US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed – both sides want to return to the table
ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  
By the end of February, the crown
AND
chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.
Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable
Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,”
The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini
AND
Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.
Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest to gain influence in Bahrain
ICG, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”
At a broader level, and though it
AND
Shiites will turn to Iran for support.153
Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves
Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers
While U.S. and international attention
AND
national dialogue that charts the future of the country
Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in
Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense,
This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian
AND
assuming anyone is left to write about it.
Most likely scenario – lack of security framework and historical rivalries.
James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission,
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
AND
, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions – reconciliation soon is key
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-2011, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” Foreign Policy,
The killing of a 14-year-
AND
entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.
US hypocrisy causes anti-americanism and sectarian tensions
Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN,
Muslims see this narrative as being used to
AND
with the Muslim world will become more amicable.
Oppression in Bahrain causes regional sectarianism
Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times,
Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain
AND
many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.
Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing
POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,”
Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the
AND
European and American national interests to do so.
Offering US mediation creates a legitimate dialogue, solving radicalization and stability
Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,”
While it may be possible for the US
AND
the opposition in the wake of the crisis.
Plan
The United States Federal Government should provide assistance to mediate a dialogue with the Bahraini government and opposition group leaders. 

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SSD Good – Culture of Dissent

Switch-side debate fosters critical thinking and conceptual flexibility – creates a culture of dissent – prevents extremism and violence

Casey Harrigan, Associate Director of Debate at UGA, Master’s in Communications, Wake Forest U., 2008, “A Defense of Switch Side Debate”, Master’s thesis at Wake Forest, Department of Communication, May, pp.49-50

Additionally, there are social benefits to the

AND

; Colbert, 2002, p.82).

SSD Good – Culture of Dissent

Switch side debate creates a culture of dissent – prevents decision making failure and dogmatic ideology.

Gordon Mitchell, Associate Prof and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at U Pitt, Spring 2010, “Switch-Side Debating Meets Demand-Driven Rhetoric of Science,” Rhetoric & Public Affairs, Vol 13, No, 1, Spring 2010, Project Must.

Recently, U.S. intelligence officials

AND

and EPA debating initiatives, engages this question.

SSD Good – Argumentative Tolerance

Switch side debate promotes argumentative tolerance – that’s key to social tolerance preventing violence – their framework results in dogmatism

Casey Harrigan, Associate Director of Debate at UGA, Master’s in Communications, Wake Forest U., 2008, “A Defense of Switch Side Debate”, Master’s thesis at Wake Forest, Department of Communication, May, pp.49-50

The relevance of argumentation for advancing tolerant politics

AND

most robust checks against violence in contemporary society.

Role Playing Good

Role Playing Good – Rawls

Simulation of government action is key to liberal democracy – forms the basis for effective citizenship and is a moral obligation

John Rawls, held the James Bryant Conant University Professorship at Harvard, 3-2-2001, “The Law of Peoples: with ‘The Idea of Public Reason Revisited’,” Harvard University Press, pg 56-57.

How is the ideal of public reason realized

AND

social basis of peace and understanding among peoples.

Role Playing Good – Mitchell

Role playing as public actors shatters apathy and political alienation which is critical to check inequality and exploitation

Gordon Mitchell, Associate Professor of Communication at University of Pittsburgh, Winter 2000, “Stimulated Public Argument As Pedagogical Play on Worlds”, Argumentation and Advocacy, vol 36, no 3, pq

When we assume the posture of the other

AND

students' self-identities carry significant emancipatory potential.

Role Playing Good – Carlson

Advocacy of legal changes is vital to personal opinion formation and individual freedom, even if we don’t have our hands on the levers of power

David Gray Carlson, Duellism in Modern American Jurisprudence, Law Prof @ Cardozo, Columbia L. Rev, Nov. 1999, 99 Colum. L. Rev. 1908

Schlag is very hard on law professors who

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not exist. n325 In Hegel's inspirational words:

Policy Focus Good

Policy Focus Good – Middle East

Policy relevance solves Bush 3.0 – scholars need to speak the language of policy makers – key to public engagement, new perspectives, peace, and preventing imperialism.

Zachary Lockman is Chair of the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at New York University 2005 “Critique from the Right The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies” CR: The New Centennial Review 5.1 (2005) 63-110

It may be too soon to tell,

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many had mistakenly thought dead as a doornail.

Policy Focus Good – Themba-Nixon

Policy making is inevitable – changing the world requires that we engage

Makani Themba-Nixon, Executive Director of The Praxis Project, Former California Staffer, Colorlines. Oakland: Jul 31, 2000.Vol.3, Iss. 2; pg. 12

The flourish and passion with which she made

AND

we must be committed to making it so.

Demo Good

Democracy Assistance Focus on proximate causes of war is key – root cause analysis of an over determined generalization

Scott D. Sagan – Department of Political Science, Stanford University – ACCIDENTAL WAR IN THEORY AND PRACTICE – 2000 – available via: www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/sagan.doc

To make reasonable judgements in such matters it

AND

neither inevitable nor overdetermined during the Cold War.

Imperialism doesn’t foster violent interventions

Martin Shaw , Professor of International Relations and Politics @  University of Sussex, April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State”, http://www.theglobalsite.ac.uk/press/212shaw.htm

Furthermore, Western leaders have consistently sought to

AND

movements, rather than from the Western state.

External influence is positive

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization

There is a view that democracy and human

AND

and other quiet forms of ‘democracy diplomacy’.

isn’t inherently western and dialogue resolves the link

Gordon Crawford, professor of development politics at the University of Leeds, 2001, “Foreign Aid and Political reform: a comparative analysis of democracy assistance and political conditionality,”

Fifth, a related criticism of political aid

AND

book as a mechanism for resolving this contradiction.

2AC

Ontology is not a prerequisite 

David Owen, University of Southampton, July 2002, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism, and Practical Reasoning,” Millennium – Journal of International Studies, 31.3, p. 655-656

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

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only or even necessarily the most important kind.

Policy debate over Bahrain is good – holds policy makers accountable for complicity in crackdown

Ben Winegard, graduate student in psychological sciences at the University of Missouri, and Cortne Jai Winegard, specialist in community development, 3-10-2011, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on US Imperial Policies,” Dissident Voice, http://dissidentvoice.org/2011/03/understanding-bahrain-how-bahrain-shines-a-light-on-us-imperial-policies

The future of Bahrain remains uncertain, while

AND

busy organizing. This much is our responsibility.

Advocating on behalf of legal changes to reduce racism is valuable even if it doesn’t fix all whiteness – it teaches us the vocabulary and the techniques that are ultimately needed to achieve concrete change.

Gregory Scott Parks, J.D. candidate at Cornell University Law School. 2007. Cornell Law School Faculty Working Papers, “Critical Race Realism: Towards an Integrative Model of Critical Race Theory, Empirical Social Science, and Public Policy.” http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/clsops papers/23

However, narrative has its share of weaknesses

AND

to advance certain arguments in a case.407

Change from within a dominant discipline is possible – rejecting our framework is unnessary.

James A. Banks,  professor and director, Center for Multicultural Education, University of Washington, June-July, 1993, “The Canon Debate, Knowledge Construction, and Multicultural Education,” Educational Researcher 22.5, Illumina

It is important to point out, however

AND

be more influential during certain times or periods.

Their rejection of the plan in calling for absolute fidelity to their alternative makes cultural identification contingent on an absolutist vision of politics – this strips away the capacity for moral discrimination and results in an ontologically tortured existence.

Eddie S. Glaude Jr., Professor of Religion and African Studies at Bowdoin College. 2001. Nepantla: Views From the South 2.2 (2001) 295-316, “Pragmatism and Black Identity: An Alternative Approach.” Project Muse.

The problem arises when one single factor—

AND

forces that impinge on us at the time.

Excluding the aff from their project on the basis of a simplistic “for us or against us” dichotomy reduces their alternative to simplistic black nationalism – this turns the K

Norm R. Allen, Jr., executive director of African Americans for Humanism. 1995. Council for Democratic and Secular Humanism, “Reactionary black nationalism: authoritarianism in the name of freedom.”

Perhaps the most worrisome aspect of RBN is its tendency to gravitate toward influential authoritarian, neofascist, and even downright evil leaders and organizations. The NOI has - or has had - close ties or given verbal support to neofascist Lyndon LaRouche's organization, the Ayatollah Khomeini, strongman Moammar Gaddafi of Libya, and the current regime of Sudan.  Numerous organizations have issued reports of chattel slavery in Sudan, including Human Rights Watch/Africa, the British Anti-Slavery Society, the International Labor Organization (ILO), the U.S. State Department, United Nations investigators, the American Anti-Slavery Group (AASG), and the Coalition Against Slavery in Africa. Yet the NOI and other RBNs insist that slavery does not exist in Sudan and are blindly devoted to the defense of the Muslim Khartoum regime.  RBN has been attractive because it gives millions of blacks hope, pride, self-confidence, and a sense of community. It has taught blacks self-acceptance on their own terms, after being taught self-hate for centuries by the dominant white culture and media. Blacks have learned to take pride in their history and to defend themselves against white supremacist attacks from all directions.  But the ugly side of RBN must not go unopposed. The fight against white supremacy must be waged in a principled manner. While RBNs equate any strong criticism of them or their ideas with a threat to black unity, they often pose threats to the very unity they are seeking. For as Linda Harrison, writing in the February 2, 1969, issue of The Black Panther, related: "Cultural nationalists in their finery support many of the evils which have put them in the position of servitude." And while not a few Black Panthers held reactionary views of their own, their critique of RBN should not be dismissed or minimized.  Finally, the idea of a chosen people must always be opposed. As writer Greg Erwin has noted, "If you and your group are the epitome of all that is good, some other group is likely the epitome of all that is evil." And this simplistic dichotomy will ultimately produce more negative consequences than positive ones, as history clearly demonstrates.

Erasing whiteness through adherence to some absolutist project of rejection is impossible.  Pragmatic considerations which rearticulate equality from within whiteness must be combined with radical alternatives to have any hope of challenging white supremacy

Howard Winant, Behind Blue Eyes: Contemporary White Racial Politics,” New Left Review 225, Sept/Oct 1997, http://www.soc.ucsb.edu/faculty/winant/whitness.html

On the practical level, the argument goes

AND

you are" (Thompson 1995, 429)

1AC – Iran Advantage

US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed – both sides want to return to the table

ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

By the end of February, the crown

AND

chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.

Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable

Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html

The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini

AND

Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.

Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest to gain influence in Bahrain

ICG, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf

At a broader level, and though it

AND

Shiites will turn to Iran for support.153

Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the

AND

European and American national interests to do so.

Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

AND

people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

AND

complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves

Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

While U.S. and international attention

AND

national dialogue that charts the future of the country

Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in

Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm

This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian

AND

assuming anyone is left to write about it.

Saudi–Iran tensions escalate into a regional arms race

Bill Spindle, political analyst, and Margaret Coker, political analyst, 4-16-2011, “The New Cold War”, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html

For three months, the Arab world

AND

feel pressure to develop one of its own.

Middle East arms race destabilizes the region and causes nuclear war

Joseph Cirincione, fellow at the CAP, 8-21-2007, "The Middle East Nuclear Surge,"

Iran is still probably five to 10 years

AND

, this is a recipe for nuclear war.

Bahraini sectarian violence spills over to Saudi Arabia, triggering a US-Iran war

Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”

Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar

AND

to maintain stability but also their own power.

Iran war causes global nuclear war

Toff Daijgneault, staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Wars And Rumors of War---A Strategic View of Any Possible Future Western/israeli Military Strike in The Middle East,” Bukisa, http://www.bukisa.com/articles/369915_wars-and-rumors-of-war-a-strategic-view-of-any-possible-future-westernisraeli-military-strike-in-the-middle-east

Looking at any potential future strike against Iran

AND

would become dragged in as Iran's strategic partners.

US led dialogue creates credible reform and solves instability

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 6-29-2011, “Tensions in the Persian Gulf After the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/

Hans Hogrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain

AND

.S. approach is “critically important.”

1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

AND

to encourage his quest and hope for success.

US cooperation ensures no base kick out

Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

AND

to renew the American lease to the base.

Fifth fleet presence prevents Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – cuts off global oil supply

Stratfor, 7-1-2008, “Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”,

The U.S. Fifth Fleet insisted

AND

a summary of how it would play out.

US is key

Craig Cohen, associate vice president for research and programs at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6-2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” CSIS, http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

Beneath the surface, however, is an

AND

it in order to advance their own interests.

Threat perceptions mean Iran will close the strait

AFP, Agence France Press, 7-4-2011, “Iran ready to close strait of hormuz: general,” http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/iran-ready-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-general-2011-07-04-1.405814

Iran is ready if threatened to close the

AND

is now on our agenda," said Jafari.

Closing the Strait wrecks the global economy

Geoffrey Gresh, PhD candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter 2010, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 34. 1

Despite such a constricted and congested opening,

AND

.8 million barrels per day by 2030.

Econ decline causes war

Earl Tilford, PhD in history from George Washington University and served for thirty-two years as a military officer and analyst with the Air Force and Army, 2008, “Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship,” The Cedartown Standard, Lexis

Could it happen again? Bourgeois democracy requires

AND

world could devolve to that point very quickly.

Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities

Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause

AND

departure from previous policy than the author implies.

Bahrain is key – best position and infrastructure

Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission at U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, 10-23-2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

In concrete, practical terms, Bahrain’s port

AND

capabilities and through products and services procured locally.

US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

AND

often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

Bahraini government will listen to the US

Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the

AND

more possible in a more stable domestic environment.

1AC – Radicalization Advantage

Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions – reconciliation soon is key

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-2011, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain

The killing of a 14-year-

AND

entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.

US hypocrisy causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment

Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

Muslims see this narrative as being used to

AND

with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

Oppression in Bahrain causes regional radicalization

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

AND

many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons

Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/

Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The

AND

can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”

Nuclear terrorism causes the same causalities and full scale nuke war and nuclear winter

O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.

To an increasing extent, people are congregating

AND

well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Draws in Russia and China

Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

AND

might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Now key – encouraging reform solves terrorism

Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf

Paradoxically, the Arab Spring represents a strategic

AND

do all that it can to seize it.

Offering US mediation creates a legitimate dialogue, solving radicalization and stability

Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

While it may be possible for the US

AND

the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should provide assistance for mediation of a legal reform dialogue between the Bahraini monarchy and opposition group leaders.

Nowhere to move the fifth fleet

Omar Karmi, political analyst, 7-22-2011, “US denies any plan to move fifth fleet form Bahrian,” The National, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-denies-any-plan-to-move-fifth-fleet-from-bahrain

However, a State Department official yesterday also

AND

fleet of the size currently based in Manama.

Bahrain key to fifth fleet

Peter Goodspeed, political analyst, 2-14-2011, “Peter Goodspeed: Trouble in tiny Bahrain carries big implications,” National Post, http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-trouble-in-tiny-bahrain-carries-big-implications/

But if Bahrain were to undergo the kind

AND

or impose international sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.

Bahrain is the best location for the fifth fleet

Julian e. Barnes, political analyst, 2-18-2011, “U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base .,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html

Unrest in Bahrain is putting the future of

AND

demands to greater democracy for the majority Shiites.

2. we meet – dialogue is an instrument of democracy assistance

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization, p. 148

How difficult that is for them is shown

AND

to assess the conflict impact of their work.

Counter interpretation – democracy assistance is financial or technical assistance to support the following areas

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies, Carnegie endowment for international peace, 9-12-2011, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-again-same-email-template-as.html

There really is not a formal definition that

AND

intentionally assistance for the sake of building democracy.

We meet - Mediation is technical assistance

USAID, United States Agency for International Development, 3-31-2005, “USAID Alternative Dispute Resolution Activities In Latin America and the Caribbean,” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/latin_america_caribbean/democracy/adr/dg_conflict2a.html

The USAID democracy and governance program in Latin

AND

exchanges and with the input of mediation experts.

Inclusion of dialogue outweigh limits – key to aff solvency and policy effectiveness – otherwise it’s too hard to be aff

Carlos Santiso, PhD in political economy from Johns Hopkins and Sector manager and head of division at the African Development Bank, 2001, “Development Cooperation and the Promotion of Democratic Governance: Promises and Dilemmas,” International Politics and Society, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/ipg/ipg-2001-4/artsantiso.pdf

As emerging democracies battle through their unfinished transitions

AND

a cornerstone of development cooperation and aid effectiveness.

Debate should only include discussions that are policy relevant – their K self marginalizes itself out of politics and is therefore useless

Joseph Nye, professor at Harvard University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, 4-13-2009, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-09

President Obama has appointed some distinguished academic economists

AND

seem to be headed in the opposite direction.

Reality outweighs representations – Montezuma proves

Alexander Wendt, Professor of International Security at Ohio State University, 1999, “Social theory of international politics,” gbooks

The effects of holding a relational theory of

AND

mind-independent, extra-linguistic world.

DA isn’t inherently western and dialogue resolves the link

Gordon Crawford, professor of development politics at the University of Leeds, 2001, “Foreign Aid and Political reform: a comparative analysis of democracy assistance and political conditionality,”

Fifth, a related criticism of political aid

AND

book as a mechanism for resolving this contradiction.

Focus on proximate causes of war is key – root cause analysis of an over determined generalization

Scott D. Sagan – Department of Political Science, Stanford University – ACCIDENTAL WAR IN THEORY AND PRACTICE – 2000 – available via: www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/sagan.doc

To make reasonable judgements in such matters it

AND

neither inevitable nor overdetermined during the Cold War.

Imperialism doesn’t foster violent interventions

Martin Shaw , Professor of International Relations and Politics @  University of Sussex, April 2001 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State”, http://www.theglobalsite.ac.uk/press/212shaw.htm

Furthermore, Western leaders have consistently sought to

AND

movements, rather than from the Western state.

External influence is positive and perm solves

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization

There is a view that democracy and human

AND

and other quiet forms of ‘democracy diplomacy’.

Death outweighs

Paul Wapner, associate professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University. “Leftist Criticism of "Nature" Environmental Protection in a Postmodern Age,” Dissent Winter 2003 http://www.dissentmagazine.org/menutest/archives/2003/wi03/wapner.htm

All attempts to listen to nature are social

AND

intellectual insights and compromise their fundamental moral commitment.

Predictions are feasible. They can be made logically from empirical evidence.

Fred Chernoff, Prof. IR and Dir. IR – Colgate U., 2009, European Journal of International Relations, “Conventionalism as an Adequate Basis for Policy-Relevant IR Theory”, 15:1, Sage

For these and other reasons, many social

AND

conclusions should be evident from the foregoing discussion.

Pragmatic politics is key to check extinction – their alt cedes the political to the Right

Carl Boggs, Professor of Social Sciences at National University in Los Angeles, 1997, “The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America,” Theory and Society, Volume 26, Number 6, December, Springer

The decline of the public sphere in late

AND

interests that had vanished from civil society.75

Their politics fails – lack of a mechanism means they can’t convert theory into practice .

Richard Wyn Jones, 1999, “Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory,” ciao

Because emancipatory political practice is central to the

AND

thus that it is a fatally flawed enterprise.

Alt fails and causes terrorism

Democracy Digest, 9-9-2011, “Democracies must be ‘players, not spectators’ to assist Arab transitions,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/democracies-must-be-players-not-spectators-to-assist-arab-transitions/

Blair shares Margalit’s concern that the region’s revolutions

AND

to emerge as future leaders in emerging democracies.

No link between orientalist discourse and violence – their arguments mistake causation and correlation.

Andrew J. Rotter, prof at Colgate, 2000, "Saidism without said: orientalism and US diplomatic history" The American historical review, 105(4) p. 1208-1209

A third and yet more troubling problem for

AND

do with Moby Dick is less clear.8

Predictions are methodologically sound, reflexive, and increasingly accurate.

Ruud van der Helm, Dutch policy officer on instrument development in the Aid Effectiveness and Policy Department. Futures – Volume 41, Issue 2, Pages 67-116 (March 2009) – obtained via Science Direct

Futurists build and discuss statements on future states

AND

decision-making, or of collective action.  

Threats aren’t arbitrary – focus on personal perceptions can’t prevent objective threats – only concrete strategies cope with perceptions and material reality

Olav. F. Knudsen, Prof @ Södertörn Univ College, 2001, Security Dialogue 32.3, “Post-Copenhagen Security Studies: Desecuritizing  Securitization,” p. 360

 During the Cold War, peace research

AND

find adequate democratic procedures for dealing with them.

Obama’s spending his capital on jobs – he’s literally out stumping

Jonathan Cohn, 9-16-2011, “Obama Gets It. Do His Followers?” The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-cohn/95027/obama-jobs-bill-leadership-grassroots-business-support

So what’s Obama doing now? Exactly what

AND

believe they gain nothing by conceding ground now.

No capital – panic time

A.B. Stoddard, 9-16-2011, “Panic time for the White House,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/182027-panic-time-for-the-white-house

Does it get any worse than this for

AND

one remaining Democratic constituency group — loves him.

