1AC – Iran Advantage

US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed – both sides want to return to the table

ICG, International Crisis Grou, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

By the end of February, the crown

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chance to bear fruit as the crisis intensified.

Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable

Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html

The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini

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Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.

Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest to gain influence in Bahrain

ICG, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf

At a broader level, and though it

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Shiites will turn to Iran for support.153

Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Al-Khawaja is also concerned about the

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European and American national interests to do so.

Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war

NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all

What if the Bahrain venture fails, who

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people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to

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complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war – only dialogue solves

Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers

While U.S. and international attention

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national dialogue that charts the future of the country

Middle East war goes Global

Herbert London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, 6-28-2010, “The coming crisis in the Middle East,” Hudson Institute, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

The coming storm in the Middle East is

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if one, falls, the tent collapses.

Saudi–Iran tensions escalate into a regional arms race

Bill Spindle, political analyst, and Margaret Coker, political analyst, 4-16-2011, “The New Cold War”, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html

 For three months, the Arab world

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feel pressure to develop one of its own.

Middle East arms race destabilizes the region and causes nuclear war

Joseph Cirincione, fellow at the CAP, 8-21-2007, "The Middle East Nuclear Surge," http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/08/nuclear_surge.html

Iran is still probably five to 10 years

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, this is a recipe for nuclear war.

Bahraini sectarian violence spills over to Saudi Arabia, triggering a US-Iran war

Zenonas Tziarras, Specialist in International Security, 3-13-2011, Global Politics, “http://www.global-politics.co.uk/blog/2011/03/13/bahrain/,”

Even though the revolution in Bahrain has similar

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to maintain stability but also their own power.

Impact – Iran Strike causes nuclear escalation – ends the world

Jorge Hirsch, Professor of physics at the University of California San Diego, 2-20-2006, http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8577

The U.S. has just declared

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made by each and every one of us.

US led dialogue creates credible reform and solves instability

POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 6-29-2011, “Tensions in the Persian Gulf After the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/

Hans Hogrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain

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.S. approach is “critically important.”

1AC – Fifth Fleet Advantage

US not moving fifth fleet now

Hussain Abdulla, political commentator, 7-21-2011, “'US fleet move from Bahrain is a rumor',” PressTV, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/190082.html

Press TV: The US is widely criticized

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completely ignoring the human rights issues in Bahrain. 

Continued violence makes keeping the base untenable

Thomas W. Lippman, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, 8-4-2011, “Washington’s uneasy alliance with Bahrain,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-uneasy-alliance-with-bahrain/2011/08/03/gIQATWw5uI_story.html

But maintaining the relationship amounts to a strategic

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to encourage his quest and hope for success.

US cooperation ensures no base kick out

Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, 2-18-2011, “The realist prism: Middle East Democracies can be US friends,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7932/the-realist-prism-middle-east-democracies-can-be-u-s-friends

Over in Bahrain, the fall of the

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to renew the American lease to the base.

US Gulf presence deters Iran heg

Reva Bhalla, Director of Analysis at Stratfor , 7-19-2011, “The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics,” Right Side News, http://www.rightsidenews.com/2011071914093/world/geopolitics/the-us-saudi-dilemma-irans-reshaping-of-persian-gulf-politics.html

So far, Iran’s plan is on track

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. support for the Sunni Arabs against Iran.

Iranian adventurism leads to nuclear war

Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance

That Iran stands today able to challenge or

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severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Fifth fleet presence prevents Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – cuts off global oil supply

Stratfor, 7-1-2008, “Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”, http://www.stratfor.com/node/119249/analysis/iran_threat_strait_hormuz

The U.S. Fifth Fleet insisted

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a summary of how it would play out.

Threat perceptions mean Iran will close the strait

AFP, Agence France Press, 7-4-2011, “Iran ready to close strait of hormuz: general,” http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/iran-ready-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-general-2011-07-04-1.405814

Iran is ready if threatened to close the

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is now on our agenda," said Jafari.

Closing the Strait wrecks the global economy

Geoffrey Gresh, PhD candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Winter 2010, “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 34. 1

Despite such a constricted and congested opening,

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.8 million barrels per day by 2030.

