2NR Card
More link evidence
Myers and Gladstone, 12-16 (Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting from Washington, Rick Gladstone from New York and an employee of The New York Times from Beirut. “Impatient Protesters Convulse Syria as Russia Offers New Resolution,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/world/middleeast/impatient-protesters-convulse-syria-as-russia-offers-new-resolution.html#h[TRhTir,3])
“And hopefully, we can work with
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their last chance to stake out some influence.”
Working Party on Aid Effectiveness, ‘9 oecd, http://toolkit.ineesite.org/toolkit/INEEcms/uploads/1023/International_Good_Practice_Principles.pdf
The Accra Agenda for Action 4 2008 recognises
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donors to facilitate the division of labour process.
2NC – Assad Inevitable
Middle class support – without that the opposition will fail.
Idrees 1-12. [Akrum, Muslim Engineer, “Why the Assad regime is still in power” Bertelsmann Foundation -- http://futurechallenges.org/local/why-assad-regime-is-still-in-power/]
After almost 10 months of unprecedented protests calling
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still believe that Assad is Syria’s best option.
Assad is here to stay – multiple factors.
Spyer 12-18. [Jonathan, senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel, "Word of Caution on Assad's Fall," www.gloria-center.org/2011/12/word-of-caution-on-assads-fall-/]
And yet, observers should be careful before
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will probably be around for a while yet.
Fear of post-Assad scenario consolidates his power.
Ali 1-19. [S. Faisal Ali, Arab News, "Assad’s confidence may prove misplaced," arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article565014.ece]
Perhaps he has reasons to believe that there
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trained and enjoys the confidence of the government.
Their evidence is biased – ignores recent polling data that most Syrians support Assad
Steele 1-17. [Jonathan, "Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from western media," The Guardian -- www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/17/syrians-support-assad-western-propaganda]
Suppose a respectable opinion poll found that most
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militias raging across sectarian and ethnic fault lines.
Their defections cards are wrong.
Seale 1-17. [Patrick, leading British writer on the Middle East, "Can the Assad Regime Survive?" www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=50088]
The most important asset which keeps the regime
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by the street protesters or the exiled opposition.
Business class and military support.
Ginsberg 1-13. [Marc, former US Ambassador to Morocco, "Can Assad's "Iron Fist" Be Broken?” Huffington Post -- www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-marc-ginsberg/can-assads-iron-fist-be-b_b_1205408.html]
All of this is to say that if
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. Does anyone have a magic lamp handy?
Assad is inevitable – answers all their warrants
Mead 11 (Walter Russell, You know who he be, "Assad’s Survival Plan," http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/08/13/assads-survival-plan/, AD: 9/25/11) jl
On the other hand, Assad still holds
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offer whatever he needs to balance the Turks.
Assad will stay in power now.
Hesain 11 - Ed Husain, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies @ CFR, Why Assad Need Not Fear Qaddafi’s Fate, Council on Foreign Relations, August 23, 2011, http://www.cfr.org/syria/why-assad-need-not-fear-qaddafis-fate/p25702
The dramatic scenes in Tripoli are already being
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, the middle-classes and business leaders.
Business community will stick with Assad – they are key.
Slim 11 – Randa, an adjunct research fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East Institute, Where’s Syria’s Business Community, Foreign Policy, 8-5, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community
The decision by the
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current regime. What could change their course?
Their evidence is opposition propaganda.
Swami 8-26-11 – Praveen, Inside Syria's failed rebellion, The Hindu, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article2397096.ece
Ever since the spring uprising in Syria,
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alive with everyday civic life than New Delhi.
Assad will splinter opposition groups – prevents an effective transition
Aharam Online 11 ("Head of German intelligence sees no regime change in Syria," http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/17813/World/Region/Head-of-German-intelligence-sees-no-regime-change-.aspx, AD: 9/22/11) jl
German intelligence dismissed that a change in the
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to force a change in the ruling regime.
2NC – No Opposition
Can’t solve – threshold for solvency is too high.
