Plan: The United States federal government should offer the Freedom and Justice Party of Egypt a substantial amount of assistance for political party development.
 
First, the Muslim Brotherhood is currently barred from receiving party assistance—this poisons US credibility

Slavin 11
[Barbara, staff-writer, Inter-press Service, “MIDEAST: U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, April 14 wyo-tjc]
Even where the U.S. appears to …. He did not rule out similar assistance to a party or parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

Second, US contact with the brotherhood is minimal- the plan is essential to create the perception that we are an honest broker

Brown 8-9
[Nathan, CEIP, National Interest, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?”, Aug 9 2011, p. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721 wyo-tjc]
In this sense, the later State Department … would take place. And, to the best of my knowledge, no meetings have followed this policy change.

Finally, Islamist power in Egypt is inevitable—we control uniqueness

Duss 11
[Matthew, Fellow at American Progressive, American Prospect, 1.31, “Making Good on the Cairo Speech”, p. http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=making_good_on_the_cairo_speech wyo-tjc]
Getting our approach to Islamism right … If we’re serious about democracy, there’s no other option.

First, Obama’s initial fund of $65 million has already been allocated but there remains room for tens of millions more to be reprogrammed

McInerney 11
[Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, POMED, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012”, July, p. http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf wyo-tjc]
For many years, Egypt has been at the center of …million for economic growth, much of which has not yet been obligated.

Second, the United States federal government should make the Muslim Brother eligible for its party strengthening assistance.  Even if they say no, this move is essential to American credibility with both Egypt and the greater Arab world

Carothers 11
[Thomas Carothers, Vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “How not to promote democracy in Egypt”, February 24, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406530_pf.html wyo-bb]
As the U.S. government assesses the uprisings across … political favoritism and exclusion would be a good way to start.

Third, an equitable offer of assistance is key to strengthen the alliance and US presence

Kull 11
[Steven, senior research scholar at CISSM and director of the Center on Policy Attitudes, Harvard International Review, “On Egypt: What Should America Do Now?”, March 9, p. http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/682.php wyo-tjc]
But what should the United States do now? …Liberal ideas are strong, but identification with Islam is stronger.

First, the status quo’s assistance model guts credibility and ensures a collapse of American presence in the region

Maginnis 8-17
[Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, Human Events Online, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, p. lexiswyo-tjc]
Candidate Barack Obama's 2008 campaign slogan boasted, "Yes we can." Then the new President promised a 2009 Egyptian audience "a new beginning between the United States and Muslims," and in November 2009 … a group aligned with al-Qaeda, attacked two police stations in el-Arish. 

Second, failure to act soon will cause the US to be frozen out of the entire Middle East

Hughes 8-8
[Michael, Foreign Policy Strategist, New World Strategies Coalition, Huffington Post, “US on Wrong Side of History in Arab Spring”, p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-hughes/us-on-wrong-side-of-histo_b_920864.html wyo-tjc]
Suspicion of the U.S. will not dissipate easily, …seal its fate as the biggest loser of the Arab Spring.

A power vacuum in the Middle East guarantees arms racing and makes a power war more likely by stampeding states into acquiring nuclear and biological weapons.

ROSEN (Prof National Security & Military Affairs @ Harvard) 2003
[Stephen Peter, “An Empire, If You Can Keep It”, National Interest, Spring 2003, p. asp wyo-tjc]
Rather than wrestle with such difficult and … alternatives are that much more attractive.

Middle East Prolif risks global nuclear war

Cirincione 7
[Joseph and Andrew Grotto, Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage: A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran,” March 2007. Available from the World Wide Web at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/iran_report.html]
Regardless of how Iran behaves … this is a recipe for nuclear war.

Bioweapons lead to extinction
Ochs 2
Richard, June 9, pg. http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html. 

Of all the weapons of mass destruction, … hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

And credibility in the Middle East is key to global hegemony

BRZEZINSKI (Former National Security Adviser) 2007
[Zbigniew, Second Chance, P. 159 wyo-tjc]
Beyond destabilizing the Middle East, the Iraq War had a further, much more important consequence. It made the success or failure of U.S. policy … in order to survive in such a turbulent environment.

The collapse of American power creates arms race and great power wars across multiple theaters 

THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies @ Missouri State) 2007
[Bradley, American Empire: A Debate , P. 108 wyo-tjc]
The fourth critical fact to consider is that … world dominated by the United States is an era of peace and stability.

And hegemony controls every impact- American unipolarity contains the possibility of world wars, even if there is instability at the regional level

Jervis 9
[Robert, a professor of international politics at Columbia University, World Politics, “Unipolarity: A structural perspective”, January 2009, p. aspwyo-tjc]
With unipolarity, world war is less of a … it would at most be an enabling one.12

Finally, the plan is the only way to shore up hegemony in the region

Hamid 11
[Shadi, Brookings Analyst, States News Service, April 26, “the Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, p. lexiswyo-tjc]
A great deal is at stake. America was rightly …. This has not happened.

First, Instability, civil war and terrorism are all inevitable because of the failure to engage the Brotherhood

 Enver Guseynov, 7-10
Contributing Writer, Graduated from Eastern Washington University with a major in International Relations,  Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt | Suite101.com http://www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984#ixzz1VVTJXVDL, accessed 8-19-2011,WYO/JF
Within the organization there exists a … but it will likely destabilize Egypt and create additional insecurity in the Middle East.

Second, Integration into democracy is the only way to mitigate extreme tendencies and avoid terrorism

Philpott 8-11
[Daniel, associate professor of political science and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame, Christian Science Monitor, “The Trouble of Secularism in the Middle East”, p. http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/trouble-secularism-middle-east?page=full wyo-tjc]
Since the Arab Spring began last December, ….not an enemy, of American interests and ideals.

