###1AC Plan###

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered political parties in Egypt..

###1AC Democracy Advantage###

Egypt’s elections will be one-sided now – support for a multi-party system is key to democratic transition

Max Strasser, 8/10/11, Foreign Policy, "Cairo's … have stability with weak foundations."

Elections assistance will prevent the Muslim Brotherhood dominating and have a moderating effect

Trager ‘11

[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's … Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing parties fails.

Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority … be a good way to start.

Groups will accept the aid

Gamal Essam El-Din, 8/5/11, Ahram Online, "… seen in its modern history.”

Aid opposition is only inevitable without the plan

John Esposito, 9/18/11, The Guardian, "The west has a chance to create a new narrative with the Arab world," http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/18/west-new-narrative-arab-world

The current transformation in the … intervention, invasion, occupation and dependency.

More funding to party building is critical – US engagement boosts expectations 

Schenker 11(David Schenker is the … , for a transition to a democratic system.

US assistance key to democratic transition – spills over to the region and helps overcome anti-Americanism

Kagan& Dunne 11(Robert, Senior Fellow, … if we blow this opportunity.

Egypt is the most important Arab Spring country

Dworkin, et al 10 Anthony, Daniel … for other Middle Eastern governments.

Middle Eastern democracy will eliminate support for Al Qaeda

Daniel Byman, Professor in the … peacefully against their authoritarian rulers.

Al-Qaeda is a unique threat – they seek to acquire nuclear weapons

Cleveland et al, 08.

Allison, Graham, Robin Cleveland, Bob Graham, Steve Rademaker, Tim Roemer, Wendy Sherman, Henry Sokolski, Jim Talent, and Rich Verma. 2008. World at Risk: The Report on the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism. New York: Vintage Books.

At the moment, al Qaeda … and materials at their source.

Extinction

Sid-Ahmed ‘4

(Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)

A nuclear attack by terroristswill … , we will all be losers.

Causes a global nuclear war

Jerome Corsi, 4/20/05, "Horrific Scenario: NTY … still capable of exacting revenge.

###1AC Credibility Advantage###

Military drawdowns wreck credibility – democracy assistance shows commitment to the region

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International … in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

ShadiHamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of … address but failed to deliver on.

A credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability & regional nuclear acquisitions

McInnis2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the MiddleEast, … region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

Iranian nuclearization is inevitable – only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war

Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006[“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]

The manner in which Iran … allow such chaos to reign.

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction

Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers

SAN FRANCISCO -- With superpower nuclear … history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

The plan immediately reverses negative … the rest of his term.

Obama’s credibility -- presidential consistency is … Obama’s Dithering”, Los Angeles Times, 10-18,

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18)

Weakness in American … simply embodies weakness and indecision.

Obama’s weakness causes global instability – … it will bite or when.

Indo/Pak conflict escalates quickly – nuclear winter

Robock 10 (Alan, Professor of Climatology – … and Associate Director – Center for

Environmental Prediction “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January,

 http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf)

Abolition: The Only Policy People … the potential to erupt suddenly.

China/India conflict escalates into global great power conflict

Darling 10 (Daniel, International Military Markets … a place to start as any.

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility

David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of … region as a whole depends on it.

Survival comes first.

Schell, 2000 (Jonathan, The Fate of … of something larger than he is.

Ethics require calculative thought.

Thurschwell, assoc prof law @ Cleveland … that genuine justice demands. n25 

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China will cut oil consumption

Xinhua 9-7 (“China Outlines Targets in Energy Use Reduction”, 2011,  http://english.cri.cn/6909/2011/09/07/189s657269.htm)

China said on Wednesday that it aims to cut energy consumption per 10,000 yuan (1,563 U.S. dollars) of gross domestic product (GDP) by 16 percent in 2015 from the level last year.

Energy use per 10,000 yuan GDP … energy use by 2015, it added.

