2a1AC – INH
Inherency
The U.S. will provide direct aid to overthrow Assad.
Rogin, Foreign Policy, 3-6-12
Josh: “Obama administration moves to aid Syrian opposition,” The Cable - Foreign Policy, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/06/obama_administration_moves_to_aid_syrian_opposition [ACG CEDA 1]
The Obama …… in our Syria policy."
State has to determine how to program aid.
Rogin 3-6-12
Josh: “Obama administration moves to aid Syrian opposition,” The Cable - Foreign Policy, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/06/obama_administration_moves_to_aid_syrian_opposition [ACG CEDA 1]
As part of the new outreach, …… We're working on that now," the official explained.
Aid will likely target the SNC, despite divisions.
Bloomberg 1-31-12
Nicole Gaouette: “Syrian Opposition Council Backed by U.S. Hindered by Divisions,” Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-31/syrian-opposition-council-backed-by-u-s-hindered-by-divisions.html [LVC D8T]
Ø US supports SNC
Ø “Differing strategies and goals.”
Title: Syrian Opposition Council Backed by U.S. Hindered by Divisions
Western plans to ….. say the group faces high hurdles.
Assad’s fall is inevitable, but it will be violent now
Daily News & Analysis 3-10 “Syrian army close to collapse, says defecting top General,” http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_syrian-army-close-to-collapse-says-defecting-top-general_1660585
The days of Syrian President …. Syrian regime's downfall could be near.
Knowledge of many groups is limited.
Phillips, Heritage Foundation, 2-15-12
James, Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs, Heritage Foundation: “Next Steps for U.S. in Syria Crisis,” 2-15-12 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/02/next-steps-for-us-in-syria-crisis [CEDA TRIP]
As Assad’s hold on the …. operate in an ad hoc manner.
1AC – ADV
Advantage - Syria
Assad’s going “all-in” against the opposition.
White, Washington Institute, 2-14-12
Jeffrey, Defense Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: “Bashar al-Assad vs. the Syrian People,” PolicyWatch #1900, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3451 [ACG D8T]
As mentioned above, …… effects on the population.
Stability under Assad is impossible. Syria can’t revert to the way it was before the uprising.
Ø Takes out Kiss of Death: without legitimacy, Assad can’t portray opposition as tools of the U.S.
ICG 3-5-12
International Crisis Group: “Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria,” Policy Briefing, Middle East Briefing N°32, Damascus/Brussels, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/B032-now-or-never-a-negotiated-transition-for-syria.pdf [JPW CEDA 4]
Even if the regime can survive …… claim to nationwide legitimacy.
Delay risks escalation and a failed transition.
Alhomayed, Editor-in-Chief, Asharq Al-Awsat, 1-19-12
Tariq: “The cost of the fall of al-Assad,” Asharq Al-Awsat, http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=28152 [CEDA 6]
The true cost of delaying ….allies in the region.
Assad’s violence will produce sectarian wars throughout the Middle East and South Asia.
Nasr, International Politics Prof, Tufts, 11
Vali, Foreign Affairs Policy Advisory Board, State Department, Aug. 27: “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2 [CEDA 8]
The Arab Spring is a hopeful ….., it is already happening.
Largest threat to one-fourth of the world
Shibil Sidiqqi, Fellow, Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics, 4-15-10
“Terrorism: The nuclear summit's 'straw man',” http://98.130.246.96/archive_articles_details.asp?articleid=1055&typeid=3
However, the ….. remains the largest global nuclear threat.
Multiple factors make Syria the most likely scenario for global escalation.
L.A. Times 3-18-12
Patrick J. McDonnell, “Syria's conflict has significance far beyond its borders,” http://articles.latimes.com/2012/mar/18/world/la-fg-syria-regional-stability-20120319 [CEDA 6]
The raging conflict …..playing for their future advantage.
Alliances embroil the U.S. in war.
Wood, Award-Winning Journalist, 1-4-12
David, 40 years reporting for Time, Los Angeles Times, Newhouse News Service, and The Baltimore Sun: “U.S.-Iran Tensions: Mideast Showdown Builds As United States Tightens Military Ties To Israel,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/us-iran-tensions-israel-joint-military-exercises_n_1183952.html [CEDA 6]
Storm clouds darkening …. borders with Israel, Lebanon and Turkey, a NATO ally.
Saudi Arabia will host Pakistani nuclear weapons in response to sectarian violence and deteriorating relations with the U.S.
Guzansky, Institute for National Security Studies, ’11 [Gender Modified]
Yoel, 7-1, “Tehran tests Saudis’ nerve on nuclear weapons,” The Australian, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555
Until recently ……International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.
South-Asian nuclear instability would result.
