Aff: Wayne JM

Round #2

Vs NYU AG

Weiner (not Anthony)

Plan text: USFG should substantially increase tech assistance to the Egyptian Freedom and Justice party through MEPI

Advantages:

Muslim relations (Terrorism)

NATO

Asian stability

2AC Offense

Threats real

Aff solves china relations

Realism inevitable

1AR strategy

Realism inevitable

Threats real

2AR strategy

Threats real

Cede the political 

ShirleyContention 1 is Inherency

First, there is no substantive dialogue in the SQ.

The Gazette 11-4-11 (AFP, U.S. hints it would not object to Brotherhood win in Egypt, http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/hints+would+object+Brotherhood+Egypt/5659473/story.html, jj)

WASHINGTON - The United States would be "satisfied" if fair parliamentary elections in Egypt produced

…

"This is something that we are used to, and should not be afraid of. We should deal with them," he said of Islamist parties that come to power.

And, the Middle East Partnership Initiative is underfunded now – funding restrictions still intact.

McInerney ‘11 (Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, July, POMED, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf, jj)

Throughout much of this year, …

and governance programming.2

1AC Plan Text

Thus, we present the following plan:

The United States federal government should substantially increase technical assistance to the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party through the Middle East Partnership Initiative.

Advantage 1 is Muslim Relations

First, US favoritism of liberal secularism is the root cause of Muslim resentment towards the West – Providing democracy funding to the Muslim Brotherhood signals a shift in the relationship

Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)

On the ten-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, …

become more amicable.

And, this outweighs other sources of Anti-Americanism

Hamid ‘10 (Shadi, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, jj)

Anti-American anger, …

at the expense of other interests and ideals—particularly in Egypt.

Additionally, Unequivocal and clear funding is key to solve

HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)

Over more than three decades since the Camp David Accords, …

, to which the U.S. government should contribute.

And, It’s the best way to challenge radical Islamic terrorism – helps win hearts and minds

Hamid, Director Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘7 (Shadi, June, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy” Progressive Policy Institute, http://www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf)

In light of the growing schism between mainstream Islamists and their radical counterparts,…

. That window, however, is now closed.

Specifically, it prevents terrorist WMD use against the United States and prevents escalation in multiple hotspots

Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16)

Improving relations with …

critical challenges abroad.

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

To an increasing extent, …

present scenarios and physical outcomes.

And, it escalates to nuclear war with Russia and China.

Ayson ’10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]

A terrorist nuclear attack, …

This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

We outweigh their impacts on probability

Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and …

of accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”

Advantage 2 is Global Moderation

First, the US must allow the Muslim Brotherhood to receive MEPI funding in order to demonstrate renewed seriousness with engagement

Hamid ‘10 (Shadi, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, jj)

Meanwhile, the Middle East Partnership Initiative…

—before it comes to power, rather than afterward, when it will be too late.

And, beginning with Egypt’s Brotherhood creates a starting point for further cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region

Stacher, Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘7 (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe, http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)

According to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, …

in the region than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.

That creates a global model for extremist moderation

Phillips 11 (David L., Director of the Program on Peacebuilding and Rights – Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights, “Talking to the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt”, Daily News of Egypt, 3-30, http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/columnists/talking-to-the-muslim-brotherhood-of-egypt.html)

The Obama administration cannot ignore that …

the Brotherhood can become a model for fanatical groups moderating their ideology and becoming constructively involved in democratic governance.

This solves multiple scenarios for extinction:

Scenario 1 is Turkey

Egypt policy spills over to build cooperation with Turkey

Freeman 7 (Chas W., Director – Atlantic Council and Former U.S. Ambassador – Saudi Arabia, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II)”, The Globalist, 8-21, http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=6314)

It is clear that the United States …

as key countries like Nigeria.

It’s unique - Turkey’s sliding toward radical Islam

Maginnis 8-18-11 (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant Colonel and National Security Analyst, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, Human Events, 2011, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45588)

Second, Turkey is on a glide path to become an anti-American Islamist state. …

poorly for American influence.

Moderating Turkish Islamism is vital to NATO effectiveness

Inbar 11 (Efraim, Professor of Political Studies – Bar-Ilan University and Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and their International Ramifications”, Orbis, Winter, p. 145)

Turkey’s new positioning will …

transfer to Iran.

NATO solves nuclear war

Brzezinski 09 [ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, 2009, U.S. National Security Adviser from 1977 to 1981. His most recent book is Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower, September 2009 - October 2009, (Foreign Affairs, SECTION: Pg. 2 Vol. 88 No. 5, HEADLINE: An Agenda for NATO Subtitle: Toward a Global Security Web, p. Lexis)]

ADJUSTING TO A TRANSFORMED WORLD

AND YET, it is fair to ask: Is nato living up to its extraordinary potential? …

the West more generally.

