Strong youth movement is key to ensure Saleh sticks to the GCC agreement

Keyrouz, 12-5-11

(Wissam, “Revolution not over yet: Power transfer deal fails to convince Yemenis,” )

But it is Al-Islah... the initiative," said Saqqaf

Yemen is key test of GCC credibility and influence

Dorsey, 4-24-11

(James, “Yemen and Syria put credibility of the international community on the line,” )

Escalating violence in Syria… in a host of Syrian cities

Strong GCC is vital to countering and limiting Iranian influence

Al Gergawi, 4-4-11

(Mishaal, “Containing Iran, a GCC strategy,” )

The GCC's new Secretary-General… by those who show up

Unchecked Iranian influence leads to nuclear war

Ben-Meir, 2-7-07

(Alon, “Ending Iran's defiance,” )

The fact that Iran… inadvertent nuclear conflagration

Strong GCC is vital to overall regional stability

Al Asoomi, 12-23-11

(Mohammad, “GCC moving in right direction,” )

The Gulf Cooperation … contributing to stability in the entire region.

Gulf stability is key to the global economy

Alsis, Allison, and Cordesman, 11-16-11

(Peter, Marissa, and Anthony, “US and Iranian Strategic Competition in the Gulf States and Yemen,” )

The Gulf is the … completion in the Gulf.

Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support

Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010

(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

Less intuitive is how… considered ancillary to those views.

Use the button to Add an Entry.

Use the second box for cites formatted with wiki syntax or plain text, such as that exported from Verbatim 4.

Political instability in Yemen causes rampant small arms proliferation

Makovsky, Misztal, and Ruhe, Bipartisan Policy Center, 11

(Michael, Blaise, and Jonathan, “Fragility and Extremism in Yemen,” January 2011, )

Another security problem… open [on] street corners

Yemen instability is a massive contributor to small arms proliferation throughout the region

Atarodi, 10

(Alexander, “Yemen in Crisis-Consequences for the Horn of Africa,” March 2010, )

The instability caused… activities across the Mandab Strait

Yemen arms circulation creates a culture of violence that is the most likely scenario for escalation

Zein, 07

(Ahmed, “Armed and Dangerous: Arms Proliferation Inside Yemen,” )

The proliferation of small arms… in Yemeni organized crime

Small arms proliferation effects every global problem and is the biggest impact in the round

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 06

(“In-depth: Guns Out of Control: the continuing threat of small arms,” )

The Small Arms Survey estimated… were severely affected by conflict

Yemen is a unique focal network for arms spread- leaked intelligence shows it’s supplying the most dangerous groups in the region- governmental cooperation is key

The Telegraph, 2-3-11

(“(S) ELICITING YEMENI COOPERATION FOR ARMS SMUGGLING INTERDICTION EFFORTS,” Classified Wikileaks documents from Clinton passed on to The Telegraph, )

(S/REL ROYG) Points for… possibly elsewhere. End Text. CLINTON

Combating youth grievances is key to curb the small arms trade in Yemen

Atarodi, 10

(Alexander, “Yemen in Crisis-Consequences for the Horn of Africa,” March 2010, )

According to a UN report… practicing the arms trade

Curbing arms spread at the local level is key to resolve conflict and cause a positive spillover effect- this has empirical support in Morocco and Lebanon

Martin, 05

(Josh, “Small arms trigger alarms: guns kill more Arabs every year than all terrorist bombs, air raids and military incursions combined. Can the cycle of tribal or insurgent violence be ended? A new report suggests it can,” )

According to the recently… and the United Arab Emirates.

We’re on the brink of a huge LNG supply shortage

LNG Reports, 12-1-11

(“Global LNG Market Short and Long Term Outlook: Trends, Drivers and Forecasts of Supply, Demand, Capacity, Trade and Contracts to 2020,” )

LNGReports new report … million tonnes in 2014.

Instability and violence threatens Yemeni LNG production

Reuters, 3-22-11

(“UPDATE 4-Yemen unrest may hit LNG export, no impact yet-Total,” )

Widespread civil unrest …on the line last year.