Third, the plan discredits extremists by shutting off the recruiting pipe-line by reconciling Islam and democracy

Glenn 11
[Cameron Glenn, B.A. in Middle Eastern Studies and Linguistics, “The Muslim Brotherhood Can Be a Moderate Voice in Islamist Politics”, Aug. 10, 2011, http://www.policymic.com/articles/the-muslim-brotherhood-can-be-a-moderate-voice-in-islamist-politics,
wyo-bb]
In a country struggling to navigate an … pushing Al-Qaeda further into irrelevance.

Finally, their impact turns are just propaganda hype—the best data shows MB should be engaged

Brown 11
[Dr. Nathan Brown, Nonresident Senior Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Testimony House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Subcommittee on Terrorism, HUMINT, Analysis, and Counterintelligence Entitled “Muslim Brotherhood”, April 13, 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/0413_testimony_brown.pdf
 wyo-bb]
Is there a hidden agenda?  I find little …. sincere and genuine indication of  the movement’s position.  

Perm :EU U.S. cooperation is key to democracy assistance THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, 08 “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, accessed 8-3-2011,WYO/JF European Union Programs fail, consulting won’t help McNamera, 11 Sarah McNamera, The Crisis in Libya Exposes a Litany of Failed EU Policies, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/03/The-Crisis-in-Libya-Exposes-a-Litany-of-Failed-EU-Policies, accessed 5-18-2011, WYO/JF Solvency Deficit: U.S. action is key: tools and experience prove Shaun Donnelly, 11 The Neglected Pillar: America's Economic Agenda in the Middle East, http://www.islamdaily.org/en/world-issues/middle-east/9840.article.htm/, Accessed 8-15-2011,WYO/JF

\\

Iran’s nuclear capabilities are just all talk for international influence.  
Kupchan,  8-2
(Cliff Kupchan is a director with Eurasia Group's Middle East practice. “Iran centrifuge news increases risk”. August 2, 2011, http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/02/iran_centrifuge_news_increases_risk uwyokb)

No risk of Saudi - Iranian war. Shia influences are more limited.
Wagner, 8-12-11
(Iran and Saudi Arabia's Wrestling Match, Posted: 8/12/11, Huffington Post, Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a political risk consulting firm based in Connecticut (USA), and author of the forthcoming book Managing Country Risk, to be published by CRC Press in the first quarter of 2012. Azadeh Pourzand is a research analyst with CRS based in the Netherlands.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/iran-and-saudi-arabias-wr_b_925273.html UWYOKB)

Iranian Conflict Inevitable.
Roy, 8-24
(The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory. Olivier Roy. Published 24 August 2011http:www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assaduwyokb)

Alt Cause: Syria conflict will cause Iranian escalation.
Roy, 8-24
(The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory. Olivier Roy. Published 24 August 2011http:www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assaduwyokb)

\\

High Oil Prices Cause  Russian Dutch Disease Which Collapses Democracy And Short Circuits All Econ Offense

Shlapentokh 6
[Vladimir Shlapentokh, PhD in economics @ Soviet Academy of Sciences, professor of sociology @ MSU , “Intoxicated by high oil prices: Political Dutch disease afflicting the Kremlin”, Oil & Gas Journal, November 6, LN]

Russia’s Economy’s collapse inevitable, Multiple Warrants

Aleksashenko 11
[Sergei Aleksashenko, former deputy minister of finance of the Russian Federation and former deputy governor of the Russian central bank, is a scholar-in-residence in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Economic Policy Program. “Russia: Stable but Critical”, July 21, 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/russia-stable-but-critical/419w,
wyo-bb]

Oil Has lost Its Impact on The Economy 

Devyatoy 11
[Alexei Devyatov, Heads a team of macroeconomic analysts responsible for analyzing key events and trends in the Russian and international economy and economic policy, “Reduced Impact of Oil on Russian Economic Growth”, June 15, 2011, http://www.bne.eu/story2735/Reduced_Impact_of_Oil_on_Russian_Economic_Growth,
wyo-bb]

\\

Foreign aid to Egypt non unique now

David Arnold, 8-8
US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question Against backdrop of Arab Spring, lawmakers, experts ponder how to best invest in countries’ political futures , http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html, accessed 9-1-2011,WYO/JF

Non unique foreign aid to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan now

David Arnold, 8-8
US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question Against backdrop of Arab Spring, lawmakers, experts ponder how to best invest in countries’ political futures , http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html, accessed 9-1-2011,WYO/JF

Non Unique- Foreign aid to Libya proves no trade off will happen

Devin Dwyer, 8-22
Writer for abc news, US Military Intervention in Libya Cost At Least $896 Million. http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=byline%3A%22devin%20dwyer%22#0_date, accessed 9-2-2011,WYO/JF

No trade off, aid would come out of the 160 million for foreign funding 

Theo Emery, 8-23
 A writer for the Boston Globe, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya, “http:www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html, accessed 9-1-2011,WYO/JF

Obama’s political capital is high and effective

Mason, 11
Washington Examiner White House correspondent, 11
(Julie, White House Correspondent for the Washington Examiner, Jan 4, [washingtonexaminer.com/politics/white-house/2011/01/obama-tapping-personal-charm-political-capital-combat-gop], jm)

No China war, too costly

Bandow, 11
Doug Bandow, America And China: Finding Cooperation, Avoiding Conflict?,
http://blogs.forbes.com/dougbandow/2011/05/23/america-and-china-finding-cooperation-avoiding-conflict/, accessed 5-24-2011, WYO/JF

No Impact - China’s threats to Taiwan have empirically not been followed through.