Scenario 2 is Indonesia

A perceived war against Islam is causing anti-American resentment in Indonesia to skyrocket

Labott, Senior State Department Producer, 9-7-11 (Outreach yields little improvement in Muslim view of US, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/07/outreach-yields-little-improvement-in-muslim-view-of-us/)

But with a few exceptions,…

: "It's the policies, stupid."

The aff solves this and quells terrorism throughout Southeast Asia

Kay, Fellow – Pacific Forum - CSIS, 05(Indonesian Public Perceptions of the U.S. and Their Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, Pacific Forum CSIS, Issues & Insights Vol.5–No.4)

This paper aims to analyze influences on public opinion among …

radicalism to flourish in Southeast Asia.

Anti-Americanism in Indonesia crushes Asian stability

Kay, Fellow – Pacific Forum - CSIS, 05(Indonesian Public Perceptions of the U.S. and Their Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, Pacific Forum CSIS, Issues & Insights Vol.5–No.4, jj)

The final U.S. interest is broadly defined regional concerns……

. A pro-active U.S. foreign policy that addresses negative perceptions of the U.S. will provide the foundation for closer U.SIndonesia relations.

This causes world war

Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill,  ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n

As well as knitting them, however, …

, Taiwan and Pakistan.

The impact is extinction

Toshimura Ogura, Economics Professor -- Toyama University, MONTHLY REVIEW, April 1997, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/is_n11_v48/ai_19693242/pg_8 Monthly Review, findarticles.com

North Korea, South Korea, and Japan have achieved …

to escalate into a global conflagration.

The MB will say yes to US assistance creating influence with Islamist groups around the world – Say no arguments are based on an outdated monolithic understanding of the MB

Husain, Senior Fellow at CFR, 11 (4/5, Feuding Brothers, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/05/feuding_brothers?page=full)

I was in Cairo to understand that confusing silence….

. Islamists can change.

And, they can’t win a disad to engaging the Brotherhood---status quo contacts trigger disad links but don’t solve the aff.

Brown August 9th, 2011 (Nathan J, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and a nonresident senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the National Interest, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?”

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721?page=1, jj)

This awkward …

in Egypt as well.

Contention Two

Causal chains in the 1AC verify our truth claims – assumptions about the world are validated by the results of our research and analysis – our form of knowledge does not produce value claims it is the result of validated value claims*

Fluck, PhD in International Politics from Aberystwyth, ’10 (Matthew, November, “Truth, Values and the Value of Truth in Critical International Relations Theory” Millennium Journal of International Studies, Vol 39 No 2, SagePub)

Critical Realists arrive at their understanding of truth …

about social reality.

Act to save the most lives – imperfect knowledge doesn’t justify inaction

Cowen ‘04 (Tyler, Professor of Economics – George Mason University, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism”, 11-2, http://www.gmu.edu/jbc/Tyler/Epistemic2.pdf, p. 14-15)

The epistemic critique relies heavily …

obvious importance.

Policymaking necessitates consequentialism

Brock 87
 [Dan W. Brock, Professor of Philosophy and Biomedical Ethics, and Director, Center for Biomedical Ethics at Brown University, Ethics, Vol. 97, No. 4, (Jul., 1987), pp. 786-791, JSTOR]JFS

When philosophers become…

, why did they enter the policy domain? What are they doing there?

And, Moving away from anti-politics  = vital to check every day problems and macro-issue that risk serious atrocity.

Small ‘6

(Jonathan, former Americorps VISTA for the Human Services Coalition,  “Moving Forward,” The Journal for Civic Commitment,  Spring, http://www.mc.maricopa.edu/other/engagement/Journal/Issue7/Small.jsp)

What will be the challenges of the new millennium? …

Service learning may be our best chance to jumpstart our democracy. In the rest of this paper, we will look at the beginning stages of a project that seeks to do just that. 

Failure to prioritize detailed policy prescription cedes the public sphere to the most aggressive forces – makes perpetual war inevitable

Boggs 2000 (Carl Professor and Ph.D. Political Science, National University, Los Angeles, the end of politics, 250-1)

But it is a very deceptive and misleading minimalism.  …

Burkean muddling-through theories.

Libya CPlan: The Middle East Partnership Initiative should substantially increase all necessary judicial reform assistance for Libya.

Contention 1 – Civil War

A stable transition in Libya is underway now – However, lack of rule of law risks collapsing the nation

Henry Wilkinson/Associate director, Janusian, Gulf Times, October 23rd, http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/printArticle.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=465886&version=1&template_id=46&parent_id=26

The Arab Spring has brought dramatic changes right

AND

over hardship or political issues into open conflict.

Second - There is a dangerous inability for Libya to try detainees now

Youssef Boudlal, Reuters, August 30^th 2011, http://thetrendblog.com/4594/up-to-7000-held-in-libyan-prisons-u-n-says/

GENEVA (Reuters) – up to 7

AND

NTC said it would look into the report.

