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Plan:
The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered nonviolent political parties in Egypt.

Advantage 1 - Democracy

The Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections now - Elections assistance will prevent them from dominating and have a moderating effect
Trager ‘11
[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the
AND
the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing fails
Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt," http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=42766
As the U.S. government assesses
AND
exclusion would be a good way to start. 

Even if some Egyptians were upset about past assistance that does not prevent the plan from solving.
Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

In March, USAID in Egypt placed advertisements
AND
of the elections, the Egyptian people does." 

More funding to party building organizations is critical – these groups are proven to succeed and US engagement will energize Egyptian expectations.
Schenker 11 (David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense April 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf )
As with the revolution, Egyptians will be
AND
, for a transition to a democratic system.

US assistance key to facilitate democratic transition in Egypt –spills over to the region and helps overcome anti-Americanism
Kagan & Dunne 11 (Robert, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe AND Michele, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Why Egypt Has to be the U.S. Priority in the Middle East, March 7, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0307_egypt_kagan.aspx, MCL)
With the horrific carnage in Libya, the
AND
not be kind if we blow this opportunity.

Middle Eastern democracy will eliminate support for Al Qaeda
Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and Research Director at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Terrorism After the Revolutions. Affairs, 00157120, May/Jun 2011, Vol. 90, p. 33
Al Qaeda is dangerous not only because it
AND
countries and marching peacefully against their authoritarian rulers. 

Al-Queda Still strong and a nuclear threat
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza 9-9, 2011
http://www.eurasiareview.com/08092011-al-qaeda-a-decade-after-the-911-attacks-analysis/
Firstly, Al Qaeda’s core leadership and structure
AND
individuals may well return to the US undetected. 

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Morgan 9 – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus – South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)
In a remarkable website on nuclear war,
AND
unimaginable misery and suffering in a nuclear winter.

Egyptian democracy is key to the establishment of Desertec solar fields
Allison Kilian, 5/26/11, Spiegel Online, "Arab Spring boosts dream of desert power," http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,764877,00.html
The images projected on the wall of the
AND
the foundations for long-term economic development. 

Desertech is key to meeting Europe’s enegy needs
Allison Kilian, 5/26/11, Spiegel Online, "Arab Spring boosts dream of desert power," http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,764877,00.html
The Desertec project first got energy experts and
AND
providing at least 15 percent of Europe's electricity. 

European dependence on Russia causes Russian imperialism
Blank 2007 (Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, Russian Democracy, Revisited” Spring 2007, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php)
Gvosdev defends his brand of realism as a
AND
, Russia “craves status, not responsibility.”

Global nuclear war
Ariel Cohen, 1-25-97, Ph.D, Senior Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation Reports,
Much is at stake in Eurasia  for the
AND
the benefit of both Western and local economies.

Advantage 2 - Credibility
American credibility in the Middle East will collapse by the end of 2011 due to military drawdowns. Democracy assistance is key to maintaining credibility.
Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan," http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb137/is_2_33/ai_n57856889/?tag=mantle_skin;content

The year 2011 began with momentous changes across
AND
of Iran's position in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region
Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#
The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia  
AND
2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on. 

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility
David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of the policy
AND
the region as a whole depends on it.

Political credibility is key to security guarantees
McInnis 2005
[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and
AND
and decided to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions
McInnis 2005
[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle
AND
the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation. 

In 2010, Iran was only a few years from a bomb
Peter Brookes, Fall/Winter 2010, The Journal of International Security Affairs, "The Post-Iran Proliferation Cascade," http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2010/19/brookes.php

With the exception of a handful of capitals
AND
–the levels needed for a nuclear weapon. 

Due to the Arab Spring, those efforts have only accelerated
Sallai Meridor, 9/7/11, Washington Post, "As Arab Spring unfolds, who is watching Iran?" http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20110907a4.html

While everyone is watching events unfold in Libya
AND
clout than the possession of a nuclear bomb?

Only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war
Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006 [“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]
The manner in which Iran emerges as a
AND
interest not to allow such chaos to reign. 

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction
Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers
SAN FRANCISCO  With superpower nuclear arsenals plummeting
AND
in recent history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

The 1AC is the same as the GSU aff except for one new card: 

=Terrorism Advantage=

(Replaces the Byman evidence on the Democracy Advantage)

Successful democracy key to kill support for al Qaeda
Paul Cruickshank and Tim Lister. Sept. 12th, 2011. “Al Qaeda 2.0: What the next 10 years will bring.” http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/12/al-qaeda-2-0-what-the-next-10-years-will-bring/.
Most counter-terrorism analysts agree that [
AND
just a couple of steps up that ladder.

Plan:

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered nonviolent political parties in Egypt.

Advantage 1 - Democracy

The Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections now - Elections assistance will prevent them from dominating and have a moderating effect

Trager ‘11

[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the

AND

the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing fails

Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt," http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=42766

As the U.S. government assesses

AND

exclusion would be a good way to start.

Even if some Egyptians were upset about past assistance that does not prevent the plan from solving.

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

In March, USAID in Egypt placed advertisements

AND

of the elections, the Egyptian people does."

More funding to party building organizations is critical – these groups are proven to succeed and US engagement will energize Egyptian expectations.

Schenker 11 (David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense April 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf )

As with the revolution, Egyptians will be

AND

, for a transition to a democratic system.

The transition will fail without political party support – this collapses relations with Israel and makes regional instability inevitable

Alon Ben-Meir, 9/19/11, Huffington Post, "Is this what the revolution was all about?" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/is-this-what-the-revoluti_b_970073.html

The great promises of the Egyptian revolution appear

AND

the people of Egypt and the entire region.

Egyptian Instability spreads to multiple flashpoints for war and crushes the global economy

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days

AND

armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Independently, an Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Eben Harrell, writer.  TIME, “Regional Nuclear War and the Environment.”  1/22/2009.  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1873164,00.html

In the 1980s, climate scientists in Russia

AND

produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.

Economic collapse leads to global war.

Lind, New America Foundation Economic Growth Program Policy Director, 5/11/2010

[Michael, "Will the great recession lead to World War IV?," http://www.salon.com/news/economics/index.html?story=/opinion/feature/2010/05/11/great_recession_world_war_iv]

If history is any guide, an era

AND

in 1984 is all too easy to imagine.

A collapse of Egyptian-Israeli causes war and an Israeli lashout

Kyle Brady, August 2011, PolicyMic, "A dangerous time for egypt and israel," http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1426

Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors

AND

given, more so now than ever before.

An Israeli lashout causes extinction.

Al-Jazeerah, March 2010, "Israel could to wipe out Europe with nuclear weapons and expel all Palestinians, says Israeli military historian MartinKarfeld,"http://www.aljazeerah.info/News/2010/March/11%20n/Israel%20could%20to%20wipe%20out%20Europe%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20and%20expel%20all%20Palestinians,%20says%20Israeli%20military%20historian%20Martin%20Karfeld.htm

Noted Israeli military historian Martin Karfeld stated that

AND

felt its existence would be doomed to extinction.

Advantage 2 - Credibility

American credibility in the Middle East will collapse by the end of 2011 due to military drawdowns. Democracy assistance is key to maintaining credibility.

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan," http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb137/is_2_33/ai_n57856889/?tag=mantle_skin;content

The year 2011 began with momentous changes across

AND

of Iran's position in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility

David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of the policy

AND

the region as a whole depends on it.

Political credibility is key to security guarantees

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and

AND

and decided to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle

AND

the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

Iran is close to getting a nuclear weapon

Peter Brookes, Fall/Winter 2010, The Journal of International Security Affairs, "The Post-Iran Proliferation Cascade," http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2010/19/brookes.php

With the exception of a handful of capitals

AND

–the levels needed for a nuclear weapon.

Only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war

Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006 [“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]

The manner in which Iran emerges as a

AND

interest not to allow such chaos to reign.

Credibility in the Middle East is necessary to assure Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

Amitai Etzioni, March-April 2011, Military Review, "The coming test of U.S. credibility," http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

American allies in other regions are also consumed

AND

but not to cite the source or venue.)

Japan’s confidence prevents rearm – that causes nuclear war

Mr. Feith (AND), a former under secretary of defense for policy (2001-05), is the author of “War and Decision: Inside the Pentagon at the Dawn of the War on Terrorism” (HarperCollins, 2008). Mr. Shulsky is a former Defense Department official who dealt with arms control issues. Both are senior fellows at the Hudson Institute.  WSJ, “Why Revive the Cold War?”  August 3, 2009.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204313604574328430978849134.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

There is an important connection between proliferation risks

AND

might be one of the costliest mistakes ever.

Lack of Taiwan assurance leads to U.S.-China war

O’Hanlon adjunct professor at John Hopkins and lecturer at Princeton and Bush, 07 [Michael, “A war like no other: the truth about China's challenge to America”, p. google books]

War between China and Taiwan is a distinct

AND

would sit out a China-Taiwan war.

Causes extinction

Straits Times 00 Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan, June 25 LEXIS

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

AND

, we would see the destruction of civilisation.

A weak U.S.-Korean alliance makes war on the Peninsula inevitable

Pritchard et al 09 (Jack, co-chair of the Independent Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula; John, co-chair with Pritchard; and Scott, adjunct senior fellow for Korea Studies, June 16, “A New Chapter for US-South Korea Alliance”, Council on Foreign Relations, AD: 7-28-9)

By conducting a second nuclear test in May

AND

to decouple their plight from Pyongyang's missile tests.

Korea war causes extinction

Hayes and Green, 10 - *Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5,

http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf]

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation

AND

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

Plan

The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain.

Advantage

Unconditional US support for democratic reforms in Bahrain necessary to bolster the Crown Prince, bring the opposition to the table, and trigger genuine democratic reform

Karen Leigh, 6/8/11, TIME, "The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally," http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html

The U.S. government's aim this

AND

and tear gas stops raining down on Manama.

Fifth Fleet will leave Bahrain absent stability

The Australian 7-21-11 (“US fleet may quit troubled Bahrain”, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227, SRM)

THE US Navy is looking at plans to

AND

, destroyers and a submarine based in Bahrain.

Retreat from our forward presence in Bahrain rolls back our credibility in the region

Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, October 23, 2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

Retreating from forward bases could undermine the goals

AND

furthers diplomatic initiatives and contributes to economic development.

A credibility gap allows Russia and China to fill the void

Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]

The decline in U.S. standing

AND

Russian engagement could spread into the security portfolio.

Russian influence in the Middle East is uniquely destabilizing

Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]

Although Russia is not currently in a position

AND

principal means of advancing its Middle East agenda.

Russian influence leads to regional imperialism

Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]

This sharp contrast in reactions to Russia’s resurgence

AND

kinder, gentler alternative to the United States.

Russian imperialism causes global destruction

Ariel Cohen, 1-25-97, Ph.D, Senior Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation Reports,

Much is at stake in Eurasia  for the

AND

the benefit of both Western and local economies.

The forced retreat of the U.S. would leave Russia and China the victors

J.R. Nyquist, 3/13/09, Global Analysis, "Chaos, Confusion, and Civil War," http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/0313.html

Americans are naturally skeptical of Panarin’s analysis.

