The 1AC perpetuates the ‘blind spots’ of a top down approach to global affairs. It engages in a globalized model of ‘what is’ not ‘what could be’- this approach categorizes global violence based on state interest
Nayar, School of Law @ University of Warwick, 1999 (Jayan, SYMPOSIUM: RE-FRAMING INTERNATIONAL LAW FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: "Orders of Inhumanity," Transnational Law & Contemporary Problems, Fall 99, [article] Lexis)

Located within a site of privilege, and
AND
against violence remain energized, persistent and located.


The affirmative’s ‘global’ standpoint perpetuates systemic oppression and violence
Nayar, School of Law @ University of Warwick, 1999 (Jayan, SYMPOSIUM: RE-FRAMING INTERNATIONAL LAW FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: "Orders of Inhumanity," Transnational Law & Contemporary Problems, Fall 99, [article] Lexis)

But what is the message given to the
AND
of inhumanity, carry on with violence intact.


And our framing is essential- it’s a question of orientation- how we relate to the ‘global’ in this academic space is key
Nayar, School of Law @ University of Warwick, 1999 (Jayan, SYMPOSIUM: RE-FRAMING INTERNATIONAL LAW FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: "Orders of Inhumanity," Transnational Law & Contemporary Problems, Fall 99, [article] Lexis)

How much of the "world," which
AND
from which we ourselves order, remain unscrutinized.

The EU is capable of providing democracy assistance to MENA countries.

E. A. Fakhro, 2009, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, "The European Union and Islam: Democracy Promotion in Bahrain and the Arab World," http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Fakhro_low_2.pdf

Having examined both the influence of Islamist actors

AND

term ally and partner of the Arab world.

A coherent European response to the Arab Spring is key to a strong foreign policy for the EU.

Giles Merritt, 7/29/11, Thie Times of Malta, "Where is Europe's foreign policy," http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110729/opinion/Where-is-Europe-s-foreign-policy-.377810

In the 18 months since the Lisbon Treaty

AND

has done nothing since to change that assessment.

Strong EU solves multiple scenarios of extinction.

Bruton 2001  (John, Former Irish Prime Minister, Report before the Joint Committee on European Affairs, Parliament of Ireland, October, http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm)

2.5 As the Laeken Declaration put

AND

blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.

T - DA: Not Dialogue

Democracy Assistance is limited to the transfer of funds, expertise and material to democratic groups already pushing for democracy.

Richard Lappin, 2010, (Richard Lappin is a Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium). “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4, Issue 1, p. 187-188.

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties. 

Justice and Security Dialogue does not include any of those things – it is only talking

Rausch ‘11

[Collette, June 27, Justice and Security Dialogue: A New Tool for Peacebuilders

, http://www.usip.org/publications/justice-and-security-dialogue-new-tool-peacebuilders]

Simply put, Justice and Security Dialogue (

AND

understanding, identifying shared concerns and building relationships.

T - DA: Not Human Rights Support

Democracy Assistance is limited to the transfer of funds, expertise and material to democratic groups already pushing for democracy.
Richard Lappin, 2010, (Richard Lappin is a Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium). “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4, Issue 1, p. 187-188.
Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as
AND
society groups, media groups and political parties.  

Human rights promotion is separate from Democracy Assistance
Lerch, German information office of European Parliament, 2007
(Marika, former managing editor of International Politics and Society, The human rights dimensions of the European profile in democracy support, in Democracy Europe’s core value? On the European profile in world-wide democracy assistance, eds: Marieke van Doom and Roel von Meijenfeldt)

However, despite significant overlaps, human rights
AND
agents in shaping democratic politics and political structures.

Governance Assistance is not Environment Assistance (KU KK Egypt Enviro Aff)

Interp - Democracy assistance has 4 subsectors – Civil Society, Governance, Rule of Law and Elections
Azpuru, Finkel, Perez-Linan, and Seligson, Vandy, Pitt, Pitt, Vandy, ’08
(“What has the United States Been Doing?” Journal of Democracy Volume 19, Number 2, April 2008 pp. 150-159)
It is often said that Western donors are
AND
/AzpuruGraphics-19-2.pdf. 

Violation - Rule of Law contains three key areas: legal reform, administering justice, and increasing citizen’s access to justice. It does not include environmental governance
McMahon, Dean’s Prof. Applied Politics @ Binghamton, ’02
(Edward R., Director, Center on Democratic Performance, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study.” acsd 5/23/11, Aug 29-Sept 1, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)
The rule of law area addresses both constitutional
AND 

Management Systems International, 1998), 17.

1NC

Russian influence in the Middle East is on the rise but they are scared that US support of protestors in Egypt will legitimize popular revolts at home and decrease their influence in the Middle East

Balmforth ‘11

[Tom, March 2, Egypt unrest has Russia worried , http://themoscownews.com/international/20110203/188390287.html]

Russia has promoted itself as a major player

AND

but they will be thinking about this,” says

Democracy assistance to Egypt will damage relations with Russia, it’s an issue of regime survival – spills over to other areas

Fiona Hill, 2/15/11, Foreign Policy, "How Russia and China See the Egyptian Revolution," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/15/how_russia_and_china_see_the_egyptian_revolution?page=0,2

One of the principal bases of U.

AND

issues unrelated to Egypt and the Middle East.

Russia will not accept being pushed aside in the Middle East and will push back and sabotage US efforts – they view plan as an existential threat

Stephen Blank (professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College) June 2006 “Russia and the US in the Middle East:  Policies and Contexts” http://se1.isn.ch:80/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=PublishingHouse&fileid=93B9D844-C74F-7E29-1C1C-0F0678DC8DF2&lng=en

More recently we can observe an apparent decisive

AND

deeply rooted emotional reaction in the population”.78

Russia will push back too hard in response to the plan causing nuclear war

Victor Baranets (writer for Defense and Security) July 20, 2007 “Will America Fight Russia?” L/N

Who will draw first blood? Sharavin:

AND

what US technologies and weapons are capable of.