This uniquely creates the conditions for derailing the transition

Susan Brooks, Washington Post, 10/24/2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/guest-voices/post/why-does-it-matter-how-gaddafi-died/2011/10/24/gIQAOOyVCM_blog.html

As the United States has learned, the

AND

full and open investigation into how Gaddafi died.

That ensures civil war and warlordism

Hans-Inge Langø, Master’s degree in International Relations at Boston University and research assistant on defense budgeting issues for the Sustainable Defense Task Force and the Rivilin/Domenici Task Force, June 22^nd 2011, http://hegemonicobsessions.com/?p=522,

Regarding the former, the Libyan opposition has

AND

something that is undeniably necessary for rebuilding Libya.

Iraq proves – the status quo is a recipe for civil war

Borzou Daragahi, Financial Times, October 11th 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/026d371c-edea-11e0-a491-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bq60PYA9

Winning at least some of the colonel’s sympathisers

AND

even in their own minds about Gaddafi’s legacy.

Now is key – failure to change detention practices in Libya will lock in a culture of abuse guaranteeing instability

Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, May 21^st 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/libyan-rebels-accused-of-reprisal-attacks/2011/05/20/AFaeAh8G_story.html

With Libya essentially divided in half by conflict

AND

,” Wanis said, referring to the detentions.

Multiple Impacts – First - Global nuclear war – draws in Russia and China

Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)

Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that

AND

now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

Second – Instability in Libya causes global terrorism

David A Gordon, Program manager and a research assistant with the CSIS transnational threats project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Aadviser at the center for streategic and international studies, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

Another immediate counterterrorism challenge posed by the Arab

AND

to those who have yet to be radicalized.

The timeframe is 2013

Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the

AND

accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

To an increasing extent, people are congregating

AND

well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

And, it escalates to great power nuclear war

Ayson ’10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

AND

might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Third – Instability triggers massive oil shocks

Al-Shibeeb, 10/21/11 (Dina, “How will Qaddafi’s death affect oil prices and which region stands to benefit?” Al Arabiya News, http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/21/172953.html, bgm)

The global reaction to former Libyan leader Muammar

AND

to its 1.6 million bpd output.”

Two impacts –

A) It will collapse the global economy

Stelzer 11 (Irwin M., Contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London), 3/7, “A Libyan Oil Shock?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/libyan-oil-shock_552544.html?page=2)

But there is oil and there is oil

AND

reality of the nation’s continuing need for oil.

Economic crisis causes global wars

Royal, '10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction Program -- DOD, Economics of War & Peace: Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith & Brauer, p. 213-15)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

AND

economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

B) Libyan oil shock collapses the CCP

Liz Peek 11, The Fiscal Times, “Oil Price Surge: How Libya Threatens China Growth”, April 13, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/04/13/Oil-Price-Surge-How-Libya-Threatens-China-Growth.aspx

For China, though, the Libyan engagement

AND

“inflation tiger” back in its cage.

This is the most likely scenario for a US-China war

Susan L. Shrik, Professor in the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies @ The University of California, San Diego, “China: Fragile Superpower: How China’s Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise”, 2007, Pg 255

When President Hu Jintao met with President George

AND

and American decision makers avoid a catastrophic war.

US-China conflict leads to extinction

Straits Times 2k [Jun 25, LEXIS]

The high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

AND

, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

No alternative causalities – A functioning judicial system solves all the internal links to tribal infighting in Libya

David Tolbert, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice, 8/25/2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/

Looking to experiences spanning tectonic changes from Berlin

AND

the mind of all who speak of justice.

Human rights in the judicial system will be THE litmus test for the NTC

Mail and Guardian, October 1st 2011, http://mg.co.za/article/2011-10-01-the-litmus-test-for-libyas-new-rulers/

Human Rights Watch has called on Libya's new

AND

to torture and kill inmates in its prisons.

Contention 2 – US Credibility

US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya is the litmus test

Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)

Libya is perhaps the first of such “

AND

the Egyptian people. It seemed to work.

Libya is the test case for US leadership in the region – Inaction symbolizes US impotence crushing other movements

Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

The future of Libya was never terribly important

AND

, not to mention friendly to the West.

Legitimacy is key to hegemony

Finnemore 9 – Martha Finnemore, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, January 2009, “Legitimacy, Hypocrisy, and the Social Structure of Unipolarity: Why Being a Unipole Isn’t All It’s Cracked Up to Be,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1

The strength of a unipolar system depends heavily

AND

a unipole as building armies or bank accounts.

Hegemony solves all their impacts – collapse causes global nuclear war

Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136

 The jostling for status and influence among

AND

to draw the United States back in again.

