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*1AC*
CONTENTION 1 IS THE STATUS QUO

Despite Saleh’s deal- Yemen is still in a state of chaos
AP 9/13 (AP, “President's offer triggers new protests in Yemen”, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/09/13/ap/middleeast/main20105527.shtml, September 13, 2011, LEQ)

(AP)  SANAA, Yemen — Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across Yemen …f Zinjibar, in Abyan province, and that the military is battling for 

CONTENTION 2 IS TERRORISM

Despite recent success, Al Qaeda has reconstituted in Yemen and has begun organizing plots against the US
Greg Miller, The Washington Post, “U.S. officials believe al-Qaeda on brink of collapse”, July 26, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/al-qaeda-could-collapse-us-officials-say/2011/07/21/gIQAFu2pbI_print.html

U.S. counterterrorism officials are increasingly convinced that the killing of Osama bin Laden and the toll of seven years of CIA drone strikes have pushed al­Qaeda to the brink of collapse…, has emerged as the most dangerous of those affiliates. The group is responsible for recent plots, including the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner in 2009 and the attempt to mail parcels packed with explosives to U.S. addresses last year. 

And AQAP is international – Yemen would be a base for global operations
Boucek ‘9 (Christopher Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for Peace, CNN, “Yemen's Problems Will Not Stay in Yemen”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2009/12/30/yemen-s-problems-will-not-stay-in-yemen/3zw, December 30, 2009, LEQ)

In recent days, international attention has refocused on the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Yemen. The claim of responsibility for the attack on Northwest flight 253 on December 25 by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has underscored the fact that Yemen's problems will not stay in Yemen. In the absence of … recently said to me, "We've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends."  

Also instability is enabling AQAP to control key cities and access to ports
David Eshel, (IDF veteran and experienced writer in the world's leading defense publications for many years, “Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate””, NEWS ANALYSIS, July 26th, 2011, http://defense-update.com/20110726_al_qaeda_in_yemen.html)

Yemen has become a nightmare come true for the United States as al Qaeda Jihadist and Islamist militants take advantage of … Although substantial troop deployment on Yemen territory seems impractical, to say the least, depending on Saudi intervention would also prove counter productive if not devastating in its results

We’ll isolate a few scenarios – first is attack on America 

The Yemeni safe haven is essential to a large-scale attack
Arkedis 2k (Jim Arkedis is the director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007.  “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, Foreign Policy, October 23, 2009, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)
 
As deliberations about the Obama administration's strategic direction in Afghanistan unfold, the White House is weighing whether al Qaeda, in fact, needs an Afghan safe haven  an expanse of land under the protection of the Taliban  to reconstitute its capability to attack … the U.S. president's best bet is to deny al Qaeda the only physical space it can access. 

Al Qaeda is on the verge of massive attacks using WMD – they have the capabilities and attacks are imminent
Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html

Al-Qaida is on the verge of producing radioactive weapons after sourcing nuclear material and recruiting … “could gradually smuggle enough material out to make a weapon”, according to a document detailing official talks in London in February 2009. 

Retaliation causes nuclear war
Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchange—are not necessarily separable. It is just possible that some sort of terrorist attack, … Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force) against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow?

Even a failed attack would cause retaliation
Mosher ‘3 (2003, Beyond the Nuclear Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Safety and U.S-Russian Relations  By: David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz, David R. Howell, Lynn E. Davis    

The third and fourth situations involve the explosion of a nuclear weapon in or near … surrounding the incident leads the national command authority to conclude the country is under attack and to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike against the other country. 

Second is U.S. Intervention

A successful attack would cause the US to intervene
Dr. W. Andrew Terrill is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks PA, “Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah”, November 1, 2010, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Preventing-Yemen-from-Becoming-Fallujah/2010/11/1

In the rapidly mutating world of international terrorist organizations, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has become one of the most serious threats facing the United States. … planners need to consider ways to address the problems that may be associated with an expanded aid program while seeking continuing input from those on the ground on how such programs can be improved. In the end, this struggle will be won by strategy and not brute force.


Full military intervention in Yemen would cause overstretch and kill heg
Marc Lynch, Foreign Policy, “Don't lose perspective on Yemen”, Saturday, January 2, 2010, http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/02/bad_ideas_on_yemen

Direct American military intervention in Yemen is so obviously ludicrous that it shouldn't even need to be said. Even the hyper-interventionist conservatives at the Washington Post op-ed page allow that "U.S. ground troops are not needed, for now." They never should be. The U.S. is already struggling to fully resource and equip a mission in Afghanistan … I've always thought that the global COIN conception is a recipe for overstretch and exhaustion, as the frontier endlessly recedes and American resources are
This crushes military readiness and our ability to deter
Perry et. al., January 2006 (William- former secretary of defense and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, The U.S. Military, The National Security Advisory Group, p. 11)

• If recruiting trends do not improve over the next year, the Army – both active and reserve – will experience great difficulty fully manning its planned force structure … Although the United States can still deploy air, naval, and other more specialized assets to deter or respond to aggression, the visible overextension of our ground forces has the potential to significantly weaken our ability to deter and respond to some contingencies.

Decline causes nuclear great power conflict - empirical studies prove
Khalilzad 11 (Zalmay, Former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the UN and Former Director of Policy Planning @ the DOD, “The Economy and National Security,” February 8th, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad?page=3)

The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership. …, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. 

Third is strategy shift:

Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift
Cilluffo ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)

Debates over the legality of pursuing AQAP in Yemen through drones and SOF create unnecessary seams in our nation’s fight against a seamless … Pursuing this approach will also provide the U.S. an additional litmus test for creating a new long-run counterterrorism strategy in a post-bin Laden world. However, the present window of opportunity will close quickly – the U.S. must act now to prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.


The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation
Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

.The end of the Bush Administration poses an opportunity to rethink U.S. counter-terrorism policies, with an eye towards re-tailoring those policies to boost international cooperation … has an unprecedented opportunity to shape international cooperation for years to come on key issues surrounding counter-terrorism.

This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect
Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has failed to become the dominant frame for American foreign policy, in part because these criticisms unsettled even steadfast American allies, … The counter-balancing effects of American unilateralism would render even modest attempts at cooperation over security matters more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable
Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis
The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use that we began building after Hiroshima and Nagasaki has held for well over half a century now. … rather than one that deals in confrontation and raw military power. If they are obliged to play the traditional great-power game of winners and losers, then history will repeat itself and everybody loses.

CONTENTION 3 IS SAUDI ARABIA

Yemen’s weak government is causing Saudi instability due to Houthi rebels
Atarodi ’10 (Alexander Atarodi, FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, “Yemen in Crisis – Consequences for the Horn of Africa”, March 2010, LEQ)

Recently, Saudi Arabia’s territory has been attacked by Yemeni Houthi rebels. The Saudis connect the rebels with al-Qaeda militants … Yemen is thus critically important to the security and stability of Saudi Arabia.92

Collapse of Yemen would destroy Saudi Arabia due to instability and refugee flow- they are linked
Horton ’11 (Michael Horton is a Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. He also writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Digest, Islamic Affairs Analyst, and the Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Horton studied Middle East History and Economics at the American University of Cairo and Arabic at the Center for Arabic Language and Eastern Studies in Yemen. Michael frequently travels to Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, The Jamestown Foundation, “The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen”, http://global-security-news.com/2011/04/07/the-unseen-hand-saudi-arabian-involvement-in-yemen/, April 7, 2011, LEQ)

The future of Yemen is inextricably linked to the stability and security of Saudi Arabia…. This kind of change would be replete with dangers
Saudi instability kills the global economy
EC ’11 (Economic Collapse, Blog, Citing Experts, “5 Dollar Gas? Get Ready To Pay An Arm And A Leg For Gasoline”, http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/5-dollar-gas-get-ready-to-pay-an-arm-and-a-leg-for-gasoline/comment-page-1, February 23, 2011, LEQ) 

If revolution strikes in Saudi Arabia … a peaceful Saudi Arabia the price of gasoline in the United States is already rising to alarming levels.

Economic decline causes protectionism and war due to power transitions
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. … tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not specifically consider the occurrence of and conditions created by economic crises. As such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Houthi rebels are distinct from Al-Qaeda- risk proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran
Harnisch ‘9 (Chris Harnisch,  former Research Analyst and Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the Critical Threats Project. His research focuses on al Qaeda and its associated movements. He has briefed members of the House and the Senate on Yemen and Somalia, and he has published articles on the Islamist threat in those countries in numerous publications. He graduated with high honors from Middlebury College with a degree in International Studies, concentrating on the Middle East and Arabic. Prior to joining AEI, Chris served on the staff of Vice President Dick Cheney. Chris has lived and studied in Yemen and Egypt, “A Critical War in a Fragile Country: Yemen's Battle with the Shiite al Houthi Rebels”, http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/critical-war-fragile-country-yemens-battle-shiite-al-houthi-rebels, August 31, 2009, LEQ)

Fighting raging in the North of Yemen between the government and Shiite al-Houthi rebels could have a significant impact on Middle East and U.S. security, as well as Yemen’s own survival.  … may result in the continued diversion and exhaustion of resources to the North, thereby precluding the State from adequately combating its two other security threats.

Continued Yemeni instability causes Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy wars
Bipartisan Policy Center 2011 (Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3)

Were the situation to deteriorate further, and Yemen to fail completely, the United States would likely witness a security vacuum on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. … have persisted, indeed thrived, in Yemen by exploiting these weaknesses and the state’s resultant lack of legitimacy.

Iran/Saudi war spills over to the Middle East
Chaulia ’11 (Sreeram Chaulia, Vice Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India, and the author of the forthcoming book, ‘International Organizations and Civilian Protection: Power, Ideas and Humanitarian Aid in Conflict Zones' (IB Tauris), “War stalks revolution in Middle East”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MC22Ak03.html, March 22, 2011, LEQ)

Historically, there is a strong sequential correlation between revolution and inter-state war. Radical … the centerpiece of a world war, it is the United States. 

Middle East War risk extinction
Russell 9 (Senior Lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs @ Nava Postgraduate School (James, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” Online)

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric … such an outcome, which would be an unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world. 

Independently- Saudi fears of insecurity due to Iran meddling cause them to proliferate through Pakistan
Downing 6/2 (Brian M Downing, Brian M Downing is a political/military analyst and author of The Military Revolution and Political Change and The Paths of Glory: War and Social Change in America from the Great War to Vietnam, 6/2/11, " Pakistan marches to Saudi tune ", http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MF03Ak02.html, LEQ) 

Ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are long-standing but for the most part have not stood out in the turbulent affairs of the region. … The opinions of Washington are of decreasing interest in Riyadh, Islamabad, and Pakistan's military capital, Rawalpindi.

Spills over to broader Middle East
Blank ‘3 (Stephen Blank is an analyst of international security affairs residing in Harrisburg, PA, “Saudi Arabia's nuclear gambit”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK07Ak01.html, 2003, LEQ)

Furthermore, there are still more considerations. If one looks at the history of Pakistan's nuclear program … crossroads of radicalism and technology becomes that much more real.

Global nuclear war
Bar 11[Dr. Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. He served for thirty years in the Israeli intelligence community and since 2002 has headed research projects – many of them for U.S. government agencies – on issues such as Iranian defense doctrine, negotiating behavior and susceptibility to signaling, command and control culture in the Middle East, potential paradigms of command and control over nuclear weapons in Middle Eastern regimes, deterrence of terrorism, the influence of religion on deterrence, and implications of a polynuclear Middle East, among others, “Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to a Nuclear Iran?”, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2011]

A nuclear Middle East will be very … the absence of a credible second strike capability may well strengthen the tendency to opt for a first strike.

CONTENTION 4 IS SOLVENCY

The plan solves – improving civil law enforcement capabilities is crucial for short and long term success against AQAP
Knoetgen ’11 (Peter Knoetgne, CEJISS, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, May 16, 2011)

But even before the so-called Halloween Package Incident many in the US government, including the CIA, had characterised AQAP as the world’s most dangerous terror organisation.2 Today, the Obama Administration regards AQAP as ‘the most operationally active node of the al-Qaeda network,’ surpassing even its AFPAK cousin.3 Although the revolutionary spirit of … Organisations like the FBI, DEA, Coast Guard, Border Patrol, and the State Department’s Office of Antiterrorism Assistance (ATA) could lend decades’ worth of insights in support of this effort. 

Departure of Saleh now makes this key- the plan reverses Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP
Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)

The possible departure of Saleh from power is a unique opportunity for the United States to establish a new relationship with the Yemeni government as well as its people. … The stronger the relationship between the Yemeni people and the United States, the less likely al-Qaeda will have a safe haven within which to launch attacks against the United States.

Law enforcement training is essential to creating a mechanism of information exchange
Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf

In the international effort to combat terrorism, it has become utterly clear, … track the activity of terrorist networks to thwart attacks in the planning stage before they can be executed. The cooperation between US, British, and Pakistani law enforcement officials that foiled a terrorist conspiracy to blow up as many as ten transatlantic flights bound for American cities in August 2006 is a case in point.

That information exchange mechanism is essential to succeeding against Al Qaeda
Derek Reveron is an associated professor at the Naval War College, an editorial board member of the Defense Intelligence Journal, and a long-time intelligence analyst, “Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence Sharing in the War on Terror”, Summer 2006, http://derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf 

Intelligence is the first line of defense against terrorism. … intelligence partnerships based on common security interests, and today, these are vital in almost every counterterrorism operation (arrest, interrogation, or kill). The United States simply does not have the resources or expertise to fight itself a long, complex war waged by terrorists with a global reach; a coalition offers the means to manage the “paradox of plenty” that the information revolution created. 

This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange
Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/

AQAP’s ability to survive the American-Yemeni campaign stems from …, America need to concentrate less on increasing firepower and more on cultivating manpower in the form of competent military allies and reliable local intelligence assets. 

PLAN TEXT

Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its support for civil law training programs in Yemen.

• 
  

•    PLAN SOLVES ALT CAUSE

  Plan solves alt cuases
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, "Higher Stakes in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 14, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/14/higher-stakes-in-yemen/1rl)

  This current political crisis is the biggest ………… other issues, the better. 

  More ev
  Lewis ’11 (Alexandra Lewis is a researcher and doctoral candidate at the Post-War Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of York., “Stabilizing Yemen”, http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Stabilizing_Yemen, February 16, 2011)
  
  If Yemen's crises are to be overcome through ……….. Let us do so by helping fragile states to generate security and prosperity at the same time for their own people, without making government policy makers choose between financing one or the other.

