A. Interpretation – a topical aff must increase democracy assistance by a considerable value

1. Increase requires a net increase over the status quo

Judge Rogers, June 24, 2005, US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, State of New York, et al., Petitioners v. US Environmental Protection Agency, 367 U.S. App. D.C. 3; 413 F.3d 3, 2005 U.S. App. LEXIS 12378, **; 60 ERC (BNA) 1791, p. Lexis

[**48]  Statutory Interpretation. HN16Go to

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ago when the engine was in perfect condition.

2. Substantial is 2%

Word and Phrases 1960

'Substantial" means "of real worth

AND

.E. 557, 42 Ohio App.

3. Democracy assistance is the transfer of funds

Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties. 

B. Violation – the plan fails to spend fifty million dollars, which is 2% of current assistance

Carothers 2009 (Thomas – vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance, p. 4)

Over the past 25 years, the United

AND

most important player in the democracy aid domain.

The United States Federal Government should:

--Establish the Middle East Foundation and allocate no Federal Government assistance to this program.

--Offer a thirty-nine cent per dollar tax credit for private and business contributions providing support for MEF to substantially increase its democracy assistance for the Republic of Yemen by providing assistance to mediate a dialogue for inclusive democratic participation that includes the Yemeni government, opposition group leaders, and Sheikhs

--Remove Internal Revenue Code Tax restrictions on private organization and public charity contributions to the MEF.

CP solves expertise and accesses private aid.

Carothers, February 2005 (Thomas – senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, A Better Way to Support Middle East Reform, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Policy Brief, p. 4-6)

Instead, MEPI should be taken out of

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non-U.S. government support.

Solves – businesses will fund the CP and promotes efficiency.

Muzinich and Werker, 10/20/2007 (Justin – works for a hedge fund, and Eric – assistant professor in the Business, Government & International economy unit at Harvard Business School, A Global Tax Credit, The New York Times, p. lexis)

BARACK OBAMA has proposed that the United States

AND

that do not compete directly with American workers.

CP revitalizes public diplomacy – spills over to global cooperation.

Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

The United States has long embraced a tradition

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but also out of enlightened self-interest.

The impact is terrorism, disease, environmental collapse, proliferation, and WMD conflict

Reiss 8 (Mitchell B., Vice Provost of International Affairs – College of William & Mary, “Restoring America's Image: What the Next President Can Do”, Survival, October, 50(5))

But first, there is another question to

AND

or do more to enhance peace and security.

Environment collapse causes extinction

Jayawardena 9 (Asitha, London South Bank University, “We Are a Threat to All Life on Earth”, Indicator, 7-17, http://www.indicator.org.uk/?p=55)

Sloep and Van Dam-Mieras (1995

AND

…. expecting surprises and adapting to these.’

Disease causes extinction – outweighs nuclear war

Keating, 11/13/2009 (Joshua, The End of the World, Foreign Policy, p. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/13/the_end_of_the_world?page=0,2)

Despite this, the worst-case scenario

AND

added a new and just as troubling complication.

Proliferation causes nuclear war

Utgoff, Summer 2002 (Victor – deputy director for strategy, forces and resources division at the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, p. OUP Journals)

Widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an

AND

bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.

The United States Federal Government should inform the government of Yemen that [insert plan text] unless the government of Yemen implements a political reform agenda that includes anti-corruption measures and full political participation.

Competes –

Tests “resolved” which means “to make a firm decision”, and “should” which is “used to imply obligation or duty” – counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

[American Heritage Dictionary – dictionary.com]

Pressure for political reform restores U.S. credibility, undermines Al Qaeda, and solves instability in Yemen.

Porges, 11/16/2010 (Marisa - policy adviser in the U.S. Treasury and Defense Departments, Saving Yemen, Foreign Affairs, p. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67008/marisa-l-porges/saving-yemen?page=show)

Yet implementing these reform and development plans has

AND

fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Alkebsi and Boucek, 10/14/2010 (Abdulwahab - regional director for Africa and MENA at the Center for International Private Enterprise, and Christopher - associate at the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Yemen on the Brink, Real Clear World, p. http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/10/14/yemen-on-brink/ayr)

Yemen's stability and security situation is rapidly deteriorating

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in combating corruption and to advance Yemen's development.

Relations are on the brink – the plan “pushes the envelope” and causes Saudis to move towards China – crushes the overall relationship

Jacobs, 2/25 (Joshua, Senior Policy Analyst with the Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudis embrace China in new polygamy,” Asia Times Online, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB25Ak01.html)

Following the collapse of Mubarak's regime and the

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free way to influence US regional policy objectives.