AND

these small powers are helpless against great powers.

That expands oppression globally

J.R. Nyquist, 12/24/04, "Soros versus Horowitz," http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2004/1224.html

Horowitz demonstrates that the president’s critics are,

AND

or the character of George W. Bush.

An American retreat causes global injustice

J.R. Nyquist, 6/3/05, "Trivial Propositions and the Big Picture," http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2005/0603.html

The second statement asserts that American power has

AND

Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia.

Even if America is an empire it is benign and better than the alt

Bil 2006 (Max, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, "Power for Good", The Weekly Standard. 10 April. Vol. 11, Issue 28, Factiva)

His case for labeling the United States a

AND

such as democracy. peace. and prosperity.

Only America can defeat the worst forms of imperialism

KAUFMAN 7 – Robert, professor of public policy at the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. In Defense Of The Bush Doctrine. Pg. 66

The issue is not whether a broad coalition

AND

turns out to be a long business:4

The alternative to American hegemony is uniquely worse – especially true in the Middle East

FERGUSON-2K4

NIALL. IN "IMPERIAL DENIAL." WITH NONNA GORILOVSKAYA. MAY/JUNE 2004. http ://www. globalpo I icy . org/empire/analvs is/2004/052 mperi al d en i al .htm)

Well, it could be for a very

AND

especially for the people of the Middle East.>

The American model of hegemony is distinct and superior from any other

IKENBERRY 2004 (John.  Foreign Affairs, “Illusions of Empire.”  Lexis.)

If the United States is an empire,

AND

of an expanding system of democracy and capitalism.

WANING EMPIRE LEADS TO WORSE FORMS OF OPPRESSION

IKENBERRY 2004 (John.  Foreign Affairs, “Illusions of Empire.”  Lexis.)

Two implications follow from the United States' strange

AND

points to the disintegration of the American empire.

Plan:

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered nonviolent political parties in Egypt.

Advantage 1 - Democracy

The Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections now - Elections assistance will prevent them from dominating and have a moderating effect

Trager ‘11

[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the

AND

the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing fails

Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt," http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=42766

As the U.S. government assesses

AND

exclusion would be a good way to start.

Even if some Egyptians were upset about past assistance that does not prevent the plan from solving.

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

In March, USAID in Egypt placed advertisements

AND

of the elections, the Egyptian people does."

More funding to party building organizations is critical – these groups are proven to succeed and US engagement will energize Egyptian expectations.

Schenker 11 (David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense April 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf )

As with the revolution, Egyptians will be

AND

, for a transition to a democratic system.

The transition will fail without political party support – causes Egyptian instability

Alon Ben-Meir, 9/19/11, Huffington Post, "Is this what the revolution was all about?" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/is-this-what-the-revoluti_b_970073.html

The great promises of the Egyptian revolution appear

AND

the people of Egypt and the entire region.

Egyptian Instability spreads to multiple flashpoints for nuclear war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days

AND

armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Independently, an Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Eben Harrell, writer.  TIME, “Regional Nuclear War and the Environment.”  1/22/2009.  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1873164,00.html

In the 1980s, climate scientists in Russia

AND

produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.

Failure to balance the government causes gas shutoff – tanks Israeli econ

Ynetnews 11

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4020922,00.html

 Ynetnews is Israel's most comprehensive, authoritative daily source for 24/7 breaking news & current events from Israel and Jewish content online.

 Egypt now earns nearly $2 billion AND  raise the prices above market value. 

Egypt cutoff perception = new Israeli gas exploration

Clark 6/21/11

http://www.newsbase.com/newsbasearchive/news/meog.pdf

 Egyptian threat The quest to secure additional

AND

fleet, to work on the Noa development.

Israel allies with Greek Cypriots, causes war with Turkey

Cagaptay 9/8/11

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/cagaptay-israel-turkey-conflict/

 Soner Cagaptay is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is the co-author, with Scott Carpenter, ofRegenerating the U.S.-Turkey Partnership.

 The specter of conflict also hangs over

AND

flames of gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea.

Escalates into allout Mideast war

Matt 9/17/11

http://www.1913intel.com/2011/09/17/israeli-greek-turkish-air-sea-forces-on-guard-for-first-cypriot-gas-drilling/

actuary and risk manager, author of 1913 miltiary intelligence blog

Military tension is building up among Greece,

AND

push to eliminate Israel once and for all. 

Extinction

Stirling 11

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/02/advanced-biological-warfare.html

 I hold 3 degrees: B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies; B.Sc. in Education. I have worked on 3 addtional degrees: M.T.S. (theology); LL.B. (English Law); M.S. (Criminal Justice). I am former Scottish Editor at Burke's Peerage in London.

 Saddam Hussein's military had prepared what it

AND

survive the global use of Advanced Biological Warfare.

Advantage 2 - Credibility

American credibility in the Middle East will collapse by the end of 2011 due to military drawdowns. Democracy assistance is key to maintaining credibility.

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan," http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb137/is_2_33/ai_n57856889/?tag=mantle_skin;content

The year 2011 began with momentous changes across

AND

of Iran's position in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility

David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of the policy

AND

the region as a whole depends on it.

Maintaining credibility is vital to keep our fragile alliances intact

Kramer ‘11

[Martin, Washington Institute’s WexlerFromer fellow, May 12-13, The Arab Spring: Implications for America and the Middle East, Between Protests and Power Middle East Change and U.S. Interest, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/Soref2011Proceedings.pdf]

Developments in the Middle East can be thought

AND

they do not like the company it keeps.

China is vying for influence in the Middle East – this undercuts the U.S. by stealing our allies

David Schenker and Christina Lin, 11/16/10, LA Times, "China's rise in the Middle East," http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/16/opinion/la-oe-schenker-china-mideast-20101116

The reach of the People’s Republic is far

AND

in the Middle East for the United States.

The plan solidifies our role in the Middle East – the alternative is energy insecurity. Now is the time to peacefully crowd China out

Peter Kiernan, 5/12/08, World Politics Review, "West must learn to manage China's growing Middle East influence," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/2097/west-must-learn-to-manage-chinas-growing-middle-east-influence

China's strategy, therefore, is to non

AND

ease away from their political dependence on Washington.

Chinese influence in the Middle East leads to energy competition over Saudi Arabia

Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]

By any measure, China’s ties in the

AND

global demand fails to keep pace with forecasts.

Energy competition will cause a war

Luft & Korin ‘4 [Gal (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) & Anne (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS), Mar, “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm]

The Chinese also have at their disposal immense

AND

Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.

That causes nuclear energy wars

[Jim Cabral, “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy”, Valley Advocate, 8-12-2010]

The preoccupation of states with securing the reliability

AND

that they will be caught in any conflagration."

Historical legacies cause miscalculation

Lieberthal, Professor of Political Science and William Davidson Professor of International Business at the University of Michigan, 05 [ Kenneth, “Preventing a War Over Taiwan”, March/April, http://websupport1.citytech.cuny.edu/Faculty/pparides/lieberthal.pdf]

Wars sometimes occur because of miscalculations influenced by

AND

developments, the Bush administration should move quickly.

And, Escalation will spiral out of control

Swaine, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment, [Asia Program] postdoctoral fellow at the University of Berkeley, 04 [Dr. Michael, “Trouble in Taiwan”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=view&id=1460]

A war with China over Taiwan would,

AND

that escalation might prove extremely difficult to control.

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered political parties in Egypt.

Advantage 1 – The Transition

The Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections now - technical assistance will have a moderating effect

Trager ‘11

[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the

AND

the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing fails

Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt," http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=42766

As the U.S. government assesses

AND

exclusion would be a good way to start.

Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance - including the Brotherhood defuses anti-American resistance

Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

For years, U.S. officials

AND

parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

More funding to party building organizations is critical – these groups are proven to succeed and US engagement will energize Egyptian expectations.

Schenker 11 (David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense April 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf )

As with the revolution, Egyptians will be

AND

, for a transition to a democratic system.

Even if some Egyptians were upset about past assistance that does not prevent the plan from solving.

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

In March, USAID in Egypt placed advertisements

AND

of the elections, the Egyptian people does."

Short term solvency – campaigns are just starting and staggered elections

Gemal Essam El-Din, 10/26/11, Ahram Online, "With polls around corner, Egypt gripped by election fever," http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentm/1/64/25206.aspx

Polls for the People’s Assembly will be held

AND

can begin their election campaigns,” he said.

And we solve for the long term

James Zogby, 10/22/11, Huffington Post, "Whether in Egypt or America, it takes organization to win," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/arab-spring-elections_b_1026281.html

A survey of social media posts in the

AND

the political scene. Their time will come.

The transition will fail without political party support – this collapses relations with Israel and makes regional instability inevitable

Alon Ben-Meir, 9/19/11, Huffington Post, "Is this what the revolution was all about?" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/is-this-what-the-revoluti_b_970073.html

The great promises of the Egyptian revolution appear

AND

the people of Egypt and the entire region.

Egyptian Instability spreads to multiple flashpoints for war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days

AND

armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Independently, an Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Eben Harrell, writer.  TIME, “Regional Nuclear War and the Environment.”  1/22/2009.  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1873164,00.html

In the 1980s, climate scientists in Russia

AND

produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.

Peace treaty collapse causes an Israeli lashout

Kyle Brady, August 2011, PolicyMic, "A dangerous time for egypt and israel," http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1426

Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors

AND

given, more so now than ever before.

Lashout likely – peace treaty collapse isolates Israel

Alon Ben-Meir and Amr Yossef, 10/13/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html

At the regional level, peace with its

AND

the tension between Israel and the European Union.

An Israeli lashout causes extinction.

Al-Jazeerah, March 2010, "Israel could to wipe out Europe with nuclear weapons and expel all Palestinians, says Israeli military historian MartinKarfeld,"http://www.aljazeerah.info/News/2010/March/11%20n/Israel%20could%20to%20wipe%20out%20Europe%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20and%20expel%20all%20Palestinians,%20says%20Israeli%20military%20historian%20Martin%20Karfeld.htm

Noted Israeli military historian Martin Karfeld stated that

AND

felt its existence would be doomed to extinction.

Advantage 2 - Credibility

American credibility in the Middle East will collapse by the end of 2011 due to military drawdowns. Democracy assistance is key to maintaining credibility.

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan," http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb137/is_2_33/ai_n57856889/?tag=mantle_skin;content

The year 2011 began with momentous changes across

AND

of Iran's position in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility

David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of the policy

AND

the region as a whole depends on it.

Refusal to support all parties is the root cause of Egyptian opposition to aid and undermines our credibility

John Esposito, 10/22/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt eight months later: transition from dictatorship to democracy?' http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-l-esposito/egypt-government-transition_b_1026536.html

The U.S. Secretary of State

AND

its credibility and role in the Middle East.

Political credibility is key to security guarantees

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and

AND

and decided to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle

AND

the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

In 2010, Iran was only a few years from a bomb

Peter Brookes, Fall/Winter 2010, The Journal of International Security Affairs, "The Post-Iran Proliferation Cascade," http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2010/19/brookes.php

With the exception of a handful of capitals

AND

–the levels needed for a nuclear weapon.

