DEngagement
Democracy push won’t increase public support**
Heydemann, senior advisor for Middle East initiatives – USIP, 11/21/’11
(Steven, “THE VIEW FROM THE MIDDLE EAST: THE 2011 ARAB PUBLIC OPINION POLL,” Brookings)
What I wanted to focus ...to the fore.
Interventions are never seen as positive
Telhami, professor of peace and development – U Maryland, senior fellow – Brookings, 11/21/’11
(Shibley, “THE VIEW FROM THE MIDDLE EAST: THE 2011 ARAB PUBLIC OPINION POLL,” Brookings)
And here you have, ...rebels to succeed.
No solvency – alt causes and future disputes
Gause, 12/21
(Pol Sci-Vermont, Don't Just Do Something, Stand There! http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/21/america_arab_spring_do_nothing?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)
Not only should the United ...hearts and minds.
Decline doesn’t cause war
Morris Miller, Professor of Administration @ the University of Ottawa, ‘2K
(Interdisciplinary Science Review, v 25 n4 2000 p ingenta connect)
The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a sudden economic crisis that exacerbates poverty and growing disparities in wealth and incomes? Perhaps one could argue, as some scholars do, that it is some dramatic event or sequence of such events leading to the exacerbation of poverty that, in turn, leads to this deplorable denouement. This exogenous factor might act as a catalyst for a violent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the political leadership who would then possibly be tempted to seek a diversion by finding or, if need be, fabricating an enemy and setting in train the process leading to war. According to a study under- taken by Minxin Pei and Ariel Adesnik of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, there would not appear to be any merit in this hypothesis. After studying ninety-three episodes of economic crisis in twenty-two countries in Latin America and Asia in the years since the Second World War they concluded that:19 Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be wrong ... The severity of economic crisis – as measured in terms of inflation and negative growth – bore no relationship to the collapse of regimes ... (or, in democratic states, rarely) to an outbreak of violence ... In the cases of dictatorships and semi-democracies, the ruling elites responded to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another).
...
Recent empirics go neg
Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25/’9
(Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)
When the global financial crisis ...training local forces.
No risk of canal disruptions and no impact
Vicki Vaughan 11, Express News, “Suez Canal skirts unrest in Egypt”, February 4, http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Suez-Canal-skirts-unrest-in-Egypt-997497.php
But economists say the jitters...supply the grain.
No challengers
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)
But in spite of the ...free of illusion.
No impact to decline
Adams, Professor U.S. Foreign Policy Program – American University, Distinguished Fellow – Stimson Center, ‘11
(Gordon, “A Leaner and Meaner Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Iss. 1, January/February)
Some people point to China ...and economic development.
Heg doesn’t solve war
Mastanduno, 9 – Professor of Government at Dartmouth
(Michael, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco)
During the cold war the ...its own way.
China
1NC Transition
...
Transition will be stable-hiccups are not deal-breakers
Ottoway 12-29-11
Marina, Senior associate in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A Strong Start to Tunisia's Long Journey
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/strong-start-tunisias-long-journey-6317?page=1
One year after the ...eighty-nine.
Unfavorable conditions don’t mean the transition is screwed
UMCI 12-30-11
“A Strong Start to Tunisia's Long Journey”, United Mediterranean Council of Industries, l/n
There are important lessons in ...no support.
Plan doesn’t solve-econ outweighs
Prince 2-8-12
Rob, Assistant Prof @ Univ. Of Denver, Korbel Int’l School,
http://robertjprince.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/tunisia-crossroads/
But by far the ...and the IMF.
1NC Demo Model F/L
Tunisia’s seen as the exception, not the model
Aziz 2-14-12
Abdel, “ Tunisia's Revolution: a model or an exception?”, Fellow Gulf Research Center
http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article563452.ece
When Tunisia's protests started ...Syria and Yemen.
Theory behind modeling is flawed, used to conceal authoritarianism
Kenes 11
Bulent, “Is democracy a la Egypt or a la Tunisia a possibility?”, Editor in chief of Today's Zaman, the most circulated English daily in Turkey.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-259790-is-democracy-a-la-egypt-or-a-la-tunisia-a-possibility.html
However, as I believe ...invent different models.
No modeling-Multiple structural factors prevent MENA spread-
Kaplan 2-2-12
Seth, Managing Partner Alpha International Consulting.
http://www.globaldashboard.org/2012/02/02/is-the-map-of-the-middle-east-about-to-change/
If people in the ...easy to overcome.