AND there’s no alternative to American predominance – decline causes global instability

Kagan ’11 (Robert, 1-24, The Weekly Standard, Vol 16, No 18, “The Price of Power,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=2, jj)

Others have. For decades “realist”

AND

table and the table will not fall over. 

Transition wont be smooth – the US will cling to a false unipolar reality

David P. Calleo (University Professor at The Johns Hopkins University and Dean Acheson Professor at its Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)) 2009 “Follies of Power:  America’s Unipolar Fantasy” p. 4-5

It is tempting to believe that America’s recent

AND

with one another, the world grows dangerous.

Contention 3 – Solvency

Plan Solves – Libyan requesting training and assistance for their judicial system

Brunei Times, October 19th 2011, http://www.bt.com.bn/features/2011/10/19/jedaida-would-be-model-prison-new-libya

Earlier this month, Human Rights Watch asked

AND

We need help and resources," he said.

Assistance is key to an impartial judiciary in Libya

Peter Bouckaert is emergencies director of Human Rights Watch, “Human rights must be cornerstone of Libya's law”, CNN, October 20th 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-10-20/opinion/opinion_bouckaert-human-rights-libya_1_sirte-gadhafi-s-libya-national-transitional-council?_s=PM:OPINION

Libya's new leaders have an extraordinary opportunity to

AND

new Libya based on human rights for all.

US must take the lead

John McCain, Republican senator from Arizona. Mr. Graham is a Republican senator from South Carolina. Mr. Kirk is a Republican senator from Illinois. Mr. Rubio is a Republican senator from Florida, October 7th 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203388804576613293623346516.html

Another area where we can play a vital

AND

transparent and accountable system to deliver equal justice.

MEPI can provide judicial assistance  – Jordan proves

MEPI, Last updated 2011, http://mepi.state.gov/med-region/jordan/

MEPI is advancing democratic values and reforms similar

AND

by President Obama in Cairo in June 2009.

MEPI has been successful at judicial training in Libya

Telegraph, Jan 31^st 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/libya-wikileaks/8294575/HERE-COMES-THE-JUDGE-LIBYAN-JUDGES-RESPOND-POSITIVELY-TO-AMERICAN-JUDGES-WORKSHOP-ON-ARBITRATION.html

1. (C ) Summary: Under

AND

U.S. companies operating in Libya.

Plan: The Middle East Partnership Initiative should substantially increase all necessary judicial reform assistance for Libya.

Contention 1 – Civil War

Libya lacks the capacity to hold trials for thousands of detainees

Lamb, 11/25/11 (Franklin P. LLM, PhD, Director, Americans Concerned for Middle East Peace, Wash.DC-Beirut, “Will the UN insist on Fair Trials for Ex-Regime Loyalists in Libya?” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/11/25/will-the-un-insist-on-fair-trials-for-ex-1)

The above events, the … for high profile former regime loyalists.

That’s unfortunate – success of these trials is key to future trials and the rule of law

Jawat, 11/23/11 (Rana, BBC, “Trial of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi will test Libya justice,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15864948, bgm)

Libya's transitional authorities come … new authorities and the judicial system.

No alternative causalities – A functioning judicial system solves all the internal links to tribal infighting in Libya

David Tolbert, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice, 8/25/2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/

Looking to experiences spanning tectonic … mind of all who speak of justice.

Effective justice is a trump card – outweighs everything

Tupaz and Wagner, 11/10/11 (Edsel, professor of international and comparative law at De La Salle University and Far Eastern University and senior executive assistant of the Philippine Truth Commission created by Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, and founding CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk consultancy based in Connecticut and has more than 20 years of experience managing country risk, is an authority on political risk insurance and analysis, and has 15 years of underwriting experience with AIG, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), GE, and the World Bank Group, “Ensuring Justice in Transitional Libya,” http://jurist.org/sidebar/2011/11/tupaz-wagner-libya-transition.php, bgm)

Amidst the rising vigilantism and score-settling … irreconcilable precedent for Libya.

Multiple Impacts – First - Global nuclear war – draws in Russia and China

Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)

Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners … now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

Second – Instability in Libya causes global terrorism

David A Gordon, Program manager and a research assistant with the CSIS transnational threats project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Aadviser at the center for streategic and international studies, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

Another immediate counterterrorism challenge … who have yet to be radicalized.

The timeframe is 2013

Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the necessary … accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

To an increasing extent, people are congregating … present scenarios and physical outcomes.

And, it escalates to great power nuclear war

Ayson ’10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons … might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Third – Instability triggers massive oil shocks

Al-Shibeeb, 10/21/11 (Dina, “How will Qaddafi’s death affect oil prices and which region stands to benefit?” Al Arabiya News, http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/21/172953.html, bgm)

The global reaction to former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s … Libya so that it can get back to its 1.6 million bpd output.”

