Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.
1AC Status Quo
First, IMET funding being cut now
Josh Rogin, 11
Obama cuts foreign assistance to several countries in new budget request,
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/obama_cuts_foreign_assistance_to_several_countries_in_new_budget_request, accessed 8-17-2011,WYO/JF
The cuts will no….afternoon.
Second, increased IMET funding is needed in Egypt
Mattis and Inhofe 11
(General James, Commander, US Central Command and Senator Inhofe, Hearing to Receive Testimony on US Special Operations Command and US central command review of the defense authorization request for fiscal year 2012 and the future years defense program,” Committee on Armed Services, March 1, 2011, http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2011/03%20March/11-05%20-%203-1-11.pdf, accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Yes, I would …..sentiments, Admiral Olson?
Solvency
First, Increasing the democracy components of IMET key to successful Egyptian democratic transition
Cook, 09
Senior Fellow at CFR, 09 (Political Instability in Egypt) http://www.cfr.org/egypt/political-instability-egypt/p19696, accessed 11-30-2011, WYO/JF
A different strategy ….presidential elections.
Second: Egypt will say yes to the US – first, the US has an established previous relationship
Mitchell, 11
Naval Postgraduate School, 11 (June, ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT SPECIAL OPERATIONS, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf )
Close partnership …..Southern threat.
Third: Doesn’t matter if they say yes, Action of the plan alone sufficient to get credit and restore credibility
Shadi Hamid , 11
(Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) April 2011 “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web,http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php , accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
The revolutions are ……may still fail.
1AC Hegemony
First: US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region
Amitai Etzioni, 11
professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf,accessed,accessed 12-12-2011 WYO/JF
As I will show…U.S. credibility.
Second: Egypt is key to US Middle East presence- US engagement is key to preserve the alliance- now is the key time to cement US access
David Wood,11
writes about war for Politics Daily. In 30 years of covering conflict, he has filed dispatches from dozens of battlefields 02/5/11 Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East”http:www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
Whatever the ….years away, he said.
Third: The collapse of American power creates arms race and great power wars across multiple theaters
THAYER (Professor of Strategic Studies @ Missouri State) 2007
[Bradley, American Empire: A Debate , P. 108 wyo-tjc]
The fourth ……..and stability.
Fourth: Iran prolif causes wildfire regional prolif- makes nuclear escalation inevitable
Dr. Shmuel Bar, 11
is Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others Strategic Perspectives Number 7 2011 “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?”http:www.jcpa.org/text/cold_war_deterrence_nuclear_iran.pdf , accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
We should …a first strike.
Fifth: Iran regional dominance causes nuclear war- US engagement key to prevent it
Herbert London, 10
is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University June 23, 2010 “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East” Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
Iran is poised ….imperial exhilaration.
Sixth: Middle East wars are most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell, 09
(managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
The strategic …..posture and interests.
Sixth: Middle East Prolif risks global nuclear war
Cirincione 7
[Joseph and Andrew Grotto, Center for American Progress, “Contain and Engage: A New Strategy for Resolving the Nuclear Crisis with Iran,” March 2007. Available from the World Wide Web at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/02/iran_report.html]
Regardless…for nuclear war.
Seventh: Hegemony Controls escalation of all conflicts – collapse causes global wars and protectionism
Yuhan Zhang , 11
(a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.) and Lin Shi (Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C.) January 2011 “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”http:www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, accessed 12-12-2011,WYO/JF
However…unrivalled US primacy.
Ninth: IMET solves anti- Americanism
Thomas C. Bruneau, 08
et al Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School Kathleen Peggar the Global Center for Security Cooperation (GCSC) EUCOM Liaison Officer Elisabeth Wright program manager for the International Defense Acquisition Resource Management program in the School of International Graduate Studies, Naval Postgraduate School 2007-2008 Center for Civil – Military Relations Naval Postgraduate School “IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION (IMET) ON GRADUATE EDUCATION”
The final key …..society and government.
Tenth: U.S. E-IMET is key to U.S. engagement strategy
JAMES BODNER, 00
PRINCIPAL DEPUTY UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR POLICY TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS SUBCOMMITTE, accessed 8-17-2011,WYO/JF
Under the Expanded … democratic societies.
1AC U.S. SCAF Relations
First: US-SCAF relations are on the brink of collapse.
Schenker 9-15
(David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715 , accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Washington used ….be in jeopardy.
Second: Egypt CMR reform sustains US-SCAF cooperation.
Mitchell and Nelson 11
(Daniel D. Mitchell and Michael D. Nelson, "ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT SPECIAL OPERATIONS," June, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf , accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
While the ….from aggression.
US-SCAF Cooperation’s Good
Third: U.S. – Egyptian relations solve terrorism, Middle Eastern stability, access to oil, and war with Israel
CFR, 02
(Council on Foreign Relations, May, “Strengthening the U.S.-Egyptian Relationship” http://www.cfr.org/egypt/strengthening-us-egyptian-relationship-cfr-paper/p8666 )accessed 8-24-2011,WYO/JF
The U.S.-Egyptian ….Middle East.
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Morgan 9
Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus – South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct), accessed 9-16-2011,WYO/JF
In a remarkable website …a nuclear winter.
Fifth: Breakdown of Egypt-Israel peace causes extinction
Konstantinov 11
(Mihail, Full Professor in Mathematics with the University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy (UACEG), Bulgaria, “Nuclear Middle East”, 2-12-11, http://www.europost.bg/article?id=1005 , accessed 9-18-2011,WYO/JF
But can¬cel¬ing…glob¬al mar¬kets.
Sixth: The plan salvages our relationship with Egypt
Moss, 11
Mon, 2011-02-28 18:08 | Foreign Policy | Lorianne Woodrow Moss BA in International Relations from the George Washington University and an MA in International Relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). http://americanactionforum.org/content/americas-role-during-arab-spring , accessed 12-13-2011,WYO/JF
Some of our ….. we can make.
