1NC
Topicality
Democracy assistance is grant-aided transfer of support to pro-democracy initiatives.
Burnell 7 Prof. of Politics @ University of Warwick, England
Peter, “Does International Democracy Promotion Work?” Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, ISBN 978-3-88985-354-7) http://www.die-gdi.de/CMS Homepage/openwebcms3.nsf/%28ynDK_ contentByKey%29/ADMR-7BRF46/$FILE/BurnellPromotionWork.pdf
All things considered, … political parties, and so on.
B. The aff isn’t a grant
C. Reasons to prefer
1.) Limits - the aff explodes limits on the topic by allowing mechanisms other than direct funding. They allow for technology and personnel assistance to democracies.
2.) Ground – their interpretation kills negative ground and generic links to DAs such as economy, domestic politics, and international policies. They eliminate all of the foreign assistance trade off DAs as well as perception links about foreign aid.
D. Topicality is a voting issue for fairness and education and should be evaluated on the basis of competing interpretations.
1NC – Climate
Climate assistance on the chopping block—trades off with other international funding
Lattanzio 3/15(Richard, Analyst in Environmental Policy at the Congressional Research Service, 2012, "The Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI): Budget Authority and Request, FY2010-FY2013", http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41845.pdf)jn
As Congress considers … Americans feel less urgency and responsibility.
Foreign aid funding is zero-sum- plan forces a tradeoff
Sessions 2006(Myra, Center for Global Development program coordinator, "The PMI Turns One – How Will We Measure Success?," Center for Global Development, blogs.cgdev.org/globalhealth/2006/07/the-pmi-turns-one-how-will-we.php)
Thanks for the comment and question… opportunities of the initiatives.
International climate assistance is critical to stabilize carbon emissions
Lefton and Light 2011(Rebecca, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress, and Andrew, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, April 7, "The Fight Over International Climate Investments", http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/intl_climate_investments.html)jn
At this stage in the international … emissions at two degrees.
Global warming leads to extinction
David Stein, Science editor for The Guardian, 7-14-2008, “Global Warming Xtra: Scientists warn about Antarctic melting,”
Global Warming … man in the world we share.
1NC – CP 1
The United States federal government should alter tax law for private foundations and individuals that commission participatory evaluations of State Department Democracy Assistance for Syria by:
--Eliminating the prohibition against lobbying activities by private foundations
--Applying a charitable deduction for private contributions to the democratic opposition to Bashar Al-Assad.
Removing tax exemption restrictions encourages a wave of private aid
Crimm, 3
(Law Prof-St. John’s, “Through a post-September 11 Looking Glass: Assessing the Roles of Federal Tax Laws and Tax Policies Applicable to Global Philanthropy by Private Foundations and their Donor,” 23 Va. Tax Rev. 1)
The events of September 11 … and effective global philanthropy.
That’s key to expand private democracy assistance
Crimm, 5
(Law Prof-St. John’s, Democratization, Global Grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restrictions, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587)
The U.S. government is … cautious experimentation.
1NC – CP 2
The United States federal government should re-route a portion of its democracy assistance from the Syrian National Council to the Syrian Democracy Council.
The United States federal government should not increase its democracy assistance for Syria.
The United States federal government should freeze its foreign assistance at current levels.
Supporting the secular opposition is key – solves your impacts
London 11 (Herbert, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University, "US Betrays Syria's Opposition," August 21, Hudson Institute, mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=8269)
In an effort to understand … opposes this political view.
1NC – DA
Obama investing political capital to repeal Jackson Vanik – it’s his top priority and it passes now but it’s a tough fight because of the bundling issue
Verona 3-29-12 (Ed. president & CEO of the U.S.-Russia Business Council. National Interest. )
In January, the Obama administration … for Russia, but for America.
The plan will be a huge fight for Obama – Congress has shut the door on funding for Arab Spring – even reprogrammed funding is facing stiff resistance
Richter 4-12-11 (Correspondent, LA Times. Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition
Reporting from Washington — … the administration has been blocked at almost every turn.