Block Extensions

The impact is extinction – this is the fastest and most likely scenario
John Hallam, Editor of Nuclear Flashpoints, John Burroughs and Marcy Fowler, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, 2009, NPT Preparatory Committee, Steps Toward a Safer World
Why did an article in the September 2008
AND
achieve lower operational status of nuclear weapon systems.
Only US-Russia War causes extinction
Bostrom 2 (Nick, Dir. Future of Humanity Institute and Prof. Philosophy – Oxford U., Journal of Evolution and Technology, “Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, 9, March, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html)
The first manmade existential risk was the inaugural
AND
that we will encounter in the 21st century.
The Arab spring is seen as an opportunity for Russia to establish its influence in the region – the plan would push them out
Magen ‘11
[Zivi, April 14, Russia in the New Middle East
, http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/35488]

The shocks that have lately rocked the Middle
AND
elbowed aside by competitors (such as China).
Russia views influence with the US as zero-sum
Anthony Camisi (wirter for the Daily Pennsylvanian) November 1, 2005 “Official:  Russia still sees ‘zero-sum’ game” http://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/ciber/webzine/Articles/Archive/US-Russia%20Policy%20Today/US-Russia%20Policy%20Today.htm
One of the State Department's top advisers on
AND
zero-sum mentality," Greenberg said, meaning
The Middle East is the center of the conflict between the US and Russia
Ali Asghar Kazemi (professor of Law and international relations in Tehran) November 22, 2007 “Shadow of a new cold war” http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/previous.php?opt=1&id=204#833
A new cold war is appearing on the
AND
seem to have no intention of ceasing hostilities.
Russia opposes democratic intervention by the U.S. in the Middle East
Katz, prof government @ George Mason, 2007
(Mark, “Moscow’s mideast hopes,” June 11, UPI, lexis)

Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has pursued three
AND
Soviet Union  perhaps even in Russia itself.
Even if previous actions didn’t upset Russia, future actions will be opposed
Shalini Sharan et al, September 2011, CSIS, "What does the arab spring mean for russia, central asia, and the caucasus?"

The combination of these factors reduces the possibility
AND
of the new regimes in the Middle East.
Russia is already upset about the situation in Egypt Attempts by the US to influence Egyptian democracy will be viewed as encroachment in Russia’s sphere of influence resulting in conflict
Muhammad ‘11
[Cedric, political strategist and monetary economist and member of the African Union's First Congress of African Economists. , A Coming Russia-U.S. Conflict Over Egypt?
, http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/Business_amp_Money_12/article_7583.shtml]

With Cairo and Alexandria burning, and President
AND
outright conflict with America over Egypt's fluid shifts.
EGYPTIAN MILITARY ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRAINED BY RUSSIA – AND, U.S. TRAINING CAUSES A BACKLASH

POMED, 2009
(Dec 11, 2009, U.S. Military Assistance: Obstacle or Opportunity for Reform?
Steven Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy, and Emile Hokayem, a non-resident Research Fellow with the Henry L. Stimson Center’s Southwest Asia/Gulf program and Politics Editor of the Abu Dhabi-based newspaper The National. The event was moderated by Sebastian Grafe, Program Director for Foreign and Security Policy and Transatlantic Issues at the Heinrich Boll Foundation.
http://pomed.org/blog/2009/12/pomed-event-us-military-assistance-obstacle-or-opportunity-for-reform-2.html/)

Responding to a question from Grafe, Cook
AND
often discriminated against professionally within the Egyptian military.

Russian training is true for top military officer in Egypt

Christian Science Monitor, 2011
(February 3, America's best agents in Cairo: US-trained Egyptian officers, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0203/America-s-best-agents-in-Cairo-US-trained-Egyptian-officers)

Many eyes are on Lt. Gen.
AND
hundreds of Pentagon officials operate in the country.
Relations are already strained over Arab Spring support – plan pushes them over the edge
Shalini Sharan et al, September 2011, CSIS, "What does the arab spring mean for russia, central asia, and the caucasus?"

The different strategic interests of the United States
AND
the "reset" running out of steam.
US-Russian relations are key to Middle Eastern stability
Dmitry Suslov (Deputy director on research at the council on foreign and defense policy) 2005 “US-Russian Relations Saved for Now” http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=5348
Russia's modernization is impossible without the United States
AND
one single problem: degradation of this region.
STRONG US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE KEY TO SOLVE IRANIAN WEAPONS POSSESSION
Sadi, former Jordanian ambassador to Turkey and the UN, 2007
(Waleed, Without Russia, the US faces Middle Eastern frustration, Daily Star, Dec 4, online,  http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidDS041207_dsart40)

Putin has employed different means to counter this
AND
its policies in the Middle East to fruition.

AQAP Advantage

Al Qaeda isn’t interested in nuclear weapons

Paul Cruickshank and Tim Lister. Sept. 12th, 2011. “Al Qaeda 2.0: What the next 10 years will bring.” http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/12/al-qaeda-2-0-what-the-next-10-years-will-bring/.

As Congress prepares to hold a joint House

AND

undermine authoritarian rulers and their ruthless intelligence services.

Terrorism inevitable – AQIM and Africa

Paul Cruickshank and Tim Lister. Sept. 12th, 2011. “Al Qaeda 2.0: What the next 10 years will bring.” http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/12/al-qaeda-2-0-what-the-next-10-years-will-bring/.

If al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula seems

AND

nor did that of AQAP two years ago. 

No risk of terrorism and it won't cause extinction.

Tierny 2006  (John.  New York Times, “Waiting for al Qaeda.”  September 9.  Lexis)

Mueller's conclusion is that there just aren't that

AND

transform the Middle East in order to survive.

Even if a nuclear terrorist attack succeeded, retaliation would be impossible. 

Nyquist ‘7

J.R. Nyquist, 10/19/07, "The Logic of Nuclear Proliferation," http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2007/1019.html   

A few days ago President Bush made a

AND

been based on a doctrine of massive retaliation. 

Stability Advantage

Can’t solve stability – alt causes
Boucek 2011
[Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Washington, D.C. July 19, 2011, ]
Yemen is facing an unprecedented confluence of crises
AND
threaten American foreign policy and national security interests.

Too many alt causes – any one of them is enough to trigger instability
Ulrichsen 11
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is the Kuwait research fellow in the Kuwait Programme for
Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Centre for
the Study of Global Governance at the London School of Economics and
Political Science. Middle East Policy Council Journal Essay: The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula 2011

This country of nearly 24 million people faces
AND
bypasses and undermines formal controls and border security.

Democratization takes decades
Cohen & Kupcu, 2009
(Michael, Maria, Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform, April, New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute,

Democratization is the work of generations. While
AND
a beginning step on the road to democratization.

Government transition turns the aff
Ruhe 11 (Jonathan, senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “The Horror of a Post-Saleh Yemen”, June 9, 2011
Yemeni history indeed paraphrases itself, and 2011
AND
. The United States had best prepare itself.

Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent for Arab
AND
local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.
      

Saudi/Iran Adv

Iran would never attack the Saudi’s – if they did the attack would fail

Bill Spindle and Margaret Coker. April 16, 2011. “The New Cold War.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html.

