exists a moderate current

      AND

      and create additional insecurity in the Middle East.

      Accepting US aid is Faustian bargain

      Joel Brinkley, Staff writer, 4-5-2009, “How 'democracy' got to be a dirty word,” SFGate, http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-04-05/opinion/17193126_1_democracy-promotion-moroccan-king-advance-democracy

      So it may come as a surprise to

      AND

      stench of the Bush strategy for many years.

      Funding secular groups allows the brotherhood to label them as American loyalists – means they lose the election

      Mohamed Abdelbaky, an Egyptian journalist who specializes in democracy and human rights, 8-25-2011, “The Crisis of External Fudning of Egyptian Civil Society,” FIKRA Forum, Mohamed Abdelbaky is an Egyptian journalist who specializes in democracy and human rights

      Domestically, the peril of crisis is that

      AND

      has received, to a much bewildered public.

      Uniqueness and link story for our DA is right – next paragraph of their author agrees the MB is moderate now and the plan makes them radical

      Saikal 11, (Amin Saikal is professor of Political Science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, The growing power of Egypt's Islamists, http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2815630.html)

      These developments can easily be viewed as alarming

      AND

      kinds of outcomes that could fulfil their preferences.

      Transitional government solves Libyan instability

      Rod Nordland, Baghdad Bureau Chief in 2003, 9-3-2011, “Libya’s Interim Leaders Aim to Harness Rebel Fighters,” The New York Times, “http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/world/middleeast/04libya.html?partner=rss&emc=rss”

      RIPOLI, Libya — Libya’s interim government plans

      AND

      armed men and not enough control of them.

       

       

      Transitional government creating stability now – new reintegration programs

      Maria Golovnina and Mohammed Abbas, writers for Reuters, 9-4-2011, “Libyans eye Gadhafi bastions, stability” ttp://www.canada.com/news/Libyans%20Gadhafi%20bastions%20stability/5352408/story.html

      NTC officials announced plans to bring their heavily

      AND

      reintegration schemes for those who fought for Gadhafi.

       

      Moderates control the party now – dialogue with secularists is empowering youths

      Caryle Murphy, staff writer, 3-4-2011, “An upside of Arab revolt: Islamists talk democracy,” CSM, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0304/An-upside-of-Arab-revolts-Islamists-talk-democracy

      Egypt's Tahrir Square revolution is leapfrogging across the

      AND

      know, that Islam is compatible with democracy."

      Moderates will reign in the MB now – they will act pragmatically

      Stratfor, 2-5-2011, “Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood: A Special Report,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110201-egypt-and-muslim-brotherhood-special-report

      But the MB is internally divided. It

      AND

      that it will gradually seek a democratic order.

      Moderates will win out – support for initial revolution

      Charles Levinson, Staff writer, 2-15-2011, “Brothers in Egypt Present Two Faces,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704629004576135882819143872.html

      Both Egyptians and outsiders, however, remain

      AND

      should get a massive bounce out of this."

      Timing

      Michael Allen, Staff writer, 5-18-2011, “Egypt’s democrats want level playing field, not ‘unfair fight’,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/egypts-democrats-want-level-playing-field-not-unfair-fight/

      The pro-democracy activists that led Egypt’s

      AND

      play politics where liberals have absolutely no idea.”

      Organization and popularity

      Efraim Inbar, professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 2-6-2011, “Regional Ramifications of Unrest in Egypt,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives127.html

      The naïve voices in Washington, and elsewhere

      AND

      not rapidly adopt a liberal-democratic ethos.

      Mubarak’s trial has killed all chances of liberal transition – the movements are divided and the military has too much power

      Eric Trager, Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, 8-5-2011, “Why Mubarak's Trial Could Mean the End of Egypt's Youth Revolution,” The Washington Institution for Near East Policy, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1692

      he trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

      AND

      at odds with a still-autocratic reality.

      Low threshold for MB takeover – district based voting system and political incentives to align with the MB

      Eric Trager, PHD candidate, Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-2011, “Egypt's New Political Alliance Could Boost the Islamists,” The Washington institute, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3375

      Continuation of the district-based voting system

      AND

      policy away from U.S. interests.

      MB inevitable

      Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, 5-10-2011, “Egypt: If A Country of 80 Million People Falls And The Media Is Deaf, Does Anyone Hear?” Pajamas Media, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/05/10/egypt-if-a-country-of-80-million-people-falls-and-the-media-is-deaf-does-anyone-hear/

      There are a lot of complaints about the

      AND

      in a way that they will support me.

      Military control of the transition ensures democracy and prevents MB takeover

      Leila Fadel, staff writer, 7-17-2011, “Egypt’s generals may maintain large role in governance,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/egypts-generals-may-maintain-large-role-in-governance/2011/07/14/gIQAlZgxJI_story.html

      CAIRO — The generals running Egypt ahead of

      AND

      role in guaranteeing democratic stability in the country.”

      Assistance overburdens NGOs – collapses them and hurts their image

      Amira Maaty, NED program officer for the Middle East and North Africa, 4-29-2011, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

      With increased attention to Egypt, there will

      AND

      to derail NGOs from their core focus areas.

      Democracy assistance is tainted – substance of the policy is irrelevant

      Richard Lappin, siting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, 2-1-2010, “Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses,” Carnegie Council, http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/ethics_online/0042.html

      Perhaps the principal challenge that the Obama administration

      AND

      only a limited engagement in democracy promotion.5

      Egyptian propaganda has tainted the US brand – neutral DA gets spun as promoting a pecific agenda

      Michael Allen, Staff writer, 8-19-2011, “Egypt’s military doing ‘exactly what Mubarak did’ to stifle democrats,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-military-doing-exactly-what-mubarak-did-to-stifle-democrats/

      The US announced $65 million in assistance

      AND

      climate of vulnerability on the part of activists.

      Impact D

       

      Moussa can still win, even if the MB sweeps elections – MB isn’t even fielding a candidate

      Molly Hennessy-Fiske, 6-23-2011, “Egypt’s would-be president,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/23/world/la-fg-egypt-moussa-20110624

      "He might well be the right man

      AND

      though that could change after the parliamentary balloting.

       

       

      South will just differentiate oil supply routes

      World Tribune, 9-5-2011, “South Sudan seeks alternatives,” World Tribune, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/af_sudan1111_09_05.asp

      The new state of South Sudan has been

      AND

      of interest from companies from the Western world."

       

      China ensures Sudanese stability – outweighs Egypt

      Stuart Wiggin, 7-19-2011, “Sudanese oil tests,” Global Times, http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/666922/Sudanese-oil-tests-Chinese-resolve-for-non-intervention.aspx

      Meanwhile, Zhang Jun, China's economic counselor

      AND

      a more apt term from the Chinese perspective.

       

       

      Lots of alt-causes to the Chinese economy

      UPI, 9-5-2011, “Challenges face Chinese economy,” http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2011/09/05/Zoellick-Challenges-face-Chinese-economy/UPI-75111315201114/

       China's economy will face structural challenges as

      AND

      percent to 8.3 percent in 2012.

       

       

       

       

      (  )  China’s economy is resilient – Asian financial crisis proves

      Steven F. Jackson, Assoc. Prof and Chair Poly Sci @ Indiana U Penn, 2000, Is China Unstable? Ed. hambuagh

      These problems, however, do not necessarily

      AND

      its financial problem before it becomes a crisis.

       

       

      (  )  China isn’t key to the global economy

      AFP, January 27, 2008

          SHANGHAI, Jan 27, 2008 (

      AND

      a pullback in American consumption,” he said.

      No confrontation – military and civilian restraint

      Brad Nelson, PHD, expert on international politics, 6-4-2011, “Egypt's Transition to Democracy: Foreign Policy,” Center for World Conflict and Peace, http://centerforworldconflictandpeace.blogspot.com/2011/06/egypts-transition-to-democracy-foreign_03.html

      But let’s take a deep breath for the

      AND

      foreign relations don’t turn too confrontational with Israel.

       

      Egypt wont undermine peace with Israel – US pressure

      Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, 2-2-2011, “Should we fear the Muslim Brotherhood?” Slate,

      Ultimately, though, American fears about the

      AND

      billions of dollars in much-needed assistance.

       

      Squo Solves

      Aid unnecessary – Egypt is already mobilized – if tyranny is coming, the US can’t solve it

      Anne Mariel Peters, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, 2-14-2011, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt

      The United States should promote democracy in Egypt

      AND

      " will not mean more democracy in Egypt.

      Yes Liberal Democracy – Consensus

      Consensus and strong constitutional roots – overcomes divisions

      Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, 2-15-2011, “Egypt's Constitutional Ghosts,” Carnegie Endowment,

      It might seem that the past century would

      AND

      current constitution are acceptable to most political camps.

      Yes Liberal Democracy – Conditions

      US will condition aid to the military on liberal transition

      Viola Gienger, staff writer, 2-13-2011, “Public praise, private calls keep pentagon connected to Egypt’s Military,” Bloomberg,

      John Negroponte, the first U.S

      AND

      the coming process of political change in Egypt.”

      Solves liberal transition

      David Super, staff writer, 8-23-2011, “Time for the US to use its influence in Egypt,” LA Times,

      Elections have been scheduled, but without a

      AND

      democracy in the heart of the Arab world.

       

      AT:  Warming

      The Sun is responsible for warming – CERN study postdates all your evidence

      IBT (International Business Times), 9-1-2011, “Alarmists Got It Wrong, Humans Not Responsible for Climate Change: CERN”

      Research findings published by none other than CERN

      AND

      of Energy Probe, wrote about the experiment.

      Impact is at least a century away – intervening actors solve

      Robert Mendelsohn, Davis Professor of Forest Policy & Professor of Economics, 2009, “Climate Change and Economic Growth,”

      The heart of the debate about climate change

      AND

      is needed are long-run balanced responses.

      AT:  Oil Shocks

      No impact – oil is only a small part of economies and expanded demand offsets negative effects

      Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and Agustin Roitman, Economist IMF, 8-25-2011, “Oil shocks around the world: are they really that bad?”

      To put these numbers in perspective, it

      AND

      mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag.

      Oil shocks don’t cause war

      Peter van der Windt, Graduate Fellow at Columbia's Center for the Study of Development Strategies, 4-28-2009, Oil Price Shocks and the Onset of Civil War,

      Figure 3 gives the probability for the onset

      AND

      an oil price shock leads to civil war.

      (  )  No wars from econ collapse.

      Morris Miller, Winter 2000, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, “Poverty as a cause of wars?” V. 25, Iss. 4, p pq

      The question may be reformulated. Do wars

      AND

      using one form of violence to abort another).




09/18/11
  • Turkey CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Turkey can solve Egyptian democracy

      Landon Thomas, staff writer, 2-5-2011, “In Turkey’s Example, Some See Map for Egypt,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06turkey.html?_r=2

      As Egypt struggles to reinvent itself, many

      AND

      as perhaps the Middle East’s most influential figure.




10/22/11
  • Egypt FTA CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The United States Federal government should offer a free trade agreement with Egypt with provisions including increased transparency in government procurement and regulation and better investor protection.

      They say yes, avoids ptx, solves growth, democracy and credibility

      Michele Dunne, works for the Carnegie Endowment, July 2011, “Egypt’s Democratic Transition: Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/egypt-s-democratic-transition-five-important-myths-about-economy-and-international-assistance/41ca

      Far-reaching reforms that stimulate private sector

      AND

      including investments in the trade and transport infrastructure.




10/22/11
  • No Increase CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The United States federal government should convert status quo economic aid to Egypt to aid modeled on the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund Act. The United States federal government should not increase democracy assistance to Egypt.

      Their 1AC solvency card says we should convert aid, not increase it

      Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business, 2-28-2011, “A Marshall Plan for the Middle East,” http://glennhubbard.net/commentary-and-op-eds/322-a-marshall-plan-for-the-middle-east.html

      After all, remember the origin of the

      AND

      the aid system to the region as well.




10/22/11
  • T - Indirect Means

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1NC T Indirect Means

      A.     Democracy assistance directly targets preexisting efforts for democracy – indirect means of promoting democracy aren’t T.

      Richard Lappin, siting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, 2010, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance,” CEJISS, Vol. 4. Issue. 1.

      Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

      AND

      precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm .

      Democracy assistance is an active instrument – cant be conditioned

      Daniela Huber, Prof of IR at Hewbrew University in Jerusalem, 2-7-2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” Mediterranean Politics Volume 13, Issue 1, 2008, Muse.

      The American researcher Thomas Carothers gives a definition

      AND

      Table 1 visualizes the different democracy promotion instruments.

       

      B.     Vote Neg

      Limits – allowing forms of assistance whose primary purpose is not democratization means any form of aid is T – this distracts from core questions of political reform and makes neg prep too hard

      Richard Lappin, siting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, 2010, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance,” CEJISS, Vol. 4. Issue. 1.

      Furthermore, as democracy has become increasingly associated

      AND

      post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn .

      Ground – they eliminate most of it – no democracy assistance K, geopolitics das, or political parties das – key to competitive equity – negs need options against new affs and deserve a shot to win against small affs.

      We are the only ones that can establish non-arbitrary limits – only our definition gives Democracy Assistance a precise and clear meaning – allowing casual usage to count is too expansive to be useful

      Richard Lappin, siting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, 2010, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance,” CEJISS, Vol. 4. Issue. 1.

      By the end of the 1990s, the

      AND

      and in practice, will ultimately be undermined .

