1AC
Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its support for civil law enforcement in Yemen.
Contention 1 is Terrorism
Despite recent success, Al Qaeda has reconstituted in Yemen and has begun organizing plots against the US
Greg Miller, The Washington Post, “U.S. officials believe al-Qaeda on brink of collapse”, July 26, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/al-qaeda-could-collapse-us-officials-say/2011/07/21/gIQAFu2pbI_print.html
U.S. counterterrorism officials are increasingly convinced that the killing of Osama bin Laden …has emerged as the most dangerous of those affiliates. The group is responsible for recent plots, including the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner in 2009 and the attempt to mail parcels packed with explosives to U.S. addresses last year.
And AQAP is international – Yemen would be a base for global operations- takes our their impact defense
Boucek ‘9 (Christopher Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for Peace, CNN, “Yemen's Problems Will Not Stay in Yemen”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2009/12/30/yemen-s-problems-will-not-stay-in-yemen/3zw, December 30, 2009, LEQ)
In recent days, international attention has refocused on the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Yemen. The claim of responsibility for the attack on Northwest flight 253 on December 25 by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has underscored the fact that Yemen's problems will not stay in Yemen. In the absence of immediate and sustained …said to me, "We've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends."
We’ll isolate a few scenarios – first is attacks on the homeland
AQAP is uniquely dangerous – they are seeking to acquire and use CBWs in attacks
Lolita C. Baldor, Associated Press, “U.S. Plans to Train Yemeni Counter-Terrorism Unit” Monday, February 14, 2011, http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/us-plans-train-yemeni-counter-terrorism
Senior U.S. intelligence officials told Congress Thursday that AQAP is committed to … plot and execute attacks, and urge others to do the same.
CBW attacks cause extinction
John D. Steinbruner, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, and Vice Chair, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences, 12/22/1997 (“Biological Weapons: A Plague Upon All Houses” – Foreign Policy) p. lexis
Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear explosives and lethal chemicals as potential weapons of mass destruction, there is an obvious, fundamentally important difference: Pathogens are alive, weapons are not. … cascade of disease that might ultimately threaten the entire world population. The 1918 influenza epidemic demonstrated the potential for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.
Second is U.S. Intervention
A successful attack would cause the US to intervene with ground troops – this would tank all efforts at stopping AQAP
Dr. W. Andrew Terrill is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks PA, “Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah”, November 1, 2010, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Preventing-Yemen-from-Becoming-Fallujah/2010/11/1
In the rapidly mutating world of international terrorist organizations, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has become one of the most serious threats facing the United States. … consider ways to address the problems that may be associated with an expanded aid program while seeking continuing input from those on the ground on how such programs can be improved. In the end, this struggle will be won by strategy and not brute force.
Full military intervention in Yemen would cause overstretch and kill heg
Marc Lynch, Foreign Policy, “Don't lose perspective on Yemen”, Saturday, January 2, 2010, http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/02/bad_ideas_on_yemen
Direct American military intervention in Yemen is so obviously ludicrous that it shouldn't even need to be said. Even the hyper-interventionist conservatives at the Washington Post op-ed page allow that "U.S. ground troops are not needed, for now." They never should be. The U.S. is already struggling to fully resource and equip a mission in Afghanistan … should not be made to escalate or initiate commitments to Yemen in a politically-charged, reactive way. And what ever is done had better take seriously the key political issues in the Gulf and Yemen where AQAP is only one small part of an extremely complex environment.
This crushes military readiness and our ability to deter
Perry et. al., January 2006 (William- former secretary of defense and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, The U.S. Military, The National Security Advisory Group, p. 11)
• If recruiting trends do not improve over the next year, the Army – both active and reserve – … the visible overextension of our ground forces has the potential to significantly weaken our ability to deter and respond to some contingencies.
Decline causes nuclear great power conflict - empirical studies prove
Khalilzad 11 (Zalmay, Former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the UN and Former Director of Policy Planning @ the DOD, “The Economy and National Security,” February 8th, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad?page=3)
The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. …, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.
Contention 2 is Saudi Arabia
Yemen’s weak government is causing Saudi instability- AQAP spillover
Atarodi ’10 (Alexander Atarodi, FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, “Yemen in Crisis – Consequences for the Horn of Africa”, March 2010, LEQ)
Recently, Saudi Arabia’s territory has been attacked by Yemeni Houthi rebels. The Saudis connect the rebels with al-Qaeda …The domestic political development in Yemen is thus critically important to the security and stability of Saudi Arabia.