     2AC- THUMPER FRONTLINE
  1AC Roach and Simcox
  Drones/ engagement/ new bases

  United states engaging with Yemen now- triggers their link
  Klapper 9/23 (Bradley Klapper, AP News, “US caught off guard by Saleh's return to Yemen”,http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/15535703/us-caught-off-guard-by-salehs-return-to-yemen, September 23, 2011, LEQ)

  WASHINGTON (AP) - The Obama administration …………. people are in the streets of Sanaa today and the tensions are high."

  Obama increasing drone strikes
  Raston 9/26 (Dina Temple- Raston, “In The Hunt For Al-Qaida, Drone Program Expands”,http://www.npr.org/2011/09/26/140807753/in-the-hunt-for-al-qaida-drone-program-expands, September 26, 2011, LEQ)

  U.S. Army Sgt. Don Stolle launches a Raven surveillance drone …………In other words, the drone attacks in Pakistan have been so effective in attacking al-Qaida's core leadership, the U.S. is going to try the same tactic elsewhere — where the threat from al-Qaida is growing, specifically in Yemen and Somalia.

  AT: SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONS DA

  This disad is too old- Saudi Arabia changed their position this summer which makes it not applicable anymore in the context of the aff

  Saudi Arabia relations low now- Palestine vote
  CA 9/21 (Crossroads Arabia is written by a former US foreign service officer who has had two tours in Saudi Arabia, 1981-83, 2001-03, who reads and speaks Arabic and has spent the bulk of his career in the Middle East, with assignments in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Bahrain in addition to those in the KSA, “Saudis and U.S. Clash Over Palestine Vote”,http://mideastposts.com/2011/09/21/saudis-and-u-s-clash-over-palestine-vote/, September 21, 2011, LEQ)
  
  The Saudi-US Relations Information Service – SUSRIS – runs ………. been an outspoken champion among Saudis for Palestinian rights and the tenor of his words, especially warnings to Washington have become more intense.
  
  Palestine triggers their link
  SUSRIS 9/16 (Saudi-US Relations Information Service, “Could UN Palestine Vote Alter US-Saudi Relations?”,http://www.susris.com/2011/09/16/could-un-palestine-vote-alter-us-saudi-relations/, September 16, 2011, LEQ)

  As the showdown in the United …………. a PBS “Newshour” report on the UN vote. [Links below]

  Relations are tanking now, no link and Saudi Arabia likes the plan
  Johnsen 11 – former Fulbright fellow in Yemen and currently a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University (Gregory, September, “Resetting U.S. Policy Toward Yemen,”http:www.cfr.org/yemen/resetting-us-policy-toward-yemen/p26026?cid=rss-fullfeed-resetting_u.s._policy_toward_y-092711)
  
  Given the messy and deep-seated problems …………. the lack of a political transition, the danger of AQAP, and the simmering threat of Yemen’s fragile economy.

  US and Saudi cooperating on Yemen now- they’d like the plan
  Sanaa 8/9 (Sanaa, “US, Saudi pressure may keep Yemen leader abroad”,http://www.arabia.msn.com/News/MiddleEast/youm7/2011/August/8197209.aspx?region=all.&featuredAll, August 9, 2011, LEQ)

  SANAA, Yemen — The U.S. and Saudi Arabia …………. subject. Saudi Arabia is among Washington's staunchest Arab allies and has over the past six decades cooperated with the United States on many aspects of Mideast policy.

  No link uniqueness- their evidence already described strains

  Here’s ev-
  Strobel ’11 (Warren P. Strobel, McClatchy News, “'Arab spring' drives wedge between U.S., Saudi Arabia”,http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/24/111034/arab-spring-drives-wedge-between.html, March 24, 2011, LEQ)

  WASHINGTON — The United States and Saudi Arabia — ………. of the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

  Collapse of yemen turns the disad- force competition and proxy war which would lead to Iran aggressionism

  Saudi Arabia would like the plan- they have turned their back on Saleh as a liability
  Haykel ’11 (Bernard Haykel, Foreign Affairs, professor of Near Eastern Studies and the director of the Institute for the Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia at Princeton University, “Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Dilemma”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67892/bernard-haykel/saudi-arabias-yemen-dilemma, June 14, 2011, LEQ)

  Saudi Arabia, perpetually in fear of chaos and instability, is …………. what sort of government will it work to establish in his place?

  The plan solves US-Saudi relations – terrorism is the one definitive area of cooperation and it definitely outweighs your link.
  Boucek 9/12/11 (Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,”http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/12/terrorism-out-of-saudi-arabia/53pw#yemen)

  Saudi Arabia’s influence and interest in combating terrorists ………. countries recognize the importance of the relationship.

  Saudi strains don’t mean collapse and the revolutions will increase relations in the long run
  Zeigler ’11 (Lucien Zeigler, He graduated from the University of Virginia’s Woodrow Wilson Department of Politics with a degree in Foreign Affairs. He is currently Research Director for the Saudi-U.S. Trade Group (SUSTG), a not-for-profit 501-c(6) trade group based in the Washington D.C. area, “Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After ‘Arab Spring’?”,http://informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/, March 18, 2011, LEQ)

  Writing in the UK’s Financial Times, Eurasia Group President Ian …………., this relationship has overcome greater tests, and emerged stronger from each as a result. If history is any guide, current disagreements will be no different, and the so-called “special relationship” 

  Saudi Arabia won’t proliferate – no indigenous capability, they couldn’t buy one, and a U.S. Security Guarantee would be effective
  Posen, 2006
  Barry Posen, professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006, “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult But Not Impossible Policy Problem”, Century Foundation Project,http://tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/posen_nuclear-armed.pdf
  Saudi Arabia would face similar, though stronger temptations, than Egypt. ……………. A U.S. guarantee likely would prove the most attractive option for Saudi Arabia.
                             Saudi Arabia would rather rely on the American security guarantees than develop its own forces and it has no infrastructure so development would be slow.
  Barry R. Posen 2006 “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult but Not Impossible Policy Problem” CENTURY FOUNDATIONhttp://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/posen_nuclear-armed.pdf
  Saudi Arabia would face similar, though stronger temptations, …………….. A U.S. guarantee likely would prove the most attractive option for Saudi Arabia.
  
  No Middle East prolif – History and infrastructure
  James M. Lindsay is Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs, “After Iran Gets the Bomb”, Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2, EBSCO, CMR
  Another danger that would have to be countered would be nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Iran's …………. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto once famously put it, but not everyone is.
  
  Arab proliferators will be opaque and seek stable deterrence over aggression
  Jordan Seng (University of Chicago) June, 1998 “Strategy for Pandora’s Children: Stable Nuclear Proliferation Among Minor States” online
  In addition to the indications that the Israelis …………………, so Middle Eastern states will want to avoid open arms competition with Israel.

  AQAP
  AQAP in Yemen is an international threat – it’s the key internal link to all global terror
  Yuriditsky 9/28 – Associate of the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Lev, “Yemen's Chaos - August 2011,”http://yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html)
  
  As the situation in Yemen deteriorates ………………. andthat he and the AQAP fighters under his order will “fight the enemies without leniency or surrender until Islam rules.”

  AT: POLICE AIMED AT DEMOCRACY
  We meet – civil law enforcement provides political support- gives training to respect rule of law and enables a better Yemeni agency coordination capacity

  Carothers is wrong – empirically, there are multiple facits of police training that are all encompassed by Democracy Assistance – each case is unique*
  Goldstone and Wiatrowski ’10 [Michael D. Wiatrowski was formerly associate professor of criminal justice at Florida Atlantic University and chair of the Criminal Justice Department at Utica College of Syracuse University. As a lieutenantcolonel in the U.S. Army Reserves, he served on police-training missions in Bosnia and Haiti. Jack A. Goldstone is Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University. He chaired the National Academy of Sciences study Improving Democracy Assistance (2008). “The Ballot and the Badge Democratic Policing”, Journal of Democracy, Volume 21, Number 2, April 2010, pp. 79-92]

  The training of police forces has become a common aspect of …………… the numbers and tactical skills of police.

  Counter interpretation – DA includes aid for rule of law, civil society, elections and good governance
  McMahon ‘2, -Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University-2 The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study  
  http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf
  
  U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies …………… that in a country study all of these categories would be shown to reflect across-the-board improvements as a result of U.S. assistance. 

  We meet – we are rule of law
  Timothy E. Wirth, Under Secretary Of State For Global Affairs, Prepared Statement Before The House International Relations Committee, December 1, 1995, http://www.archive.org/stream/democracyruleofl00unit/democracyruleofl00unit_djvu.txt

  At times, Mr. Chairman, the daily ins and ……………. maintain democratic institutions, develop a market economy or protect the rights of its citizens. 

  Doesn’t have to be primary goal
  Richard Lappin, PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven at Belgium, 2010. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches,” CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL & SECURITY STUDIES, Vol 4 Iss 1
  In defining democracy assistance, it is paramount that ……………Democracy  assistance is therefore a very precise instrument within a broader democracy  promotion paradigm.

  AT: CHINA DA

  Taiwan arms sales is crushing military ties
  AFP 9/29 "China says US-Taiwan arms deal to impact exchanges,"http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jALBKQVWFLFWf60ecqmjqkYEcPpg?docId=CNG.137b03504ee11701d0f8f331f5092182.611, AD: 9/30/11) jl
  BEIJING — Beijing said on ………….. to Taiwan" to avoid "serious damage" to US-China military ties.

  Relations are shot – arms sales killed cooperation
  Jiang 9/30 (Wenran, associate professor of political science at the University of Alberta and senior fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada, "The Danger for US-China Ties," http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/30/the-danger-for-us-china-ties/, AD: 9/30/11) jl
  The Obama administration’s decision to ……………….and it’s clear that this is an extremely sensitive period in Sino-US ties 

  Taiwan arms sales make relations decline inevitable
  Jiang 9/30 (Wenran, associate professor of political science at the University of Alberta and senior fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada, "The Danger for US-China Ties," http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/30/the-danger-for-us-china-ties/, AD: 9/30/11) jl
  But in the long run, continued US arms sales to Taiwan ……………. isn’t good news for the United States.

  US is encroaching in China’s sphere of influence now and China will not go to war over distant locations
  FT, 9-14 (Foreign Times, US and Australia tighten military ties, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/11a19e2a-dee6-11e0-9130-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Y0RiR7a1)

  China’s military has repeatedly ………….“They are not co-operating in the South China Sea or close to Taiwan. Unless that were the case or they said explicitly that the co-operation was aimed at China, China is not going to express concern.”

  No link- Yemen oil industry collapsed- impact should have been triggered
  AP ’11 (Associated Press, “Official: Unrest, strikes halt Yemen oil output”,http://wvgazette.com/ap/ApInternational/201105100643?page=2&build=cache, May 10, 2011, LEQ)

  SANAA, Yemen (AP) - Yemen has stopped producing oil …………….. producing both oil and natural gas and holds exploration rights in Yemen.

  Competition with China over energy is inevitable
  Luke Mohr, “Clean Energy & Conservation Viewed as Intelligent Living”, 3/11/2011

  Increases in global health and living ……………Clean energy and conservation need to be viewed as intelligent living and not as bohemian notions. 

     ADDON- CYBERTERRORISM

  Al Qaeda is gearing up for Cyberattacks – they have the capability
  Faryal Leghari is Assistant Editor (Opinion) of Khaleej Times, “Hit C for cyberterrorism”, Jan 29, 2011,http://www.yobserver.com/opinions/10020698.html

  The defining word for the new age is ‘smart’. And it orbits the earth at a million bytes a minute……………….. While a global cybersecurity treaty may still take years to come through, it is time to shape our defenses accordingly.

  That causes nuclear war
  Fritz, 09 – researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University (Jason, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf)

  This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons…………….. A sophisticated and all encompassing combination of traditional terrorism and cyber terrorism could be enough to launch nuclear weapons on its own, without the need for compromising command and control centres directly.

  EU NED COUNTERPLAN
   

  US must take the lead charge- otherwise can’t solve
  Stuster 9/27 (J. Dana Stuster, a Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security, is a writer living in Washington, DC, “What Can the U.S. Really Do for Yemen?”,http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/what-can-the-us-really-do-for-yemen/245688/, September 27, 2011, LEQ)

   "The United States and the international ………….to the same table may be closing.

  Turn- funding Yemen alone just causes corruption- they divert it
  al-Muslimi ’11 (Farea al-Muslimi, FAREA AL-MUSLIMI is a Yemeni activist and writer for Almasdar, “Western silence is complicity in Yemen”, http://www.executive-magazine.com/getarticle.php?article=14106, April 02, 2011, LEQ)

  Ambivalence toward Saleh's atrocities …………… fetched the scissors by now.                                                         

  A. CP results in the US leading from behind – allows US to take credit while EU does heavy lifting
  Carpenter, CATO Institute Senior Fellow, 9-12-11
  [Ted Galen, "Off-load foreign policy problems, don't "lead from behind"", http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13660] 

   As Muammar Gadhafi's regime in Libya …………. for the Libya mission. 

  B. Saps funding from Afghanistan operation
  Erlanger, New York Times Paris Bureau chief, 9-3-11
  [Steven, was the cultural news editor from December 2002 until June 2004. Previously he served as The New York Times’s Berlin bureau chief since August 2001. He was bureau chief for Central Europe and the Balkans, based in Prague, from January 1999 after having served as chief diplomatic correspondent, based in Washington, since January 1996. Before that, he had served nearly four years in the Moscow bureau, first as a correspondent, from March 1992, and then as the bureau chief, from May 1994.,” Libya’s Dark Lesson for NATO”,  http://www.nytimes.com/ref/international/erlanger-bio.html] 

  François Heisbourg, a French …………….. the war in Afghanistan.

  C. Sparks major power wars that go nuclear
  Starr, 1
  (December 13, Chair of Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at John Hopkins University, “The War Against Terrorism and U.S. Bilateral Relations with the Nations of Central Asia,” Testimony before Senate Subcommittee on Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus)

  All of the Central ……………region but when these nuclear powers begin bumping heads there it will create terrifying threats to world peace that the U.S. cannot ignore.

  Turn- CP kills hegemony through perception
  Hulett 9-3-11 – Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College (“Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?,”http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership)

  We also know a bit more about ………… Syria seems to have demonstrated Obama’s vacillation or indecisiveness and confusion about the occasional necessity of American leadership on behalf of promoting democracy and liberty.   

     AFRICAN STABILITY- POLICE MECH

  Plan reinvigorates U.S. commitment to police development abroad
  Downie and Cooke 11 [Richard Downie and Jennifer G. Cooke, “A More Strategic U.S. Approach to Police Reform in Africa”, CSIS, April 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf]

  Engage Congress. ………….. the need to protect civilians and safeguard against human rights abuses.
  