Ending Jackson-Vanik key to re-set—it has a massive symbolic effect and is the litmus test for relations
Lewis 8 (Congressional Quarterly Weekly, http://www.ncsj.org/AuxPages/081009CQ_Jackson-Vanik.shtml, “Russia Longs to Graduate At the Top of Trade Class”)
President Obama has repeatedly … U.S.-Russia relationship,” he said.
And, Relations key to check miscalc and nuclear war
Gottemoeller 8 (Rose Gottemoeller was appointed Director of carnegie moscow center in January 2006. “Russia-US Security Relations after Georgia” available at )
No holds barred, no rules—… could now be a lifeline. .
Extinction
Tayler 8 (Jeffrey.Staff writer. The Atlantic. “Medvedev Spoils the Party,” http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/11/medvedev-spoils-the-party/7130)
Like it or not, the United … volatile future arm in arm.
SOLVENCY
Leakage of funds from government aid kills effectiveness
Desai, 10 (Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution, and Associate Professor of International Development in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1111, Summer)
Official aid is perceived … through government bureaucracies is avoided.
And, government aid bureaucracy destroys innovation
Carothers, 9 (October, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24047)
USAID’s basic operating procedures—… occurs, or to adapt easily when basic circumstances change.
Compliance conflicts make government-based democracy assistance ineffective
Natsios, 10
(Prof of Diplomacy and Government-Georgetown and former administrator of USAID, Center for Global Development, “The Clash of the Counter-bureaucracy and Development”, July)
The Counter-bureaucracy
One of the little understood, but …former professor—James Q. Wilson.
USAID democracy work undermines local ownership—kills effectiveness
Carothers, 9
(October, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24047)
A second key problem for … remains in place.
( ) The SNC can’t solve minority rights – it doesn’t reflect the people in Syria
Black 3/12/12 (Tim, Senior Writer @ Spiked, “The Syrian Opposition Handpicked by Hillary”)
Yet political legitimacy, … are left unnamed for security purposes.
( ) The SNC is too fragemented -
Black 3/12/12 (Tim, Senior Writer @ Spiked, “The Syrian Opposition Handpicked by Hillary”)
It is hardly surprising that ….
( ) Their leadership is resigning
Reuters 3/14/12 (“Analysis: One Year On, Syria’s Assad Won’t Bow to Uprising”)
The main opposition Syrian … would follow.
- That GUTS the signal that the organization sends – muddles any chance at solvency
Tobia 3/15/12 (PJ, PBS News Hour “Syrian opposition leaders break up, no chance of make-up”)
"For a long time, …might be thinking of abandoning Assad."
ADVANTAGE
( ) It’s empirical – Assad has a regional template of success to give him hope
Phillips 3/6/12 (Chris, “Can the Syrian Regime Crush the Uprising? Yes, Suggests History”)
There is an assumption that Bashar … regime it can hold on.
( ) Assad still has a chokehold on how loyalists
Phillips 3/6/12 (Chris, “Can the Syrian Regime Crush the Uprising? Yes, Suggests History”)
For now, the Syrian regime … that survived an uprising.
( ) He could hold onto power indefinitely -
Reuters 3/14/12 (“Analysis: One Year On, Syria’s Assad Won’t Bow to Uprising”)
In the absence of … charge in Damascus."
( ) New intelligence confirms – Assad’s military is still in tact
Dozier 3/10/12 (Kimberly, AP Intelligence Writer, “US Officials: Syrian Regime Holding Under Fire”)
Top U.S. officials all … people have been killed.
( ) Regional alliances
Reuters 3/14/12 (“Analysis: One Year On, Syria’s Assad Won’t Bow to Uprising”)
For the time being, … Hezbollah militant group.
( ) It’s already a civil war
Hamid 2/6/12 (Shadi, “World Must Aid Syria’s Rebels”)
A last-ditch effort … foregone conclusion.