       




10/22/11
  • Muslim Brotherhood DA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • MB Turn

      ***No MB – Fear

      Fear the American veto means the MB intentionally loses

      Steven Brooke, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin, and Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 2-1-2011, “The Muslim Brotherhood’s Role in the Egyptian Revolution,” CTC at West Point, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-muslim-brotherhood%E2%80%99s-role-in-the-egyptian-revolution

      Any attempt to forecast the behavior of the

      AND

      parliamentary elections after Islamists won—looms large.

      ***No MB – Fear

      Want to assaud fear of their takeover – very concerned about backlash

      Hilary Krieger, staff writer, 2-4-2011, “US to Jewish leaders: We won’t recognize Muslim Brotherhod,” The Jerusalem Post, http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=206712

       “Up until now the Brotherhood has

      AND

      that many question the sincerity of such statements.

       

      ***No MB – Fear

      They will lsoe the election on purpose

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research Brookings Doha Center, 3-8-2011, “The New Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood,” Brookings, http://ziomania.com/articles2011/03/15.htm

      This has made many leftist and liberals nervous

      AND

      . The world is (still) watching.

      ***No MB – Fear

      MB is patient – want to wait for international acceptance

      PBS, 9-14-2011,

      AND

      dec11/egypt_09-14.html

      ESSAM EL ERIAN: We are not going

      AND

      know to be patient when they play politics.

      ***Link – Aid

      Aid causes takeover – their moderation is a disguise that lets them win – their evidence doesn’t account for the MB strategy

      David Bukay, Ph.D. is  at the School of Political Science, the University of Haifa, 2-8-2011, “Misconception or Betrayal? The U.S., Egypt, and Iran,” American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/misconception_or_betrayal_the.html

      The similarities between Iran and Egypt concerning U

      AND

      MB once it is more securely in power.

      ***Link – Aid

      Aid legitimizes MB – boosts power

      Lisa Curtis, senior research fellow at Heritage, 2-9-2011, “Championing Liberty Abroad to Counter Islamist Extremism,” Heritage, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/02/championing-liberty-abroad-to-counter-islamist-extremism#_ftn22

      The U.S. has little to

      AND

      or receives funding from radical foundations.[23]

      Legitimacy further radicalizes them

      Michael Rubin, Senior Lecturerm Naval Postgraduate School, 6-30-2011, “Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood?” AEI, http://blog.american.com/2011/06/engaging-the-muslim-brotherhood/

      Certainly, the Muslim Brotherhood is a player

      AND

      need the United States more than the reverse.

      AT:  Moderation Turn

      They fall victim to a post-Vietnam hippie fantasy – MB really is crazy – US policy cant moderate them

      Jonathan Rynhold, a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a senior lecturer in political science at Bar-Ilan University, 2-7-2011, “US Policy Regarding the Upheaval in Egypt,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives128.html

      This emerging US policy is potentially very dangerous

      AND

      the legitimacy of terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians.

      This is laughable goal – the MB has the same political agenda as Al-Qaeda – they mask their goals through confusing public statements

      Eileen Toplansky, Staff writer, 2-7-2011, “Appeasing the Muslim Brotherhood – Obama’s Rubicon Moment,” The American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/appeasing_the_muslim_brotherho.html

      Signed on September 17, 1978, the

      AND

      place the entire world under an Islamic caliphate."

       

      Moderation only occurs in pre-existing democracies – lack of checks means that the MB will be radical when included

      Chris Keeler, Staff writer, 8-11-2011, “The Islamist/Secular Dichotomy in Egypt,” NFMD, http://notesfromamedinah.com/2011/08/11/the-islamistsecular-dichotomy-in-egypt/

      Daniel Philpott, Timothy Shah, and Monica

      AND

      to resist the moderating effect of political participation.

       

      MB pockets concessions – their radical ideology is inevitable

      Zeyno Baran, Senior Fellow, Center on Islam, Democracy and the Future of the Muslim World, Hudson Institute, 2-26-2009, “Engaging with Muslim Communities around the World,” Committee on Foreign Relations, US Senate, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/BaranTestimony090226p24.pdf

      The prevailing viewthat Islamists should be

      AND

      is a direct threat to the democratic order.

      MB isn’t moderate – intense hatred for the west

      Eric Trager, PHD candidate at U Penn, 5-3-2011, “Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Sticks With Bin Laden,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/egypts-muslim-brotherhood-sticks-with-bin-laden/238218/

      Most of yesterday's headlines proclaiming the death of

      AND

      East -- that of securing Americans from terrorism.

       

      AT:  Moderates Turn – Outbidding

      Lack of alternatives causes leaders to outbid each other – ensures radicalization

      Daniel Brumberg, a special adviser for the U.S. Institute of Peace's Muslim World Initiative, 2-8-2011, “How Would Democracy in Egypt Change the Muslim Brotherhood?” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/02/how-would-democracy-in-egypt-change-the-muslim-brotherhood/70926/

      I am not suggesting that Islamists are,

      AND

      support and establish a clear, credible message.

      Conservative factions sideline moderates

      Charles Levinson, Staff writer, 2-15-2011, “Brothers in Egypt Present Two Faces,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704629004576135882819143872.html

      Israel, which shares a long and porous

      AND

      It's something we're looking at with great caution."

      No moderates – they are weak and aren’t actually moderate

      Eric Trager, PHD Candidate at U Penn, Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Sept/Oct 2011, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood,” Foreign Affairs, Pro Quest.

      These internal tensions have led a number of

      AND

      al Qaeda leader with the honorific "sheik."

       

      AT:  Moderates Turn – fragmentation

      Fragmentation impossible and doesn’t impact the MB

      Eric Trager, Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, 7-6-2011, “Youth Activists Chip Away at Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy,” http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3381

      Although the continued emergence of breakaway candidates and

      AND

      , with minimal local competition from its offshoots.

       

      AT:  Policy Shift

      Their goal is laughable – the US is the evil empire to the Middle East – no amount of aid will change that

      Soumaya Ghannoushi, staff writer, 5-26-2011, “Obama, hands off our spring,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring

      The first wave of Arab revolutions is entering

      AND

      a thin cloak of democracy and human rights.

      ***2NC MB Bad – Pakistan + afghan + terror

      MB takeover collapses Pakistan – causes Afghanistan instability and terrorism.

      Jayshree Bajoria, Staff writer, 2-8-2011, “Will Pakistan Follow Egypt’s Example?” CFR, http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/pakistan-follow-egypts-example/p24038

      Like Egypt, Pakistan is an important strategic

      AND

      give confidence to other Islamists, says Markey.

      Pakistani coup leads to India-Pakistan nuclear war

      Thomas E. Ricks, Staffwriter for The Washington Post, 10-21-2001, “At Pentagon: Worries Over War's Costs, Consequences; Some Fear Regional Destabilization, Retribution Against U.S.,” P. A19

      The prospect of Pakistan being taken over by

      AND

      Sam Gardiner, an expert on strategic games.

      extinction

      Ghulam Nabi Fai, Kashmiri American Council, 7-8-2001, “The Most Dangerous Place,” Washington Times, P. B4

      The foreign policy of the United States in

      AND

      impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.

      Central Asian instability leads to nuclear war

      M. Ehsan Ahrari, Professor of National Security and Strategy of the Joint and Combined Warfighting School at the Armed Forces Staff College, August 2001 , “Jihadi Groups, Nuclear Pakistan and the New Great Game,”

      South and Central Asia constitute a part of

      AND

      , thus representing a gain for all concerned.

      Terrorism escalates to full-scale nuclear conflict

      Patrick Speice, Jr. J.D

      AND

      , February 2006, William & Mary Law Review

      The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of

      AND

      and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

       

      MB Bad – Emboldens Islamists

      MB takeover emboldens other Islamists – causes Middle East Islamist takeover

      Steven Cook, Hasib Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at CFR, August 2009, “Political Instability in Egypt,” CFR, www.i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf  

      In recent years, Egypt’s Islamists have moderated

      AND

      emboldened, jeopardizing the stability of those places.

      MB takeover causes Islamic revolutions

      Cal Thomas, Staff writer, 2-3-2011, “Muslim Brotherhood is the real threat,” La Crosse Tribune, http://lacrossetribune.com/news/opinion/article_b7a5c430-2f10-11e0-82b2-001cc4c002e0.html

      If Egypt falls — immediately, or ultimately

      AND

      , is not just a river in Egypt.

       

       

      MB Bad – Terrorism

      Islamist takeover ensures terrorism

      Daniel Byman, prof of security studies at Georgetown University, June 2011, “Terrorism After the Revolutions: How Secular Uprisings Could Help (or Hurt) Jihadists,” Foreign Affairs. New York: May/Jun 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 3; pg. 48, Pro Quest.

      Despite the challenge that the secular revolutions have

      AND

      any new freedoms to expand their propaganda efforts.

      MB Bad – Terrorism

      Muslim brotherhood takeover causes terrorism

      Gary D. Halbert, Staff writer, 3-1-2011, “Egypt & the Middle East Domino Theory,” Forecasts & Trends, http://www.profutures.com/article.php/731/

      As such, the Muslim Brotherhood is seen

      AND

      that causes others to commit acts of terrorism.”

      **MB Inev – Low Threshold

      Independent candidates will flock to the MB – the MB doesn’t need to have its candidates win to take control

      Khairi Abaza, Staff writer, 6-18-2011, “Egypt's political groups deserve a level playing field,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/18/opinion/la-oe-abaza-egypt-20110618

      The Brotherhood intends to field parliamentary candidates in

      AND

      enjoy more power than its numbers alone suggest.

      ***MB Inev – AT:  Liberal Groups

      Mubarak’s trial has killed all chances of liberal transition – the movements are divided and the military has too much power

      Eric Trager, Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, 8-5-2011, “Why Mubarak's Trial Could Mean the End of Egypt's Youth Revolution,” The Washington Institution for Near East Policy, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1692

      The trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

      AND

      at odds with a still-autocratic reality.

      ***MB Inev – AT:  Liberal Groups

      Secular path is impossible – too attached to Islam

      Efraim Inbar, professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 2-6-2011, “Regional Ramifications of Unrest in Egypt,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives127.html

      The naïve voices in Washington, and elsewhere

      AND

      not rapidly adopt a liberal-democratic ethos.

      2NC Say No – Everything

      Military propaganda worked – no one is willing to accept

      Michael Allen, Staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Egypt’s democracy aid backlash is ‘a strategy to control civil society,’” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-democracy-aid-backlash-a-strategy-to-control-civil-society/

      As Egypt and Tunisia enter a dangerous phase

      AND

      model for the rest of the Arab world.

      No MB Engagement

      No MB engagement – US reluctance and Ikwanaphobia

      Nathan Brown, staff writer, 8-9-2011, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?” The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721?page=1

      But later that day, a State Department

      AND

      . It should be in Egypt as well.

       

       

       




10/22/11
  • Orientalism K

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Democracy assistance is a pretense for ideological and imperialistic domination meant to sanitize the Middle East into a homogenous, pro-Western tool

      Soumaya Ghannoushi, 05-25-2011, researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies, "Obama, hands off our spring," The Guardian UK, www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring

      The US wants to turn the Arab revolutions

      AND

      preach democracy, while occupying and aiding occupation.

      The impact is violent exclusion of the Oriental Other through war and genocide

      Pinar Batur, Vassar sociology prof, 2007, “The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, pp. 446-7

      At the turn of the 20th century,

      AND

      century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

       

      Reject the aff – breaks donw imperial power.

      Stephan Sheehi, Associate Prof & Arabic Program Director at University of South Carolina, 05-01-2011, “The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of The Academic,” Jadaliyya,

      These revolutions were one more method of stripping

      AND

      who can serve change both home and abroad.




10/22/11
  • Saudi Relations DA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • US-Saudi relations are stabilizing – democracy focused approach tanks the rapprochement

      Gregory Gause, III, prof of polis ci at U Vermont, 4-5-2011, “Why is the Story Different in Saudi Arabia?” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, http://www.susris.com/2011/04/05/why-is-the-story-different-in-saudi-arabia-gause-interview/

      In the end geopolitics pushes Washington and Riyadh

      AND

      for a very, very difficult bilateral relationship.

      US intervention into Libya pisses of Saudi Arabia – sets a dangerous precedent

      Jon Alterman, Director and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, CSIS, 3-17-2011, “What Can Arab Leaders Do About Libya?” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/03/16/what-can-arab-leaders-do-about-libya/arab-leaders-put-themselves-first

      Even more importantly, Arab leaders are cautious

      AND

      while hoping that Qaddafi gets his just desserts.

      Loss in credibility of US security commitment causes Saudi prolif

      Laura Rozen, staff writer, 4-18-2011, “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance,” Yahoo, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance.

      Something of a chill has settled over Washington's

      AND

      of the bill" for Pakistan's nuclear program.

      Causes rapid prolif and multiple nuclear wars

      Eric Edelman, distinguished fellow at the center for strategic and budgetary assessments, was an undersecretary of Defense, 12-27-2010, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran,” CSBA, http://www.csbaonline.org/2010/12/27/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran/3/

      Developing nuclear weapons remains a slow, expensive

      AND

      a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.




10/22/11
  • Framework

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • FW

      1NC Definitions

      1.  The topic is defined by the phrase following the colon – the USFG is the agent of the resolution, not the individual debaters

      Webster’s Guide to Grammar and Writing, 2000,

      Use of a colon before a list or

      AND

      clause after the colon with a capital letter.

