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1AC- US Leadership 

Contention One is U.S. leadership-

The US needs a substantial increase in civil society to restore regional influence in Egypt and the region
Schenker, 11 (David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf)
As with the revolution, Egyptians will be responsible for doing the heavy lifting to ensure the transition goes in a democratic direction. But Washington can play a role in making the process transparent. One way to engage in this effort would be ………………… a presumably fragile new government, and cause an already wary Egyptian population to turn fundamentally against the United States. 

US influence in Egypt is key to sustaining US hegemony
Weisbrode, 11 (Kenneth Weisbrode is a diplomatic historian at the European University Institute and author of "The Atlantic Century" (Da Capo)., February 8, 2011, The U.S. and Egypt: The Limits of Hegemony, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7805/the-u-s-and-egypt-the-limits-of-hegemony)
The Obama administration's air of …………… of Egypt seem to grasp that better than do any of their past, or would be future, patrons.

That’s key to prevent global instability and nuclear wars
Kagan 07,  Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review (http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)]
Islam is not a nation, but many Muslims express ………. the future, no one should imagine that a reduction of American power or a retraction of American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path.

And US influence in Egypt is key to checking Iran
Clemons, 11 (Steven Clemens, founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, Publisher of the popular political blog The Washington Note, Mr. Clemons is a long-term policy practitioner and entrepreneur in Washington, D.C. He has served as Executive Vice President of the Economic Strategy Institute, Senior Policy Advisor on Economic and International Affairs to Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and was the first Executive Director of the Nixon Center, “How Outcome in Egypt Could Affect the United States,” New America Foundation February 2, 2011, http://newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/how_outcome_in_egypt_could_affect_the_united_states_44092)
How will it affect the U.S. role and influence in the Middle East? The ultimate impact will depend largely on how the situation in Egypt plays out, but if there is significant political transition in Egypt, the steps Obama takes …………….. the region could be profound.

Egypt is the wild card- even a small shift in Iran-Egypt relations causes major re-alignment
Marashi and Parsi, 11 (Reza Marashi is the research director for the National Iranian American Council. Previously, he served in the U.S. State Department in the Office of Iranian Affairs, and was an analyst at the Institute for National Strategic Studies. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council. He is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States, which earned a 2008 Arthur Ross Book Award from the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Arab Spring Seen From Tehran, The Cairo Global Review, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:LRrs1q1gueIJ:www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62+http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)
As Iran jockeys for regional …………… U.S.–Israel–Saudi efforts to contain it.

That causes US-Iran war via miscalculation
Dreyfuss, 11 (Robert, investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The Nation, Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, The American Prospect, and other progressive publications. His work also appears on line at TomPaine.com. Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from Columbia University. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the Executive Intelligence Review, the flagship journal of the Lyndon LaRouche movement. His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/06/averting-a-disaster-in-the-persian-gulf.html)
Both warned that military …………. "It's unclear," he said, "how decisions are made from the top all the way down to the level of commanders in the Persian Gulf." Not only that, he said, but "the United States has no clear idea of Iran's security concerns."

The impact is extinction- outweighs on probability and magnitude
Chossudovsky, 10 (Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America’s “War on Terrorism” (2005), Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran, Part I: Global Warfare, August 1, 2010, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va)
Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. ……………………the perils of nuclear war and the extinction of life on earth, which has already started with the radioactive contamination resulting from depleted uranium. “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” 

1AC- Elections

Contention 2 is: Transition 

Shifting democracy assistance is key to prevent military takeover- key to the transition
Aziz, 11 (Sahar Aziz is an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law and a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. She serves as the President of the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association, Tom Kutsch, What's behind the Egyptian military's attacks on civil society? August 18, 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/18/whats_behind_the_egyptian_militarys_attacks_on_civil_society)
At first blush, the attacks appear to be a rerun of the tripe authoritarianism for which former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his fellow Arab dictators are famous. When one cannot address the people's legitimate grievances, it's rather expected to ……… to eliminate any viable political competition. Notwithstanding the serious flaws in American foreign aid policy as described in a 2009 audit by the USAID Office of Inspector General, which certainly need to be rectified, the United States must stay true to its values of supporting democracy tailored to the needs of a particular nation. 