The Saudis currently rely on the U.

AND

it has renounced the use of nuclear weapons.

Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

Finally, there is no precedent for Arab

AND

local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Middle East escalation empirically denied

Kevin Drum September 9 2007 The Washington Monthly, “The Chaos Hawks”

Needless to say, this is nonsense.

AND

war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

Elections Advantage

Favoring certain political parties will backfire
Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt,"
As the U.S. government assesses
AND
or parties during the various elections since 2005. 

MB win inevitable – aid can’t work fast enough
Rick Gold, 2/7/11, (Gold is a retired Foreign Service Officer who werved with USAID in Egypt), "The Revolution's significane for political parties,"

In 2005, USAID provided funding to the
AND
permitted to establish a party or field candidates.

American aid hurts the chances of the recipients
Mohamed Abdelbaky, 8/25/11, Fikra Forum, (Mohamed Abdelbaky is an Egyptian journalist who specializes in demoacy and human rights), "The crisis of external funding of egyptian civil society,"

So, Egyptian civil society, which is
AND
civil society in Egypt during the transition phase.

Opposing the MB will cause blowback when they win
Bajoria 11 (Jayshree Bajoria, Senior Staff Writer, Council on Foreign Relations, February 3, 2011, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood,”
Leslie Gelb, CFR's president emeritus who has
AND
at the heart of talks with Egypt's Islamists."

No military takeover – key officials oppose
Michael Hanna, 8/23/11, Foreign Policy, "The mind of Egypt's military,"

The haphazard and at times authoritarian manner by
AND
have not thrown their weight behind this proposition.  

Leadership Advantage

One shot attempts don’t solve credibility and it takes decades
Marina Ottaway, March 2003, Carnegie Endowment, "Promoting democracy i nthe middle east: the problem of US credibility,"

To play a more important role in the
AND
a set of obstacles specific to the region.

Democracy Assistance can’t restore leadership
Carpenter 11 (Ted Galen, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America, What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little, Cato Institute, February 11, 2011, , MCL)
Though the spectacular events in Cairo have ended
AND
low-profile role during these turbulent days.

Hegemony is not sustainable – current trends show decline in all facets of US power.

Haas 8 (Richard, CFR pres., May/June,
In this world, the United States is
AND
of nonpolarity as is the proliferation of weaponry.

Transition now and its peaceful
Global Times 8
[School of International Studies of Renmin University of China, “Coming Collapse of the Hegemonic World”,
September 12, 2008, p. LexusNexus]
With the clout of China and India rising
AND
free and harmonious world in the new century.

Clinging to hegemony hastens its decline
MacDonald 9
[Paul, doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science, Columbia University, Daedalus, “Rebalancing
American foreign policy”, 2009, p. asp]
Observers have anticipated America's decline numerous times before
AND
has much to lose and little to gain. 

5th Fleet Advantage

5th fleet won’t leave- their claims are based on rumors without reliable sources
Toumi 11 (7-22, Habib, MA  Mass Communications, University of Leicester, “US Navy dismisses reports it is moving out of Bahrain,” atw
The US Navy has denied media reports it
AND
the Gulf, has little desire to move.

Alternatives to Bahrain are sufficient for military presence and effectiveness
Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, October 23, 2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain, precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387
By establishing a network of cooperative locations and
AND
place and at the right time to succeed.

Iranian and U.S. influence is irrelevant in the Middle East
Jumana Al Tamimi, 8/3/11, Gulf News, "Poll shows Iran has lost Arab support,"
After a few years of supporting Iran for
AND
calling for more freedoms and better living conditions. 

Iran not building a Bomb- Top international watchdogs agree
Tuan C. Nguyen, LiveScience Staff Writer 22 September 2009 Why It's So Hard to Make Nuclear Weapons  

It took only a matter of hours last
AND
notoriously difficult to build an advanced nuclear weapon.  

Iran would never attack the Saudi’s – if they did the attack would fail
Bill Spindle and Margaret Coker. April 16, 2011. “The New Cold War.”
The Saudis currently rely on the U.
AND
it has renounced the use of nuclear weapons.

Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent for Arab
AND
local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Iraq Advantage

Civil war wouldn’t escalate
Matthew Yglesias The Atlantic “Containing Iraq” 9/12/2007

Kevin Drum tries to throw some water on
AND
the desert hunting a possibly mythical terrorist organization.

Impossible to regain credibility in the Arab world
Carpenter 11 (Ted Galen, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of eight books on international affairs, including Smart Power: Toward a Prudent Foreign Policy for America, What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little, Cato Institute, February 11, 2011, , MCL)
Though the spectacular events in Cairo have ended
AND
low-profile role during these turbulent days.

Saudi Arabia will block reform
Al-Tamimi June 19, 2011 Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi intern for the Middle East Forum, student at Brasenose College, Oxford University “Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?”  MM
But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia
AND
the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

Bahrain will reject the plan’s offer
Northam May 22, 2011 Jackie Northam is Foreign Affairs correspondent for NPR news. “Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy” MM
While public criticism of Bahrain's handling of the
AND
they're going to respond to," he says.

The U.S. will block Israeli strikes
Press TV Israel not to attack Iran 'in near term' Fri, 8/28/ 2009  

Amid Israeli concerted efforts to halt Iran's nuclear
AND
near term as far as I can tell."   

So Either Israel strikes are inevitable or will never happen
Walt Rodgers.  CSM, “The danger of an Israeli strike on Iran.”  April 24, 2009.  
Netanyahu is no fool. He is keenly
AND
or economic pressure can sway Iran's ruling clerics. 

Iraq doesn’t matter - Saudi Arabia will let Israel use its airspace.
Mark Sappenfield.  CSM, “Closer to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nukes?”  July 5, 2009.  
Speculation about a potential Israeli strike against nuclear
AND
to get American approval to fly over Iraq.

Multiplank CP

Plank 1:  The United States federal government should provide a 1.7 cent per kilowatt-hour tax credit for carbon sequestration projects.

Plank 2:  The United States federal government should produce and maintain a fleet of no fewer than 250 F-22s.

Plank 3: The United States federal government should agree to Iran’s uranium fuel-swap offer.

Incentives can speed the technology for carbon sequestration and bring it online

William Sweet, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, 2006, Kicking the Carbon Habit: global warming and the case for renewable and nuclear energy, p. 144

From a purely technical point of view,

AND

two years from avoided carbon-emission taxes.