Obama already invested capital in the issue

Michael Allen, editor of Democracy Digest, 4-11-2011, “Revitalizing and rehabilitating democracy assistance?,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/revitalizing-and-rehabilitating-democracy-assistance/

She recently defended the Obama administration’s stance on

AND

agenda tarnished by association with the Iraq war.

DA has bipartisan support

Democracy Digest, 9-8-2011, “9/11 restored bipartisan consensus on strategic value of democracy assistance,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/911-restored-bipartisan-consensus-on-strategic-value-of-democracy-assistance/

“The terrorist attack of 9/11

AND

division here at home is worthy of note.”

Winners win

David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, 6-11-2010, “The Do-Nothing 44^th President,” http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html

Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and

AND

Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

Political capital is irrelevant

Matthew Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University, 5-26-2009, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics ,http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from here the path

AND

in the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee

Doesn’t solve the economy

Brett Neely, staff writer, 9-2-2011, “Payroll tax cut is likely topic for debate when Congress returns session,” http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/09/01/payroll-tax-cut-debate/

St. Paul, Minn. — Extending

AND

I'd much rather have a longer term solution."

Bahrain doesn’t care about the EU – activists want US action

Soraya Esfahani, political analyst, 5-14-2011, “Closed Kingdom,” Iranian, http://www.iranian.com/main/2011/may/closed-kingdom

Bahraini’s have been looking for moral support from

AND

long as its allies continue to support it.”

EU dialogue fails

Vincenzo Scarpetta, Open Europe analyst, and Pawel Swidlicki, open Europe analyst, 5-2011, “The EU and the Mediterranean: good neighbours?,” Open Europe, http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/enp2011.pdf

In addition to the Commission’s own relatively critical

AND

the EU has arguably ended up promoting neither.

EU fails – no regional leverage

Vincenzo Scarpetta, Open Europe analyst, and Pawel Swidlicki, open Europe analyst, 5-2011, “The EU and the Mediterranean: good neighbours?,” Open Europe, http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/enp2011.pdf

While it is clear that the EU needs

AND

for how the ENP can be better targeted:

Discourse doesn’t shape reality and punishing language undermines real social change

Matthew Roskoski and Joe Peabody, “A Linguistic and Philosophical Critique of Language ‘Arguments,’” 1991, http://debate.uvm.edu/Library/DebateTheoryLibrary/Roskoski&Peabody-LangCritiques, accessed 10/17/02

Previously, we have argued that the language

AND

about the underlying societal problem..." (560).

Counterplan causes fights which tank effectiveness

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization,

Nevertheless, in the eyes of some analysts

AND

organizations and states in the forefront of attention.

Policy analysis should precede discourse – most effective way to challenge power

Jill Taft-Kaufman, Speech prof @ CMU, 1995, Southern Comm. Journal, Spring, v. 60, Iss. 3, “Other Ways”, p pq

The postmodern passwords of "polyvocality," "

AND

agencies, and the budgets that fuel them.

Positivism is inevitable – without it we cant construct any theory – the possibility of some flawed theory construction is better than epistemological anarchy

Vernon Brown, student at Cadiff University, 2-27-2011, “The Reflectivist Critique of Positivist IR Theory,” E-IR, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=7328

There is a great deal of support for

AND

continually evolving, could provide the stability needed.

Debate should only include discussions that are policy relevant – their K self marginalizes itself out of politics and is therefore useless

Joseph Nye, professor at Harvard University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, 4-13-2009, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-09

President Obama has appointed some distinguished academic economists

AND

seem to be headed in the opposite direction.

DA isn’t inherently western and dialogue resolves the link

Gordon Crawford, professor of development politics at the University of Leeds, 2001, “Foreign Aid and Political reform: a comparative analysis of democracy assistance and political conditionality,”

Fifth, a related criticism of political aid

AND

book as a mechanism for resolving this contradiction.

External influence is positive and perm solves

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization

There is a view that democracy and human

AND

and other quiet forms of ‘democracy diplomacy’.

Policy debate over Bahrain is good – holds policy makers accountable for complicity in crackdown

Ben Winegard, graduate student in psychological sciences at the University of Missouri, and Cortne Jai Winegard, specialist in community development, 3-10-2011, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on US Imperial Policies,” Dissident Voice, http://dissidentvoice.org/2011/03/understanding-bahrain-how-bahrain-shines-a-light-on-us-imperial-policies

The future of Bahrain remains uncertain, while

AND

busy organizing. This much is our responsibility.

Role playing as public actors shatters apathy and political alienation which is critical to check inequality and exploitation

Gordon Mitchell, Associate Professor of Communication at University of Pittsburgh, Winter 2000, “Stimulated Public Argument As Pedagogical Play on Worlds”, Argumentation and Advocacy, vol 36, no 3, pq

When we assume the posture of the other

AND

students' self-identities carry significant emancipatory potential.

Policy making is inevitable – changing the world requires that we engage

Makani Themba-Nixon, Executive Director of The Praxis Project, Former California Staffer, Colorlines. Oakland: Jul 31, 2000.Vol.3, Iss. 2; pg. 12

The flourish and passion with which she made

AND

we must be committed to making it so.

Policy relevance solves Bush 3.0 – scholars need to speak the language of policy makers – key to public engagement, new perspectives, peace, and preventing imperialism.

Zachary Lockman is Chair of the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at New York University 2005 “Critique from the Right The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies” CR: The New Centennial Review 5.1 (2005) 63-110

It may be too soon to tell,

AND

many had mistakenly thought dead as a doornail.

Epistemology  is not a prerequisite 

David Owen, University of Southampton, July 2002, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism, and Practical Reasoning,” Millennium – Journal of International Studies, 31.3, p. 655-656

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

AND

only or even necessarily the most important kind.

Saudi DA

Relations resilient – security and energy interests trump democracy rhetoric

Joshua Teitelbaum, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern History, and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, at Bar-Ilan University, 7-17-2011, “Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives.html

So what’s going on here? Basically,

AND

of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Veto ends the relationship

Vincent Lauerman, Staff writer, 7-15-2011, “Perspective: Saudi Arabia’s Loveless Marriage,” Energy Compass, Lexis.

The US-Saudi strategic relationship is coming

AND

suffer the fate of the Shah of Iran."

Relations are resilient – only the US can provide military protection

Vincent Lauerman, Staff writer, 7-15-2011, “Perspective: Saudi Arabia’s Loveless Marriage,” Energy Compass, Lexis.

However, the US remains the sole military

AND

long way from making the leap into marriage.

Case turns DA – escalation in Bahrain collapses US-Saudi Relations

Bruce Riedel, former CIA officer and Senior Fellow in foreign policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, 9-2011, “Brezhnev in the Hejaz,” National Interest http://nationalinterest.org/article/brezhnev-the-hejaz-5733?page=3

In private, Washington needs to talk quietly

AND

Saudi alliance could well come to an end.

Resilient – Bahrain isn’t enough to crack it

Lucien Zeigler, staff writer, 3-17-2011, “Saudi-US Relationship Could Be Strengthened By Middle East Turmoil,” Arabianomics, http://arabianomics.com/2011/03/18/saudi-us-relationship-could-be-strengthened-by-middle-east-turmoil/

However there is a massive difference between short

AND

Gulf states for reasons more than private profit.

Disagreements blow over

Lucien Zeigler, staff writer, 3-17-2011, “Saudi-US Relationship Could Be Strengthened By Middle East Turmoil,” Arabianomics, http://arabianomics.com/2011/03/18/saudi-us-relationship-could-be-strengthened-by-middle-east-turmoil/

Disagreements, large and small, are healthy

AND

” should remain intact for years to come.

AT: DA = USAID

1.     We meet – USAID does mediation

USAID, United States Agency for International Development, 3-31-2005, “USAID Alternative Dispute Resolution Activities In Latin America and the Caribbean,” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/latin_america_caribbean/democracy/adr/dg_conflict2a.html

The USAID democracy and governance program in Latin

AND

exchanges and with the input of mediation experts.

No evidence USAID is the only agency

Counter interpretation – democracy assistance is financial or technical assistance to support the following areas

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies, Carnegie endowment for international peace, 9-12-2011, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-again-same-email-template-as.html

There really is not a formal definition that

AND

intentionally assistance for the sake of building democracy.

Counter-interp – substantial means “important”

Black's Law Dictionary, 6th Edition, 1990, p.1428

Of real worth and importance.

CP

Bahrain key to fifth fleet

Peter Goodspeed, political analyst, 2-14-2011, “Peter Goodspeed: Trouble in tiny Bahrain carries big implications,” National Post, http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-trouble-in-tiny-bahrain-carries-big-implications/

But if Bahrain were to undergo the kind

AND

or impose international sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.

Bahrain is the best location for the fifth fleet

Julian e. Barnes, political analyst, 2-18-2011, “U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base .,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html

Unrest in Bahrain is putting the future of

AND

threatens the entire structure of world oil markets."

Due to its location, the Bahrain base

AND

demands to greater democracy for the majority Shiites.

(  )  Strikes won’t solve Iranian proliferation – underground and redundant facilities

Anthony H. Cordesman, Chair in Strategy

AND

csis/pubs/060830_iranoptionssanctions.pdf

Tehran, however, has had a quarter

AND

to finish by June 1, 2006.6

(  )  Even if successful, strikes would lead to rapid re-nuclearization

Phillip Gordon, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy

AND

20-%20US%20EU%20Iran.pdf

As an alternative to simply accepting Iran’s nuclear

AND

U.S.-controlled airspace in Iraq.

 (  )  Iran strikes would fatally undermine U.S. credibility in the Muslim world

Justin Logan, Foreign Policy Analyst at Cato

AND

org/pubs/pas/pa583.pdf

The next unintended consequence would be the effect

AND

about U.S. intentions were correct.

Strikes would strengthen Iranian hardliners

Sammy Salama, senior Middle East Research Associate

AND

edu/pubs/week/040812.htm

An attack on Iran's nuclear facilities that are

AND

abandon their calls and protests for reform. >

A new regime will still pursue nuclear weapons

Cyrus Safdari, researcher and consultant, 11

AND

ca&ct=clnk&cd=1

Former US president Jimmy Carter once famously dismissed

AND

the US can only undermine its own interests.

Cp doesn’t solve Israel strike – just says the US strikes in the event of a conflict – Israel can still strike in world of no us-iran conflict

Isreal wouldn’t attack Iran: four reasons

Mahan Abedin is the editor of Terrorism Monitor

AND

 9/9/05

Israel likely does have a plan to destroy

AND

regarding American and Israeli motives have been vindicated.