Core technical assistance to civil societies is crucial to solving Egyptian instability and the economy
POMED, 11 (Project On Middle East Democracy, POMED Notes: “The Role of Civil Society in a New Egypt” On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion on the path ahead for Egypt and the role civil society can play in supporting the country’s development in its democratic transition. John Page, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution made opening remarks and introduced the following panelists: Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center; Hisham Fahmy, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt; Jackie Kameel, Managing Director of Nahdet El Mahrousa; Awais Sufi, Vice President of the International Youth Foundation; and Amira Maaty, Program Officer for Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. March 25, 2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/03/pomed-notes-the-role-of-civil-society-in-a-new-egypt.html/)
Before asking panelists ……….. undergoing a transition of their own as they shift from opposing the government to partnering with it.

Egyptian economic instability prevents global renewable energy transition
Takoko, 11 (Mere, Egypt’s Rising Sun, March 1, 2011, http://www.koha.biz/2011/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-rising-sun/)
For other investors, Egypt’s economic …………. can do little but watch on and monitor how Egypt will recover economically and hope that a smooth transition in political power will occur that maintains a favourable environment for renewable energy development. 

Alternative energy solves runaway climate change and extinction
Bianca Jagger, chair of the World Future council, testimony before the House Select Energy Independence and Global Warming Committee March 6, ‘8, CQ Congressional Testimony “Renewable Energy” l/n congressional
"If we go beyond the point …………… economy."

Egyptian Instability causes global nuclear war
Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)
Worldwide attention has been focused for ……………, inviting armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Solvency

Core technical assistance is key- avoids backlash
Diamond, 11 (Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and director of Stanford University's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He is co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, “A Fourth Wave or a False Start, May 22, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67862/larry-diamond/a-fourth-wave-or-false-start?page=show)
The United States ………………. and Hamas outside it  the next, to show it cannot be taken for granted.

Even if SCAF backlashes- Egyptians are still accepting assistance
The Nation, 11 (Max Strasser, freelance journalist and writer in Istanbul who covers Turkey, Egypt and the Middle East, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?” 7-22, http://www.thenation.com/signup/162239?destination=article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt)
Most of these millions will go to ……………. we still need somebody to tell us what is or is not good for us  or worse, to force it on us," she said.

Even if there’s some backlash- our signaling arguments outweigh
Gedmin et al., 11 (Jeffrey Gedmin, Chief Executive Officer, The Legatum Institute SPEAKERS: Uri Dadush, Senior Associate, International Economics Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michele Dunne, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, The Atlantic Council Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, EGYPT IN TRANSITION: THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION AND THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FRIDAY, JUNE 22, 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/72211_transcript_egypttransition.pdf)
And there are some disturbing trends ………………. the future relation between the United States and whatever government emerges in Egypt? Probably. And I think this is – and also – that’s number one

U.S. Civil societies can circumvent Egyptian crackdown
Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011, http://www.iri.org/news-events-press-center/news/washington-post-features-iris-work-egypt)
A history of influence American …………… tours for them to the United States. Participants were invariably punished for participating, pilloried in the media through campaigns organized by the government.

No anti-US backlash- recent demonstrations prove
Gubash, 9-9 (Charlene Gubash, NBC News Producer, In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore, http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/09/7691072-in-tahrir-square-us-not-as-hated-anymore)
In Tahrir Square…………want to build ourselves.” Others believe the United States should do even more to help Arab people gain freedom from dictators.

No stigma against U.S. aid
Kagan and Gerecht, 11 (Foreign Policy Initiative, FPI Director, Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a former director of the Project for the New American Century's Middle East Initiative and a former resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute,  “Arabs seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the US,” 3-10-11, http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/arabs-seek-democracy-regardless-how-they-feel-about-us-says-fpi-director-robert-kagan)
Let's start with the fact that …………… out the Arab peoples seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the United States.

Plan

The United States Federal Government should increase core technical assistance to civil society for Egypt

Our  methodology is good – Evidence-based policy making is necessary to prevent political gridlock
Anderson 3 (Lisa, Dean of the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, former President of the Middle East Studies Association, “Scholarship, Policy, Debate and Conflict:Why We Study the Middle East and Why It Matters, http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/871, AD: 8/28/11) jl 

In the wars on terror and on Iraq, ………..bout infringements of the rights upon which we and our colleagues rely as scholars and as citizens, whether in the United States or in the Middle East itself. If we abdicate our responsibilities as citizens, we undermine our standing as scholars and teachers. We must not only advocate for our rights but we must also exercise them.

Consequentialism is key to middle east policy
Telhami 4 (Shibley, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of Maryland; Nonresident Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institution, “Liberty and Power: A Dialogue on Religion and U.S. Foreign Policy,”  http://pewforum.org/events/?EventID=61, AD: 8/28/11) jl 

And here I would put on the table the differentiation - to use Max Weber's terminology - between the ethics of conviction and the ethics of responsibility. There's a big difference between the two. A person can be moved by the ethics of conviction; society must judge by the ethics of responsibility. There are many ways of unpacking that differentiation, but one way to unpack it certainly pertains to what we seek to do and our concern for the ………….. have not been deemed as ethical from the point of view of international standards.

