Whitman » Whitman Collier-Menzies Aff

Whitman Collier-Menzies Aff

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 19:22
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  • Swing 1AC

    • Tournament: Sample Tournament | Round: 1 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Sample Judge

    • 1AC

       

       

      1AC – Plan

       

      The United States federal government should increase its democratic civil society aid for opposition groups in Bahrain.

       

      1AC – Radicalization Advantage

      Inherency

      Even after the BICI report the Bahraini monarchy has failed to reform causing a spike in violence and anti-americanism

      Justin Gengler, PhD from UMich focusing on Bahrain, 1-1-2012, “Why 2012 Will Be a Lot Like 2011,” Religion and Politics, http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/why-2012-will-be-lot-like-2011.html

      The launching of the website comes at a

      AND

      Sitra now refer to the "Great Satan."

      Currently the monarchy is attacking Bahraini civil society – US action is necessary to solve

      Rasika Teredesai, Legal Fellow, Human Rights Defenders Program, 12-22-2011, “Organizations Targeted by Bahrain’s Repression,” Human Rights First, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/22/organizations-targeted-by-bahrain%E2%80%99s-repression/

      The government of Bahrain continues to interfere in

      AND

      be rewarded with an arms sale and US encouragement

       

      Iran

      Continued violence causes the opposition to seek Iranian backing – only reform can prevent their involvement

      Democracy Digest, 11-10-2011, “Bahrain needs anti-sectarian social compact,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/bahrain-needs-anti-sectarian-social-compact/

      Sectarianism has “dramatically eroded [Bahrain’s]

      AND

      they will surely be greeted with open arms.”

      Only US engagement prevents radicalization and a turn towards Iran

      Andrew Terrill, security analyst at the Strategic Studies Institute, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain

      The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after

      AND

      for anti-regime activity by illegal means.

      Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

      NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

      What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

      AND

      people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

      Iran Saudi war escalates

      Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

      As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

      AND

      complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

      Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war

      Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

      While U.S. and international attention

      AND

      national dialogue that charts the future of the country

      Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in

      Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm

      This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian

      AND

      assuming anyone is left to write about it.

      High risk

      James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

      AND

      , with substantial risk for the entire world.

      Terrorism

      No action has been taken to reverse US hypocrisy or move toward reforms, risking overthrow of the monarchy

      Josh Rogin, political analyst at Foreign Policy, 12-6-2011, “Is the US on the wrong side of Foreign Policy in Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/06/is_the_us_on_the_wrong_side_of_history_in_bahrain

      JR: What's the significance of the report

      AND

      movement to overthrow the government will increase.’

      US hypocrisy causes the opposition to radicalize and turn to Iran

      Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

      The US cannot continue to advertise its endorsement

      AND

      the rhetoric hollow to citizens of the region.

      That causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment

      Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

      Muslims see this narrative as being used to

      AND

      with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

      Radicalization spreads regionally

      Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

      Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

      AND

      many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

      Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons

      Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/

      Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The

      AND

      can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”

      Nuclear terrorism causes the same causalities and full scale nuke war and nuclear winter

      O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.

      To an increasing extent, people are congregating

      AND

      well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

      1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

      Inherency

      Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

      Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

      But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

      AND

      to encourage his quest and hope for success.

      US engagement ensures no base kick out

      Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

      Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

      AND

      to renew the American lease to the base.

      No alternative – Bahrain is key

      David Dietz, political analyst, 4-21-2011, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/

      Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the

      AND

      as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi.

      Naval Power

      5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

      Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

      American maritime strategy has played a major role

      AND

      needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

      Even the perception of kickout kills credibility

      Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-2006, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

      Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Thomas

      AND

      furthers diplomatic initiatives and contributes to economic development.

      Naval power independently solves great power wars

      James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf

      Deter major power war. No other disruption

      AND

      control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

      Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

      Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

      It is worth first examining the larger picture

      AND

      the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

      No one can fill in for US naval power

      Daniel Whiteneck et al, Research Analyst for NATO, Michael Price, Neil Jenkins, Peter Swartz, 3-2010, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?”, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf

      Second, no other country (or combination

      AND

      deplete their resources and political support at home.

