Contention 1 – Inherency
Currently, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups cannot receive democracy assistance, undermining our engagement efforts
Kausch, ’10 (Kristina, researcher at FRIDE (Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior), “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” May, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, mrl)
The exclusion of Islamist actors … institutional ties with Islamist organisations in Egypt.
And, current levels of assistance are not meeting demand
McInerney ‘11 (Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, July, POMED, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf, jj)
Across various departments and offices within … which has not yet been obligated.
Thus, we present the following plan:
The United States federal government should substantially increase its Middle East Partnership Initiative democracy assistance for Egypt and allow all Egyptian political parties to receive access to this assistance.
Advantage 1is the Brotherhood
First, The Muslim Brotherhood will win the election
Saikal, 8/11/11 (Amin, professor of political science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, “Egypt must tough it out on the often rocky road to revolution,” http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/egypt-must-tough-it-out-on-the-often-rocky-road-to-revolution-20110810-1imnl.html, mrl)
In Egypt, the balance of political … mean that it will not support a preferred candidate.
Second, allowing MEPI to fund the Brotherhood increases the effectiveness of our engagement
Hamid ‘10 (Shadi, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, jj)
Meanwhile, the Middle East Partnership Initiative …power, rather than afterward, when it will be too late.
Third US must engage the Brotherhood before they take power to ensure cooperation
Hamid ’11 (Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” proquest, jj)
For decades, U.S. policy toward the Middle East … later, after they are already in power.
Fourth this ensures the Brotherhood doesn’t adopt anti-Israel or anti-American policies
Hamid ’11 (Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” proquest, jj)
During the uprisings, the protesters have sensed ..will need to finally come to terms with Islamists.
This causes three scenarios for nuclear war.
The first is Israel.
Brotherhood controlled Egypt will supply Hamas with weapons-risks all-out war
Byman February 4th, 2011 (Daniel L, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institute, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?”http:www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_protests_byman.aspx, jj)
But the Brotherhood would make … could easily spiral out of control.
And this causes rapid escalation-Hamas will be emboldened with increased Egyptian support
Rubin 3-27-11 (Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal and Turkish Studies, the Jerusalem Post, “Another Israel-Hamas war is inevitable” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=214073, jj)
With better weapons, Hamas will go ….and escalating its use of terrorism.
This draws in the entire region and goes nuclear.
Oren ’08 (Michael B, Israeli Ambassador to the US, senior fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, is the author of "Six Days of War" and "Power, Faith, and Fantasy: America in the Middle East, 1776 to the Present." Washington Post, 3-2, “The Next Mideast War, Just A Rocket Away” lexis, jj)
It begins with a single Qassam rocket… That moment could be a single Qassam away.
The second scenario is proliferation.
Brotherhood takeover causes Egypt nuclearization, triggering a nuclear domino effect in the Middle East
Sokolski, February 8th, 2011 (Henry, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and editor of Nuclear Power’s Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks, The New Republic, “Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire” http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak, jj)
The United States has had formal civilian … are likely to be destabilized.
Middle Eastern proliferation causes nuclear war
Stanley Kurtz, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, “Our Fallout-Shelter Future”, August 26th 2006, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/218561/our-fallout-shelter-future/stanley-kurtz, (mrl)
Right now, the Indians and Pakistanis … them from escalating into nuclear confrontations.
Third is relations.
Independently - Democracy assistance key to maintaining strong US-Egypt relations
Heydemann 2-14-11 (Steven, political scientist whose research focuses on democratization and economic reform in the Middle East, United States Institute of Peace, “Egypt’s Transition” http://www.usip.org/publications/egypts-transition, jj)
America's relationship with Egypt will change, … toward a democratic political order.
US-Egypt relations key to US power projection and warfighting capabilities-backbone of global leadership and US naval power
Wood February 5th, 2011 (David, writer for Politics Daily, Center for a New American Security, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.cnas.org/node/5654, jj)
Also suddenly at risk, … we are not well postured for that eventuality.''
Hegemony solves all their impacts – collapse causes global nuclear war
Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations …draw the United States back in again.
And, they can’t win a disad to engaging the Brotherhood-status quo contacts trigger the links but don’t solve the aff.
Brown August 9th, 2011 (Nathan J, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and a nonresident senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the National Interest, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?”
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721?page=1, jj)
This awkward policy ended …Islamists. It should be in Egypt as well.
Advantage 2 Is Democracy
Funding MEPI ensures a transition to a liberal democracy,
Masloski, February 9th, 2011 (Andrew, Director of Educational Outreach at America Abroad Media, Foreign Policy, “the price of democracy in Egypt” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_democracy_in_egypt, jj)
Through existing programs like the State Department's … commitment to democracy in the Middle East.
Second, Egypt is key to regional democracy
Kagan & Dunne, March 7th, 2011(Robert, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Michele, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington Post, “What We Can Do For Egypt” Proquest, jj)
Why is Egypt so important? Because it …. The Arab Spring will live or die in Egypt.
And, democracy key to check extremism – solves terrorism and long term peace
Hamid & Brooke ’10 (Shadi, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Steven, Ph.D. student in the Department of Government at the University of Texas and formerly a research associate at the Nixon Center, February/March, Hoover Institution, “Promoting Democracy To Stop Terror, Revisited”, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/5285, jj)
De-emphasizing support for democracy, … components of counterterrorism strategy have failed.
That causes extinction
Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf
To an increasing extent, people are congregating….present scenarios and physical outcomes.
And, democratic Egypt key to undermine Iran’s influence
Carpenter April 13th, 2011 (J. Scott, Keston Family Fellow The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia Wednesday, April 13, 2011 “Shifting Sands: Political Transitions in the Middle East, Part 1” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/CarpenterTestimony20110413.pdf, jj)
Taken together, the developments in North Africa, ….future of Iran’s theocracy are profound.
Unrestrained Iran risks nuclear war
Alon Ben-Meir, 2007 (“Ending Iran's defiance American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iranian regime”, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html, accessed 6/25/10)
The fact that Iran stands today … severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
And, spreading democracy solves multiple scenarios for war and extinction
Diamond ’95 (Larry, Hoover Institution senior fellow, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, December, A Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives,” http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm)
OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of threats …. international security and prosperity can be built.
No offense-autocracies are unsustainable
Masoud, ’11 (Tarek, assistant professor of public policy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a Carnegie Scholar, “The Road to (and from) Liberation Square,” Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 3 July, http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/gratis/Masoud-22-3.pdf, jj)
These reflections on what the revolution in Egypt ….the halfway house does not stand.”3
Finally, democracy best ensures cultural openness and individual rights
Radnitz et al March 10th, 2011 (Professor Scott, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, Task Force 2011, “The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization” https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16487/Task%20Force%20C%202011%20Web.pdf?sequence=1, jj)
To promote democracy should not be misunderstood …. and equal political say is borderless.