F-22 build-up solves hegemony

Grant ‘9

[Rebecca. senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. Outside View: Why F-22 is vital -- Part 4. 4/1/9. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Outside_View_Why_F-22_is_vital_Part_14_999.html].

There is yet another dilemma. The smaller

AND

When production ceases, the door will close.

Iranian nuclear tech inevitable – only the counterplan prevents proliferation

Martin Matishak, 10/7/2011, Global Security Newswire, "US should accept Iran's latest uranium enrichment offer, experts say," http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20111007_3455.php

The United States should accept Iran's offer to

AND

West. He reaffirmed the pledge this week.

Engagement with Iran solves credibility, stifles their nuclear program and encourages a regime change

Zachary Keck, 6/8/11, The Diplomat, "Why to accept Iran's talks offer," http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/08/why-to-accept-iran%e2%80%99s-talks-offer/?all=true

Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme had been at

AND

hinders its ability to advance the nuclear program.

Stability Advantage

U.S. GOVERNANCE AID WILL BACKFIRE – IT WILL MAKE THE NEW REGIME UNPOPULAR
Applebaum, 2011
(Anne, August 23, Let Libya take charge of its revolution,

The Libyan revolution needn’t end in civil war
AND
them, we risk immediately making it unpopular.

POLICE TRAINING WILL TAKE DECADES
Serwer, 2011
(Daniel, Where does Libya go from here?, August 25,

There are no magic formulas for how to
AND
place a police force Libyan democracy would want.

No risk of Islamist extremism post-Qaddafi
Democracy Digest. 4-5-2011. “Inclusive civil society more likely than sectarian strife in post-Qaddafi Libya?”
Predictions of a post-Qaddafi civil war
AND
will be a bane to jihadi recruitment efforts.” 

Al Qaeda isn’t interested in nuclear weapons
Paul Cruickshank and Tim Lister. Sept. 12th, 2011. “Al Qaeda 2.0: What the next 10 years will bring.”
As Congress prepares to hold a joint House
AND
undermine authoritarian rulers and their ruthless intelligence services. 

No risk of terrorism and it won't cause extinction.
Tierny 2006  (John.  New York Times, “Waiting for al Qaeda.”  September 9.  Lexis)
Mueller's conclusion is that there just aren't that
AND
transform the Middle East in order to survive. 

Your impacts are just media hype.
Mueller 2006  (John, Chair of National Security Studies @ Ohio State University. Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them. Pg. 6)
One reason these propositions have gone almost entirely
AND
contempt for America's capacity to deal with adversity.

Even if a nuclear terrorist attack succeeded, retaliation would be impossible.  
Nyquist ‘7
J.R. Nyquist, 10/19/07, "The Logic of Nuclear Proliferation,"    
A few days ago President Bush made a
AND
been based on a doctrine of massive retaliation.    

NATO Advantage

LIBYAN STRATEGY REVEALS FUTILITY OF NATO
Bromund, senior research fellow @ Heritage, 2011
(Theodore, Obama’s Top Ten Errors on Libya, September 1,

The Libyan war has been a disaster for
AND
lost a large chunk of its historic core.

NATO collapse equals EU fill-in, solves the impact
GALLAGHER, JD, UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON LAW, 2003 (MICHAEL, HOUSTON JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW,
WINTER)
The end of NATO will produce a Euro
AND
NATO should assist in this gradual transition. n312 

No impact to NATO collapse
Bruno 2008
(Greg BRUNO, writer.  CFR, “The NATO Alliance at War.”  Updated 4-2-2008.  
NATO, experts say, suffers from a
AND
is that NATO is doing a huge amount.”

Collapse inevitable and no impact to it
Martin Sieff, 5/8/09, UPI, "How NATO became a weak and empty shell,"
A combination of geopolitical and psychological factors turned
AND
in both numbers and power-projection capabilities. 

Burden Sharing/Hegemony Advantage

US heg sustainable – multiple reasons

Slaughter 9 (Anne-Marie, of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, Foreign Affairs, January- February 2009, “America's Edge Subtitle: Power in the Networked Century,” p. 94)
Almost 30 years ago, the psychologist Carol
AND
innovative and dynamic society anywhere in the world. 

LEADING FROM BEHIND UNDERMINES U.S. LEADERSHIP
McFarland, national security advisor to Nixon, Ford & Reagan, 2011
(KT, The Obama Doctrine  Can Anyone Really Lead From Behind?, September 6,

But there are even bigger problems with the
AND
, with the good of others in mind.

LIBYA IS NOT A TEST CASE FOR MULTILATERALISM – IT TURNED ON OBAMA’S DECISION-MAKING
Kagan, 2011
(Robert, Obama needs to resist the temptation to run away from Libya as quickly as possible, says FPI Director Robert Kagan, August 27,

That is one reason why the fall of
AND
the United States remains both indispensable and irreplaceable.

A decline of Hegemony would not be catastrophic
Global Times 8
[School of International Studies of Renmin University of China, “Coming Collapse of the Hegemonic World”,
September 12, 2008, p. LexusNexus]
With the clout of China and India rising
AND
free and harmonious world in the new century.

The benefits of hegemony can’t be realized
Layne 07, Christopher, Associate Professor of International Affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, “American Empire: A Debate,” Routledge publishing 2007, pg. 51
The events of the last five years suggest
AND
backlash against its preeminent position in international politics.
    

Saudi Advantage

No proxy war
Bill Spindle and Margaret Coker. April 16, 2011. “The New Cold War.”
The Saudis currently rely on the U.
AND
it has renounced the use of nuclear weapons.

Downfall of the Assad regime will cause a civil war
Hassan ‘11
[Hassan, Aug 28, Syria's opposition has failed to offer a viable alternative , ]

The regime has also been careful not to
AND
Mr Al Assad will simply prolong his regime.

Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent for Arab
AND
local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Middle East escalation empirically denied
Kevin Drum September 9 2007 The Washington Monthly, “The Chaos Hawks”
Needless to say, this is nonsense.
AND
war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

No escalation- Global Powers have moderated
Dr. Gwynne Dyer (lecturer on international affairs) October 21 2001 “The World Turned Upside Down?”, International Affairs,
How bad could it get? Very bad
AND
. Things are actually changing for the better.

No extinction from chemical weapons
Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July,

2. Chemical weapons! Spooky-sounding
AND
would be confined to a few city blocks. 

Russia Advantage

Hegemony is not sustainable – current trends show decline in all facets of US power.
Haas 8 (Richard, CFR pres., May/June,
In this world, the United States is
AND
of nonpolarity as is the proliferation of weaponry.