  
  Key to African stability
  Downie and Cooke 11 [Richard Downie and Jennifer G. Cooke, “A More Strategic U.S. Approach to Police Reform in Africa”, CSIS, April 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf]

  The police are one of the least …………. organizations in Africa that are professional, accountable, and serve their people.
  
  
  Escalates to WMD
  Lancaster 00 [Carol, Associate Professor and Director of the Master's of Science in Foreign Service program at Georgetown University, Foreign Affairs, October, 2000)]
  THE MOST BASIC CHALLENGE facing the United ……………., these wars could prove more dangerous than ever.

     TRADE ADDON- TERROR

  Even a slight strengthening of AQAP in Yemen will cause terrorist control of the Gulf of Aden – collapses global trade
  Yuriditsky 9/28 – Associate of the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Lev, “Yemen's Chaos - August 2011,”http://yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html)
  
  Towards the end of July, the leader of AQAP, Nasir al Wuhayshi, pledged allegiance to Bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al Zawahiri. Wuhayshi vowed to fight until Sharia law is imposed across the globe and that he and the AQAP fighters under his order will “fight the enemies without leniency or surrender until Islam rules.”
  Wuhayshi’s pledge of allegiance came just a month after Al Shabaab, the Al Qaeda-linked organization in Somalia gave the same oath. The two groups, separated by the strategic Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab straight, through which millions of barrels of oil and other goods are shipped daily between Asia, Europe and the Americas, make instability in Yemen a tremendous risk to global trade. The groups have cooperated with each other in the past and together can prove to be one of the most deadly terrorist organizations in history. With Al Shabaab’s strong presence in Somalia, all it takes is Al Qaeda strengthening just slightly and the groups will control the horn of Africa, the southwestern peninsula, and the strategicGulf of Aden.
  The alliance between Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda is of special significance to the U.S. Al Shabaab has a proven ability to recruit from the U.S. Somali-American population. During a hearing on Muslim radicalization, chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, Peter King discussed Al Shabaab’s “large cadre of American Jihadis” and the groups growing threat in the U.S. He went on to say that AQAP’s resources, such as arms and training (Yemen is the most heavily armed country in the world) with Al Shabaab’s reach can make for a particularly challenging situation.
  
  The impact is global nuclear war
  Panzner 8 (Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)
  
  Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of …………….. will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war. 

  2AC SKFTA
  Dems block SKFTA and no pc.  
  Goodman 9-26. [Alana,  assistant editor, “Dems holding up trade deals?” Commentary Magazinehttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/26/dems-trade-deals/]
  It’s been three months …………….. he waits, the more incompetent he’ll end up looking.

  Uniqueness overwhelms the link – passage guaranteed. 

  ``The Korea-US FTA (KORUS FTA) has unprecedented support from both U.S. labor and business groups and the only question is how fast it will be approved. There is no doubt that the congress will approve it with a substantial majority once the bill is brought to a vote,’’ Schott said. 

  No TAA deal in place now.
  Reuters 9-28-11.
  Garcia became frustrated with the continued delay, despite recent progress in the Senate on a worker retraining program know as Trade Adjustment Assistance  that may set the stage for Obama to send the trade pacts with South Korea, Panama and Colombia to Congress for votes. However, there is still no deal between the White House and House Republican leaders over how to handle floor action on the TAA program and the three pending trade agreements.

  Won’t Pass in South Korea.
  Inside US Trade 9-23-11.
  This week, the U.S. Senate approved a bill that is seen as a key step in ………………… to the perception in Korea, as well as China and Japan, that Obama has not engaged the region is much as he should have, Jaung argued.

  China bashing is top of the docket – spills-over to trigger link
  Sargent, 9-29-11 [Greg, The Washington Post Blog Writer,  "The other big jobs fight",http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-other-big-jobs-fight/2011/03/03/gIQArfTX7K_blog.html]
  The battle over the American Jobs Act ……………. House GOPers via the discharge petition. 

  deficit package
  Snyder 9-19. [Tanya, Capitol Hill reporter, “Obama: “I Will Veto Any Bill” Without Tax Increases on the Wealthy” DC Streets Blog http://dc.streetsblog.org/2011/09/19/obama-%E2%80%9Ci-will-veto-any-bill%E2%80%9D-without-tax-increases-on-the-wealthy/]
  In a Rose Garden speech this …………………… and the 2012 budget – it’s good to see the president using some political capital to say that he’s not willing to cut essential programs to the bone.

  Medicare provision
  LA Times 9-19-11 (Obama's plan to slash $3 trillion from deficit, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-plan-20110919,0,2286935.story)
  Another lightning rod for criticism in Obama's plan is the provision on Medicare and Medicaid. ………….. into a voucher program in which the government would give seniors a fixed amount to buy insurance, and seniors would be responsible for the costs it didn't cover. 

  Obama’s pushing jobs.
  Shear 9-20. [Michael, political blogger, “United Nations Visit Diverts Obama From Jobs Message — Again” NYT  http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/20/united-nations-visit-diverts-obama-from-jobs-message-again/]
  Since announcing his jobs bill before a ………….. as failing to follow through after a big speech.

  Solyndra.
  Restuccia 9-25. [Andrew, energy and environment reporter, “GOP to sink its teeth deeper into Solyndra and White House” The Hill]
  House Republicans have sunk their teeth into the bankruptcy of an Obama ………….. defectors voted for the new version of the bill Friday. 

  WINNERS WIN

  Winners win for Obama - inaction burns capital
  Kuttner 11 (Robert, Co-Founder and Co-Editor – American Prospect and Distinguished Senior Fellow – Demos (Think Tank), “Barack Obama’s Theory of Power”, The American Prospect, 5-16,http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power)
  Obama’s critics contend that his prolonged …………. Reciprocity and compromise then result in effective government and popular adulation. This has been Obama’s operating theory of power. For the most part, it hasn’t worked.

  PLAN POPULAR/NO BACKLASH

  The plan is popular in Congress – inaction draws backlash
  Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, "Closely Observing Country's Situation, US Administration to Give Hand to Yemen," YemenPost, April 10, http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1177&MainCat=6)
  The American delegation’s visit came shortly …………… Yemen and renewed war in the north as well as ailing economy and depleting oil reservoirs

  Zero backlash to the plan- massively popular
  CSM ’11 (Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer, Christian Science Monitor, “US covert attacks in Yemen: A better template for the war on terror?”, June 15, 2011, LEQ)

  The new campaign follows US concerns about a fortified Al Qaeda in …………… to a destabilized Libya that ended up fertile ground for Al Qaeda operatives," says Lindsay, "then I think the concerns about Libya would suddenly be quite different."

  ISSUES ARE COMPARTMENTALIZED

  Political capital is irrelevant
  Dickinson ‘9 – professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt (5/26/09, Matthew, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/)

  What is of more interest to me, however, is what ………….  His real influence has already occurred, in the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.
  DA DOESN’T LINK

  DA doesn’t link
  Bader 10 (Max, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer – Geschwister School Institute for Political Science, Against All Odds. Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine, p. 25)
  Being not as visible and not as …………..  the inclusion in party internationals.
  Flexibility checks their link
  McInerney 11. [Stephen, POMED's Director for Legislative Affairs and Editor of the POMED Wire blog. He has more than six years experience in the region, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University in Cairo and the American University of Beirut., July 2011, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012,”http:www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf
  Transitions in the Middle East ………… in Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

  OBAMA DOESN’T GET INVOLVED 

  Obama won’t get involved in democracy assistance – no blame.
  LAPPIN 10. [Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses”, February 1 http://soc.kuleuven.be/iieb/docs/2010/20100201-cceia.pdf]

  The commitment of ………. Moreover, it is a response which promises to deliver a more sophisticated and coherent brand of democracy assistance.

  FIAT = EMERGENCY SPENDING 

  Fiat means the plan is emergency spending - this doesn’t trade-off
  Castle 1. (Representative, March 8, FDCH, Lexis)
  Briefly, here is how the account ………….. 1999 was $9 billion a year (excluding the Persian Gulf War).  

  SKFTA not key to trade leadership- alt causes
  Levy ’11 (Philip I. Levy, Philip I. Levy's work in AEI's Program in International Economics ranges from free trade agreements and trade with China to antidumping policy. Prior to joining AEI, he worked on international economics issues as a member of the secretary of state's Policy Planning Staff. Mr. Levy also served as an economist for trade on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and taught economics at Yale University. He writes for AEI's International Economic Outlook series, “Leadership Vacuums in Trade”, http://blog.american.com/?p=24627, January 6, 2011, LEQ)
  The moves on Korea and ………….., lest the leaders end up on a dais humbly explaining their failure to reach agreement.

  US not key to global free trade
  Matthews and Eakin ’11 (Merril and Dough Holtz, Institute for Policy Innovation, Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation. Douglas Holtz-Eakin is president of the American Action Forum and served as a member of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, “Recapturing US Leadership on Trade”,http://www.ipi.org/IPI/IPIPressReleases.nsf/97704cbd573c70d88625763a007cd241/a97aaa8817da1e578625783700786289?OpenDocument, February 9, 2011, LEQ)
  More important, NAFTA was passed by a Democratic-controlled Congress………….. recently. Meanwhile, the European Union is aggressively promoting free trade agreements, opening up the world to more European products.

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its technical assistance for institutional capacity building in Yemen.

CONTENTION 1 – STATUS QUO – 1:00  
Obama is locked into counter-terrorism policies with an emphasis on military force as opposed to institution building
Lake and Barry 9/30 (Eli Lake is the senior national-security correspondent for Newsweek and the Daily Beast. He previously covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times. Lake has also been a contributing editor at The New Republic since 2008 and covered diplomacy, intelligence, and the military for the late New York Sun. He has lived in Cairo, Egypt, and traveled to war zones in Sudan, Iraq, and Gaza. He is one of the few journalists to report from all three members of President Bush's axis of evil: Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. John Barry joined Newsweek's Washington bureau as national-security correspondent in 1985. He has reported extensively on American intervention in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Haiti, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia and on efforts for peace in the Middle East. In 2002 he co-wrote The War Crimes of Afghanistan, which won a National Headliner Award. He won the 1993 Investigative Reporters & Editors Gold Medal for his investigation of the shooting down of an Iranian airliner by the USS Vincennes, as well as a 1983 British Press Award—the British equivalent of a Pulitzer—for his reconstruction of the U.S.-Soviet negotiations to ban intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, “Obama’s Anti-Terror Doctrine”, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/09/30/anwar-al-awlaki-killing-shines-light-on-obama-s-anti-terror-doctrine.html, September 30, 2011, LEQ)

The killing of Anwar al-Awlaki is the latest … against the return of al Qaeda.”
Yemen has become the forefront of US counter-terror policy – Changing policy to a ‘whole government’ approach is key
Porges ’10 (Marisa L. Porges, Policy advisor to US Treasury and DOD, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67008/marisa-l-porges/saving-yemen?page=show#, “In Yemen, where political and tribal authorities compete, interest groups  including al Qaeda’s regional offshoot, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula  have begun to fill the voids”, November 16, 2010, LEQ)

Yemen rose to the forefront of U.S. counterterrorism … in the Arabian Peninsula.

Yemen will be the model for how the US conducts future counterterrorism operations
Baldor ‘10 – Associated Press (Lolita C., 09/08, “US terror training in Yemen reflects wider program,” http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2012835332_apususterrorismtraining.html)

At stake is the stability of a troubled, poverty-stricken nation … that does not ebb and flow as terror incidents with a Yemen tie occur.

Yemen is perceived as the SPOTLIGHT of global terrorism- US MUST engage in a whole government approach
Hill ’10 (Ginny Hill, Ginny Hill is an associate fellow at Chatham House in London, where she runs the Yemen Forum, http://www.ginnyhill.co.uk/?p=436, “Yemen: Test for the West”, February 2010, LEQ)

The botched plot to bomb Northwest Airlines Flight … Yemen and the international donors.

CONTENTION 2 – HEGEMONY – 2:10 

The international community specifically views our strategy in Yemen as military tunnel vision – Increasing Civil Capacity is key to reverse this perception
Bodine ’11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011, LEQ)

To focus disproportionately on immediate military and … the ramifications of state failure can be guaranteed. PRISM
Hegemony will collapse absent a shift away from a unilateral, aggression based counter-terrorism
Fakiolas and Fakiolas 7 (Efstathios T - PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and is currently working as a strategy and southeastern European affairs analyst at ATEbank, Tassos E - PhD from IMEMO, Moscow, Russian Academy of Sciences and is a special adviser on Russian and east European affairs for a Greek business firm, "Pax Americana or Multilateralism? Reflecting on the United States' Grand Strategic Vision of Hegemony in the Wake of the 11 September Attacks," Muse) jl

After the 9/11 bombings, the Bush administration …upper hand as a preeminent great power, is another story.
Perception matters- the international communities’ perception of an aggression-only strategy causes counter-balancing
Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009
The war on terror has failed to become the … security matters more difficult than it would have otherwise been.
American international credibility is key to all impacts
Thayer 6 - Associate Professor of Defense and Strategic Study @ Missouri State University, Former Research Fellow @ International Security Program @ Harvard Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs  (Bradley, “In Defense of Primacy,” The National Interest, November/December)

A grand strategy based on American primacy …due to the economic prosperity it provides.
Only multilateral cooperation prevents prolif and great power wars that make extinction inevitable
Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis
The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use …will repeat itself and everybody loses.

Prolif leads to global nuclear war and breakdown of deterrence
Kissinger 4 (Henry, Former Secretary of State, “America’s Assignment,” November 8th, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6371121/)

While militant Islam is the most … Islamic justification for unconscionable acts in support of terrorism.

CONTENTION 3 – TERRORISM – 3:20
Al Qaeda is developing nuclear and biological weapons
Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html

Al-Qaida is on the verge of producing radioactive weapons … “extraordinary loss of life”. 

Nuclear terrorism causes retaliation with Russia/ China
Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear … latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide. 

CBW attacks ensure multiple scenarios for extinction
Kellman ‘8 (Barry Kellman is the director of the International Weapons Control Center, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat”, The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf)

A looming danger confronts the world—…have dire consequences for all humanity.
Al-Qaeda will successfully attack nuclear power plants across the globe – causes meltdowns and kills the nuclear industry
Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared by a … can result in a catastrophic failure within a matter of hours …”
Meltdowns cause extinction
Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 … entire region. "It could be, literally, an apocalyptic event.