No epistemology is perfect, but we can use empiricism and logic to reason through our actions.  Prioritizing the origin of our knowledge is useless and results in political paralysis.
Loewy – 91 Erich, associate professor of medicine at the University of Illinois and associate professor of humanities, “Suffering and the Beneficent Community: Beyond Libertarianism,” p. 17-21
All of our judgments and ……………… in which realities (both empirical and ethical) are neither rigidly fixed nor entirely subject to ad hoc interpretation. Ethical certitude, no more than certitude about anything else, is not possible in the human condition. The “ut in pluribus,” the generally and for the most part true of which St. Thomas Aquinas speaks, is the best we can hope for in science as well as in ethics. Since, however, we must inevitably act (nonaction being as much action as action itself), we must be prepared to act on less than complete certitude. Truth cannot, in a Cartesian sense, be expected to be apodictic; rather truth (whether it is scientific or moral truth) is to be worked with, shaped and developed as we experience, learn, and grow.

KYAdv 1

US-Egypt relations are key to US access Suez Canal

Satloff, 11 (RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT AND LEBANON: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY AND ALLIES IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 9 AND 10, 2011 Serial No. 112–32, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing_notice.asp?id=1208)

Egypt obviously will lose … be possible is difficult to imagine.

Lack of US access to the Suez Canal cuts of US naval power projection and major Sumed oil pipeline- forces US military intervention further destabilizing it

Rozoff, 11 (Rick, Graduate in European literature. Investigative journalist ; Manager of the organization , “Egypt: Will U.S. And NATO Launch Second Suez Intervention?”, February 3, 2011, )

On February 1 General James Mattis, commander … intervention loom over the nation.

EU independence is key to Russian economic reforms

Baran 2007 (Zeyno Baran is a senior fellow and director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. “EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian Leverage” The Washington Quarterly • 30:4 pp. 131–144.http://www.twq.com/07autumn/docs/07autumn_baran.pdf)

It is absolutely vital that the EU diversify …with the subject of such contracts.”7

Solves Russian econ.

Daily Telegraph (LONDON) 2/4/08  February 4, 2008 Monday

MOSCOW is the most expensive city … thought they walked on water. The sequel was not happy.

Russian economic collapse causes nuclear war

Filger 9 – Sheldon Filger, columnist and founder of GlobalEconomicCrisis.com, May 10, 2009, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction,” online: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-faces-dis_b_201147.html

In Russia, historically, economic health and … Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.

Naval power projection is key to prevent global escalatory nuclear wars

Kagan 07,  Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review (http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)]

It is easy but also dangerous to underestimate the …American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path.

Relations are key to stabilizing at Iraq and Somalia

Taleb 9 (Hassan Abou Taleb vice president of the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “Bilateral and Regional Issues in U.S.–Egyptian Relations” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. June 2009. )

At this historic juncture, there are five main …importance and direct impact on U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East.

Horn of Africa escalate to nuclear war

Glick 7
 (Caroline Glick. “Condi's African holiday” Jerusalem Post. Dec 11, 2007. )

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous … regional actors and global powers.

Iraq escalates to nuclear war and pulls-in major powers

Corsi 07

[Jerome R. Corsi, staff writer for World Net Daily and has a PhD in political science from Harvard University, "War with Iran is imminent,” 1/8/2007, http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669]

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq, …, much as World Wars I and II began.

Increasing education reform is crucial to sustainable relations- avoids backlash

Gosendale, 11 (Mr. Gosende is a retired Foreign Service Officer who now serves as the John W. Ryan Fellow in International Education at the University at Albany.  He was President Clinton’s Special Envoy for Somalia in 1992, January 28, 2011 “US-Egypt: Use Power Softly and Forget the Stick” )

Nobody is watching these events more closely than … Tunis we must take careful next steps.

Adv- 2

Civic education is key to Egyptian universities

AUC, 10 (American University in Cairo, Egypt, Institute Profile, www.tufts.edu/talloiresnetwork/downloads/AmericanUniversityinCairo.doc)

The key challenge faced by the …higher education may change in the near future.