The plan also said the government will step up reform of resource taxation, and collect taxes from oil, gas and coal according to price instead of volume while increasing the tax rate.

Tanks prices more than the plan

Hauke 7 (Justin P., Former Research Analyst – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “Asian Nations Driving World Oil Prices”, The Regional Economist, April, http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/articles/?id=37)

Oil might not make the … leads to higher prices today.

Price collapse impossible - high prices are structurally set - and there’s no impact to a small drop

Lewis 11 (Barbara, London-Based, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/08/05/idINIndia-58642220110805 (Reuters)

Oil prices in London would … Saudi budget," Bernstein Research said.

Global renewables are tanking

Victor 11 (David G., Professor of International Relations – University of California, San Diego, “The Crisis in Clean Energy”, Foreign Affairs, July / August, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67903/david-g-victor-and-kassia-yanosek/the-crisis-in-clean-energy)

After years of staggering growth, … the investment focuses on innovation.

Warming’s inevitable

NPR 9 (National Public Radio, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=99888903)

Climate change is essentially irreversible, … sea level rise and drought.

Prices rising now

Bob Wing, 5/1/11, Organizing Upgrade, "The arab spring and the changing dynamics of global struggle," http://www.organizingupgrade.com/2011/05/arab-spring-changing-global-struggle/

While primarily local democratic uprisings, … and readily accessible petroleum—forever.”

Arab spring won’t impact oil

Joe Weisenthal, 8/4/11, "Oil plunges, as the 'arab spring' rally is officially erased," http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-plunges-as-the-arab-spring-rally-is-officially-erased-2011-8

One other interesting market observation … really started roaring) is over.

Even sudden shocks don’t disrupt growth.

Economist 2007  (“Shocktreatment” November 15th 2007 http://… importance of oil (see charts).

Decline doesn’t cause war

Ferguson 2006 (Oct 6, 06 Foreign Affairs, Niall, … were not followed by wars.

Perm – Do Both

The CP doesn’t solve the aff:

A.    Can’t solve democracy – EU democracy assistance fails

Youngs, 6 (October, Richard, director of … -rooted reformers on the ground.

Extend the Schenker evidence – U.S. key because of experienced NGO’s and presence of the U.S. specifically motivates the Egyptians.

2. Can’t solve credibility – U.S. action is critical

C.    No coop - Agricultural disputes

Daniel Korski and Mark Leonard, 8/2/11, … defused before it becomes unfixable.

If Egypt opposes the aid the CP can’t solve – Egypt can veto European aid

Youngs, 6 (October, Richard, director of … the Fundación para las Relaciones

Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) in Madrid, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Europe’s flawed approach to Arab democracy,” Centre for European Reform, http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/essay_youngs_arab_democracy.pdf, atw)

The EU has increased its … agreed with Middle E a s t e rn governments.

Can’t say no to the U.S.

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

Moreover, the $65 million democracy assistance … of State for International Cooperation.

Uniqueness overwhelms – Boehner totally opposed

People’s Daily, 11-1, 11, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7632067.html

Speaker …issue.

NU – trade conflict now

Forbes, 11-1, 11, …

Last e Chinese.

Last Wednesday, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative …  reported.

No evidence of even a vote by the end of the year

Marketwatch, 9-27/11, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-tees-up-vote-on-china-currency-bill-2011-09-27?link=MW_latest_news

“This strong bipartisan …that would happen.

Lots of looming fights between the Congress and Obama-Solyndra, Taiwan arms sale, and Iraq withdraw testimony

The Hill 11/11 (A Closer Look at … that withdrawal will leave Iraq

Democracy assistance to Egypt was already appropriated in the FY12 budget – no debate over it

McInerney 11(Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations

for Fiscal Year 2012,” July 2011, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

The Middle East and North … and its reversal is welcome.