Saudi-China energy partnership collapses the petrodollar, which kills the economy

Snyder, 3/22 (Michael, Editor of The Economic Collapse, prominent lawyer in Washington DC, graduate of the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia, “Saudi Arabia And China Team Up To Build A Gigantic New Oil Refinery – Is This The Beginning Of The End For The Petrodollar?”, Hawaii News Daily, http://world.hawaiinewsdaily.com/2012/03/saudi-arabia-and-china-team-up-to-build-a-gigantic-new-oil-refinery-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-petrodollar-2/)

The largest oil exporter in the Middle East

AND

be exposed and it will not be pretty.

Global nuclear war

Auslin, 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short

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small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

Their impact is all hype – AQAP lacks capabilities

Seale, 11/11 (Patrick, “America's Al Qaida obsession”, Gulf News, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/america-s-al-qaida-obsession-1.928024)

Yemen is another country where Al Qaida is usually said to pose a major strategic threat. But, as Gerges argues, Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) — formed by the 2009 merger of the Saudi and Yemeni branches — has no more than between 50 and 300 core operatives, mostly semi-literate rookies with little combat experience.

Yet, a decade after September 11,

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overreaction provides the oxygen that sustains Al Qaida.

Can’t solve terror – even if they root out terror from Yemen they’ll just move to Egypt or Syria

Byman, 12/1 (Daniel L., Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Can Al Qaeda Capitalize on Unrest in Egypt and Syria?”, The Brookings Institution, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1201_alqaeda_democracy_byman.aspx)

Opportunities for al Qaeda will also arise if

AND

countries, al Qaeda may find new life.

No nuke terror - Al-Qaeda lacks both finances and expertise – prefer recent intelligence

Mueller, 11 (John, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute, “The Truth About al Qaeda: Bin Laden's Files Revealed the Terrorists in Dramatic Decline”,

August 2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show#)

The chief lesson of 9/11 should

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all the while attracting no attention from outsiders.

No retaliation

Davis and Jenkins, 2 (Paul K., Professor – RAND Corporation and Research Leader – Naval Studies Board, and Brian M., Special Advisor – RAND Corporation and International Chamber of Commerce, RAND Research Paper,

http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1619/MR1619.pdf)

Deterring acquisition and use of WMD is profoundly

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some, we regard it as very dangerous.

Risk of nuclear terror extremely low – causal chain of events that have to happen is too large

Chapman, 8 (Steven, columnist and editorial writer for the Chicago Tribune, “Who’s Still Afraid of Osama?”, Feb 8, http://reason.com/news/show/124874.html)

Ever since Sept. 11, 2001,

AND

worst eventuality is one that will never happen.

-- Japan’s economy is resilient – no external shocks

NYT 8 (New York Times, “Bank Chief Says Japan’s Economy Resilient”, 2-22, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22rtyen-web.html)

He said there was no change to the

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will continue to expand moderately,” he said.

-- Japanese economy will stay high --- capital investment and strong exports sustain recovery

Mochizuki, 10 --- Dow Jones reporter and economic writer (Takashi Mochizuki, “Update: Japan Lifts Economic View as Export-Driven Recovery Continues,” The Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100618-702784.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines)

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Japanese government

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of over 2% in the decade ahead.  

Japan prolif doesn’t escalate

Sapolsky 97 (Harvard, Professor of Public Policy and Organization – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Eugune Gholz and Daryl Press, Doctoral Candidates – MIT, “Come Home, America”, International Security, Spring)

Despite the favorable Asian conventional balances, some

AND

they decide to pursue their own deterrent forces.

No tech to prolif

Endo 7 (Tetsuya, Former Vice Chairman – Atomic Energy Commission of Japan, “How Realistic Is a Nuclear-Armed Japan?”, 8-23, Policy Forum Online, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/07063Endo.html)

Technologically, Japan is capable of developing nuclear

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and arming oneself with nuclear weapons "effectively".

compound would have proved extremely difficult.

No Asian War –

A) Economics

Eskildsen 9 (Robert, Assistant Professor of Japanese History – Smith College “Whither East Asia? Reflections on Japan’s Colonial Experience in Taiwan”, The Asia-Pacific Journal, 3-22, http://japanfocus.org/-Robert-Eskildsen/2058)

The Meiji Restoration gave Japan the flexibility to

AND

contemporary strategic conflicts stand out as particularly troublesome.

B) Multilateral structures check escalation

Desker 8 (Barry, Dean – S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, “Why War is Unlikely in Asia: Facing the Challenge from China”, 6-4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-desker/)

War in Asia is thinkable but it is

AND

+ 3, ARF which ASEAN has conceived.