That’s key to Egypt renewable energy production

ENCC, 10 (Egyptian National Competitiveness Council, “Green Egypt: A Vision for Tomorrow,” The 7^th Egyptian Competitiveness Report, May 2010)

Universities are need to train the engineers … industry and conservation for historic, cultural and natural assets.

Egypt is key- exports renewable energy globally- developing countries

ENCC, 10 (Egyptian National Competitiveness Council, “Green Egypt: A Vision for Tomorrow,” The 7^th Egyptian Competitiveness Report, May 2010)

Many countries mainstreamed renewable … arrangements could allow Egypt to ramp up its wind and solar production.

Scientific consensus proves warming’s real- causes extinction

Henderson 2k6  [Bill Henderson, environmental scientist, “Runaway Global Warming Denial.”  Countercurrents.org  August 19, 2006.  http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-

henderson190806.htm.]

The scientific debate about human induced …or very near extinction of humanity.

Adv 3

Democratic education reform spills over to all forms of Egypt’s education system

Ginsburg et al, 10 (Mark Ginsburg, senior technical advisor at the Academy for Educational Development (USA) and coeditor of the Comparative Education Review. Nagwa Megahed is an Assistant Professor at Ain Shams University in Egypt. Mohammed Elmeski is a Ph.D. student in the Comparative and International Education Program, Department of Educational Policy and Administration, College of Human Development and Education, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities. Nobuyuki Tanaka is a Ph.D. candidate at Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University (Japan) and a consultant for the World Bank (USA), “Reforming Educational Governance and Management in Egypt: National and International Actors and Dynamics,” Volume 18 Number 5 March 1st, 2010 ISSN 1068–2341, education policy analysis archives A peer-reviewed, independent, open access, multilingual journal, http://epaa.asu.edu/epaa/v18n5)

According to the United Nations … administration of the education system” (p. 57).

Education reform is crucial to solve for the root cause of protests and instability in Egypt

Zewail, 10 (Ahmed Zewail is the Linus Pauling Chair Professor of Chemistry and professor of physics at the California Institute of Technology. He also serves on President Barack Obama’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, and is the U.S. Science Envoy to the Middle East, Reflections on Arab Renaissance, This article is based on addresses given by the author at the Dubai Press Club and at the Cairo Opera House in 2010.

For the Arab world, good education … museum constituted a beacon of knowledge.

Egyptian Instability causes global nuclear war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, , )

Worldwide attention has been focused for …nothing we have ever seen.

U.S. education assistance is crucial to solve radicalism, economic growth and Egyptian regional influence- U.S. leadership key to secure funding, admission and quality education

El-Baz, 07 (Dr. Farouk El-Baz, member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, is Director of the Boston University Center for Remote Sensing and a veteran of the golden age of the Apollo space program. Besides a spacecraft on Star Trek named after him, award-winning El-Baz also served as Science Advisor to Anwar Sadat, late President of Egypt. After decades of training top-notch astronauts, El-Baz explains in this eloquent essay the critical need for educational reform in Arab countries, “Reform in Arab Countries: The Role of Education” , February 12, 2007)

Egypt used to play a leading role …or the quality of the offered curricula.

Egyptian radicalization causes WMD conflicts
Cohen 7 (Ariel Cohen Senior Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation 7 “Knowing the Enemy” Hoover Institution at Stanford policy review 145. October)
 Islamist extremist/jihadi organizations… worth analyzing in greater detail.

Extinction
 Russell, 9 (James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring)
 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers//, #26, )
 Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined … of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Solvency- 1AC

No backlash- Egyptian government supports democratic education reform

Kohstall, 07 (Florian, Florian Kohstall is Research Fellow at the Centre d'Etudes et de Documentation Economiques, Juridiques et Sociales (CEDEJ) in Cairo, Educational Reform's Selective Benefits in Egypt, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=21000)

In Morocco and Egypt, commissions of experts … from expanding access towards improving quality.

Backlash Is only to independent political party support

Allam, 11 (Aug. 17, 2011 New U.S. ambassador faces cooler relations in Egypt Hannah Allam | McClatchy Newspapers, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/08/17/v-print/121070/egypt-gives-new-us-ambassador.html)

A Gallup poll released earlier this year found that … a respect for Egyptian law."

No alternate causalities to relations- and the plan is key

Gubash, 9-9 (Charlene Gubash, NBC News Producer, In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore, http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/09/7691072-in-tahrir-square-us-not-as-hated-anymore)

In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore… people gain freedom from dictators.

Relations are not irreparable- the plans democratic signal is key to build sustainable relations

Heydemann, 11 (Senior Vice President, Grant Program and Special Adviser, Egypt's Transition, February 14, 2011, Muslim World Initiative, )

America's relationship with Egypt will … country toward a democratic political order.