Due to the Arab Spring, those efforts have only accelerated

Sallai Meridor, 9/7/11, Washington Post, "As Arab Spring unfolds, who is watching Iran?" http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20110907a4.html

While everyone is watching events unfold in Libya

AND

clout than the possession of a nuclear bomb?

Only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war

Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006 [“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]

The manner in which Iran emerges as a

AND

interest not to allow such chaos to reign.

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction

Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers

SAN FRANCISCO -- With superpower nuclear arsenals plummeting

AND

in recent history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

Aff: Wichita State BM

Round # 8  Tournament: Shirley

vs: Emory CM

Judge: Harris

Plan Text

wiki

1ac Advantages

Democracy (ME war, bioweapons)

Cred (oil wars with China)

2ac Offense

Euro collapse DA to EU-NED CP

1ar Strategy

Heg bad (terror, prolif, retaliation)

2ar Strategy

(2nr k)

Case outweighs

Perm 

Aff: Wichita BM

Round #3   Tournament: Shirley

vs: MSU LR

Judge: Aaron Kall

Plan Text

Same as Wiki

1ac Advantages

Transition Advantage

Credibility Advantage

2ac Offense

Dedev on Payroll Politics DA

1ar Strategy

Kicked the aff, went all-in on Dedev on Politics

2ar Strategy

Dedev

AFF: Wichita State BM

Round 2

Vs Weber State OG

Judge: Stanley

Plan text: USFG should increase technical assistance to all legally registered political poarties in Egypt

1AC adv

Transition adv—india pak war and Israeli lashout

Credibility adv –middle east instability and prolif

2AC offense

Imperialism good

Method focus causes paradigm wars

Vague alts

1AR strat

Framework fairness comes first

Perm

Our method is sound but yours causes war/paralysis

2AR strat

Permutation

Method is sound

Aff o/w K 

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered political parties in Egypt.

Advantage 1 – The Transition

The Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections now - technical assistance will have a moderating effect

Trager ‘11

[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the

AND

the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing fails

Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt," http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=42766

As the U.S. government assesses

AND

exclusion would be a good way to start.

Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance - including the Brotherhood defuses anti-American resistance

Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

For years, U.S. officials

AND

parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

More funding to party building organizations is critical – these groups are proven to succeed and US engagement will energize Egyptian expectations.

Schenker 11 (David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense April 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment” Washington Institute for Near East Policy http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf )

As with the revolution, Egyptians will be

AND

, for a transition to a democratic system.

Even if some Egyptians were upset about past assistance that does not prevent the plan from solving.

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

In March, USAID in Egypt placed advertisements

AND

of the elections, the Egyptian people does."

Short term solvency – campaigns are just starting and staggered elections

Gemal Essam El-Din, 10/26/11, Ahram Online, "With polls around corner, Egypt gripped by election fever," http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentm/1/64/25206.aspx

Polls for the People’s Assembly will be held

AND

can begin their election campaigns,” he said.

And we solve for the long term

James Zogby, 10/22/11, Huffington Post, "Whether in Egypt or America, it takes organization to win," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/arab-spring-elections_b_1026281.html

A survey of social media posts in the

AND

the political scene. Their time will come.

The transition will fail without political party support – this collapses relations with Israel and makes regional instability inevitable

Alon Ben-Meir, 9/19/11, Huffington Post, "Is this what the revolution was all about?" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/is-this-what-the-revoluti_b_970073.html

The great promises of the Egyptian revolution appear

AND

the people of Egypt and the entire region.

Egyptian Instability spreads to multiple flashpoints for war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days

AND

armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Independently, an Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Eben Harrell, writer.  TIME, “Regional Nuclear War and the Environment.”  1/22/2009.  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1873164,00.html

In the 1980s, climate scientists in Russia

AND

produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.

Peace treaty collapse causes an Israeli lashout

Kyle Brady, August 2011, PolicyMic, "A dangerous time for egypt and israel," http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1426

Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors

AND

given, more so now than ever before.

Lashout likely – peace treaty collapse isolates Israel

Alon Ben-Meir and Amr Yossef, 10/13/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html

At the regional level, peace with its

AND

the tension between Israel and the European Union.

An Israeli lashout causes extinction.

Al-Jazeerah, March 2010, "Israel could to wipe out Europe with nuclear weapons and expel all Palestinians, says Israeli military historian MartinKarfeld,"http://www.aljazeerah.info/News/2010/March/11%20n/Israel%20could%20to%20wipe%20out%20Europe%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20and%20expel%20all%20Palestinians,%20says%20Israeli%20military%20historian%20Martin%20Karfeld.htm

Noted Israeli military historian Martin Karfeld stated that

AND

felt its existence would be doomed to extinction.

Advantage 2 - Credibility

American credibility in the Middle East will collapse by the end of 2011 due to military drawdowns. Democracy assistance is key to maintaining credibility.

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan," http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb137/is_2_33/ai_n57856889/?tag=mantle_skin;content

The year 2011 began with momentous changes across

AND

of Iran's position in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility

David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of the policy

AND

the region as a whole depends on it.

Refusal to support all parties is the root cause of Egyptian opposition to aid and undermines our credibility

John Esposito, 10/22/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt eight months later: transition from dictatorship to democracy?' http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-l-esposito/egypt-government-transition_b_1026536.html

The U.S. Secretary of State

AND

its credibility and role in the Middle East.

Political credibility is key to security guarantees

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and

AND

and decided to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle

AND

the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

Newest evidence proves Iran is nuclearizing

Shipman 11-10

[Tim, 2011, Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month to prevent development of nuclear weapons

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059462/UN-report-Iran-IS-trying-build-nuclear-bomb-warns-William-Hague.html?ito=feeds-newsxml]

Ahmadinejad's regime is already thought to have built

AND

, including fitting a warhead onto a missile.

Only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war

Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006 [“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]

The manner in which Iran emerges as a

AND

interest not to allow such chaos to reign.

Maintaining a credible military option is key to prevent strikes

Shipman 11-10

[Tim, 2011, Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month to prevent development of nuclear weapons

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059462/UN-report-Iran-IS-trying-build-nuclear-bomb-warns-William-Hague.html?ito=feeds-newsxml]

Ahead of the report's release, Israeli Defence

AND

by Israeli politicians to mean a military assault.

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction

Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers

SAN FRANCISCO -- With superpower nuclear arsenals plummeting

AND

in recent history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for all legally registered political parties in Egypt.

Advantage 1 - Credibility

American credibility in the Middle East will collapse by the end of 2011 -Democracy assistance is key to maintain it

Emma Sky, Summer 2011, Harvard International Review, "Arab Spring...American fall? Learning the right lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan," http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb137/is_2_33/ai_n57856889/?tag=mantle_skin;content

The year 2011 began with momentous changes across

AND

of Iran's position in Iraq and the region.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Assistance will build a new foundation for U.S.-Egyptian relations - vital to regional credibility

David Schenker, April 2011, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Egypt's Enduring Challenges," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf

For this reason, each of the policy

AND

the region as a whole depends on it.

Refusal to support all parties is the root cause of Egyptian opposition to aid and undermines our credibility

John Esposito, 10/22/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt eight months later: transition from dictatorship to democracy?' http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-l-esposito/egypt-government-transition_b_1026536.html

The U.S. Secretary of State

AND

its credibility and role in the Middle East.

Maintaining credibility is vital to keep our fragile alliances intact

Kramer ‘11

[Martin, Washington Institute’s WexlerFromer fellow, May 12-13, The Arab Spring: Implications for America and the Middle East, Between Protests and Power Middle East Change and U.S. Interest, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/Soref2011Proceedings.pdf]

Developments in the Middle East can be thought

AND

they do not like the company it keeps.

China is vying for influence in the Middle East – this undercuts the U.S. by stealing our allies

David Schenker and Christina Lin, 11/16/10, LA Times, "China's rise in the Middle East," http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/16/opinion/la-oe-schenker-china-mideast-20101116

The reach of the People’s Republic is far

AND

in the Middle East for the United States.

The plan solidifies our role in the Middle East – the alternative is energy insecurity. Now is the time to peacefully crowd China out

Peter Kiernan, 5/12/08, World Politics Review, "West must learn to manage China's growing Middle East influence," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/2097/west-must-learn-to-manage-chinas-growing-middle-east-influence

China's strategy, therefore, is to non

AND

ease away from their political dependence on Washington.

Chinese influence in the Middle East leads to energy competition over Saudi Arabia

Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf]

By any measure, China’s ties in the

AND

global demand fails to keep pace with forecasts.

Energy competition will cause a war

Luft & Korin ‘4 [Gal (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) & Anne (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS), Mar, “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” http://www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm]

The Chinese also have at their disposal immense

AND

Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.

That causes nuclear energy wars

[Jim Cabral, “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy”, Valley Advocate, 8-12-2010]

The preoccupation of states with securing the reliability

AND

that they will be caught in any conflagration."

Historical legacies cause miscalculation

Lieberthal, Professor of Political Science and William Davidson Professor of International Business at the University of Michigan, 05 [ Kenneth, “Preventing a War Over Taiwan”, March/April, http://websupport1.citytech.cuny.edu/Faculty/pparides/lieberthal.pdf]

Wars sometimes occur because of miscalculations influenced by

AND

developments, the Bush administration should move quickly.

And, Escalation will spiral out of control

Swaine, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment, [Asia Program] postdoctoral fellow at the University of Berkeley, 04 [Dr. Michael, “Trouble in Taiwan”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=view&id=1460]

A war with China over Taiwan would,

AND

that escalation might prove extremely difficult to control.

Advantage 2 – The Transition

The Muslim Brotherhood will win the elections now - technical assistance will prevent them from dominating

Trager ‘11

[September-October, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties. The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704]

Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the

AND

the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Comprehensive development of political parties is key - picking and choosing fails

Thomas Carothers, 2/24/11, [Carothers a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He has worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world.], Washington Post, "How not to promote democracy in Egypt," http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=42766

As the U.S. government assesses

AND

exclusion would be a good way to start.

Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance - including the Brotherhood defuses anti-American resistance

Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

For years, U.S. officials

AND

parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

Even if some Egyptians were upset about past assistance that does not prevent the plan from solving.

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, 8/24/11, Al-Ahram Weekly On-line, "Reiterating the differences," http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm

In March, USAID in Egypt placed advertisements

AND

of the elections, the Egyptian people does."

Short term solvency – campaigns are just starting and staggered elections

Gemal Essam El-Din, 10/26/11, Ahram Online, "With polls around corner, Egypt gripped by election fever," http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentm/1/64/25206.aspx

Polls for the People’s Assembly will be held

AND

can begin their election campaigns,” he said.

And we solve for the long term

James Zogby, 10/22/11, Huffington Post, "Whether in Egypt or America, it takes organization to win," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/arab-spring-elections_b_1026281.html

A survey of social media posts in the

AND

the political scene. Their time will come.