2NC - Saudi

Timeframe – petrodollar could collapse this year – 2012 is key

Katusa, 1/24 (Marin, accomplished investment analyst, is the senior editor of Casey Energy Opportunities, Casey Energy Confidential, and Casey's Energy Report, “The Petrodollar, Iran, and Gold - What You Need to Know”, http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.12/petrodollar.html)

With all this knowledge in hand, it

AND

a slow but sure decimation of the dollar.

Economic downturn causes the U.S. to withdraw from democracy engagement in the Middle East.

Bacevich, 2/27/2011 (Andrew J., Strategy: Sit On Your Hands, Newsweek, p. http://www.newsweek.com/2011/02/27/strategy-sit-on-your-hands.html)

Then came the financial crisis of 2008.

AND

that decades of American folly had helped create.

That’s independently causes nuclear war – and turns hegemony

Mandelbaum 8 (Michael, Professor of Foreign Policy – Johns Hopkins University, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224)

If closer scrutiny does turn the public against

AND

, more dangerous, and less prosperous place.

At best, an American withdrawal would bring with it some of the political anxiety typical during the Cold War and a measure of the economic uncertainty that characterized the years before World War II.  At worst, the retreat of American power could lead to a repetition of the great global economic failure and the bloody international conflicts the world experienced in the 1930s and 1940s. Indeed, the potential for economic calamity and wartime destruction is greater at the outset of the new century than it was in the first half of the preceding one because of the greater extent of international economic interdependence and the higher levels of prosperity—there is more to lose now than there was then—and because of the presence, in large numbers, of nuclear weapons.

Increased Saudi-China energy relations crushes East Asian hegemony

Woodrow, 2 (Thomas, former senior China analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency, “The Sino-Saudi Connection”, November 7, The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief,

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=3532&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=192&no_cache=1)

Although current Chinese relations with Saudi Arabia are

AND

the major power in the Eastern Asian basin.

East Asian leadership key to prevent multiple scenarios of conflict

Clinton, 11 (Hillary – Secretary of State, America’s Pacific Century, Foreign Policy, November, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=0,0)

As the war in Iraq winds down and

AND

the military activities of the region's key players.

And, US pro-democracy stance has put Saudi on edge – they’ve signaled China an alternative ally

Teitelbaum, 10/26 (Joshua, senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, “Saudi Arabia Faces a Changing Middle East”, GLORIA Center, http://www.gloria-center.org/2011/10/saudi-arabia-faces-a-changing-middle-east/)

U.S.-SAUDI RELATIONS: IT’S COMPLICATED

The so-called Arab Spring was the

AND

Saudis have been hedging their bets.[77]

Saudi faith in the US alliance is fragile – recent arms deal has placated concerns over democracy

Landler and Myers, 12/29 (Mark and Steven, “With $30 Billion Arms Deal, U.S. Bolsters Saudi Ties”, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/world/middleeast/with-30-billion-arms-deal-united-states-bolsters-ties-to-saudi-arabia.html?_r=2&hp)

HONOLULU — Fortifying one of its key allies

AND

on Saudi affairs at the University of Vermont.

Yemeni democracy assistance causes Saudi freak out and backlash to the US

Ahmed, 11 (Ali Al, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs in Washington D.C., expert on Saudi Arabian political affairs including terrorism, Islamic movements, Wahhabi Islam, Saudi political history, Saudi-American relations, “How Saudi Arabia Thwarted Uprisings in Yemen and Bahrain”, July 19, FIKRA Forum, http://fikraforum.org/?p=1485)

Give the Saudi monarchy their dues. They

AND

actively shape the region to fit its needs.

Plan causes Saudi and China to solidify energy ties

Pollack, 11 (Jonathan D., Senior Fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center in the Foreign Policy Program of the Brookings Institution, Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and Chairman of the Asia, Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College, “China: Unease from Afar”, The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East , Brookings Institution Book, http://www.scribd.com/doc/81817898/3/Notes)

The political and social turbulence in the Arab

AND

friction in Saudi relations with the United States.

Saudi Arabia is actively trying to dilute the revolution in Yemen – plan would be a slap in the face

Dabrowska, 3/28 (Karen, “Saudi’s Response to the Arab Spring: Interests and Realpolitik”, The Tripoli Post, http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=8099)

Saudi Arabia’s response to the Arab spring has

AND

system stays but some individuals are taken out.