AMEC 12. [Afro-Middle East Centre, “Unraveling the Syrian Crisis” – AMEC: established in 98, ‘aims to foster, produce and disseminate the highest quality of research on the Middle East,’ The Centre’s staff and research associates are sought after by the media to provide commentary and analysis on issues relating to the Middle East, the Islamic world and Africa. They have been interviewed by or have provided expert analysis to BBC, Al-Jazeera, the South African Broadcasting Corporation’s television and radio channels, SABC News International, Channel Africa, eTV and eTV News Channel, CNBC Africa, various other television and radio channels]
Despite all kinds of movement, diplomatic activity
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entail the end of one-party rule.
The U.S. should stay out- Assad is too strong
Landis 8-24 [“Washington's battle over Syria.” Joshua Landis is the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor at the University of Oklahoma. He writes the blog Syria Comment, where this was originally published.]
The realists argue that the U.S
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. should not be trying to decide it.
2NC – Fracturing Turn
*US action on Syria kills the opposition – the plan causes the regime to target opposition leaders – turns the case
Landis 11 [Joshua, August 9 “Syrians must win the revolution on their own”, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma -http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own
A growing chorus of policy experts in Washington
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the flight of Iraq's upper and middle classes.
Syria opposes US intervention – perceives it as imperialism
Doyle 6-14-11 (“Why foreign intervention is not welcome in Syria,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/14/syria-intervention-west)
To intervene or not to intervene? Having
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other according to their own self-interest."
Here’s more evidence – foreign intervention is the root cause of disunity – turns the aff.
Sen 1-6. [Ashish Kumar, “Syrian opposition row over foreign military action nixes unity effort” Washington Times -- http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/6/syrian-opposition-row-over-foreign-military-action/?page=all]
Efforts by the U.S. and
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gain legitimacy through their dialogue with the SNC.”
2NC Alt Caus to Cred
Impact’s inevitable---they don’t change Obama’s broader foreign policy or personality.
Hanson 9. [Victor Davis, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply]
Dr. Hanson: Well, he answered
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to the left of them since Franklin Roosevelt.
The Arab Spring isn’t key to heg.
James Traub is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and a fellow of the Center on International Cooperation, “Twilight in Manhattan, Dawn in Tripoli,” 9/9/2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/09/twilight_in_manhattan_dawn_in_tripoli?page=0,1
There is a very real danger that our
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we've been through, that's a good thing.
Alt causes massively outweigh the plan.
Kim R. Holmes, a former assistant secretary of state, is a vice president at the Heritage Foundation, “Muslim World still anti-Western Despite Obama,” 7/27/2011, http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2011/07/muslim-world-still-anti-western-despite-obama
Here’s the rub: The U.S
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rather than objective reactions to what we do.
2NC Leadership Inevitable
Perception of US power strong now.
Bandow 10 (Doug Bandow, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11143, January 19, 2010, LEQ)
The U.S. has no great
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share of global military outlay hits 80 percent.
It’s inevitable – allies won’t abandon us.
Walt 12-5. [Stephen M., Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University, December 5, 2011, “Does the U.S. still need to reassure its allies?,” online: http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/05/us_credibility_is_not_our_problem]
A perennial preoccupation of U.S.
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most cases little incentive to actually do it.
2NC – Cred – No Impact to Cred
Credibility is inevitable – not key to cooperation.
Wohlforth 9—Daniel Webster Professor of Government, Dartmouth. BA in IR, MA in IR and MPhil and PhD in pol sci, Yale (William and Stephen Brooks, Reshaping the World Order, March / April 2009, Foreign Affairs Vol. 88, Iss. 2; pg. 49, 15 pgs)
FOR ANALYSTS such as Zbigniew Brzezinski and
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legitimacy to shepherd reform of the international system.
2NC LFB Inevitable
Obama doctrine is here to stay – defense cuts prove
Wehner, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1/6/2012
[Peter, “The Defense Budget and America’s Decline,” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/01/06/defense-budget-america-decline/]
There are many salient points to make about
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than the defense budget for confirmation of that.