1nc – no global transition
Democratization in one country won’t spillover globally
Joshua Kurlantzick, CFR Southeast Asia Fellow, 5/19/11, "The Great Democracy Meltdown ," http://www.cfr.org/democracy-and-human-rights/great-democracy-meltdown/p25142
But China and Russia are ...human rights abuses.
No global democracy—multiple authoritarian states will never transition
Dan Drezner, Fletcher School IR Professor, 6/6/11, "Is democracy going melting down or growing up? [UPDATED]," http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/05/is_democracy_going_melting_down_or_growing_up
Kurlantzick and Freedom House do ...for the future.
Enviro Defense
Species adapt and migrate
Ian Thompson et al., Canadian Forest Service, Brendan Mackey, The Australian National University, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Steven McNulty, USDA Forest Service, Alex Mosseler, Canadian Forest Service, 2009, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity “Forest Resilience, Biodiversity, and Climate Change” Convention on Biological Diversity
While resilience can be attributed to many levels of organization of biodiversity, the genetic composition of species is the most fundamental. Molecular genet- ic diversity within a species, species diversity within a forested community, and community or ecosystem diversity across a landscape and bioregion represent expressions of biological diversity at different scales. The basis of all expressions of biological diversity is the genotypic variation found in populations. The individuals that comprise populations at each level of ecological organization are subject to natural se- lection and contribute to the adaptive capacity or re- silience of tree species and forest ecosystems (Mull- er-Starck et al. 2005). Diversity at each of these levels has fostered natural (and artificial) regeneration of forest ecosystems and facilitated their adaptation to dramatic climate changes that occurred during the quaternary period (review by: DeHayes et al. 2000); this diversity must be maintained in the face of antici- pated changes from anthropogenic climate warming. Genetic diversity (e.g., additive genetic variance) within a species is important because it is the basis for the natural selection of genotypes within popu- lations and species as they respond or adapt to en- vironmental changes (Fisher 1930, Pitelka 1988, Pease et al. 1989, Burger and Lynch 1995, Burdon and Thrall, 2001, Etterson 2004, Reusch et al. 2005, Schaberg et al. 2008). The potential for evolutionary change has been demonstrated in numerous long- term programmes based on artificial selection (Fal- coner 1989), and genetic strategies for reforestation in the presence of rapid climate change must focus on maintaining species diversity and genetic diversi- ty within species (Ledig and Kitzmiller 1992). In the face of rapid environmental change, it is important to understand that the genetic diversity and adap- tive capacity of forested ecosystems depends largely on in situ genetic variation within each population of a species (Bradshaw 1991). Populations exposed to a rate of environmental change exceeding the rate at which populations can adapt, or disperse, may be doomed to extinction (Lynch and Lande 1993, Burger and Lynch 1995). Genetic diversity deter- mines the range of fundamental eco-physiological tolerances of a species. It governs inter-specific competitive interactions, which, together with dispersal mechanisms, constitute the fundamental de- terminants of potential species responses to change (Pease et al. 1989, Halpin 1997). In the past, plants have responded to dramatic changes in climate both through adaptation and migration (Davis and Shaw 2001). The capacity for long-distance migration of plants by seed dispersal is particularly important in the event of rapid environmental change. Most, and probably all, species are capable of long-distance seed disper- sal, despite morphological dispersal syndromes that would indicate morphological adaptations primarily for short-distance dispersal (Cwyner and MacDon- ald 1986, Higgins et al. 2003). Assessments of mean migration rates found no significant differences be- tween wind and animal dispersed plants (Wilkinson 1997, Higgins et al. 2003). Long-distance migration can also be strongly influenced by habitat suitabil- ity (Higgins and Richardson 1999) suggesting that rapid migration may become more frequent and vis- ible with rapid changes in habitat suitability under scenarios of rapid climate change. The discrepancy between estimated and observed migration rates during re-colonization of northern temperate forests following the retreat of glaciers can be accounted for by the underestimation of long-distance disper- sal rates and events (Brunet and von Oheimb 1998, Clark 1998, Cain et al. 1998, 2000). Nevertheless, concerns persist that potential migration and ad- aptation rates of many tree species may not be able to keep pace with projected global warming (Davis 1989, Huntley 1991, Dyer 1995, Collingham et al. 1996, Malcolm et al. 2002). However, these models refer to fundamental niches and generally ignore the ecological interactions that also govern species dis- tributions.
...
2. Biodiversity is resilient - models are based on islands and not true for larger land areas
Lomborg 01; (Bjørn, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, Danish author, academic, “The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World,” Cambridge University Press, originally published in Danish in 1998)
The correlation between the number ...species of birds?