Only nuclear power prevents catastrophic warming
Lynas 11 – author of "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet" and "High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis" (Mark, 04/10, “Why nuclear power is still a good choice,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/10/opinion/la-oe-lynas-nukes-20110410)
For the green movement, which is often justifiably … 300 years, so no Yucca Mountains needed there.
Warming causes extinction
McPherson 11 – professor emeritus of natural resources and the environment at the University of Arizona (Guy, 08/20, “Three paths to near-term human extinction,” http://guymcpherson.com/2011/08/three-paths-to-near-term-human-extinction/)

About a decade ago I realized we were putting … stay ahead of an overheating planet.

Independently, CO2 emissions will destroy the ocean - causes extinction
Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News,  Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?,” June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html, EMM)

Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm … and in some cases beginning to fail', he added. 

Plan solves-
The plan would be a break from ‘business-as-usual’ counter-terrorism- key to solve Anti-Americanism
Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)

It is becoming increasingly clear that the departure of … a safe haven within which to launch attacks against the United States.
A shift toward an economic development model of counter-terrorism solves global Al-Qaeda activity – spills over
Task Force Report ’11 (University Of Washington | Henry M. Jackson School Of International Studies, “Countering Al-Qaeda’s Ideology: Re-Assessing U.S. Policy Ten Years After 9/11”, https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1, 2011, LEQ)

The United States must reposition itself … renewed development efforts in the fight against al-Qaeda. 

A successful Yemen policy would become a new litmus test for all other operations- - eliminating the image of a strict military focus is key – USAID must act independently and AWAY from the DOD to regain credibility
Mitchell ’11 (Robert E. Mitchell earned degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program, and Columbia (Sociology), has been an academic in the US and overseas, a Foreign Service Officer with USAID (including a tour in Yemen in the late 1980s), consultant on various international challenges, and published widely on a variety of topics (most recently in MIT's Journal of Interdisciplinary History). He is retired, living in Brookline, Massachusetts and an active leader and member in Harvard's Institute for Learning in Retirement, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency”, Small Wars Foundation, August 1, 2011, LEQ)

An American-designed strategy attempts …member in Harvard's Institute for Learning in Retirement. 

CONTENTION 4 – SOLVENCY – 2:30
Technical assistance is key to capacity building in the Yemeni government – this resolves all structural problems with status quo institutions
OECD 10 (OECD Joint Learning Study, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a unique forum where the governments of market democracies work together to address the economic, social, environmental and governance challenges of globalisation and development. The provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD, “Enhancing Integrity in Public Procurement in Yemen”, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/9/45916397.pdf, September 2, 2010, LEQ)

Guiding Principles for Open and Inclusive Policy Making … effectively support autonomous problem-solving by citizens, CSOs and businesses.

Technical assistance aimed at capacity building would create an effective procurement policy for Yemen
OECD 10 (OECD Joint Learning Study, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a unique forum where the governments of market democracies work together to address the economic, social, environmental and governance challenges of globalisation and development. The provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD, “Enhancing Integrity in Public Procurement in Yemen”, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/9/45916397.pdf, September 2, 2010, LEQ)

1.2. Decentralisation, Poverty Reduction and Procurement Decentralisation of … and lessons in decentralisation and procurement.

They’d go into the public procurement field – there’s a shortage of trained specialists
OECD 10 (OECD Joint Learning Study, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a unique forum where the governments of market democracies work together to address the economic, social, environmental and governance challenges of globalisation and development. The provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD, “Enhancing Integrity in Public Procurement in Yemen”, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/9/45916397.pdf, September 2, 2010, LEQ)

Public procurement – from the initial expenditure … ministries’ Tender Committees and in local authorities. 

This training spills over into the economic sector – establishes an effective procurement policy and a stable financial environment for Yemen
OECD 10 (OECD Joint Learning Study, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a unique forum where the governments of market democracies work together to address the economic, social, environmental and governance challenges of globalisation and development. The provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD, “Enhancing Integrity in Public Procurement in Yemen”, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/9/45916397.pdf, September 2, 2010, LEQ)

Invite representatives of the private sector to … practices, highlighting useful areas of collaboration

And resolving corruption is key to reconfigure Yemen’s economy which will inevitably collapse – it’s the root cause of terrorism
Makovsky et. al. ’11 (Dr. Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director Blaise Misztal, Foreign Policy Associate Director Jonathan Ruhe, Policy Analyst Yadira Castellanos, Administrative Assistant , Bipartisan Policy Center, A case study of the Stabilizing Fragile States Project, “ Fragility and Extremism in Yemen”, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf, January 2011, LEQ)

 Resource Drain Of course, the patronage system requires … levels of graft for the recent rise in violence throughout the country.192
And solving corruption through building civil society is the key buffer to terrorism
Makovsky et. al. ’11 (Dr. Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director Blaise Misztal, Foreign Policy Associate Director Jonathan Ruhe, Policy Analyst Yadira Castellanos, Administrative Assistant , Bipartisan Policy Center, A case study of the Stabilizing Fragile States Project, “ Fragility and Extremism in Yemen”, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf, January 2011, LEQ)

 As the government’s policies and weaknesses … creates a wedge for al-Qaida and its extremist narrative. 

Bottom up programs work best- developing a local strategy is key- empirically works
Task Force Report ’11 (University Of Washington | Henry M. Jackson School Of International Studies, “Countering Al-Qaeda’s Ideology: Re-Assessing U.S. Policy Ten Years After 9/11”, https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1, 2011, LEQ)

 As David Kilcullen notes in Counterinsurgency, ―current experience … acting upon their own visions of progress. 

AT: Drones Work/ Status Quo Solves Drone

Counterterrorism with a military focus will fail – shifting to a new focus that focuses on benefitting the local population is key to solve
Gartenstein-Ross 9/30 (Daveed, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, "What Will Anwar al-Awlaki's Death Really Mean for al-Qaeda?," http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/what-will-anwar-al-awlakis-death-really-mean-for-al-qaeda/245934/, AD: 10/25/11) jl 

The apparent death of Anwar al-Awlaki  a U.S. … change it. Until then, we might be firing in the dark.

AT: T - Democracy Assistance

We meet- enhance government 

Counter interpretation – DA includes aid for rule of law, civil society, elections and good governance
McMahon ‘2, -Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University-2 The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study  
http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf

U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies may differ … improvements as a result of U.S. assistance. 

We meet- technical assistance is democracy assistance
Huber ‘8, Jerusalem IR professor, (Daniela, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, March, ebsco, ldg)

The term democracy assistance is used in … that DA is more than electoral assistance.

Prefer our interpretation – 

Predictable limits – their interp is arbitrary and unpredictable; only ours has an intent define which provides a predictable amount of ground to the aff and neg

No ground loss – we’re the core of the topic, no lack of disad or cp ground  

Excluded technical assistance affs destroys the topic- only allows for dialogue affs-  forces affirmatives to skirt the topic- explodes limits

They exlude Yemen/ Bahrain affirmatives- kills 1/3rd of the topic- turns the reasons why limits are good- kills topic education

Mixes burden
Default to Reasonability- good is good enough
Checks back all their arbitrariness and judge intervention arguments.  Key internal link to topic specific education - we should let the lit guide us, not arbitrary interpretations
Competing interpretations causes a race to the bottom and justifies only our aff is topical

Democracy and democracy assistance are simply not static concepts
Susan B. Epstein, Nina M. Serafino, and Francis T. Miko Specialists in Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division December 26, 2007.  “Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of  U.S. Foreign Policy?” CRS REPORT FOR CONGRESS http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34296.pdf
Continuing Challenges.  Democracy … concepts are far from settled.

Be reasonable
Thomas Carothers, “HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY  ASSISTANCE: INCREASING THE  EFFECTIVENESS OF U.S. FOREIGN AID HEARING OF THE HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 10, 2010. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0610_transcript_carothers_testimony.pdf
Well, I think the key is to have a set of democratic … maybe the person meant transformative results.  

Politics 2AC

2AC No China Bashing 

Won’t pass – GOP leadership opposition enough to block, and Obama would veto
Tonelson 10/26 [Alan Tonelson is a Research Fellow at the U.S. Business & Industry Educational Foundation, “Currency Manipulation as Political Football”, Wednesday, October 26, 2011, American Economic Alert, http://americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=4891]
On October 3, the Hatch gambit was repeated …, if reluctantly, hinted at a White House veto. 

2AC Treasury Report 

Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link: 

A. Relations with China are more important
Tonelson 10/26 [Alan Tonelson is a Research Fellow at the U.S. Business & Industry Educational Foundation, “Currency Manipulation as Political Football”, Wednesday, October 26, 2011, American Economic Alert, http://americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=4891]
Another flagrant administration punt, however, … that China’s progress is inadequate. 

B. History proves
Palmer 10/25 [Doug Palmer, “Obama to press Hu on yuan at November summits: Treasury”, Tuesday, October 25, 2011, http://whbl.com/news/articles/2011/oct/25/obama-to-press-hu-on-yuan-at-november-summits-treasury/]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama will press … be done by mid-November, clearing the way for Treasury to issue the report then. 

C. Fear of a Trade War.
Economist 10/11 [Economist, “Is China a currency manipulator?”, Oct 11th 2011, 14:17 by The Economist online, http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/america-and-china]

The yuan/dollar exchange rate and America's trade … to passing a similar measure, in 2005). 

No Impact: Pressure Now 

Pressure on China Now – WTO Lawsuit triggers your impact.
Mihalakas 10-26-11 – Assistant Professor of International Trade Law, University of New York, Tirana (Nasos, “A ‘Fall of Discontent’ for U.S.-China Trade Relations,” http://www.nl-aid.org/continent/south-east-asia/a-%E2%80%98fall-of-discontent%E2%80%99-for-u-s-china-trade-relations/)
This fall we saw a number of moves … when their websites are blocked by China’s national firewall.

Obama pressuring China now – thumps the impact.
Reuters 10-25-11 (“Obama to press Hu on yuan at Nov summits-Treasury,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/usa-china-currency-obama-idUSW1E7LB03H20111025)
U.S. President Barack Obama will press … Secretary Lael Brainard told a congressional panel at a hearing.

No Impact: Resilient
NO IMPACT  SQUO RIFTS ARE JUST POSTURING FOR DOMESTIC POLITICAL COVER.
ECONOMY 10. [Elizabeth, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies , “The US and China have at it again; but it’s much ado about nothing” Council on Foreign Relations  Feb 2]
Everyone is in a tizzy over the … of all—maintaining the G-2 mirage. 

No Impact: No Trade Wars

More evidence - neither nation would let it escalate
Bloomberg 10 (“Trade War Between U.S., China on Currency Unlikely, CICC Says,” 9-28, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-28/trade-war-between-u-s-china-on-currency-unlikely-cicc-says.html)

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg)  A trade war between … like partners in trade than rivals.” 

Aid Now: Libya 

Massive aid package to Libya now.
CBS News 10-18-11.
The Obama administration offered millions of … four decades of dictatorship.

More ev.
IHT, 10/19/11 (The International Herald Tribune, Steven Lee Myers. “Clinton, on visit, lauds Libya; Offers of additional aid mark first stop since '08 by a top U.S. diplomat.” Lexis.)
The administration has already pledged … said more would arrive soon.

Aid Now: Tunisia 

Mad aid to Tunisia.
Democracy Digest 10-12-11.
Growing tension between secularists and … Gordon Gray, Washington’s Ambassador to Tunis.
Tunisian aid now – elections assistance.
ATA Press 10-11. [Agency Tunis Afrique Press, “US ambassador G. Gray: US will support any government that comes out from democratic elections”  lexis]
"President Obama invited Premier Caid Essebsi … the Washington Post and New-York Times.

Tunisia aid now.
Reuters, 10/7/11 (Alister Bull, “Obama hails Tunisia as "inspiration" of Arab Spring.” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/07/us-usa-tunisia-idUSTRE7966J520111007)
Washington hopes Tunisia's progress … would be the first to visit the White House," he said.

Defense Bill Thumper 

Fight over defense bill now.
Johnson 10-25. (Carrie, NPR justice dept. correspondent, "Big Fight Brewing In Senate Over Defense Policy Bill," NPR, 10-25-11, www.npr.org/2011/10/25/141649237/big-fight-brewing-in-senate-over-defense-policy-bill]
A big fight is brewing in the Senate … fight could be coming to a head soon.
Solyndra Thumper 

Solyndra thumps your disad.
Cavanaugh 10-16. [Tim, senior editor @ Reason magazine, “Obama’s Solyndra Talking Cure Fails: Little Scandal, big story” http://www.hawaiireporter.com/obama%E2%80%99s-solyndra-talking-cure-fails-little-scandal-big-story/123]
This is the Obama I voted for. The caretaker. … his family, the less time the rest of us have to spend with them.

Fast and Furious Thumper 

Fast and Furious thumps your disad.
Associated Press 10-18-11.
The Senate voted Tuesday to effectively … the Obama administration on Fast and Furious.

Housing Thumper 

Housing policies thump the disad
Nixon 10/25 [York Van Nixon III, DC Mortgage Examiner, October 25, 2011, “HARP: Help for homeowners”, http://www.examiner.com/mortgage-in-washington-dc/harp-help-for-homeowners]
Well, I guess anything is better than waiting … their mortgage than the current market value. 

Infrastructure Thumper 

Infrastructure vote within days.
Condon 10-27. [Stephanie, political reporter, “House passes part of Obama’s jobs bill” CBS News]
The Senate is slated in … "out of sync" with their constituents.

Infrastructure will cost PC
NYT 10-22-11 (“Senate, at Least for a Day, Gets Back to Legislating,” Lexis)
For the second time in two weeks, … water and sewer systems and other infrastructure. 

Jobs Thumper 

Jobs thumps the link – disproves the theory of pc.
Washington Post 10-13-11.
It’s become a familiar refrain in Washington by now; President Obama pushes for Republicans to support one of his big initiatives, only to see members of his own party vote … and gives the Republicans a pass to vote no.”

2AC- Obama Good

Turn – Leahy loves the plan
Ken Dilanian, USA Today, “Yemen hasn't received as much U.S. aid as its neighbors” 1/5/2010, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-01-05-yemen-aid_N.htm

Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who has pushed for … to find effective ways to support them." 

Controls the agenda
Laws, No Date [“ Who Is Patrick Leahy”, http://government-programs.laws.com/congress/senate/state-senator/patrick-leahy]

Patrick Leahy is a Democratic Senator who … was appointed to be the chairman of the Foreign Operations subcommittee. 