Failure to check the Muslim Brotherhood will cause Egyptian prolif and middle east arms race

Sokolski ‘11

[Henry, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

 Feb 8, Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire, http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak]

Even more dangerously, unlike Iraq, Syria

AND

states whose governments are likely to be destabilized.

Middle Eastern arms races end in nuclear war

Rosen in ‘6—national security professor @Harvard

[Stephen Peter, Professor of National Security at Harvard, "After Proliferation", Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2006, p. asp ]

During the Cold War, the United States

AND

the accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.

Most likely scenario for conflict

Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

For some time I have been warning that

AND

, and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

Even if they didn’t go nuclear the result would be a highly advanced chemical weapons program spreading across the region

Windrem ‘11

[Robert, Senior Investigative Producer,  Concerns grow over Egypt's WMD research, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41452744/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/concerns-grow-over-egypts-wmd-research/#.Tr2Pk4AbXC5]

But as Russell and others note, the

AND

the more advanced military chemicals in the world.

Middle East bio-weapon use spreads globally.

Shamis and Shalem 2 - Diora Shamis and Shalem 2 is Chief Editor and CEO; Diane Shalem, English Editor and Head of Research. Both had long records as international correspondents with mainstream media before opening DEBKAfile, “Pandemic Potential in Mid East Bio Warfare”, DebkaFile, 12/23, http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=227

The danger of biological warfare turning into a

AND

across the borders would have the same effect.

Extinction

Singer 1 (Clifford E., professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, “Will mankind survive the millennium?” Bulletin of the program in Arms Control Disarmament, and International Security, 13:1, Swords and Ploughshares, http://acdis.illinois.edu/assets/docs/312/WillMankindSurvivetheMillennium.pdf)

There are, however, two technologies currently

AND

in question when and if this is achieved.

Smooth transition key to prevent terrorist apprehension of nuclear material

Morris and Loh ‘11

[Patricia ”Trish” Morris is the Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Dadie, A New Nuclear Posture for Egypt?,

http://armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nonproliferation/articles/a_new_nuclear_posture_for_egypt/]

The growth of Egypt’s civilian nuclear energy sector

AND

nuclear materials, as Morocco did in 2007.

Even if terrorists couldn’t detonate a nuke they could explode a dirty bomb

Taina Susiluoto,  Tactical Nuclear Weapons Time for Control,  The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, 2002   http://www.unidir.org/pdf/ouvrages/pdf-1-92-9045-143-2-en.pdf

The process needed for the delivery of a

AND

wide area and cause severe and lasting disruption.

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Morgan 9 – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus – South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)

In a remarkable website on nuclear war,

AND

unimaginable misery and suffering in a nuclear winter.

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance to non-governmental organizations for civil society support in Egypt.

Advantage 1 – The Transition

SCAF raids against civil society organizations are undermining the transition. The US must increase support to these groups to prevent repression of democratic groups.

David Kramer, 12/29/11, Washington Post, "Stomping on human rights in Egypt," http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/stomping-on-human-rights-in-egypt/2011/12/29/gIQAtySOPP_story.html

A months-long campaign against civil-

AND

projects subsidized by U.S. taxpayers.

U.S. assistance is vital to the transition and gets the SCAF on board with reform

Esposito 10/26/11

http://www.policymic.com/group/showCompetition/id/2150

 John Esposito University Professor as well as Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, John L. Esposito is Founding Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. Esposito has served as consultant to the U.S. Department of State and other agencies, European and Asian governments and corporations, universities, and the media worldwide.

The Way Forward We live in a changing

AND

, let's walk the way we have talked.

Only we solve the transition – any backlash is overwhelmed by support generated by the plan

Schenker 7/25/11

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459

 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories.

 As Egypt approaches this crossroads, Washington

AND

, for a transition to a democratic system. 

Independently, strong civil society empowers moderates within the Brotherhood

Kevin Russell 8/22/11, PhD student in Political Science at Yale University. He previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense primarily in the Middle East office for the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. From 2008 to 2009 he was detailed to the State Dept as a governance advisor to a US Army Brigade in Taji, Iraq. Russell graduated with an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS in 2004 and a BA in astrophysics and philosophy from Williams College in 2000, “The fight over democratic norms in Egypt”, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kevin-russell/fight-over-democratic-norms-in-egypt

However, the Tahrir revolution threatens to undo

AND

police from eliciting bribes at every traffic light.

Failure to do so radicalizes the Brotherhood by aligning them with the Salafists

Mohamed Elmenshawy, 12/13/11, The Huffington Post, "Egypt: Islamists vs. Islamists," (Elmenshawy is the director of languages and regional studies program at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC), http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mohamed-elmenshawy/egypt-election-results_b_1144102.html

The first free and by all accounts fair

AND

rather than pressure them to grow more moderate.

Technical assistance to civil societies is crucial to the transition

POMED, 11 (Project On Middle East Democracy, POMED Notes: “The Role of Civil Society in a New Egypt” On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion on the path ahead for Egypt and the role civil society can play in supporting the country’s development in its democratic transition. John Page, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution made opening remarks and introduced the following panelists: Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center; Hisham Fahmy, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt; Jackie Kameel, Managing Director of Nahdet El Mahrousa; Awais Sufi, Vice President of the International Youth Foundation; and Amira Maaty, Program Officer for Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. March 25, 2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/03/pomed-notes-the-role-of-civil-society-in-a-new-egypt.html/)

Before asking panelists to remark on the situation

AND

from opposing the government to partnering with it.

Egyptian Instability spreads to multiple flashpoints for war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days

AND

armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Independently, an Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Eben Harrell, writer.  TIME, “Regional Nuclear War and the Environment.”  1/22/2009.  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1873164,00.html

In the 1980s, climate scientists in Russia

AND

produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history.

That instability sparks regional CBW prolif

Lee Michael Katz, 12/23/11, Global Security Newswire, "Middle East Instability Increases Proliferation Threat, Former U.S. Official Says," http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/

Expanding instability in the Middle East is a

AND

Libya (see GSN, Nov. 15).

Extinction

Richard Ochs, BS in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University, with honors, 2002 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE IMMEDIATELY ABOLISHED, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html

Of all the weapons of mass destruction,

AND

such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

Advantage 2 – Credibility

2011 severely dented our credibility in the Middle East. The plan is necessary to revitalize our alliance with old and new regimes.

Brian Murphy (Associated Press), 12/12/11, "Arab uprisings also reshape map of US influence," http://articles.boston.com/2011-12-12/news/30508018_1_gulf-rulers-united-arab-emirates-persian-gulf/3

About 18 months before the Egyptian uprising that

AND

have to prove their value as allies.’’

The plan’s form of democracy assistance strikes a balance between our support for old and new regimes, which is essential to maintain our alliances

Amitai Etzioni, Fall 2011, Middle East Quarterly, "Toward a nonviolent. pluralistic middle east," Vol 18, Issue 5. Proquest

A Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East. The

AND

force - suffices for becoming a reliable ally.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Nothing else matters – Egypt is key to restoring our credibility

Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, https://www.npr.org/2011/02/11/133661083/u-s-could-use-egypt-to-boost-credibility-some-say

Miller says this is part of a long

AND

card to make sure there are real reforms.

Any backlash to our aid is inevitable and irrelevant

Shadi Hamid 10-1, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

AND

, however, cannot be so easily measured.

Political credibility is key to security guarantees

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and

AND

and decided to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle

AND

the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

Newest evidence proves Iran is nuclearizing

Shipman 11-10

[Tim, 2011, Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month to prevent development of nuclear weapons

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059462/UN-report-Iran-IS-trying-build-nuclear-bomb-warns-William-Hague.html?ito=feeds-newsxml]

Ahmadinejad's regime is already thought to have built

AND

, including fitting a warhead onto a missile.

Only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war

Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006 [“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]

The manner in which Iran emerges as a

AND

interest not to allow such chaos to reign.

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction

Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers

SAN FRANCISCO -- With superpower nuclear arsenals plummeting

AND

in recent history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance to non-governmental organizations for civil society support in Egypt.

Advantage 1 – The Transition

SCAF raids against civil society organizations are undermining the transition. The US must increase support to these groups to prevent repression of democratic groups.

David Kramer, 12/29/11, Washington Post, "Stomping on human rights in Egypt," http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/stomping-on-human-rights-in-egypt/2011/12/29/gIQAtySOPP_story.html

A months-long campaign against civil-

AND

projects subsidized by U.S. taxpayers.

U.S. assistance is vital to the transition and gets the SCAF on board with reform

Esposito 10/26/11

http://www.policymic.com/group/showCompetition/id/2150

 John Esposito University Professor as well as Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, John L. Esposito is Founding Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. Esposito has served as consultant to the U.S. Department of State and other agencies, European and Asian governments and corporations, universities, and the media worldwide.

The Way Forward We live in a changing

AND

, let's walk the way we have talked.

Only we solve the transition – any backlash is overwhelmed by support generated by the plan

Schenker 7/25/11

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459

 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories.

 As Egypt approaches this crossroads, Washington

AND

, for a transition to a democratic system. 

Independently, strong civil society empowers moderates within the Brotherhood

Kevin Russell 8/22/11, PhD student in Political Science at Yale University. He previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense primarily in the Middle East office for the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. From 2008 to 2009 he was detailed to the State Dept as a governance advisor to a US Army Brigade in Taji, Iraq. Russell graduated with an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS in 2004 and a BA in astrophysics and philosophy from Williams College in 2000, “The fight over democratic norms in Egypt”, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kevin-russell/fight-over-democratic-norms-in-egypt

However, the Tahrir revolution threatens to undo

AND

police from eliciting bribes at every traffic light.

Failure to do so radicalizes the Brotherhood by aligning them with the Salafists

Mohamed Elmenshawy, 12/13/11, The Huffington Post, "Egypt: Islamists vs. Islamists," (Elmenshawy is the director of languages and regional studies program at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC), http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mohamed-elmenshawy/egypt-election-results_b_1144102.html

The first free and by all accounts fair

AND

rather than pressure them to grow more moderate.

Technical assistance to civil societies is crucial to the transition

POMED, 11 (Project On Middle East Democracy, POMED Notes: “The Role of Civil Society in a New Egypt” On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion on the path ahead for Egypt and the role civil society can play in supporting the country’s development in its democratic transition. John Page, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution made opening remarks and introduced the following panelists: Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center; Hisham Fahmy, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt; Jackie Kameel, Managing Director of Nahdet El Mahrousa; Awais Sufi, Vice President of the International Youth Foundation; and Amira Maaty, Program Officer for Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. March 25, 2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/03/pomed-notes-the-role-of-civil-society-in-a-new-egypt.html/)

Before asking panelists to remark on the situation

AND

from opposing the government to partnering with it.

Egyptian stability controls the direction of war in the Horn of Africa and stability in Afghanistan.

