Contention 1 AQIM
Security in Libya precarious now—police are worried about retribution
Lubold 11
[Gordon Lubold, “What’s Next for the New Libya”, United States Institute of Peace, 8-30-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/what-s-next-the-new-libya-usip-experts-weigh-in]
Naturally, security is a major concern. … the old regime and people going after those who were aligned with Qaddafi,” she says.
Lack of police causes instability
Haynes 11
[Deborah Haynes, Defense Editor of the London Times, “UK Commentary Warns Islamists, Al-Qadhafi Loyalists Likely to Destabilize Libya”, 8-30-2011]
Anyone who believes that with the fall of Colonel Gaddafi [Al-Qadhafi] …o emerge from four decades of dictatorship as a fair, democratic society but will require forgiveness, courage and resolve to prevent further strife.
Causes a volatile transition to democracy
Tucker 11
[Joshua A. Tucker, Professor of Politics at New York University, a National Security Fellow at the Truman National Security Project ,“Three Ways to Ensure That Libya Isn’t Just Free of Qaddafi, But Truly Democratic”, The New Republic, 8-23-2011, http://www.tnr.com/article/world/94058/three-ways-ensure-libya-isn%E2%80%99t-just-free-gaddafi-truly-democratic]
2. The Immediate Security Situation. This is more of a lesson from Iraq than from the post-communist world, but we now know that the consequences of chaos … inter-ethnic violence like we’ve seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Makes Libya a safe haven for Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
Lister 11
[Tim Lister, “Q&A: Gadhafi’s options, future scenarios and more”, CNN World, 8-24-2011, http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/24/libya.qanda/index.html?iref=obnetwork]
A peaceful if not perfect transition is plausible, but … As one U.S. official put it Tuesday, there are three priorities in Libya now: security, security and security
AQIM is gaining capability and looking to Libya
Ganley 11
[Elaine Ganley, “Al-Qaida in North Africa seeks Arab Spring jihad”, Associated Press, 8-15-2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hfncqhSjMzaaJ1Bw-_qcVq_9uVHA]
Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb wants to put its footprint on the Arab Spring … claims it set the spark for the uprisings around the Arab world
They’ll easily get Libyan WMD
Ennahar Online 11
[“Libya, a potential arsenal for AQIM”, 5-24-2011, http://www.ennaharonline.com/en/international/6618.html]
Libya could become an arsenal for …and some are very sophisticated, are likely to fall in the hands of AQIM," he added. Gilles de Kerchove has also mentioned the dismantling of the intelligence services in Tunisia and Egypt "because they were the arms of repression" and "release of jihadists who have remained active.
Libya’s nuclear material risks being stolen if police step back
Birch 11
[DOUGLAS BIRCH - Associated Press,KIMBERLY DOZIER, "Libya's deadliest weapons not yet corralled", http://news.yahoo.com/libyas-deadliest-weapons-not-yet-corralled-212848414.html]
No one can be sure who controls the Libyan government's weapons stockpiles, … it could be sold for a large profit to those more capable of building a nuclear weapon
AQIM will engage in nuclear terrorism—securing sites is key
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11
[“After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat”, 5-13-2011, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t]
The evolving threat. While Al Qaeda's anti-American ideology is unlikely to change after bin Laden's death, the loss of the group's founder and figurehead could affect Al Qaeda's … predict how bin Laden's death might alter the operational capacity of Al Qaeda, a US priority must be securing this potential source material.
Even a small attack causes great power wars and extinction
Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)
But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchange—are not necessarily separable. It is just possible that some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act of nuclear terrorism, could precipitate a chain of events leading to a massive exchange of nuclear weapons between … just possible that Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force) against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt
Even if it fails it leads to retaliation that leads to extinction
Sid-Ahmed 04
[Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]
What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails…When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
Contention 2 NATO
NATO cohesion is fragile
Volker 11
[Kurt Volker, Senior Advisor to the International Security Program and member of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Advisors Group, is a former US Ambassador to NATO “Libya Not NATO Comeback”, The New Atlanticist: Policy and Analysis, Atlantic Council, 8-23-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-not-nato-comeback]
The leadership problem: Compounding the confusion from the muddled mission was a confusing message about alliance leadership. … need to reaffirm their own responsibility for NATO if it is to mean anything in the future.