Limited engagement triggers the link

Rubin 11 (Barry, Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and Editor – Middle East Review, “A Major U.S. Policy Shift Toward the Muslim Brotherhood Disguised”, Rubin Reports, 6-30, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/30/us-policy-shift-toward-the-muslim-brotherhood/)

We are supposed to believe … with the Brotherhood, even tentatively.

Our interpretation of fiat is that the plan passes with a 51-49 vote in the senate

General links don’t apply - “assistance” is under the political radar

Bader 10 (Max, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer – Geschwister School Institute for Political Science, Against All Odds. Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine, p. 25)

Being not as visible and … the inclusion in party internationals.

Action on Egypt is bipart

Negrin 11

(Matt, staff writer for Politico, “Biden: 'Pivotal moment' in Egypt”, 2-11-11, http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0211/vp_speaks_first_73cc39c5-5ffb-4c3a-88a0-e458fcf3bf1a.html)

"It’s a pivotal moment, not … delicate and fateful days ahead."

Extend the Lane in 11 card from the 1AC- the plan means Obama fulfills a major campaign promise, the rewards on Egypt would outweigh any previous mistakes. Republicans will do what he says. The plan is a win.

Winners Win

Green 6-11-10 [professor of political science … is precisely what they did.

The turnaround is Immediate

Mike Dorning, Bloomberg, 1/3/2011.  “Obama Studies … -agenda-through-hostile-congress.html

While many House Democrats criticized … going into the new Congress.”

Winners win- Obama can spin political situations to gain PC

Jonah Goldberg (commentator for an A.M. …  

As someone who supported a Libyan no-… least in the short term.

Bipartisan support exists for the plan and Kerry pushes it

Emily Cadei, 3/3/11, Congress.org, "Democracy funding may be squeezed," http://origin-www.congress.org/news/2011/03/03/democracy_funding_may_be_squeezed

At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee … Egypt, Tunisia and, potentially, Libya.

Democracy assistance bipartisan

Phillips 8 (Director of National Committee on American Foreign Policy, and Mitchell, International Politics Prof at Columbia, ‘8, David and Lincoln, May, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance” American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol 30 Issue 3, p 156-175, InformaWorld)

Democracy assistance has typically enjoyed … to candidates in the 2008 election.

Aid now disproves the link. We already gave $65 million in assistance, and there was no backlash in Congress.

Public disapproval tanked Obama’s PC

Patrick Kiely, 9/5/11, Journal Gazette, "Labor Day: The state of the union," http://www.journalgazette.net/article/2011309059996

The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential … capital to near junk status.

Won’t escalate – threats instead of bombs

O’Hanlon ‘5 (Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow … kill large numbers of civilians.

Your authors ignore the differences between conflicts with China. Competition is inevitable but pragmatic relationship on both sides prevents your spill over arguments.

Balla 8/30/09 (Steven. The Examiner. “China: Q&A … poison bilateral relations as a whole.

US-China conflict won’t go nuclear

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pennsylvania) September 9/29, 2004

U.S. … are definitely not into terrorism.

Trade does not solve war—there’s no correlation between trade and peace

MARTIN, MAYER, AND THOENIG 2008 (Phillipe, … the number of sovereign states.

Egypt would say no – popular aversion

David Schenker, 9/15/11, The Weekly Standard, "Washington's limited influence in Egypt," http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html

The government is also hostile … Egyptians oppose accepting U.S. economic assistance.    

Pressuring Egypt risks crushing our credibility

Jeff Martini and Julie Taylor, September/October 2011, Foreign Affairs, "Commanding Democracy in Egypt." http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68218/jeff-martini-and-julie-taylor/commanding-democracy-in-egypt

Such tactics, of course, are … cooperation between the two countries.

SQ solves Egyptian corruption

Voice Of America 7-21

(“Egypt’s PM Promises Reform as New Cabinet Sworn In”, 2011, accessed online http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/07/21/egypts-pm-promises-reform-as-new-cabinet-sworn-in/)

Egypt's prime minister has promised … to help the ruling party.