      Solvency

      US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

      Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

      Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

      AND

      often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

       

      1AC – Solvency

      Only the US can produce change in Bahrain – perception that we support the opposition is key

      Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 12-1-2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” National Endowment for Democracy, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac

      Regrettably, though, Bahrain is not now

      AND

      can and should respond in a constructive way.

      US support for civil society causes successful BICI implementation and long term reforms

      Niccolo' Figa-Talamanca, Secretary-General of No Peace Without Justice, 11-22-2011, “Bahrain: one step forward or two steps back?,” No Peace Without Justice, http://www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html

      How the report turns out, and the

      AND

      for ensuring acknowledgement and justice for the victims.

      Implementing BICI recommendations is a critical first step towards reconciliation

      Harold Walker, former British Ambassador to Bahrain,  former Chairman of the Royal Society of Asian Affairs and former Chairman of the British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, 12-6-2011, “Bahrain after the BICI,” Conservative Middle East Council, http://cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/

      These truths matter. In April the American

      AND

      than reflecting the nature of the ruling regime.

      The US must act as a neutral brokers to create reconciliation

      POMED, 12-2-2011, “POMED Notes: “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” http://bahrainrights.org/en/node/4878

      On Thursday, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted

      AND

      suggested might be accomplished by releasing political prisoners.

      Without US action the opposition will discredit the reforms – US support gives the King credibility and prevents anti-americanism

      William Fisher, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Asia, 12-27-2011, “In Bahrain’s Hour of Peril, Where Does The U.S. Stand?,” The Public Record, http://pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/

      He added: “The reforms agreed to

      AND

      the top priority for US policy­-makers.

      The National commission wont block US support

      Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief, 12-1-2011, Bahrain's National Commission to seek local, international expertise,” http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/bahrain-s-national-commission-to-seek-local-international-expertise-1.941552

      Manama: The national commission set up by

      AND

      he said, quoted by Al Ayam daily.

      The government wont block

      Hasan Tariq Alhasan, political analyst, 12-6-2011, “Taxation: Bahrain's alternative path to political reform,” openDemocracy, http://www.opendemocracy.net/hasan-tariq-alhasan/taxation-bahrains-alternative-path-to-political-reform-0

      The kingdom will have to introduce political reforms

      AND

      gradual and less polarizing path to further democracy.

       

      engaging civil society prevents violent crackdowns that turn the Middle East into a powder keg—US involvement is key

      Sahar Aziz, Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan and Abdullah Musalem, Social Researcher in Bahrain,7-2011, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

      The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one

      AND

      it is in the United States’ national interest.

       


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09/05/11
  • 1AC

    • Tournament: WNPT | Round: 2 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • We sometimes cut the Fifth Fleet advantage and read pre-empts. We'll  tell you before the round if this is the case.

      1AC

       

       

      1AC – Plan

      The United States federal government should provide technical assistance for mediation for a legal reform dialogue between the Bahraini monarchy and opposition group leaders.

       

       

      1AC – Iran Advantage

      US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed – both sides want to return to the table

      ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

      By the end of February, the crown

      AND

      chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.

      Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable

      Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html

      The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini

      AND

      Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.

      Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest to gain influence in Bahrain

      ICG, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf

      At a broader level, and though it

      AND

      Shiites will turn to Iran for support.153

      Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing

      POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

      Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the

      AND

      European and American national interests to do so.

      Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

      NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

      What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

      AND

      people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

      Iran Saudi war escalates

      Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

      As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

      AND

      complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

      Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves

      Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

      While U.S. and international attention

      AND

      national dialogue that charts the future of the country

      Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in

      Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm

      This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian

      AND

      assuming anyone is left to write about it.

      High risk

      James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

      AND

      , with substantial risk for the entire world.