Perception of disengagement from Libya undermines European commitments
Joyner 11
[James Joyner, “Libya Exposes Transatlantic Contradictions”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog, Atlantic Council, 8-26-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-exposes-transatlantic-contradictions]
First, for a variety of reasons, many of us opposed American intervention in the conflict. … leadership as well as rendering hypocritical our complaints about European “caveats” in Afghanistan.
Libya is key
Volker 11
[Kurt Volker, Senior Advisor to the International Security Program and member of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Advisors Group, is a former US Ambassador to NATO “Libya Not NATO Comeback”, The New Atlanticist: Policy and Analysis, Atlantic Council, 8-23-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-not-nato-comeback]
The concept of an alliance is one of sharing common strategic purposes … should be, we need to make a realistic assessment of the problems that the Libya operation exposed and work hard to overcome them before the next time NATO's capabilities are needed.
U.S. leadership in the transition solves
Dubik 11
[James M, Institute for the Study of War Senior Fellow, a retired Army lieutenant general who oversaw the training of Iraqi troops from 2007 to 2008, "Finish the Job", 4-26-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/opinion/26Dubik.html?_r=1]
Public pronouncements aside, the unstated strategic aim of the intervention in Libya is to remove Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and his regime, and things are not going well. The United States and NATO must accept that there is no easy way out of this … Washington must now accept that decision and face its consequences.
Strong NATO solves nuclear war
Brzezinski 09
[ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, 2009, U.S. National Security Adviser from 1977 to 1981. His most recent book is Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower, September 2009 - October 2009, (Foreign Affairs, SECTION: Pg. 2 Vol. 88 No. 5, HEADLINE: An Agenda for NATO Subtitle: Toward a Global Security Web, p. Lexis)]
ADJUSTING TO A TRANSFORMED WORLD And yet, it is fair to ask: Is NATO living up to its extraordinary potential? …. The combination of Washington's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO and focused aroused Muslim resentments on the United States and the West more generally
Contention 3 Burden-Sharing
U.S. leadership inevitable—burden-sharing key to effectiveness and sustainability
Jones 11
[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
The first point is one that proponents of the conventional wisdom about the decline of the West should find easy to accept: … The challenge, however, will be to bolster ‘follower-ship’ as well as leadership at the global level. This is as much a domestic issue as anything else: finding a solution will depend upon commitment in many national parliaments and not just the two Houses of Congress.
Libya demonstrates a model of burden-sharing that works
Zakaria 11
[Fareed Zakaria, columnist for Newsweek and editor of Newsweek International, until moving to Editor-At-Large of Time in 2010. He is also the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, and a frequent commentator and author about issues related to international relations, trade and American foreign policy, “How the Lessons of Iraq Paid Off in Libya”, Time Magazine, 8-25-2011]
Back in March, many neoconservatives in Washington were extremely dismissive of the way President Obama was handling the intervention in Libya. They argued that he was doing too little and acting too late … success in Libya could be achieved at less than one-tenth of one percent of the cost of the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. That's not a bad model for the future.
The model walks the tightrope of leadership perfectly
O’Hanlon 11
[Michael E. O’Hanlon, Director of Research and Senior Fellow at Brookings and the 21st Century Defense Initiative, “The Rebellion in Libya at the Tipping Point”, 8-22-2011, http://www.brookings.edu/multimedia/video/2011/0822_ohanlon_libya.aspx]
It still is sort of a signature accomplishment for a …on the one hand, or passivity and isolationism on the other.
But, U.S. involvement on the transition is key
Kagan 11
[Robert Kagan, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a August 26, “An imperfect triumph in Libya”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-imperfect-triumph-in-libya/2011/08/26/gIQA5gC9gJ_story.html]
The toppling of Gaddafi’s 42-year dictatorship is a big victory for the ongoing pan-Arab revolution… know this. Yet the temptation to pocket the president’s “win” and run away from Libya as fast as possible will be great. Obama needs to resist it.
Success of the “Libya model” sets a precedent for future use
Gvosdev 11
[Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media. He is currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, “The Realist Prism: Obama’s Post Realist Turn in Libya”, World Politics Review, 8-26-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9892/the-realist-prism-obamas-post-realist-turn-in-libya]
As the Libya operation enters what appears to be its final phase, the debate is only beginning as to what it portends for the future of U.S. policy and the international system as a whole… action was Saddam's noncompliance with United Nations resolutions concerning weapons of mass destruction and the threat this posed to the United States.