Israel won’t strike alone

Yossi Melman, Nieman Fellow at Harvard and

AND

ac.il/jcss/haaretz300605.html

No official Israeli spokesperson will admit it,

AND

the international community to curb Iran's nuclear program.

Impact – Iran Strike causes nuclear escalation – ends the world

Jorge Hirsch, Professor of physics at the

AND

The U.S. has just declared

AND

made by each and every one of us.

Iran will trigger all-out regional war if attacked

Joe Gelman, President of the Civil Service

AND

Express, 6/11/07, nexis

“Iran will trigger all-out regional

AND

be blanketed with rockets, including Tel Aviv.

 (  )  Iran would retaliate against Israel through Hezbollah and terrorist proxies

Justin Logan, Foreign Policy Analyst at Cato

AND

org/pubs/pas/pa583.pdf

Another worry about a U.S.

AND

and threatened the survival of the Iranian regime.

(  )  Another Hezbollah-Israeli war leads to nuclear lash out

Joel Leyden, Israel News Agency, August

AND

Missiles Slam Hadera Israel - Nuclear War Approaching?

Tel Aviv----August 5......The only

AND

weapons to vaporize those who threaten our children.

Iran strikes spark terrorism and oil price spikes

Scott McConnel, Founder of the American Conservative, 3-27-2006, The American Conservative

<It’s not only Brownback. Robert Kagan

AND

the military option is a very poor one.

A strike causes wars globally and a Pakistani coup

Wayne Madsen, Senior Fellow at the Electronic

AND

uk/article.asp?ID=4002

Intelligence and military officials around the world are

AND

and Iran represents 17 percent of those imports].

Pakistani coup leads to India-Pakistan nuclear war

The Washington Post, 10/21/01

The prospect of Pakistan being taken over by

AND

of control and led to World War I.

Strikes kill U.S. leadership

Stephen Zunes, Fellow at Foreign Policy In

AND

www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3251

A U.S. air strike would

AND

not to proceed with the military option. >

(  )  Iran strikes kill Iranian democratization movements

Justin Logan, Foreign Policy Analyst at Cato

AND

org/pubs/pas/pa583.pdf

And finally, the effects that a U

AND

a war would do for Iranian liberalization.88

Iran strikes lead to World War III

John Stanton, writer specializing in political and

AND

www.counterpunch.org/stanton04242006.html

That attitude is indicative of an intellectually bankrupt

AND

-fed to supporters of an Iranian invasion.>

U.S. strike lead to massive oil price shocks, accelerated Iranian proliferation, and war

Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies at

AND

alt=&trh=20060418&hn=32162

Neither side is willing to back down and

AND

crisis and the risk of massive regional instabilities.

Iran attack leads to Iraq destabilization, oil shocks and global terrorism

International Crisis Group (ICG), 2-

AND

of_the_nuclear_impasse.pdf

Should it be attacked, Iran possesses a

AND

at least in the short-run.122

A US attack on Iran escalates to Middle East war

Youssef M. Ibrahim, a former senior

AND

, 8-25-2004, USA Today

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- This is

AND

, the Iranians prevailed. Saddam backed down.

A strike causes massive terrorism

Seymour Hersh, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist,

AND

fact/content/articles/060417fa_fact

Michel Samaha, a veteran Lebanese Christian politician

AND

, “The window of opportunity is now.”

Attack fails – no intelligence

International Crisis Group (ICG), 2-

AND

THERE A WAY OUT OF THE NUCLEAR IMPASSE?”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/

AND

of_the_nuclear_impasse.pdf

Western intelligence services lack basic information regarding the

AND

be full-scale war, not surgery.

Strikes fail

Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation

AND

army.mil/pdffiles/PUB629.pdf

As for eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities militarily,

AND

assuming its known declared nuclear plants were hit.

Iran could reconstruct its program rapidly

International Crisis Group (ICG), 2-

AND

THERE A WAY OUT OF THE NUCLEAR IMPASSE?”

http://www.crisisgroup.org/

AND

of_the_nuclear_impasse.pdf

Finally, while a raid likely would delay

AND

would redouble its efforts after a strike.123

No impact to Iranian proliferation—MAD solves

Borut Grgic, Director of the Institute for

AND

Gulf_New_Security_Balance.pdf

 Many political pundits and leaders in the

AND

underway that are aimed at reducing nuclear power.

5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

American maritime strategy has played a major role

AND

needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Naval power independently solves great power wars

James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf

Deter major power war. No other disruption

AND

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the larger picture

AND

the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Us presence inevitable – only a question of deterrence

Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, 12-2009, “Security Guarantees and Extended Deterrence in the Gulf Region: A European Perspective,” Strategic Insights, Volume VIII, Issue 5, http://www.nps.edu/Academics/centers/ccc/publications/OnlineJournal/2009/Dec/tertraisDec09.html

The requirements of deterrence and assurance may not

AND

abandonment” (for the protected).[1]

Political climate means no tech transition

Michael Feldman, editor of HPCWire, 12-9-2010, “The Gathering Storm, Five Years On,” , December 9, 2010]

But the toughest piece of the puzzle will

AND

Senate waiting for the lawmakers to take action.

Sea-basing links to presence turns

Sam Tangredi, regional director of Strategic Insight Ltd. And author of numerous articles on strategy and defense policy, Autumn 2011, “Sea Basing: Concepts, Issues, and Recommendations,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 64, No. 4 http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/d49d4281-7790-435d-9b3f-c7df59fb1544/Sea-Basing--Concept,-Issues,-and-Recommendations

The current Pentagon must deal with a quandary

AND

is unlikely to attract more than incremental investment.

Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities

Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause

AND

departure from previous policy than the author implies.

Oil markets can’t adapt to blocks in the Straits of Hormuz—price hikes would be inevitable

Eugene Gholz Associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, and Daryl Press, Associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, 2-2010, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest”, Security Studies, Vol. 19, No. 3

Note: Tables removed

Oil markets adjust to shocks, mitigating the

AND

military strategy to protect American oil interests.57

No support for seabasing transition

Sam Tangredi, regional director of Strategic Insight Ltd. And author of numerous articles on strategy and defense policy, Autumn 2011, “Sea Basing: Concepts, Issues, and Recommendations,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 64, No. 4 http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/d49d4281-7790-435d-9b3f-c7df59fb1544/Sea-Basing--Concept,-Issues,-and-Recommendations

However, tighter resource constraints usually bring out

AND

likely find sea basing on the short end.

Even if they win their fifth fleet bad arguments – in the short term, it is better to stay and maintain a balanced naval capability

Michael McDevitt, director, Strategic Studies, 2-2011, Center for Naval Analyses, Shrinking the Status-Quo Navy, Proceedings Magazine - February 2011 Vol. 137/2/1,296, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2011-02/strategic-choices-tipping-point,

The same sort of speculation about the future

AND

order to preserve as much balance as possible.

Pentagon wont support the transition

Thomas Lippman, MEI scholar, 9-22-2011, “the US dilemma in Bahrain,” POMED, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf

From a security perspective, it is just

AND

left with no choice given the current turmoil.

Nowhere to move the fifth fleet

Omar Karmi, political analyst, 7-22-2011, “US denies any plan to move fifth fleet form Bahrian,” The National, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-denies-any-plan-to-move-fifth-fleet-from-bahrain

However, a State Department official yesterday also

AND

a fleet of the size currently based in Manama

Thumpers

Deficit reduction strategy drains PC

Megan Mcardle, senior editor for the Atlantic, 9-20-2011, “Obama's Deficit Reduction: A Campaign Document, Not a Policy Plan,” The Atlantic,

Whatever your opinion about Republicans, the president

AND

billion out of the owners of corporate jets.

Scandals bring Obama down

Ed Farnan, staff writer, 9-26-2011, “Should President Obama stop campaigning and address the scandals?” The Irish Central, http://www.irishcentral.com/story/news/from-the-right/should-president-obama-stop-campaigning-and-address-the-scandals-130567743.html

It seems that President Obama just can't get

AND

administration that show their executives were hefty donors.

Wont go away – causes firestorm

Andrew Restuccia, staff writer, 9-25-2011, “GOP to sink its teeth deeper into Solyndra and White House,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay

House Republicans have sunk their teeth into the

AND

a July meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Obama PC loss inevitable – dems backlash or he loses capital for delay

Alana Goodman, staff writer, 9-26-2011, “Dems Holding Up Trade Deals?” Commentary, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/26/dems-trade-deals/

It’s been three months since Obama began urging

AND

, the more incompetent he’ll end up looking.

Obama only pushing Jobs bill and it thumps

Economic Times, 9-25-2011, “Congress likely to vote on US President Barack Obama's jobs bill in October,” http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-25/news/30200882_1_jobs-bill-david-plouffe-president-barack-obama

WASHINGTON: US President Barack Obama's administration is

AND

vote on the American Jobs Act in October."

Aid Now

65 million to Egypt civil society groups

Mary Beth Sheridan, staff writer, 9-24-2011, “Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries,” The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_singlePage.html

One of the most obvious areas in which

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going to groups not registered with the government.

Massive aid to Egypt

Esam Al-Amin, staff writer, 9-18-2011, “Three Big Challenges Threatening the Arab Uprisings,” Counterpunch, http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/09/16/three-big-challenges-threatening-the-arab-uprisings/

In its bill to fund US foreign assistance

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interference in the internal affairs of sovereign nations.

Obama already invested capital in the issue

Michael Allen, editor of Democracy Digest, 4-11-2011, “Revitalizing and rehabilitating democracy assistance?,” Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/revitalizing-and-rehabilitating-democracy-assistance/

She recently defended the Obama administration’s stance on

AND

agenda tarnished by association with the Iraq war.

Link Turn

DA has bipartisan support

Democracy Digest, 9-8-2011, “9/11 restored bipartisan consensus on strategic value of democracy assistance,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/911-restored-bipartisan-consensus-on-strategic-value-of-democracy-assistance/

“The terrorist attack of 9/11

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division here at home is worthy of note.”

Winners win

David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, 6-11-2010, “The Do-Nothing 44^th President,” http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html

Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and

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Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

PC not Key

Political capital is irrelevant

Matthew Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University, 5-26-2009, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics ,http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from here the path

AND

in the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee

Capital doesn’t spillover

Andrew Lee, The Rose Institute of State & Local Government – Claremont McKenna College, 2005 “Invest or Spend?:Political capital and Statements of Administration Policy in the First Term of the George W. Bush Presidency,” http://a-s.clayton.edu/trachtenberg/2005%20Proceedings%20Lee.pdf

Instead of investing political capital, the president

AND

the first Bush term’s adherence to this hypothesis.