Obama thought Libya was a success – proves he’ll use the lead from behind strategy in the future.
Barry 11. [Ben, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare @ Int’l Institute for Strategic Studies, “Libya’s Lessons” Survival, Vol 53 Issue 5]
President Obama will feel his decision to ‘
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influence over selection of targets and operational planning.
2NC Heg Defense
Data disproves hegemony impacts
Fettweis 11 Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO
It is perhaps worth noting that there is
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think otherwise base their view on faith alone.
Hegemony is no longer stabilizing
Bandow 11 -- Senior Fellow @ the CATO Institute (Doug, " Solving the Debt Crisis: A Military Budget for a Republic," Jan 31st, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12746)
More than two decades after the Cold War
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take more provocative positions against their potential adversaries.
Heg decline will be peaceful - deductive and empirical evidence goes negative
Parent 11—assistant for of pol sci, U Miami. PhD in pol sci, Columbia—and—Paul MacDonald—assistant prof of pol sci, Williams (Joseph, Graceful Decline?;The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment, Intl. Security, Spring 1, p. 7)
Some observers might dispute our conclusions, arguing
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performance or engage in foreign policy adventurism. 9
Their laundry list of vague impacts is academic junk – conflicts can’t just emerge
Fettweis, 11 Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO
Assertions that without the combination of U.
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assured, with or without the United States.
Even if heg is good, US wouldn’t deploy – offshore balancing and nukes solve the impact
Adams 11. (Gordon, Professor U.S. Foreign Policy Program – American University, Distinguished Fellow – Stimson Center, “A Leaner and Meaner Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Iss. 1, January/February)
Some people point to China as a successor
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mission, governance reform, and economic development.
Either collapse is inev from economy or it solve the internal link
Kaplan 11. (Robert D and Stephen S, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)
But in spite of the seemingly inevitable and
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occasionally steely nerved and always free of illusion.
2NC: No Suez
Iranian officials concede
Erdbrink 12/28
[Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran unlikely to block oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz, analysts say”, The Washington Post, 12-28-2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/despite-threats-iran-unlikely-to-block-oil-shipments-through-strait-of-hormuz/2011/12/28/gIQAVSOSMP_story.html]
And Iran — which has enjoyed record oil
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to the U.S., nothing more.”
2NC: No Israel Impact
Empirics are conclusive
Cook 9. (Steven A, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” 6-9 -- Foreign Affairs)
Yet, despite my best efforts to walk
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ruins of what was Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility.
Israel won’t attack – relations with the US
Cook 9. (Steven A, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” 6-9 -- Foreign Affairs)
Given Israel's perception of an acute Iranian threat
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cautiously when it comes to the United States.
Israel will threaten strikes for deterrence, but won’t follow through
Cook 9. (Steven A, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” 6-9 -- Foreign Affairs)
There is no way of knowing for sure
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will not hear about it first on CNBC.
More empirical ev.
Terrill 9. (W. Andrew, professor of national security affairs – Strategic Studies Institute “Escalation and Intrawar Deterrence During Limited Wars in the Middle East,” September)
This work asserts that the Egyptians and the
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also had serious options for escalating the war.
2NC: IPT = Biased
They make up their own facts – total bias.
Ali et al 11. [Wajahat, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and a Researcher for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Eli Clifton, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and a National Security Reporter for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Matthew Duss, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress and Director of the Center’s Middle East Progress, Lee Fang, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and an Investigative Researcher/Blogger for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Scott Keyes, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and an Investigative Researcher for ThinkProgress.org at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Faiz Shakir, JD @ Georgetown, Vice President at the Center for American Progress and serves as Editor-in-Chief of ThinkProgress.org , “Fear Inc: The Roots of the Islamophobia Network in America” August -- Center for American Progress]
The increasing influence of Islamophobia donors to Emerson’s
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citing research by Steven Emerson and Daniel Pipes.
More ev.