Recent evidence that AQAP has the resources to move –

Gardner, 1/18 (Frank, BBC security correspondent, “Yemen crisis: Is al-Qaeda gaining ground?” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16612072)

Still resilient

AQAP is not thought to have more than

AND

. They are a group on the move."

And, they could easily move to Iran – comparatively the best safe haven

Jones, 1/29 (Seth G., Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, “Al Qaeda in Iran: Why Tehran is Accommodating the Terrorist Group”, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137061/seth-g-jones/al-qaeda-in-iran?page=show)

Virtually unnoticed, since late 2001, Iran

AND

willingness to allow some activity sets it apart.

AQAP inevitable – they’ll just move somewhere else – plan can’t solve

Silber, 12/30 (Mitchell, Washington Times, The mutating al Qaeda threat, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/30/the-mutating-al-qaeda-threat/)

Ten years ago last month, the now

AND

vigilance, commitment of resources and staying power.

Warming is irreversible

ANI, 10 (“IPCC has underestimated climate-change impacts, say scientists”, 3-20, One India, http://news.oneindia.in/2010/03/20/ipcchas-underestimated-climate-change-impacts-sayscientis.html)

According to Charles H. Greene, Cornell

AND

risks of dangerous climate change," said Green.

This means even a low probability of our net benefit outweighs because we access extinction

Bostrom, professor of philosophy at Oxford, July 2005 (Nick, Transcribed from by Packer, 4:38-6:12 of the talk at http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/44, accessed 10/20/07)

Now if we think about what just reducing

AND

extinct it should still be a high priority.

Environmental collapse makes war inevitable

Thomas Homer-Dixon, assistant professor of political science and director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Programme at the University of Toronto, associate fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, 1998, World Security: Challenges for a New Century, Third Edition, edited by Michael Klare and Yogesh Chandrani, p. 342-3

Experts have proposed numerous possible links between environmental

AND

trade disputes—and undermining possibilities for cooperation.

Nuclear war doesn’t turn the environment

Brian Martin, Associate Professor in Science, Technology and Society University of Wollongong, 1984 (Scientists Against Nuclear Arms Newsletter, no.16, May 1984, p.5-6. http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/84sana1.html)

Yet in spite of the widespread belief in

AND

devastating to justify the greatest efforts against it.

Perm undermines the credibility of private aid – tanks solvency and the net benefit.

Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

[*826]  One of the key strengths

AND

the effectiveness and the independence of charitable organizations.

Mutually exclusive – private aid is a distinct option.

Norris, 5/5/2011 (John – executive director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative, Five Steps to Make Our Aid More Effective and Save More Than $2 Billion, Center for American Progress, p. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/05/foreign_aid_savings.html)

Ending monetization would make development programs more effective

AND

proposed doing just that with Community Development funds.

*PVO = private voluntary organizations

Severs –

Its means ownership.

English Grammar 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

Mine, yours, his, hers,

AND

disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

Democracy assistance must be funds.

Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties. 

Private actor independence is key to soft power.

Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

Paradoxically, the contributions of nonprofit organizations to

AND

- that inures to the state writ large.

Definitions –

Substantial means a definite increase.

Words and Phrases 64 (40W&P 759)

The words" outward, open, actual

AND

; undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.

Increase means “to make greater, as in number, size, strength, or quality; augment; add to: to increase taxes.”– Random House Dictionary 2010.

Its means ownership.

English Grammar 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

Mine, yours, his, hers,

AND

disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

Democracy assistance must be expertise and funds.

Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties. 

Private aid is distinct from government aid.

Adelman, November/December 2003 (Carol – director of the Center for Global Prosperity at the Hudson Institute, The Privatization of Foreign Aid: Reassessing National Largesse, Foreign Affairs, p. lexis)

What such criticism fails to take into account

AND

is private money that is making the difference.

CP solves the signal of good will and generates soft power.

Pozen, December 2006 (David – J.D. Yale Law School, Remapping the Charitable Deduction, 39 Conn. L. Rev. 531, p. lexis)

On the other hand, increasing government aid

AND

, yet wholeheartedly-America supports the revolution.

The CP eventually forces federal modeling of the plan.

Kapur and Whittle, Summer 2010 (Devesh – director of the Center for Advanced Study of India, and Dennis- founder and chief executive officer of Global Giving, Can the Privatization of Foreign Aid Enhance Accountability?, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int’l L. & Pol. 1143, p. lexis)

A more fruitful approach is for private aid

AND

to ignore the feedback of its own citizens.

U.S. gets credit for the plan.

Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

Nye primarily views international nonprofit organizations as attracting

AND

countries accrue reputational benefits to the United States.