Absent burden-sharing, U.S. will overstretch—no other power wants to fill-in
Jones 11
[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
There is no ready alternative to American leadership and there is … But it will always be there and it will become increasingly overstretched as a result.
Causes premature and sudden withdrawal
Jones 11
[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
Should the United States continue to pursue its ambition to global leadership without the benefit of European support, there will be clear … They must learn to work together if either is to achieve its goals.
Premature withdrawal of leadership causes nuclear war
Brzezinski 05
[Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership”]
History is a record of change, a reminder that nothing endures indefinitely. It can also remind us, however. That some things endure for a long time, and when they disappear, the status quo ante does not reappear. So it will be with the current American global preponderance. It, too, will fade at some point, probably later than some wish and earlier than many Americans take for granted. The key question is: What will replace it? An abrupt termination of American hegemony would without doubt precipitate global chaos, in which international anarchy would be punctuated by eruptions of truly massive destructiveness. … The bottom line is twofold: For the next two decades, the steadying effect of American power will be indispensable to global stability, while the principal challenge to American power can come only from within––either from the repudiation of power by the American democracy itself, or from America’s global misuse of its own power.
Plan
The United States Federal Government should engage in a Justice and Security Dialogue with Libya.
Contention 4 Solvency
U.S. involvement in Libya inevitable
Chaddock 11
[Gail Russell Chaddock, Staff writer at the Christian Science Monitor, “What happens next in Libya? America’s five greatest concerns.”, The Christian Science Monitor, 8-26-2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0826/What-happens-next-in-Libya-America-s-five-greatest-concerns/Secure-Libya-s-arsenal]
There is strong, bipartisan opposition to the use of US ground forces in Libya. … that was partly – in the sense that we intervened militarily – of our own making.”
Libya wants the plan—not coming now
Mohammed 11
[Arshad Mohammed, “Libyan rebels unlikely to seek peacekeeping—U.S.”, Reuters, 8-25-2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/libya-peackeepers-idUSW1E7JM00P20110825]
Libya's rebel Transitional National Council is unlikely … she said Washington would look favorably on a Libyan request to the United Nations.
A JSD would work in Libya
Rausch 11
[Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]
What are some practical things Libyans can do to begin to rebuild critical justice … a new rule of law in those critical days and weeks following a leadership change. It is also working in Kirkuk, Iraq.
Police forces that respect rule-of-law is key to a stable transition
Serwer 11
[Daniel Serwer, professorial lecturer and senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University of Advanced International Studies and a scholar the Middle East Institute, “Where does Libya go from here?”, Reuters, 8-25-2011, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/08/25/where-does-libya-go-from-here/]
There are no magic formulas for how to go about this. … It is tempting to suggest that Arab countries take on this task, but difficult to imagine that they will do it in a way that encourages the kind of community policing that is needed. Even training and retraining 1,000 per year, it will take at least the better part of a decade to put in place a police force Libyan democracy would want.
U.S. leadership in building police and security is vital
Carafano 11
[James Jay Ph.D. , is Deputy Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Davis Institute, and James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center at The Heritage Foundation, 3/31/11]
Washington was wrong to focus myopically on the decision to intervene in Libya and establish a “no-fly” zone. Long before operations began, it was abundantly clear that these operations would not be militarily decisive. The current situation on the ground now bears out that fact. A more comprehensive strategy is required to deal with the Qadhafi regime, bring liberty to Libya, and make a real and lasting contribution …. Certainly, the U.S. should not simply outsource the real heavy lifting to the “international community.”
U.S. leadership avoids disillusionment—even if European actors also solve
Ottaway et al. 11
[Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Fadel Lamen, President of the American-Libyan Council, and Esam Omiesh, Director of the Libyan Emergency Task Force, “Libya: Thinking Ahead to the Transition”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7-14-2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/071411_transcript_LibyaTransition.pdf]
But for an Arab or a Muslim to come and carry another country’s flag or the United States flag … international support and showing the way of practical steps toward reconstruction and reconciliation and transition to democracies, they are a must. Thank you.