McCarthy 4
(Daniel, Feb. 11, Staffwriter for the Asia Times, “Ignore the rhetoric, China won’t attack Taiwan”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FB11Ad06.html, Date accessed: 6/28, JH)

\\

Rise of an independent, democratic Egypt doesn’t pose an existential risk to Israel but does force a diplomatic thaw, forcing Israel to get serious with the peace process*

Walt 11
[Stephen, professor at Harvard, Foreign Policy, “A realist policy for Egypt”, 1.31, p. http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/31/a_realist_policy_for_egypt wyo-tjc]

War in the Middle East goes nuclear; multiple escalation points

Cirincione in 7
[Joseph and Andrew Grotto, Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage: A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran,” March 2007. Available from the World Wide Web at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/iran_report.html]

\\

Terrorism:

Risk of terrorism in Egypt high now

Brett Borkin, 11
Risk of terrorism in Egypt up significantly since 2010:study, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/egypt/risk-of-terrorism-in-egypt-up-significantly-since-2010-study.html, accessed 8-9-2011,WYO/JF

Brotherhood Would Stop Terrorist Cells in Egypt

Byman 11
[Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy
Wall Street Journal, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?”, February 4,2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_protests_byman.aspx wyo-bb]

Muslim Brotherhood is not a terrorist organization

Ali Mansour, 09
The role of Moderate Islamists in the fight against terrorism, case study of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood
The Muslim Brotherhood are a safety valve for Islamists, http://www.ikhwanmisr.com/article.php?id=20940, accessed 8-22-2011,WYO/JF

A2: MB Bad:

Brotherhood will not end ties with Israel, only isolates Egypt further 

Brian Dabbs. 7-21
Brian Dabbs is a freelance journalist based in Cairo. He also currently writes and edits for the English edition of the Egyptian independent newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm. , Muslim Brotherhood No Threat to Egypt's Israel Policy , http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9542/muslim-brotherhood-no-threat-to-egypts-israel-policy, accessed 8-19-2011,WYO/JF

A2: MB Takeover

Any Islamist posturing is short-term and only geared toward the polls—once in power they will minimize their presence and have no say in defense or foreign policy

Hamid 11
[Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, “The Rise of the Islamists”, June 2011, p. aspwyo-tjc]

~\~\

U.S. Saudi cooperation will not be ruined over arab awakening,  to strong of relations over counter terrorism

Boucek 9/12/11
(Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/12/terrorism-out-of-saudi-arabia/53pw#yemen, accessed 9-22-2011,WYO/JF
Will heightened tensions…of the relationship.

Like the MB – perceived as opposite of liberal revolutionaries that they fear

Riedel, Senior Fellow at Brookings, 11
(8/24, Brezhnev in the Hejaz, http://nationalinterest.org/article/brezhnev-the-hejaz-5733 )
Saudi foreign policy ….across the Arab world.

Engagement and assistance to the MB sends the signal that an Egypt with them in government is a good investment, key to FDI and Egyptian development

Byman 11
[Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy
Wall Street Journal, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?”, February 4,2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_protests_byman.aspx wyo-bb]

 
To encourage...myriad other problems. 

Egypt’s economy is key to global economic recovery

Schuman 11
is Director of Research and Public Policy at the Business Alliance for Local Living Economies (BALLE). (Michael, TIME Magazine, 2/2, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?”  http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d )accessed 8-25-2011,WYO/JF

At first glance,.... such an unwelcome surprise.

~\~\

Egypt says no to conditions and is willing to risk billions—being bankrolled by the GCC states means there is no leverage for the US

McInerney 11
[Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, POMED, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012”, July, p. http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf wyo-tjc]
In addition to reducing...U.S.-Egypt relationship.

Threatening or reducing military aid can’t solve any credibility advantages because the public sees it as hypocrisy after years of supporting Mubarak

McInerney 11
[Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, POMED, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012”, July, p. http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf wyo-tjc]
Egyptian democracy advocates...oversight of the military.

~\~\

Counter-interpretation: increase is to make available to previously excluded groups 

Massengale, reporter for Illinois Statehouse News, 1-4-11
Mary, “Madigan’s Fiscal Restraints: Pension Increase Votes and Spending Caps.” http://www.foxillinois.com/news/illinois/Madigans-Fiscal-Restraints-Pension-Increase-Votes-and-Spending-Caps-112912169.html

Madigan on Tuesday… eligible individuals.

And reprogramming is the norm for unspent ESF funds in Egypt

Sharp 11
[Jeremy, CRS Middle East expert, CRS Report, “Egypt in Transition”, June 17, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf wyo-tjc]
Between February and May… investment in Egypt.

Egypt’s Democracy assistance is drawn from Economic Support Funds

Snider 10
[Erin, Cambridge University, “The Political Economy of Democracy Assistance in the Middle East: U.S. Aid for Democracy in Egypt and Morocco since 1990”, 2010 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2 wyo-tjc]
That Egypt was ambivalent…. of Egypt. 

~\~\

Not key to relations- Trade Disputes

Cooper et al., CRS Foreign Affairs, Defense and Trade division, 2010
(William, “The Proposed South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA”, 11-10, http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl33435.pdf), accessed 8-24-2011,WYO/JF
Increased economic …Co-operation and Development (OECD).  

US supporting MB in Syria

World Tribune, 8-17
 (“Report: U.S. favors Muslim Brotherhood over pro-democracy Syrian opposition” http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria1033_08_17.asp, accessed 9-18-2011,WYO/JF
The administration…Syrian people." 