Iran is trying to exploit the protests – empirically proven

Mitchell Belfer, editor of the Central European Journal of International and Security Studies at the Metropolitan University Prague, 10-6-2011, “Iran’s Bahraini Ambitions,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204612504576608852457881450.html

Today there is an intimidating imbalance of power

AND

calls for moderate reforms coming from immoderate ayatollahs.

Tensions are on the brink and Iran is getting desperate

Joe Klein, political analyst, 10-12-2011, “Iranamok Redux,” TIME, http://swampland.time.com/2011/10/12/iranamok-redux/#ixzz1absMtGVe

But it would be careless to merely write

AND

of a long shot in the Middle East.

Iran target the US in Bahrain

Jacques Neriah, special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2-20-2011, “Could the Kingdom of Bahrain Become an Iranian Pearl Harbor?,”

The Islamic Republic of Iran has reiterated in

AND

throughout the Persian Gulf and especially in Bahrain.

US reconciliation diffuses Iran-Saudi conflict

Mohsen M. Milani, Professor of Politics and Chair of the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida, 10-11-2011, “Iran and Saudi Arabia Square Off,” Foreign Affairs,

The Iranian-Saudi rivalry has also expanded

AND

from democracy, ultimately chilling the Arab Spring.

US engagement key to long term presence – solves Iran influence

Bruno de Paiva, analyst focusing on Geopolitics in Asia and Indian Ocean regions and North Korean issues, 10-21-2011, “Bahrain Significant To US Interests Despite Hold In Arms Sale,” Eurasia Review, http://www.eurasiareview.com/21102011-bahrain-significant-to-us-interests-despite-hold-in-arms-sale/

This, along with the perceived threat of

AND

country to address it’s interests in the region.

UAE real-estate collapse is empirically denied – next paragraph of their ev

Richard Nield, MEED correspondant, 6-19-2011, “Middle East Economic Review,” http://www.ameinfo.com/268494.html

Nonetheless, there are still vulnerabilities in the

AND

think we're anywhere near to prices picking up."

Oil prices swamp the link –

a) High prices inevitable

Colin Barr, 5-23-2011, “Why oil prices will spike again soon,” CNNMoney, http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/23/why-oil-prices-will-spike-again-soon/

Energy prices have been coming down this spring

AND

demand and, ultimately, higher oil prices.

b) Ensures UAE economy

Himendra Mohan Kumar, 10-30-2011, “Oiling the wheels of diversity,” Gulf News, http://gulfnews.com/business/oil-gas/oiling-the-wheels-of-diversity-1.920384

Despite efforts to diversify the UAE's sources of

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for the Ajman Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

UAE econ is resilient

Gulf News, 10-22-2011, “UAE’s resilience aids investors,” http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/uae-s-resilience-aids-investors-1.912297

UAE’s resilience aids investors Diversification policy enables nation

AND

by about 9 per cent, he said.

No PC

Phoebe Ash, staff writer, 10-14-2011, “Frozen Cred(ability), Loss of (Political) Capital,” Politic365,

Sure: it’s easy to blame Republicans for

AND

engage the president from here until November 2012.

No link – Bahrain funds assistance programs to the country—not the US

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 10-13-2011, “POMED Notes: Strengthening Arab Democracy: U.S. Assistance After the Uprisings,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/pomed-notes-strengthening-arab-democracy-u-s-assistance-after-the-uprisings.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

Campbell began by noting that with regards to

AND

freedom of association” and “electoral reform.”

No link – executive does it

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

The administration has wisely budgeted for further unexpected

AND

Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

Aid now – Libya

POMED, 10-18-2011, “Libya: Clinton to Meet and Offer Aid Package to Leaders ,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/libya-clinton-to-meet-and-offer-aid-package-to-leaders.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29#.Tp2woWvzoa8

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Tripoli

AND

missing amid the chaos of recent fighting. ”

No risk of trade war

Paul Krugman, professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University, 9-30-2010, “Taking On China,” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/opinion/01krugman.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

But serious people, who have been wrong

AND

long last, they are ready to act.

Boehner will never support the China bill ever, period

Corey Boles, 10-4-2011, “Boehner: China Currency Bill,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111004-709539.html

House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio

AND

its chances of being approved by the House.

Oppression in Bahrain causes sectarian tensions to flare

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

AND

many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Sectarianism causes instability and draws in Pakistan

M.K.Bhadrakumar , diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service and Asia Times contributor, 3-30-2011, “Pakistan skating on thin Bahraini Ice,” Diplomatic Perspectivehttp://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/pakistan-skating-on-thin-bahraini-ice.html

Bahrain and its mentors in Riyadh have every

AND

tiny Bahrain is one of the more momentous".

That causes Pakistan-Iran war

James Kurth, Claude Smith Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore, Fall 2005, “Global Threats and American Strategies: From Communism in 1955 to Islamism in 2005, Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www.fpri.org/orbis/4904/kurth.globalthreats.pdf

The remaining splitting strategy (Sunnis vs.

AND

events that have acutely concentrated the strategic mind.

Causes extinction

Alexis Madrigal, Energy Science Tech and Journalist, 4-7-2008, Wired, “Regional Nuclear War Would Cause Worldwide Destruction,” http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/regional-nuclea.html

Imagine that the long-simmering conflict between

AND

and on the structure of the atmosphere itself.

Pakistan-is actively supporting Bahraini and Saudi forces in the crackdown

UPI, 8-22-2011, “Pakistan extends influence in gulf states ,” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/08/22/Pakistan-extends-influence-in-gulf-states/UPI-58671314030630/

Pakistan has also rushed to the defense of

AND

no mean feat today given their adversarial positions."

Continued Pakistan involvement collapses Pakistan-Iran relations

VOA, 8-21-2011, “Pakistani Veterans Beef Up Bahrain Security Forces: VOA,” http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&Id=260993

"Many of these Sunni Pakistani troops,

AND

Pakistani-Iranian relations if the recruitment continued.

That’s key to Pakistan-Iran pipeline

Politact, 4-2-2011, “The Impact of Middle East Situation On Pakistan-Iran Relations and Afghanistan,” http://politact.com/analysis-of-perception-and-perspective/the-impact-of-middle-east-situation-on-pakistan-iran-relations-and-afghanistan.html

Turmoil in Bahrain’s led to Saudi led Gulf

AND

by making matters worse in the AfPak region.

Pipeline solves Sino-Russian energy conflict

Richard Rousseau, Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan, 6-24-2011, “Pipeline Politics in Central Asia,” Foreign Policy in Focus, http://www.fpif.org/articles/pipeline_politics_in_central_asia

Although China may tap into various other energy

AND

China, India, Pakistan, and Iran.

High risk of energy conflict – accidents and competing interests

Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, 5-19-2008, “The New Geopolitics of Energy,” http://www.thenation.com/article/new-geopolitics-energy

These and other efforts by Russia and China

AND

and a better chance at overcoming global warming.

Russia-China war goes nuclear

Alexander Sharavin, 10-3-2001, Defense and Security

Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us skyscrapers

AND

the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.

Pipeline solves Indo-Pak war

Rizwan Zeb, Senior analyst at the Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad, 11-16-2005, “Does the Iran-India-Pakistan Pipeline Have a Future?” Central Asia Caucasus Institute, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/3551/print

Apart from the fact that the IPI pipeline

AND

this objective – at least on this theatre.

High risk – miscalc and no deterrence

Paul Kapur, visiting scholar at Stanford Unviersity’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, Fall 2005, “India and Pakistan's Unstable Peace: Why Nuclear South Asia Is Not Like Cold War Europe,” International Security, muse

Proliferation optimists claim that nuclear weapons had a

AND

Such developments may lead to future regional instability.

India Pakistan conflict ensures extinction

Ghulam Nabi Fai, Kashmiri American Council, July 8, 2001, Washington Times

The foreign policy of the United States in

AND

impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.

Piracy – Economy

Fifth Fleet leads international anti-piracy force and deters piracy in the Straits of Hormuz

CBS News 9-7-2010, “U.S. To Lead Anti-Piracy Naval Patrols”, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/08/world/main4708429.shtml

A new international naval force under American command

AND

continue until their networks and bases are hit."

Piracy will collapse the global economy

Jerusalem Post 2008, “Column One: Civilization walks the plank,” http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1226404794131&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Piracy is fast emerging as the newest old

AND

$1.5 trillion in cargo annually.

Economic decline causes war

Sean O’Donnell, staff writer, 2-26-2009, “Will this recession lead to World War III?,” Baltimore Republican Examiner, http://www.examiner.com/republican-in-baltimore/will-this-recession-lead-to-world-war-iii

Could the current economic crisis affecting this country

AND

is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.

BMD – Add On

Naval BMD in the Gulf key to deter Iranian missiles—prevents Israel strikes

Goure and Grant 9—Daniel, PhD, former Deputy Director of the International Security Program at the CSIS, and Rebecca, PhD, "US Naval Options for Influencing Iran", Lexington Institute, Report under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf

Iran also is seeking to develop a credible

AND

ships armed with an insufficient quantity of missiles.

Israel strikes cause nuclear WWIII

Reuveny 10—Rafael, PhD, Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University, "Unilateral Strike on Iran could trigger world Depression",op-ed distributed through McClatchy Newspaper Co, http://www.indiana.edu/~spea/news/speaking_out/reuveny_on_unilateral_strike_Iran.shtml

A unilateral Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities

AND

forces on nuclear alert, replaying Nixon’s nightmarish scenario

Oil Shocks – Price Shocks

Closing the Strait causes oil spikes

Eugene Gholz Associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, and Daryl Press, Associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, 2-2010, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest”, Security Studies, Vol. 19, No. 3

Note: Tables removed

Oil markets adjust to shocks, mitigating the

AND

military strategy to protect American oil interests.57

Oil shocks risk extinction

Roberts 04 (Paul, Regular Contributor to Harpers and NYT Magazine, “The End of Oil: On The Edge of a Perilous New World”, p. 93-94)

The obsessive focus on oil is hardly surprising

AND

and simple survival than terrorism or even war.

5^th fleet key to SLOCs

Daniel Goure, vice president with the Lexington Institute, and Rebecca Grant, senior fellow at the Lexington Institute, 2009 “US Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” US Naval War College Review, http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/c866a012-4a28-4627-86f8-38d0b627e710/U-S--Naval-Options-for-Influencing-Iran---Daniel-G

Cooperation involves far more than simply hosting American

AND

of commerce into and out of the region.

Global nuclear war

Reynolds B. Peele, Lieutenant – United States Marine Corps, 1997, “The Importance of Maritime Chokepoints”, Parameters, Summer, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/Articles/97summer/peele.htm

There are presently six significant regional economic and

AND

US security and economic interests can be protected.