Yemen sits at a key LNG access point in the Indian Ocean

Total, 11

(French multinational oil company, “Yemen LNG, driving the country’s development,” )

A strategically important …our oil and gas sales.

Yemen is uniquely positioned to satisfy global LNG demand—it has tons of excess capacity and accesses every major market

Kurmanaev, 10-17-10

(Anatoly, “Decrypting Yemen’s LNG Future,” )

A year ago Yemen joined …to meet this demand.

LNG shortages cause massive investment in methane-hydrate gases

National Energy Technology Laboratory, 06

(“All About Hydrates,” )

By 1999, the growing …projects within this program.

That’s the most probable scenario for extinction

Sassoon, 5-20-10

(David, “Did Deepwater methane hydrates cause the BP Gulf explosion?,” )

The vast deepwater… just getting to know.

Relations 1AC

Saleh has left Yemen for medical treatment in the U.S. but his family still holds the reins of power

AP, 1-23-12

(“Yemen: Mutinies spread to 4 air bases, a day after president’s departure,” )

SANAA, Yemen — A wave of mutinies demanding the… the deal and cling to power.

Allowing Saleh to come here jeopardizes future relations with Yemen—tanking counter-terrorism cooperation against AQAP—plan solves by sending the signal that the U.S. government isn’t pro-Saleh

Peter, 1-23-12

(Tom, “Yemen's President Saleh departs for US, apparently ending his rule,” CSM, )

Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh gave… the original Al Qaeda based in Pakistan.

Increased U.S. engagement with the opposition is key to sustained counter-terrorism cooperation and reduced domestic support for AQAP

Foust, 12-30-11

(Joshua, “Unaccountable Killing Machines: The True Cost of U.S. Drones,” )

In Yemen, the insistence on drone…CT policy there requires.

Immediate U.S. democracy assistance to Yemen is key to send the signal that Saleh isn’t our man anymore

Labott, 1-24-12

(Elise, “Obama's Yemeni snake dance,” )

Outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah… visit, Saleh is no longer their man

Strong U.S. support for the youth movement is key to creating pro-American perceptions inside Yemen—this devastates domestic support for AQAP

Gundun, 1-15-12

(James, “US is Bleeding out Its Credibility in Yemen,” )

2. Immunity is necessary to combat al-Qaeda… than the recruiting power of American policy

Yemeni infighting and political instability is skyrocketing recruitment of child soldiers- they’ve become embedded in regional conflict

UPI, 1-6-10

(“Yemen’s child soldiers go to war,” )

As Yemen's beleaguered government launches a new… are under the legal age," he said.

Child soldiers are the most vulnerable group in the world and represent the ultimate in repressive control- demanding specific policy proposals is key to combat this exploitation at every turn

Hanson, 7-22-04

(Kirk, “The Plight of Children:

Are We Meeting Our Responsibility to Children?,” )

In addressing this failure, we must… do we meet our responsibility to children

Recruitment of child soldiers creates a cycle of violence and expendability- it’s uniquely the most exploitative form of violence

War Child UK, 11

(“Child Soldiers,” )

Children are used as soldiers because they are… as they have simply no other way of feeding themselves.

Taking resolute action against child soldiers is key to combat overall power structures that make systemic violence inevitable- the plan is key to delegitimize oppressive regimes

Hall, 4-10-09

(Mitch, “Children, Structural Violence, and the UNCRC: Reflections for Children’s Advocates,” )

Compared with structural violence, direct violence… its enforcement must be a priority.

Further political instability causes rampant child labor- trades off with education and exposes children to dangerous pesticides

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 10-6-11

(“YEMEN: Political upheaval likely to increase child labour,” )

More parents are likely to put their children… the political unrest. Other project activities have been delayed, reduced or cancelled.