Empirically no escalation – deterrence has prevented conflict for 60 years

Kang, 10
 – professor of international relations and business and director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California (12/31/10, David C., “Korea’s New Cold War,” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653?page=1, accessed 9-18-2011,WYO/JF
However, despite dueling …would cease to exist. 

~\~\

Gonzaga:
Rd 1: UNLV VB
2AC : A2 oil d/a, a2 obama bad, a2 iran backlash, a2 demo k
2AR: a2 case d, and Taiwan arms sales (Obama bad da)

Rd 4: Texas LM
2AC: a2 risk k, a2 data k, a2 anthro k
2AR: I/L turn to anthro, a2 risk

Rd 5:  Oregon
2AC: a2 consult EU, a2  palistine t/o d/a, a2 demo k
2AR: A2 palestine to da, case solves mpw

Kentucky:
Rd2: Harvard LN
2AC: a2 case d, a2 skfta, a2 t increase, a2 military conditions cp, a2 cut all military aid cp
2AR: A2 Skfta, case solves impacts, A2 military conditions cp

Rd 4: USC
2AC: A2 case d, a2 demo bad k
2AR: A2 the k

Rd 6: OU BC
2ac: f/w, a2 whitness k
2AR: a2 whitness k

Rd 7: Mary Washington MM
2AC: A2 Israel elections d/a, A2 skfta, A2 cut military aid cp, A2 Saudi Relations
2AC: A2 case d, Skfta, case solves impacts

UNLV RD 1: CSUF BC
Blackness K 1NC
2AC: F/W, predictions good, realism good, consequences good (whitness/CRT theory wrong)
2AR: Case o/w k turns/perm

UNLV RD 3: Standford KS
1NC: Counterplan, Saudi Arabia Disad, Case turns
2AC: Case solves the disad, Cp solvency deficit

UNLV Rd 5: baylor HN:
1NC: t, china currency, turkey cp, cap k, case d
2AC: answers everything, case solves disad, space impacts turns on cap
2nr: t
2ar: t

~\~\

First, The status quo’s $65 million in party and civil society assistance has only fueled a backlash because it has gone to organizations that favor secular, liberal groups.  These themes of hypocrisy resonate strongly with the Egyptian public
Strasser 7-22
[Max, Cairo-based correspondent, The Nation, “Can USAID Be a Force for Good In Egypt?”, p. http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt wyo-tjc]
Washington’s participation…. receiving foreign funding.

Second, Excluding MB risks future revolution—guarantees any future government lacks legitimacy in eyes of the people.

Hamid 11
[Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at Brookings Doha Center, “Should We Fear the Muslim Brotherhood?”, February 2, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0202_egypt_hamid.aspx, wyo-bb]
In the coming stage…. those we don't like

Third, a civil war in Egypt would collapse the economy—destroys trade, guts oil supply and sparks massive stock sell-offs

LT.com 11
[Laidtrades, staff, “Unrest In Egypt To Rattle The Global Financial Markets”, Jan. 30wyo-tjc]
So what’s all fuss…. in the markets.

Fourth, Economic collapse risks a new world war

Austin 9
[Michael, Resident scholar at AEI, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3.6, p. http://www.aei.org/article/100187 wyo-tjc]
What do these trends …into a big bang. 

 
Fifth, perceptions of favoritism by the United States will destroy American credibility on democracy promotion in the broader Middle East

Masoud 11
[Tarek, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School, Los Angeles times, “U.S. must back democracy in Egypt regardless”, 2.9, p. http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/commentary/us-back-democracy-egypt wyo-tjc]
What Egypt needs now,….. they're asking for.

Sixth, Middle East democratization key to avoid inevitable nuclear war

Muravchik 2001
Joshua, resident scholar @ the American Enterprise Institute.  "Democracy and Nuclear Peace."  Presented before the NPEC/IGCC Summer Faculty Seminar, July 11-14, 2001, University of California-San Diego.  http://www.npec-web.org/Syllabus/Muravchik.pdf
That this momentum … be still more remote.

Seventh, Middle East Democracy key to uproot terrorism—eliminating autocracies is the best way to deprive Al Qaeda of their best recruiting arguments

Byman 11
[Daniel, Professor in the Security Studies Program at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and Research Director at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, “Terrorism After the Revolutions”, June 2011, p. aspwyo-tjc]
Al Qaeda is dangerous not …. abhorrent as secular dictatorship.

Eighth, Truly democratic Egypt key internal to regional stability—if the government lacks popular legitimacy, future revolutions or upheaval is inevitable

Walt 11
[Stephen, professor at Harvard, Foreign Policy, “A realist policy for Egypt”, 1.31, p. http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/31/a_realist_policy_for_egypt wyo-tjc]
That caveat notwithstanding…. like the basest hypocrisy.

And, Middle East war goes nuclear

Steinbach in 2
[John, DC Iraq Coalition, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace,”  http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm, accessed 4/19/04]
Meanwhile, the existence … world conflagration
 
Finally, the US must dispel the perception that it is supporting specific groups and apply democracy assistance for parties and civil societies as evenly as possible

Strasser 7-22
[Max, Cairo-based correspondent, The Nation, “Can USAID Be a Force for Good In Egypt?”, p. http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt wyo-tjc]
Despite the many challenges …. pre-election Egypt.

~\~\

Congress is key

CRS, 08
CRS  Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of U.S. Foreign Policy?, http://web.docuticker.com/go/docubase/23152, accessed 5-19-2011, WYO/JF
Congress appropriates....from the Commission.

Links to politics – all agency action gets tied to Obama 

Nicholas and Hook 10
[ (Peter and Janet, Staff Writers – LA Times, “Obama the Velcro president”, LA Times, 7-30, http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730/3) uwyoamp]
Reporting from Washington.....The buck stops with his office."