That collapses the global economy

Stelzer 11 (Irwin M., Contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London), 3/7, “A Libyan Oil Shock?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/libyan-oil-shock_552544.html?page=2)

But there is oil and there is oil, just as there is coal … the reality of the nation’s continuing need for oil.

Economic crisis causes global wars

Royal, '10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction Program -- DOD, Economics of War & Peace: Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith & Brauer, p. 213-15)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline … economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Contention 2 – Credibility

US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya is the litmus test

Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)

Libya is perhaps the first of such “good” … seemed to work.

Libya is the test case for US leadership in the region – Inaction symbolizes US impotence and kills credibility of our security guarantees

Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

The future of Libya was never terribly important … not to mention friendly to the West.

Retreat from regional leadership leads to great power conflict and Iranian adventurism

Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136

The subtraction of American power from any region … likely to draw the United States back in again.

Nuclear war

Alon Ben-Meir, 2007 (“Ending Iran's defiance American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iranian regime”, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html, accessed 6/25/10)

The fact that Iran stands today able to challenge … consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Contention 3 – ICC Credibility

The ICC and Libya are fighting over jurisdiction for the trial of Saif al-Islam – The ICC claims Libya lacks the judicial institutions to try him locally - They will make a ruling for a trial at The Hague

ALEX Newman, New American, November 22nd 2011, http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/africa-mainmenu-27/9891-libyan-regime-and-icc-argue-over-trial-of-gadhafis-son

But the ICC has not given up yet as its chief … to the regime, as were other elites in the United Kingdom.

Even though Libya lacks the capacity for a trial a ruling for The Hague kills ICC credibility – Countries on the fence will permanently hold out and others will opt out of the statute

Ghalambor, 11/25/11 (Kimia, associate editor of the UCLA Law Forum and 2L at UCLA School of Law, “Should Saif al-Islam Gaddafi be tried by the National Transitional Council of Libya or by the International Criminal Court?” http://uclalawforum.com/forum/permalink/71/969, bgm)

The ICC should allow Libya to try Saif al-Islam … welcome international monitors over Saif’s trial.

And, even if the trial stays local it will fail – also crushing ICC cred

Sterio, 11/23/11 (Milena, Assistant Professor of Law at the Cleveland-Marshall College of Law, “Does Libya Have the "Right" To Prosecute Gadhafi's Son?” http://intlawandpolitics.blogspot.com/2011/11/does-libya-have-right-to-prosecute.html, bgm)

Is Moreno-Ocampo's decision advantageous … Moreno-Ocampo may forever regret his decision.

ICC cred key to stop extinction

Krieger, ’02 (David, Current President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and former Professor at the University of Hawaii and San Francisco State University, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/07/10_krieger_law-force.htm)

An important marker of civilization has always … most uncompromising fashion support disarmament all around….”

A credible ICC prevents multiple scenarios for global conflict and failed states

Bruggeman, ’05 (Willy, Professor of Police Science at the Benelux University and Chair of the Belgian Federal Police Board, “The ICC as an important partner in enhancing global justice,” 1/27, http://english.safe-democracy.org/confronting/the-icc-as-an-important-partner-in-enhancing-global-justice.html, bgm)

Specific politico-military challenges stand … sides of the Atlantic for some months now.

Contention 4 – Solvency

US should give judicial assistance to the NTC – key to stability and rule of law

Bellinger, 11/22/11 (John III, adjunct senior fellow in international and national security law at the Council on Foreign Relations and partner with Arnold and Porter LLP, “Regime trials belong in Libya’s courts,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trials-of-moammar-gaddafis-favored-few-belong-in-libyas-courts/2011/11/22/gIQANU4WmN_story.html, bgm)

The weekend capture of Moammar Gaddafi’s son … the international community should support their efforts.

Assistance is key to an impartial judiciary in Libya

Peter Bouckaert is emergencies director of Human Rights Watch, “Human rights must be cornerstone of Libya's law”, CNN, October 20th 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-10-20/opinion/opinion_bouckaert-human-rights-libya_1_sirte-gadhafi-s-libya-national-transitional-council?_s=PM:OPINION

Libya's new leaders have an extraordinary opportunity … build a new Libya based on human rights for all.

Only the US can prevent other powers from playing spoiler in Libya

Grygiel, 10/6/11 (Dr Jakub, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, Democracy Digest, “Democracy promotion – a geostrategic contest” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/democracy-promotion-a-geostrategic-contest/)

Finally, we cannot outsource democracy promotion … geopolitical consequences of their actions.

Plan: The Middle East Partnership Initiative should substantially increase all necessary judicial reform assistance for Libya.

