Offcase
1NC PTC
PTC will pass and is Obama’s sole focus
Carol E. Lee, staff writer, 12-31-2011, "White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda," WSJ, ProQuest.
HONOLULU—President Barack Obama heads into 2012 with a legislative agenda that essentially consists
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his now-familiar message of being a champion of the middle class.
Plan costs PC
Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Doha Center, 1-27-2011, "Tunisia, Egypt, Arab world need bold US support for democracy, not mixed messages," Jewish World Review, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0111/middle_east_democracy.php3
These actions have a clear intent — to protect the stability of a state perceived
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Arab democracy needs advocates. Oddly, they’ve become more difficult to find.
PC key
Mail Online UK, "’I won’t take no for an answer on jobs bill’: Defiant Obama vows to continue despite Senate defeat," 10-13-2011, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048604/Obama-I-wont-answer-Jobs-bill.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
President Barack Obama has recorded a defiant new campaign video after his jobs bill was
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52 per cent of Americans now back the bill, according to SBS.
1NC PTC – Econ Module
Key to economy
Patrice Hill, staff writer, 12-28-2011, "Economists fear withdrawal symptoms if payroll-tax cut vanishes," The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/28/economists-fear-withdrawal-symptoms-if-payroll-tax/?page=all~~%23pagebreak
It was the tax cut that nobody noticed when Congress enacted it a year ago
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disappear altogether in the first quarter after it is withdrawn, analysts estimate.
That causes nuke war—-bipartisan economic solutions are key
Khalilzad 11 Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Econom and National Security" Feb 8 www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/259024
Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
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leading the world toward a new, dangerous era of multi-polarity.
1NC Russia CP
Russia should:
publicly support a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing Member States to take all necessary measures to assist democratic opposition in Syria, publicly back any United States or European Union led measures on Syria and publicly support a pro-Western democratic government in Syria.
should provide political training and support to Syrian democratic groups and invite the United States to take the lead role in the program.
remove warships from the Middle East, including the Eastern Mediterranean.
close its military base in Tartus.
Russian agreement on the UN resolution would bring down the regime – gets China on board, and Syria knows they’d be toast
Leif Eriksson, former head in Swedish Embassy in Damascus, 12-29-2011, "Syria: The Damascus Bomb Blasts," Other Suns, http://othersuns.wordpress.com/-http://othersuns.wordpress.com/
It is not as if the Syrian regime opened its arms to the Arab League
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wide open to whatever far going resolution that USA and EU might introduce.
UN action on Syria is decisive
AFP, 7-13-2011, "West piles pressure for UN action on Syria," The Raw Story, http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/13/west-piles-pressure-for-un-action-on-syria/
Western governments ratcheted up the pressure for UN Security Council action against Syria on Wednesday
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is crucial," German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told journalists in New York.
1NC Obama Good 2012
Obama wins
David Gergen, staff writer, 12-29-2011, "Why the winds are shifting toward Obama," CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/22/opinion/gergen-obama-resurgence/index.html?hpt=op_r1
Even though House Republicans are now wisely folding their tents, their disarray this week
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easy re-election. No one should doubt that could happen again.
Further support for democratization gets spun as foreign policy weakness
Gordon Robison, Middle East journalist and US political analyst, teaches political science at the University of Vermont, 12-28-2011, "Fearmongering over Arab Spring," Gulf News, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/fearmongering-over-arab-spring-1.957751
As bellicose as the Republican hopefuls are regarding Israel and Iran, their positions on
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in the region for fear of being called weak during an election year.
Obama currently controls foreign policy which is key – 1 failure is sufficient to reshape the narrative
Michael Cohen, staff writer, 11-16-2011, "The New National Security Party," Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/16/the_new_national_security_party?page=0,2
If there is one piece of conventional wisdom that defines the 2012 campaign cycle thus
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a political boost that wouldn’t exist in the same way for a Republican.
Obama Good – CTBT
Obama’s pushing to ratify CTBT – his defeat crushes the initiative
Chris Schneidmiller ,"Senate Decision Key to Future of Test Ban Treaty," Global Security Newswire, 7-18-11, http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20110714_9351.php
The Obama administration is preparing for a lobbying campaign that could determine the future of
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year, the pact would almost certainly remain frozen in place in Washington.