( ) It’s a civil war now
MSNBC 3/16/12 (“Civil War in Syria?”)
it's interesting what you … a war. it is a war.
( ) It met that criteria last year
Chenoweth 12 (Erica, “The Syrian Conflict is Already a Civil War”)
But by most standards… other “typical” civil wars.
( ) More evidence- it’s already crossed the threshold
Pollack 1/31/12 (Kenneth M., “The Revolt in Syria Could Easily Spread to Other Middle East Countries” )
By any measure, Syria … war against the regime.
AT: Sectarianism
The plan doesn’t spill over
CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies Forum on Islam, ‘7
()
“Each Shi’a … a Sunni dominated world.
Sectarian in Iraq
Steve Crabtree, “Opinion Briefing: Discontent and Division in Iraq”, Gallup, 3/6/2012
Quick Summary: Iraqis' …squad targeting government officials.
Pakistan
Raza Rumi, “The rise of violent sectarianism”, The Friday Times, March 2012.
Denominational … and state inability to erode their capacity.
AT: MB
Ali 10-19 (Mohanad, "Syria's opposition is unified and peaceful," The Guardian, www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/19/syria-opposition-unified-peaceful)
So far, the Muslim … in its political affiliations.
The MB is a small part of the opposition
Weiss 11 (Michael, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, "Meet the Syrian Opposition," Slate, June 7, )
The Islamist quotient in …ive power are more definitive.
AT: Escalation
No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)
Without the US presence, a second … likely than outright warfare.
AT: IndoPak
No indopak war – even if crises occur, deterrence prevents them from escalating
Ganguly, 8
[Sumit Ganguly is a professor of political science and holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair at Indiana University, Bloomington. “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Fall 2008), pp. 45–70]
As the outcomes of the 1999 and …-occupied Kashmir.87
2NC
( ) No aid now -
Cornwell 12 (Susan Cornwell, Reuters, “Obama proposes $800 million in aid for "Arab Spring"”, 2/13/2012
No U.S. assistance is … ban on them.
( ) Unconditional aid now
New York Times 3/15/12 (“Despite Rights Concers US Plans to Resume Aid”)
WASHINGTON — The Obama … protection of basic freedoms.
No Collapse – Ext. Empirics
( ) Assad can hold off the collapse – loyalty of pro-regime forces has been empirically critical to success
Phillips 3/6/12 (Chris, “Can the Syrian Regime Crush the Uprising? Yes, Suggests History”)
Cultivating loyal units was a tactic …. particularly because of the loyalty of the Damascus merchant class.
No Collapse – Ext. Allies
Reuters evidence indicates Assad’s regional allies will ensure that he continues to get money and technical assistance to resist opposition forces -
- Iran’s technical assistance
Reuters News Service 3/24/12 (“Iranian weapons help Bashar Assad Put down Syria Protests, Officials Say”)
Iran is providing a broad …. the official continued.
- Russia’s arms sale pledge
Today’s Zaman 3/14/12 (“Assad regime gains momentum as opposition shows signs of division”)
Assad is also bolstered by a …. Committee on Tuesday.
- Lack of foreign military intervention
Reuters 3/14/12 (“Analysis: One Year On, Syria’s Assad Won’t Bow to Uprising”)
For months now Assad's opponents … divisions among his opponents.
No Collapse – Ext. Defections
- No risk of mass defections –
Byman et. al 3/12 (Daniel, Director of Research @ Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Michael, Roger Hertog Senior fellow @ Saban Center, Kenneth Pollock, Senior Fellow @ Saban Center, and Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center and Fellow @ Saban Center, “Saving Syria: Assessing Options for Regime Change” Middle East Memo @ Brookings, #21)
Militarily, the task of toppling the …. lead to Asad’s fall.
- The majority are Alawite and loyal
Los Angeles Times 3/2/12 (“Assad’s Hidden Strength in Syria”)
U.S. Secretary of State …, but most of them have so far remained loyal to Assad.