3. Alt cause – climate
Ian Thompson et al., Canadian Forest Service, Brendan Mackey, The Australian National University, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Steven McNulty, USDA Forest Service, Alex Mosseler, Canadian Forest Service, 2009, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity “Forest Resilience, Biodiversity, and Climate Change” Convention on Biological Diversity
Superimposed on the many other ...al. 2008).
1nc at: taiwan invasion
No war over Taiwan – relations stabilizing
Bush, 10
[Richard C Bush III, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, “China-Taiwan: Recent Economic, Political, and Military Developments Across the Strait, and Implications for the United States,” 3/18/10, Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2010/0318_china_economy_bush.aspx]
What is the trajectory of ...intentions—remains.
Interdependence will deescalate conflict
Saunders and Kastner, 9
[Phillip, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, Scott, assistant professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park, “Is a China-Taiwan Peace Deal in the Cards?” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/27/is_a_china_taiwan_peace_deal_in_the_cards?page=0,0]
Since Ma Ying-jeou's ...Taiwan since 2007.
No China war – cooperation
Friedberg 5, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs and Director of Policy Planning in the Office of the Vice President, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 7–45
Fortunately, a number of ...domestic political reforms.
No escalation – US wins decisively
AP, 3/9/’11
(“China challenges U.S. edge in Asia-Pacific”)
The U.S. ...500 by then.
AT: African War
African conflict won’t draw in others
Morenike Taire, April 9, 2004, Vanguard (Nigeria), Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, p. Lexis
Defining our role may not ...cool and collected.
Other African conflicts make their impact inevitable
Dr. Jeffrey Deutsch, founder of the Rabid Tiger Project, December 15, 2002, The Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol. II, No. 10, “Africa’s Horn O’Plenty (of Trouble),” http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n10.html
We must keep in mind ...President Afworki Isaias.
1nc solvency frontline
SSR fails in transitioning states
Nathan, visiting fellow – Crisis States Programme @ London School of Economics, August ‘4
(Laurie, “Obstacles to Security Sector Reform in New Democracies,” Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management)
2.The problem of ...disputes through violence.
Empirically proven
Scheye, Justice and Security Consultant – Security System Implementation Framework @ OECD, ‘10
(Eric, “Realism and Pragmatism in Security Sector Development,” USIP Special Report 257, October)
The time has come to ...world’s conflicts.
US fails—no technical experts
Hermsmeyer, director of partnership policy and strategy – Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, cochaired an SSR working group, ‘10
(Gregory, “Institutionalizing Security Sector Reform,” USIP)
Donor governments are recognizing the ...practices and priorities.
SSR uses contractors
Perito, senior program officer – Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations @ USIP, ‘9
(Robert, “The Private Sector in Security Sector Reform,” USIPeace Briefing)
Secretary of Defense Gates and ...from closer coordination.
Takes out solvency
Perito, senior program officer – Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations @ USIP, ‘9
(Robert, “The Private Sector in Security Sector Reform,” USIPeace Briefing)
Cost: Commercial firms charge ...civilian law enforcement.
SSR destroys stability—causes recipient overload
Hendrickson, senior research fellow – Conflict, Security and Development Group, ‘2
(Dylan, “The challenges of security sector reform,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2002: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security)
Security sector reforms can also ...hands of criminals.
Bioterror
No impact – slow spread and defense mechanisms
Mueller 99, John Mueller, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ Ohio State and Karl Mueller, June, ’99 (Foreign Affairs, l/n)
Biological weapons seem a promising ...civil defense measures.
china
Bush rlts stabilize
Interdependence will deescalate conflict
Saunders and Kastner, 9
[Phillip, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, Scott, assistant professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park, “Is a China-Taiwan Peace Deal in the Cards?” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/27/is_a_china_taiwan_peace_deal_in_the_cards?page=0,0]
Since Ma Ying-jeou's ...Taiwan since 2007.
at: democratic policing not key
This is dumb – “democratic police training” is their way of getting out of T, they have no card that describes it as being different from police training.
...
All the link cards answer this – the “police” part would still trade off.
...
Democratic/civil policing is key to a sustainable Afghan transition
Bue 11, founding partner of Armitage International, previously Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Stability, first member listed of The Afghan National Police Working Group, (Kara, "The Police Challenge: Advancing Afghan National Police Training," June 13, Project 2049 Institute, project2049.net/documents/police_challenge_advancing_afghan_national_police_training.pdf
Our first observation relates ...fluid, and flexible.