~\~\

Evaluate the link specifically to the plan—past failures of democracy assistance don’t doom future efforts

Tara McKelvey 2011
(“The Abandonment of Democracy Promotion,” The International Journal of Not-for-Profit Law Volume 13, Issue 3, June 2011) McKelvey is a correspondent for Newsweek / The Daily Beast and a 2011 Guggenheim fellow. She is the author of Monstering: Inside America’s Policy of Secret Interrogations and Torture in the Terror War.
Meanwhile, on the far right....there for them.

Alternative fails—its attempt to displace the liberalism in democracy risks paralysis

Youngs 11
[Richard Youngs, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, UK, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion”, Working Paper 106 FRIDE, 2011
In practice, what...comprehensive new approaches.21

Democracy assistance is key to introduce peaceful means of intervention—the alternative is justified militaristic violence

Lund 11
[Michael S. Lund, “Human Rights: A Source of Conflict, State Making, and State Breaking”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 7/30/2011, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Lund%20-%20Human%20Rights.pdf]
This more balanced...fulfilling prophecy.

~\~\

Email- jaredfanning05@gmail.com

~(% class="tag" %) ~*~*Domestic situation getting worse for Coptic Christians—increasing attacks—signals failure of the military to sustain transition~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~* ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*Rubin, 10-10-2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Barry, ector of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs, “Egypts Grim Future.” Online, http:~~/~~/dailycaller.com/2011/10/10/egypts-grim-future/] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) Meanwhile....a nightmare. ~(% class="tag" %) ~*~*Egypt on the brink—violence and upheaval possible do to increasing sectarianism~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~* ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*New York Times, 10-12-2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Editorial staff, “Egypt’s failing army.” Online, http:~~/~~/www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/opinion/egypts-failing-army.html?_r=1] /Wyo-MB The killing...for upheaval. ~(% class="cardChar" %) ~(% class="underline" %) ~(% class="cardChar" style="margin-left:0in" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*Unrestrained Islamist power and continuing violent clashes will lead to civil war in Egypt that escalates to large scale war~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~*~*~~ ~*~* ~(% class="cardChar" style="margin-left:0in" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*Sergey and Oksana, 10-15-2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Anisimov and Marunina, Voice of Russia News service, “Egypt after ‘bloody Sunday.” Online, http:~~/~~/english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/15/58792703.html] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) ~(% class="underline" %)Discrimination against....~(%%)large-scale war. ~(% class="cardChar" style="margin-left:0in" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)~*~*Any Middle East war will spread like wildfire, drawing the entire region into conflict. Arab spring movements make regional conflagration extremely likely~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~*~*~~ ~*~* ~(% class="cardChar" style="margin-left:0in" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)~*~*Daily Star, 2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Editorial, “Common Interest.” The Daily Star, 8-20-2011, Online, http:~~/~~/www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion /Editorial/ 2011/Aug - 20/Common-interest.ashx#axzz1VWgdpkEj] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) The incident.... ~(% class="underline" %)would spread ~(% class="tag" %) ~*~*Middle East war goes nuclear~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in" %) ~*~*~~ ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)~*~*Steinbach in 2~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [John, DC Iraq Coalition, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace,” ~[~[~(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:6.0pt" %)~*~*http:~~~~/~~~~/www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm~*~*>>https:~/~/www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm]]~(%%), accessed 4/19/04] ~(% class="card" %) Meanwhile....~(% class="highlight2" style="border: none; border: none" %)world conflagration~(%%)." ~(% class="tag" %) ~*~*Theses new sectarian clashes will tank the transition to democracy~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~* ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*The Guardian, 10-10-2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Editorial Staff, “Egypt: Unfinished Business.” Online, http:~~/~~/www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/10/egypt-clashes-editorial] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) ~(% class="underline" %)The revolutions....left unfinished~(%%). ~(% class="tag" %) D~*~*EMOCRACY NECESSARY TO AVERT NUCLEAR WAR AND EXTINCTION~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Author" style="font-size: 4pt; color: black; " %)~*~* ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)~*~* ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)~*~*CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLI~*~*CT~(%%), “Promoting Democracy in the 1990’s,” October ~(% class="tagChar" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)1995~(%%). Available from the World Wide Web at: ~[~[~(% style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %)http:~~~~/~~~~/www.carnegie.org/sub/pubs/deadly/dia95_01.html>>http:~/~/www.carnegie.org/sub/pubs/deadly/dia95_01.html]]~(%%), accessed 2/20/04. ~(% class="evidencetext" %) ~(% class="Author" style="font-size: 4pt; " %) ~(% style="font-size: 8pt; " %)OTHER THREATS....~(% class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; " %)international security and ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*Transition to democracy necessary to solve civil war and Egypt’s collapse into chaos—now key time Egypt is at the brink~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~* ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri" %)~*~*Al-Rashed, 10-12-2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Abdul, General manager of Al Arabiya, “Egypt: is it five years of chaos?” Online, ~[~[http:~~~~/~~~~/english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/10/12/171386.html>>http:~/~/english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/10/12/171386.html]]] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) ~(% class="underline" %)It is the....~(%%)of treason. ~(% class="tag" %) ~*~*Now key time to engage, younger voices in Muslim Brotherhood make moderation possible, US can use democracy assistance and leverage for reform~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~*~*~~ ~*~* ~(% class="cardChar" style="margin-left:0in" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)~*~*SJ, 2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [Middle East, ~(% style="font-family:~~"Times~~",~~"serif~~"; mso-bidi-font-family:~~"Times New Roman~~"" %)Who are the Brotherhood? By: S. J., Middle East, 03050734, Mar2011, Issue 420, Academic search premier] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) However, those....greater influence. ~(% class="tag" %) ~*~*Brotherhood key group to check against sectarianism and authoritarianism~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~*~*~~ ~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)~*~*Faris and Yadav, 2011~*~* ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) [David and Stacey, assistant professor of political science at Roosevelt University and a strategy group adviser at the Meta-Activism Project. Working in Cairo from 2006 to 2009 and an assistant professor of political science at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, “Why Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood isn't the Islamic bogeyman” C~(% class="updated-short-citation" %)hristian Science Monitor, 08827729, 2/14/2011, accessed online via Ebscohost on 10-22-2011] /Wyo-MB ~(% class="cardChar" %) Before Egyptians....~(% class="underline" %)spoke for freedom~(%%).