Their politics fails – lack of a mechanism means they can’t convert theory into practice[AZ1] .

Richard Wyn Jones, 1999, “Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory,” ciao

Because emancipatory political practice is central to the

AND

thus that it is a fatally flawed enterprise.

Focus on proximate causes not root causes – causality can only be determined in specific instances not in the abstract – history proves you can’t manipulate root causes.

Fred Hutchison, CPA and MBA, Staff writer for Renew America, 3-22-2004, “American innovation and the culture war: A golden age of American innovation,” http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/hutchison/040322

Reductionist ideas reduce (hu)man(

AND

zombies or maniacs — and return to adolescence.

Assistance isn’t inherently orientalist and dialogue resolves the link

Gordon Crawford, professor of development politics at the University of Leeds, 2001, “Foreign Aid and Political reform: a comparative analysis of democracy assistance and political conditionality,”

Fifth, a related criticism of political aid

AND

book as a mechanism for resolving this contradiction.

Our scholarship is accurate – their evidence suffers from selection bias

Josh Teitelbaum and Meir Litvak, senior fellows and profs @ Tel Aviv, March 2006, “Students, Teachers, and Edward Said,” MERIA, 10.1

The critics did not deny that Western culture

AND

rich and multi- faceted over the years.

Focus on consequences

Jeffrey Isaac, James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life at Indiana University, Bloomington, Spring 2002, Dissent, vol. 49, no. 2

As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max

AND

never be mistaken for a serious political commitment.

Intervention is necessary to prevent slaughter – it doesn’t create a universalized norm of imposing all values or further violence

Jean Bethke Elshtain, Prof. Social and Politics Ethics, U. Chicago, and Chair in Foundations of American Freedom – Georgetown U., American Behavioral Scientist, May, 2008, “Etzioni on Religion: Challenging the Warrior/Preacher’ Faultline”, 51:9, May.

What does security first entail? Etzioni answers

AND

be an outgrowth of security first will follow.

Pressure CP – 2AC

Mediation key

Katja Niethammer, Post Doctoral Fellow at the Center for International and Regional Studies at Georgetown university, 2006, “Voices in parliament, debates in Majalis, and banners on streets: avenues of political participation in Bahrain,” Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/WP-Texts/06_27.pdf

Fronts being thus hardened, bargaining between the

AND

a lot smaller numerically than the Islamists’).74

Pressure bad:

1. Triggers base kickout

Marina Ottaway, Analyst @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 4-4-2011 “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43416

But U.S. concerns in dealing

AND

States once again siding with an autocratic regime.

They’ll side with Saudi Arabia over the US

Doyle McManus, Washington Columnist for the LA Times, 2-20-2011, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220

The United States has less leverage in Bahrain

AND

between periods of modest liberalization and harsh repression.

2. Even if they do get a dialogue, it fails without the US

Dr. A. A. Mohamoud, Founding Director of Sahan Consultancy, Researcher in Postconflict Development,2005, “The Role Of Constitution-Building Processes In Democratization, Case Study, Bahrain,” http://www.idea.int/cbp/upload/CBP_Bahrain.pdf

The foremost challenge to be addressed is the

AND

organisations like IDEA can play a significant role.

3. Strengthens Hardliners

Stephen King, Assoc. Prof of Government & Georgetown University, 5-10-2011, “Constitutional Monarchy Option In Morocco And Bahrain – Analysis,” Constitutional Monarchy Option In Morocco And Bahrain – Analysis, MEI,

http://www.eurasiareview.com/

AND

-and-bahrain-analysis-10052011/

The Iran factor also adds to the regional

AND

the ones pushed in the region’s authoritarian republics.

4. Causes Iran to attack the US

Jacques Neriah, Special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2-21-2011, “Bahrain: A Middle East Political Earthquake” http://thesop.org/story/20110221/bahrain-a-middle-east-political-earthquake.html

The U.S. has every reason

AND

in Bahrain and possibly in eastern Saudi Arabia.

CP links to politics

Nick Turse, fellow at Harvard’s Radcliffe Institute, 5-17-2011, “Obama's Reset: Arab Spring or Same Old Thing?” The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/article/160710/obamas-reset-arab-spring-or-same-old-thing

The agreement to broker the sale of tens

AND

to the Pentagon and its weapons-makers.

Total abandonment of the monarchy freaks out allies – engagement is the best option

Thomas Fuller, political analyst, 3-4-2011, “Bahrainis Fear the U.S. Isn’t Behind Their Fight for Democracy,” NYT

AND

[]

As soon as it looks like the U

AND

, it will come in the coming years.”

That causes regional wars and proliferation – US moderation solves

Nick Ottens, political analyst, 10-2-2010, “How to Contain Iran,” Atlantic Sentinel, http://atlanticsentinel.com/2010/10/how-to-contain-iran/

Writing for The Daily Star, Ramzy Mardini

AND

Obama Administration revived earlier this month are vital.  

a) High prices inevitable

Colin Barr, 5-23-2011, “Why oil prices will spike again soon,” CNNMoney, http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/23/why-oil-prices-will-spike-again-soon/

Energy prices have been coming down this spring

AND

demand and, ultimately, higher oil prices.

No global economic collapse and it wouldn’t cause conflict

Daniel Drezner, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, 8-12-2011, “Please come down off the ledge, dear readers,” Foreign polivy, http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/

So, when we last left off this

AND

we've got, that's not going to happen.

The economy is resilient – Great Power peace, declining inflation and tech connectivity

Fareed Zakaria, Editor of Newsweek International, 12-21-2009, “The Secrets of Stability,” Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425

Others predicted that these economic shocks would lead

AND

their fortunes are not entirely dependent on it. 

Saudi Arabia already increased spening – no brink

Bahraini violence spills over to Saudi Arabia turns the da

Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”

Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar

AND

to maintain stability but also their own power.

Aff:Whitman HZ

Round #7   Tournament: Shirley

vs:Emory AM

Judge:Steve Pointer

Plan Text

The USFG should provide assistance for mediation for a legal reform dialogue between the Bahraini monarchy and opposition group members.

1ac Advantages

Iran

Pakistan

Fifth Fleet

2ac Offense

SLOCS add on

Cred add on

1ar Strategy

Answered arguments

2ar Strategy

Aff better than CP 

Protests are political not economic

POMED, 10-5-2011, “POMED Notes: “Bahrain: The Forgotten Uprising in the Arab Spring” ,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/pomed-notes-bahrain-the-forgotten-uprising-in-the-arab-spring.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

Al-Khawaja then spoke about Bahraini discourse

AND

of the economic disruption sparked by the uprising.

Bahrain protests are political – not economic

Justin Gengler, PhD at the University of Michigan focusing on Bahrain, 9-10-2011, “An Introduction to Bahrain: The dysfunctional Rentier State,”http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jgengler/docs/diss/Dissertation%20-%20Chapter%201.pdf

In the ethnically-divided rentier state,

AND

of this is political, not financial.” 31AC – Iran Advantage

US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed – both sides want to return to the table

ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

By the end of February, the crown

AND

chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.

Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable

Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html

The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini

AND

Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.

Continued violence causes the opposition to turn to Iran – only dialogue can prevent

Democracy Digest, 11-10-2011, “Bahrain needs anti-sectarian social compact,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/bahrain-needs-anti-sectarian-social-compact/

Sectarianism has “dramatically eroded [Bahrain’s]

AND

they will surely be greeted with open arms.”

Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the

AND

European and American national interests to do so.

Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

AND

people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

AND

complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves

Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

While U.S. and international attention

AND

national dialogue that charts the future of the country

Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in

Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm

This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian

AND

assuming anyone is left to write about it.

High risk

James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

AND

, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Bahraini sectarian violence spills over to Saudi Arabia, triggering a US-Iran war

Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”

Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar

AND

to maintain stability but also their own power.

Iran war causes global nuclear war

Toff Daijgneault, staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Wars And Rumors of War---A Strategic View of Any Possible Future Western/israeli Military Strike in The Middle East,” Bukisa, http://www.bukisa.com/articles/369915_wars-and-rumors-of-war-a-strategic-view-of-any-possible-future-westernisraeli-military-strike-in-the-middle-east

Looking at any potential future strike against Iran

AND

would become dragged in as Iran's strategic partners.

US led dialogue creates credible reform and solves instability

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 6-29-2011, “Tensions in the Persian Gulf After the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/

Hans Hogrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain

AND

.S. approach is “critically important.”

1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

AND

to encourage his quest and hope for success.

US cooperation ensures no base kick out

Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

AND

to renew the American lease to the base.

US is key

Craig Cohen, associate vice president for research and programs at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6-2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” CSIS, http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

Beneath the surface, however, is an

AND

it in order to advance their own interests.

Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities

Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause

AND

departure from previous policy than the author implies.

No alternative – Bahrain is key

David Dietz, political analyst, 4-21-2011, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/

Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the

AND

as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi.

5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

American maritime strategy has played a major role

AND

needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Naval power independently solves great power wars

James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf

Deter major power war. No other disruption

AND

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the larger picture

AND

the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

AND

often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

Bahraini government will listen to the US

Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the

AND

more possible in a more stable domestic environment.

1AC Pakistan Adv

Offering US mediation creates a legitimate dialogue, solving sectarianism and stability

Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

While it may be possible for the US

AND

the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

Oppression in Bahrain causes sectarian tensions to flare

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

AND

many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Sectarianism causes instability and draws in Pakistan

M.K.Bhadrakumar , diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service and Asia Times contributor, 3-30-2011, “Pakistan skating on thin Bahraini Ice,” Diplomatic Perspectivehttp://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/pakistan-skating-on-thin-bahraini-ice.html

Bahrain and its mentors in Riyadh have every

AND

tiny Bahrain is one of the more momentous".

That causes Pakistan-Iran war

James Kurth, Claude Smith Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore, Fall 2005, “Global Threats and American Strategies: From Communism in 1955 to Islamism in 2005, Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www.fpri.org/orbis/4904/kurth.globalthreats.pdf

The remaining splitting strategy (Sunnis vs.

AND

events that have acutely concentrated the strategic mind.

Causes extinction

Alexis Madrigal, Energy Science Tech and Journalist, 4-7-2008, Wired, “Regional Nuclear War Would Cause Worldwide Destruction,” http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/regional-nuclea.html

Imagine that the long-simmering conflict between

AND

and on the structure of the atmosphere itself.