Roberts, History Prof, Cambridge, ’11
Andrew, Also: Royal Society of Literature Fellow, Jan. 2, “Iran’s Nuclear Domino Effect,” THE DAILY BEAST, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/01/02/irans-nuclear-weapons-could-lead-to-a-saudi-and-pakistan-alliance.html [WFU]
Where Edelman ….significantly more dangerous.
That ends the world
Alan Robock is professor of climatology at Rutgers University and associate director of the school's Center for Environmental Prediction, where he studies many aspects of climate change. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and a participant in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Owen Brian Toon is chair of the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and a fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics there. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union. “South Asian Threat? Local Nuclear War = Global Suffering”, from the January 2010 issue of Scientific American magazine
People have several …. create a global environmental disaster.
1AC – Plan
Plan: The United States Department of State should commission participatory evaluations of State Department democracy assistance for Syria.
The phrase “State Department democracy assistance” refers to programs classified by the State Department as “democracy assistance”.
1AC – Solvency
State Department should evaluate assistance to the Syrian opposition.
Abdel ’11
Fattah Hussein, reporter in the Middle East for “All Voices,” Apr. 19: “From Bush, EU funded Syrian opposition WikiLeaks.” http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/8832596-from-bush-eu-funded-syrian-opposition-wikileaks [LVC D8T]
The U.S. State ….. Syria," said the cable.
Opportunities for evaluating diverse groups exist.
Phillips, Heritage Foundation, 2-15-12
James, Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs, Heritage Foundation: “Next Steps for U.S. in Syria Crisis,” 2-15-12 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/02/next-steps-for-us-in-syria-crisis [CEDA TRIP]
As Assad’s hold ….that operate in an ad hoc manner.
Meetings can take place in Lebanon.
al-Khafaji, MENA Fellow, NIMD, ’10
Isam, NIMD = Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy, “Prospects for Political Parties Assistance Project in the Middle East and North Africa,” Nov. 12, http://www.nimd.org/documents/P/prospects_for_political_party_assistance_project_in_the_middle_east_and_north_africa.pdf [ACG CEDA 6]
This welcome revival, ….., such as the Carnegie Endowment.
The plan solves in three ways.
A. Unity and social capital.
Incorporating groups on the ground will increase unity.
Tabler & Pollack, Washington Institute, 3-26-12
Andrew J., Next Generation Fellow, and David, Kaufman Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Not Supporting the Opposition "Within Syria" Is Supporting Assad,” PolicyWatch #1914, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3465 [ACG NDT]
Although the United States, ,,,,,, elements.
Kushner, Regional Monitoring and Evaluation Officer, UNICEF, ’6
Saville, Officer for Latin America & the Carribbean: “Democracy and Evaluation,” in New Trends in Development Evaluation (Segone, ed.), Evaluation Working Papers #5, UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS and IPEN, http://www.unicef.org/ceecis/New_trends_Dev_EValuation.pdf, p. 36
Ø ACG PLS: Re-check for solvency.
One of the reasons for seeking …… key areas of social action, can build bridges of communication.
The process generates social capital.
Kushner, Regional Monitoring and Evaluation Officer, UNICEF, ’6
Saville, Officer for Latin America & the Carribbean: “Democracy and Evaluation,” in New Trends in Development Evaluation (Segone, ed.), Evaluation Working Papers #5, UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS and IPEN, http://www.unicef.org/ceecis/New_trends_Dev_EValuation.pdf, p. 36 [ACG CSU]
Most recently, concerns …. the concerns of other stakeholders.
Social capital solves sectarian conflict and kiss of death.
Burnell, Democracy Assistance Guru, December
Peter, Politics & International Studies Prof, Warwick, 2011: Lessons of Experience in International Democracy Support: Implications for Supporting Democratic Change in North Africa, UNU-Wider (United Nations University - World Institute for Development Economics Research) Working Paper #2011/84, http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/working-papers/2011/en_GB/wp2011-084/_files/86687158764241318/default/wp2011-084.pdf, p. 6 [ACG CSU]
Democracy support ……, even if one consequence is some loss of direct accountability to the donors.
Syrian unity and international support are the keys to a stable transition.
Byman, et al, Brookings, 3-15-12
Daniel L., Director of Research, Michael Doran, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Kenneth M. Pollack, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, all at Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings, and Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, “Saving Syria: Assessing Options for Regime Change,” 3-15-12, http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2012/0315_syria_saban.aspx [CEDA]
Diplomatic “success,” moreover….. for a healthy political transition.
A broader coalition is key to a transition.
Randa Slim, adjunct research fellow at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East Institute, ‘12
“Unite Syria’s opposition first,” http://www.kurdnas.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=320:unite-syrias-opposition-first&catid=36:reports1&Itemid=56
This coalition-building process …… will hasten its demise.