Gregory R. Copley, February 2011,  (the Editor-in-Chief and founder (in 1972) of the Defense & Foreign Affairs group of publications. He is founder (in 1982, with Dr Stefan T. Possony) and President of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA), the global non-governmental organization (NGO) for senior professional officials involved worldwide in the formulation of national and international strategic policy, heavily involved in classified strategic analysis and operations for governments, worldwide, a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of institutions around the world, currently including the European Cultural Centre, of Delphi, Greece; the University of Belgrade; Intercollege, in Nicosia, Cyprus; and the University of Western Australia) “Strategic ramifications of the Egyptian crisis” http://www.asmarino.com/news-analysis/906-strategic-ramifications-of-the-egyptian-crisis

In the preface to the Defense & Foreign

AND

options for the future encourages decline and instability.

Egyptian strength key to keep Africa conflict from escalate globally

Glick, 12/12/2007 Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday,http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

AND

rejected the finding and so the conflict festers.

Afghan Stability is key to central Asian security – causes great power draw in

Lal 06 (Rollie, Rand Corporation, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

The Asian states neighboring Central Asia have historic

AND

Afghanistan is critical to their own security interests.

Central Asia instability causes global nuclear war

Blank 2k (Stephen, June, pg. http://www.milnet.com/pentagon/Russia-2000-assessment-SSI.pdf)

In 1993 Moscow even threatened World War III to deter Turkish intervention on behalf of Azerbaijan. Yet the new

Russo-Armenian Treaty and Azeri-Turkish

AND

willing proxies capable of settling the situation.74

Advantage 2 – Credibility

2011 severely dented our credibility in the Middle East. The plan is necessary to revitalize our alliance with old and new regimes.

Brian Murphy (Associated Press), 12/12/11, "Arab uprisings also reshape map of US influence," http://articles.boston.com/2011-12-12/news/30508018_1_gulf-rulers-united-arab-emirates-persian-gulf/3

About 18 months before the Egyptian uprising that

AND

have to prove their value as allies.’’

The plan’s form of democracy assistance strikes a balance between our support for old a new regimes, which is essential to maintain our alliances

Amitai Etzioni, Fall 2011, Middle East Quarterly, "Toward a nonviolent. pluralistic middle east," Vol 18, Issue 5. Proquest

A Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East. The

AND

force - suffices for becoming a reliable ally.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Nothing else matters – Egypt is key to restoring our credibility

Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, https://www.npr.org/2011/02/11/133661083/u-s-could-use-egypt-to-boost-credibility-some-say

Miller says this is part of a long

AND

card to make sure there are real reforms.

Any backlash to our aid is inevitable and irrelevant

Shadi Hamid 10-1, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

AND

, however, cannot be so easily measured.

Political credibility is key to security guarantees

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and

AND

and decided to acquire its own nuclear deterrent.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle

AND

the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

Newest evidence proves Iran is nuclearizing

Shipman 11-10

[Tim, 2011, Israel may launch strike on Iran as soon as next month to prevent development of nuclear weapons

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059462/UN-report-Iran-IS-trying-build-nuclear-bomb-warns-William-Hague.html?ito=feeds-newsxml]

Ahmadinejad's regime is already thought to have built

AND

, including fitting a warhead onto a missile.

Only American credibility prevents breakout proliferation and war

Peter N. Madson, U.S. Navy Lieutenant, March 2006 [“THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN,” Naval Postgraduate School Thesis]

The manner in which Iran emerges as a

AND

interest not to allow such chaos to reign.

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction

Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers

SAN FRANCISCO -- With superpower nuclear arsenals plummeting

AND

in recent history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for journalism training in Egypt.

Advantage 1 is democracy

SCAF is cracking down now due to lack of a strong, independent media. This will crush media rights and derail the transition. Now is the key time to tip the balance in Egypt.

Iskandar ‘12

[Adel, 1-12, Media Scholar and lecturer, Georgetown University , Egypt Media Flourish Amid Fears , http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adel-iskandar/egypt-television_b_1195958.html]

On the morning of February of 12th,

AND

in the not-so-distant future.

The SCAF is breaking away from the US now by having the state media spread propaganda. Only an independent media provides an alternative voice.

DEM DIGEST, 2012

(Raids reveal Egyptian military’s ‘strategy of tension’?, January 3,

AND

)

The allegations follow a series of raids on

AND

are turning against SCAF, and against Tantawi.”

Only media support can stop the transition from stalling

CIMA, October 2011, (Center of International Media Assistance), "The legal enabling environment for independent media in egypt and tunisia," http://cima.ned.org/sites/default/files/CIMA-LEE%20Egypt%20Tunisia%20FINAL3.pdf

The world has been riveted by events occurring

AND

accountable to the people in these fledgling democracies.

An independent media is vital to building democracy in Egypt.

Sharif Abdel Kouddons, 6/20/11, The Nation, "After Mubarak, fighting for press freedom in Egypt," http://www.thenation.com/article/161555/after-mubarak-fighting-press-freedom-egypt

Despite the crackdown, there is a burgeoning

AND

for freedom of the media is just beginning.

Democratic regression escalates sectarian violence against Coptic Christians

Umam 10/18/11

http://www.thejakartapost.com/

AND

with-democratic-transition-egypt.html

 The writer is a lecturer in the Department of International Relations, Paramadina University, Jakarta.

Conflicts between Muslim and Coptic Christian communities have

AND

serious threat to global peace and international stability.

That destabilizes Egypt

Eric Trager, 10/12/11, Washington Institute, "Crossed," http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1730

The deep divide in the way that the

AND

We're not building a new Israel somewhere else."

Spread regionally – triggers an Indo-Pak war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days

AND

armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Eben Harrell, writer.  TIME, “Regional Nuclear War and the Environment.”  1/22/2009.  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1873164,00.html

In the 1980s, climate scientists in Russia

AND

planet, and produce climate change unprecedented in recorded

Additionally, protracted sectarian conflict splits Egypt – causes an environmental catastrophe in the Nile Valley

Yontan Zunger 2/2/11 (Zunger has a B.A. in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Colorado, Boulder and a Ph.D. in Physics from Stanford University.)

AND

If short-term but intense violence were

AND

to even worse problems in the long term.

The Nile valley is key to migratory birds and global biodiversity

National Geographic Society 01 http://www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/pa/pa0904.html

For about a billion birds that fly from

AND

just Egypt but for much of the world.

Biodiversity collapse causes extinction

ScienceDaily (Aug. 14, 2011)

Biodiversity Key to Earth's Life-Support Functions in a Changing World

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm

In an international research group led by Prof

AND

factor in maintaining Earth's life-support functions.

Disruption of the Nile causes war in the Horn of Africa.

Gregory R. Copley, February 2011,  (the Editor-in-Chief and founder (in 1972) of the Defense & Foreign Affairs group of publications. He is founder (in 1982, with Dr Stefan T. Possony) and President of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA), the global non-governmental organization (NGO) for senior professional officials involved worldwide in the formulation of national and international strategic policy, heavily involved in classified strategic analysis and operations for governments, worldwide, a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of institutions around the world, currently including the European Cultural Centre, of Delphi, Greece; the University of Belgrade; Intercollege, in Nicosia, Cyprus; and the University of Western Australia) “Strategic ramifications of the Egyptian crisis” http://www.asmarino.com/news-analysis/906-strategic-ramifications-of-the-egyptian-crisis

. Such a sudden loss of Egypt's Nile

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populations from the growing deprivation in the country.

Egyptian strength key to keep Africa conflict from escalate globally

Glick, 12/12/2007 Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday,http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

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rejected the finding and so the conflict festers.

American support for Egypt’s independent media makes democracy sustainable and the plan solves quickly.

Erin Snider and David Faris, Fall 2011, Middle East Policy, "The Arab Spring: U.S. Democracy Promotion in Egypt," http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.proxy.wichita.edu/doi/10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00497.x/full

Democracy promotion in the Middle East has had

AND

the State Department and USAID will be crucial.

Advantage 2 is state media

The plan solidifies the role of an independent media in Egyptian society

Zack Brison, 3/18/11, Reboot, "Egypt: From Revolutions to Institutions - Institutional Overviw: Independent Media," (Reboot is an ongoing scholarly project with the following goal: From Revolutions to Institutions is a look at the people, organizations, and forces that are driving the next stage of Egypt’s transformation. Based on ongoing, on-the-ground field research, its goal is to provide authentic narratives and timely analyses on the governance reform process currently underway) http://thereboot.org/blog/2011/03/18/institutional-overview-independent-media/

To succeed in their role as host to

AND

the political, social and cultural challenges ahead.

Support for journalist training is key – the alternative is a free-for-all media environment

Sankalita Shome, 6/29/11, Community Times, "The Egyptian Media - Poised on the Precipice," http://www.communitytimesonline.com/art-details.aspx?articleid=992

The free-for-all environment that

AND

to adhere to journalism ethics and journalistic standards.

Journalist training is essential to establish an enabling environment for media reform

Sankalita Shome, 6/29/11, Community Times, "The Egyptian Media - Poised on the Precipice," http://www.communitytimesonline.com/art-details.aspx?articleid=992

Any kind of enabling environment will, of

AND

the journalistic principles and better remuneration for them.

An enabling environment is vital to sustain the transition – keeps the public involved.

Sankalita Shome, 6/29/11, Community Times, "The Egyptian Media - Poised on the Precipice," http://www.communitytimesonline.com/art-details.aspx?articleid=992

Building a democracy requires the active participation of

AND

dictate what is news on any given day.”

That is necessary to balance the state media – the alternative collapses the peace treaty

Alon Ben-Meir and Amr Yossef, 10/13/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html

The Egyptian government should encourage a dialogue with

AND

it nearly impossible to defend the peace treaty.

Causes an Egypt-Israeli war

Alon Ben-Meir and Amr Yossef, 10/13/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html

The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel remains

AND

financial assistance for development from the international community.

The war goes nuclear

Zitun 9/5/11

AND

staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer

 IDF general: Likelihood of regional war

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the region and why he exposes secret intelligence information

The peace treaty allows Egypt to manage Hamas – deters aggression against Israel

Alon Ben-Meir and Amr Yossef, 10/13/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html

Finally as long as Israeli-Hamas relations

AND

between the two is a case in point.

Hamas aggression against Israel draws in Hezbollah

Friedman 8/22/11

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110822-israeli-arab-crisis-approaching

 George Friedman is an American political scientist

AND

, and The Future of War.[1]

Egypt is the power that geographically isolates Hamas

AND

is the fundamental strategic problem that Israel has. 

Israel won’t hold anything back

Alon Ben-Meir and Amr Yossef, 10/13/11, Huffington Post, "Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html

At the regional level, peace with its

AND

the tension between Israel and the European Union.

Extinction – Israeli nukes are on high alert and advanced bio-weapons will be used

Stirling 11

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/02/advanced-biological-warfare.html

B.Sc. in Pol. Sc

AND

, former Scottish Editor at Burke's Peerage in London

Saddam Hussein's military had prepared what it called

AND

survive the global use of Advanced Biological Warfare.

T - For

Democracy assistance does not have to go to the government

Daniela Huber, 2/7/08, (Department of IR, Hebrew University of Jerusalem), "Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies," Mediterranean Politics, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13629390701864836

The term democracy assistance is used in academic

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accountable. (USAID, 2005: 4)

“For” has many meanings.  Three relevant to this topic are “intended to reach,” “to the advantage of” and “in the direction of.”