The transition away from unipolarity is happening now and it will remain peaceful
Global Times 8
[School of International Studies of Renmin University of China, “Coming Collapse of the Hegemonic World”,
September 12, 2008, p. LexusNexus]
With the clout of China and India rising
AND
free and harmonious world in the new century.

Russia will not accept being pushed aside in the Middle East and will push back and sabotage US efforts – they view plan as an existential threat
Stephen Blank (professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College) June 2006 “Russia and the US in the Middle East:  Policies and Contexts”
More recently we can observe an apparent decisive
AND
deeply rooted emotional reaction in the population”.78

Russia will push back too hard in response to the plan causing nuclear war
Victor Baranets (writer for Defense and Security) July 20, 2007 “Will America Fight Russia?” L/N
Who will draw first blood? Sharavin:
AND
show of what US technologies and weapons are capable

RUSSIAN ENGAGEMENT WITH MIDDLE EAST IS KEY TO PREVENT INTERNAL CONFLICT
Cohen, senior research fellow @ Heritage, 2007
(Ariel, “Putin’s presence,” Washington Times, March 4, lexis)

The Russian leadership is concerned with the high
AND
unspoken but important item on the Kremlin's agenda.

AND, INTERNAL WAR IN RUSSIA WOULD CAUSE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLICT
David 99 – Professor of Political Science at John Hopkins University
[Steven R., “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, LN]

Should Russia succumb to internal war, the
AND
will unleash nuclear weapons against the United States.

Oil crisis inevitable
Robert McNally and Michael Levi, July/August 2011, Foreign Affairs, "A Crude Predicament: The Era of Volatile Oil Prices," vo. 90, no. 4

With producers nearly tapped out amid strong demand
AND
on spending elsewhere, depressing the entire economy.

No resource wars
Seng, 2k [MAJ Ronnie Lim Gek Seng, “Globalisation and Its Impact on Security in Southeast Asia,” Journal of the Singapor Armed Forces, Journal V26 N3 (Jul - Sep 2000), ]
Countries go to war for a variety of
AND
war to gain resource becomes even more remote. 

A government funding extension will be reached now, but new spending derails the deal. Causes a shutdown.

Andy Sullivan, 11/1/11, Reuters, "US Senate passes slimmed-down spending bills," http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/usa-congress-spending-idUSN1E7A00W620111101

The U.S. government would spend

AND

, due to a dispute over disaster spending.

A shutdown will collapse the economy

Martin Neil Baily, 4/6/11, Brookings Institute, "Economic repercussions of a government shudown," http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0407_government_shutdown_baily.aspx

In the bigger picture, consumer and investor

AND

triggering another and perhaps even worse financial crisis.

Economic collapse turns the aff and causes nuclear war

Harris and Burrows, 09 – PhD in European History @ Cambridge and Counselor of the US National Intelligence Council AND Member of the National Intelligence Council’s Long Range Analysis Unit (Mathew J. and Jennifer, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” April, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf)

Of course, the report encompasses more than

AND

a more dog-eat-dog world.

Neg:WSU bm

Round # 5 Tournament:Shirley

Vs Team: Kansas CG

Judge: Sarah Spring

Off Case Args:

Transportation politics

EU cp without NB

Consult Turkey

Nayan K

Case Args:

Not ME War

No trade war

No UI Russia War

Specific case defense (x gas cutoff, Tunisia say no)

Block Strategy:

2NC: ev

1NR: political

2nr Strategy:

Political and camp 

Neg: Witchita State BH

Round # 4 Shirley

V seam Michigan hl

Judge Fifelski

Off Case Args:

T DA excludes dialogue

Nayar K

Saudi Arabia DA

Grab bag adv cp/ on wiki

Case Args

5^th fleet bad

Say no

De-dev

Block Strategy

5^th fleet grab bag cp

De-dev

2nr Strat

Neg:Wichita State BM

Round # 1 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Minnesota FS

Judge: Bausen

Off Case Args:

T: DA lappin

Nayar

EU CP

Russia DA

Case Args:

CAP sustainable

Cap inevitable

Cap good, ethical, transition wars

Psychoanalysis bad

Bouazizi wanted cap

Arab revolts not anti-cap

Extinction o/w

No root cause of violence

Block Strategy:

EU cp

T

Case

Russia DA

2nr Strategy:

CP

DA

Case

US – Saudi relations are on the brink now -- The plan collapses the alliance

Avni 11—New York Post op-ed contributor. Has covered Middle East and US fopo for years (Benny, O's Saudi scramble, 15 April 2011, www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/saudi_scramble_yyAcmLIzBUwiXJkAjyzzwL)

The Obama administration is scrambling to repair dam

AND

just to get on the Saudi's good side. 

Collapse of the alliance emboldens Iran and turns the aff

Fisher 10-11-11 – Associate at the Atlantic, Max, Would Iran Really Want to Blow Up the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S.?, The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/would-iran-really-want-to-blow-up-the-saudi-ambassador-to-the-us/246505/

What would it really mean for Iran if

AND

the U.S. on American soil.

1NC Dedev

Economic growth is unsustainable – resource scarcity, land use, global warming, and overconsumption

Trainer, 07 – Visiting Fellow in the Faculty of Arts at the University of NSW (Ted, “We can't go on living like this”, http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/author.asp?id=1973)

Several lines of argument lead to this conclusion

AND

. Yet the present level is grossly unsustainable.

Decline doesn’t cause war – it’s the other way around

Bennett and Stam 2003

D. Scott Bennett is Professor of Political Science at the Pennsylvania State University.

Allan C. Stam is Associate Professor in the Government Department at Dartmouth College.  The Behavioral Origins of War http://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472098446-ch5.pdf   D.A. 7-15-10

Consistent with Goldstein’s arguments, we find periods

AND

incidence of war increases and rather dramatically so.

Growth makes irreversible destruction and extinction inevitable. Collapsing the global economy is the only way out. Even if the collapse is destructive, it is better than continued growth.

Barry 08

(Dr. Glen, president and founder of Ecological Internet, “Economic Collapse and Global Ecology”, 1/14, Counter Currents, http://www.countercurrents.org/barry140108.htm, VR)

Humanity and the Earth are faced with an

AND

upon bringing down the Earth's industrial economy now.

The transition would be quick and painless

Trainer 2 - Lecturer, School of Social Work, University of New South Wales (Ted, “Debating the Significance of the Global Eco-village Movement: A Reply to Takis Fotopoulos” Democracy & Nature, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2002) MGM

However I am not convinced the transition must

AND

present resource-expensive infrastructures and of legitimacy.