       

      Resolved implies a policy

      Louisiana House 3-8-2005, http://house.louisiana.gov/house-glossary.htm

      Resolution  A legislative instrument that generally is used

      AND

      6.8 , and 7.4)

      3.  “Should” denotes an expectation of enacting a plan

      American Heritage Dictionary 2000,

      3 Used to express probability or expectation

       

      4.  “The USFG” is the government in Washington D.C.

      Microsoft Encarta Online Encyclopedia 2000, http://encarta.msn.com

      The federal government of the United States is centered in Washington DC.”

      Democracy assistance is the transfer of funds, expertise and material to foster democracy

      Richard Lappin, siting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, 2010, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance,” CEJISS, Vol. 4. Issue. 1.

      Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

      AND

      society groups, media groups and political parties .

      Vote neg

       

      A.     Predictable Limits – infinite number of potential frameworks based on how we as individuals should relate to a phrase – defense of a predictable mechanism is a prerequisite for academic engagement, truth testing, and consensus building.

      B.      Extra T – ballot can only be a vote for or against the resolution – questions of the impact of the ballot should be irrelevant – lacks a stable basis for negs to generate offense.

      C.      Policy relevance is good

      Joseph Nye, professor at Harvard University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, 4-13-2009, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-09

      President Obama has appointed some distinguished academic economists

      AND

      seem to be headed in the opposite direction. 




10/22/11
  • Truth and Reconciliation Neg

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Truth and Reconciliation

      CP

      Domestic TRC can solve

      Leahy, 9

      Patrick Leahy, Senator (VT), 2/12/2009, A Truth Commission to Investigate Bush-Cheney Administration Abuses, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sen-patrick-leahy/a-truth-commission-to-inv_b_166461.html

      We have just emerged from a time when White House officials  AND  so we do not repeat them in the future.



       

      Giraldi says we should have a TRC here and the CP is sufficient to set a precedent

      Giraldi ‘9

      (Philip, Executive Director of the Council

      AND

      /13/truth-and-reconciliation/)

      Circumstances in the United States and its "

      AND

      ordered by the president of the United States.

      Creates forgiveness – solves the revenge impact

      Duveen, 8

      Peter Duveen, 11/19/2008, Author calls for formation of truth and reconciliation commission to heal wounds of 9-11 , http://www.petersnewyork.com/griffin.html

      One of the major critics of the U

      AND

      eventually revealed the scope and character of abuses.

       

      Truth and Reconciliation Case

      Only locally initiated TRCs solve – can’t be imposed

      Hayner, 6

      Priscilla B. Hayner, Director, International Policymakers Unit, at the International Center for Transitional Justice in New York, June 2006, Truth commissions: a schematic overview, www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/other/irrc_862_hayner.pdf

      The attached chart provides a summary of the attributes AND inclusive of a wide range of perspectives.

      the risk of failure is high – turns the whole case

      Hayner 1

      Priscilla B. Hayner, Director, International

      AND

      and atrocity, google books, p. 202

      Yet even where there is no expressed interest

      AND

      this danger is should be treated with respect.

      Libya doesn’t want truth and reconciliation – even the moderates expect punitive action, not a TRC. They’ll say no, and it proves the plan’s “aid” is a Western imposition

      Ian Black, 9-30-2011, “Libyans seek justice,” Feb 17th, Libyan Youth Movement http://feb17.info/news/libyans-seek-justice-but-who-goes-and-who-stays/

      And the Libyan version, which is “

      AND

      satisfied – and the opportunists will be scared.”

      TRCs don’t cause reconciliation

      Wilson, 3

      Richard Ashby Wilson, reader in social anthropology at the University of Sussex. He is the author of The Politics of Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa, 2003, Justice and Retribution in Postconflict Settings, Public Culture 15.1 (2003) 187-190, Project Muse

      For these reasons, reconciliation has AND including hatred for their former enemy.

      International involvement turns the case

      Zwanenburg, 3

      Marten Zwanenburg, Netherlands Dept. of Defense

      AND

      volumes/2003/zwanenburg-2003.pdf

      Unspeakable Truths addresses several elements of the relationship

      AND

      is desirable and what form it should take.

      Can’t remedy US approach to violence in the future – their author agrees Libya is a symptom, not a cause

      Barry 11 (Kathleen Barry, Prof in department of sociology at Berkely, Professor Emerita of the Pennsylvania State University, Libyan Liberation – Is there Another Way?, http://dailycensored.com/2011/03/31/libyan-liberation-%E2%80%93-is-there-another-way/,

      With its call for regime change ………..insures its ongoing crimes against humanity.

      The real issue encircling the question of whether the US should be at war with Libya is “if not the US, then who?”  Necessary humanitarian intervention in Libya including establishing a no-fly zone without massive bombing would only be genuinely possible if they could be provided by a neutral party whose directive is to save lives and protect human rights.   But as long as the U.S. holds undisputed military power over the world, the next time humanitarian intervention is required, the next massacres or ethnic cleansing the problem will be the same.

       

      Solvency requires a global hippie Utopia and rethinking of patriarchy, the aff is wildly insufficient – their author

      Barry 11 (Kathleen Barry, Prof in department of sociology at Berkely, Professor Emerita of the Pennsylvania State University, Libyan Liberation – Is there Another Way?, http://dailycensored.com/2011/03/31/libyan-liberation-%E2%80%93-is-there-another-way/,

      In Unmaking War, Remaking Men I propose

      AND

      scrutiny and insures its ongoing crimes against humanity.

       




10/22/11
  • AT: Aid Now

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • AT Aid Now

      Even if they say aid now – no evidence aid will pass now

      Obama reversed his position – he isn’t leading – wont push more aid to Egypt

      Yochi Dreazen, staff writer, 9-7-2011, “State department will name Taylor to lead aid efforts in Libya and Egypt,” National Journal, http://www.nationaljournal.com/state-department-will-name-taylor-to-lead-aid-efforts-in-libya-and-egypt-20110907

      The State Department will formally create a new

      AND

      of the planned American aid has been spent.

       

      House is cutting aid and placing restrictions on Egyptian assistance now.

      Jill Dougherty, CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent, 7-27-2011, “Clinton pushes back on proposed bill to curb State Dept. operations” CNN, Lexis

      In a letter to Rep. Ileana Ros

      AND

      and Yemen, and to the Palestinian Authority."

      Conditions mean no aid for a while

      David Arnold, staff writer, 8-8-2011, “US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question,” VOA News, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html

      When lawmakers in the U.S

      AND

      federal budget, international assistance is a target.”

      Past aid was done after the revolt – created unique political space

      David Arnold, staff writer, 8-16-2011, “Foreign Aid Stirs Debate Amid Egypt’s Democratic Hopes,” VOA News, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Foreign-Aid-Stirs-Debate-Amid-Egypts-Democratic-Hopes-127824353.html

      The recent round of pro-democracy funding

      AND

      brought down long-time President Hosni Mubarak.

       

      There’s no money – aid wont get through

      Egypt Today, 7-10-2011, “Fertilizing the Grassroots,” http://wwww.egypttoday.com/news/display/article/artId:278

      Even with the ouster of Mubarak, it

      AND

      US is committing substantial resources to this project.”

       

      House is cutting aid and placing restrictions on Egyptian assistance now.

      Jill Dougherty, CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent, 7-27-2011, “Clinton pushes back on proposed bill to curb State Dept. operations” CNN, Lexis

      In a letter to Rep. Ileana Ros

      AND

      and Yemen, and to the Palestinian Authority."

       




10/22/11
  • Pressure CP

    • Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: Mich DP | Judge:

    • JThe United States federal government should communicate to the government of Bahrain that the United States will remove the Fifth Fleet base from and end arms sales to Bahrain unless the government agrees to the prompt release of jailed opposition leaders and a genuinely inclusive dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform

       

      Pressuring Bahrain solves – encourages reforms and reestablishes US cred

      Joost R. Hiltermann, Dep. Dir. MENA @ Int’l Crisis Group, 9-7-2011, “Pushing for Reform in Bahrain,” ICG, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain/hiltermann-pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain.aspx

      How Washington should now proceed is an open question..., and the opposition to show the way.

      CP solves the credibility advantage better – plan is insufficient

      Marina Ottaway, 4-4-2011, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” Carnegie, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43416#

      But U.S. concerns in dealing

      AND

      of its conflicting interests it wants to protect.

      Pressure solves their credibility advantage – reverses US hypocrisy

      Karen Lickteig, ME Studies @ PSU, August 2011, “The U.S. Must Get Tough on Bahrain,” http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1306

      America has found itself in a tough position

      AND

      country that loses legitimacy on the world stage.

      Cutting off arms sales to Bahrain solves US cred and regional stability

      Brian Dooley, dir. Human Rights First, 10-3-2011, “Time to stop arms sales to Bahrain,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/185233--time-to-stop-arms-sales-to-bahrain

      Despite President Obama’s assurance to people in the

      AND

      wholesale reform, and American missiles won’t help.

       

      Doesn’t link to politics – conditioned security aid isn’t controversial

      David Francis, 3-16-2011, “Foreign Aid Dilemma: Dictators on our Dole,” Fiscal Times, Fhttp://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/03/16/Foreign-Aid-Dilemma-Dictators-on-our-Dole.aspx#page1

      As violence rages in Libya and antigovernment protests

      AND

      governments to adopt reforms in this explosive region.

      Conditioning military support on human rights isn’t controversial

      Admiral James G. Stavridis, 2010, “Partnership for the Americas,” NDU Press, http://www.ndu.edu/press/stavridis-ch5.html

      To help further develop this still-nascent

      AND

      U.S. Embassy in that country.

      Empirically not controversial – congress prefers human rights conditions on aid

      Center For Public Integrity, 2008, “Narcotics and Economics Drive U.S. Policy in Latin America,” CPI, http://projects.publicintegrity.org/report.aspx?aid=254

      A bipartisan group of House legislators sponsored a

      AND

      had requested—in aid to Colombia's neighbors.

       

      Conditioning military aid to Bahrain has support in Congress – it’s enforcing existing law and they’re scared of selling arms given instability

      Adam Entous, 2-23-2011, “U.S. Reviews Arms Sales Amid Turmoil,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704071304576160790785180556.html

      "We are reviewing all assistance given events

      AND

      likely want to take a more cautious approach.

       

      Hamad will never give up control without pressure – US pressure is limited

      Daily Bhaskar, 2-19-2011, “Alarmed by Bahrain violence,” http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/WOR-TOP-alarmed-by-bahrain-violence-us-appeals-to-government-1865313.html

      Obama's response may be colored by the US

      AND

      at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

       

      CP solves stability – Bahrain will say yes and not kick out the Fleet – US has lots of leverage

      Joshua Colangelo-Bryan, 4-11-2011, “Back human rights in Bahrain,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52885.html

      The Obama administration must do all it can

      AND

      tiny island with a strategically important military base.

       

      CP solves without 5th fleet kickout – they’re just bluffing

      Ali Al-Ahmed, Dir. IGA, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, May 2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” Inst. For Gulf Affairs, Policy Brief, http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

      It is important that the United States begin

      AND

      has obstructed efforts to compel real political reform.




10/29/11
  • Payroll Tax Cuts

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1NC PTC DA

      Will pass

      David Espo, staff writer, 10-19-2011, “Yes, parts of the jobs bill will pass,” CBS News, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/19/opinion/main20122726.shtml

      (AP)  WASHINGTON -- Congress will almost

      AND

      would pay the entire cost of the measure.

      Plan costs PC

      Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Doha Center, 1-27-2011, “Tunisia, Egypt, Arab world need bold US support for democracy, not mixed messages,” Jewish World Review, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0111/middle_east_democracy.php3

      These actions have a clear intent — to

      AND

      Oddly, they've become more difficult to find.

      PC key – key to the econ

      Philadelphia Inquirer, 9-8-2011, “Don’t expect miracles on job growth,” http://articles.philly.com/2011-09-08/news/30130709_1_jobs-plan-american-economy-rare-tax

      The fundamental problem in the American economy is

      AND

      made a major effort to privatize Social Security.

      Avoids double dip – top of the docket and Obama is pushing

      Lisa Mascaro and Christi Parsons, 10-12-2011, “Senate blocks Obama jobs plan,” LA Times, ln

      Sen. Charles E. Schumer of New

      AND

      be the first provision to come before Congress.

      PTC key to Obama in 2012

      David Moberg, staff writer, 10-24-2011, “Will Obama’s Job Plan Save His?” In These Times, http://inthesetimes.com/article/12163/will_obamas_job_plan_save_his

      Even if Obama’s new jobs bill, which

      AND

      points, a small but not insignificant edge.

      Key to Russian relations

      Volkhonsky Boris, staff writer, 10-13-2011, “Will new ambassador follow the reset?” The Voice of Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/13/58671990.html

      On the whole, McFaul’s address to the

      AND

      for a different line as of January 2013.

      Relations solve multiple world problems – each causes extinction

      Jeffrey Tayler, 08 -The Atlantic staff writer, “Medvedev Spoils the Party,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/11/medvedev-spoils-the-party/7130/

       Like it or not, the United

      AND

      to face a volatile future arm in arm.

