Contention 1 – Inherency
Currently, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups cannot receive democracy assistance, thus undermining our engagement efforts
Kausch, ’10 (Kristina, researcher at FRIDE (Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior), “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” May, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, bgm)
The exclusion of Islamist actors … with Islamist organisations in Egypt.
1AC Plan Text
Thus, we present the following plan:
The United States federal government should substantially increase political party support to the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party through the Middle East Partnership Initiative.
Advantage 1 is the Brotherhood
First, The Muslim Brotherhood will win the election
Saikal, 8/11/11 (Amin, professor of political science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, “Egypt must tough it out on the often rocky road to revolution,” http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/egypt-must-tough-it-out-on-the-often-rocky-road-to-revolution-20110810-1imnl.html, bgm)
In Egypt, the balance of political … support a preferred candidate.
Second, allowing MEPI to fund the Brotherhood increases the effectiveness of our engagement
Hamid ‘10 (Shadi, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, jj)
Meanwhile, the Middle East Partnership … it will be too late.
Third US must engage the Brotherhood before they take power to ensure cooperation
Hamid ’11 (Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” proquest, jj)
For decades, U.S. policy … they are already in power.
Fourth this ensures the Brotherhood doesn’t adopt anti-Israel or anti-American policies
Hamid ’11 (Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” proquest, jj)
During the uprisings, the protesters … come to terms with Islamists.
This causes two scenarios for nuclear war.
The First is proliferation.
Brotherhood takeover causes Egypt nuclearization, triggering a nuclear domino effect in the Middle East
Sokolski, February 8th, 2011 (Henry, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and editor of Nuclear Power’s Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks, The New Republic, “Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire” http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak, jj)
The United States has had … are likely to be destabilized.
Middle Eastern proliferation causes nuclear war
Stanley Kurtz, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, “Our Fallout-Shelter Future”, August 26th 2006, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/218561/our-fallout-shelter-future/stanley-kurtz, (mrl)
Right now, the Indians and … escalating into nuclear confrontations.
Second is relations.
Independently - Democracy assistance key to maintaining strong US-Egypt relations
Heydemann 2-14-11 (Steven, political scientist whose research focuses on democratization and economic reform in the Middle East, United States Institute of Peace, “Egypt’s Transition” http://www.usip.org/publications/egypts-transition, jj)
America's relationship with Egypt … toward a democratic political order.
US-Egypt relations key to US power projection and warfighting capabilities---backbone of global leadership and US naval power
Wood February 5th, 2011 (David, writer for Politics Daily, Center for a New American Security, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” http://www.cnas.org/node/5654, jj)
Also suddenly at risk, along with … not well postured for that eventuality.''
Hegemony solves all their impacts – collapse causes global nuclear war
Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136
The jostling for status and … the United States back in again.
And, they can’t win a disad to engaging the Brotherhood---status quo contacts trigger the links but don’t solve the aff.
Brown August 9th, 2011 (Nathan J, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and a nonresident senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the National Interest, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?”
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721?page=1, jj)
This awkward policy ended … should be in Egypt as well.
We solve – Muslim Brotherhood will say yes to engagement
Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Revolution in Cairo”, PBS Interview, 3-4, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/revolution-in-cairo/interviews/shadi-hamid.html#5)
Do you think the United States … about sooner rather than later.
Advantage 2 is Muslim Relations
US favoritism of liberal secularism is the root cause of Muslim resentment towards the West – Providing democracy assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood signals a shift in the relationship
Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)
On the ten-year anniversary of … will become more amicable.
Beginning with Egypt’s Brotherhood creates a starting point for further cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region
Stacher, Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘7 (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe, http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)
According to Secretary of State Condoleezza … than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.
That’s the best way to challenge radical Islamic terrorism – helps win hearts and minds
Hamid, Director Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘7 (Shadi, June, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy” Progressive Policy Institute, http://www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf)
In light of the growing schism … window, however, is now closed.
Specifically, it prevents terrorist WMD use against the United States and prevents escalation in multiple hotspots
Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16)
Improving relations with Muslim majority … other critical challenges abroad.
AND – Egypt is the most important internal link to credibility wayne 123
Satloff 9/13/11 (Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute, Needed: High-Level U.S. Attention to the Dire Situation in Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1714)
Ambassador William B. Taylor -- the … the region collapses as well.
AND only unequivocal and clear assistance sends the right message
HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)
Over more than three decades … the U.S. government should contribute.
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Toon et al 7 – Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf
To an increasing extent, people … present scenarios and physical outcomes.
And, it escalates to nuclear war with Russia and China.
Ayson ’10 [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)]
A terrorist nuclear attack, and … the chances of nuclear restraint.
Our impact has a high probability
Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 6-29-’11 (Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and … they put their minds to it.”
Independently, the plan is key to restore US credibility
Aftandilian ’09 (Gregory L, independent consultant and writer, former foreign policy adviser to Congressman Chris Van Hollen (2007-2008), former professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and foreign policy adviser to Senator Paul Sarbanes (2000-2004), and foreign policy fellow to Senator Edward Kennedy (1999), worked for thirteen years as a Middle East analyst at the U.S. Department of State, specializing in Egyptian affairs, research fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (2006-2007) and an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (1991-1992) in New York, author of “Egypt’s Bid for Arab Leadership: Implications for U.S. Policy”, senior adviser on Middle East affairs for the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, holds a B.A. in History from Dartmouth College, an M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Chicago, and an M.S. in International Relations from the London School of Economics, May, Project for Middle East Democracy, “Looking Forward: An Integrated Strategy for Supporting Democracy and Human Rights in Egypt” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/looking-forward.pdf, jj)
Fifth, as mentioned at the outset… other policy goals across the region.
That solves extinction
Nye and Armitage, ’07 [Jospeh S. Nye, Sultan of Oman Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations and former Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and Richard, deputy secretary of state from 2001 to 2005, both are co-chairs of the CSIS Commission on Smart Power, 2007, “CSIS Reports – A Smarter, More Secure America”, http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4156/type,1/, 11/6]
The information age has heightened … to destroy the enemy’s will to fight.
And the aff is active coexistence with the Other rather than mere tolerance. We must delineate between moderate and radical Muslims to prevent violence and create cultural understanding.
Demant 6 – Peter R. is a Professor of History at Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil. He was senior research associate at the Harry S Truman Research Institute. He is a specialist in Middle Eastern and Islamic affairs. (ISLAM vs. ISLAMISM: The Dilemma of the Muslim World, pg. 233)
The West’s reaction to the frightening increase … the victims are Westerners or Muslims.