Collins English Dictionary 09

Complete & Unabridged 10th Edition, 2009, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/for#wordorgtop

1.             intended to reach; directed

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nothing for it no choice; no other course

Solvency

Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011, http://www.iri.org/news-events-press-center/news/washington-post-features-iris-work-egypt)

A history of influence American organizations, among

AND

the media through campaigns organized by the government.

Dialogue resolves tensions over democracy assistance

Viola Gienger, 12/31/11, Bloomberg News, "US says Egypt agrees to return raided NGO offices property," http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-30/u-s-says-egypt-agrees-to-return-raided-ngo-offices-property.html

Egyptian authorities have agreed to return property taken

AND

administration said in an e-mailed statement.

SCAF won’t stop transfer of power

Al-Youm 12/29 (Al-Masry Al-Youm, Thu, 29/12/2011, SCAF supports shorter election timetable, says Advisory Council

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/574281)

Egypt's ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces

AND

no candidate achieves a majority of the votes.

Adv 1

War would be likely – deterrence wouldn’t check

NRDC 2 [Natural Resources Defense Council, “The Consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan”, 6.4.02, http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp, AD: 7-31-09)

After India and Pakistan held nuclear tests in

AND

and facilities may provide tempting targets as well.

CP – South Korea

Only the US has the expertise in media training.

USAID, 2/27/11 (Last Modified), "Democracy and Governance: Egypt" http://egypt.usaid.gov/en/programs/Pages/democracyandgovernance.aspx

USAID/Egypt’s Office of Democracy and Governance

AND

work toward enhancing media-civil society relations.

Visible USAID funds are key to credibility in Egypt

Ebeld 7

(Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, http://www.arabinsight.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)

The recent revisions of USAID activity priorities and

AND

the Egyptian public’s perception of the United States.

That’s key to cred in the Middle East

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia 

AND

2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Credibility gap in the Middle East leads to instability and nuclear acquisitions

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

U.S. relationships in the Middle

AND

the region, creating a uniquely dangerous situation.

International Fiat = Bad

Politics - JV

Won’t pass – not top of the docket, and alt causes to relations

Voice of Russia 12-14-11. [“Russia and US face reset troubles” -- http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/14/62204969.html)

There is no information so far whether he

AND

a real reload, favorable for both states.

Solyrnda’s back – costs PC

Maria Gallucci. 1-20-12. “This Week in Clean Economy: Dueling Solyndra Ads Foreshadow Energy-Centric Campaign.” http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20120120/clean-economy-week-2012-elections-ads-solyndra-obama-americans-for-prosperity-koch-wind-ptc-subsidy-vestas.

How much political capital can Republican candidates and

AND

guarantees before going belly-up in August.

The spotlight is on Cordray – tanks PC

AP. 1-20-12. “Obama’s New Consumer Watchdog Reviewing Payday Lending.” http://www.equalvoiceforfamilies.org/2012/obamas-new-consumer-watchdog-reviewing-payday-lending/.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau [CFPA]

AND

have devastating impacts on an already fragile economy.”

Plan would be perceived as pro-Coptic Christian – massively popular

Hibah al-Qudsi, Oct 30 2011

(Congress asked Obama to condemn SCAF for killing Coptic protesters, 2011, http://www.arabwestreport.info/year-2011/week-44/9-congress-asked-obama-condemn-scaf-killing-coptic-protesters)

Article summary: Forty one U.S

AND

Coptic Community in Egypt from the Military government.

Egypt aid is popular – Obama won’t have to push, Kerry and Graham will

Emily Cadei, 3/3/11, Congress.org, "Democracy funding may be squeezed," http://origin-www.congress.org/news/2011/03/03/democracy_funding_may_be_squeezed

At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on

AND

Egypt, Tunisia and, potentially, Libya.

Graham is key to reducing opposition – means Obama won’t spend capital

Scott Horton, 2/17/10, Harper's Magazine, "The all-powerful Lindsey Graham and the principle of freedom," http://harpers.org/archive/2010/02/hbc-90006565

Two recent articles examining the legal policy of

AND

, Lindsey Graham has become “all powerful.”

The plan is a win – boosts PC

Lane 11

(Charles, Washington Post editorial writer, “Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt”, 2-15-11, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/02/15/1545321/obama-can-reap-political-capital.html)

I know we’re not supposed to think about

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in Egypt over the rest of his term.

INDEPENDENT MEDIA ASSISTANCE HAS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT

Gershman, president of the NED, 2011

(Carl, CQ Transcripts, May 3, 2011

THE CONGRESSIONAL CAUCUS FOR FREEDOM OF THE PRESS AND THE NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY'S CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA ASSISTANCE HOLD A DISCUSSION ON "DEFENDING PRESS FREEDOM IN THE 21ST CENTURY" AS A PART OF WORLD PRESS FREEDOM DAY)

It was four years ago on World Press

AND

to create the Daniel Pearl Press Freedom Act.

Other issues derail relats

Richard Solash, 12/15/11, RFERL, "U.S. Officials Push Jackson-Vanik Repeal, Tiptoe Around Magnitsky Legislation ," http://www.rferl.org/content/us_russia_jackson_vanik_magnitsky_wto_gordon_melia/24422300.html

WASHINGTON -- U.S. State Department

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between Washington and Moscow if it becomes law.

CHINA

Relations strained now – Taiwan, trade and currency

Michelle Nichols, 9/27/11, Reuters, "China foreign minister warns Clinton on F-16 deal," http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-china-usa-taiwan-idUSTRE78P41R20110927

China's foreign minister urged the United States on

AND

on China to loosen controls on its currency.

No link – China is avoiding competition in the Middle East

David Rosenberg, 9/9/11, Jerusalem Post, "Beijing stays aloof of Arab Spring - for now," http://www.jpost.com/ArtsAndCulture/Entertainment/Article.aspx?id=237317

China’s traditional foreign policy of staying aloof of

AND

as July, despite a United Nations ban.

Now is the time to solidify our role  – the alternative is energy insecurity

Peter Kiernan, 5/12/08, World Politics Review, "West must learn to manage China's growing Middle East influence," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/2097/west-must-learn-to-manage-chinas-growing-middle-east-influence

China's strategy, therefore, is to non

AND

ease away from their political dependence on Washington.

That causes nuclear energy wars

[Jim Cabral, “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy”, Valley Advocate, 8-12-2010]

The preoccupation of states with securing the reliability

AND

that they will be caught in any conflagration."

Tradeoff da

Cuts inevitable

Voice of America 11 (8/8, “US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question”, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html, Aly M)

However, Sam Worthington, the CEO of

AND

much reason to be optimistic,” said Sumka.

Fiat means the plan would be emergency spending

Castle 1

(Representative, March 8, FDCH, Lexis)

Under current law, ``emergency'' spending is

AND

a year (excluding the Persian Gulf War).

MAKES NO SENSE – THE FY 2012 BUDGET IS AN INCREASE OVER FY 2011 – EVEN IF THEY WIN A TRADE OFF, THEY CAN’T PROVE THAT THE BUDGET FOR THE AFFECTED PROGRAM WOULD BE LESS THAN LAST YEAR – A KEY REQUIREMENT TO TRIGGER THE INTERNAL LINK

Epstein & Lawson, 2012

(Susan, Marian, State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs: FY2012 Budget and Appropriations, January 6, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41905.pdf)

Congress passed the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012

AND

D for account-by-account details.)

K

Framework

Extinction outweighs

Schell, 2000 (Jonathan, The Fate of the Earth, pg.  3 0 )

Having said that each generation has an obligation

AND

in favor of something larger than he is.

The alternative to empire is worse – especially in the Middle East

FERGUSON-2K4

NIALL. IN "IMPERIAL DENIAL." WITH NONNA GORILOVSKAYA. MAY/JUNE 2004. http ://www. globalpo I icy . org/empire/analvs is/2004/052 mperi al d en i al .htm)

Well, it could be for a very

AND

especially for the people of the Middle East.>

Alt Text needs an end point

1AR Cites

CP

Diplomatic cred key to security guarantees

McInnis 2005

[Kathleen J., coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS, “Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly • 28:3 pp. 169–186. http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]

Taking into consideration the potential for Egypt and

AND

be tempted to acquire their own nuclear guarantee.

Credibility in the Middle East assures south korea

Amitai Etzioni, March-April 2011, Military Review, "The coming test of U.S. credibility," http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

American allies in other regions are also consumed

AND

but not to cite the source or venue.)

A weak U.S.-Korean alliance makes war on the Peninsula inevitable

Pritchard et al 09 (Jack, co-chair of the Independent Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula; John, co-chair with Pritchard; and Scott, adjunct senior fellow for Korea Studies, June 16, “A New Chapter for US-South Korea Alliance”, Council on Foreign Relations, AD: 7-28-9)

By conducting a second nuclear test in May

AND

to decouple their plight from Pyongyang's missile tests.

Solves Russian relations

Mohideen, 11 (Mohideen Miftah, Egypt forces Mideast rethink in cautious Russia, http://sundaytimes.lk/analysis/4587-egypt-forces-mideast-rethink-in-cautious-russia.html)

Russia has taken a wait-and-

AND

Moscow to insist on more openness from Tehran.

Solvency

Plan increases public organization – gets scaf out

Michael Hanna, 8/23/11, Foreign Policy, "The mind of Egypt's military," http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/the_mind_of_egypts_military#.TlQbyhsTRr0.email

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (

AND

approach has been haphazard and riddled with indecision.

No Kiss of death

Shadi Hamid 10-1-11, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1

. During the Bush Administration, when anti

AND

moment that doing something would be most effective.

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance to non-governmental organizations for civil society support in Egypt.

Adv 1 – Credibility

Our credibility is collapsing in the Middle East

Brian Murphy (Associated Press), 12/12/11, "Arab uprisings also reshape map of US influence,"

About 18 months before the Egyptian uprising that would doom Hosni Mubarak, …“The U.S. will now have to prove their value as allies.’’

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a litmus test for credibility and stability in the region

Shadi Hamid, 2011, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "The Struggle For Middle East Democracy," http://www.aucegypt.edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=20#

The revolutions are far from complete. … something that Obama promised in his 2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.

Nothing else matters – Egypt is key

Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11,

Miller says this is part of a long trend for the U.S… to make sure there are real reforms.

Maintaining credibility is vital to keep our fragile alliances intact

Kramer ‘11

[Martin, Washington Institute’s WexlerFromer fellow, May 12-13, The Arab Spring: Implications for America and the Middle East, Between Protests and Power Middle East Change and U.S. Interest, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/Soref2011Proceedings.pdf]

Developments in the Middle East can be thought of in terms of … Washington even if they do not like the company it keeps.

The plan’s form of democracy assistance strikes a balance between our support for old a new regimes, which is essential to maintain our alliances

Amitai Etzioni, Fall 2011, Middle East Quarterly, "Toward a nonviolent. pluralistic middle east," Vol 18, Issue 5. Proquest

A Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East. The lesson of Libya can be generalized … the use of force - suffices for becoming a reliable ally.