Contention One: The Status Quo

The aftermath of the NATO intervention in Libya and Gaddafi’s overthrow has prompted ethnic cleansing and ongoing genocide against black Libyans – The Wests refusal to act highlights an ongoing indifference toward this systemic violence that we’re responsible for creating

Alex Newman, American freelance writer and the president of Liberty Sentinel Media Inc., a media consulting firm, “Libyan Rebels Accused of "Ethnic Cleansing," Black Genocide”, Sept 15th 2011,  http://thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/africa-mainmenu-27/9005-libyan-rebels-accused-of-ethnic-cleansing-black-genocide

NATO and U.S.-backed rebel

AND

regime could be even worse than the last.

These retaliations lock-in vigilante justice as the only way for Libyans to settle problems

Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, May 21st 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/libyan-rebels-accused-of-reprisal-attacks/2011/05/20/AFaeAh8G_story.html

With Libya essentially divided in half by conflict

AND

,” Wanis said, referring to the detentions.

Vigilante justice rips societies apart and create never-ending cycles of violence culminating in total destruction

Martinot, ’10 (Steve, Instructor Emeritus at the Center for Interdisciplinary Programs at San Francisco State University, The Machinery of Whiteness, p. 7-11, bgm)

The essence of a revenge ethic is that

AND

racial or gender discrimination culturally permissible for people?

Helping to create a transparent and fair judicial system is critical to move away from vigilante justice and toward equal protection under the law

Tupaz and Wagner, 11/10/11 (Edsel, professor of international and comparative law at De La Salle University and Far Eastern University and senior executive assistant of the Philippine Truth Commission created by Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, and founding CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk consultancy based in Connecticut and has more than 20 years of experience managing country risk, is an authority on political risk insurance and analysis, and has 15 years of underwriting experience with AIG, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), GE, and the World Bank Group, “Ensuring Justice in Transitional Libya,” http://jurist.org/sidebar/2011/11/tupaz-wagner-libya-transition.php, bgm)

Amidst the rising vigilantism and score-settling

AND

practice will be an irreconcilable precedent for Libya.

Contention Two: Justifying US Action

Initially note – A responsibility to the Other should be the ultimate philosophical position – Unfortunately - this becomes tainted by imperialistic drives to erase Otherness in contemporary and liberal ethics – The only way to resolve this paradox is to embrace “responsive ethics” 

Servan Adar Avsar, Prof. IR @ University of Sussex, “Responsive Ethics and the War Against Terrorism: A Levinasian Perspective”, Journal of Global Ethics Vol. 3, No. 3, December 2007, pp. 317–334

Contemporary liberal ethics, on the other hand

AND

Butler 2004, pp. 129–130)

Second - Our aff fits this model of “responsive ethics” - The US enabled the violence by putting weapons in the hands of the rebels that have perpetuated racially motivated killings – We have an obligation to aid in their disarmament

Jackson, 11/8/11 (Jackson, “U.S. can’t stand by while racism ravages Libya,” Chicago Sun-Times, http://www.suntimes.com/news/jackson/8667940-452/us-cant-stand-by-while-racism-ravages-libya.html, jj)

Obama, who launched the Libyan mission amid

AND

stand silently by as racial division becomes deadly.

Third - The wholesale ethnic cleansing of Black Libyans is being marginalized by the mainstream media. This is not an accident – the underreporting and rhetorical framing of this genocide is tainted by racism and is an active attempt at erasing any wrongdoing by the rebels from reality, thus alleviating the US’s responsibility. We can never end these racially-motivated killings if we continue to pretend they don’t exist.

Black Star News, ’11 (“Racist To The Core: NY Times Editorial Still Downplays Libya Ethnic Cleansing of Blacks,” 9/11, http://blackstarnews.com/news/135/ARTICLE/7620/2011-09-11.html)

Yesterday, The New York Times, still

AND

NATO, Western leaders, and editorial writers.

Fourth - Allowing us to skirt these obligations is the same “ends justify the means” logic that allows us to value certain lives as more valuable than others

Hayden, ’07 (Patrick, Senior Lecturer in the School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, Superfluous Humanity: An Arendtian Perspective on the Political Evil of Global Poverty, March 2007, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Volume 35, Number 2)

Second, we can also draw a connection

AND

system that asymmetrically values the lives of millions.

Fifth - This sets up the conditions for endless violence

Judith Butler, Professor of Rhetoric at UC Berkeley, “Frames of War”, 2009, Page 52 (BJN)

The body, in my view, is

AND

is the condition of sociality and survival alike.

Sixth – Creating hierarchies of value to human lives allows for the mass genocide of entirely disposable populations

Judith Butler, Professor of Rhetoric at UC Berkeley, “Frames of War”, 2009, Page 29-31 (BJN)

These reflections have implications for thinking through the

AND

to protect the lives of "the living."

It is important to note that we are not advocating action because Libya is incapable of internal reform.  Rather, we recognize incorporating human rights into the rule of law is a difficult process – especially after decades of Ghadaffi intentionally weakening institutions – It took the US legal system too long to recognize the human rights of Africans – We hope advocating assistance to Libya can aid them in coming to that conclusion faster.