       

      US Econ Key

      No decoupling – US key to global demand and US protectionism kills the global economy

      Desmond Lachman, resident fellow at AEI, 11-1-2007, “The Global Economic Decoupling Myth,” AEI, http://www.aei.org/article/27052

      Not so long ago, the conventional wisdom

      AND

      simply the U.S., economic recovery.

      No impact – oil is only a small part of economies and expanded demand offsets negative effects

      Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and Agustin Roitman, Economist IMF, 8-25-2011, “Oil shocks around the world: are they really that bad?” http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6905

      To put these numbers in perspective, it

      AND

      mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag.

       

       

      2NC Yes PTC

      Epso says will pass – drawing little GOP opposition – isolating from the rest of the jobs bill gets it through.

      Obama pushes – GOP backs off

      Erica Werner, staff writer, 10-26-2011, “For Obama, new focus on the piecemeal,” AP, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jBBAuCkwwz36b0l5ZSe63veDz47Q?docId=c480f4a9b7634e9f8e0fd60ddd74c5ef

      Congress has shown only rare signs of late

      AND

      got to try to do everything he can."

      New strategy – can bully the congress into action.

      Kai Wright, staff writer, 10-14-2011, “Is President Obama’s Jobs Drumbeat Working?”ColorLines, http://colorlines.com/archives/2011/10/is_president_obamas_jobs_drumbeat_working.html

      Josh Marshall over at Talking Points Memo raises

      AND

      might be at a turning point in Washington.

       

      Yes PTC – AT:  House

      GOP house members signaled support

      Jennifer Bendery, staff writer, 10-11-2011, “White House Plots Strategy For Passing Obama's Jobs Bill In Pieces,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/11/obama-jobs-bill_n_1005486.html?ref=mostpopular

      "We'll be working with the Senate to

      AND

      to education and training funds for unemployed veterans.

       

      2NC Yes PC

      Latest strategy proves hes building PC

      Richard Wolf, staff writer, 10-27-2011, “Obama uses executive powers to get past Congress,” USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2011-10-26/obama-executive-orders/50942170/1

      "It's the executive branch flexing its muscles

      AND

      to see the administration pick up the pace."

       

      Politics Link – Mediation

      Mediation alone costs capital – even small amounts of spending spur backlash

      Micah Zenko, fellow @ CFR, and Rebecca R. Friedman, research associate, 2-16-2011, “A soft power bargain,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/16/opinion/la-oe-zenko-fgn-aid-20110216

      The State Department and USAID have an unparalleled

      AND

      S. global influence. That's no bargain.

      Mediating and supporting constitutional development costs money

      William P. Alford, Law Prof @ Harvard, 2000, “Exporting “The Pursuit of Happiness”,” 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677, ln

      Within the four nations that Carothers highlights,

      AND

      of the judiciary itself (p. 174).

       

      Mediation empirically costs capital

      Andre de Nesnera, 2-8-2011, “Will Egypt Unrest Undermine Middle East Peace Process?” VOA, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Will-Egypt-Unrest-Undermine-Middle-East-Peace-Process-115579834.html

      Just days after being inaugurated president of the

      AND

      Bank and East Jerusalem - even partial settlements."

       

      US diplomacy costs capital – forces Obama to horsetrade

      Rachael Bade and Anna Gawel, 11-18-2010, “America’s Foreign Affairs Budget,” Washington Diplomat, http://washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7203:americas-foreign-affairs-budget-faces-congressional-chopping-block&catid=1088:march-2011&Itemid=469

      The debate over diplomacy and development though is

      AND

      the budget proposals are ultimately embraced or rejected.

       

       

      AT:  Non-Jobs Thumpers

      Obama is only pushing Jobs legislation – wont get dragged into anything else

      Darlene Superville, staff writer, 10-12-2011, “Obama Jobs Bill: After Senate Defeat, President Says 'We Will Not Take No For An Answer',” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/obama-jobs-bill-senate-vote_n_1007260.html

      A day after Senate Republicans blocked action on

      AND

      White House recognizing Latino contributions to American history.

       

      PTC = TOD

      PTC coming up soon

      Rosalind Helderman, staff writer, 10-21-2011, “Next up for Obama jobs bill votes: spending on roads, bridges,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/next-up-for-obama-jobs-bill-votes-spending-on-roads-bridges/2011/10/21/gIQAFi5r3L_blog.html

      Obama has asked his Democratic allies in the

      AND

      and an extension of a payroll tax holiday.

      Top priority for Obama – will push it first

      Lisa Mascaro, staff writer, 10-11-2011, “Democrats plan next step for Obama's jobs package,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/11/nation/la-na-senate-jobs-20111012

      When Obama travels to Michigan on Friday,

      AND

      be the first provision to come before Congress.

      AT:  Solyndra – Most Recent

      Solyndra won’t hurt Obama – he’s Teflon for scandals

      Jonathan Alter, 10-28-2011, “The Obama Miracle, a White House Free of Scandal,” SF Chronicle, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/10/28/bloomberg_articlesLTQZU10D9L35.DTL

      President Barack Obama goes into the 2012 with

      AND

      taking the air out of any possible uproar.

      Independent Solyndra review clears the air – will ultimately boost Obama

      Scott Wilson, 10-28-2011, “White House orders review,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-orders-independent-review-of-energy-department-loans/2011/10/28/gIQASsrPQM_story.html

      The White House has authorized an independent review

      AND

      that the overall initiative has been a success.

       

       

      AT:  Dickinson

      Dickinson is only talking about supreme court nominations not congressional legislation

      DICKINSON CONCLUDES NEG – prefer this evidence because its from a peer reviewed journal and isn’t just a random blog post.

      Dickinson, yes the same damn one, 2009 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

      Small wonder, then, that initial efforts

      AND

      vote (Beckmann 2008, n.d.).   

       

      PC Key

      Presidential leadership shapes the agenda

      Robert Kuttner, Senior Fellow at Demos, Co-Founder of the American Prospect, and Co-Editor of the American Prospect, 5-10-2011, “Barack Obama’s Theory of Power” http://prospect.org/article/barack-obamas-theory-power

      As the political scientist Richard Neustadt observed in

      AND

      signals leadership that often moves the public agenda.

       

      2NC AT:  Winners Win

      Fights bleed momentum – they don’t generate capital

      John Harris and Carol Lee, Staff writers for Politico, 1-20-2010, Obama’s first year, Politico, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4DF829C9-18FE-70B2-A8381A971FA3FFC9

      Obama believed that early success would be self

      AND

      legislative battle on Capitol Hill over health care.

      Link outweighs turn – Harder to rebuild capital than lose it

      Marrissa Silber, prof of poli sci, samford, 8-30-2007, “What makes a president quack?” Prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.

      Important to the discussion of political capital is

      AND

      of a lame duck  President must be developed. 

      Obama thinks that pol cap is finite – he’ll back off controversial issues even if he’s winning

      Robert Kuttner, co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos, author of "Obama's Challenge: America's Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency, “Obama Has Amassed Enormous Political Capital, But He Doesn't Know What to Do with It,” 4-28-2009, http://www.alternet.org/economy/138641/obama_has_amassed_enormous_political_capital,_but_he_doesn%27t_know_what_to_do_with_it/?page=entire

      We got a small taste of what a

      AND

      but he defaults to the politics of accommodation.

       

      AT:  Infrastructure Thumper

      Failure of Infrastructure part of the plan – won’t invest PC

      Rosalind Helderman, staff writer, 10-21-2011, “Next up for Obama jobs bill votes: spending on roads, bridges,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/next-up-for-obama-jobs-bill-votes-spending-on-roads-bridges/2011/10/21/gIQAFi5r3L_blog.html

      Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid speaks during a

      AND

      plan they know do not have bipartisan support.

       

       

      No Aid – Generic

      No new aid

      Michele Dunne, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council, 10-28-2011, “Assessing Political Transitions in the Mideast,” CFR, http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/assessing-political-transitions-mideast/p26330

      I advocate negotiating free-trade agreements with

      AND

      to trade with each other--intraregional trade.

      The Senate cut billions in foreign aid

      The Nation, 10-25-2011, “Road to Libyan democracy may be a rocky one,” http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Road-to-Libyan-democracy-may-be-a-rocky-one-30168413.html

      Nevertheless, in the case of Libya,

      AND

      per cent of the entire foreign aid budget.

       

      No aid to Arab spring – house resistance

      Mary Beth Sheridan, staff writer, 9-24-2011, “Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries,” The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_singlePage.html

      In his U.N. speech this

      AND

      response to the revolutions has been too tepid.

       

      AT:  Bahrain Aid Now

      US reversed position on Bahrain

      Marina Ottaway, analyst for the Carnegie Endowment, 4-4-2011, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” Carnegie Endowment, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states-and-saudi-arabia/t8#

      Initially, Washington opted to push for reform

      AND

      with Saudi Arabia should take precedence right now.

      2NC AT:  Redirection

      Executive overreach – redirection requires congressional action and causes contentious debates.

      Theo Emory, staff writer, 8-23-2011, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya,” Boston Globe, http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html

      WASHINGTON – After protests erupted in Libya early

      AND

      they come through and deliver on the promises.”

      At obmaa

      Obama’s overall foreign policy doctrine swamps the plan.

      John R. Bolton, is a senior fellow at AEI, September 6, 2011. “The Innocents Abroad: Obama's Foreign Policy Is Characterized,” http://www.aei.org/article/104083

      Barack Obama's badly flawed worldview and the incoherent

      AND

      religious faith in negotiation for its own sake.




10/29/11
  • Bahrain Case Cards

    • Tournament: Harvard | Round: 3 | Opponent: Mich DP | Judge:

    • Case

      5th fleet

      No Solvency – General

      Nothing the US can do to spark dialogue in Bahrain

      Emile Hokayem, Bahrain-based Middle East analyst for Int’l Inst. For Stat. Studies, 10-19-2011, “U.S. Has Few Options to Curb Crackdown in Bahrain,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/us-has-options-to-curb-crackdown-in-bahrain-an-ally/246942/

      At this time, however, direct U

      AND

      includes the anxious and often overlooked Sunni community.

      Saudi Takes Out Solvency

      Saudi Arabia will screw up the plan, even if Bahrain says yes – US isn’t key

      Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, 6-19-2011, “Bahrain: Can the U.S. Do Anything?” American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html

      But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia

      AND

      the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

       

      Bahrain Says No

      Bahrain says no to US calls for reform – empirics

      Salman Shaikh, Dir. @ Brookings, POMEPS, 8-9-2011, “The Saudi Counter-Revolution,” Project of Middle East Politics Science @ GWU, http://www.pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/POMEPS_BriefBooklet5_SaudiArabia_web.pdf

      The situation in Bahrain may well be providing

      AND

      Bahrain’s affairs . We really are in unchartered territory

       

      No Kick Out

      No risk of fifth fleet loss

      M K Bhadrakumar, political analyst, 5-24-2011, “Decoding Obama’s Bahrain puzzle,” Asia Times, http://theglobalrealm.com/2011/05/31/decoding-obamas-bahrain-puzzle/

      The US sees the alchemy of Shi’ite empowerment

      AND

      -sharing rather than a capture of power.

       

      AT: Iran Adventurism

      No Iranian adventurism

      Jahangir Amuzegar, former pre-revolutionary Iranian Finance Minister and Economic Ambassador, Summer 2006, “Nuclear Iran: Perils and Prospects,” Middle East Policy, v. 13, iss. 2, pq

      Questioning the validity of objections to a nuclear

      AND

      habit of always looking for the best deal.

       

      AT:  Iran Heg – Low Now

      Iran heg down – Egypt

      Masoud Shafaee, Middle East analyst for World Politics Review, 8-5-2011, “For Iran, Setbacks Outweigh Gains in Arab Spring,” WPR, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9695/for-iran-setbacks-outweigh-gains-in-arab-spring

      But for all the fleeting windfalls that the

      AND

      a role that would come at Iran's expense.

       

      Radicalization

      AT: Iran Fill-in – Bahrain Wont Turn

      Protesters won’t get Iran involved – distinct demands

      Babak Rahimi, Ph.D from European University Institute and Assistant Professor at the University of California San Diego in Religion, 3-8-2011, “Special Commentary: Iran and the Bahraini Uprising,” Jamestown Foundation, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37611

      In reality, however, the role of

      AND

      the formation of an Iranian-style theocracy.

       

      Radicalization

      Protests aren’t sectarian – no risk of Shi’a radicalization

      Hamid Dabashi, professor of Iranian Studies at Columbia, 3-2-2011, “It's not a Shiite-Sunni divide,” CNN, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-03-02/opinion/dabashi.islamic.sectarianism_1_sunni-shiite-shiite-sunni-shiite-crescent/2?_s=PM:OPINION

      This fear of a "Shiite crescent"

      AND

      to their constituent factors nor fixed and stagnant.

      No Impact – Saudi-Iran War

      No Saudi-Iran war

      Alexander Vatutin, political analyst, 10-10-2011, “Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions posing threat to global oil market,” Voice of Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/10/58461134.html

      Trying to predict the consequences of confrontation between

      AND

      it will have to deal with the alliance."

      1NC AT:  Oil Shocks

      No impact to oil shocks – they have minimal effects, the economy is resilient

      Philip Auerswald, assistant professor and director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University, June 2007, “The Irrelevance of the Middle East,” The American Interest, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=269

      Finally, what of the oft-mentioned

      AND

      , the observed macroeconomic impact has been negligible.