Ali et al 11. [Wajahat, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and a Researcher for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Eli Clifton, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and a National Security Reporter for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Matthew Duss, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress and Director of the Center’s Middle East Progress, Lee Fang, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and an Investigative Researcher/Blogger for the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Scott Keyes, Researcher at the Center for American Progress and an Investigative Researcher for ThinkProgress.org at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, Faiz Shakir, JD @ Georgetown, Vice President at the Center for American Progress and serves as Editor-in-Chief of ThinkProgress.org , “Fear Inc: The Roots of the Islamophobia Network in America” August -- Center for American Progress]
There are five key think tanks led by
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the Islamic social order all over the world.”
2NC Impact Calc – Korea War
Even a small war means extinction
Hayes and Green 2009 – Professor of International Relations at RMIT University; Dean of and Professor in the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development at Victoria University (Peter Hayes & Michael Hamel-Green, “Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia,” Asian Pacific Journal)
The international community is increasingly aware that cooperative
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that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
Kim Jong-il’s death has raised the risk of instability and escalation
Reuters, 12-19 (Analysis: U.S. seeks Korea stability but influence limited, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/20/us-korea-north-stability-idUSTRE7BJ02H20111220)
But less than two months later, North
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Monday expressed confidence North Korea would remain united.
AT – No Korean War
Brinkmanship makes miscalculation inevitable
Cronin ’10 (12/21/2010 (Patrick - senior adviser and senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, Three paths to war on the korean peninsula, CNN, p. http://edition.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/12/20/cronin.north.korea.dangers/?hpt=C1)
Conflict could erupt inadvertently in various ways.
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escalate into war, however short-lived.
Deterrence doesn’t check – nuclearization changes the calculus
Kuhn ’10 (12/20/2010 (David - chief political correspondent for Real Clear Politics, Second korean war suddenly possible, Real Clear Politics, p. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/12/20/second_korean_war_suddenly_possible__108294.html)
"I'm worried this is not just another
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the world's most modern and densely populated cities.
2NC Syria Frontline
Obama is doing nothing on Syria.
Glick 12-30. [Caroline, MA in Public Policy @ Harvard’s Kennedy School of Gov’t, “Column One; Obama’s foreign policy spin” Jerusalem Post -- http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=251505]
In Syria, while the administration insists that
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wield over the shape of things to come.
AT: invade
No Intervention by Anyone and Syrian opposition will say no.
BBC News 1-17-12. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16597015
. There has been little suggestion from other
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and neither is likely, our correspondent adds.
Russia will veto.
VOA News 1-18-12. http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2012/01/18/russia-vows-to-block-military-intervention-in-syria/
Russia has vowed to block any Western attempts
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Russia is a key military ally of Syria.
AT: Cave
Russia wont cave– Syria is their chief ally in the Mid East
Gutterman, Reuters staff, 1-17 [Steve, “Syria Uprising: Russia Keeps Up Support For Ally”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/17/syria-russia_n_1211057.html]
Russia signalled on Tuesday it would not
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to discuss all questions with our Western partners."
AT – Russia Will Cave/Won’t Fight for Syria
Their Abdul-Hussein evidence says the SNC has guaranteed Russia interests if Assad falls – the plan causes other opposition groups to succeed -- makes Russia influence decline inevitable
Russia won't ever abandon Assad
Karasik 12/9 "Explaining Russia's policy toward Syria - Analysis" Director, Research and Consultancy, INEGMA www.eurasiaview.com/09122011-explaining-Russias-policy-toward-syria-analysis?cid=nlc-dailybrief-daily_news_brief-link7-2011214
Some observers of the Moscow-Damascus relationship
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as Syria moves towards the brink of disaster.
AT: Doesn’t Fear Other
No link – Russia fears the SNC but NOT the internal opposition.
Martin, 1-14
[Patrick, Russia stands shoulder-to-shoulder with besieged Syrian leader, The Globe and Mail, 1-14-2012, http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russia-stands-shoulder-to-shoulder-with-besieged-syrian-leader/article2302589/?service=mobile]
Russia has its own plan for resolving the
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Western-backed Syrian National Council (SNC).