B. Delivery and implementation of democracy assistance.
Grim, Senior Researcher, Pew Forum on Religious and Public Life, ’6
Brian J., et al., “Measuring International Socio-Religious Values and Conflict by Coding US State Department Reports,” JSM Proceedings, AAPOR-Section on Survey Research Methods, American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR) annual conference, https://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/y2006/Files/JSM2006-000040.pdf, p. 4125
4. Conclusions
Cross-national ….. data, such questions can be empirically explored.
The plan’s effective. Statistics prove.
Cullen, The Evaluation Center, ’11
Anne E., Principal Research Associate, The Evaluation Center, Western Michigan University, et al. [Chris L. S. Coryn and Jim Rugh], Sep.: “The Politics and Consequences of Including Stakeholders in International Development Evaluation,” American Journal of Evaluation, 32 (3): 345 -361, DOI: 10.1177/1098214010396076, p. 353 [NDT]
According to the ….. However, in interviews different positive consequences were identified.
Evaluation improves the effectiveness and efficiency of democracy assistance.
NRC Committee ’8 “DG” = “Democracy and Governance”
National Research Council Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs: Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge through Evaluations and Research, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12164.html, p. 27 [ACG]
It is therefore crucial, if ……particular countries.
Democracy assistance can be effective if it’s not overbearing. Evaluation and long-term planning are essential.
Lincoln A. Mitchell, International Politics Prof, Columbia, and David L. Phillips, Project Director, NCAFP (National Committee on American Foreign Policy), ’8
Enhancing Democracy Assistance: A Research Project of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy AND Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University AND The Atlantic Council of the United States, Jan., http://www.acus.org/publication/enhancing-democracy-assistance, p. 3 [WPT UPD]
Today's global …..insuring better training and preparation for field staff, and emphasizing more rigorous project evaluation.
C. Political training for post-Assad government.
Crawford and Kearton 1 [PE = Participatory Evaluation]
Gordon and Iain, Dec.: “Evaluating Democracy and Governance Assistance,” ESCOR Research Report No. 7894, http://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/PDF/Outputs/Mis_SPC/R7894-FinRep.pdf, [CEDA TRIP]
PE provides the key input ….. act of democratisation.
Political inclusion and representation ensure a stable transition.
Danin, CFR, 2-21-12
Robert M., Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations: “Debating U.S. Options in Syria,” Council on Foreign Relations Expert Roundup, http://www.cfr.org/syria/debating-us-options-syria/p27402 [ACG CEDA 8]
The United States should …. appoint a special envoy to Syria to advance diplomatic efforts.
Evaluation builds capacity in democratic governance.
Peter Burnell, Politics and International Studies Prof, Warwick, ’8.
“From Evaluating Democracy Assistance to Appraising Democracy Promotion,” Political Studies 56 (2) (June 1): 414-434. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9248.2007.00653.x
One view is that ….. of strategies begins to look unassailable.
Democracy assistance includes support for capacity-building.
Burnell December
Peter, Politics & International Studies Prof, Warwick, 2011: Lessons of Experience in International Democracy Support: Implications for Supporting Democratic Change in North Africa, UNU-WIDER (United Nations University - World Institute for Development Economics Research) Working Paper #2011/84, http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/working-papers/2011/en_GB/wp2011-084/_files/86687158764241318/default/wp2011-084.pdf, p. 5 [ACG CSU]
Democracy assistance projects ….. and reversals in the early years.
Capacity building is the philosopher’s stone.
Riddell, UK Department for International Development, ’7 [Abbrev Filled]
Roger, Does Foreign Aid Really Work? p. 207
Aid for capacity building
Though more traditional forms of …..— does it work?
The plan creates a space for negotiation fosters a sense of interdependence.
Lappin, Democracy Assistance Scholar and Practitioner, ’9
Richard, Ph.D. Candidate, Center for Peace Research and Strategic Studies, Leuven (Belgium), Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions, July: “What Democracy? Exploring the Absent Centre of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance,” Journal of Peace, Conflict, and Development, Issue 14, http://www.peacestudiesjournal.org.uk/dl/Issue%2014%20Article%203%20Final%20Version%201.pdf, pp. 23-26
Towards Democracy ‘as ….. …. sustainable for all the actors involved.
Plan solves anti-Americanism.
Tobin, Commentary, ’11
Jonathan S., Senior Online Editor, Commentary, “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” Commentary Magazine, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/ [NDT]
There are no guarantees the …. dissidents who will now know they are not alone.
Russia won’t obstruct U.S. efforts.