Block Cards

Transition is possible

William Powers, Summer 2011, (William Powers is a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. He has worked for more than a decade in development aid and conservation in Latin America, Africa, and Washington.) World Policy Journal, "Finding Enough: Confessions of a secular missionary," Project Muse

In October 2011, I visited the University

AND

shelter, and absorb the waste of everyone.

The transition would solve – movements building now

William Powers, Summer 2011, (William Powers is a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. He has worked for more than a decade in development aid and conservation in Latin America, Africa, and Washington.) World Policy Journal, "Finding Enough: Confessions of a secular missionary," Project Muse

. As a wise friend from an indigenous

AND

myself every day. How much is enough?

A collapse will trigger a consciousness shift

Joel Kassiola, Professor of Political Science, Brooklyn College, 1990, The Death of Industrial Civilization, p. 196

To sum up the main thrust of this

AND

to our planet and all of its inhabitants.

Collapse is vital to spur a transition – it would catalyze a social learning process that makes new social arrangements possible.

Milbrath, 03 – Director Emeritus of the Research Program in Environment and Society at the State University of New York at Buffalo (Lester W.,"Envisioning a Sustainable Society," Explorations in Environmental Political Theory: Thinking About What We Value, edited by Joel Jay Kassiola, Published by M.E. Sharpe, ISBN 0765610523, p. 48-51)

Learning our way to a new society not

AND

are not free to shrink from this responsibility. 

Comprehensive studies prove decline doesn’t cause war

MILLER 01

Morris Miller is an adjunct economics professor at the University of Ottawa.

Peace Magazine Jan-Mar 2001, page 8  D.A. 7-15-10

http://archive.peacemagazine.org/v17n1p08.htm Poverty: A Cause of War?

Economic Crises?  Some scholars have argued that

AND

using one form of violence to abort another)."

Economic collapse won’t cause war – Current Decline proves

Moises Naim – Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy Magazine  Foreign Policy Online | JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/it_didnt_happen?page=full  d.a. 7-15-10

Just a few months ago, the consensus

AND

No, it turns out: They aren't.

Global economic decline fosters international cooperation, not conflict.

Fravel 10

The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict

M. Taylor Fravel is the Cecil and Ida Green Career Development Associate Professor of Political Science and member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of

Security Studies, Volume 19, Issue 2 May 2010 , pages 307 - 341 Informaworld

The diversionary hypothesis offers one of the most

AND

Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council.131

A strong US economy makes conflict more likely

Oneal & Tir  2006

John R. Oneal is Associate Professor and Director of International Studies at the University of Alabama.  Jaroslav Tir is Assistant Professor in Political Science at the University of Georgia Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921–2001   International Studies Quarterly Volume 50, Issue 4, Pages 755-779 Wiley interscience

Our analyses of five prominent, powerful democracies

AND

used to divert attention away from a poor economy

Growth causes nationalism and war

BOEHMER 07

Charles R. Boehmer. "The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict" Politics and Policy 35.4 (2007): 774-809. Available at: http://works.bepress.com/charles_boehmer/8  Assistant Professor of Political Science at

The University of Texas at El Paso.  D.A. 7-15-10

All leaders depend on a constituency of some

AND

had not experienced prolonged prosperity and economic growth?

Nuclear winter wouldn’t cause extinction anyway

Holtz 2005  (Brian, M.S. in AI from the U. of Michigan, “Possible Future Global Catastrophes,” Human Knowledge: Foundations and Limits,” http://humanknowledge.net/SocialScience/Futurology/Catastrophes.html) 

Nuclear Catastrophe. Nuclear power could result in

AND

could neither extinct humanity nor end human civilization.

We will have over consumed Earth’s resources by 2030 – extinction is inevitable w/out dedev

Science Daily, 10/18/10, "Tropics in decline as natural resources exhausted at alarming rate," http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/10/101018162156.htm

New analysis shows populations of tropical species are

AND

planets' productive capacity to meet our annual demands.

Continued growth will inevitably lead to resource wars

Trainer 2 - Senior Lecturer, School of Social Work, University of New South Wales (Ted, “If you want affluence, prepare for War,” Democracy & Nature: The International Journal of Inclusive Democracy; Jul2002, Vol. 8 Issue 2, p281-299)

If You Want Affluence, Prepare for War

AND

their share of industrial resources and markets …’70

Growth causes extinction – overpop, tech can’t solve, and no mindset shift without dedev

William Powers, Summer 2011,(William Powers is a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. He has worked for more than a decade in development aid and conservation in Latin America, Africa, and Washington.)  World Policy Journal, "Finding Enough: Confessions of a secular missionary," Project Muse

Consider this radical notion: the environmental crisis

AND

essential for the very survival of our species.

alternative energy tech can’t solve: they need one nuclear power plant PER DAY to offset carbon emissions.  Reject their authors, they rely on faulty assumptions about technological progress

Cohen, 2010 (Dave, columnist for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, “Economic Growth and Climate Change – No Way Out?” February 2, http://peakwatch.typepad.com/peak_watch/2010/02/economy-and-climate-no-way-out.html)

Thus Garrett's work supports my conclusion that a

AND

longer in humanity's best interests to maintain it.

Water Wars Impact

Growth causes water overconsumption

Maude Barlow, Spring 2001. National Chairperson of the Council of Canadians and IFG Committee on the Globalization of Water. “BLUE GOLD: The Global Water Crisis and the Commodification of the World's Water Supply,” http://www.ratical.org/co-globalize/BlueGold.pdf.

Economic globalization's values of unlimited growth and increased

AND

to protect our water at the same time.

Water shortages lead to nuclear war and extinction

NASCA, National Association for Scientific and Cultural Appreciation, 2004, “Water shortages - Only a matter of time,” http://www.nasca.org.uk/Strange_relics_/water/water.html

Water Shortage According to the latest estimates nearly

AND

for which there will be no obvious answer.

The US is committed to Israel now, but the relationship is tense

Jackson 9/22/11 (David, writer for USA Today "Obama's relations changing with Israel, Palestinians" September 22, 2011 http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/09/obamas-relations-changing-with-israel-palestinians/1)

This week may some day be seen as

AND

in Egypt attacked the Israeli Embassy in Cairo.

Israel would backlash against US democracy assistance to Egypt

David Rothkopf, 11/25/11, Foreign Policy, "It is time to retire the term "Arab Spring," http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/25/it_is_time_to_retire_the_term_arab_spring#.TtPgsNr5fnk.email

Just the other day, Israeli Prime Minister

AND

saying it doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong.