We must individually and unconditionally align ourselves against child labor

Osaretin, 6-26-11

(“Child Labour- a Dehumanizing Slave Master,” )

To reduce child labour, because I doubt… slavery of child labour caused by poverty

Rejecting child exploitation is an a priori issue- it’s a magnifier for all other types of violence and creates generations of militancy that make all other atrocities worse

Miebaka, 08

(Marshall, “Child Abuse: Dehumanization of the Human Mind,” )

It is imperative to avoid abusing the child… this destructive attitude of child labour and abuse.

The 1AC is an act of awareness-raising that, in itself, is a part of the larger goal of living by, not simply having, laws against child soldiering.

Somavia, 02

(Juan, “Children in the Crossfire: Prevention and Rehabilitation of Child Soldiers,” )

Our studies and years of field experience… child soldiers into polic

The United States federal government should substantially increase its democracy assistance by offering political organization capacity to the Syrian National Council

Contention 1: Credibility

Inaction on Syria makes Obama look weak internationally – that destroys US leadership

Gordon, 1

(J.D. Gordon is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Libya, Syria show Obama in way over his head”, ) d/a 2/6/12, SRG)

Developments this week … their own military arsenals.

US action in Syria demonstrates leadership & consistency to the Arab world, Pletka 11

(Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI, “US needs to lead from the front on Syria”, 11/18/11, ) d/a 2/6/12, SRG)

Consider the stakes: … America was all but absent.

Lack of credibility strengthens Iran and kills heg – causes nuclear arms race, nuke terror, conventional escalation and accidental nuke war drawing in the US

Kroenig, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2012

(Matthew, former Special Adviser in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, "Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option," Foriegn Affairs, January/February, Volume 91, Issue 1, ProQuest, accessed 2/8/12, srg)

Some states in the … States in, as well.

Strong US is the only way to effectively counterbalance Iran

Lynch, 11

(Marc Lynch, associate professor of political science, “Upheaval

U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East” ) d/a 2/6/12, SRG)

America’s interest in … Engage Newly Empowered Publics.

Syria is the key stronghold for Iranian influence – transition strengthens Sunni nations against Tehran

Stratfor, 2011

(Global intelligence resource, "Syria as a Battleground for Saudi Arabia and Iran Read more: Syria as a Battleground for Saudi Arabia and Iran," 8-5-11, http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110804-syria-battleground-saudi-arabia-and-iran, accessed 8-23-11, mtf)

The Syria-Iran Alliance  …  geopolitical and sectarian battleground.

Iran adventurism causes miscalculation and war

Lynch, Associate Professor at George Washington, 2011

(Marc, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Associate Professor at George Washington of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, "Upheaval U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East," Center for a New American Security, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf, accessed2/8/12, srg)

As it struggles …  sudden and game-changing war.

No chance of defense – credibility gaps encourage regional rivalries

Wehrey, senior policy analyst with RAND 10 

[Frederic, RAND National Defense Research Institute, “The Iraq Effect,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf, d/a 2/8/12, srg)

That said, despite … years following the Iraq War.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, , DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more … the geometry to come.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen, UVA politics professor, 2011

(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony”, 2-11, , DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

We would still …  democracy remains strong.

No risk of their heg bad turns---US engagement and reintervention are inevitable---it’s only a question of making it effective---the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns

Kagan, Brooking senior foreign policy fellow, 2011

(Robert, "The Price of Power" Weekly Standard, 1-24, , DOA: 10-11-11, ldg)

In theory, the … built and defended.

Contention 2: Stability

Syria is fraught with violence now – failure of opposition causes radicalization of tactics

Basu, 11

(Moni Basu, CNN, “Car bombs mark escalation of violence in Syria”, ,  d/a 2/6/12, srg)

In the 10 … to become more likely."

Assad collapse is inevitable – it could create a stable regime that serves US interests

Anderson, 11

(James Anderson is a professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies., “After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?” Nov/Dec 2011, ) d/a 2/6/12, srg)

Getting a clear … hasten its inglorious end.

Syria collapse spills over to the entire Middle East

Nerguizian 11

(Aram Nerguizian, “Instabiliyt in Syria: Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention” 12/13/11, ) d/a 2/6/12, srg)

In the event … further instability in Syria.