Winners win for Obama - inaction burns capital
Kuttner 11 (Robert, Co-Founder and Co-Editor – American Prospect and Distinguished Senior Fellow – Demos (Think Tank), “Barack Obama’s Theory of Power”, The American Prospect, 5-16,http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power)
Obama’s critics contend that his …operating theory of power. For the most part, it hasn’t worked.
The plan is popular in Congress – inaction draws backlash
Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, "Closely Observing Country's Situation, US Administration to Give Hand to Yemen," YemenPost, April 10, http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1177&MainCat=6)
The American delegation’s visit came shortly after … as well as ailing economy and depleting oil reservoirs

Zero backlash to the plan- massively popular
CSM ’11 (Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer, Christian Science Monitor, “US covert attacks in Yemen: A better template for the war on terror?”, June 15, 2011, LEQ)

The new campaign follows US concerns about a … concerns about Libya would suddenly be quite different."

Turn – Miltiary 

They love the plan -
Adam Entous and Siobhan Gorman, August 25, 2010, “U.S. Weighs Expanded Strikes In Yemen”, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704125604575450162714867720.html

The military's Central Command under … Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh. 

Key to the agenda
Colonel Charles Dunlap, Summer, 1994, Wake Forest Law Review, p. lexis
In addition, the military undermines the fiscal … claiming its “temptation to deal poetic justice was likely more than it could resist.” 

No internal link – political capital doesn’t affect policy making
Edwards, 9 – Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University, holds the George and Julia Blucher Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies and has served as the Olin Professor of American Government at Oxford [George, “The Strategic President”, Printed by the Princeton University Press, pg. 149-150]

Even presidents who appeared to dominate Congress …, it will almost always be a minority in each chamber.

And the media’s claims have no basis—prefer experts.
Edwards, 9 – Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University, holds the George and Julia Blucher Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies and has served as the Olin Professor of American Government at Oxford [George, “The Strategic President”, Printed by the Princeton University Press, pg. 9-10]
The tenacity with which many commentators embrace … with the opportunities for change in the leader's environment.

DA doesn’t link
Bader 10 (Max, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer – Geschwister School Institute for Political Science, Against All Odds. Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine, p. 25)
Being not as visible and not as contested, … consultancy and  the inclusion in party internationals.
Flexibility checks their link
McInerney 11. [Stephen, POMED's Director for Legislative Affairs and Editor of the POMED Wire blog. He has more than six years experience in the region, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University in Cairo and the American University of Beirut., July 2011, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012,”http:www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf
Transitions in the Middle East are a top priority.  … to further developments in Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.
Obama won’t get involved in democracy assistance – no blame.
LAPPIN 10. [Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses”, February 1 http://soc.kuleuven.be/iieb/docs/2010/20100201-cceia.pdf]

The commitment of the Obama administration … coherent brand of democracy assistance.

*China-US Relations*
Relations resilient
Wan 10- Staff Writer at Wall Street Journal
(William, “China: U.S. relations 'sound',” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/06/AR2010090603660.html, 9/7)

At a time of tension in U.S.-China relations, a .. countries also don't seem to want the relationship to deteriorate again."

Cooperation over your impacts is inevitable - Obama and economic ties guarantee it
Wenzhao 9 – Senior Researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
(Tao, 2/17/09, “Positive signs ahead for Sino-US relations,” China Daily, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-02/17/content_7482140.htm)

The direction of Sino-US relations … to develop during Obama's tenure. 

Tons of alt causes
Auslin 7/14 (Michael, AEI’s Director of Japan Studies, Associate Professor @ Yale, “ The Trust Gap in U.S.-China Relations,” 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304911104576443553760800950.html, EMM)

Both China and America have …the U.S. should spend less on its military. 

Taiwan arms sales are a huge alt cause
Xinhua 10 (Xinhua News, 1/3 Official Chinese news network. “Arms sale causes severe damage to overall China-U.S. cooperation.”
 2010-01-30 23:35:04 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-01/30/c_13157364.htm) 

Ignoring repeated solemn representations … especially those of the August 17 Communique. 

No spillover from one issue to others
IPS 3 (Inter-Press Service, 11-4, Lexis)

Indeed, it now appears that, despite rising .. of the relationship."

China War
Heg is key to prevent US-Sino war
Marquardt 4 (Erich, Senior Editor with the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, “Beijing Tests Washington’s Resolve in East Asia,” July 28th, http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=189&language_id=1)
Additionally, the failure of Washington to successfully … to meet increased Chinese regional influence.

Second is India-

AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful
Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]

In this context, Al Qaeda and its emerging connections in … good governance, India must take due note of other threats as well and exercise the requisite caution. 

This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war
Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated … the greatest threat we face from terrorism. 

AT: Saudi Arabia Relations DA

Relations low – Arab Spring, Iraq, Iran, and Israel-Palestinian conflict
Finn 10/22 – National Security correspondent for The Washington Post (Peter, “Saudi crown prince’s death sparks succession talk,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-crown-princes-death-sparks-succession-talk/2011/10/22/gIQAsomQ7L_story.html)

The Obama administration’s support for … having the instinct to work hard to reverse that.”

Relations low, but the Saudis will never sever them completely – they’ll just shift to other countries – solves the impact
World Tribune 10/21 – the only American newspaper that focuses on international news, supplemented by exclusive intelligence reports on Geostrategy (“Is Saudia Arabia next?” http://wakeupfromyourslumber.com/news/saudia-arabia-next)

WASHINGTON — The Saudi distrust of Washington is said to have … strategic weapons and internal security assistance.

Sustainable relations are impossible – Saudi Arabia won’t cooperate with the U.S. – they fear leaks
Baluch 10/22 – veteran Baloch journalist who is the editor of Daily Balochistan Express and Daily Azadi (Siddiq, “Pakistan's image tarnished,” Lexis)

Similarly, relations with Saudi Arabia and … of trust deficit or lack of confidence on the Americans.

Relations are tanking now, no link and Saudi Arabia likes the plan
Johnsen 11 – former Fulbright fellow in Yemen and currently a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University (Gregory, September, “Resetting U.S. Policy Toward Yemen,”http:www.cfr.org/yemen/resetting-us-policy-toward-yemen/p26026?cid=rss-fullfeed-resetting_u.s._policy_toward_y-092711)

Given the messy and deep-seated problems in Yemen, … and the simmering threat of Yemen’s fragile economy.

Saudi Arabia would prefer a democratic Yemen
Arrott 10/11 (Elizabeth Arrott, VOA News, “Saudis Worried About Instability in Yemen”, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Saudis-Worried-About-Instability-in-Yemen-131014973.html, October 3, 2011, LEQ)
 
Few nations are more worried about the … some of the alternatives would be far worse.
No link uniqueness- their evidence already described strains
Here’s ev-
Strobel ’11 (Warren P. Strobel, McClatchy News, “'Arab spring' drives wedge between U.S., Saudi Arabia”, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/24/111034/arab-spring-drives-wedge-between.html, March 24, 2011, LEQ)

WASHINGTON — The United States and Saudi Arabia — whose conflicted … Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

Saudi Arabia would like the plan- they have turned their back on Saleh as a liability
Haykel ’11 (Bernard Haykel, Foreign Affairs, professor of Near Eastern Studies and the director of the Institute for the Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia at Princeton University, “Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Dilemma”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67892/bernard-haykel/saudi-arabias-yemen-dilemma, June 14, 2011, LEQ)

Saudi Arabia, perpetually in fear of chaos … Sana'a whenever it has expressed an independent policy. 

The plan solves US-Saudi relations – terrorism is the one definitive area of cooperation and it definitely outweighs your link.
Boucek 9/12/11 (Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/12/terrorism-out-of-saudi-arabia/53pw#yemen)

Saudi Arabia’s influence and interest in combating … two need each other and leaders from both countries recognize the importance of the relationship.

Saudi strains don’t mean collapse and the revolutions will increase relations in the long run
Zeigler ’11 (Lucien Zeigler, He graduated from the University of Virginia’s Woodrow Wilson Department of Politics with a degree in Foreign Affairs. He is currently Research Director for the Saudi-U.S. Trade Group (SUSTG), a not-for-profit 501-c(6) trade group based in the Washington D.C. area, “Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After ‘Arab Spring’?”, http://informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/, March 18, 2011, LEQ)

Writing in the UK’s Financial Times, Eurasia Group President .. the so-called “special relationship” 

   Saudi Prolif Impact D

No Saudi prolif – not capable, destabilizing, controversial, weakens the kingdom, commitment to economy, NPT, official opposition
Lippman 11 – senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. His career in journalism at the Washington Post included four years as the Washington Post’s Middle East bureau chief, three years as the Post’s oil and energy reporter and a decade as the newspaper’s national security and diplomatic correspondent, he traveled extensively to Saudi Arabia. He is the author of “Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East,” “Inside the Mirage: America’s Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia,” ” Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy,” ” Understanding Islam, and Egypt After Nasser”. A writer and journalist specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs (Thomas W., 08/05, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy,” http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

It is highly unlikely, however, that Saudi Arabia … internationally supervised region free of all weapons of mass destruction.

Pakistan won’t sell nukes to the Saudis – high risk, no off-the-books prolif, no secret deal, Pakistani domestic concerns, no value
Lippman 11 – senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. His career in journalism at the Washington Post included four years as the Washington Post’s Middle East bureau chief, three years as the Post’s oil and energy reporter and a decade as the newspaper’s national security and diplomatic correspondent, he traveled extensively to Saudi Arabia. He is the author of “Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East,” “Inside the Mirage: America’s Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia,” ” Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy,” ” Understanding Islam, and Egypt After Nasser”. A writer and journalist specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs (Thomas W., 08/05, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy,” http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

But times have changed and Pakistan is less likely … actually stir up more trouble than they would alleviate.

2AC Generic International Agenct CP

Perm – Do both; solves the net benefit

Perm – Do the CP

CP links to net benefit

Counterplan doesn’t solve our advantage- 

US must take the lead charge- otherwise can’t solve
Stuster 9/27 (J. Dana Stuster, a Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security, is a writer living in Washington, DC, “What Can the U.S. Really Do for Yemen?”, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/what-can-the-us-really-do-for-yemen/245688/, September 27, 2011, LEQ)

 "The United States and the international … in Yemen to the same table may be closing.

International fiat is a voter:

a) It’s not an opportunity cost - no decision maker has the ability to choose between the plan and counterplan.

b) Justifies fiating infinite nations and international organizations - creates an impossible research burden on the aff.

Counter-interpretation- counterplans with solvency advocates comparative to US or _ agent is allowed

Cooperation with Saudi Arabia kills solvency- perception
James Gundun is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst, editor of The Trench, “Yemen’s Revolution Is Non-Negotiable”, The Trench, May 13, 2011, 

. If President Barack Obama and his national security … has to do is support the revolution - unconditionally. 

Drones
Links to net benefit
Entous ’11 (ADAM ENTOUS, SIOBHAN GORMAN and MATTHEW ROSENBERG, Reuters, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576363812217915914.html, June 4, 2011, LEQ)

WASHINGTON—Fissures have opened within the … current and former officials familiar with the discussions. 

Horn of Africa Addon

Instability spills over to the entire Horn of Africa
Ginny Hill, “Yemen: Fear of Failure; Middle East and North Africa Programme”, Chatham House, January 2010, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/22924953ECE8BBF1492576EA000E8E41-Full_Report.pdf

Future instability in Yemen could … and the Horn of Africa 

Causes major power wars
- Glick ‘7 (Dec. 10, 2007 Caroline Glick , THE JERUSALEM POST)

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous … in April killing nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians. 

Cyberterrorism Addon

Al Qaeda is gearing up for Cyberattacks – they have the capability
Faryal Leghari is Assistant Editor (Opinion) of Khaleej Times, “Hit C for cyberterrorism”, Jan 29, 2011, http://www.yobserver.com/opinions/10020698.html

The defining word for the new age is ‘smart’. And it orbits the … it is time to shape our defenses accordingly.

That causes nuclear war
Fritz, 09 – researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University (Jason, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf)

This paper will analyse the threat of cyber …the need for compromising command and control centres directly.

Saudi Arabia Relations DA

Disad is out of date- Saleh left- that’s all their evidence is about

Relations low – Mubarak and Bahrain

Pace 12/28 – Associated Press (Julia, “US finalizes deal to sell F-15s to Saudi Arabia,” http://www.kansascity.com/2011/12/28/3341968/ap-sources-us-to-sell-f-15s-to.html)

But relations … quell protests there.

Relations are tanking now, no link and Saudi Arabia likes the plan

Johnsen 11 – former Fulbright fellow in Yemen and currently a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University (Gregory, September, “Resetting U.S. Policy Toward Yemen,”http://www.cfr.org/yemen/resetting-us-policy-toward-yemen/p26026?cid=rss-fullfeed-resetting_u.s._policy_toward_y-092711)

Given the messy and … Yemen’s fragile economy.

Saudi Arabia would prefer a democratic Yemen

Arrott 10/11 (Elizabeth Arrott, VOA News, “Saudis Worried About Instability in Yemen”, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Saudis-Worried-About-Instability-in-Yemen-131014973.html, October 3, 2011, LEQ)

Few nations are more worried … the alternatives would be far worse.

Zero risk plan hurts relations enough to trigger the impact

Landler 12/31 – senior diplomatic correspondent for the New York Times (Mark, Steven Lee Myers, White House correspondent for the New York Times, “In Iran's shadow, U.S. sells jets to Saudi Arabia,” http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article2761339.ece)

The …the core relationship.”

Saudi Prolif Impact D

No Saudi prolif – not capable, destabilizing, controversial, weakens the kingdom, commitment to economy, NPT, official opposition

Lippman 11 – senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. His career in journalism at the Washington Post included four years as the Washington Post’s Middle East bureau chief, three years as the Post’s oil and energy reporter and a decade as the newspaper’s national security and diplomatic correspondent, he traveled extensively to Saudi Arabia. He is the author of “Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East,” “Inside the Mirage: America’s Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia,” ” Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy,” ” Understanding Islam, and Egypt After Nasser”. A writer and journalist specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs (Thomas W., 08/05, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy,” http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

It is highly unlikely, … region free of all weapons of mass destruction.

Pakistan won’t sell nukes to the Saudis – high risk, no off-the-books prolif, no secret deal, Pakistani domestic concerns, no value

Lippman 11 – senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. His career in journalism at the Washington Post included four years as the Washington Post’s Middle East bureau chief, three years as the Post’s oil and energy reporter and a decade as the newspaper’s national security and diplomatic correspondent, he traveled extensively to Saudi Arabia. He is the author of “Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East,” “Inside the Mirage: America’s Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia,” ” Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy,” ” Understanding Islam, and Egypt After Nasser”. A writer and journalist specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs (Thomas W., 08/05, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy,” http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

But times have changed and …trouble than they would alleviate.

