Contention 1 Instability
Security in Libya precarious now—police are worried about retribution
Lubold 11
[Gordon Lubold, “What’s Next for the New Libya”, United States Institute of Peace, 8-30-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/what-s-next-the-new-libya-usip-experts-weigh-in]
Naturally, security is a … with Qaddafi,” she says.
Lack of police causes instability
Haynes 11
[Deborah Haynes, Defense Editor of the London Times, “UK Commentary Warns Islamists, Al-Qadhafi Loyalists Likely to Destabilize Libya”, 8-30-2011]
Anyone who believes … to prevent further strife.
Causes a volatile transition to democracy
Tucker 11
[Joshua A. Tucker, Professor of Politics at New York University, a National Security Fellow at the Truman National Security Project ,“Three Ways to Ensure That Libya Isn’t Just Free of Qaddafi, But Truly Democratic”, The New Republic, 8-23-2011, http://www.tnr.com/article/world/94058/three-ways-ensure-libya-isn%E2%80%99t-just-free-gaddafi-truly-democratic]
2. The Immediate Security … seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.
U.S. involvement inevitable if transition doesn’t go smoothly
Chaddock 11
[Gail Russell Chaddock, Staff writer at the Christian Science Monitor, “What happens next in Libya? America’s five greatest concerns.”, The Christian Science Monitor, 8-26-2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0826/What-happens-next-in-Libya-America-s-five-greatest-concerns/Secure-Libya-s-arsenal]
There is strong, bipartisan … – of our own making.”
Makes Libya a safe haven for Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
Lister 11
[Tim Lister, “Q&A: Gadhafi’s options, future scenarios and more”, CNN World, 8-24-2011, http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/24/libya.qanda/index.html?iref=obnetwork]
A peaceful if not perfect … security, security and security
AQIM is gaining capability and looking to Libya
Ganley 11
[Elaine Ganley, “Al-Qaida in North Africa seeks Arab Spring jihad”, Associated Press, 8-15-2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hfncqhSjMzaaJ1Bw-_qcVq_9uVHA]
Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb wants to … uprisings around the Arab world
They’ll easily get Libyan WMD
Ennahar Online 11
[“Libya, a potential arsenal for AQIM”, 5-24-2011, http://www.ennaharonline.com/en/international/6618.html]
Libya could become an arsenal for Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and a place of attraction for the international anti-Western jihad, warned Tuesday the coordinator of the fight against terrorism in the EU. "We have several subjects of concerns," said Gilles de Kerchove during a speech to the European Parliament meeting in committees in Brussels. "Libya and Yemen, became very weak state, tribal, could become failed states and places of attraction for international jihad," he said. "The weapons looted in the Libya arsenals, and some are very sophisticated, are likely to fall in the hands of AQIM," he added. Gilles de Kerchove has also mentioned the dismantling of the intelligence services in Tunisia and Egypt "because they were the arms of repression" and "release of jihadists who have remained active.
Libya’s nuclear material risks being stolen if police step back
Birch 11
[DOUGLAS BIRCH - Associated Press,KIMBERLY DOZIER, "Libya's deadliest weapons not yet corralled", http://news.yahoo.com/libyas-deadliest-weapons-not-yet-corralled-212848414.html]
No one can be sure who controls the Libyan … of building a nuclear weapon
AQIM will engage in nuclear terrorism—securing sites is key
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11
[“After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat”, 5-13-2011, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t]
The evolving threat. … this potential source material.
Even a small attack causes great power wars and extinction
Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)
But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state … draw about their culpability?
Even if it fails it leads to retaliation that leads to extinction
Sid-Ahmed 04
[Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
What would be the consequences …, we will all be losers.
You should prioritize the sheer magnitude of a nuclear terrorist attack – probability doesn’t apply to our scenario
Allison 07
[Graham Allison, Professor of Government, and Faculty Chair of the Dubai Initiative – Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, “Symposium: Apocalypse When?”, The National Interest, November / December 2007, Lexis]
Mueller is entitled to his … could hide it in a bale of marijuana.
And it’s comparatively more probable than nuclear war
Benson 10
[Pam Benson, CNN National Security Producer, “Official: Terrorists seek nuclear material, but lack ability to use it,” 4/13/2010, http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/04/13/nuclear.terrorists/index.html]
The president's top counterterrorism … it has to be done internationally."