~\~\

Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

1AC Status Quo
First, IMET funding being cut now

Josh Rogin, 11
Obama cuts foreign assistance to several countries in new budget request,
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/obama_cuts_foreign_assistance_to_several_countries_in_new_budget_request, accessed 8-17-2011,WYO/JF
The cuts will no….afternoon.
 Second, increased  IMET funding is needed in Egypt

Mattis and Inhofe 11
(General James, Commander, US Central Command and Senator Inhofe, Hearing to Receive Testimony on US Special Operations Command and US central command review of the defense authorization request for fiscal year 2012 and the future years defense program,” Committee on Armed Services, March 1, 2011, http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2011/03%20March/11-05%20-%203-1-11.pdf, accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Yes, I would …..sentiments, Admiral Olson? 

Solvency
First, Increasing the democracy components of IMET key to successful Egyptian democratic transition

Cook, 09
 Senior Fellow at CFR, 09 (Political Instability in Egypt) http://www.cfr.org/egypt/political-instability-egypt/p19696, accessed 11-30-2011, WYO/JF
A different strategy ….presidential elections. 

Second: Egypt will say yes to the US – first, the US has an established previous relationship

Mitchell, 11
Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf )
Close partnership …..Southern threat. 

Third: Doesn’t matter if they say yes, Action of the plan alone sufficient to get credit and restore credibility

Shadi Hamid , 11
(Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) April 2011 “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web,http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php , accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
The revolutions are ……may still fail. 

1AC Hegemony
First: US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region 

Amitai Etzioni, 11
 professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf,accessed,accessed 12-12-2011  WYO/JF
As I will show…U.S. credibility. 

Second: Egypt is key to US Middle East presence- US engagement is key to preserve the alliance- now is the key time to cement US access 

David Wood,11
 writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East”http:www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
Whatever the ….years away, he said. 

Third: The collapse of American power creates arms race and great power wars across multiple theaters 

THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies @ Missouri State) 2007
[Bradley, American Empire: A Debate , P. 108 wyo-tjc]
The fourth ……..and stability.

Fourth: Iran prolif causes wildfire regional prolif- makes nuclear escalation inevitable 

Dr. Shmuel Bar, 11
 is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?”http:www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf , accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
We should …a first strike. 

Fifth: Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it

Herbert London, 10
 is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
Iran is poised ….imperial exhilaration.

Sixth: Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework 

James A. Russell, 09
(managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
The strategic …..posture and interests. 

Sixth: Middle East Prolif risks global nuclear war

Cirincione 7
[Joseph and Andrew Grotto, Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage: A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran,” March 2007. Available from the World Wide Web at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/iran_report.html]
Regardless…for nuclear war.

Seventh: Hegemony Controls escalation of all conflicts – collapse causes global wars and protectionism

Yuhan Zhang , 11
(a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.) and Lin Shi (Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C.) January 2011 “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”http:www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
However…unrivalled US primacy. 

Ninth: IMET solves anti- Americanism 

Thomas C. Bruneau, 08
 et al Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School Kathleen Peggar the Global Center for Security Cooperation (GCSC) EUCOM Liaison Officer Elisabeth Wright program manager for the International Defense Acquisition Resource Management program in the School of International Graduate Studies, Naval Postgraduate School 2007-2008 Center for Civil – Military Relations Naval Postgraduate School “IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION (IMET) ON GRADUATE EDUCATION”
The final key …..society and government.  

Tenth: U.S. E-IMET is key to U.S. engagement strategy

JAMES BODNER, 00
PRINCIPAL DEPUTY UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR POLICY TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTE, accessed 8-17-2011,WYO/JF
Under the Expanded … democratic societies. 

1AC U.S. SCAF Relations
First: US-SCAF relations are on the brink of collapse.

Schenker 9-15
(David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715 , accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Washington used ….be in jeopardy. 

Second: Egypt CMR reform sustains US-SCAF cooperation.

Mitchell and Nelson 11
 (Daniel D. Mitchell and Michael D. Nelson, "ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS  IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT   SPECIAL OPERATIONS," June, NAVAL  POSTGRADUATE  SCHOOL, http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf , accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
While the ….from aggression.  

US-SCAF Cooperation’s Good 

Third: U.S. – Egyptian relations solve terrorism, Middle Eastern stability, access to oil, and war with Israel

CFR, 02
(Council on Foreign Relations, May, “Strengthening the U.S.-Egyptian Relationship” http://www.cfr.org/egypt/strengthening-us-egyptian-relationship-cfr-paper/p8666 )accessed 8-24-2011,WYO/JF
The U.S.-Egyptian ….Middle East. 

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Morgan 9
 Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus – South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct), accessed 9-16-2011,WYO/JF
In a remarkable website …a nuclear winter.    