Addon- Saudi Instabulity (Yemen)

Collapse of Yemen would destroy Saudi Arabia due to instability and refugee flow- they are linked

Horton ’11 (Michael Horton is a Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation where he specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. He also writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Digest, Islamic Affairs Analyst, and the Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Horton studied Middle East History and Economics at the American University of Cairo and Arabic at the Center for Arabic Language and Eastern Studies in Yemen. Michael frequently travels to Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, The Jamestown Foundation, “The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen”, http://global-security-news.com/2011/04/07/the-unseen-hand-saudi-arabian-involvement-in-yemen/, April 7, 2011, LEQ)

The future of Yemen is … certainly worth remembering.  

Addon- Cyberterrorism (AQAP)

Al Qaeda is gearing up for Cyberattacks – they have the capability

Faryal Leghari is Assistant Editor (Opinion) of Khaleej Times, “Hit C for cyberterrorism”, Jan 29, 2011, http://www.yobserver.com/opinions/10020698.html

The defining word for the …defenses accordingly.

That causes nuclear war

Fritz ‘9 – researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University (Jason, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf)

This paper will analyse the …control centres directly.

Addon- Indo/Pak War (AQAP)

Al Qaeda attacks in India will spark an Indo-pak war

Yochi J. Dreazen, “Gates Warns of Militants in South Asia”, Wall Street Journal January 21, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704320104575014752587809016.html

NEW DELHI—U.S. Defense … were there to be further attacks.''

That goes nuclear and causes extinction

Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html

In 1914, a terrorist … we face from terrorism.

Harvard Adv. CP

Counterplan makes no sense in the context of the aff - the World Trust is just meant to be a soft power agency to make the US look cool

-Their author

The mission of … in detail below 

Unemployment

Won’t Pass

Chapman and Malloy 1/1

(Dan Chapman and Daniel Malloy, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, http://www.ajc.com/business/debate-rages-over-duration-1283619.html, January 1, 2012, LEQ)

The jobless recently got … the issue early in the next session.

Libya Aid Now

US giving civil society aid to Libya now – triggers the link.

Ali 12-22. [Khadija, freelance journalist, “US Ambassador Says US Committed to Supporting Libya” Tripoli Post -- http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=7538]

United States … community relationships..."

2AC: Payroll Tax Thumper

Payroll tax is the top of the docket and will be a fight.

Lee 12-31. [Carol E., White House correspondent, “White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda” Wall Street Journal --  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204720204577131543017594740.html]

President Barack Obama … a catalyst for his 2012 political message.

*Piracy Thumper

Online piracy top of the agenda – sparks fights.

Snider 12-28. [Mike, Tech & entertainment reporter, “Online piracy a hot button issue for Congress in January” USA Today -- http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2011-12-27/SOPA-congress-piracy/52246628/1]

A hot issue awaits … association backs that alternative.

2AC- Obama Good

No link- no backlash

Shane et al. ’10 [Scott Shane, Mark Mazzetti And Robert F. Worth, “Secret Assault On Terrorism Widens On Two Continents”, August 14, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/world/15shadowwar.html?pagewanted=all]

In pursuing this strategy, … the Bush administration.

Winners win for Obama --- inaction burns capital

Kuttner 11 (Robert, Co-Founder and Co-Editor – American Prospect and Distinguished Senior Fellow – Demos (Think Tank), “Barack Obama’s Theory of Power”, The American Prospect, 5-16,http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power)

Obama’s critics …most part, it hasn’t worked.

Zero backlash to the plan- massively popular

CSM ’11 (Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer, Christian Science Monitor, “US covert attacks in Yemen: A better template for the war on terror?”, June 15, 2011, LEQ)

The new campaign … Libya would suddenly be quite different."

No internal link – political capital doesn’t affect policy making

Edwards 9 – Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University, holds the George and Julia Blucher Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies and has served as the Olin Professor of American Government at Oxford [George, “The Strategic President”, Printed by the Princeton University Press, pg. 149-150]

Even presidents who appeared … in each chamber.

And the media’s claims have no basis—prefer experts.

Edwards ‘9 – Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University, holds the George and Julia Blucher Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies and has served as the Olin Professor of American Government at Oxford [George, “The Strategic President”, Printed by the Princeton University Press, pg. 9-10]

The tenacity with which many … environment.

K

Predictions are possible and accurate – forecasting can provide an accurate basis for scenario planning especially in the case of the topic

de Mesquita  11 (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/)

Given what we know …better prediction.

Political modeling obviates critiques of expertism

de Mesquita  11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/

Good prediction—and … will be ongoing.

Our form of calculations allows us to avoid catastrophe

Kurasawa 4 (Fuyuki, Professor of Sociology – York University of Toronto, Constellations, 11(4)) jl

Rather than bemoaning …alternative world order (IV).

Positivism is best – self correcting and it uses observable regularities to inform action – focus on epistemology causes a retreat from policy relevance

Houghton 8 (David Patrick Ass. Prof. of IR at UCF, Positivism ‘vs’ Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference? International Politics (2008) 45)

As long ago as 1981, … of international relations scholars today.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient and globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen ‘11 (John M. Owen Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/

Andrew Mack and his …. But general U.S. material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.

Literature and psychological bias runs towards threat deflation- we are the opposite of paranoid

Schweller ‘4 [Randall L. Schweller, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at The Ohio State University, “Unanswered Threats A Neoclassical RealistTheory of Underbalancing,” International Security 29.2 (2004) 159-201, Muse]

Despite the historical … some basic domestic-level variables that regularly intervene to thwart balance of power predictions.

Inherency

AQAP is increasing strength and the ttatus quo should trigger any links- United States is increasing both focus and funding on Yemen- its our top priority

Radin 12/15 (CJ Radin, Author of the Long War Journal, “Some remarkable facts about the 'US Strategy for Counterterrorism”, http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/12/in_an_interview_on_tuesday.php, December 15, 2011, LEQ)

In an interview on Tuesday, … policy at the highest level.

AQAP

Al Qaeda is developing nuclear and biological weapons

Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html

Al-Qaida is on the … cause “extraordinary loss of life”.

Nuclear terrorism causes retaliation with Russia/ China

Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a … unable or unwilling to provide.

CBW attacks ensure multiple scenarios for extinction

Kellman ‘8 (Barry Kellman is the director of the International Weapons Control Center, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat”, The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf)

A looming danger confronts the … dire consequences for all humanity.

Al-Qaeda will successfully attack nuclear power plants across the globe – causes meltdowns and kills the nuclear industry

Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared … failure within a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction

Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake … could be, literally, an apocalyptic event.

Only nuclear power prevents catastrophic warming

Lynas 11 – author of "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet" and "High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis" (Mark, 04/10, “Why nuclear power is still a good choice,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/10/opinion/la-oe-lynas-nukes-20110410)

For the green movement, which … no Yucca Mountains needed there.

Warming causes extinction

McPherson 11 – professor emeritus of natural resources and the environment at the University of Arizona (Guy, 08/20, “Three paths to near-term human extinction,” http://guymcpherson.com/2011/08/three-paths-to-near-term-human-extinction/)

About a decade ago I realized we … ahead of an overheating planet.

Independently, CO2 emissions will destroy the ocean - causes extinction

Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News,  Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?,” June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html, EMM)

Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm … beginning to fail', he added.

Scenario Two is Strategy Shift-

Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift

Cilluffo ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)

Debates over the legality of … an inevitable attack from AQAP.

The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

One of the greatest challenges … counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.

This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has … it would have otherwise been.

Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis

The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons … repeat itself and everybody loses.

Yemen

Yemen instability causes Naval kick out of the Socotra island- that’s key to our Naval base in Socotra, oil access, Horn of Africa stability and Bahrain Naval activity

Eshel ’11 (David Eshel, IDF veteran and experienced writer in the world's leading defense publications for many years, “Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate””, NEWS ANALYSIS, July 26th, 2011, http://defense-update.com/20110726_al_qaeda_in_yemen.html)

Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate”, LEQ)

Yemen has become a nightmare come … that leave the United States?

And instability causes our military forces to withdrawal

Lake ’11 (Eli Lake, The Washington … , March 24, 2011, LEQ)

The Pentagon is being urged … to visit Djibouti next month.

Socotra is the vital internal link into US naval supremacy- we are building a full-military base there

Chussudovsky 10 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460)

 "Whoever attains maritime supremacy … decided in these waters." MAP 4

A strong US Navy is uniquely critical to preserving benign US heg and international stability- key to economic growth

Eaglen and McGrath ’11 (Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan McGrath is a retired naval officer and the Director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis in Vienna, Virginia. On active duty, he commanded the destroyer USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) and served as the primary author of the current maritime strategy, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)

Abstract: America is a maritime power, … that break on its shores.

Collapse of American credibility turns every impact in the debate

Kagan ‘11 (The Price of Power The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18 • By ROBERT KAGAN Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

• American forces deployed in … table will not fall over. 

Economic decline causes protectionism and war due to power transitions

Royal ‘10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods … considered ancillary to those views.

Horn of Africa instability causes nuclear war

Glick ‘7 (Dec. 10, 2007 Caroline Glick , THE JERUSALEM POST)

The Horn of Africa is a … killing nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians.

Oil shock causes extinction

Henderson ‘7 (Climate Change, Peak Oil And Nuclear War By Bill Henderson 24 February, 2007 Countercurrents.org)

A steep spike in the … of pre-emptive nuclear attack.

Solvency

The plan solves – improving civil law enforcement capabilities is crucial for short and long term success against AQAP

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter Knoetgne, CEJISS, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, May 16, 2011)

 If the Yemeni terror … in support of this effort.

The plan reverses Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP

Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)

It is becoming increasingly clear … attacks against the United States.

Law enforcement training is essential to creating a mechanism of information exchange

Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a

senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf

In the international effort to … ripples into the United States. 

That information exchange mechanism is essential to succeeding against Al Qaeda

Derek Reveron is an associated professor at the Naval War College, an editorial board member of the Defense Intelligence Journal, and a long-time intelligence analyst, “Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence Sharing in the War on Terror”, Summer 2006, http://derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf

Intelligence is the first line … ” that the information revolution created.

This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange

Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/

AQAP’s ability to survive the … and reliable local intelligence assets.

Police are the vital internal link into counter-terror success- empirically proven

Mayborn ’11 [William Mayborn, “Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen,” April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf]

The above policy indicators of … , rather than counterproductive missile strikes.

Only the plan can solve- building Yemen’s own institutional capacity through US-Yemen partnership is key

Shari Villarosa Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management Washington, DC, “Denying Terrorists Safe Havens: Efforts to Counter Threats from Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia” WASHINGTON, June 8, 2011, http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20Villarosa.pdf

How We Are Addressing Terrorist … Department and in the interagency.

Plan Text- Police

Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its support for civil law training programs in Yemen.

Inherency

AQAP is increasing strength and the status quo should trigger any links- United States is increasing both focus and funding on Yemen- its our top priority

Radin 12/15 (CJ Radin, Author of the Long War Journal, “Some remarkable facts about the 'US Strategy for Counterterrorism”, http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/12/in_an_interview_on_tuesday.php, December 15, 2011, LEQ)

In an interview on Tuesday, … policy at the highest level.

AQAP

Al Qaeda is developing nuclear and biological weapons

Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html

Al-Qaida is on the … cause “extraordinary loss of life”.

Nuclear terrorism causes retaliation with Russia/ China

Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a … unable or unwilling to provide.

CBW attacks ensure multiple scenarios for extinction

Kellman ‘8 (Barry Kellman is the director of the International Weapons Control Center, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat”, The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf)

A looming danger confronts the … dire consequences for all humanity.

Al-Qaeda will successfully attack nuclear power plants across the globe – causes meltdowns and kills the nuclear industry

Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared … failure within a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction

Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake … could be, literally, an apocalyptic event.

Only nuclear power prevents catastrophic warming

Lynas 11 – author of "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet" and "High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis" (Mark, 04/10, “Why nuclear power is still a good choice,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/10/opinion/la-oe-lynas-nukes-20110410)

For the green movement, which … no Yucca Mountains needed there.

Warming causes extinction

McPherson 11 – professor emeritus of natural resources and the environment at the University of Arizona (Guy, 08/20, “Three paths to near-term human extinction,” http://guymcpherson.com/2011/08/three-paths-to-near-term-human-extinction/)

About a decade ago I realized we … ahead of an overheating planet.

Independently, CO2 emissions will destroy the ocean - causes extinction

Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News,  Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?,” June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html, EMM)

Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm … beginning to fail', he added.

Scenario Two is Strategy Shift-

Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift

Cilluffo ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)

Debates over the legality of … an inevitable attack from AQAP.

The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

One of the greatest challenges … counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.

This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has … it would have otherwise been.

Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis

The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons … repeat itself and everybody loses.

Yemen

Yemen instability causes Naval kick out of the Socotra island- that’s key to our Naval base in Socotra, oil access, Horn of Africa stability and Bahrain Naval activity

Eshel ’11 (David Eshel, IDF veteran and experienced writer in the world's leading defense publications for many years, “Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate””, NEWS ANALYSIS, July 26th, 2011, http://defense-update.com/20110726_al_qaeda_in_yemen.html)

Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate”, LEQ)

Yemen has become a nightmare come … that leave the United States?

And instability causes our military forces to withdrawal

Lake ’11 (Eli Lake, The Washington … , March 24, 2011, LEQ)

The Pentagon is being urged … to visit Djibouti next month.

Socotra is the vital internal link into US naval supremacy- we are building a full-military base there

Chussudovsky 10 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460)

 "Whoever attains maritime supremacy … decided in these waters." MAP 4

A strong US Navy is uniquely critical to preserving benign US heg and international stability- key to economic growth

Eaglen and McGrath ’11 (Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan McGrath is a retired naval officer and the Director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis in Vienna, Virginia. On active duty, he commanded the destroyer USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) and served as the primary author of the current maritime strategy, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)

Abstract: America is a maritime power, … that break on its shores.

Collapse of American credibility turns every impact in the debate

Kagan ‘11 (The Price of Power The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18 • By ROBERT KAGAN Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

• American forces deployed in … table will not fall over. 

Economic decline causes protectionism and war due to power transitions

Royal ‘10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods … considered ancillary to those views.

Horn of Africa instability causes nuclear war

Glick ‘7 (Dec. 10, 2007 Caroline Glick , THE JERUSALEM POST)

The Horn of Africa is a … killing nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians.

Oil shock causes extinction

Henderson ‘7 (Climate Change, Peak Oil And Nuclear War By Bill Henderson 24 February, 2007 Countercurrents.org)

A steep spike in the … of pre-emptive nuclear attack.