**Politics**
Impact Calc
Gottmueller evidence indicates relations with Russia are necessary to check conflict scenarios and prevent miscalculation between two nuclear powers
MAGNITUDE – WAR WITH RUSSIA THE ONLY EXISTENTIAL RISK BECAUSE OF SHEER MAGNITUDE OF NUCLEAR ARSENALS
Bostrom 2 - Ph.D. Philosophy @ Oxford and really smart dude
(Nick, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, )
A much greater existential risk … potential permanently.
FURTHERMORE, THIS IS THE ONLY SCENARIO FOR GLOBAL CONFLICT – ALL OTHER CONFLICTS ARE CONTAINED LOCALLY
ROZZOFF 2009 (Rick, Manager of STOP NATO International, February 27, “Baltic Sea: Flash Point for NATO-Russia Conflict”, http://rickrozoff.wordpress.com/2009/08/27/baltic-sea-flash-point-for-nato-russia-conflict/, accessed January 28, 2010, JN)
The world has been on edge … Lithuania which abuts the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
TIMEFRAME AND PROBABILITY – RUSSIAN HAIR TRIGGER MAKES ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH LIKELY – ANY WAR WOULD MEAN EXTINCTION
Caldicott 2 [(Helen- Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)]
If launched from Russia, …. annihilation of the planet.
US-Russian relations key to solving Middle Eastern instability:
Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE), Мarch 2011, “analytical report by the russian Group of the Valdai international discussion club”,
Without close friendly • cooperation with …. outcome of the wars will look like an even heavier defeat.
UQ – Top of Docket
Jackson Vanik is top priority
- Next flashpoint in Congress
Roth 3-20 (Andrew. Staff Writer. Russia Profile. The Campaign Heats Up Over Repealing Jackson-Vanik. )
The clock is ticking for the … denying reality.”
- Obama is pushing it
Wasson 3-15-12 (Eric. Staff writer. The Hill. Sen. Kyl takes strong stand against top Obama administration trade priority. )
Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (…, Russia will be allowed to retaliate against U.S. exporters.
- Debates are occurring now
International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development 3-21-12 (US Lawmakers Begin Debate on Russia Trade Restrictions. )
The highly-anticipated debate … “within a couple of months.”
AT: Agencies
Presidents are tied to agency action – Obama gets the blame
Wallison 3 (Peter J., Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “A Power Shift No One Noticed”, AEI Online, 1-1, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.15652/pub_detail.asp)
Control over independent regulatory … the Bush "economic team."
AT: EPA
Most recent and credible polling proves the conventional wisdom is wrong – EPA regs are popular
Quinlan and Baumann 3/29/2012 (Al and Andrew, “Voters Support New EPA Rules on Carbon Emissions”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-quinlan)
This week's White House … those on carbon emissions.
More evidence
Quinlan and Baumann 3/29/2012 (Al and Andrew, “Voters Support New EPA Rules on Carbon Emissions”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-quinlan)
In our survey for the ALA, two-thirds of …s 65 percent of independents.
AT: Oil
Oil subsides can’t pass – GOP opposition and vote counts
Daly 3-29-2012 (Corbett, “Obama: Congress should end oil subsidies”, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57406425-503544/obama-congress-should-end-oil-subsidies/)
President Obama on Thursday … and Virginia Sen. Jim Webb.
AT: Clinton
Obama gets the blame for State Department policies – wikileaks proves
The Judiciary Report 12/3/10 (“How Much Will Hillary Clinton Cost Obama”)
How much will Hillary Clinton's … elections. Stay tuned.
( ) Obama and Clinton are linked – appointments and foreign policy agenda items prove
The Washington Post 9 (David Rothkopf, Visiting Scholar at the Carnagie Endowment for International Peace, “It’s 3.m. Do You Know Where Hillary Clinton Is?” August 23rd 2009)
At the heart of things, though, …. -- but in a new role of her own making.