China is vying for influence in the Middle East – this undercuts the U.S. by stealing our allies

David Schenker and Christina Lin, 11/16/10, LA Times, "China's rise in the Middle East,"

The reach of the People’s Republic is far and wide, extending from the Far East to Africa to Latin America, … strategic role in the Middle East for the United States.

The plan solidifies our role in the Middle East – the alternative is energy insecurity. Now is the time to peacefully crowd China out

Peter Kiernan, 5/12/08, World Politics Review, "West must learn to manage China's growing Middle East influence,"

China's strategy, therefore, is to non-confrontationally and indirectly place limitations on the United States' … ease away from their political dependence on Washington.

Chinese influence in the Middle East leads to energy competition over Saudi Arabia

Wehrey et al ’10 [Frederic (Senior Policy Analyst at RAND), Dalia Kaye (Senior Political Scientist at RAND), Jessica Watkins (Political scientist at RAND), Jeffrey Martini (policy expert at RAND), & Robert Guffey (policy expert at RAND), “The Iraq Effect – The Middle East After the Iraq War,” ]

By any measure, China’s ties in the Middle East are growing… demand fails to keep pace with forecasts.

Energy competition will cause a war

Luft & Korin ‘4 [Gal (executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) & Anne (director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS), Mar, “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” ]

The Chinese also have at their disposal immense reserves of manpower,… At that point, as Napoleon foresaw, the world will surely tremble.

That causes nuclear energy wars

[Jim Cabral, “Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy”, Valley Advocate, 8-12-2010]

The preoccupation of states with securing the reliability of energy through exploration and extraction … increasing the risk that they will be caught in any conflagration."

Historical legacies cause miscalculation

Lieberthal, Professor of Political Science and William Davidson Professor of International Business at the University of Michigan, 05 [ Kenneth, “Preventing a War Over Taiwan”, March/April, http://websupport1.citytech.cuny.edu/Faculty/pparides/lieberthal.pdf]

Wars sometimes occur because of miscalculations …the Bush administration should move quickly.

And, Escalation will spiral out of control

Swaine, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment, [Asia Program] postdoctoral fellow at the University of Berkeley, 04 [Dr. Michael, “Trouble in Taiwan”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=view&id=1460]

A war with China over Taiwan would, … -- military action suggest that escalation might prove extremely difficult to control.

Adv 2

The SCAF is backlashing now – continued opposition will crush the transition

David Kramer, 12/29/11, Washington Post, "Stomping on human rights in Egypt,"

A months-long campaign against civil-society groups by Egypt’s military leadership came to a … society fought for and that was integral to ending Mubarak’s rule.

Public pressure can get concessions from the SCAF – solves backlash and the transition

Michael Hanna, 8/23/11, Foreign Policy, "The mind of Egypt's military,"

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been … referendum, its approach has been haphazard and riddled with indecision.

Specifically, technical assistance to civil society is vital to strengthen their capacity – ensuring reform after elections.

Amira Maaty, 4/29/11, Democracy Digest, "civil society a force in Egypt's democratization,"

In response to these limitations and challenges, … with NGOs from activists and groups in countries that have undertaken democratic transitions.

U.S. assistance is vital to the transition and gets the SCAF on board with reform

Esposito 10/26/11

 John Esposito University Professor as well as Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, John L. Esposito is Founding Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. Esposito has served as consultant to the U.S. Department of State and other agencies, European and Asian governments and corporations, universities, and the media worldwide.

The Way Forward We live in a changing multi-polar world that requires, … dealing with pro-democracy forces, let's walk the way we have talked.

Only we solve the transition – any backlash is overwhelmed by support generated by the plan

Schenker 7/25/11

 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories.

 As Egypt approaches this crossroads, Washington must take steps to nudge Egypt …who have lived for more than a half century under military rule, for a transition to a democratic system. 

Technical assistance to civil societies is crucial to the transition

POMED, 11 (Project On Middle East Democracy, POMED Notes: “The Role of Civil Society in a New Egypt” March 25, 2011, )

Before asking panelists to remark on the situation in Egypt, John Page noted that in Egypt, Tunisia, … and as such these groups are undergoing a transition of their own as they shift from opposing the government to partnering with it.

Continued SCAF consolidation will cause blowback against the military, driving the country into chaos

Trager 11-8 (Eric, Weiner Fellow – Washington Institute and Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pennsylvania, “Tensions Grow between Egypt's Military Leaders and the Muslim Brotherhood”, Washington Institute PolicyWatch #1868, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3419)

The SCAF's pursuit of greater control over the transition is not surprising -- … that could drive Egypt toward further chaos.

The alternative is a radical Egypt which will overthrow the SCAF and lock the US out of the region – igniting every fuse in the Middle East.

Wood 2011, (David, Chief Military Correspondent, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East,” 2-05-11, )

Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division plummeted from a cobalt Egyptian sky… That should serve as a cautionary tale.''

Arab Spring means high likelihood of Middle East war – specifically in regards to Iran

Rahnema, 12-11-11

(Saeed, Dr. Rahnema is professor of political science at York University. He has served as the Director of the School of Public Policy and Administration, and Coordinator of the political science program at Atkinson Faculty, School of Social Sciences, at York Univerity. Before joining York University, he was an Associate Professor in the School of policy studies at Queen’s University. In his homeland Iran, he taught and worked as a member of the executive of the Industrial Management Institute in Tehran, He has served as a Senior Officer of the UNDP, Director of the Middle East Economic Association (MEEA), Editor of the MEEA Newsletter, and an editorial board member of several journals“Playing with Fire in the Middle East”, , DOA: 12-12-11)

The Middle East has been aptly referred to as a powder … Iranian military installations continue to take place.

War with Iran would quickly escalate, crush the global economy, turn back the Arab Spring, and draw in Russia and China

Rahnema, 12-11-11

(Saeed, Dr. Rahnema is professor of political science at York University. He has served as the Director of the School of Public Policy and Administration, and Coordinator of the political science program at Atkinson Faculty, School of Social Sciences, at York Univerity. Before joining York University, he was an Associate Professor in the School of policy studies at Queen’s University. In his homeland Iran, he taught and worked as a member of the executive of the Industrial Management Institute in Tehran, He has served as a Senior Officer of the UNDP, Director of the Middle East Economic Association (MEEA), Editor of the MEEA Newsletter, and an editorial board member of several journals“Playing with Fire in the Middle East”, , DOA: 12-12-11)

The best-case scenario for Iran would obviously be for the Islamic regime, … it can implement some version of a Libyan scenario in Iran. All sides are simply wrong.

Limited Middle East nuclear war guarantees extinction

Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers

SAN FRANCISCO -- With superpower nuclear arsenals plummeting to a third of … biggest volcanic eruptions in recent history, according to Rutgers' Robock.

1AR - Stability adv

Crackdowns takeout CP solvency – only plan avoids

Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011, )

A history of influence American organizations, …  participating, pilloried in the media through campaigns organized by the government.

2AC – Cred adv

Statistics prove demo assist works

Seligson, et al. 6 – Mitchell, Centennial professor of political science, Vanderbilt University

[EFFECTS OF U.S. FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ON DEMOCRACY BUILDING: Results of a Cross-National Quantitative Study, http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/democracy_and_governance/publications/pdfs/impact_of_democracy_assistance.pdf]cs

First, our descriptive review determined first, that …. All of the models that we have estimated to control for both omitted variable bias as well as for the potential endogeneity of AID obligations only strengthened the original finding.

Egyptians won’t backlash against assistance to civil society

Chatham House, April 2011, "Egypt in Transition,"

Egyptians would like to remake their relationships with … development of new civil society organizations and structures.

No Kiss of death

Shadi Hamid 10-1-11, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1

. During the Bush Administration, when anti-American sentiment spread like wildfire across the Middle East … at the precise moment that doing something would be most effective.

1AR - Stability adv

Crackdowns takeout CP solvency – only plan avoids

Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011, )

A history of influence American organizations, …  participating, pilloried in the media through campaigns organized by the government.

2AC AT: PRIVATE INVESTOR CP

The counterplan can’t solve and links to politics

Dobransky 11 (Steve, Adjunct Professor of Political Science – Cleveland State University, and MA – Ohio University, “The Coming Crisis in U.S. Foreign Aid: Policy Options for the 21st Century”, American Diplomacy, 3-7, )

Policy Option #6: Promote Private Organizations in addition to USAID …. Just witness the government’s experience with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

CP won’t be perceived as strong federal action

Rigby 9 (Elizabeth, Professor of Political Science – University of Houston, “Tax Credits vs. Spending: Why Progressives Should Care How the Stimulus is Delivered”, Huffington Post, 1-5, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-rigby/tax-credits-vs-spending-w_b_155389.html)

Similarly, since even successful tax expenditures are rarely … would limit later efforts to build on the initial investment.

Visible USAID funds are key to credibility in Egypt

Ebeld 7

(Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, http://www.arabinsight.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)

The recent revisions of USAID activity priorities … an opportunity to improve the Egyptian public’s perception of the United States.

Credibility in the Middle East assures Japan’s confidence in the nuclear umbrella

Amitai Etzioni, March-April 2011, Military Review, "The coming test of U.S. credibility,"

American allies in other regions are also consumed by doubts….  under Chatham House rules, which allow one to use the information provided, but not to cite the source or venue.)

Japan’s confidence prevents rearm – that causes nuclear war

Mr. Feith (AND), a former under secretary of defense for policy (2001-05), is the author of “War and Decision: Inside the Pentagon at the Dawn of the War on Terrorism” (HarperCollins, 2008). Mr. Shulsky is a former Defense Department official who dealt with arms control issues. Both are senior fellows at the Hudson Institute.  WSJ, “Why Revive the Cold War?”  August 3, 2009.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204313604574328430978849134.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

There is an important connection between proliferation risks … it might be one of the costliest mistakes ever.

COUNTERPLAN WOULD BE POLITICAL SUICIDE

Mankiw, prof of economics @ Harvard, 2007

(Greg, An Alternative to Foreign Aid, October 20,

)

Justin Muzinich and Eric Werker (the latter an assistant professor at Harvard Business School)… "outsource American jobs to third-world sweatshops tax credit."

No risk of nuclear terrorism.

Levi 2008  (Michael, fellow @ CFR.  USA Today, “Fear and the nuclear terror threat.”  Jan 9.  Lexis.)

Here's the reality. The nuclear threat is real and deserves our utmost attention. An atomic bomb detonated in the heart of a major … but we should be smart about making it even harder.

Conditionality is bad. Multiple worlds force the aff into double turns. It destroys 2AC strategy because the neg can read counterplans with net benefits that aren’t intrinsic to the aff, and any offense read against that net benefit becomes moot. Dispo solves your all your offense because it allows for 2AC flex. Justifies cheating perms because the negs advocacy is unpredictable, so perm: do the cp. It’s a voter for comp equity. Reject the team for bad debating practices.

1AR CP Solvency Deficit

The CP causes infighting between NGO’s

Rana Lehr-Lehnardt 5, assistant law prof at UMKC, “NGO Legitimacy: Reassessing Democracy, Accountability and Transparency”, 4-16,

Private funding is also problematic. …This can lead to exaggerated claims of wrongdoing or simply an unfair amount of press on a single issue at the expense of other more pressing issues.