Naharnet 3-2-12
“Putin Declines to Back Assad's Syria Regime,” http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/31963 [NDT 1]
Prime Minister Vladimir …. the human losses," Putin added.
Russia will retain influence after the transition.
Daily Star 3-8-12
Michael Young, Opinion Editor, “Make Vladimir Putin reassess in Syria,” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Mar-08/165923-make-vladimir-putin-reassess-in-syria.ashx#axzz1qYpsHZ5N [ACG NDT 1]
In that case, the United …..embrace a change of regime.
Only the U.S. can assist the Syrian transition – the plan will build leverage over time.
Michael Young, Opinion Page Editor, Lebanon Daily Star, 5-19-11
“An Obama road map to change in Syria.” Lebanon Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/mobile/Article.aspx?id=139016.
We’ve heard Obama administration ….. can take such measures.
Participatory evaluation facilitates critical reflexivity and awareness.
Crawford and Kearton 1 [PE = Participatory Evaluation]
Gordon and Iain, Dec.: “Evaluating Democracy and Governance Assistance,” ESCOR Research Report No. 7894, http://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/PDF/Outputs/Mis_SPC/R7894-FinRep.pdf, [CEDA TRIP]
PE provides the key input ….. becomes an act of democratisation.
Neutrality affirms the imperial status quo. Support for Syrian revolutionary claims to humanity affirms emancipatory potential.
Smolenski, Magister of Arts, Philosophy, Warsaw, ’11
Jan, May 29, “Reanimating human rights,” Critical Legal Thinking, http://www.criticallegalthinking.com/?p=3405 [ACG CST]
There is also another ….. a political resolution of a problem we are deeply involved in.
1AC- Underview
The US has actively opposed Assad and pressured his allies for decades.
1. Years of covert support for opposition groups.
Deutsche Welle 4-20-11
“US funding of opposition complicates Obama's Damascus policy,” http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14996885,00.html
The cables produced by WikiLeaks showed ….. has been more supportive of Assad than of the opposition."
The U.S. funds opposition groups in Syria.
Toner, Spokesman, State Department, ’11
Mark, Apr. 18: “Daily Press Briefing,” Middle East Digest, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/mideastdigest/janapr/161155.htm [ACG UTA 7]
QUESTION: Is …… Syria.
Assad perceives this assistance as a threat.
Toner, Again
Mark, 4-18-11: “Daily Press Briefing,” Middle East Digest, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/mideastdigest/janapr/161155.htm [ACG UTA 7]
QUESTION: …. the Syrian Government perceives this kind of assistance as a threat to its control over the Syrian people.
2. Economic sanctions.
RTT News 2-6
“US to Tighten Syria Sanctions.” Global Financial Newswires, February 6, 2012. http://www.rttnews.com/1813218/us-to-tighten-syria-sanctions.aspx?type=usp&pageNum=1 [LVC UTA]
The United States ….. relief we are able to do so."
The UN resolution increased pressure on Assad and support for the opposition.
AFP, citing Clinton, Secretary of State, 2-17-12
“Clinton welcomes 'overwhelming' consensus on Syria,” Agence France Presse, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jQMTSNJCUkagiXVPDtb_O2n5BEUQ?docId=CNG.4a4d727e25cca96e6035c2b7cee70153.1f1
US Secretary of State …. of Syria."
“Friends of Syria” conference.
AFP, citing Clinton, 2-17-12
Secretary of State: “Clinton welcomes 'overwhelming' consensus on Syria,” Agence France Presse, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jQMTSNJCUkagiXVPDtb_O2n5BEUQ?docId=CNG.4a4d727e25cca96e6035c2b7cee70153.1f1
Clinton recalled …. process," Clinton said.
Drones
MSNBC 2-17-12
Jim Miklaszewski: “Officials: US drones monitoring clashes in Syria,” http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/17/10435915-officials-us-drones-monitoring-clashes-in-syria [D8T]
"A good number" …. News' Jim Miklaszewski.
The U.S. is planning military strikes.
Press TV 12-29-11
http://presstv.com/detail/218384.html
The United States …. command-and-control systems.
Senate Resolution
A. It supports the opposition.
ABC News 2-10-12
Sunlen Miller: “Senators Introduce Syrian Resolution to Aid, Not Arm, Opposition,” http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/senators-introduce-syrian-resolution-to-aid-not-arm-opposition/ [ACG D8T]
Amid the …. Syrian opposition.
B. It passed.
AP 2-17-12
“Senate passes resolution condemning Syrian government’s violence against its people,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-resolution-condemning-syrian-governments-violence-against-its-people/2012/02/17/gIQAiHiEKR_story.html [ACG D8T]
The Senate …..way in a likely civil war.