Fifth: Breakdown of Egypt-Israel peace causes extinction

Konstantinov 11
(Mihail, Full Professor in Mathematics with the University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy (UACEG), Bulgaria, “Nuclear Middle East”, 2-12-11, http://www.europost.bg/article?id=1005 , accessed  9-18-2011,WYO/JF
But can¬cel¬ing…glob¬al mar¬kets.  

Sixth: The plan salvages our relationship with Egypt

Moss, 11
Mon, 2011-02-28 18:08 | Foreign Policy | Lorianne Woodrow Moss BA in International Relations from the George Washington University and an MA in International Relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). http://americanactionforum.org/content/americas-role-during-arab-spring , accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Some of our ….. we can make. 

First: Further Egyptian downgrades and economic collapse are inevitable if turmoil in Egypt continues

Saleh, 10-19-2011
[Heba, Financial Times, “Egypt: Downgraded.” Online, http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/10/19/egypt-downgraded/#axzz1bGYfCRjo] /Wyo-MB
Standard & Poor’s ....pressure,” he said.    

Second: Egypt’s economy is key to global economic recovery

Schuman 11
is Director of Research and Public Policy at the Business Alliance for Local Living Economies (BALLE). (Michael, TIME Magazine, 2/2, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?”  http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d )accessed 8-25-2011,WYO/JF
At first glance, the upheaval on....unwelcome surprise.

Third: Economic recovery key to prevent nuclear World War III

O'Donnell 9
(Sean, writer and Marine Corps Reserve squad leader, Feb 26, http://www.examiner.com/x- 3108-Baltimore-Republican- Examinery2009m2d26-Will-this- recession-lead-to-World-War- III), accessed 8-25-2011,WYO/JF
Could the current....history repeats itself.

Fourth: Increasing military education in Egypt is key to attract foreign direct investment. 

Henry and Springborg 11
(Clement professor of government and middle east studies at the University of Texas at Autstin, and Robert, professor of national security affairs at the naval post graduate school and program manager for the middle east at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military,” Foreign Affairs Online, February 21, 2011, ) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67475/clement-m-henry-and-robert-springborg/a-tunisian-solution-for-egypts-military?page=2, accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
But Egypt faces...movement: “Tunisia is the solution.” 

Fifth: Military aid provided by the plan key to save the economy 

Korski 11
(Daniel, European Council on Foreign Relations, “Without Mlitary Reform Egypt cannot democratize,” 7-5, )
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/07/08/without_military_reform_egypt_cant_democratize_99584-2.html, accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Military reforms....kleptocracy of Military Inc. 

US key affect Egypt military- unique leverage 

James Kitfield,  11
 has written on defense, national security and foreign policy issues from Washington, D.C. for over two decades 2/12/2011 The National Interest “Ghosts of the 'Arab Spring' “ EBSCO ", accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
 "Arab regimes....times of crisis. 

Egyptians reject their model 

Maggie Michael, 11
 The Associated Press 9-13-2011 Atlanta Journal Constitution “Erdogan presents Turkey as model for Arabs” http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/erdogan-presents-turkey-as-1178439.html, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF  
Prime Minister....Turkish-style secularism. 

Doesn’t solve CMR all their generals just quit 

Scott Peterson,11
 Staff writer / July 29, 2011  Christian Science Monitor “Turkey's top generals resign in apparent rift with Erdogan government” http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0729/Turkey-s-top-generals-resign-in-apparent-rift-with-Erdogan-government, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
Turkey's top four....temporarily leaderless. 

Interpretation: The negative should be limited to one act of fiat over the United State federal Government.  
Reasons to Prefer:
(_)Ground: Provides the most stable ground for debate.  There are 193 countries that the neg can choose from.
(_)Limits: Provides the best limits for debate by giving predictable ground for both sides.
(_)Jurisdiction: Real world policy makers only have power to implement policies within their jurisdiction, international rest outside of that.
(_)Voter: reject the counterplan.

() Turkey influencing the region leads to Iran backlash. 

Day Press News, 10-10
( Iran warns Turkey over Arab World, 10-10-11 Day Press News.  ( DP-News – the national )http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=99341//uwyokb)
The key military ....goals of America". 

(_) Conditioning military aid fails—hurts US-Egyptian relations, transition to democracy, and peace treaty with Israel

Sheridan, 9-29-2011
[Mary Beth, Wasthington post, “Egypt warns U.S. on attaching conditions to military aid.” Online, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/egypt-warns-us-on-attaching-conditions-to-military-aid/2011/09/29/gIQAhX3K8K_story.html] /Wyo-MB
Egyptian Foreign .....the Egyptian official said. 

()links to politics –powerful lobby’s oppose the counterplan  

Boston Globe 11
(2/3, Critics question billions in aid routed back to US contractors, http:~/~/articles.boston.com/2011-02-03/news/29340241_1_military-aid-foreign-aid-civilian-aid/2, accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Shifting away...people,’’ Allison said. 

Interpretation: condition counterplans are illegitimate
() limits- infinite amount of conditions
() fairness- get to garner offense from the process of conditioning
() Err aff on theory questions, democracy assistance is bad mechanism
() Voter for fairness and a reason to reject the counterplan 

()The military says no to avoid perceptions that the US dictates policy – only training can solve

CSM 11
2/3, US-Egyptian military ties: How much leverage does the Pentagon have?, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2011/0203/US-Egyptian-military-ties-How-much-leverage-does-the-Pentagon-have  ), accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
At the Pentagon....Cordesman says. 

They say heg unsustainable:
First, even with their best case, hegemony will sustain itself for decades to come—any shifts will be slow

Brooks and Wohlforth 2008
[Stephen G. Brooks, Assistant Professor, Department of Government, Dartmouth College, William C. Wohlforth, Daniel Webster Professor of Government,  World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy, uwyo/amp]
Our review.....The next section explains why.