Instability at the Gulf of Aden collapses global trade

Yuriditsky 9/28 – Associate of the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Lev, “Yemen's Chaos - August 2011,” http://yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html)

Towards the end of July, … make for a particularly challenging situation.

The impact is global nuclear war

Panzner 8 (Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)

Continuing calls for curbs on … beginnings of a new world war. 

Political instability in Socotra trades off with bio-diversity focus

Yahia ’11 (Yahia Mohammed, editor at Nature Middle East- for over three years, Mohammed has worked on raising the profile of science and science journalism in the Middle East. He graduated from Cairo University with a bachelor degree in Pharmacy and Pharmacology, “Foreign researchers flee Yemen leaving conservation programmes in trouble,” http://www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110322/full/nmiddleeast.2011.36.html, March 22, 2011, LEQ)

Public protests in Yemen that … could quickly follow, he warns.

Collapse of biodiversity causes extinction

Young ‘10 (PhD coastal marine ecology, 10 [Ruth, “Biodiversity: what it is and why it’s important”, February 9th, http://www.talkingnature.com/2010/02/biodiversity/biodiversity-what-and-why/]

Different species within ecosystems fill … of biodiversity maintains this service.

Solvency

The plan solves – improving civil law enforcement capabilities is crucial for short and long term success against AQAP

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter Knoetgne, CEJISS, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, May 16, 2011)

 If the Yemeni terror … in support of this effort.

The plan reverses Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP

Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)

It is becoming increasingly clear … attacks against the United States.

Law enforcement training is essential to creating a mechanism of information exchange

Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a

senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf

In the international effort to … ripples into the United States. 

That information exchange mechanism is essential to succeeding against Al Qaeda

Derek Reveron is an associated professor at the Naval War College, an editorial board member of the Defense Intelligence Journal, and a long-time intelligence analyst, “Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence Sharing in the War on Terror”, Summer 2006, http://derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf

Intelligence is the first line … ” that the information revolution created.

This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange

Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/

AQAP’s ability to survive the … and reliable local intelligence assets.

Police are the vital internal link into counter-terror success- empirically proven

Mayborn ’11 [William Mayborn, “Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen,” April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf]

The above policy indicators of … , rather than counterproductive missile strikes.

Only the plan can solve- building Yemen’s own institutional capacity through US-Yemen partnership is key

Shari Villarosa Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management Washington, DC, “Denying Terrorists Safe Havens: Efforts to Counter Threats from Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia” WASHINGTON, June 8, 2011, http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20Villarosa.pdf

How We Are Addressing Terrorist … Department and in the interagency.

Plan Text- Police

Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its support for civil law training programs in Yemen.

Advantage 1 is AQAP

AQAP is gaining momentum  

Gardner 1/18

(Frank Gardner, BBC security correspondent, “Yemen crisis: Is al-Qaeda gaining ground?”, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16612072, January 18, 2012, LEQ)

In the last few days, … They are a group on the move."

And the attack will be biological and nuclear

Blake et al ’11 (Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html)

Al-Qaida is on the verge … potential to cause “extraordinary loss of life”.

CBW attacks cause extinction

Kellman ‘8 (Barry Kellman is the director of the International Weapons Control Center, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat”, The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf)

A looming danger confronts the world…  to these challenges could have dire consequences for all humanity.

And causes war with Russia and China

Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor … the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.

Scenario Two is Strategy Shift-

Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy –

Cilluffo ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)

Debates over the legality of pursuing AQAP in Yemen … now to prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.

The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s key to successful international cooperation

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

One of the greatest challenges currently facing the United … have bedevilled counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.

This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – it spills over

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has failed to become … than it would have otherwise been.

Multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars

Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis

The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use that … history will repeat itself and everybody loses.

Advantage 2 is Socotra

Yemen instability causes Naval kick out of the Socotra island- that’s key to our Naval base in Socotra, oil access, Horn of Africa stability and Bahrain Naval activity

Eshel ’11 (David Eshel, IDF veteran and experienced writer in the world's leading defense publications for many years, “Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate””, NEWS ANALYSIS, July 26th, 2011, http://defense-update.com/20110726_al_qaeda_in_yemen.html)

Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate”, LEQ)

Yemen has become a nightmare come true … Sunni threat- an where would that leave the United States?

*And instability causes our military forces to withdrawal

Lake ’11 (Eli Lake, The Washington Times, Geopolitics Analyst at the Washington Times, “Pentagon urged to find ‘Plan B’ for base as Yemeni crisis grows”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/24/pentagon-urged-to-find-plan-b-for-base-as-yemeni-c/?page=all, March 24, 2011, LEQ)

The Pentagon is being urged to move its counterterrorism operations … officer who plans to visit Djibouti next month.

Socotra is the vital internal link into US naval supremacy-

Chussudovsky 10 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460)

"Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian … the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters." MAP 4

The US Navy is key to heg and the global economy

Eaglen and McGrath ’11 ( “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)

Abstract: America is a maritime power, and a strong U.S. Navy is both in America’s long-term interest and essential to the nation’s prosperity. … sea power is a mirror of America’s greatness and the extent to which America’s future is tied to the great oceans that break on its shores.

Economic decline causes extinction

Royal ‘10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may … the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Collapse of American credibility turns every impact in the debate

Kagan ‘11 (The Price of Power The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18 • By ROBERT KAGAN Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

• American forces deployed in East Asia and the Western Pacific have … This is a great if recurring illusion, the idea that you can pull a leg out from under a table and the table will not fall over. 

New India Advantage

The plan’s switch to local police ensures an information sharing strategy with key partners

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter Knoetgen, Captain Peter M. Knoetgen, USNR, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Detachment 108, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, http://cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, May 16, 2011, LEQ)

While efforts to combat the long-term capability of AQAP must comprise a large part of Yemeni CT …  AQAP while protecting itself against short term threats.

US strategy shift is necessary to resolve the rift between the US and India over counter-terror cooperation- spills over into broader relations and solves Pakistan terrorism

Curtin ’11 (Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow, U.S.–India Counterterrorism Cooperation: Deepening the Partnership, http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/2011/09/us-india-counterterrorism-cooperation-deepening-the-partnership, September 15, 2011, LEQ)

The U.S. and India are under threat from terrorists that seek … which includes bolstering and reforming its police forces.

Two impacts- first

Relations are good-

US Indian relations solves warming

Scherr 9 (Jacob Scherr, “Director, Global Strategy & Advocacy” at NRDC (National Resources Defense Council) and Bidisha Banerjee, Cameron Speth Fellow, NRDC, “Greening U.S-India Relations”, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/jscherr/greening_usindia_relations.html, July 16, 2009, LEQ)

Yesterday Hillary Clinton discussed her upcoming trip to India at the Council on Foreign Relations, … " which will put us on a "path to safer, healthier world."

Extinction

Sify 10 - Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC (Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?,” June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html)

Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about how growing concentrations … in some cases beginning to fail', he added.

Relations are key to prevent Asian instability, terrorism, prolif and to increase free trade and democracy
 Burns ‘5 (Undersecretary for Political Affairs (Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, 9-8-05, Congressional Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, “The U.S. and India: An Emerging Entente?”http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/dos/dos090805.pdf)

A strong democratic India is an important partner for the United States. … because of the resonance all these programs have for both countries. 

Asian instability leads to global nuclear war

Landay 2k (Jonathon, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent with 15 Years of Experience for Night Ridder, “Top administration officials warn stakes for US are high in Asian conflicts,” March 11th, Lexis)

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan, … security mechanism in place. There are elements for potential disaster."

Prolif causes global nuclear use

Kissinger 4 (Henry, Former Secretary of State, “America’s Assignment,” November 8th, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6371121/)

While militant Islam is the most immediate and obvious challenge to international order, … justification for unconscionable acts in support of terrorism.

Trade collapse causes global nuclear war

Panzner 8 (Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)

Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United States … Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war. 

Second is LeT

Counter terror cooperation is key to solve LeT

ExpressIndia ’11 (ExpessIndia, http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/PentagontoenhanceIndoUScounterterrorismcooperation/869413/, November 2, 2011)

On the counter-terrorism front… our common security goals," it said.

LeT attacks cause an Indo-Pak war

Dreazen ’10 [Yochi J. Dreazen, “Gates Warns of Militants in South Asia”, Wall Street Journal January 21, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704320104575014752587809016.html]

NEW DELHI—U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said al Qaeda is working with an array…  and would be limited were there to be further attacks.''

India will retaliate

Riedel ’11 [Bruce Riedel, “New Delhi's Abbottabad Mission”, June 22, 2011, National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/new-delhis-abbottabad-mission-5508]

President Obama was right and brave to send the SEALs to … the ground rules on May 2, 2011.

nuclear war

Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand … be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.

*India Pakistan nuclear escalation is the most probable – next few years are key to prevent failure of deterrence

Ricks ’11 (Senior fellow, Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank that studies national security issues * Contributing editor, Foreign Policy magazine * Special military correspondent, the Washington Post * Author, Fiasco and The Gamble, about Iraq Graduated from Yale in 1977.  The most likely apocalypse in our future: An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Tuesday, March 8, 2011 - 10:42 AM Share)

The point that all three panelists expressed was simple but important… This is a global problem.

*Best new studies prove this would cause extinction

Starr ’11 (Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR

Only a single failure of nuclear deterrence is required to … in the currently operational and deployed U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

Solvency

The plan solves – improving civil law enforcement capabilities is crucial for short and long term success against AQAP

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter Knoetgne, CEJISS, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, May 16, 2011)

 If the Yemeni terror threat had not … lend decades’ worth of insights in support of this effort.

The plan reverses Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP

Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)

It is becoming increasingly clear that … the less likely al-Qaeda will have a safe haven within which to launch attacks against the United States.

Law enforcement training is essential to creating a mechanism of information exchange

Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a

senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf

In the international effort to combat terrorism, it has become utterly clear, …  around the globe could have devastating ripples into the United States. 

That information exchange mechanism is essential to succeeding against Al Qaeda

Derek Reveron is an associated professor at the Naval War College, an editorial board member of the Defense Intelligence Journal, and a long-time intelligence analyst, “Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence Sharing in the War on Terror”, Summer 2006, http://derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf

Intelligence is the first line of defense against terrorism. … that the information revolution created.

This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange

Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/

AQAP’s ability to survive the American-Yemeni campaign … military allies and reliable local intelligence assets.

Police are the vital internal link into counter-terror success- empirically proven

Mayborn ’11 [William Mayborn, “Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen,” April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf]

The above policy indicators of increased military assistance … gathering purposes, rather than counterproductive missile strikes.

Only the plan can solve- building Yemen’s own institutional capacity through US-Yemen partnership is key

Shari Villarosa Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management Washington, DC, “Denying Terrorists Safe Havens: Efforts to Counter Threats from Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia” WASHINGTON, June 8, 2011, http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20Villarosa.pdf

How We Are Addressing Terrorist Safe Havens … sector assistance at the State Department and in the interagency.

2AC CASE EXTENSIONS

Plan Solves Alt Cause

Plan solves alt causes

Boucek 11 (Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, "Higher Stakes in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 14, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/14/higher-stakes-in-yemen/1rl)

This current political crisis is the biggest obstacle to dealing with …we’re able to focus on those other issues, the better.

More ev

Lewis ’11 (Alexandra Lewis is a researcher and doctoral candidate at the Post-War Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of York., “Stabilizing Yemen”, http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Stabilizing_Yemen, February 16, 2011)

If Yemen's crises are to be overcome through regional … choose between financing one or the other.

AT: Yemen Says No

Empirically denied – they’ve let us do countless things in the region to help with AQAP this year alone; no reason why they’d reject the plan.

They will say yes – newest ev flows aff

Reuters 1/16 (Reuters, staff, 1-16 [staff, “Yemen PM says country needs "tens of billions" in aid”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/16/us-yemen-aid-idUSTRE80F16520120116]

Yemen needs billions of dollars in aid and has received … to a recent government and U.N. survey.

Yemen opposition likes the plan

Terrill 11 – W. Andrew Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2, 2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2

 The Yemeni opposition is aware of Western … absorbed in its own problems to do much to contain AQAP.32

We quote opposition leaders

Karman ’11 (Tawakkol Karman, a leader of Yemen’s democratic youth movement, is the founder of Women Journalists Without Chains. This article was translated by Garrett Davidson from the Arabic , “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all, June 18, 2011, LEQ)

Sadly, it seems likely that the United States will support figures … and the culture of terrorism by bolstering civil society and encouraging development and stability.

The plan’s cooperative nature solves any say no warrants

Chatham House ’11 (Chatham House International Think Tank and Work Group, MENA Programme: Yemen Forum Workshop Report, “Executive Summary Yemen: Strategies for Change – Playing the Policy Game”, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Middle%20East/1011yf_wksummary_es.pdf, October 2011, LEQ)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This is a report from a one-day workshop … role of international organisations in Yemen.

AQAP Strong Now

Aqap gearing up in the power vaccume – will lead to another attack

AP 1/20 (Associated Press, staff, 1-20 [Bradley Klapper, “ AP sources: US seeks new home for Yemen strongman”, http://washingtonexaminer.com/news/2012/01/ap-sources-us-seeks-new-home-yemen-strongman/2116526?category=18#ixzz1k3DAsvEm

Al-Qaida's advance, in particular, … Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas 2009 and cargo planes bound for the United States a year later.

AQAP increasing in strength- gaining momentum

Roggio 1/16 (Bill Roggio, American commentator on military affairs, “AQAP fighters seize control of Yemeni town, swear allegiance to Zawahiri”, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/01/aqap_fighters_seize.php, January 16, 2012, LEQ)

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken control of yet … the southern port city of Aden as ripe for an AQAP takeover.

More evidence

Australian 1/18 (The Australian, Al-Qa'ida militants cut swath through Yemen, Lexis, January 18, 2012, LEQ)

SANAA: A band of al-Qa'ida militants has taken full … network are thought to be located.

Al-Qaeda is Yemen is strengthening – threatens Aden

Gordon 1/12 – American Enterprise Institute (Sasha, “Taiz: The Heart of Yemen's Revolution,” http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/gordon-taiz-heart-yemen-revolution-january-12-2012)

America’s primary interest in Yemen is the sanctuary that the fractured country provides … AQAP fighters who are expanding their sanctuaries and threatening the key port city of Aden.

Yemen Key/ Safe Haven (AT: CP)

Yemen is the crucial linchpin of all global AQ operations
Scheuer ‘8 (Michael Scheuer is a former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst. He is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, “Yemen’s Role in al-Qaeda’s Strategy”, Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1)

Osama bin Laden has always had a very soft spot in his heart for Yemen, … after the late-2006 invasion of Ethiopian forces.