      Credibility

      1NC AT:  Credibility

      Single instances do not change international perceptions

      Christopher Fettweis, professor of political science at Tulane, Credibility and the War on Terror, Winter 2008, Political Science Quarterly, Ingenta.

      There is actually scant evidence that other states

      AND

      when it was, it almost inevitably failed.

      Obama is allergic to soft power – won’t use it even if he has it

      Mark Lagon, staff writer, 10-18-2011, “Soft Power Under Obama,” ISN, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=133416&contextid734=133416&contextid735=133415&tabid=133415&dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233

       One irony of the Obama presidency is

      AND

      support for popular forces casting aside other ones.

      No short-term decline --- no challengers and soft power is too resilient

      Joseph Nye, Soft Power Expert and Distinguished Prof @ Harvard, Nov/Dec 2010, “The Future of American Power,” Foreign Affairs, Ebsco

      Any net assessment of American power in the

      AND

      networks with it that provide opportunities for cooperation.

      Aid cuts tank US credibility

      Susan Cornwell, staff writer, 8-7-2011, “Obama's "smart power" plan risks death of 1,000 cuts,” News Daily, http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre78613g-us-usa-budget-power/

      WASHINGTON, Sep. 7, 2011 (

      AND

      devastating impact on the work that we do."

      AT:  Cyber Terrorism – Motives

      (  )  Terrorists won’t use cyber-tactics.

      James A. Lewis, Director and Senior Fellow, Technology and Public Policy Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ), December 2002, “Assessing the Risks of Cyber Terrorism, Cyber War and Other Cyber Threats,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/021101_risks_of_cyberterror.pdf

      Terrorists seek to make a political statement and

      AND

      whose effects are at best gradual and cumulative?

      Air gapped

      Gabriel Weimann, senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace and professor of communication at the University of Haifa, Israel, Cyberterrorism: How Real Is the Threat?, December 2004

      It seems fair to say that the current

      AND

      concern been expressed over a relatively minor threat?

      Terrorists are rational – no motivation for causing full scale nuclear launch

      Robin M. Frost, December 2005, “Terrorist psychology, motivation and strategy,” Adelphi Papers, v. 45, Iss. 378, informa

      If terrorists are not irrational psychotic or psychopathic

      AND

      mass-casualty terror in the first place.

       

      AT:  Cyber War

      The risk is exaggerated – misleading data, decentralization, and general deterrence.

      Joe Windish, Staff writer for the Moderate Voice, 10-27-2010, “The exaggerated Cyber-War Threat,” http://themoderatevoice.com/90070/the-exaggerated-cyber-war-threat/

      Seymour Hersh wonders, should we be worried

      AND

      a deterrent against the use of cyber weapons.

      No Cyber war

      Ronald Bailey, science correspondent, 1-18-2011, “Cyberwar is Harder than it Looks,” Reason, http://reason.com/archives/2011/01/18/cyberwar-is-harder-than-it

      A new report, Reducing Systemic Cybersecurity Risk

      AND

      into the facilities with an infected USB drive.

      2NC AT:  Credibility – Single Instances

      Fettweis says single policies can’t change international perceptions – groups interpret US actions as situational and don’t form lasting impressions.

      Prefer our evidence – fettweis is a poli sci prof citing both the most advanced and academically accepted models – policymakers love trumping up the importance of single events but it has no effect on overall US reputation.

      Negative perceptions are resilient

      Ted Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 2-11-2011, “What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little,” CATO, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780

      The situation in the Middle East is vastly

      AND

      as much too littlemuch too late.

      Statistical models proves aid doesn’t expand credibility

      Ken Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and arms control director in the Reagan Ronald's administration, 4-18-2011, “No-So-Smart Power,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/18/not_so_smart_power?page=0,2

      Joseph Nye is as gifted at branding as

      AND

      engenders resentment, downing out any lingering gratitude.

      Rising expectations – US can’t meet them – kills credibility

      Steven Cook, Senior fellow at CFR for Middle Eastern Studies, 5-18-2011, “President Obama’s High Risk, High Reward Speech,” CFR, http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/president-obamas-high-risk-high-reward-speech/p25032

      Of far more concern is the likelihood that

      AND

      and constraints that result in charges of hypocrisy.

       

      2NC AT:  Credibility – Obama Blocks

      Lagon says Obama is allergic to soft power – will maintain realpolitik approach even if they boost credibility – means that credibility isn’t used effectively and gets hollowed out quickly by new unilateralist policies.

      Low risk and no impact of cyber war

      Times of India, 1-28-2011, “Risks of cyber war exaggerated’: Study,” http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/enterprise-it/security/Risks-of-cyber-war-exaggerated-Study/articleshow/7312651.cms

       LONDON: A study has said that

      AND

      of such an attack could limit its effectiveness.

      No incentive for massive cyber war

      Evgeny Morozov, Staff writer for the Boston Review, July/August 2009, “Cyber-Scare,” http://bostonreview.net/BR34.4/morozov.php

      Putting these complexities aside and focusing just on

      AND

      more pertinent threats in a more rational manner.

       

       




10/29/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • aNeg: Whitman HZ
      Round # 8 Tournament: Shirley
      Vs Team: Samford BL
      Judge: Brett Bricker

       

       

      Off Case Args:

      EU CP

      Multilateralism  CP

      Asian summit politics DA

      JV Russia WTO Da

                  -Russia, Georgia, Us relations

       

       

      Case Args:

      Yemen says no

      Beating terrorism now

      Impact D

       

       

      Block Strategy:

      2NC: EU CP, case (new offense nanotech solve bioD,)

      1NR: JV Russia WTO deal DA (new overview impacts: heg, terror, bioD, Iran aggression, North Koran war) answered thumpers and winners in on Asia DA

       

      2nr Strategy:

      JV Russia WTO Da

      Case 

      Neg: Whitman HZ
      Round #  5 Tournament:
      Vs Team: Gonzaga KM
      Judge: Adam Symonds

       

       

      Off Case Args:

      T material Transfer

      Summit Politics - Heg

      Spending DA – heg

      UN multilat counterplan

      End Counter terrorism in Yemen CP

       

       

      Case Args:

      Case Defense

      Yemen says no -- backlash

       

      Block Strategy:

      2NC – Answer offense on spending, Case

      1NR – summit da

       

      2nr Strategy:

      Summit DA and Case

       

      Neg: Whitman WZ
      Round # 3 Tournament: Shirley
      Vs Team: Cal HP
      Judge: Tim Barouch

       

       

      Off Case Args:

      Asian Focus DA

      T – Increase

      Framework

      Spending DA

      Offsets CP

      DA

       

      Case Args:

      Say no, don’t remove restrictions on terrorism, they romanticize Islam, multiple alt causes Islamophobia, consequences matter, theory doesn’t cause change

       

      Block Strategy:

      2NC: T, budget cuts cause fights on spending, CP, case/consequences

      1NR: Focus DA

       

      2nr Strategy:

      Focus DA, case defense, consequences




11/11/11
  • APEC Summit

    • Tournament: Wake | Round: | Opponent: Cal HP | Judge:

    • ckson1NC Trip DA

      Obama’s trip cements US leadership in Asia – plan trades off – kills US assurances

      Ernest Bower, staff writer, 10-27-2011, “Why November Matters for Obama,” The Diplomat, http://the-diplomat.com/2011/10/27/why-november-matters-for-obama/

      US President Barack Obama and his national security

      AND

      ‘the price of greatness is responsibility.’

      Plan causes congressional backlash

      Seth McLaughlin, Staff writer, 4-26-2011, “Key foreign policy players try to master capitol hill,” The Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7829:key-foreign-policy-players-try-to-master-capitol-hill&catid=1473:may-2011&Itemid=471

      Though the State Department and foreign operations budget

      AND

      be zeroed out altogether, or severely gutted.

      Impact is heg, japan nuclearization, Taiwan conflict, Indo-Pak war, and Korean conflict.

      Evelyn GohProfessor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies2008, “Hierarchy and the role of the United States in East Asian security order”,  “Hierarchy and the role of the United States in the East Asian security order,” Oxford 8(3):353-377

      The centrality of these mutual processes of assurance

      AND

      doing so would appear to be much worse.

       

      They don’t solve the root cause of our impacts

      Joshua Goldstein, Int’l Rel Prof @ American U, 2001, War and Gender, p. 412

      First, peace activists face a dilemma in

      AND

      cause of war seems to be empirically inadequate.

       

      The disad turns all their racism impacts

      Cynthia PetersNo Date, Life After Capitalism Essays. U.S. Anti War Activism

      This is a new element of war --

      AND

      are two lucky beneficiaries of the charitable Mattel.

       

      AT Aid Now – Klapper

       

      No new aid

      Michele Dunne, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council, 10-28-2011, “Assessing Political Transitions in the Mideast,” CFR, http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/assessing-political-transitions-mideast/p26330

      I advocate negotiating free-trade agreements with

      AND

      to trade with each other--intraregional trade.

       

      2NC No Budget Fight

      No fights over budgets – still a chance of a showdown.  no riders, GOP leaders avoid showdown

      Jay Newton-Small, staff writer, 11-4-2011, “Here We Go Again: Congress Squabbling as Another Shutdown Looms,” TIME, http://swampland.time.com/2011/11/04/here-we-go-again-congress-squabbling-over-budget-as-another-shutdown-looms/?iid=sl-main-mostpop2

      On Wednesday, the 175-member conservative

      AND

      brink of closure, they’re tanking financial markets.

      No massive battles over spending – still shaky compromise

      Alister Bull, staff writer, 11-8-2011, “White House budget boss confident of debt deal,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-washington-summit-lew-idUSTRE7A77JZ20111108

      (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's budget

      AND

      needed to be in any super committee deal.

       

       

       

      2NC Yes Trip/No Budget Involvement

      Obamas focused and pushing the Asia agenda

      David Nakamura, staff writer, 11-5-2011, “Obama to attend Asian economic summits,” The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-to-attend-asian-economic-summits/2011/11/05/gIQAtUMErM_story.html

      With Europe on the verge of a financial

      AND

      is leading once more in the Asia Pacific.”

      Framework for assessing link uniqueness – even if you think there are budget fights now, we have the only issue-specific uniqueness that Obama won't cancel his trip. Our link evidence says the MAGNITUDE of those fights matters for Obama's decision. Even if they win some risk of thumpers causing fights now, you should still vote neg, because there's only a risk the plan is the straw that breaks the camels back

       

      Their card doesn’t say there wont be reconciliation or that Obama will have to come back now

       

      Obama is distancing himself from minor budget battles

      Ken Walsh, staff writer, 11-3-2011, “Obama Giving the 'Super Committee' the Cold Shoulder,” US News, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ken-Walshs-Washington/2011/11/03/obama-giving-the-super-committee-the-cold-shoulder

      White House officials say Obama doesn't want to

      AND

      week to discuss international economic and other issues.

      Current pressure is insufficient – new massive battles cause him to get drawn back

      Ari Shapiro, staff writer, 11-10-2011, “To Obama, 'Go West Young Man' Means Engaging Asia,” NPR, http://www.npr.org/2011/11/09/142182582/to-obama-go-west-young-man-means-engaging-asia

      Not everyone is convinced that it is worth

      AND

      more popular — and perhaps, more influential.

       

      2NC Internals Wall

      Fiat brings him home

      Carol Lancaster, SFS Dean at Georgetown, 2008, “George Bush’s Foreign Aid,” 12-13.

      Major structural changes in government—for example

      AND

      benefits to engage a president’s attention and involvement.

      Massive budget battles causes him to cut the trip – current fights aren’t sufficient

      Laura MacInnis, staff writer, 11-7-2011, “Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour,” Chicago Tribune, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story

      WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's

      AND

      on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

      Plan shifts his political calculus – can’t let a showdown go down when hes abroad

      The New Age, 11-10-2011, “Obama's Pacific trip a tough sell at home,” http://www.thenewage.co.za/34650-1020-53-Obama%27s_Pacific_trip_a_tough_sell_at_home

      US President Barack Obama's swing through the Pacific

      AND

      trips to Asia to a skeptical press corps.

       

      Foreign aid will face spending cuts

      James Rosen, McClatchy President's Award-winning journalist with MA in Journalism from Columbia, 10-24-2011, “S.C. Sen. Graham fights to save foreign aid programs,” McClatchy Newspapers, http://www.kansascity.com/2011/10/24/3225999/sc-sen-graham-fights-to-save-foreign.html

      In Congress, Graham’s trying to do his

      AND

      , but it is something I’m interested in.”

       

      Asian leaders look at the budget battles

      Don Robinson, staff writer, 11-9-2011, “Obama Asia-Pacific Trip Part of US 'Refocus' on Region,” VOA, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Asia-Pacific-Trip-Part-of-US-Refocus-on-Region-133572823.html

      "What a lot of the members of

      AND

      even during a time of tight federal budgets.

       




11/13/11
  • Jackson Vanick DA

    • Tournament: Wake | Round: 8 | Opponent: Samford BL | Judge: Bricker

    • A1NC JV DA

      Text:  Russia should allow Georgia to restore its control over customs check-points, allow for electronic exchange of trade data and international monitoring of trade between Russia and Georgia, increase its protection of intellectual property rights to be similar to United States standards, pledge total commitment to duty-free access for information technology, remove its auto investment policy, ensure market access for United States agricultural goods to its market, pledge to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity and demilitarize its border with Georgia.

      This gets Russia into the WTO.