Pakistan-is actively supporting Bahraini and Saudi forces in the crackdown

UPI, 8-22-2011, “Pakistan extends influence in gulf states ,” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/08/22/Pakistan-extends-influence-in-gulf-states/UPI-58671314030630/

Pakistan has also rushed to the defense of

AND

no mean feat today given their adversarial positions."

Continued Pakistan involvement collapses Pakistan-Iran relations

VOA, 8-21-2011, “Pakistani Veterans Beef Up Bahrain Security Forces: VOA,” http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&Id=260993

"Many of these Sunni Pakistani troops,

AND

Pakistani-Iranian relations if the recruitment continued.

That’s key to Pakistan-Iran pipeline

Politact, 4-2-2011, “The Impact of Middle East Situation On Pakistan-Iran Relations and Afghanistan,” http://politact.com/analysis-of-perception-and-perspective/the-impact-of-middle-east-situation-on-pakistan-iran-relations-and-afghanistan.html

Turmoil in Bahrain’s led to Saudi led Gulf

AND

by making matters worse in the AfPak region.

Pipeline solves Sino-Russian energy conflict

Richard Rousseau, Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan, 6-24-2011, “Pipeline Politics in Central Asia,” Foreign Policy in Focus, http://www.fpif.org/articles/pipeline_politics_in_central_asia

Although China may tap into various other energy

AND

China, India, Pakistan, and Iran.

High risk of energy conflict – accidents and competing interests

Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, 5-19-2008, “The New Geopolitics of Energy,” http://www.thenation.com/article/new-geopolitics-energy

These and other efforts by Russia and China

AND

and a better chance at overcoming global warming.

Russia-China war goes nuclear

Alexander Sharavin, 10-3-2001, Defense and Security

Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us skyscrapers

AND

the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.

Pipeline solves Indo-Pak war

Rizwan Zeb, Senior analyst at the Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad, 11-16-2005, “Does the Iran-India-Pakistan Pipeline Have a Future?” Central Asia Caucasus Institute, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/3551/print

Apart from the fact that the IPI pipeline

AND

this objective – at least on this theatre.

High risk – miscalc and no deterrence

Paul Kapur, visiting scholar at Stanford Unviersity’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, Fall 2005, “India and Pakistan's Unstable Peace: Why Nuclear South Asia Is Not Like Cold War Europe,” International Security, muse

Proliferation optimists claim that nuclear weapons had a

AND

Such developments may lead to future regional instability.

India Pakistan conflict ensures extinction

Ghulam Nabi Fai, Kashmiri American Council, July 8, 2001, Washington Times

The foreign policy of the United States in

AND

impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.

The United States federal government should provide assistance for mediation for a legal reform dialogue between the Bahraini monarchy and opposition group leaders.

Iran Adv

Tensions are on the brink and Iran is getting desperate

Joe Klein, political analyst, 10-12-2011, “Iranamok Redux,” TIME, http://swampland.time.com/2011/10/12/iranamok-redux/#ixzz1absMtGVe

But it would be careless to merely write

AND

of a long shot in the Middle East.

Empirically – Saudi opposition is posturing, they won’t block

Gulf Roundtable, 11 – primarily quoting Kristin Smith Diwan, an assistant professor of comparative and regional studies at the American University’s School of International Service, and Frederic Wehrey, a senior policy analyst at RAND Corporation (“Eyes on Bahrain,” 3/8, http://csis.org/files/publication/110225_Summary_Wehrey_Diwan.pdf)

Saudi involvement is one of the most important

AND

attempted to integrate parts of the Bahraini opposition.

Saudi Arabia wont confront the US over Bahrain

Lucien Zeigler, staff writer, 3-17-2011, “Saudi-US Relationship Could Be Strengthened By Middle East Turmoil,” Arabianomics, http://arabianomics.com/2011/03/18/saudi-us-relationship-could-be-strengthened-by-middle-east-turmoil/

However there is a massive difference between short

AND

Gulf states for reasons more than private profit.

Pakistan Adv

Pakistan wont bow to US pressure

Asia Times, 7-12-2011, “Why Pakistan Isn't the Slightest Bit Scared by Washington's Threat to Cut off the Aid Supply,” http://www.alternet.org/world/151619/why_pakistan_isn%27t_the_slightest_bit_scared_by_washington%27s_threat_to_cut_off_the_aid_supply/?page=2

What IP will do is to embolden Islamabad

AND

bound to rattle too many nerves in Islamabad.

Solvency

Reform is possible – hardliners are losing power

Simeon Kerr, political analyst, 7-1-2011, “Bahrain opposition agrees to join talks,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5f8e5020-a416-11e0-8b4f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1U5eMlvO5

Bahrain’s allies, including the US, have

AND

the very few initiated by an Arab state.

Bahraini leaders will listen to the US

Kristen Chick, political analyst, 4-15-2011, “Bahrain backs off plan to ban opposition after US criticism,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0415/Bahrain-backs-off-plan-to-ban-opposition-after-US-criticism

Bahrain has backed off its move to dissolve

AND

kingdom despite its acquiescence to Saudi interests there. 

Protests are political not economic

POMED, 10-5-2011, “POMED Notes: “Bahrain: The Forgotten Uprising in the Arab Spring” ,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/pomed-notes-bahrain-the-forgotten-uprising-in-the-arab-spring.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

Al-Khawaja then spoke about Bahraini discourse

AND

of the economic disruption sparked by the uprising.

Bahrain protests are political – not economic

Justin Gengler, PhD at the University of Michigan focusing on Bahrain, 9-10-2011, “An Introduction to Bahrain: The dysfunctional Rentier State,”http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jgengler/docs/diss/Dissertation%20-%20Chapter%201.pdf

In the ethnically-divided rentier state,

AND

of this is political, not financial.” 3

NGO aid fails – Depoliticized, excludes important civil society actors, tied to donor views, lack representativeness, urban – Undercuts membership

Rachner et al. 7 (Lise –

AND

-and-the-challenges-of)

However, donor support during this period faced

AND

other significant agents of social and political change.

NGOs delegitimize democracy movements

Carothers 9 (Thomas, vp for the

AND

Carothers-20-1.pdf) JJN

Politically based approaches have for decades largely bounced

AND

such a force is always present, however.

Reform without US mediation jacks democracy—refuels the crisis

Dr. A. A. Mohamoud, Founding Director of Sahan Consultancy, Researcher in Postconflict Development,2005, “The Role Of Constitution-Building Processes In Democratization, Case Study, Bahrain,” http://www.idea.int/cbp/upload/CBP_Bahrain.pdf

The foremost challenge to be addressed is the

AND

organisations like IDEA can play a significant role.

we meet – dialogue is an instrument of democracy assistance

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization, p. 148

How difficult that is for them is shown

AND

to assess the conflict impact of their work.

Counter interpretation – democracy assistance is financial or technical assistance to support the following areas

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies, Carnegie endowment for international peace, 9-12-2011, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-again-same-email-template-as.html

There really is not a formal definition that

AND

intentionally assistance for the sake of building democracy.

We meet - Mediation is technical assistance

USAID, United States Agency for International Development, 3-31-2005, “USAID Alternative Dispute Resolution Activities In Latin America and the Caribbean,” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/latin_america_caribbean/democracy/adr/dg_conflict2a.html

The USAID democracy and governance program in Latin

AND

exchanges and with the input of mediation experts.

DA can be grounded in the means employed, the objectives, or the motives – explicit focus on objectives not key

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University,, 9-12-2011, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-again-same-email-template-as.html

Ultimately you have to make your own choice

AND

national security or national commercial gain; etc)..

DA includes reform minded dialogue

Carlos Santiso, PhD in political economy from Johns Hopkins and Sector manager and head of division at the African Development Bank, 2002, “Promoting Democracy by Conditioning Aid,” International Politics and Society, http://www.fes.de/ipg/ONLINE3_2002/Artsantiso.pdf

The overarching ec democracy assistance strategy has been

AND

apply conditionality in order to really further democratization.

Democracy doesn’t have to be the only goal

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization,

Additionally, within a post-conflict context

AND

such as Saudi Arabia, China and Egypt .

Err aff – terms are interchangeable – makes it hard to define

Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization

Variously called democracy assistance, democracy-related

AND

but now sport new labels like democracy assistance.

Democracy assistance includes conflict resolution

Leslie Campbell, senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north

Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States, Summer 2010, “Party-building in the

Middle East,” International Journal, http://

AND

Party_Building_MENA_Campbell.pdf

Operating in this environment has required creativity and

AND

political participation, and domestic election monitoring. 5

1AC – Radicalization Advantage

Inherency

Even after the BICI report the Bahraini monarchy has failed to reform causing a spike in violence and anti-americanism

Justin Gengler, PhD from UMich focusing on Bahrain, 1-1-2012, “Why 2012 Will Be a Lot Like 2011,” Religion and Politics, http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/why-2012-will-be-lot-like-2011.html

The launching of the website comes at a

AND

Sitra now refer to the "Great Satan."

Currently the monarchy is attacking Bahraini civil society – US action is necessary to solve

Rasika Teredesai, Legal Fellow, Human Rights Defenders Program, 12-22-2011, “Organizations Targeted by Bahrain’s Repression,” Human Rights First, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/22/organizations-targeted-by-bahrain%E2%80%99s-repression/

The government of Bahrain continues to interfere in

AND

be rewarded with an arms sale and US encouragement

Iran

Continued violence causes the opposition to seek Iranian backing – only reform can prevent their involvement

Democracy Digest, 11-10-2011, “Bahrain needs anti-sectarian social compact,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/bahrain-needs-anti-sectarian-social-compact/

Sectarianism has “dramatically eroded [Bahrain’s]

AND

they will surely be greeted with open arms.”

Only US engagement prevents radicalization and a turn towards Iran

Andrew Terrill, security analyst at the Strategic Studies Institute, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain

The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after

AND

for anti-regime activity by illegal means.

Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

AND

people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

AND

complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war

Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

While U.S. and international attention

AND

national dialogue that charts the future of the country

Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in

Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm

This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian

AND

assuming anyone is left to write about it.

Pakistan

Oppression in Bahrain causes sectarian tensions to flare

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

AND

many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Sectarianism causes instability and draws in Pakistan

M.K.Bhadrakumar , diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service and Asia Times contributor, 3-30-2011, “Pakistan skating on thin Bahraini Ice,” Diplomatic Perspectivehttp://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/pakistan-skating-on-thin-bahraini-ice.html

Bahrain and its mentors in Riyadh have every

AND

tiny Bahrain is one of the more momentous".

That causes Pakistan-Iran war

James Kurth, Claude Smith Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore, Fall 2005, “Global Threats and American Strategies: From Communism in 1955 to Islamism in 2005, Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www.fpri.org/orbis/4904/kurth.globalthreats.pdf

The remaining splitting strategy (Sunnis vs.