VOA, Voice of America, Nov 22nd 2011, http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/tag/libya/page/2/

Libya's National Transitional Council has unveiled a new

AND

forces took control of his hometown of Sirte.

Do not conflate our actions as paternalistic or coercive.  An ethic against revenge killings should be elevated as a universal good

Talbott, ’05 (William J., professor of philosophy at the University of Washington, What rights should be universal?, p. 143-4)

One solution to this problem for individual deterrence

AND

them usually require laws backed up with sanctions.

The US has been asked to assist in providing workshops for Libyan judges

Telegraph, Jan 31st 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/libya-wikileaks/8294575/HERE-COMES-THE-JUDGE-LIBYAN-JUDGES-RESPOND-POSITIVELY-TO-AMERICAN-JUDGES-WORKSHOP-ON-ARBITRATION.html

1. (C ) Summary: Under

AND

U.S. companies operating in Libya.

Contention Three: A Defense of Our Method

Libya is experiencing an era not unlike the US reconstruction period.  Racially motivated killings are the endpoint manifestations of the intersection of nationalist, racist, and classist sentiments that permeate a post-Gaddafi Libya

Russeau, ’11 (Simba, award winning multimedia storyteller living in North Africa, “Ethnic Hatred Taints Liberated Libya,” http://www.racialicious.com/2011/11/23/ethnic-hatred-taints-liberated-libya/, 11/23, bgm)

In the aftermath of Gaddafi’s reign, nearly

AND

but there were many days that we starved.”

Finally - Combating racism is an admirable goal that must start with combating its most fatal manifestations.  The NAACP recognized this in 1909 when they focused the entirety of their financial and organizational resources on an anti-lynching campaign.  We bring that message to Libya - “The racially motivated violence must stop.” -  As the NAACP understood, human rights cannot be achieved before human status. Recognition of the right to be free of violence was critical to begin the civil rights movement.

Francis, ‘11 (Megan, Assistant Professor of Political Science, “The Civil Rights Connection: The Formation of National Judicial Power and the NAACP,” 3/10, http://www.polisci.ucla.edu/new-folder/papers/Francis-The%20Civil%20RIghts%20Connection.pdf)

By the summer of 1919, Phillips County

AND

dealt with by ceding power to federal courts.

Plan: The Middle East Partnership Initiative should substantially increase all necessary judicial reform assistance for Libya.

Contention 1 – Civil War

Libya is on the brink of collapse – failure to reign in the militias means it will relapse into anarchy

Khaleej Times, 12/12/11 (“Gun-culture in Libya,” http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2011/December/editorial_December21.xml&section=editorial, bgm)

Libya is now in a new … rebuilding the war-torn country.

Libya lacks the capacity to hold trials for thousands of detainees. Success of these trials is key to future trials and the rule of law

Jawat, 11/23/11 (Rana, BBC, “Trial of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi will test Libya justice,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15864948, bgm)

Libya's transitional authorities come … new authorities and the judicial system.

An effective judicial system is key to resolving both of these problems

Whitson, 12/30/11 (Sarah Leah, Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch, “In Libya, Building the Rule of Law,” International Herald Tribune, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/in-libya-building-the-rule-of-law.html, bgm)

Recently in Tripoli, I sat with Abdel-Jalil … both sides of the conflict.

Effective justice is a trump card – outweighs everything

Tupaz and Wagner, 11/10/11 (Edsel, professor of international and comparative law at De La Salle University and Far Eastern University and senior executive assistant of the Philippine Truth Commission created by Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, and founding CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk consultancy based in Connecticut and has more than 20 years of experience managing country risk, is an authority on political risk insurance and analysis, and has 15 years of underwriting experience with AIG, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), GE, and the World Bank Group, “Ensuring Justice in Transitional Libya,” http://jurist.org/sidebar/2011/11/tupaz-wagner-libya-transition.php, bgm)

Amidst the rising vigilantism … irreconcilable precedent for Libya.

Instability in Libya causes global terrorism

David A Gordon, Program manager and a research assistant with the CSIS transnational threats project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Aadviser at the center for streategic and international studies, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

Another immediate counterterrorism challenge … those who have yet to be radicalized.

The timeframe is 2013

Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking … when they put their minds to it.”

And, it escalates to great power nuclear war

Ayson ’10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even … chances of nuclear restraint.

The impact is extinction

Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

To an increasing extent, people … present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Libyan oil is on the rebound, but instability will reverse this

Krauss, 11/15/11 (Clifford, “Spared in War, Libya’s Oil Flow Is Surging Back,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/business/global/oil-production-rises-quickly-in-libyan-fields.html, bgm)

Libya’s oil production remains … barrels a day by the end of 2012.