US Ratification Is Key To Prevent Global Prolif and Nuke War.
Ian Davis, Co-Executive Director of the British American Security Information Council, "Getting the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Back on Track" 05-11-2009.
This can’t happen too soon. North Korea has marched through the open door with
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and European political agenda and move to secure ratification by other key states.
1NC Qatar
The United States federal government should privately ask Qatar to provide political training and support to Syrian democratic groups
The counterplan solves sectarianism and credibility
Matthew Mainen, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 7-25-2011, Mainen Middle East Analysis, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html-http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html
The United States cannot sit on the sidelines as Saudi Arabia helps shape Syria’s future
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-Iranian conflict and renewed U.S. influence in the region.
Qatar has comparative advantages—the US must encourage them to take a lead role
O’Sullivan, Professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government %26 Former National Security Adviser, , 10-4-2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/tiny-qatar-s-big-plans-may-change-u-s-mideast-policy-meghan-o-sullivan.html
Qatar, a country of fewer than 2 million people set on a peninsula smaller
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organization in Egypt and Libya, while Qatar foots more of the bill.
The power vacuum left by a limited US role has allowed Qatar to seize leadership and bolster their regional credibility
Economist, 11-5-2011, "The rise of Qatar: Pygmy with the punch of a giant", http://www.economist.com/node/21536659
In any event, Qatar punches far above its weight: witness its recent proclaimed
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reward in September, has soared on the back of such a success.
Qatari leadership key to stabilize Afghanistan
Hughes, Foreign Policy Strategist, New World Strategies Coalition, 11-3-2011,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-hughes/qatar-west-relations_b_1073374.html
I came to appreciate the depth of Qatar’s global influence while covering the Doha Inter
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moderate and conservative factions across Afghan society’s ethnic, tribal and sectarian mosaic.
That prevents global nuclear war
Stephen John, former National Executive Officer of the British Labour Party, his responsibilities included international relations, ethnic minority work, women’s issues, finance, local government and organization, he specialised particularly in international crisis situations spending long periods working in Belfast, in efforts to overcome sectarian strife and terrorism, former Director of WIC, a research and publishing company based in London, he went to live in Budapest during the Gorbachov period from where he helped build opposition groups in the underground in Hungary, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and East Germany, Stephen left active politics in the early 1990 and came to live in Brussels, where he established and managed his own publishing company, has lived and worked in more than 27 different countries, including underground political work during the troubles in in Northern Ireland and war in Yugoslavia, 2007, http://www.electricarticles.com/display.aspx?id=639)
Although disliked and despised in many quarters, the Taliban could not advance without the
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slogan of «Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan%21
ADV 1
Iran
AT: Iran Prolif
Nuclear Terrorism===
Iran wouldn’t give nukes to terrorists
James Lindsay, CFR’s Director of Studies, and Ray Takeyh, an Iranian-American Middle East scholar, former United States Department of State official, and a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 4-2010, "After Iran Gets the Bomb," Foreign Affairs, 89.2
The prospect that Iran might transfer a crude nuclear device to its terrorist protégés is
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confrontation with the United States are likely to deter Iran from acting impetuously.
A. Checks and balances in Iranian system prevent individuals from making dangerous decisions
Stratfor 6-11-2009 "Iran: A Presidential Election and Metamorphosis", http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090610_iran_presidential_election_and_metamorphosis
It is because of this very complexity that the forthcoming presidential vote — perhaps the
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been skillfully manipulated by various stakeholders to serve their individual and collective interests.
B. Iran not adventurist
Mehrzad Boroujerdi and Todd Fine, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, 2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA
The acquisition of nuclear weapons would also solidify Iran’s claims to being a core regional
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electricity generation, and diversifying energy sources through nuclear power are equally rational.