2NC – Link wall
No turns – supporters lack intensity – no constituency and perception of failures
Dobransky, 11 (Steve, Adjunct Prof @ Cleveland State, American Diplomacy, 3/7)
Eliminating USAID is a powerful call among a number of vocal critics of the long-standing foreign aid regime. USAID is old and a proven failure at worst, mediocre at best. … and results by any substantial margins.
Budget
Any potential for bipartisanship over the plan is lost in the budget battle and over the language of the bill
Politico 11(Tony Romm, “State Department May Lose Anti-censorship Cash,” March 9, 2011, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/50922.html)
“The BBG is the natural lead government agency in this … best to write the language.
UQ – Will Pass
Will be repealed now
- Baucus statements prove
Herszenhorn 2-2412 (David. Staff Writer. NYT. U.S.-Russian Trade Ties Face Some Political Snags. )
In trying to ….. It will help create more American jobs.”
- Democrat and business support
Dow Jones Newswires 3-15-12 ()
Senate Chairman Max Baucus (… trade arena complicate the situation, the vote shouldn't be viewed as a "gift" to Russia.
AT: Bundling Kills Relations
- No impact to bundling trade and rights – Obama will water it down to save relations
Washington Post 3-27-12 (Cost could be high for US-Russia relations in winning repeal of decades-old trade restrictions. )
Prospects were uncertain … to avoid upsetting Moscow.
AT: Doesn’t Kill Relations
And our link is reverse causal—a vote where we refuse to lift Jackson-Vanik worsens US-Russian relations—sends a signal of displeasure over human rights:
Anders Åslund, 2011 (November, a leading specialist on postcommunist economic transformation
with more than 30 years of experience in the field, “The United States Should
Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia,” )
The Jackson-Vanik Amendment to … granted PNTR (Pregelj 2005).
(--) US-Russian relations remain fragile and prone to risks:
Karaganov 11 (Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University–Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE), Мarch 2011, “analytical report by the russian Group of the Valdai international discussion club”, )
1.2. However, the U.S.—Russian … positions of the Obama administration.
AT: Intervention
( ) Russia will back off of a conflict –
Chicago Tribune 2/7/12 (“Syria Raises Spector of Proxy Conflict for US, Russia”)
And U.S. fears over a Syrian …. But they also want to see broad stability."
**1NR**
CP
CP Solvency
Infrastructure for philanthropy and foundations to engage the Syrian opposition exists now---diaspora communities and umbrella groups in the region
Qayyum, 11
(Fellow—The Middle East Institute, August, Syrian Diaspora, “Cultivating a New Public Space Consciousness,” http://www.mei.edu/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=HHPUvt1JpOI%3D&tabid=539)
Diaspora communities in both the US …Syria and beyond.
There are tons of organizations in Syria that could receive support
NGO Reg Network, 11
(http://www.ngoregnet.org/country_information_by_region/Middle_East_and_North_Africa/Syria.asp)
The NGO sector
Civil and charitable work has … involved in small scale local activities.
AT: Perm
Government involvement destroys private aid cred
Crimm, 5
(Law Prof-St. John’s, Democratization, Global Grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restrictions, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587)
Despite the many uncertainties, … to, nor intolerant of, U.S. values.
Independence key to private aid effectiveness
Jenkins, 7
(Law Prof-The Ohio State University & Former COO and General Counsel of the Goldman Sachs Foundation, “Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773)
[*826] One of the key strengths of nonprofit … of charitable organizations.
Joint action limits flexibility and encourages waste
Little, 10
(Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and Deputy Director of the Center for Global Prosperity, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1091, Summer)
The proponents of increased harmonization … encourage waste.
AT: Burnell
Takes out the aff – says that the state department and practitioners are stubborn which means that they wont cause the change of policy
No solvency deficit—official aid already uses backdoor privatization—ground work is done through private contractors
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)
Moreover, the agency’s programs … diplomatic support rarely came.
Their government key arguments are full of institutional bias
Parajuli, 10
(Columnist-The Concord Review, 7/8, http://archives.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=20776)
This brings us to another argument – … money they invest in developing countries.