Contention 2 NATO
Cohesion is fragile now
Volker 11
[Kurt Volker, Senior Advisor to the International Security Program and member of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Advisors Group, is a former US Ambassador to NATO “Libya Not NATO Comeback”, The New Atlanticist: Policy and Analysis, Atlantic Council, 8-23-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-not-nato-comeback]
The leadership problem: … mean anything in the future.
Perception of disengagement from Libya undermines European commitments
Joyner 11
[James Joyner, “Libya Exposes Transatlantic Contradictions”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog, Atlantic Council, 8-26-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-exposes-transatlantic-contradictions]
First, for a variety of … European “caveats” in Afghanistan.
Libya is key
Volker 11
[Kurt Volker, Senior Advisor to the International Security Program and member of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Advisors Group, is a former US Ambassador to NATO “Libya Not NATO Comeback”, The New Atlanticist: Policy and Analysis, Atlantic Council, 8-23-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-not-nato-comeback]
The concept of an alliance … NATO's capabilities are needed.
U.S. leadership in the transition solves
Dubik 11
[James M, Institute for the Study of War Senior Fellow, a retired Army lieutenant general who oversaw the training of Iraqi troops from 2007 to 2008, "Finish the Job", 4-26-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/opinion/26Dubik.html?_r=1]
Public pronouncements aside, the … that decision and face its consequences.
Strong NATO solves nuclear war
Brzezinski 09
[ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, 2009, U.S. National Security Adviser from 1977 to 1981. His most recent book is Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower, September 2009 - October 2009, (Foreign Affairs, SECTION: Pg. 2 Vol. 88 No. 5, HEADLINE: An Agenda for NATO Subtitle: Toward a Global Security Web, p. Lexis)]
ADJUSTING TO A TRANSFORMED WORLD … on the United States and the West more generally
Contention 3 Burden-Sharing
U.S. leadership inevitable—burden-sharing key to effectiveness and sustainability
Jones 11
[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
The first point is one that … just the two Houses of Congress.
Libya demonstrates a model of burden-sharing that works
Zakaria 11
[Fareed Zakaria, columnist for Newsweek and editor of Newsweek International, until moving to Editor-At-Large of Time in 2010. He is also the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, and a frequent commentator and author about issues related to international relations, trade and American foreign policy, “How the Lessons of Iraq Paid Off in Libya”, Time Magazine, 8-25-2011]
Back in March, many … That's not a bad model for the future.
The model walks the tightrope of leadership perfectly
O’Hanlon 11
[Michael E. O’Hanlon, Director of Research and Senior Fellow at Brookings and the 21st Century Defense Initiative, “The Rebellion in Libya at the Tipping Point”, 8-22-2011, http://www.brookings.edu/multimedia/video/2011/0822_ohanlon_libya.aspx]
It still is sort of a signature … and isolationism on the other.
But, U.S. involvement on the transition is key
Kagan 11
[Robert Kagan, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a August 26, “An imperfect triumph in Libya”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-imperfect-triumph-in-libya/2011/08/26/gIQA5gC9gJ_story.html]
The toppling of Gaddafi’s 42-year … great. Obama needs to resist it.
Success of the “Libya model” sets a precedent for future use
Gvosdev 11
[Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media. He is currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, “The Realist Prism: Obama’s Post Realist Turn in Libya”, World Politics Review, 8-26-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9892/the-realist-prism-obamas-post-realist-turn-in-libya]
As the Libya operation … this posed to the United States.
Absent burden-sharing, U.S. will overstretch—no other power wants to fill-in
Jones 11
[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
There is no ready alternative … increasingly overstretched as a result.
Causes premature and sudden withdrawal
Jones 11
[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
Should the United States … either is to achieve its goals.
Premature withdrawal of leadership causes nuclear war
Brzezinski 05
[Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership”]
History is a record of change, a … America’s global misuse of its own power.
Plan
The United States Federal Government should engage in a Justice and Security Dialogue with Libya.
Contention 4 Solvency
A JSD would work in Libya
Rausch 11
[Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]
What are some practical … working in Kirkuk, Iraq.
Police forces that respect rule-of-law is key to a stable transition
Serwer 11
[Daniel Serwer, professorial lecturer and senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University of Advanced International Studies and a scholar the Middle East Institute, “Where does Libya go from here?”, Reuters, 8-25-2011, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/08/25/where-does-libya-go-from-here/]
There are no magic formulas … Libyan democracy would want.
U.S. leadership in building police and security is vital
Carafano 11
[James Jay Ph.D. , is Deputy Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Davis Institute, and James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center at The Heritage Foundation, 3/31/11]
Washington was wrong to … lifting to the “international community.”