Second, the status quo is not an option—embracing the ‘inevitable’ entails global violence and nuclear war

BRZEZINSKI (Former Sect. Of State) 2004
[Zbigniew, The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership, Perseus, New York  wyo-tjc]
In any case....of mass destruction. 

Short-term withdraw causes destroys stability in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan—better to hold on as long as possible

MacDonald 9
[Paul, doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science, Columbia University, Daedalus, “Rebalancing American foreign policy”, 2009, p. asp]
If the United States...of common interest.

And, Indo-Pak war causes extinction
Washington Times 1
July 8, LN.
The most dangerous.....Material/Cut-off Convention.

And, Central Asian instability goes nuclear

Shorr 1
Ian. Analyst with the Institute for Policy Studies. 10/14/1. The Record. Lexis.
While these actions....use of nuclear weapons. 

And hegemony produces global stability necessary for civilization:
Collapse causes a new dark age—overpopulation, disease, bio-weapons

Starobin 6
[Paul, editior of National Journal, The National Journal, “Beyond Hegemony”, 12.2.2006, p. lexis]
The grimmest possibility ....biological, or nuclear weapons.

And, Diseases lead to extinction
Fox 97
C. William. Lieutenant COLONEL. 6/24/97. http://se1.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=ISN&fileid=4341F68C-1AF1-FEB7-10D7-5EE127216D05&lng=en.
HIV is a pandemic ....mass destruction. 

Offshore balancing fails- onshore presence is the only way to give commitments credibility.  Leadership would evaporate

Gray 9
[Colin S., PhD, Strategic Studies Institute, “After Iraq: The Search for a Sustainable National Security Strategy”, Jan. 2009, p. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=902, accessed 6.20.2010]
The United States.....great "commons."

And OSB can’t solve any of their backlash or counterbalancing arguments—US will always be threatening and transitioning to OSB telegraphs weakness

THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies @ Missouri State) 2007
[Bradley, American Empire: A Debate , P. 105-6 wyo-tjc]
Second, U.S....the United States itself

Onshore presence is vital to give credibility to our commitments—military presence is crucial

Gray 9
[Colin S., PhD, Strategic Studies Institute, “After Iraq: The Search for a Sustainable National Security Strategy”, Jan. 2009, p. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=902, accessed 6.20.2010]
Third, the United....applies it.

Second, it is a reason to vote affirmative because OSB can only risk telegraphing lack of US resolve, making inevitable counter-balancing efforts more likely to target the United States

THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies @ Missouri State) 2007
[Bradley, American Empire: A Debate , P. 116-7 wyo-tjc]
There is no .....Japan and Turkey.

WITHDRAWAL TO OFFSHORE BALANCING RISKS INSTABILITY THAT DESTROYS THE ECONOMY

THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies at Missouri State) 2006
[Bradley, “In Defense of Primacy”, National Interest, Dec, p. asp wyo-tjc]
A GRAND strategy....by offshore balancing.

EXTINCTION

BEARDEN (Lt. Col in US Army) 2000
[Thomas, “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis”, Free Republic, June 24, p. online wyo-tjc]
History bears....many decades.

OSB triggers proliferation and arms racing

THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies @ Missouri State) 2007
[Bradley, American Empire: A Debate , P. 109 wyo-tjc]
It is important ....United States to solve it.

() We meet IMET is democracy assistance. Their interpretation is about IMET as a whole, not what plan does.  We only give aid to the democracy portions of IMET.  That’s plan in a vacuum. 

()Counter Interpretation- Democracy Assistance includes assistance given by the DOD through IMET

Carothers 2k
[Thomas, CEIP, American Democracy Promotion: Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts, p. 188-191wyo-tjc]
The Department.....police reform.

() We meet IMET is a civil control program

Bruneau & Trinkunas 6 (Thomas & Harold – Naval Postgrad School, Asst Profs, “Democratization as a Global Phenomenon and its Impact on Civil-Military Relations”, Democratization, 13(5), muse)
By contrast.....armed forces. 

() We meet Military is key to democracy assistance

Mitchell and Phillips ‘8
Lincoln A., and David L., The National Committee on American Foreign Policy. “Enhancing Democracy Assist ance.” The Atlantic Council 2008
http://acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, accessed 1-5-2012
Iraq will....outcomes be lost.

() Sequencing: Even if you do not buy that IMET is democracy assistance, you will buy that the goals between d.a. and security assistance are intertwined across sectors

Goldstone et al 2008  
- Committee on the Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs (Jack A. goldstone (Chair), George Mason University, Fairfax, VA Larry garber, New Israel Fund, Washington, DC John gerring, Boston University, Boston, MA Clark C. gibson, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA Mitchell A. Seligson, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN Jeremy Weinstein, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, Jo L. Husbands, Senior Project Director Paul Stern, Board Director Tabitha Benney, Senior Program Associate* Rita guenther, Senior Program Associate ,Improving Democracy Assistance National Academies Press, p.30-1), accessed 2-5-2012,WYO/JF
For example....circumstances. 

() Prefer our interpretation:
() It’s Reasonable: Provides the best definition of the categories of democracy assistance.
()  Guarantees neg uniqueness—offering aid to a military program would be controversial.  
() Their interpretation is unsustainable: the number of viable affs will exhaust itself if they stop any aff that increases aid to police, or military to military contact.  It also destroys aff flexibility by creating an artificial constraint that isn’t in the literature which destroys education.
()Competing interpretations is bad—comparisons are just as subjective as reasonability and their frame encourages a race to the bottom.  We shouldn’t lose if our aff makes debate harder as long as it is still possible and educational.