Implementation failures destroy broader policy goals
Carothers, 9
(October, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24047)
As a complement to these larger aid … for remedying the problems.
SOLVENCY
2NC/1NR – Leakage DA
US assistance has huge transactional costs---taxes, government fees, administrative costs, and corruption cause less than half of allocated funds to reach targets—that’s Desai---this takes-out the case---makes increases in aid irrelevant
Carothers, 9
(October, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24047)
As a complement to these larger aid … the problems.
2NC/1NR – Innovation DA
Government aid fails---risk-averse culture encourages over-regulation, mistrust, and crippling inflexibility – makes implementation impossible – that’s Carothers.
Private aid drives innovation—more info access and less regulation
Kapur, 10
(Director, Center for Advanced Study of India, and Madan Lal Sobti Professor for the Study of Contemporary India, University of Pennsylvania, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1143, Summer)
Much of the debate on … official funders as well.
\
2NC/1NR – Ctr-Bureaucracy DA
US democracy aid fails—layers of red tape ensure compliance conflicts and causes focus on accounting over project outcomes —that’s Natsios.
Prefer our evidence—his experience inside the agency makes him qualified
Jayawickrama, 10
(Hauser Center for Nonprofit Organizations at Harvard University., http://hausercenter.org/iha/2010/07/09/when-aid-bureaucracy-and-development-clash-a-former-usaid-administrator-speaks-out/)
A newly-published essay by Andrew … undermine that goal.
2NC/1NR – Local Ownership DA
USAID democracy projects undermine local ownership—that’s Carothers---it’s a prerequisite to effective assistance for the Arab Spring
Kuttab, 11
(December, Founder-Arab Foundations Forum and the Arab Human Rights Fund, “Which way now for Arab philanthropy?,” Alliance Magazine)
Recent moves to build the infrastructure …support should focus on the following.
SNC
1NR - Exclusive
( ) The SNC doesn’t respond to the needs of people – Zionism proves
Abukhalil 3/8/12 (As’ad “Opposition to the Syrian Opposition: Against the Syrian National Council)
For some reason (or for several reasons, and … as the Godfather of the SNC.
( ) Doesn’t cater to the countries minorities
Today’s Zaman 3/14/12 (“Assad regime gains momentum as opposition shows signs of division”)
The SNC has aspired since its … by the Assad family’s Alawite-minority regime.
1NR – Fragmentation
( ) Opposition is hopelessly fragmented – plays into the hands of Assad
Tastekin 3/23/12 (Fehim, “Why Syria’s Splintered Opposition is Assad’s Real Ace in the Hole”)
Still, Bashar has two important dynamics … more than a body of armchair oppositionists.
( ) It’s in a state of chaos
Landis 3/22/12 (Joshua, Leading Syria Expert, Council on foreign relations, “The Great Syria Divide”)
Yes. The opposition is in a state of chaos right now. The SNC, which has been the dominant external leadership and umbrella group for the opposition, and is led by Burhan Ghalyun, a French professor at the Sorbonne, is facing a crisis. It has been extremely successful in getting the international community organized to isolate the al-Assad regime and to turn against it. Ausama Monajed, as a right-hand man of Ghalyun's, was largely responsible for getting both Europe and the United States to sanction Syria within an inch of its life. But what we've discovered in the last few weeks is that they failed to get a Western invasion of Syria, which would have capped their success and brought down the regime.
( ) Too many internal divisions ensure that the SNC fails -
Byman 3/20/12 (Daniel, “Preparing for Failure in Syria: How to Stave of f Catastrophe”)
That leaves the opposition as the great hope for keeping Syria together, either by taking power when the regime collapses under its own weight or by … to the FSA leadership in exile.
1NR – No Leaders
( ) The SNC is hopeless – leadership is leaving because of too much commitment to the Muslim Brotherhood
Tobia 3/15/12 (PJ, “Syrian opposition leaders break up no chance of make-up”)
Breaking up may be hard to do, but … aggressive in trying to arm rebels inside Syria.