Iran doesn’t have nukes
Patrick Disney, grad student focusing on Iran and nuclear npt at Yale, former Assistant Policy Director for the National Iranian American Council, 08-02-2011, "Is Iran Really After a Nuclear Bomb?," The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/is-iran-really-after-a-nuclear-bomb/242900/-http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/is-iran-really-after-a-nuclear-bomb/242900/
Iran’s government therefore has to make an active choice to build the bomb. And
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seems that Tehran has chosen not to cross the nuclear threshold. Yet.
D. No risk of miscalc – multilayered decision making bodies check high risk behavior
Mehrzad Boroujerdi and Todd Fine, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, 2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA
The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted by the existence of multiple consensus-
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prospect of Iran engaging in a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.
AT: Terrorism
Conventional retaliation is most likely
David Sanger and Thom Shanker, New York Times Staff Writers, 5-8-2007, "U.S. Debates Deterrence for Nuclear Terrorism," NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/washington/08nuke.html?_r=2%26pagewanted=all%26oref=slogin
Among the subjects of the meeting last year was whether to issue a warning to
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, far more likely, a nonnuclear retaliation, whether military or diplomatic.
No Iran heg
Simon Tisdall, staff writer, 5-17-2011, "Iran has been isolated by the Arab spring," Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/17/iran-arab-spring
Snap judgments in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran would be a main beneficiary of the
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well to ponder: "Whether Cairo or Tehran, death to tyrants%21"
Russia
Demographics doom Russian expansion
Ben Heineman, senior fellow in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School and a senior fellow at Harvard Law School’s Programs on Corporate Governance and the Legal Profession, 10-12-2011, "Is Russia Still Dying?," Power %26 Policy, http://www.powerandpolicy.com/2011/10/12/is-russia-still-dying/?utm_source=powerandpolicy%26utm_medium=Power+%26+Policy%26utm_campaign=feed
The continued high mortality in working age people compared to many other nations — certainly
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especially among workers, will continue, even if at slightly slower rate?
Russia is too weak to do anything
Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow center, 10-17-2011, "RIP Russian Empire," Carnegie Endowment, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/17/rip-russian-empire/5z71
There will be no return to the Russian Empire. The Russian Empire is dead
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, which is the historical empire of Russia, collapsed twenty years ago.
Russia wont be expansionist
Sherle R. Schwenninger, director of the New America Foundation’s Economic Growth and American Strategy Programs, 10-6-2008, "Ten National Security Myths" New America Foundation, The Nation, http://www.newamerica.net/node/8775
First, Russia’s foreign policy has not been anti-American. Moscow has cooperated
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mutual interests and compromise, not simply on Russian acquiescence in American dictates.
) Give a Russia war impact zero probability – politics, military superiority, economic concerns, and nuclear security all check war
Thomas Graham, senior advisor on Russia in the US National Security Council staff 2002-2007, September 2007, "Russia in Global Affairs" July - September 2007, The Dialectics of Strength and Weakness
An astute historian of Russia, Martin Malia, wrote several years ago that "
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while laying the basis for more constructive long-term relations with Russia.
ADV 2
1NC AT: Credibility
Single instances do not change international perceptions
Christopher Fettweis, professor of political science at Tulane, Credibility and the War on Terror, Winter 2008, Political Science Quarterly, Ingenta.
There is actually scant evidence that other states ever learn the right lessons. ColdWar
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to a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably failed.
Obama is allergic to soft power – won’t use it even if he has it
Mark Lagon, staff writer, 10-18-2011, "Soft Power Under Obama," ISN, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en%26id=133416%26contextid734=133416%26contextid735=133415%26tabid=133415%26dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233
One irony of the Obama presidency is how much it relies on hard power
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as he gives tardy rhetorical support for popular forces casting aside other ones.
No short-term decline —- no challengers and soft power is too resilient
Joseph Nye, Soft Power Expert and Distinguished Prof @ Harvard, Nov/Dec 2010, "The Future of American Power," Foreign Affairs, Ebsco
Any net assessment of American power in the coming decades will remain uncertain, but
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share overlapping social and governmental networks with it that provide opportunities for cooperation.