Econ decline causes war

Earl Tilford, PhD in history from George Washington University and served for thirty-two years as a military officer and analyst with the Air Force and Army, 2008, “Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship,” The Cedartown Standard, Lexis

Could it happen again? Bourgeois democracy requires

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world could devolve to that point very quickly.

Forward basing key – Iran has too many area denial capabilities

Daniel Trombly, political analyst, 6-11-2011, “the unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet,” http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

This treats the Fifth Fleet as a cause

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departure from previous policy than the author implies.

Bahrain is key – best position and infrastructure

Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission at U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, 10-23-2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

In concrete, practical terms, Bahrain’s port

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capabilities and through products and services procured locally.

US political engagement in Bahrain maintains US basing and deterrence credibility

Bases Alexander Cooley, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College,  and Daniel H. Nexon, assistant professor in both the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 4-5-2011, “Bahrain's Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about

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often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

Bahraini government will listen to the US

Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the

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more possible in a more stable domestic environment.

1AC – Radicalization Advantage

Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions – reconciliation soon is key

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-2011, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain

The killing of a 14-year-

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entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.

US hypocrisy causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment

Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

So it is particularly infuriating to Muslims when

AND

with the Muslim world will become more amicable.

Oppression in Bahrain causes regional radicalization

Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417

Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain

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many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.

Sustained crackdown causes radicalization and terrorism

Hussein Ibish, Senior Research Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine (ATFP) and Executive Director of the Hala Salaam Maksoud Foundation for Arab-American Leadership, 4-14-2011, “Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat,” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/is_bahrain_creating_a_new_terrorist_threat?page=0,1

A campaign of violence by opposition extremists might

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to avoid this is dwindling by the day.

Terrorism causes extinction – draws in Russia and China

Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

AND

might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Preventing Shia radicalization is the best way to undermine regional terrorism

Ed Husain, senior fellow at the council on Foreign Relations, 1-30-2011, “How should the U.S. respond to the protests in the Middle East?,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012805611.html

I've lived and traveled across the Arab world

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? Yes, it can. It must.

Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons

Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/

Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The

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can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”

Deterrence doesn’t apply

George Shultz, secretary of state from 1982 to 1989, William Perry, secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997,Henry Kissinger, secretary of state from 1973 to 1977, and Sam Nunn, former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee,  1-4-2007, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116787515251566636.html

Nuclear weapons today present tremendous dangers, but

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years as we were during the Cold War?

Offering US mediation creates a legitimate dialogue, solving radicalization and stability

Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

While it may be possible for the US

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the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should offer to mediate a high level dialogue with the Bahraini government and opposition group leaders.

1AC – Status Quo
Even after the BICI report the Bahraini monarchy has failed to reform causing a spike in violence and anti-americanism
Justin Gengler, PhD from UMich focusing on Bahrain, 1-1-2012, “Why 2012 Will Be a Lot Like 2011,” Religion and Politics, http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/why-2012-will-be-lot-like-2011.html
The launching of the website comes at a
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Sitra now refer to the "Great Satan."
Currently the monarchy is attacking Bahraini civil society – US action is necessary to solve
Rasika Teredesai, Legal Fellow, Human Rights Defenders Program, 12-22-2011, “Organizations Targeted by Bahrain’s Repression,” Human Rights First, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/22/organizations-targeted-by-bahrain%E2%80%99s-repression/
The government of Bahrain continues to interfere in
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be rewarded with an arms sale and US encouragement

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should increase its democratic civil society aid for opposition groups in Bahrain.
1AC – Iran
Continued violence causes the opposition to seek Iranian backing – only reform can prevent their involvement
Democracy Digest, 11-10-2011, “Bahrain needs anti-sectarian social compact,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/bahrain-needs-anti-sectarian-social-compact/
Sectarianism has “dramatically eroded [Bahrain’s]
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they will surely be greeted with open arms.”
Only US engagement prevents radicalization and a turn towards Iran
Andrew Terrill, security analyst at the Strategic Studies Institute, 8-2-2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain
The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after
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for anti-regime activity by illegal means.
Iranian intervention causes Saudi-Iran war
NYT, 3-19-2011, “The Proxy Battle in Bahrain,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/weekinreview/20proxy.html?pagewanted=all
What if the Bahrain venture fails, who
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people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”
Iran Saudi war escalates
Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf
As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to
AND
complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.
Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes a Middle East war
Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers
While U.S. and international attention
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national dialogue that charts the future of the country
Middle East war causes extinction – nuclear, biological, chemical weapons use and major power draw in
Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm
This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian
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assuming anyone is left to write about it.
High risk of escalation – asymmetric warfare, non-state actors, deterrence fails, no framework for cooperation, miscalc
James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
AND
, with substantial risk for the entire world.
 