That collapses the global economy

Stelzer 11 (Irwin M., Contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London), 3/7, “A Libyan Oil Shock?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/libyan-oil-shock_552544.html?page=2)

But there is oil and there is oil … nation’s continuing need for oil.

Extinction

Kemp 10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem … for two-thirds of the planet’s population.

Studies prove economic collapse causes global wars

Royal, '10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction Program -- DOD, Economics of War & Peace: Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith & Brauer, p. 213-15)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline … economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Contention 2 – Middle East Leadership

US needs to take the lead on Libyan reconstruction—that rebuilds US image throughout the region—ceding leadership to others undermines good will

Paul Wolfowitz 11-3, former United States Ambassador to Indonesia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, President of the World Bank, and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. He is currently a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, “America's Opportunity in Libya”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011721031265512.html

But the failure of the U.S. to support … higher price if we do nothing.

US credibility in the region is at an all-time low – Libya is the litmus test

Hamid 8/26 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America's vital interest after all”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/)

Libya is perhaps the first of such …seemed to work.

Libya is the test case for US leadership in the region – Inaction symbolizes US impotence and kills credibility of our security guarantees

Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

The future of Libya was never terribly … mention friendly to the West.

There are multiple impacts:

First, Iran

Retreat from regional leadership leads to great power conflict and Iranian adventurism

Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136

The subtraction of American power … likely to draw the United States back in again.

Nuclear war

Alon Ben-Meir, 2007 (“Ending Iran's defiance American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iranian regime”, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html, accessed 6/25/10)

The fact that Iran stands … not halting its nuclear program.

Second, Israel

Perception of US non-commitment radicalizes Israeli foreign policy and causes greater self-reliance

Malka 11 Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS "Uncertain Commitment: Israeli Assessments of US Power" csis.org/files/publication/110613_malka_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

More broadly, U.S. indecision and passivity … both Israel and the United States.

That ensures miscalc and triggers biological and nuclear war

Beres 11 Louis René Beres is a professor of Political Science at Purdue University, an expert on Israeli security matters and the author of 10 major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. "The unforeseen risks of Palestinian statehood" 6/9/11 www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-unforeseen-risks-of-palestinian-statehood-1.382766

In turn, such self-reliance … enemy nuclear counterstrikes.

Third, Asia

Independently collapses US credibility in Asia

Alterman, 11

Jon Alterman, CSIS Middle East Senior Fellow, May 2011, The Middle East Turns East, csis.org/files/publication/0511_MENC.pdf

An increasing U.S. orientation … strong position in the Middle East.

Credibility in the Middle East is necessary to assure Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

Amitai Etzioni, March-April 2011, Military Review, "The coming test of U.S. credibility," http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

American allies in other regions … not to cite the source or venue.)

Even the perception of retrenchment triggers Asian arms racing

Blumenthal ’09 (Dan, resident fellow in Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, May, Far Eastern Economic Review, “The Erosion of U.S. Power in Asia”, Vol. 172, Iss. 4, proquest, jj)

Though "soft power" and "smart power" … the wisdom of that policy?

Asian prolif escalates to global nuclear war

Cirincione, ‘2k – Director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Spring 2000, Joseph, Foreign Policy, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain”, JStor)

The blocks would fall quickest … use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.

Contention 3 – Solvency

US should give judicial assistance to the NTC – key to stability and rule of law

Bellinger, 11/22/11 (John III, adjunct senior fellow in international and national security law at the Council on Foreign Relations and partner with Arnold and Porter LLP, “Regime trials belong in Libya’s courts,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trials-of-moammar-gaddafis-favored-few-belong-in-libyas-courts/2011/11/22/gIQANU4WmN_story.html, bgm)

The weekend capture of Moammar … community should support their efforts.

MEPI has been successful at judicial training in Libya

Telegraph, Jan 31st 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/libya-wikileaks/8294575/HERE-COMES-THE-JUDGE-LIBYAN-JUDGES-RESPOND-POSITIVELY-TO-AMERICAN-JUDGES-WORKSHOP-ON-ARBITRATION.html

1. (C ) Summary: Under the Department … companies operating in Libya.

Only the US can prevent other powers from playing spoiler in Libya

Grygiel, 10/6/11 (Dr Jakub, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, Democracy Digest, “Democracy promotion – a geostrategic contest” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/democracy-promotion-a-geostrategic-contest/)

Finally, we cannot outsource democracy promotion … dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.

Assistance is key to an impartial judiciary in Libya

Peter Bouckaert is emergencies director of Human Rights Watch, “Human rights must be cornerstone of Libya's law”, CNN, October 20th 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-10-20/opinion/opinion_bouckaert-human-rights-libya_1_sirte-gadhafi-s-libya-national-transitional-council?_s=PM:OPINION

Libya's new leaders have … human rights for all.