Conflict in Syria escalates to a major regional war – draws in the US and Russia

Goodspeed, 11

(Peter Goodspeed, National Post, “Power shifts push Mideast closer to war”, 12/14/11 ) d/a 2/6/12, srg)

As Syrian dictator … Iran and its adversaries.

US-Russia conflict in the Middle East goes nuclear

LaRouche 12-9 

(Lyndon LaRouche, “To Risk Thermonuclear War Is Clinically Insane”, 12/9/11, , d/a 2/6/12, srg)

"What's happened is, … and other places."

Slow collapse causes Assad lashout against Israel – provokes regional nuc and chemical war

Ceren 11

(Omri Ceren, Founder, “Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get?”, 8/1/11, ,  d/a 2/6/12, srg)

But the continued … politicians to overreact less.

Contention 3: Solvency

U.S civil society assistance helps opposition groups organize effectively and unify

Karlin &Tabler 11

(Mara Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon, Andrew Tabler is a next generation fellow at the Washington institute for near east policy. , d/a 2/8/12, srg)

To further assist the … current minority system).

They will say yes

Mutter, contributor to Mondoweiss, Foreign Policy in Focus and the Arabist, 1-5-12

(Paul, "Mixed messages from Syrian National Council on U.S., Israel," Mondoweiss, 1-5-12, http://mondoweiss.net/2012/01/mixed-messages-from-syrian-national-council-on-u-s-israel.html, accessed 2/8/12, srg)

Despite the unity agreement, … of the unity agreement.

Unified opposition key to persuade regime supporters to switch sides

Seelye 11

(Kate Seelye is vide president of the Middle Ease Institute,  9/1/11, “Why can’t the Syrian Opposition Get Along?”, , d/a,  2/8/12, srg)

The reasons for … more than a distant hope.

Only U.S. leadership encourages minorities to abandon the regime

Brodsky,

(Matthew Brodsky is the Director of Policy for the Jewish Policy Center, 9/4/11, “The US must ratchet up pressure on Syria”, , d/a 3/8/12, srg)

With calling … wait to see what happens.

US support is positively perceived – Obama is widely popular

Gordon 11

(J.D. Gordon is a communications consultant to several Washington D.C.-area think tanks. 4/22/11, , d/a 2.8.12, srg)

In the wake of … being any worse.

Genocide

The Syrian people are experiencing the some of the worst treatment by the Assad regime – slow transition makes it worse

Posner and Feltman 11 

(Michael H., Asst Sect Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, Jeffery D., Asst Sect Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “Statement Before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia”, Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights Policy toward Iran and Syria: Part 1, July 27, 2011, http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/rm/2011/169180.htm) ara

In Syria, a … and chest wounds.

Syria has all of the warning signs of genocide – the government could be tipping to commit mass murder against its own people

Genocide Watch 11

[Genocide Watch, June 7, 2011, Coordinator of the International Alliance to End Genocide, “Genocide and Mass Atrocity Warning:  Syria” http://www.genocidewatch.org/syria.html] ara

Since the beginning … tipping point into mass

Genocide makes life and death meaningless

Card 3

[Claudia, philosophy professor at University of Wisconsin, “Genocide and Social Death,” Winter 2003, Hypatia, vol. 18, issue 1, ProjectMuse, http://www.armenews.com/IMG/pdf/GenocideandSocialDeath.pdf]

Specific to genocide … however, is controversial

Genocide will lead to the destruction of all people – outweighs all other impacts

Harff, professor of political science, 81

(Gur Harff, prof. @ Univ. of Berlin, Humanitarian Intervention as a Remedy for Genocide, p. 40-41)

One of the most … is a universal concern.

Genocide outweighs all consequences – failure to act makes us accomplices

Jasser, President, AIFD, 2-15

Zuhdi, Founder and President of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, Syrian People are paying for Western inaction with their lives,” February 15, 2012, http://www.aifdemocracy.org/news.php?id=7475, ara)

The US's attempt … US knowing and loving.