1AC – Radicalization
No action has been taken to reverse US hypocrisy or move toward reforms, risking overthrow of the monarchy
Josh Rogin, political analyst at Foreign Policy, 12-6-2011, “Is the US on the wrong side of Foreign Policy in Bahrain,” Foreign Policy, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/06/is_the_us_on_the_wrong_side_of_history_in_bahrain
JR: What's the significance of the report
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movement to overthrow the government will increase.’
 

US hypocrisy causes the opposition to radicalize
Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9
The US cannot continue to advertise its endorsement
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the rhetoric hollow to citizens of the region.
That causes anti-Americanism and terrorist recruitment
Steven Kull, political analyst, 9-5-2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
Muslims see this narrative as being used to
AND
with the Muslim world will become more amicable.
 

Radicalization spreads regionally
Doyle McManus, political analyst, 4-17-2011, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417
Why does all this matter? Because Bahrain
AND
many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.
Terrorists can steal nuclear weapons
Christina MacPherson, staff writer, 5-30-2011, “Fears of terrorist nuclear jihad, following Taliban raid on Pakistan naval base,” Nuclear News, http://nuclear-news.net/2011/05/30/fears-of-terrorist-nuclear-jihad-following-taliban-raid-on-pakistan-naval-base/
Signalling the launch of nuclear jihad!, The
AND
can be mated quickly if necessary in crises.”
Nuclear terrorism causes the same causalities as full-scale nuclear war
O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.
To an increasing extent, people are congregating
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well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Draws in Russia and China – leads to global nuke war
Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the
AND
might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

1AC – Solvency
Only the US can produce change in Bahrain – perception that we support the opposition is key
Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 12-1-2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” National Endowment for Democracy, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac
Regrettably, though, Bahrain is not now
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can and should respond in a constructive way.
US support for civil society causes BICI implementation and long term reform
Niccolo' Figa-Talamanca, Secretary-General of No Peace Without Justice, 11-22-2011, “Bahrain: one step forward or two steps back?,” No Peace Without Justice, http://www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html
How the report turns out, and the
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for ensuring acknowledgement and justice for the victims.
Implementing BICI recommendations is a critical first step towards reconciliation
Harold Walker, former British Ambassador to Bahrain,  former Chairman of the Royal Society of Asian Affairs and former Chairman of the British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, 12-6-2011, “Bahrain after the BICI,” Conservative Middle East Council, http://cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/
These truths matter. In April the American
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than reflecting the nature of the ruling regime.
 

The US must act as a neutral broker to create reconciliation
POMED, 12-2-2011, “POMED Notes: “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” http://bahrainrights.org/en/node/4878
On Thursday, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted
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suggested might be accomplished by releasing political prisoners.
Without US action the opposition will discredit the reforms – US support gives the King credibility and prevents anti-americanism
William Fisher, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Asia, 12-27-2011, “In Bahrain’s Hour of Peril, Where Does The U.S. Stand?,” The Public Record, http://pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/
He added: “The reforms agreed to
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the top priority for US policy­-makers.
 

The National Commission won’t block US support
Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief, 12-1-2011, Bahrain's National Commission to seek local, international expertise,” http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/bahrain-s-national-commission-to-seek-local-international-expertise-1.941552
Manama: The national commission set up by
AND
he said, quoted by Al Ayam daily.
The government won’t block
Hasan Tariq Alhasan, political analyst, 12-6-2011, “Taxation: Bahrain's alternative path to political reform,” openDemocracy, http://www.opendemocracy.net/hasan-tariq-alhasan/taxation-bahrains-alternative-path-to-political-reform-0
The kingdom will have to introduce political reforms
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gradual and less polarizing path to further democracy.