And political instability is allowing AQAP to destabilize Saudi Arabia- solving the political situation is key
Murphy ‘9 (Caryle Murphy, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, “Saudi concern rises over Al Qaeda activity in Yemen”,http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/1019/p06s10-wome.html, October 19, 2009, LEQ)
Two Yemen-based militants dressed as women, one of whom was a former Guantánamo prisoner, were intercepted at a Saudi checkpoint last week. Yemen's government has been so preoccupied fighting Houthi rebels in the northern Saada province and separatists in the south that Al Qaeda militants can operate fairly … inaction is not an option." Operations inside Saudi Arabia The recent interception of two suicide bombers follows earlier arrests this year of extremists operating inside Saudi Arabia with links to Al Qaeda
Collapse of Yemen would destroy Saudi Arabia due to instability and refugee flow- they are linked
Horton ’11 (Michael Horton is a Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. He also writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Digest, Islamic Affairs Analyst, and the Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Horton studied Middle East History and Economics at the American University of Cairo and Arabic at the Center for Arabic Language and Eastern Studies in Yemen. Michael frequently travels to Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, The Jamestown Foundation, “The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen”, http://global-security-news.com/2011/04/07/the-unseen-hand-saudi-arabian-involvement-in-yemen/, April 7, 2011, LEQ)
The future of Yemen is inextricably linked to the stability and security of Saudi Arabia… if Yemen were to descend into civil war, a real possibility would be that as much as half of Yemen’s population of almost 24 million might try to seek shelter in Saudi Arabia. [3] Saudi Arabia could not begin to manage this.
Saudi instability causes oil shocks- kills the global economy
Steven David, Prof. Political Science at Johns Hopkins, 1999 [Foreign Affairs, Jan./Feb.lexis]
AS LIKELY as is conflict in Mexico, there is even less hope for Saudi Arabia and if the kingdom succumbs to civil war, the outcome will be catastrophic not just for the United States but for the world. … Cutting the Saudi pipeline today would cause a severe worldwide recession or depression. Short of physical attack, it is the gravest threat imaginable to American interests.
Economic decline causes protectionism and transition wars
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict…s tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not specifically consider the occurrence of and conditions created by economic crises.
And instability opens up Iran meddling
Murphy ’10 (Caryle Murphy, Correspondent for CSM, “Yemen: Why it’s a bigger problem for Saudi than US”, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0121/Yemen-Why-it-s-a-bigger-problem-for-Saudi-than-US, January 21, 2010, LEQ)
But both Washington’s concerns and its promises of aid pale in comparison to those of Saudi Arabia, …deteriorating stability could present an opportunity for meddling by Saudi Arabia’s regional nemesis Iran,
Iran meddling kills Saudi stability and leads to Saudi Iran war
Atarodi ’10 (Alexander Atarodi, FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, “Yemen in Crisis – Consequences for the Horn of Africa”, http://www.foi.se/FOI/templates/PublicationPage____171.aspx?qu=Yemen%20in%20Crisis&au=&yr=&fomr=&sort=ar%20DES, April 14, 2010, LEQ)
Possible Iranian engagement in Yemen is not a new phenomenon. … involved in Yemen’s current development in one way or another, this raises concerns about a possible confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran/Saudi war causes global spillover and war
Chaulia ’11 (Sreeram Chaulia, Vice Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India, and the author of the forthcoming book, ‘International Organizations and Civilian Protection: Power, Ideas and Humanitarian Aid in Conflict Zones' (IB Tauris), “War stalks revolution in Middle East”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MC22Ak03.html, March 22, 2011, LEQ)
Historically, there is a strong sequential correlation between revolution and inter-state war… Iranian counter punch to the GCC in Bahrain through proxy warriors or by stirring up Shi'ite rebellion in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Shi'ite-majority Eastern Province threatens escalation into a major Middle Eastern inter-state war,
Middle East War risk extinction
Russell 9 (Senior Lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs @ Nava Postgraduate School (James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” Online)
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests … such an outcome, which would be an unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Contention 3 is Solvency
The plan solves – improving civil law enforcement capabilities is crucial for short and long term success against AQAP
Peter Knoetgne, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, May 16, 2011, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil,
Any post-Saleh government will face a significant challenge in keeping the country from plunging into a bloody conflict… law-enforcement agencies which truly understand policing operations should take the lead, with military or intelligence experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.
The plan is key to a stable transition to long term peace and stability- the US is key
April Longley Alley holds a master's degree in Arab studies and a doctorate in government from Georgetown University. A former Fulbright Fellow, she is the author most recently of "The Rules of the Game: Unpacking Patronage Politics in Yemen," which appeared in the Summer 2010 issue of the Middle East Journal. Journal of Democracy Volume 21, Number 4, October 2010 E-ISSN: 1086-3214 Print ISSN: 1045-5736 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2010.0016 Yemen's Multiple Crises
The international community, and particularly the U.S. government, also present obstacles to the dialogue process. The international community likes to talk about taking a "holistic approach" to Yemen's challenges, but has done nothing concrete to link political reform with security objectives… international efforts to stabilize Yemen should prioritize democratic reform, and be arranged so as to help rather than hinder Yemeni initiatives to achieve peaceful political change through dialogue and compromise.
US Action is uniquely key – the symbolic weight of US actions are critical to an effective transition of power – only the plan changes the hearts and minds of the Yemeni people
Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program at American Progress, et al., CAP, July 12, 2011, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html
The United States has little capacity to force political change in Yemen… drones are not a sustainable way to check AQAP’s advances—only a stable government that is capable of responding to the needs of its people can accomplish that.
Only US action solves – critical to reverse Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP
Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)
It is becoming increasingly clear that the departure of Ali Abdullah Saleh from power as president of Yemen is more about “when” it will occur rather than “if.” … The stronger the relationship between the Yemeni people and the United States, the less likely al-Qaeda will have a safe haven within which to launch attacks against the United States.