AND

events that have acutely concentrated the strategic mind.

Causes extinction

Alexis Madrigal, Energy Science Tech and Journalist, 4-7-2008, Wired, “Regional Nuclear War Would Cause Worldwide Destruction,” http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/regional-nuclea.html

Imagine that the long-simmering conflict between

AND

and on the structure of the atmosphere itself.

Pakistan-is actively supporting Bahraini and Saudi forces in the crackdown

UPI, 8-22-2011, “Pakistan extends influence in gulf states ,” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/08/22/Pakistan-extends-influence-in-gulf-states/UPI-58671314030630/

Pakistan has also rushed to the defense of

AND

no mean feat today given their adversarial positions."

1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

Inherency

Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

AND

to encourage his quest and hope for success.

US engagement ensures no base kick out

Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

AND

to renew the American lease to the base.

Naval Power

5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

American maritime strategy has played a major role

AND

needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Even the perception of kickout kills credibility

Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-2006, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Thomas

AND

furthers diplomatic initiatives and contributes to economic development.

Naval power independently solves great power wars

James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf

Deter major power war. No other disruption

AND

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the larger picture

AND

the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

No one can fill in for US naval power

Daniel Whiteneck et al, Research Analyst for NATO, Michael Price, Neil Jenkins, Peter Swartz, 3-2010, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?”, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf

Second, no other country (or combination

AND

deplete their resources and political support at home.

1AC – Solvency

Only the US can produce change in Bahrain – perception that we support the opposition is key

Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 12-1-2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” National Endowment for Democracy, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac

Regrettably, though, Bahrain is not now

AND

can and should respond in a constructive way.

US support for civil society causes successful BICI implementation and long term reforms

Niccolo' Figa-Talamanca, Secretary-General of No Peace Without Justice, 11-22-2011, “Bahrain: one step forward or two steps back?,” No Peace Without Justice, http://www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html

How the report turns out, and the

AND

for ensuring acknowledgement and justice for the victims.

Implementing BICI recommendations is a critical first step towards reconciliation

Harold Walker, former British Ambassador to Bahrain,  former Chairman of the Royal Society of Asian Affairs and former Chairman of the British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, 12-6-2011, “Bahrain after the BICI,” Conservative Middle East Council, http://cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/

These truths matter. In April the American

AND

than reflecting the nature of the ruling regime.

The US must act as a neutral brokers to create reconciliation

POMED, 12-2-2011, “POMED Notes: “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” http://bahrainrights.org/en/node/4878

On Thursday, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted

AND

suggested might be accomplished by releasing political prisoners.

Without US action the opposition will discredit the reforms – US support gives the King credibility and prevents anti-americanism

William Fisher, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Asia, 12-27-2011, “In Bahrain’s Hour of Peril, Where Does The U.S. Stand?,” The Public Record, http://pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/

He added: “The reforms agreed to

AND

the top priority for US policy­-makers.

The National commission wont block US support

Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief, 12-1-2011, Bahrain's National Commission to seek local, international expertise,” http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/bahrain-s-national-commission-to-seek-local-international-expertise-1.941552

Manama: The national commission set up by

AND

he said, quoted by Al Ayam daily.

The government wont block

Hasan Tariq Alhasan, political analyst, 12-6-2011, “Taxation: Bahrain's alternative path to political reform,” openDemocracy, http://www.opendemocracy.net/hasan-tariq-alhasan/taxation-bahrains-alternative-path-to-political-reform-0

The kingdom will have to introduce political reforms

AND

gradual and less polarizing path to further democracy.

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should increase its democratic civil society aid for opposition groups in Bahrain.

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should increase its civil society aid for opposition groups in Bahrain.

1AC – Solvency

Only the US can produce change in Bahrain – perception that we support the opposition is key

Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 12-1-2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” National Endowment for Democracy, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac

Regrettably, though, Bahrain is not now

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can and should respond in a constructive way.

US support for civil society causes successful BICI implementation and long term reforms

Niccolo' Figa-Talamanca, Secretary-General of No Peace Without Justice, 11-22-2011, “Bahrain: one step forward or two steps back?,” No Peace Without Justice, http://www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html

How the report turns out, and the

AND

for ensuring acknowledgement and justice for the victims.

Implementing BICI recommendations is a critical first step towards reconciliation

Harold Walker, former British Ambassador to Bahrain,  former Chairman of the Royal Society of Asian Affairs and former Chairman of the British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, 12-6-2011, “Bahrain after the BICI,” Conservative Middle East Council, http://cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/

These truths matter. In April the American

AND

than reflecting the nature of the ruling regime.

The US must act as a neutral brokers to create reconciliation

POMED, 12-2-2011, “POMED Notes: “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” http://bahrainrights.org/en/node/4878

On Thursday, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted

AND

suggested might be accomplished by releasing political prisoners.

Without US action the opposition will discredit the reforms – US support gives the King credibility and prevents anti-americanism

William Fisher, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Asia, 12-27-2011, “In Bahrain’s Hour of Peril, Where Does The U.S. Stand?,” The Public Record, http://pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/

He added: “The reforms agreed to

AND

the top priority for US policy­-makers.

The National commission wont block US support

Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief, 12-1-2011, Bahrain's National Commission to seek local, international expertise,” http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/bahrain-s-national-commission-to-seek-local-international-expertise-1.941552

Manama: The national commission set up by

AND

he said, quoted by Al Ayam daily.

The government wont block

Hasan Tariq Alhasan, political analyst, 12-6-2011, “Taxation: Bahrain's alternative path to political reform,” openDemocracy, http://www.opendemocracy.net/hasan-tariq-alhasan/taxation-bahrains-alternative-path-to-political-reform-0

The kingdom will have to introduce political reforms

AND

gradual and less polarizing path to further democracy.

1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

Inherency

Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

AND

to encourage his quest and hope for success.

US engagement ensures no base kick out

Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

AND

to renew the American lease to the base.

No alternative – Bahrain is key

David Dietz, political analyst, 4-21-2011, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/

Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the

AND

as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi.

Naval Power

5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

American maritime strategy has played a major role

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needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Even the perception of kickout kills credibility

Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-2006, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Thomas

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furthers diplomatic initiatives and contributes to economic development.

Naval power independently solves great power wars

James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf

Deter major power war. No other disruption

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control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the larger picture

AND

the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

No one can fill in for US naval power

Daniel Whiteneck et al, Research Analyst for NATO, Michael Price, Neil Jenkins, Peter Swartz, 3-2010, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?”, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf

Second, no other country (or combination

AND

deplete their resources and political support at home.

Solvency

US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

AND

often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

1AC – Radicalization Advantage

Inherency

Even after the BICI report the Bahraini monarchy has failed to reform causing a spike in violence and anti-americanism

Justin Gengler, PhD from UMich focusing on Bahrain, 1-1-2012, “Why 2012 Will Be a Lot Like 2011,” Religion and Politics, http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/why-2012-will-be-lot-like-2011.html

The launching of the website comes at a

AND

Sitra now refer to the "Great Satan."

Currently the monarchy is attacking Bahraini civil society – US action is necessary to solve

Rasika Teredesai, Legal Fellow, Human Rights Defenders Program, 12-22-2011, “Organizations Targeted by Bahrain’s Repression,” Human Rights First, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/22/organizations-targeted-by-bahrain%E2%80%99s-repression/

The government of Bahrain continues to interfere in

AND

be rewarded with an arms sale and US encouragement

Iran

Continued violence causes the opposition to seek Iranian backing – only reform can prevent their involvement

Democracy Digest, 11-10-2011, “Bahrain needs anti-sectarian social compact,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/bahrain-needs-anti-sectarian-social-compact/

Sectarianism has “dramatically eroded [Bahrain’s]

AND

they will surely be greeted with open arms.”

Only US engagement prevents radicalization and a turn towards Iran

Andrew Terrill, security analyst at the Strategic Studies Institute, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain

The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after

AND

for anti-regime activity by illegal means.

Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

AND

people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

AND

complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Pakistan

Oppression in Bahrain causes sectarian tensions to flare

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

AND

many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Sectarianism causes instability and draws in Pakistan

M.K.Bhadrakumar , diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service and Asia Times contributor, 3-30-2011, “Pakistan skating on thin Bahraini Ice,” Diplomatic Perspectivehttp://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/pakistan-skating-on-thin-bahraini-ice.html

Bahrain and its mentors in Riyadh have every

AND

tiny Bahrain is one of the more momentous".

That causes Pakistan-Iran war

James Kurth, Claude Smith Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore, Fall 2005, “Global Threats and American Strategies: From Communism in 1955 to Islamism in 2005, Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www.fpri.org/orbis/4904/kurth.globalthreats.pdf

The remaining splitting strategy (Sunnis vs.

AND

events that have acutely concentrated the strategic mind.

Causes extinction

Alexis Madrigal, Energy Science Tech and Journalist, 4-7-2008, Wired, “Regional Nuclear War Would Cause Worldwide Destruction,” http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/regional-nuclea.html

Imagine that the long-simmering conflict between

AND

and on the structure of the atmosphere itself.

Pakistan-is actively supporting Bahraini and Saudi forces in the crackdown

UPI, 8-22-2011, “Pakistan extends influence in gulf states ,” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/08/22/Pakistan-extends-influence-in-gulf-states/UPI-58671314030630/

Pakistan has also rushed to the defense of

AND

no mean feat today given their adversarial positions."

Continued Pakistan involvement collapses Pakistan-Iran relations

VOA, 8-21-2011, “Pakistani Veterans Beef Up Bahrain Security Forces: VOA,” http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&Id=260993

"Many of these Sunni Pakistani troops,

AND

Pakistani-Iranian relations if the recruitment continued.

That’s key to Pakistan-Iran pipeline

Politact, 4-2-2011, “The Impact of Middle East Situation On Pakistan-Iran Relations and Afghanistan,” http://politact.com/analysis-of-perception-and-perspective/the-impact-of-middle-east-situation-on-pakistan-iran-relations-and-afghanistan.html

Turmoil in Bahrain’s led to Saudi led Gulf

AND

by making matters worse in the AfPak region.

Pipeline solves Sino-Russian energy conflict

Richard Rousseau, Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan, 6-24-2011, “Pipeline Politics in Central Asia,” Foreign Policy in Focus, http://www.fpif.org/articles/pipeline_politics_in_central_asia

Although China may tap into various other energy

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China, India, Pakistan, and Iran.

Russia-China war goes nuclear

Alexander Sharavin, 10-3-2001, Defense and Security

Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us skyscrapers

AND

the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.