The plan’s perception of US non-commitment radicalizes Israeli foreign policy and causes greater self-reliance

Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

More broadly, U.S. indecision

AND

destabilizing for both Israel and the United States.

Causes Israel to strike Iran

Parsi 9 (Trita, president of NIAC, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/trita-parsi/washington-can-give-an-is_b_373205.html) GAT

Only a few weeks after US-Iran

AND

Israel from taking actions that would endanger America.

Nuclear great power war

Trabanco 9 (Jose M. A., writer for Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762) GAT

In case of an Israeli and/or

AND

right in the middle of a powder keg.

Text: the United States federal government will hold a public referendum of whether or not to...

The CP solves the aff and internal-link turns the advantage – When the public is given real choices they are willing to change their mind on even the toughest issues

Joe Klein, 9/2/10, TIME, "How can a democracy solve tough problems?" http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2015481,00.html

"The public is very smart if you

AND

real consequences, they will make real decisions."

NATIONAL REFERENDUM SPURS GLOBAL DEMOCRATIZATION

David Magleby, political scientist, 1995 (COLORADO LAW REVIEW, Winter, p. 40) (PDOCSS2098)

The United States is one of only five

AND

, is to provide for a national initiative.

                The affirmative must identify the agent in the plan, the recipient of the assistance, and any other intermediaries that disburse the funds.The key debates in the literature are rooted in who disburses the aid and who receives the aid.  And, we aren’t just complaining – we have evidentiary support.

Carothers, direct of the democracy and rule of law project @ Carnegie Endowment, 2006

(Thomas, The role of non-governmental organizations in the development of democracy, Senate Hearing 109-844, June 8, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109shrg34274/html/CHRG-109shrg34274.htm)

Mr. Carothers. It is a very

AND

are carrying out a USAID-sponsored initiative.

Text: The United States Federal Government should increase funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to…

USFG should not provide technical assistance, NGOs should

McFaul, prof of political science @ Stanford and special assistant to Obama, 2010

(Michael, Advancing democracy abroad: why we should and how we can)

At the same time, the new department

AND

the State Department and White House as possible.

Huge negative perceptions mean USAID can’t solve

Thomas Carothers. 2009. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy assistance

the challenge of USAID.”

A core set of complaints emerges from this

AND

have been solidified and crucial local knowledge gained.

The 1AC has the wrong starting point- the notions of an inherent separation from power structures forecloses the possibility of connectivity to the larger community and social change

Aimee Carrillo Rowe (Ph. D Assistant Professor of Rhetoric at the University of Iowa. Her research and teaching emphasize feminist alliances, third world feminisms, whiteness, and antiracism. Her book in progress theorizes coalitional subjectivity by weaving a critical analysis of life stories of academic feminists with cultural theory and narrative nonfiction)  Be Longing: Toward a Feminist Politics of Relation  2005 by NWSA Journal NWSA Journal 17.2 (2005) 15-46 (Project Muse)

Mab Segrest has recently written, "what

AND

of belonging is constituative of the decolonial imaginary.

We must reject the notion that our location creates our identity- A politics of belonging is key to agency and combating dominant modes of exclusion

Aimee Carrillo Rowe (Ph. D Assistant Professor of Rhetoric at the University of Iowa. Her research and teaching emphasize feminist alliances, third world feminisms, whiteness, and antiracism. Her book in progress theorizes coalitional subjectivity by weaving a critical analysis of life stories of academic feminists with cultural theory and narrative nonfiction)  Be Longing: Toward a Feminist Politics of Relation  2005 by NWSA Journal NWSA Journal 17.2 (2005) 15-46 (Project Muse)

Interpellation may be read as a function of

AND

(re)produced as effects of power?

The alternative is to: START by recognizing of our position within the social web- “the political is the personal” - only through a politics of relations can we come to understand our own social location

Aimee Carrillo Rowe (Ph. D Assistant Professor of Rhetoric at the University of Iowa. Her research and teaching emphasize feminist alliances, third world feminisms, whiteness, and antiracism. Her book in progress theorizes coalitional subjectivity by weaving a critical analysis of life stories of academic feminists with cultural theory and narrative nonfiction)  Be Longing: Toward a Feminist Politics of Relation  2005 by NWSA Journal NWSA Journal 17.2 (2005) 15-46 (Project Muse)

My argument is that who we love is

AND

our belonging, and to envision an alternative.

Payroll Tax Cuts

Payroll tax extension will pass – only controversial legislation can derail it

Scott Wong. 1-16-12. “Payroll tax cut deal may come faster than expected.” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html.

The one-year payroll tax deal that

AND

, the central theme of his reelection campaign.

Assistance to Syria costs PC

Tabler and Karlin 11. [Andrew, Mara, Washington Institute writers, “Obama’s Push-Pull Strategy: How Washington Should Plan for a Post-Assad Syria” May 31 -- http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52111&pageid=&pagename=]

To further assist the Syrian opposition, Washington

AND

other words, not the current minority system).

PC will be key

Lots of work to do – pol cap key

Dirk Stemerman. 1-20-12. “Payroll tax cut showdown.” http://www.montereyherald.com/business/ci_19782116.

Last month, a crisis was averted less

AND

tax cut extension proponents make this same argument.

Payroll tax cut key to avoid a double dip

Washington Post, 9-8-11, p.

President Obama is expected to call for an

AND

, it will at least avert further degradation.

Causes a depression

CNN Money, 8-10-11, p.

Another recession could be even worse than the

AND

have virtually no policy effort to counteract it.

Nuclear war

Harris and Burrows, 09 – PhD in European History @ Cambridge and Counselor of the US National Intelligence Council AND Member of the National Intelligence Council’s Long Range Analysis Unit (Mathew J. and Jennifer, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” April, Washington Quarterly, )

Of course, the report encompasses more than

AND

a more dog-eat-dog world.

Russia DA

RUSSIA WILL NOT ABANDON SYRIA

Martin, 2012

(Patrick, Russia stands shoulder-to-shoulder with besieged Syrian leader, Jan 14,

)

Russia has served notice that it has no

AND

weapons customers, despite the increasing international pressure.

Russia is extremely worried and views Assad as its last chance to replace the US in the Middle East – any change in US strategy will result in backlash

Noe and Raad ‘11

[Nicholas and Walid, Sep 6, Iran and Russia Share a Syria Headache: Noe and Raad , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/iran-and-russia-share-a-syria-headache-noe-and-raad.html]

Unlike Iran, however, which can take

AND

commentators' usual wrath -- at least for now.