Turns and Solves – Whole Aff
Russia solves slow, stable reform now – the plan boxes them out of Syria and causes violence
Day Press News, 1/17/2012, "A “Russian Initiative” to guide Syria," www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=108761
Contrary to what many people believe, the
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a thing called “opposition” in Syria.
Russia solves case
Moubayed ’1-7 (Middle East Jan 7, 2012 15 Sami Moubayed is a university professor, historian, and editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria. Russia's 'democracy package' for Syria By Sami Moubayed
The new system, in theory, would
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fingerprints, and guarantees, all over it.
The US has to let Russia lead on Syria
Moubayed ’1-7 (Middle East Jan 7, 2012 15 Sami Moubayed is a university professor, historian, and editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria. Russia's 'democracy package' for Syria By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The Russians have been talking a
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so will their influence in the Arab world.
Turns – Middle East
Russia key to ME stability and the aff can’t win offense: the Mid-East wants Russian presence
NEMTSOVA ‘10 (Anna, is a Moscow-based correspondent for Newsweek magazine, Jun 04, “Russia aims to regain Middle East influence”, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/culture/7803263/Russia-aims-to-regain-Middle-East-influence.html)
"We really wish Medvedev could play a
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peace and stability" in the Middle East.
Encroachment on Russia’s sphere of influence will cause it to be the spoiler to the plan – DA flips back case
SADI ‘7 Waleed Sadi, former Jordian ambassador to Turkey and the United Nations, 12/4/2007, Without Russia, the US Faces Middle Eastern Frustration, The Daily Star, p. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=87208
Putin has employed different means to counter this
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its policies in the Middle East to fruition.
Turns – Heg
Backlash over Syria jacks heg
Baker ‘8 (By PETER BAKER Published: August 21, 2008)
The president of Syria spent two days this
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now we could see the realization of that.
Turns – Iran
Meddling in Russia sphere of influence cause sale of the S-300- turns Iran
Sherwell ‘8 (Russia threatens to supply Iran with top new missile system as 'cold war' escalates Russia is deploying the threat to sell a "game changing" air defence system to Iran as a high stakes bargaining chip in its new "cold war" with America, The Sunday Telegraph has learned. By Philip Sherwell in New York and William Lowther in Washington Last Updated: 1:42AM BST 31 Aug 2008 Dmitry Medvedev [right] speaks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during their bilateral meeting in Dushanbe on August 28, 2008 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev [right] speaks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during their bilateral meeting in Dushanbe on August 28, 2008 Photo: AFP/GETTY)
US intelligence fears the Kremlin will supply the
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the world to the edge of a precipice."
Strong Russia key to deter Iran
VOA News 7/29/09 (Voice of America News. “Can Russia Influence Iran to Curb Its Nuclear Ambitions?” http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-07-21-voa54.cfm)
Many experts say whether Tehran decides to curtail
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key to achieving that diplomatically," he said.
Russia Impacts – Econ, Naval Heg, Terror, Turns – Middle East
Russia influence key to its naval power and defense industry
Wilson ‘11 (Michael, Bashar al-Assad: Moscow’s Indispensable Man, Middle Eastern Analysis, Oct 13, http://middleeasternanalysis.wordpress.com/)
The Assad regime plays an important role in
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the Russian military industry with much needed revenue.
Russian economic decline causes nuclear war
Filger ‘9 (Sheldon, author and blogger for the Huffington Post, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction” http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)
In Russia historically, economic health and political
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Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.
Russian naval power is critical to solve regional war, terrorism and economy—also maintains overall Russian power and nuclear deterrence
Vego ‘9 (MILAN VEGO is a professor of operations at the Joint Military Operations Department at the Naval War College, “The Russian Navy revitalized,” Armed Forces Journal, May, http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2009/05/3989255/)
he Russian Navy today is not nearly as
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and oceans and along the continental shelf zone.