Philanthropy alone can’t solve

Nelson, 2011

(Anne, Anne Nelson is an international media consultant, Continental shift: new trends in private U.S. funding for media development, December)

The field of private sector funding of … with few resources to pursue new initiatives.

CP won’t be perceived as strong federal action

Rigby 9 (Elizabeth, Professor of Political Science – University of Houston, “Tax Credits vs. Spending: Why Progressives Should Care How the Stimulus is Delivered”, Huffington Post, 1-5, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-rigby/tax-credits-vs-spending-w_b_155389.html)

Similarly, since even successful tax expenditures …and abuse that would limit later efforts to build on the initial investment

2AC AT: Payroll Tax Cuts

Won’t pass – no momentum

Kathleen Hunter and Steven Sloan. 1-19-12. “U.S. Payroll Tax-Cut Conferees Standing Firm on Differences.” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-19/u-s-payroll-tax-cut-conferees-standing-firm-on-differences.html.

Congressional negotiators are refusing to budge … decisions to make before the short-term extension expires Feb. 29.

Solyrnda’s back – costs PC

Maria Gallucci. 1-20-12. “This Week in Clean Economy: Dueling Solyndra Ads Foreshadow Energy-Centric Campaign.” http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20120120/clean-economy-week-2012-elections-ads-solyndra-obama-americans-for-prosperity-koch-wind-ptc-subsidy-vestas.

How much political capital … dollars in federal loan guarantees before going belly-up in August.

Egypt aid is popular – Obama won’t have to push, Kerry and Graham will

Emily Cadei, 3/3/11, Congress.org, "Democracy funding may be squeezed,"

At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the fiscal 2012 budget, … as Egypt, Tunisia and, potentially, Libya.

Graham is key to reducing opposition – means Obama won’t spend capital

Scott Horton, 2/17/10, Harper's Magazine, "The all-powerful Lindsey Graham and the principle of freedom,"

Two recent articles examining the legal policy of the Obama White House have concluded … Lindsey Graham has become “all powerful.”

The plan is a win – boosts PC

Lane 11

(Charles, Washington Post editorial writer, “Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt”, 2-15-11, )

I know we’re not supposed to think about foreign policy in such crass political terms. …  major investment of his administration’s time and energy in Egypt over the rest of his term.

Our interpretation of fiat is that the aff only has to defend the world of the plan and not the antecedent to the plan. Antecedent arguments focus debate on how fiat functions rather than the desirability of the affirmative, which unfairly expands negative ground. Conversely, antecedent fiat is bad for the negative because the affirmative can always change how the plan is implemented and claim advantages which the negative could never be prepared for.

It won’t have a meaningful impact

David Lawder 9/9/11. “Analysis: Payroll tax cuts seen doable, but boost modest.” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/09/us-obama-jobs-economy-idUSTRE7881C920110909.

Passage would add about 0.7 to 0.8 percentage … of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

Recession proves there is no impact

Barnett 2009 – WPR columnist and editor for Esquire, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions (8/24, Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/4213/the-new-rules-security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis)

When the global financial crisis struck … the fantastic fear-mongering to proceed apace. That's what the Internet is for.

1AR PLTX UQ

Won’t pass – Keystone rider

Molly K. Hooper. 1-20-12. “Republicans will try to reverse Keystone decision in next payroll tax cut deal.” http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/205405-gop-will-try-to-reverse-keystone-decision-in-next-payroll-tax-deal.

BALTIMORE — Republicans will try to include…meets for the first time Tuesday.

2AC AT: SCAF DA

Plan wouldn’t trigger more SCAF backlash

Andrew Quinn, 12/30/11, Reuters, "Egypt assures US no more raids on democracy groups,"

Egyptian officials have assured the United States they will halt raids on pro-democracy … world in support of democracy and free elections," Nuland said.

SCAF collapse inevitable without the aff – only thing that causes an Egypt/Israel war

Arieh O'Sullivan, 8/25/11, The MidEast News Source, "Egypt's Reluctant Rulers,"

The call has gone out for a million protesters to converge on the Israeli embassy … said one senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

2AC AT: Coercion

No moral absolutism – even for libertarians

Friedman, Political Science at Bernard University, 97

(Jefferey, "What's Wrong with Libertarianism," Critical Review, Volume: 3, pg 449-450)

Kelley’s book serves this purpose by placing the two mainstays of … the rigid libertarian refusal to deviate from them under any circumstances.

There is no one single criteria for establishing a value to life- you don’t have a root cause claim.

Digiovanna 2000, Augustine G. Health and Human Aging, Biological Perspectives, 2nd addition. (From a textbook published by the McGraw-Hill Higher Education company) pg. 20-21

Quality of life can be evaluated in several ways…, mean longevity, and how much contribution elders can make to society.

2AC AT: Orientalism

Our framework is that negative arguments must assume a world of affirmative fiat. The role of the ballot is an intellectual endorsement for or against the plan based off of a consequentialist calculus established in the 1AC. That is best because it preserves aff ground. Anything else puts us nine minutes behind and is a voter for fairness.

Orientalist theory is wrong about the Middle East. The aff is a disad to the alt

Warraq ‘7

(Ibn, Founder of the Institute for the Secularisation of Islamic Study and senior research fellow at the Center for Inquiry, “Defending the West: A Critique of Edward Said’s Orientalism” pg. 49-50)

For a number of years now, …  his account of classical Western Orientalism really is."72

The alt is essentialist and can’t solve the case – prefer Egypt specific evidence

Ahadi and Masazi 7/26/11

 Mina Ahadi (short biography in German) was born in Iran in 1956. She started her political activities by setting up discussion clubs and performances when she was only 14. She was actively involved as a university student in the 1979 Iranian revolution. When the Islamic government gained power and Khomeini issued a fatwa for compulsory Islamic veiling, she organised meetings and demonstrations against the government. Mina is the founder and coordinator of the International Committees against Execution and Stoning. Mina Ahadi has lived in Europe since 1990. Recently she has founded the Central Council of Ex-Muslims to expose Islamic laws and its affects on people. She is currently under police protection for her ctivities.

 In reality, however, ‘doctrine’ alone was not the reason behind the brutal Islamic … modern and human Middle East and North Africa. 

We control uniqueness – violence declining because of Western civilization and growth

Pinker, Prof Psychology – Harvard, 3/19/‘7

(Steven, “A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE,” The New Republic)

In the decade of Darfur and Iraq, and shortly after the century of Stalin, …  number of wars, military coups, and deadly ethnic riots.

Method focus causes endless paradigm wars

Wendt, professor of international security – Ohio State University, ‘98

(Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association)

As a community, we in the academic study of international politics spend too much time worrying about the … is often one-sided, intolerant caricatures of science.

The alternative text should have an end point, it should not be an ongoing movement or transition.

1) They eliminate the ability of the 2AC to get offense because we don't know our ground and don't know the end point of the alt.

2) It's a moving target because the alternative can shift in the block, which crushes predictability for the 2AC, which is key to check the length of the block against the 1AR.

3) Any claim that alt solves the aff makes it a Floating PIK – uniquely bad when made in the block because the 2AC can’t predict the shift.

4) It justifies severance and intrinsic permutations to check back against block clarifications of the argument so perm: do the alt.

5) It's a voter for competitive equity.

Now is make or break for Obama’s democracy agenda – Egypt is key.

Democracy Digest, 1/13/12, "Obama's reclaimed, revitalized democracy policy," http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/obamas-reclaimed-revitalized-democracy-policy/

While the administration subsequently launched a series of

AND

to the Cairo raids, the meeting heard.

Aggressive US support for Egyptian democracy is key- it’s a test case for US democracy policy- failure to engage is perceived as abandonment

Jim Jones et al, 10/12/11, Bipartisan Policy Center, "Bipartisan Policy Center Releases Groundbreaking Economic and Public Diplomacy Recommendations for U.S. Policymakers to Enhance Relations with Egypt and Offer a Path Forward for Democracy," http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/news/press-releases/2011/10/bipartisan-policy-center-releases-groundbreaking-economic-and-public-dip

“Where Egypt goes – whether it remains

AND

region—in the coming months and years.

The plan sends a global signal – key to stop democratic backsliding worldwide

Arch Puddington, January 2012, Freedom House, "Freedom in the world 2011: Full Report Essay - The Arab Uprisings and their global repercussions," http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2012/full-report-essay

The political uprisings that swept across the Arab

AND

calls for “stability” at any price.

Signaling support for democratic transitions is key to maintaining the liberal international order – only the US can solve.

Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

AND

are congenial to its long-term security.

US liberal leadership sustains international institutions and cooperation – solves all global problems and conflict – there is not alternative.

Kromah 9

(Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

Since the end of WWII the United States

AND

without a broad measure of international security.57

Failure to expand the liberal international system causes nuclear war

Dyer 4

Gwynne, staff writer, Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

War is deeply embedded in our history and

AND

within the context of the existing state system.

Specifically, abandonment of Egypt causes backsliding in Ukraine and Burma

Democracy Digest, 1/20/12, "Hands off NGOs, Obama tells Egypt junta," http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/hands-off-ngos-obama-tells-egypts-junta/

It happens that Freedom House, NDI,

AND

to our relations with the regime abusing them.

American retreat from Ukraine spurs Russian imperialism

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jan/Feb 2012, Foreign Policy, "8 geopolitically endangered species," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/8_geopolitically_endangered_species?page=full

UKRAINE Kiev's relationship with Moscow has been as

AND

stake: The renewal of Russian imperial ambitions.

Global nuclear war

Ariel Cohen, 1-25-97, Ph.D, Senior Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation Reports,

Much is at stake in Eurasia  for the

AND

the benefit of both Western and local economies.

Burma is slowly democratizing now – that is key to prevent proliferation

Gamage, 2012

(Dava, Burma developing nuclear capabilities: Is US-Burma thaw connected to it?, January 1,

http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2011/12/31/burma-developing-nuclear-capabilities-us-burma-thaw-connected-it)

The Obama administration through secretary of state Hillary

AND

research reactor from Russia is also well documented.

A reversion to authoritarianism would ignite Burma’s nuclear program

Shanan Farmer (et al), Alex Roesler and Christina McDonnell. (The authors are National Security Fellows at the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University) 6/7/11, Asia Times, "Keys to nudge Myanmar off nuclear target," http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MF07Ae01.html

The spread of nuclear weapons to an increasing

AND

that nuclear weapons provide status and political influence.

That triggers Asian instability and a war with North Korea

Andrew Selth, November 12, 2007, (Selth is a Research Fellow at the Griffith Asia Insistute. He has studied Asian affairs and international security for 35 years), Griffith Asia Institute, "Burma and nuclear proliferation: policies and perceptions," http://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/18240/regional-outlook-volume-12.pdf

Thailand is nervous about the regime’s apparent wish

AND

interest in WMD could have much wider implications.

War with North Korea causes extinction

Hayes and Green, 10 - *Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5,

http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf]

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation

AND

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.