Russia will not accept being pushed aside in the Middle East and will push back and sabotage US efforts – they view plan as an existential threat

Stephen Blank (professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College) June 2006 “Russia and the US in the Middle East:  Policies and Contexts” http://se1.isn.ch:80/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=PublishingHouse&fileid=93B9D844-C74F-7E29-1C1C-0F0678DC8DF2&lng=en

More recently we can observe an apparent decisive

AND

deeply rooted emotional reaction in the population”.78

Russia will push back too hard in response to the plan causing nuclear war

Victor Baranets (writer for Defense and Security) July 20, 2007 “Will America Fight Russia?” L/N

Who will draw first blood? Sharavin:

AND

what US technologies and weapons are capable of.

Text: The government of Turkey will suspend its electricity exports to Syria.

CAUSES REGIME CHANGE WITHOUT CIVIL WAR

Dietz, 2011

(David, A recent Graduate of Georgetown University, David has returned to the region where he is writing about the unrest and revolutions in the Middle East for www.policymic.com and his own personal blog, Syrian Protesters Must Dismantle Bashar al-Assad From Within,

)

Ultimately America - at least for now -

AND

isolating Assad internationally and among his own people.

INTERNAL CRISES WILL CAUSE SYRIANS TO TURN AGAINST ASSAD

Bakri, 2011

(Nada, Sanctions Pose Growing Threat to Syria’s Assad, October 10,

)

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian economy is

AND

cities will eventually turn against Mr. Assad.

TURKEY CUT OFF WOULD HAVE an immediate IMPACT

Strauss, 2011

(Michael, Turkey’s Illuminating Threat to Turn Off Syria's Lights, November 18,

)

Turkey's threat to cut electricity exports to Syria

AND

control a new path for exerting diplomatic pressure.

Text: The European Union should increase political organization assistance to democratic opposition groups based in Syria.

The EU is capable of providing democracy assistance to MENA countries.

E. A. Fakhro, 2009, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, "The European Union and Islam: Democracy Promotion in Bahrain and the Arab World," http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Fakhro_low_2.pdf

Having examined both the influence of Islamist actors

AND

term ally and partner of the Arab world.

Hegemony is not sustainable – current trends show decline in all facets of US power.

Haas 8 (Richard, CFR pres., May/June, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87304/richard-n-haass/the-age-of-nonpolarity.html)

In this world, the United States is

AND

of nonpolarity as is the proliferation of weaponry.

One shot attempts at DA don’t increase cred – takes decades

Marina Ottaway, March 2003, Carnegie Endowment, "Promoting democracy i nthe middle east: the problem of US credibility,"

To play a more important role in the

AND

a set of obstacles specific to the region.

Giving assistance to one country won’t solve the credibility gap

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan,"

The Arab Spring provides the United States with

AND

as discrimination by US-backed Sunni rulers.

Hypocrisy hurts our credibility

Nicholson and Schaffer 2011

[Kailyn Nicholson and Anna Schaffer, edited by Stephanie Smith and Natalie Stockmann, The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion:

Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, Chapter 4: The Relationship between Rhetoric and Policy and its Implications for Effective Democracy Promotion.  https://digital.lib.washington.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1773/16487/Task%20Force%20C%202011%20Web.pdf?sequence=1] PLC

While the U.S. has unparalleled

AND

seen to be selective in its actual application.

Succession means no risk of conflict

Fackler, Martin. (New York Times)  December 19, 2011 Young Heir Faces Uncertain Transition in North Korea

Masao Okonogi, a specialist on North Korea

AND

the United States in order to buy time.”

US force primacy means no escalation

The Moscow Times, R. James Woolsey, former CIA director and Thomas McInerney retired Air Force Lieutenant General. 10/5/03

U.S. and South Korean forces

AND

Senate at his reconfirmation hearing on July 26.

No chance of a U.S.-China war – China is the most peaceful great power

Joshua Goldstein, September 2011, Foreign Policy, "Think Again: War,"

What about China, the most ballyhooed rising

AND

a single shot in battle in 25 years.

Turkey adv

Middle East conflict won’t escalate – local conflicts do not spillover

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

Finally, there is no precedent for Arab

AND

local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Israel won’t war without U.S. permission

Haaretz Service 11 [Syria: Israel would never declare war without U.S. permission]

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem denied

AND

reports that Syrian transfered advanced missiles to Hezbollah.

Won’t close the Strait of Hormuz

Erdbrink 12/28 [Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran unlikely to block oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz, analysts say”, The Washington Post, 12-28-2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/despite-threats-iran-unlikely-to-block-oil-shipments-through-strait-of-hormuz/2011/12/28/gIQAVSOSMP_story.html]

TEHRAN — The latest in a series of

AND

roughly a third of the world’s oil shipments.

Reserves check instability shocks

Gholz and Press ‘10 * Associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, AND ** Associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding (Eugene and Daryl G., Security Studies, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest”, 19: 3,  453 — 485 SW)

Note: Tables removed

Many countries maintain strategic petroleum stockpiles under the

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millions of barrels of oil to global markets.

No Iran strikes now

Efraim Inbar, Winter 2012, Middle East Quarterly, "The Arab Uprisings' Impact," Vol 19, Issue 1. ProQuest

Arab political upheaval has deflected attention away from

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an Israeli military attack to eliminate the threat.

Solvency

The regime will not collapse – Assad is resilient and will come out more powerful than ever

Leverett and Leverett ‘11

Sep 1, Flynt Leverett teaches international affairs at Penn State and is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation. Hillary Mann Leverett teaches at American University and is CEO of Strategic Energy and Global Analysis (STRATEGA), a political risk consultancy. , http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/01/iran-and-syria-americas-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again/]

First of all, it is far from

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and its interests—analysis by wishful thinking.

Supporting the opposition will fail – too fragmented

Patrick Seale, 8/24/11, The Nation, "Syria's Assad on the Ropes?"

If the regime has shown itself to be

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at least those inside Syria, fear arrest.

Supporting the opposition is not enough – Syria has to be rebuilt from the ground up

Patrick Seale, 8/24/11, The Nation, "Syria's Assad on the Ropes?"

The truth is that, as Tunisia and

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rethought, discarded or brought up to date.

1nc- Russia DA, PTC Politics, EU CP, Turkey CP, Blackout DA + Case arguments above

Block strat-

2nc- T, Turkey CP ( added plank to assist the Muslim Brotherhood), Obama Advantage, Solvency,

1nr- Turkey Cred ,EU CP, PTC, Russia Disad

2nr- Case, Turkey CP Russia DA