      Nino Patsuria, staff writer for the Weekly Georgian Journal, 10-13-2010, “Georgia has to puzzle out Russia –WTO deal,” http://georgianjournal.ge/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=501:georgia-has-to-puzzle-out-russia-wto-deal&catid=4:economy&Itemid=6

      Georgia will vote for Russia’s enrollment at the

      AND

      institutions’ loans, ” Kalandadze told Georgian Journal.

      CP puts J-V at the top of the docket – Obama is pushing and it will pass

      Doug Palmer, staff writer, 9-29-2011, “UPDATE 1-U.S. vote on Russia trade looms as WTO deal nears,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/29/usa-russia-trade-idUSS1E78S16C20110929

      WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) -

      AND

      having the commercial market access," Keeler said.

      PC is key – solves relations

      Bruce Stokes, Staff writer for the National Journal, 1-26-2011, “An Agenda, If You Can Keep It,” National Journal, http://www2.nationaljournal.com/member/daily/balance-of-payments

      After years of relative quiescence, Congress actually

      AND

      but doing so could be an uphill slog.

      Relations solve multiple world problems – each causes extinction

      Jeffrey Tayler, 08 -The Atlantic staff writer, “Medvedev Spoils the Party,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/11/medvedev-spoils-the-party/7130/

       Like it or not, the United

      AND

      to face a volatile future arm in arm. 

      2NC Impact Wall

      Each of the global problems Tayler isolates causes extinction

      Heg

      Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND, Washington Quarterly, Spring, 1995

      Under the third option, the United States

      AND

      bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

      North Korea

      Peter Hayes, prof at Victoria University, and Michael Green, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, 1-5-2010, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf

      The consequences of failing to address the proliferation

      AND

      that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

      Resource depletion

      Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, 5-19-2008, “The New Geopolitics of Energy,” http://www.thenation.com/article/new-geopolitics-energy

      These and other efforts by Russia and China

      AND

      and a better chance at overcoming global warming.

      Iran

      Toff Daijgneault, staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Wars And Rumors of War---A Strategic View of Any Possible Future Western/israeli Military Strike in The Middle East,” Bukisa, http://www.bukisa.com/articles/369915_wars-and-rumors-of-war-a-strategic-view-of-any-possible-future-westernisraeli-military-strike-in-the-middle-east

      Looking at any potential future strike against Iran

      AND

      would become dragged in as Iran's strategic partners.

       

      Turns case

      Tayler says US-Russia coop is key to global bioD

      Nuclear war devastsates bioD – that’s birks and erlich in the 1nc

       

      Turns terrorism

      Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE), Мarch 2011, “analytical report by the russian Group of the Valdai international discussion club”, http://vid-1.rian.ru/ig/valdai/US-Russia%20relations_eng.pdf

      The agenda of cooperation between Russia and the

      AND

      the international community in the broadest possible format.

      Turns bioweapons

      Dimitri, Simes, President, Nixon Center

      AND

      9-30-03,pg. ln

      Biological weapons, chemical weapons, they are

      AND

      closer cooperation between Russian and American intelligence services.

      Relations

      It’s the major block to relations

      Anna Malik, staff writer for BNO News, 3-9-2011, “Russian President Medvedev urges the U.S. to abandon the Jackson-Vanik amendment,” Breaking News Online, http://news.rickey.org/russian-president-medvedev-urges-the-u-s-to-abandon-the-jackson-vanik-amendment/2642

      But he then continued onto a more controversial

      AND

      keep dealing with it throughout your entire career.”

       

      AT: Dickinson

      DICKINSON CONCLUDES NEG – prefer this evidence because its from a peer reviewed journal and isn’t just a random blog post.

      Dickinson, yes the same damn one, 2009 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

      Small wonder, then, that initial efforts

      AND

      vote (Beckmann 2008, n.d.).   

      Ideology doesn’t outweigh – presidential success dictates votes

      Lebo, 2010 (Matthew J. Lebo, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, and Andrew O'Geen, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, Journal of Politics, “The President’s Role in the Partisan Congressional Arena” forthcoming, google)

      Keeping this centrality in mind, we use

      AND

      party politics into the literature on the presidency.

      AT: Rels Resil

      Massive symbolic effect – litmus test

      Finlay Lewis, Staff writer for Congressional Quarterly Weekly, 8-10-2008, “Russia Longs to Graduate At the Top of Trade Class,” http://www.ncsj.org/AuxPages/081009CQ_Jackson-Vanik.shtml

      President Obama has repeatedly stressed that he intends

      AND

      .S.-Russia relationship,” he said.

       

      PC Key – Russian PNTR

      PC is key

      RIA Novosti, 11-10-2010, “Georgia could delay Russia's accession to WTO - finance minister,” http://en.rian.ru/world/20101011/160917700.html

      On October 1, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev

      AND

      remain, everything is possible," Kudrin said.

      US support is necessary and sufficient

      Richard Solash, Staff writer for Radio Free Europe, 6-25-2010, “ Despite Boost In U.S. Support, Russia's WTO Bid Still Faces Opposition In Georgia,” http://www.rferl.org/content/Despite_Boost_US_Support_Russia_WTO_Bid_Opposition_Georgia/2082635.html

      Russian officials have made it clear that they

      AND

      .S. and Russia trust one another."

      Extending MFNS to Russia causes massive political battles

      David Harris, writer for the NYT, Director of the American Jewish Committee, 7-15-2010, “End a Cold War Relic,” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/16/opinion/16iht-edharris.html

      The obstacle lies in Congress. Some legislators

      AND

      the impression that it is being done grudgingly.

      Yes

      High risk – Obama pushes and high on the docket

      Sergei Sayenko, staff writer, 11-11-2011, “Obama urges Congress to cancel Jackson-Vanik,” The Voice of Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/11/11/60236896.html

      The U.S. President Barack Obama

      AND

      begin before the end of the current year.

      Top of the docket and will mass – Obama’s push

      Tom Washington, staff writer, 10-19-2011, “US fans Russian WTO hopes,” The Moscow News, http://themoscownews.com/politics/20111019/189134639.html

      The Cold War era Jackson-Vanik amendment

      AND

      on the WTO a tangible and imminent reality.

      Business push

      Andrew Roth, staff writer, 11-1-2011, “The Baby with the Bathwater,” Russia Profile, http://russiaprofile.org/politics/48337.html

      Yet Samuel Charap, director for Russia and

      AND

      -Vanik on the books,” he said.

      J-V repeal coming – overcomes congressional opposition

      Chris Weafer, staff writer, 11-9-2011, “Russia's accession to the WTO creates incentives and timetables,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/11/09/russias_accession_to_the_wto_creates_incentives_and_timetables_13717.html

      European companies are initially better placed to benefit

      AND

      U.S. companies would lose out.

      Top of the docket and will pass – economic concerns

      Svetlana Andreyeva, staff writer, 10-5-2011, “Almost no obstacles to Russian WTO entry,” The Voice of Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/05/58198749.html

      The United States backs the Russian drive for

      AND

      finally closed by the end of this year.

      CP makes passage likely – reduces the amount of PC that is necessary

      RIA Novosti, 11-2-2010, “Tomas Graham: Obama will be pressed to walk back from reset with Russia,” http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20101102/161178001.html

      The decision that the congress will have to

      AND

      that is what will happen in the end.

      TOD

      Accession coming in days

      Russia Times, 10-20-2011, “‘Russia may become WTO member in weeks’,” http://rt.com/news/russia-wto-interview-medvedkov-255/

      Even with Georgia still opposed to Russia’s WTO

      AND

      than we were ever before,” he added.

      WTO ascension forces congressional focus

      Matthew Rojansky, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment, 10-27-2010, “The 2010 Elections and U.S.-Russia Relations: A View from Washington,” http://www.carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=41833

      Although the U.S. Trade Representative

      AND

      issue until Russia’s WTO membership forces a decision.

      WTO accession force congressional focus – causes major congressional fight

      Radio Free Europe, 4-2-2009, “Russia WTO Bid Still Faces Big U.S. Obstacles,” http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_WTO_Bid_Still_Faces_Big_US_Obstacles/1566348.html

      Once Russia reaches a final deal to join

      AND

      PNTR for China in 2000, Goudie said.

      Gets it to top of the docket and Obama pushes

      AP, 2-8-2011, “U.S. to press South Korea, Panama, Colombia and Russian trade,” http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2011/02/us-to-press-south-korea-panama-colombia.html

      WASHINGTON, President Barack Obama wants to win

      AND

      remove the Jackson-Vanik amendment for Russia.

      Accession causes Obama push

      Xinhua News, 10-26-2011, “Top U.S. lawmaker links Russia's WTO accession with Georgia's territory,” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-10/26/c_122197858.htm

      U.S. Vice President Joe Biden

      AND

      unconditional most-favored-nation trade status.

      WTO accession forces Obama to push Jackson-Vanik repeal

      UPI, 3-14-2011, Lexis

      "Yet our trade and investment relationship is

      AND

      also warned Russia against "backsliding on democracy."

      Accession puts it at the top of the docket

      Donna Cassata, staff writer, 10-25-2011, “Speaker says Russia's WTO entry hinges on Georgia,” AP, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hNuJVxKG6ok-Cg_qxwakYs3aAqcw?docId=2b1b6bee45c8486f99ae77789ce61cea

      If Russia joins the WTO, Congress would

      AND

      Union to allow emigration, primarily of Jews.

       

      AT:  Jobs Thumper

      Jackson-Vanik is part of the jobs push

      Josh Rogin, staff writer, 10-12-2011, “McFaul: We must give Russia privileged trade status,” FP, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/12/mcfaul_we_must_give_russia_privileged_trade_status

      But the Obama administration has decided to make

      AND

      in the position of being against American workers.

       

       

      Thumpers

      Group fights 1. No ev Obama loses

      AND

      isn’t sufficient – PC can still get JV through

      Swag wasn’t congress

      Latest strategy proves hes building PC

      Richard Wolf, staff writer, 10-27-2011, “Obama uses executive powers to get past Congress,” USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2011-10-26/obama-executive-orders/50942170/1

      "It's the executive branch flexing its muscles

      AND

      to see the administration pick up the pace."

      AT:  Non-bill Thumpers

      Thumpers irrelevant if they aren’t bills that pass

      Kevin Drum, Political Blogger, “Immigration Coming Off the Back Burner?” 2010. http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner

      Not to pick on Ezra or anything,

      AND

      Maybe not. But they will be soon.

      No political controversy outside of the bills themselves

      Richard Wolf, staff writer, 10-13-2011, “Obama won't negotiate with Republicans on jobs,” The Oval, http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/10/obama-wont-negotiate-with-republicans-on-jobs/1?csp=34news

      "We are happy to work with Republicans

      AND

      don't result in action. People want action."

      AT: WW is a win

      Wins are ephemeral – only a win if they win everyone likes the plan

      Rebuilding takes a while.

      Dan Lashof, director of the National Resource Defense Council's climate center, Ph.D. from the Energy and Resources Group at UC-Berkeley, 7-28-2010, NRDC Switchboard Blog, "Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda: Lessons from Senate Climate Fail," http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlashof/coulda_shoulda_woulda_lessons.html

      Lesson 2: Political capital is not necessarily

      AND

      help push climate legislation across the finish line.

      Fights bleed momentum – they don’t generate capital

      John Harris and Carol Lee, Staff writers for Politico, 1-20-2010, Obama’s first year, Politico, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4DF829C9-18FE-70B2-A8381A971FA3FFC9

      Obama believed that early success would be self

      AND

      legislative battle on Capitol Hill over health care.

       

       

       

      Yemen Causes backlash

      Anthony Cordesman, Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, “Shaping and Communicating US Plans for the Future in a Time of Region-Wide Change and Instability,” 04-14-11, http://csis.org/publication/us-strategy-gulf

      The US will have to rebalance its relationships

      AND

      regime stability and excessive security measures are over.

       

      Mccain not key -

      GOP Congress in favor of cutting aid to Yemen in order to cut the budget deficit

      Islamabad Dateline, 7-23-2011, “Not kicking the hornet’s nest” Lexis

      It came only on the heels halting military

      AND

      managed to hide for years inside the country.

      Aid to Yemen sparks a fight

      Cheryl Chumley, online editor Tea Party Review Magazine, “House GOP proposes cuts in foreign aid,” 2011. http://www.teapartyreview.com/house-gop-proposes-cuts-foreign-aid

      The House Foreign Affairs Committee brought forth a

      AND

      Department and foreign operations in the next budget."

      Link – Aid

      Plan requires overcoming isolationist ideology

      David Kramer, president of Freedom House, and Arch Puddington is director of research, 8-4-2011, “Look to the cold war to chill fresh calls for American isolationism,” CSM, Lexis.

      The debate about America's world role recently has

      AND

      began with an important speech on May 19).

       

      PC Key – Russian PNTR

      Big Obama push is key.

      Finlay Lewis, Staff writer for Congressional Quarterly Weekly, 8-10-2008, “Russia Longs to Graduate At the Top of Trade Class,” http://www.ncsj.org/AuxPages/081009CQ_Jackson-Vanik.shtml

      Still, should Obama seek Russia’s release from

      AND

      wants to plant their flag on that mountaintop.”

      Political support for Obama is key

      Reuters, 10-19-2011, “US senators back Georgia in WTO talks with Russia,” http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN1E79I28A20111019

      Both the Senate and House of Representatives would

      AND

      to alienate lawmakers whose support it will need.