      Bahraini sectarian violence spills over to Saudi Arabia, triggering a US-Iran war

      Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”

      Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar

      AND

      to maintain stability but also their own power.

      Iran war causes global nuclear war

      Toff Daijgneault, staff writer, 8-10-2011, “Wars And Rumors of War---A Strategic View of Any Possible Future Western/israeli Military Strike in The Middle East,” Bukisa, http://www.bukisa.com/articles/369915_wars-and-rumors-of-war-a-strategic-view-of-any-possible-future-westernisraeli-military-strike-in-the-middle-east

      Looking at any potential future strike against Iran

      AND

      would become dragged in as Iran's strategic partners.

       

      US led dialogue creates credible reform and solves instability

      POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 6-29-2011, “Tensions in the Persian Gulf After the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/

      Hans Hogrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain

      AND

      .S. approach is “critically important.”

       

      1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

      Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

      Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

      But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

      AND

      to encourage his quest and hope for success.

      US cooperation ensures no base kick out

      Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

      Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

      AND

      to renew the American lease to the base.

      Fifth fleet presence prevents Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – cuts off global oil supply

      Stratfor, 7-1-2008, “Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”,

      The U.S. Fifth Fleet insisted

      AND

      a summary of how it would play out.

      US is key

      Craig Cohen, associate vice president for research and programs at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6-2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” CSIS, http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

      Beneath the surface, however, is an

      AND

      it in order to advance their own interests.

      Threat perceptions mean Iran will close the strait

      AFP, Agence France Press, 7-4-2011, “Iran ready to close strait of hormuz: general,” http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/iran-ready-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-general-2011-07-04-1.405814

      Iran is ready if threatened to close the

      AND

      is now on our agenda," said Jafari.

      Closing the Strait wrecks the global economy

      Geoffrey Gresh, PhD candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter 2010, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 34. 1

      Despite such a constricted and congested opening,

      AND

      .8 million barrels per day by 2030.

      Econ decline causes war

      Earl Tilford, PhD in history from George Washington University and served for thirty-two years as a military officer and analyst with the Air Force and Army, 2008, “Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship,” The Cedartown Standard, Lexis

      Could it happen again? Bourgeois democracy requires

      AND

      world could devolve to that point very quickly.

      Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities

      Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

      This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause

      AND

      departure from previous policy than the author implies.

      Bahrain is key – best position and infrastructure

      Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission at U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, 10-23-2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

      In concrete, practical terms, Bahrain’s port

      AND

      capabilities and through products and services procured locally.

      5th Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

      Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, 1-2010, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

      American maritime strategy has played a major role

      AND

      needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

      Naval power independently solves great power wars

      James T. Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” 10-2007, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf

      Deter major power war. No other disruption

      AND

      control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

      Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

      Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, 3-7-2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

      It is worth first examining the larger picture

      AND

      the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

      US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

      Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

      Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

      AND

      often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

      Bahraini government will listen to the US

      Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

      Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the

      AND

      more possible in a more stable domestic environment.

       

       

      1AC – Radicalization Advantage

      Now key – encouraging reform solves terrorism

      Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf

      Paradoxically, the Arab Spring represents a strategic

      AND

      do all that it can to seize it.

      Offering US mediation creates a legitimate dialogue, solving radicalization and stability

      Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

      While it may be possible for the US

      AND

      the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

      Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions – reconciliation soon is key

      Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-2011, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain

      The killing of a 14-year-

      AND

      entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.

      US hypocrisy causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment

      Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

      Muslims see this narrative as being used to

      AND

      with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

      Oppression in Bahrain causes regional radicalization

      Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

      Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

      AND

      many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

      Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons

      Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/

      Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The

      AND

      can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”

      Nuclear terrorism causes the same causalities and full scale nuke war and nuclear winter

      O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.

      To an increasing extent, people are congregating

      AND

      well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

      Draws in Russia and China

      Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

      A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

      AND

      might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

       





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