The safe haven is essential to a large-scale attack

Arkedis ‘9 (Jim Arkedis is the director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007.  “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, Foreign Policy, October 23, 2009, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)

Although the group has been significantly weakened since late 2001, …, the U.S. president's best bet is to deny al Qaeda the only physical space it can access.

Yemen is key to global base operations- they will launch international attacks

Boucek ‘9 (Christopher Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for Peace, CNN, “Yemen's Problems Will Not Stay in Yemen”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2009/12/30/yemen-s-problems-will-not-stay-in-yemen/3zw, December 30, 2009, LEQ)

In recent days, international attention has refocused on the … U.S. and allied targets throughout the Gulf region and globally.

Addon- Cyberterrorism (AQAP)

Al Qaeda is gearing up for Cyberattacks – they have the capability

Faryal Leghari is Assistant Editor (Opinion) of Khaleej Times, “Hit C for cyberterrorism”, Jan 29, 2011, http://www.yobserver.com/opinions/10020698.html

The defining word for the new age is ‘smart’. … treaty may still take years to come through, it is time to shape our defenses accordingly.

That causes nuclear war

Fritz ‘9 – researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University (Jason, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf)

This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons… without the need for compromising command and control centres directly.

Addon- Resource Wars (Navy)

Navy solves resource wars

Eaglen and McGrath ’11 (Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)

*The scenario described here is inspired by work done by Decision Strategies International (DSI) for the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Planning Process describing collapse of America’s Navy in the above section of the article “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power- Implications for US Defense Policy”

Global maritime trade declines dramatically due to rising oil prices, terrorism, … Piracy increases worldwide, driving food transportation costs even higher.

Global war

Klare ‘6 (Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2006

(Michael, Mar 6 2006, “The coming resource wars” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13605)

It's official: the era of resource wars is upon us. … but rather will be channeled into contests over valuable sources of water, food and energy.

We meet – civil law enforcement provides rule of law and governance- direct political varaibles

Police is DA

Goldstone and Wiatrowski ’10 [Michael D. Wiatrowski was formerly associate professor of criminal justice at Florida Atlantic University and chair of the Criminal Justice Department at Utica College of Syracuse University. As a lieutenantcolonel in the U.S. Army Reserves, he served on police-training missions in Bosnia and Haiti. Jack A. Goldstone is Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University. He chaired the National Academy of Sciences study Improving Democracy Assistance (2008). “The Ballot and the Badge Democratic Policing”, Journal of Democracy, Volume 21, Number 2, April 2010, pp. 79-92]

The training of police forces has become … and tactical skills of police.

Counter interpretation – DA includes aid for rule of law, civil society, elections and good governance

McMahon ‘2, -Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science Binghamton University-2 The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study 

http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf

U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies may differ somewhat in their definition of democracy assistance, and some may direct … shown to reflect across-the-board improvements as a result of U.S. assistance.

We meet rule of law

Timothy E. Wirth, Under Secretary Of State For Global Affairs, Prepared Statement Before The House International Relations Committee, December 1, 1995, http://www.archive.org/stream/democracyruleofl00unit/democracyruleofl00unit_djvu.txt

At times, Mr. Chairman, the daily ins and outs of policy can make us … institutions, develop a market economy or protect the rights of its citizens.

Prefer our interpretation –

Predictable limits – their interp is arbitrary and unpredictable; only ours has an intent define which provides a predictable amount of ground to the aff and neg

No ground loss – we’re the core of the topic, no lack of disad or cp ground 

We are more heart of the topic- necessary for substantive debate

And a larger topic is neccary for aff ground- smaller limits are net worse

Lit checks/ no abuse/ don’t vote on potential abuse

Default to Reasonability- good is good enough

Checks back all their arbitrariness and judge intervention arguments.  Key internal link to topic specific education - we should let the lit guide us, not arbitrary interpretations

Competing interpretations causes a race to the bottom and justifies only our aff is topical

Democracy and democracy assistance are simply not static concepts

Susan B. Epstein, Nina M. Serafino, and Francis T. Miko Specialists in Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division December 26, 2007.  “Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of  U.S. Foreign Policy?” CRS REPORT FOR CONGRESS http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34296.pdf

Continuing Challenges.  Democracy…   Even basic concepts are far from settled.

Liberia police funding now

All Africa 1/20 (African online newspaper, staff, 1-20 [“Liberia: Secretary Clinton Assures Prez. Sirleaf of Continued Support”, http://allafrica.com/stories/201201200836.html]

Secretary Clinton said the United States also wants to support … the Secretary of State assured the President.

Russia sphere of influence in Yemen non-existant

Ray 9/8 (Julie Ray, Writer and analyst at Gallup, Gallup/World,  “Russia's Leadership Not Popular Worldwide “,http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-leadership-not-popular-worldwide-2011-8, August 8, 2011, LEQ)

Russia's leadership has relatively few fans worldwide, … introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

No Link – none of their evidence is talking about Law Enforcement Training in Yemen – their evidence is speaking to things like election assistance – if not then recent Drone activity should have triggered the link- that’s X

Russian navy collapsing now

Singh ’12 (Madan G Singh, Air Force Wing Commander, “The Russian Navy Needs an Overhaul”,  http://expertscolumn.com/content/russian-navy-needs-overhaul, January 10, 2012, LEQ)

A few days back one of the Russian Navy's nuclear powerd submarine suffered an … with the submarines and surface ships does not inspire confidence

Their Blance card cites Syria and Libya as alt causes

Blanche ‘8 (Ed, “The Russians Are Coming,” The Middle East, December, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2742/is_395/ai_n31874665/)

Western concerns that the Kremlin seeks … the Dardenelles, expires in 2017.

And Syria is more important

Blanche ‘8 (Ed, “The Russians Are Coming,” The Middle East, December, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2742/is_395/ai_n31874665/)

The main target of the Russian military thrust into … arms supplier during the Cold War.

Status quo triggers this Syria link

Roberts ‘11 (Paul Craig, Father of Reaganomics and the former head of policy at the Department of Treasury, August 1, “The Road to Armageddon”, http://hamsayeh.net/society/1006-the-road-to-armageddon.html)

The Libyan war upped the risk…  as America's largest foreign creditor.

No impact to Russian economy

Blackwill, 09 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning (Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)

Now on to Russia. Again, five years from today. … any serious way by the economic crisis.

Russian economy resilient

Stokes, 08 (Bruce Stokes. "Don't Ignore the Russian Bear." Council on Foreign Relations,  http://www.cfr.org/publication/3225/dont_ignore_the_russian_bear.html)

A little less than a year ago, August 17 to be precise, … industrial subsidies or government reliance on simply printing money.

Addon- NATO (Navy)

Navy key to NATO

Eaglen and McGrath ’11 (Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan McGrath is a retired naval officer and the Director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis in Vienna, Virginia. On active duty, he commanded the destroyer USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) and served as the primary author of the current maritime strategy, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)

*The scenario described here is inspired by work done by Decision Strategies International (DSI) for the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Planning Process describing collapse of America’s Navy in the above section of the article “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power- Implications for US Defense Policy”

The NATO alliance is shattered. The … and Europe as a whole maintains little airlift capacity.

Nuclear war

O’Sullivan ’98 (John O'Sullivan, editor of the National Review and founder of the New Atlantic, 6-1998 [American Spectator)

Some of those ideas--notably, … the main guarantor of European stability.

Plan Text- Police

Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its support for civil law training programs in Yemen.

Advantage 1 is AQAP

AQAP gaining momentum- key group

Gardner 1/18

(Frank Gardner, BBC security correspondent, “Yemen crisis: Is al-Qaeda gaining ground?”, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16612072, January 18, 2012, LEQ)

In the last few days, militants linked to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have stormed a town less than 100. They have been strengthening their hand because of a lack of governance in Yemen. They are a group on the move."

And the attack will be biological and nuclear

Blake et al ’11 (Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html)

Al-Qaida is on the verge of

AND

potential to cause “extraordinary loss of life”.

CBW attacks ensure multiple scenarios for extinction

Kellman ‘8 (Barry Kellman is the director of the International Weapons Control Center, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat”, The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf)

A looming danger confronts the world—the

AND

challenges could have dire consequences for all humanity.

And causes war with Russia and China

Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

AND

latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.

Al-Qaeda will successfully attack nuclear power plants across the globe – causes meltdowns and kills the nuclear industry

Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared

AND

a catastrophic failure within a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction

Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $

AND

be, literally, an apocalyptic event.

Only nuclear power prevents catastrophic warming

Lynas 11 – author of "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet" and "High Tide: The Truth About Our Climate Crisis" (Mark, 04/10, “Why nuclear power is still a good choice,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/10/opinion/la-oe-lynas-nukes-20110410)

For the green movement, which is often

AND

years, so no Yucca Mountains needed there.

Warming causes extinction

McPherson 11 – professor emeritus of natural resources and the environment at the University of Arizona (Guy, 08/20, “Three paths to near-term human extinction,” http://guymcpherson.com/2011/08/three-paths-to-near-term-human-extinction/)

About a decade ago I realized we were

AND

try to stay ahead of an overheating planet.

Independently, CO2 emissions will destroy the ocean - causes extinction

Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News,  Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?,” June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html, EMM)

Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about

AND

some cases beginning to fail', he added.

Scenario Two is Strategy Shift-

Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift

Cilluffo ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)

Debates over the legality of pursuing AQAP in

AND

now to prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.

The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

One of the greatest challenges currently facing the

AND

have bedevilled counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.

This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has failed to become

AND

more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

Gwynne Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis

The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use 

AND

then history will repeat itself and everybody loses.

US strategy shift is necessary to resolve the rift between the US and India over counter-terror cooperation- spills over into broader relations and solves Pakistan terrorism

Curtin ’11 (Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow, U.S.–India Counterterrorism Cooperation: Deepening the Partnership, http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/2011/09/us-india-counterterrorism-cooperation-deepening-the-partnership, September 15, 2011, LEQ)

The U.S. and India are

AND

which includes bolstering and reforming its police forces.

Relations are key to prevent Asian instability, and prolif

Burns ‘5 (Undersecretary for Political Affairs (Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, 9-8-05, Congressional Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, “The U.S. and India: An Emerging Entente?”http://www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/dos/dos090805.pdf)

A strong democratic India is an important partner

AND

resonance all these programs have for both countries. 

Asian instability leads to global nuclear war

Landay 2k (Jonathon, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent with 15 Years of Experience for Night Ridder, “Top administration officials warn stakes for US are high in Asian conflicts,” March 11th, Lexis)

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan

AND

place. There are elements for potential disaster."

Prolif causes a breakdown of global stability and nuclear use

Kissinger 4 (Henry, Former Secretary of State, “America’s Assignment,” November 8th, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6371121/)

While militant Islam is the most immediate and

AND

justification for unconscionable acts in support of terrorism.

Counter terror cooperation is key to solve LeT

ExpressIndia ’11 (ExpessIndia, http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/PentagontoenhanceIndoUScounterterrorismcooperation/869413/, November 2, 2011)

On the counter-terrorism front, the

AND

of our common security goals," it said.

LeT will destabilize the whole region- cause an Indo-Pak war

Dreazen ’10 [Yochi J. Dreazen,

AND

.com/article/SB10001424052748704320104575014752587809016.html]

NEW DELHI—U.S. Defense

AND

limited were there to be further attacks.''

Nuclear war

Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz

AND

be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.

Advantage 2 is Socotra

Yemen instability causes Naval kick out of the Socotra island- that’s key to our Naval base in Socotra, oil access, Horn of Africa stability and Bahrain Naval activity

Eshel ’11 (David Eshel, IDF veteran and experienced writer in the world's leading defense publications for many years, “Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate””, NEWS ANALYSIS, July 26th, 2011, http://defense-update.com/20110726_al_qaeda_in_yemen.html)

Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate”, LEQ)

Yemen has become a nightmare come true for

AND

an where would that leave the United States?

Socotra is key to US naval power

Chussudovsky 10 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460)

"Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian

AND

will be decided in these waters." MAP 4

That’s key to heg

Eaglen and McGrath ’11 (Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan McGrath is a retired naval officer and the Director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis in Vienna, Virginia. On active duty, he commanded the destroyer USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) and served as the primary author of the current maritime strategy, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)

Abstract: America is a maritime power,

AND

the great oceans that break on its shores.

Collapse of American credibility turns every impact in the debate

Kagan ‘11 (The Price of Power The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18 • By ROBERT KAGAN Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

• American forces deployed in East Asia and

AND

table and the table will not fall over. 

Solvency

The plan solves – improving civil law enforcement capabilities is crucial for short and long term success against AQAP

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter Knoetgne, CEJISS, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, May 16, 2011)

 If the Yemeni terror threat had not

AND

worth of insights in support of this effort.

The plan reverses Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP

Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)

It is becoming increasingly clear that the departure of Ali Abdullah Saleh from power as president of Yemen is more about “when” it will occur rather than “if.” This unique opportunity will be a significant test for U.S. policymakers as they adjust to a post-Saleh political reality within Yemen even as the threat of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continues. U.S. interests in Yemen have principally been dominated by counter-terrorism concerns and as part of that effort the United States has been working with Yemen’s government to professionalize its counter-terrorism forces and to improve intelligence cooperation. While the United States has also increased its non-military aid in an effort to address many of the pressing economic, development, and political challenges confronting Yemen’s citizens, the great bulk of the American presence in Yemen has been counter-terrorism related. The possible attacks against the United States.

Law enforcement training is essential to creating a mechanism of information exchange

Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a

senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf

In the international effort to combat terrorism,

AND

could have devastating ripples into the United States. 

That information exchange mechanism is essential to succeeding against Al Qaeda

Derek Reveron is an associated professor at the Naval War College, an editorial board member of the Defense Intelligence Journal, and a long-time intelligence analyst, “Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence Sharing in the War on Terror”, Summer 2006, http://derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf

Intelligence is the first line of defense against

AND

of plenty” that the information revolution created.

This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange

Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/

AQAP’s ability to survive the American-Yemeni

AND

competent military allies and reliable local intelligence assets.

Police are the vital internal link into counter-terror success- empirically proven

Mayborn ’11 [William Mayborn, “Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen,” April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf]

The above policy indicators of increased military assistance

AND

gathering purposes, rather than counterproductive missile strikes.

Only the plan can solve- building Yemen’s own institutional capacity through US-Yemen partnership is key

Shari Villarosa Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management Washington, DC, “Denying Terrorists Safe Havens: Efforts to Counter Threats from Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia” WASHINGTON, June 8, 2011, http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20Villarosa.pdf

How We Are Addressing Terrorist Safe Havens To

AND

at the State Department and in the interagency.