      Empirics prove – PC is key and other items trade off

      Nikolas Gvosdev, Staff writer for the New Atlanticist, 4-6-2009, “Obama’s Russia Reset – Don’t Forget About Congress,” http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/obamas-russia-reset-dont-forget-about-congress

      And other key items on the agenda?

      AND

      staff recommend he waste on the Russia portfolio?

      Obama push is key – overcomes inertia

      Greg Robb, Staff writer for Market Watch, 7-1-2010, “Obama agrees to help Russia over WTO finish line,” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-agrees-to-help-russia-over-wto-finish-line-2010-07-01?pagenumber=2

      WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama's

      AND

      -owned enterprises and export tariffs for lumber.

      Congress will attempt to block Obama’s actions

      AFP, 11-28-2010, “Obama's Russia 'reset' in peril in nuclear row,” http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Obamas_Russia_reset_in_peril_in_nuclear_row_999.html

      Last week, Obama promised to work with

      AND

      may decide to make trouble for Obama again.

      PNTR causes massive battles

      Reuters, 7-26-2010, “U.S. piracy concerns looms large over Russia's WTO bid,” http://www.theglobalipcenter.com/news/us-piracy-concerns-looms-large-over-russias-wto-bid

      If Obama is successful in shepherding Russia into

      AND

      of lost U.S. manufacturing jobs.

       




01/01/12
  • Multilat Coop CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1NC Multilateral Cooperation CP

       

      Text:  The United States Federal Government should:

       

      Publicly reaffirm support for the United Nations’ efforts to combat terrorism, especially Security Council efforts to enforce antiterrorism measures by using its Chapter VII authority;

       

      Call for the creation of a new multilateral counterterrorism organization open to all nations that have ratified key antiterrorism treaties and/or taken effective steps to implement them, and direct the Department of State to begin diplomatic negotiations leading to a conference dedicated to creating this new organization

      Solves multilateral terror cooperation.

      Alistair Millar, director of the center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and teachers counterterrorism and foreign policy at Johns Hopkins and GWU, and Eric Rosand, senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and NYU’s Center on International Cooperation, 2008, “Building global Alliances in the Fight Against Terrorism,” http://www.globalproblems-globalsolutions-files.org/unf_website/PDF/2008_millar_rosand_terrorism.pdf

      The next Administration should call for the establishment

      AND

      terrorist threat are a thing of the past.




01/01/12
  • Yemen AQAP Adv

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • AQAP

      No retal

      Conventional retaliation is most likely

      David Sanger and Thom Shanker, New York Times Staff Writers, 5-8-2007, “U.S. Debates Deterrence for Nuclear Terrorism,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/washington/08nuke.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin

      Among the subjects of the meeting last year

      AND

      a nonnuclear retaliation, whether military or diplomatic.

       

      1NC Yemen Says No

      Yemen would say no – they’re hyper-vigilant against perceptions of outside interference

      Andrew Terrill, Nat. Sec. Prof, 2-15-2011, "The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security," Defence Talk, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/

      Yemen is also an especially distrustful and wary

      AND

      in U.S.-Yemeni security relations.

       

      1NC No AQAP – Capacity

      AQAP sucks – they already lack capacity for attacks and will decline in the future, even in the worst case scenario

      James Spencer, retired infantry commander, 6-8-2011, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show

      The special operations group of AQAP, mostly

      AND

      would complicate AQAP's operation rather than enable it.

      AQAP can’t strike outside of Yemen

      Jeremy Sharp, specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 3-22-2011, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations,” CRS, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

      Furthermore, some analysts reject outright the hypothesis

      AND

      could well set off a tribal response. 37

       

      1NC SQ Solves AQAP – Intel

      US is kicking terrorist ass in Yemen – we get intel now, despite instability

      Hamza Hendawi, 10-16-2011, “U.S. says air strike in Yemen kills 9 militants,” SF Gate, http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-10-16/news/30288318_1_abyan-province-al-qaeda-militants-powerful-al

      The United States has intensified its war against

      AND

      actionable intelligence to U.S. commanders.

      Cooperation with future Yemeni government is inevitable, despite anti-americanism – the opposition is pragmatic and it’s in their interest to fight terrorism

      Elizabeth Arrott, 10-2-2011, Voice of America, “US faces dilemma with anti-terror ally Yemen,” http://www.voanews.com/english/news/US-Faces-Dilemma-with-Anti-Terror-Ally-Yemen-130936708.html

      The killing of extremist cleric Anwar al Awlaki

      AND

      alliances, at least in the short term.

      Terrorism Alt-Cause – Yemen Not Key

      Failed states don’t cause extinction – only low level conflicts – empirically proven by most of Africa

      Yemen isn’t key to terrorism – other threats outweigh

      Michael Scheuer, Security Prof @ Georgetown, 8-24-2011, “The Zawahiri Era,” National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/article/zawahiri-era-5732

      For all the Obama-administration rhetoric to

      AND

      Canada, Australia, South Africa and India.

      Bin Laden’s Death killed Al Qaeda

      Fareed Zakaria, CNN correspondent, 5-2-2011, “Al Qaeda is Over”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/02/al-qaeda-is-dead/

      In the wake of Osama bin Laden’s death

      AND

      Western world. That existential threat is gone.

       

      1NC Terrorists Suck

      even if there is a high chance terrorists could succeed at every step, there is a low chance of ultimate success

      Michael Levi, Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at Council on Foreign Relations, 4-20-2007, “How Likely is a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States?” http://www.cfr.org/publication/13097/

      We should not, however, underestimate the

      AND

      quick to ignore small chances of terrorist failure.

       

      AT: Bioterror

      No impact to CBWs

      Stratfor, 7-1-2008, “Nuclear Weapons: Terrorism and the Nonstate Actor,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/nuclear_weapons_terrorism_and_nonstate_actor

      STRATFOR has repeatedly pointed out that chemical and

      AND

      hardly have been classified as attacks utilizing WMD.

      CBW attack unlikely – experts agree

      UNF Untied Nations Foundation, 9-27-2001, “Experts: Biochemical Terrorism Unlikely,” http://www.unwire.org/unwire/20010927/18688_story.asp

      There are serious obstacles to the possible terrorist

      AND

      (CNN Live Event, Sept. 25).

       

      AT:  Indo-Pak War

      Deterrence solves Indo-Pak war – encourages mutual restraint

      Sumit Ganguly, Professor of Political at Indiana University, Fall 2008, “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security, Volume 33, Number 2, Muse

      As the outcomes of the 1999 and 2001

      AND

      of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan.




01/01/12
  • Yemen Socotra Adv

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • AT: Socotra Advantage

      Yemeni stability is impossible – tons of problems besides protests

      Joseph Natividad, August 2011, “Beyond Political Upheaval,” Prospect, http://prospectjournal.ucsd.edu/index.php/2011/08/beyond-political-upheaval-yemens-looming-economic-and-demographic-problems/

      Below the surface of Yemen’s political strife,

      AND

      the poorest Arab nation within the next decade.

      Nuclear war destroys ecosystems

      John Birks, Associate Professor of Chemistry at the University of Colorado, and Anne Ehrlich, Senior Research Associate in the Department of Biological Sciences at Stanford University, Hidden Dangers Environmental Consequences of Preparing for War, 1990,0 p. 135

      Each nuclear winter effect by itself—sharply

      AND

      just when human survivors were in dire need.

      Gutcheck – this advantage is about one fucking island in the Arabian Sea. Even if it’s got a bunch of cute animals, it’s not key to global bio-d. Socotra might be important, but it’s not the key lynchpin and there’s no spillover

      Just an impact to stability – if we win they can’t solve stability, they can’t solve investment

      Don’t buy their rhetorical cards from cheesy NGO’s about how important endemic snails are – Socotra doesn’t even make the list of the top 25 most important global bio-d hotspots. We’ll submit this list from Conservation International.

      Conservation International, 2007, “Biodiversity Hotspots,” http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots/hotspots_by_region/Pages/default.aspx

       

      North and Central America … Sri Lanka

       

      Socotra has a max of a few thousand species – their author

      World Heritage Marine Programme 2011 [Accessed 8-21-11, “Socotra Archipelago,” http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1263]

      Socotra Archipelago, in the northwest Indian Ocean

      AND

      300 species of crab, lobster and shrimp.

       

      There’s almost 2 million species in the world – we can lose Socotra

      World Conservation Union, 2010, “IUCN Red List,” http://www.currentresults.com/Environment-Facts/Plants-Animals/number-species.php

      How many species are known to currently exist

      AND

      ,563 TOTAL SPECIES 1,740,330

       

      Socotra is only a subset of a larger hotspot in the Horn of Africa – its already straight screwed

      Conservation International, 2007, “Biodiversity Hotspots,” http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/hotspots/horn_africa/Pages/default.aspx

      The arid Horn of Africa has been a

      AND

      unstable government control have also been major problems.

      Alt-causes to Socotra bio-d that have nothing to do with instability – development, habitat fragmentation, pollution, tourism, resource use – their author

      Van Damme and Banfield ’11 [Kay Van

      AND

      /031-088%20VanDammeBanfield.pdf]

      The Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is globally

      AND

      traditional knowledge in the protection of Socotran ecosystems.

      Their spillover card is an embarrassment – Talhouk isn’t about Socotra and says that the whole Arab region SHOULD coordinate on bio-d. Zero evidence the plan causes more international coordination. if status quo efforts were failing in 2009 when their Talhouk evidence was written, they have no REVERSE CAUSAL evidence the plan can improve bio-d

       

      Nanotech –

      a) It’s inevitable

      John Robert Marlow, nanotech expert, “NanoFAQ”, 2004, http://johnrobertmarlow.com/

      As Nobel laureate physicist Richard Feynman noted in

      AND

      working on development—can nanotechnology not happen?

       

      b) Solves bio-d

      K. Eric Drexler, Chieft Technical Avisor to Nanorex with a PhD in Molecular Nanotechnology from MIT, 2007, Engines Of Creation 2.0: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology pg. 267-269

      After the cleanup, we will recycle most

      AND

      cell repair machines thus affects our choices today.

       

      Socotra bio-d programs suck – no spillover, their author

      Van Damme 5-25-2011 [Kay, hydrobiologist at Ghent University in Belgium, has extensively explored the freshwater and cave ecosystems of Socotra, “Insular biodiversity in a changing world,” http://www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110525/full/nmiddleeast.2011.61.html]

      The number of international projects related to biodiversity

      AND

      of conservation credibility and of the biodiversity itself.

      If their brink evidence is true, they have ZERO risk of solving – Black says we have ten years to solve GLOBAL bio-d – plan can’t overcome politicking

      Black 2010 [Richard, environmental correspondent at BBC News, 10/18/10, 'Ten years' to solve nature crisis, UN meeting hears,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11563513?print=true]

      Governments first agreed back in 1992, at

      AND

      loss is to be transmitted effectively to policymakers.

       

      AT:  Biodiversity

      (  )  Human and environmental resiliency prevents extinction from loss of bio-d

      Holly Doremus, Professor of Law, U

      AND

      . Rev. 11, winter 2000 is one

      The Rhetoric and Reality of Nature Protection:

      AND

      Lee L. Rev. 11 (2000).

      In recent years, this discourse frequently has

      AND

      species, it likely will hold people.  n215

       

      (  )  Biodiversity isn’t key to survival

      Calgary Herald, 8-30-1997

      Ecologists have long maintained that diversity is one

      AND

      of ecosystem function and insurance against ecological collapse."

       

      (  )  It’s already too late

      Norman Myers, Visiting Fellow at Green College

      AND

      , Biodiversity II, p. 136-137

      Ozone-destroying CFCs now in the at

      AND

      if it were relieved of humankind's continuing disruptions.

      AT:  Coral

      Coral will adapt – most recent studies prove

      Dan Vergano, science correspondent, 1-18-2011, “Corals adapt to global warming-related infections,” USA Today, http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/01/corals-global-warming/1?loc=interstitialskip

      Corals may battle global warming-spawned diseases

      AND

      this would make an adaptive model less useful."

      Marine ecosystems are resilient

      Vogt, M., Steinke, M., Turner, S., Paulino, A., Meyerhofer, M., Riebesell, U., LeQuere, C. and Liss, P. Co2 Science, July 16, 2008, Marine Ecosystem Response to "Ocean Acidification" Due to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment, 2008. Dynamics of dimethylsulphoniopropionate and dimethylsulphide under different CO2 concentrations during a mesocosm experiment. Biogeosciences 5: 407-419, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V11/N29/B2.php

      What was learned Vogt et al. report

      AND

      : it may have been a little unexpected.

      Multiple factors allow reefs to recover from stress

      IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature 1-2009, http://www.iucn.org/cccr/resilience_to_climate_change/

      Resilience - A promising paradigm Even though climate

      AND

      larval settlement and protection from other anthropogenic impacts.  

       




01/01/12
  • Payroll Tax Cuts

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1NC PTC

      PTC will pass and is Obama’s sole focus

      Carol E. Lee, staff writer, 12-31-2011, “White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda,” WSJ, ProQuest.

      HONOLULU--President Barack Obama heads into 2012

      AND

      of being a champion of the middle class.

      Plan costs PC

      Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Doha Center, 1-27-2011, “Tunisia, Egypt, Arab world need bold US support for democracy, not mixed messages,” Jewish World Review, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0111/middle_east_democracy.php3

      These actions have a clear intent — to

      AND

      Oddly, they've become more difficult to find.

