Contention 1 – Inherency
Currently, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups cannot receive democracy assistance, thus undermining our engagement efforts
Kausch, ’10 (Kristina, researcher at FRIDE (Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior), “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” May,http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, bgm)
The exclusion of Islamist actors from foreign donors’
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systematic institutional ties with Islamist organisations in Egypt.
1AC Plan Text
Thus, we present the following plan:
The United States federal government should substantially increase political party support to the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party through the Middle East Partnership Initiative.
Advantage 1is the Brotherhood
First, The Muslim Brotherhood will win the election
Saikal, 8/11/11 (Amin, professor of political science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, “Egypt must tough it out on the often rocky road to revolution,” http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/egypt-must-tough-it-out-on-the-often-rocky-road-to-revolution-20110810-1imnl.html, bgm)
In Egypt, the balance of political popularity
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that it will not support a preferred candidate.
Second, allowing MEPI to fund the Brotherhood increases the effectiveness of our engagement
Hamid ‘10 (Shadi, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, jj)
Meanwhile, the Middle East Partnership Initiative continues
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afterward, when it will be too late.
Third US must engage the Brotherhood before they take power to ensure cooperation
Hamid ’11 (Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” proquest, jj)
For decades, U.S. policy
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later, after they are already in power.
Fourth this ensures the Brotherhood doesn’t adopt anti-Israel or anti-American policies
Hamid ’11 (Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” proquest, jj)
During the uprisings, the protesters have sensed
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need to finally come to terms with Islamists.
This causes three scenarios for nuclear war
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The first is Israel.
Brotherhood controlled Egypt will supply Hamas with weapons-risks all-out war
Byman February 4th, 2011 (Daniel L, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institute, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?”http:www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_protests_byman.aspx, jj)
But the Brotherhood would make the peace even
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This tension could easily spiral out of control.
And this causes rapid escalation-Hamas will be emboldened with increased Egyptian support
Rubin 3-27-11 (Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal and Turkish Studies, the Jerusalem Post, “Another Israel-Hamas war is inevitable” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=214073, jj)
With better weapons, Hamas will go to
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new weapons and escalating its use of terrorism.
This draws in the entire region and goes nuclear.
Oren ’08 (Michael B, Israeli Ambassador to the US, senior fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, is the author of "Six Days of War" and "Power, Faith, and Fantasy: America in the Middle East, 1776 to the Present." Washington Post, 3-2, “The Next Mideast War, Just A Rocket Away” lexis, jj)
It begins with a single Qassam rocket,
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That moment could be a single Qassam away.
Second is democracy
Radicalism within the MB risks roll-back of democracy once they assume power – but they can still be influenced
Russell 9-22-11 (Kevin, PhD student in Political Science at Yale University, previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense primarily in the Middle East office for the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, from 2008 to 2009 he was detailed to the State Dept as a governance advisor to a US Army Brigade in Taji, Iraq, Open Democracy, “The fight over democratic norms in Egypt” http://www.opendemocracy.net/kevin-russell/fight-over-democratic-norms-in-egypt, jj)
What will come of the Muslim Brotherhood organizational ... political order in Syria, Libya, and perhaps Iraq.
Plan solves---engaging Islamists empowers reformists and weakens anti-democratic hardliners
Al-Anani ’10 (Khalil, Senior Fellow at the Al Ahram Foundation, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy @ the Brookings Institution, “The Myth of Excluding Moderate Islamists in the Arab World” Working Paper 4, March, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/03_moderate_islamists_alahani/201003_moderate_islamists_alanani.pdf, jj)
The most important benefit of incorporating moderate ... conservatives regained the upper hand.
And, democratic Egypt key to undermine Iran’s influence
Carpenter April 13th, 2011 (J. Scott, Keston Family Fellow The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia Wednesday, April 13, 2011 “Shifting Sands: Political Transitions in the Middle East, Part 1” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/CarpenterTestimony20110413.pdf, jj)
Taken together, the developments in North Africa ... future of Iran’s theocracy are profound.
Unrestrained Iran risks nuclear war
Alon Ben-Meir, 2007 (“Ending Iran's defiance American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iranian regime”, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html, accessed 6/25/10)
The fact that Iran stands today ... not halting its nuclear program.
Third is relations.
Independently - Democracy assistance key to maintaining strong US-Egypt relations
Heydemann 2-14-11 (Steven, political scientist whose research focuses on democratization and economic reform in the Middle East, United States Institute of Peace, “Egypt’s Transition” http://www.usip.org/publications/egypts-transition, jj)
America's relationship with Egypt will change, and
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moving their country toward a democratic political order.
US-Egypt relations key to US power projection and warfighting capabilities-backbone of global leadership and US naval power
Wood February 5th, 2011 (David, writer for Politics Daily, Center for a New American Security, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East”http://www.cnas.org/node/5654, jj)
Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright
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are not well postured for that eventuality.''
Hegemony solves all their impacts – collapse causes global nuclear war
Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136
The jostling for status and influence among
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to draw the United States back in again.
Brown August 9th, 2011 (Nathan J, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and a nonresident senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the National Interest, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?”
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721?page=1, jj)
This awkward policy ended when the Brotherhood wound
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. It should be in Egypt as well.
Advantage 2 is Muslim Relations
US favoritism of liberal secularism is the root cause of Muslim resentment towards the West – Providing democracy assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood signals a shift in the relationship
Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America”http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)
On the ten-year anniversary of the
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with the Muslim world will become more amicable.
AND only unequivocal and clear assistance sends the right message
HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April,http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)
Over more than three decades since the Camp
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the U.S. government should contribute.
Beginning with Egypt’s Brotherhood creates a starting point for further cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region
Stacher, Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘7 (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe, http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)
According to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice,
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group in the region than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.
That’s the best way to challenge radical Islamic terrorism – helps win hearts and minds
Hamid, Director Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘7 (Shadi, June, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy” Progressive Policy Institute,http://www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf)
In light of the growing schism between mainstream
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That window, however, is now closed.
Specifically, it prevents terrorist WMD use against the United States and prevents escalation in multiple hotspots
Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16)
Improving relations with Muslim majority countries and communities
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needs at home or other critical challenges abroad.
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf
To an increasing extent, people are congregating
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well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.
And, it escalates to nuclear war with Russia and China.
Ayson ’10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the
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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
Our impact has a high probability
Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes,http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the
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accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”