Aid cuts tank US credibility
Susan Cornwell, staff writer, 8-7-2011, "Obama’s "smart power" plan risks death of 1,000 cuts," News Daily, http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre78613g-us-usa-budget-power/
WASHINGTON, Sep. 7, 2011 (Reuters) — President Barack Obama’s pledge
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and they could have a devastating impact on the work that we do."
AT: Heg – Transition Wars
Nothing can trigger a transition – the liberal order has an unbreakable foundation
John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, "A World of Our Making," Democracy, Issue ~%2321, http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=2
Fourth, all the great powers have alignments of interests that will continue to bring
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politics, there are deep forces that keep the system anchored and stable.
The transition is peaceful – competitors will integrate not challenge
John Ikenberry, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Jan/Feb 2008, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West; Can the Liberal System Survive?" Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, Iss. 1; pg. 23.
That course, however, is not inevitable. The rise of China does not
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order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join.
AT: Heg – Global Problems
Withdraw doesn’t disrupt trade, cause terror, or great power war.
Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 8-3-2010, "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?" http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
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in their own defense, and in the security of their respective regions.
AT: Heg – Great Power War
No transition wars – nuclear deterrence and liberal democracies
John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, Summer 2011, "A World of Our Making," Democracy, Issue ~%2321, http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=2
There are four reasons to think that some type of updated and reorganized liberal international
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order is removed, a bias for continuity is introduced into the system.
Solvency
SQ Solves
US assistance to the Syrian opposition is inevitable
Josh Rogin, 12-28-2011, "Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition," Foreign Policy, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition
As the violence in Syria spirals out of control, top officials in President Barack
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was being intentionally cautious out of concern about what comes next in Syria.
Kiss Of Death
Plan destroys legitimacy of on the ground movements and fractures coalitions – delegitimizes groups
Peter Harling, Harling is tfrom behind. But the reason we are being so cautious is because when you look at the possible ramifications, it’s mindboggling."
The plan crushes legitihe Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group, 8-30-2011, "how to not prolong the Syrian agony" http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony
The second mistake to be avoided is for the West to engage with members of
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trend, off-putting to most Syrians, ought not be encouraged.
Say No
Opp says no
Kevin Gosztola, 8-8-2011, "US Lacks Credibility to Help Syrian Protesters",
http://dissenter.firedoglake.com/2011/08/08/us-lacks-credibility-to-help-syrian-protesters/
A number of the cables indicate Syrian organizers have opposed the US government’s interest in
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their claims" and also resolve the issue of the occupied Golan Heights.
Crackdown Turn
Direct intervention causes worse crackdown – results in regional conflict
Ausama Monajed, leading Syrian dissident and publisher of Syrian Revolution News, 6-26-2011, "In Syria, an opening for the West to bring about Assad’s downfall," Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syria-an-opening-for-the-west-to-bring-about-assads-downfall/2011/06/24/AGz4hcmH_story.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syria-an-opening-for-the-west-to-bring-about-assads-downfall/2011/06/24/AGz4hcmH_story.html
Additionally, Western leaders know that Syrians will not accept direct intervention and that imposing
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this month has brought a revival of anti-American attacks in Iraq.
Yes Assad
Assad collapse isn’t imminent – lots of support, no defections, and entrenched positions
Afro-Middle East Centre, 1-6-2012, "Unravelling the Syrian crisis," Int’l Movement for a Just World, http://www.just-international.org/index.php?option=com_content%26view=article%26id=5053:unravelling-the-syrian-crisis%26catid=45:recent-articles%26Itemid=123
Despite seven months of sustained protests and fighting, it is clear that the Syrian
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polarisation, with sectarianism rife and violence becoming an accepted option for many.
Outline TO Pull
Slvency:
LFB Answers
Can’t save Regime, too late
Kiss of Death
Say No
Opposiiton not unified (Fullerton file in Turkey section)
A1
No iran heg
No iran nukes
Iran rationa/not aggressive
No nuclear terror
No retal
Yes assad
No US-Russia war
Syria not key – Russian motivation still exists
No ME war
A2
Cred thesis is wrong
Alt-causes to cred
LFB not bad
Hard power high
No rogues impact