      PC key

      Mail Online UK, “'I won't take no for an answer on jobs bill': Defiant Obama vows to continue despite Senate defeat,“ 10-13-2011, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048604/Obama-I-wont-answer-Jobs-bill.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

      President Barack Obama has recorded a defiant new

      AND

      now back the bill, according to SBS.

       

      1NC PTC – Econ Module

      Key to economy

      Patrice Hill, staff writer, 12-28-2011, “Economists fear withdrawal symptoms if payroll-tax cut vanishes,” The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/28/economists-fear-withdrawal-symptoms-if-payroll-tax/?page=all#pagebreak

      It was the tax cut that nobody noticed

      AND

      quarter after it is withdrawn, analysts estimate.

      That causes nuke war---bipartisan economic solutions are key

      Khalilzad 11 Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Econom and National Security" Feb 8 www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/259024

      Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the

      AND

      new, dangerous era of multi-polarity.

       

      Econ decline causes War

      Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs, 5-30-2011, “A Post-Secular World?”, Survival, Vol. 53 Issue 2, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2011.571015

      Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of

      AND

      converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

      Uniqueness

      *2NC Yes PTC

      Lee says Obama’s new PC over 2 month extension and GOP audience costs ensure passage.

      Obama push gets though weak GOP opposition and PTC is the only contentious issue

      Stan Collender, staff writer, 12-29-2011, “Payroll Tax Extension Will Be Only Hostage-Taking Opportunity for GOP in 2012,” Wall Street Pit, http://wallstreetpit.com/88167-payroll-tax-extension-will-be-only-hostage-taking-opportunity-for-gop-in-2012

      And taking the payroll tax extension hostage may

      AND

      when the Bush/Obama tax cuts expire.

      Bipartisan support

      Gail Russell Chaddock, staff writer, 12-27-2011, “‘Payroll Tax, The Sequel’: Did either side learn any lessons from Part 1?” CSM, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/1227/Payroll-Tax-The-Sequel-Did-either-side-learn-any-lessons-from-Part-1

      Both sides were close in December so

      AND

      faith, this can be resolved rather easily.”

      Weak GOP

      Joan McCarter, staff writer, 12-29-2011, “Tea party cave-in on payroll tax extension bodes well for Democrats in next skirmish,” Daily Kos, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/29/1049758/-Tea-party-cave-in-on-payroll-tax-extension-bodes-well-for-Democrats-in-next%C2%A0skirmish

      But there are some lessons to be learned

      AND

      , and without having to make outrageous concessions.

      Inertia

      Jia Lynn Yang, staff writer, 12-30-2011, “Payroll tax cut raises worries about Social Security's future funding,” My San Antonio, http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Payroll-tax-cut-raises-worries-about-Social-2433860.php#page-1

      The tax cut is supposed to be temporary

      AND

      two-month cut for all of 2012.

       

       

      2NC PTC Good – Econ

      Consensus and math go neg

      David Dayen, staff writer, 12-22-2011, “The Economics of the Payroll Tax/UI/Doc Fix Bill,” FDL, http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/12/22/the-economics-of-the-payroll-taxuidoc-fix-bill/

      Now we move to the payroll tax cut

      AND

      now would do the opposite of what’s needed.

       

      Kills the economy

      CNN Money, 8-10-11, p. http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/10/news/economy/double_dip_recession_economy/index.htm

      Another recession could be even worse than the last one for a few reasons.

      For starters, the economy is more vulnerable

      AND

      have virtually no policy effort to counteract it. 

       

      AT: Recess Appointment

       

      Obama isn’t stupid – our evidence says PTC is the top of his agenda. If appointments were going to cost capital, he would never have done it – plan is different since it’s not his choice

      Even if recess appointments were unpopular, they didn’t require congress – means no capital loss

      Brian Beutler, 1-4-2012, “Obama Suddenly On a Recess Appointments Roll,” TPM, http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/obama-breathes-life-into-labor-board-with-more-recess-appointments.php

      Add the National Labor Relations Board to the

      AND

      been recess appointed. At least not yet.

       

      The whole point of recess appointments is to not involve congress

      Peter Nicholas, 1-4-2012, “Obama touts recess appointment,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-touts-recess-appointment-i-refuse-to-take-no-for-an-answer-20120104,0,373228.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+%28L.A.+Times+-+Politics%29

      Obama had nominated Cordray last summer, but

      AND

      enabling him to bypass the Senate confirmation process.

       

       

       

      Democracy assistance to Libya enrages congress – fear of foreign entanglement, austerity climate, attachment to constitutional fights, and isolationism

      Theo Emery, staff writer, 8-23-2011, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya,” Boston Globe, http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html

      WASHINGTON – After protests erupted in Libya early

      AND

      we going to build in any one time?”

      Link – Libya

      DA to Libya is unpopular – austerity climate and no vested interest

      Jennifer Bendery, staff writer, 8-25-2011, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say,” Huffington Post, http://abreakingnews.com/window.php?do=829464.html

      WASHINGTON -- At a time when the country

      AND

      added Frank, "we can't afford it."

      Link – Libya

      Austerity climate makes aid untenable

      David Arnold, staff writer, 9-9-2011, “France, Not US, Takes Lead in Libya Democracy Building,” USA2UAE, http://usa2uae.com/index.php/2011/09/09/france-not-us-takes-lead-in-libya-democracy-building/

      As Congress prepares to address a federal deficit

      AND

      to buttressing a third nation any time soon.

      AT: Fopo win

      Foreign policy can only hurt Obama – Libya, Osama prove domestic issues outweigh

      Aaron David Miller, public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, 9-22-2011, “The Do-Nothing Strategy,” FP, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/22/the_do_nothing_strategy?page=0,2

      Still, amid all the fog and confusion

      AND

      money and exploiting highly combustible issues like Israel.

       

       

      2NC AT:  Winners Win

      Its only a win if its popular

      Fights bleed momentum – they don’t generate capital

      John Harris and Carol Lee, Staff writers for Politico, 1-20-2010, Obama’s first year, Politico, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4DF829C9-18FE-70B2-A8381A971FA3FFC9

      Obama believed that early success would be self

      AND

      legislative battle on Capitol Hill over health care.

      Link outweighs turn – Harder to rebuild capital than lose it

      Marrissa Silber, prof of poli sci, samford, 8-30-2007, “What makes a president quack?” Prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.

      Important to the discussion of political capital is

      AND

      of a lame duck  President must be developed. 

      Rebuilding takes a while.

      Dan Lashof, director of the National Resource Defense Council's climate center, Ph.D. from the Energy and Resources Group at UC-Berkeley, 7-28-2010, NRDC Switchboard Blog, "Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda: Lessons from Senate Climate Fail," http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlashof/coulda_shoulda_woulda_lessons.html

      Lesson 2: Political capital is not necessarily

      AND

      help push climate legislation across the finish line.

       

       




01/04/12
  • AT: Cred Adv

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Inherency

      AT:  Aid Now

      Doesn’t non-unique the link – Omnibus didn’t increase aid, was shielded by other issues, wasn’t for topic countries and was pushed by one Congressman

      Jennifer Rubin, staff writer, 12-27-2011, "U.S. foreign aid done right," Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/us-foreign-aid-done-right/2011/12/27/gIQAIGY2KP_blog.html
      As a rule, omnibus spending bills are a bad idea. (Congressman can
      AND
      one informed congressman) gets it right, we should give ample credit. 

      Non Iraq and Afghanistan assistance actually declined —- and conditions were attached to it

      Susan Cornwell, staff writer, 12-19-2011, "U.S. foreign aid escapes slashing cuts in fiscal 2012," Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-usa-aid-idUSTRE7BI1KO20111219
      The U.S. State Department and foreign aid budget escaped devastating cuts in
      AND
      she feels it is in the U.S. national security interests.

      Smart Power

      1NC AT:  Credibility

      Single instances do not change international perceptions

      Christopher Fettweis, professor of political science at Tulane, Credibility and the War on Terror, Winter 2008, Political Science Quarterly, Ingenta.
      There is actually scant evidence that other states ever learn the right lessons. ColdWar
      AND
      to a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably failed.

      Obama is allergic to soft power – won’t use it even if he has it

      Mark Lagon, staff writer, 10-18-2011, "Soft Power Under Obama," ISN, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en%26id=133416%26contextid734=133416%26contextid735=133415%26tabid=133415%26dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233
       One irony of the Obama presidency is how much it relies on hard power
      AND
      as he gives tardy rhetorical support for popular forces casting aside other ones.

      No short-term decline —- no challengers and soft power is too resilient

      Joseph Nye, Soft Power Expert and Distinguished Prof @ Harvard, Nov/Dec 2010, "The Future of American Power," Foreign Affairs, Ebsco
      Any net assessment of American power in the coming decades will remain uncertain, but
      AND
      share overlapping social and governmental networks with it that provide opportunities for cooperation.

      2NC AT:  Credibility – No Decline

      US has large wellsprings of "latent power" it can tap

      William Wohlforth, Olin Fellow in International Security Studies at Yale University, Spring 2007, "Unipolar Stability: The Rules of Power Analysis, A Tilted Balance," Vol. 29 (1), http://hir.harvard.edu/a-tilted-balance/unipolar-stability
      US military forces are stretched thin, its budget and trade deficits are high,
      AND
      its self-inflicted overstretch and tap potentially large wellsprings of latent power. 

      Credibility is inevitable – not key to cooperation.

      William Wohlforth and Stephen Brooks, Daniel Webster Professor of Government,  Dartmouth.  BA in IR, MA in IR and MPhil and PhD in  pol sci, Yale March-April 2009 (, Reshaping the World Order, , Foreign Affairs Vol. 88, Iss. 2; pg. 49, 15 pgs)
      FOR ANALYSTS such as Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger, the key reason for skepticism
      AND
      UnitedStates today has the necessary legitimacy to shepherd reform of the international system. 

      AT:  Heg – Global Problems

      Withdraw doesn’t disrupt trade, cause terror, or great power war.

      Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 8-3-2010, "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?" http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
      Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
      AND
      in their own defense, and in the security of their respective regions.

      AT:  Heg – Transition Wars

      Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation

      John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, "A World of Our Making," Democracy, Issue ~%2321, http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=2
      Fourth, all the great powers have alignments of interests that will continue to bring
      AND
      politics, there are deep forces that keep the system anchored and stable. 

      The transition is peaceful – competitors will integrate not challenge

      John Ikenberry, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Jan/Feb 2008, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West; Can the Liberal System Survive?" Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, Iss. 1; pg. 23.
      That course, however, is not inevitable. The rise of China does not
      AND
      order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join.

      1NC AT:  ME Cred

      Negative perceptions are resilient

      Ted Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 2-11-2011, "What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little," CATO, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
      The situation in the Middle East is vastly — and depressingly — different. Populations
      AND
      policy would have been seen as much too little, much too late.

      Can’t help – only can hurt

      Andrew Terrill, Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 6-27-2011, "The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf," SSI, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27
      In an insightful if sardonic comment, leading Middle East military analyst Anthony Cordesman has
      AND
      Libyans it has emerged as something of a "hero-nation."4

      1NC AT:  ME Cred – Palestine Statehood

      Palestinian statehood kills US credibility

      AFP, 9-15-2011, "Obama’s dilemma on Palestinian State," http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1153284/1/.html
      WASHINGTON: A year after calling at the UN for a Palestinian state, President
      AND
      US image, reputation and credibility in the Arab world," he said.

      1NC AT:  Iran Heg

      No Iran heg

      Simon Tisdall, staff writer, 5-17-2011, "Iran has been isolated by the Arab spring," Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/17/iran-arab-spring
      Snap judgments in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran would be a main beneficiary of the
      AND
      well to ponder: "Whether Cairo or Tehran, death to tyrants%21"

      AT:  General Iran War

      A.     Checks and balances in Iranian system prevent individuals from making dangerous decisions

      Stratfor 6-11-2009 "Iran: A Presidential Election and Metamorphosis", http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090610_iran_presidential_election_and_metamorphosis
      It is because of this very complexity that the forthcoming presidential vote — perhaps the
      AND
      been skillfully manipulated by various stakeholders to serve their individual and collective interests.

       

      B.     Iran not adventurist

      Mehrzad Boroujerdi and Todd Fine, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University  and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University,  2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA
      The acquisition of nuclear weapons would also solidify Iran’s claims to being a core regional
      AND
      electricity generation, and diversifying energy sources through nuclear power are equally rational.

      D.    No risk of miscalc – multilayered decision making bodies check high risk behavior

      Mehrzad Boroujerdi and Todd Fine, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University  and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University,  2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA
      The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted by the existence of multiple consensus-
      AND
      prospect of Iran engaging in a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.

      Iran is a purely defensive state-

      Charles Mayer, Major, United States Air Force, National Security to Nationalist Myth: Why Iran Wants Nuclear Weapons, Thesis for Master of Arts in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, September, 2004, www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/mayer.pdf
      Iran can rightly be viewed as a status quo state. Despite the early revolutionary
      AND
      off attackers until the supreme leader can authorize the use of chemical munitions.

      Power Projection Inevitable

      Public support ensure power projection – sustains military spending.

      David McDonough, doctoral student in poli sci at Dalhousie U, January, 2009, "Beyond Primacy," Orbis, Volume 53, Issue 1.
      This addiction has an important impact on the dramatically rising levels of homeland security spending
      AND
      rather than going "beyond primacy"–for much of the Long War.



01/23/12

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