Plan-

The United States federal government should substantially increase decentralization and civic education for Egypt

***1AC – Status Quo***

Contention One is Civil War

The US and Turkey are closely coordinating their approach to pressure Syria – this results in sanctions – Israel flotilla incident won’t affect cooperation

Today’s Zaman 9-25-11 (“Strained ties with Israel fail to hijack agenda of Erdoğan-Obama meeting,” )

Some analysts did not find it surprising AND  the need to build up pressure on Assad.

***1AC – Civil War***

Syria is on the brink of civil war – failure to reign in Assad will ignite domestic strife and inspire calls for military assistance

Tisdall 9-26-11 – assistant editor of the Guardian and a foreign affairs columnist (Simon, “Battle for Syria's future enters a new, more dangerous phase,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/26/battle-syria-future-bashar-assad?newsfeed=true)

Six months after the Syrian uprising began it seems   …It seems the war for Syria's future is about to begin in earnest.

Domestic constraints will force Obama to intervene – leads to war throughout the region

Dreyfuss 8-31-11 – contributing editor for The Nation, profiled as a leading investigative journalist by the Columbia Journalism Review (Robert, “Model Behavior? Libyan Ideas in Syria,” http://www.npr.org/2011/08/31/140084052/the-nation-model-behavior-libyan-ideas-in-syria)

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that ……. cannot allow Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred.

Syria will respond with bioweapons

Al 01 [Guray, 1^st Lt. Turkish Army, Dec, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA401656&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

In an armed confrontation, …. and Iskenderun would be particularly vulnerable.

Spreads weaponized smallpox

Bellamy-Dekker 07

[Jill Bellamy-Dekker, director - Public Health Preparedness - European Homeland Security Association, 3/5/2007, Syria Ready with Bio-Terror If U.S. Hits Iran, World Net Daily, Jerome R. Corsi, p. http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54542]

Bellamy-Decker also told WND the North Koreans were … latent potential and outbreak capability."

Causes extinction

Singer 01

[Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001, Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?, p. http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm]

There are, however, two technologies … be in question when and if this is achieved.

War in the Persian Gulf causes oil shocks

Spindle and Coker 11

[Bill Spindle and Margaret Coker, “The New Cold War”, The Wall Street Journal, 4-16-2011, ]

The intensified wrangling … is a looming nuclear arms race in the region.

That causes great power war and collapses renewable markets in favor of coal production

King 2008 – Researcher at the Center for New American Security (Neil Jr., “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf)

Many commentators in the United States … steps and avoid the rash ones.

That leads to irreversible warming – causes positive feedbacks, kills keystone species, leads to extinction

Hansen 2009 (“Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal)

A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him to place a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in Britain. I have asked the same of Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, Kevin Rudd and other leaders. The reason is this - coal is the single greatest threat to …carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.

Russia will retaliate to US intervention – escalates globally – causes extinction

Kah 03 [Gary H. Kah, former Europe and Middle East trade specialist - government of Indiana, April, 2003, War With Iraq: The Aftermath, p. http://www.crossroad.to/articles2/2003/kah/war-aftermath.htm]

North Korea has nuclear weapons - and … any price would be the driving force.

***1AC – US-Turkey Cooperation***

Contention Two is Turkey

Turkish provocations will cause Israeli war with Turkey and Egypt over Gaza

Cagaptay 9-8-11 – Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is the co-author, with Scott Carpenter, of Regenerating the U.S.-Turkey Partnership (“Could Israel and Turkey go to war?” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/cagaptay-israel-turkey-conflict/)

The Arab Spring and recent dramatic deterioration … could well find themselves in conflict.

War escalates to nuclear and bioweapon use – eviscerates the Middle East

Ahmad 2K – Research Scholar in the Centre for International Politics, Organisation & Disarmament (Omair, “The Israeli Nuclear Option,” Matrix E-Journal of International Relations (Jawaharlal Nehru University of India), Volume 1 Issue 1, http://jnu-matrix.tripod.com/vol1.htm)

So the Israelis have got arms and they … not be possible to deal with them.

US-Iran dialogue is key to prevent miscalculation which escalates to US-Iran war

Dreyfuss, 11 (Robert, whose work has appeared in , , , , and other publications. His work also appears on line at . Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from . In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the , the flagship journal of the . His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011, )

Both warned that military miscalculations between naval …similar agreement between Iran and the United States.

Iranian adventurism sparks nuclear war

Ben-Meir 07

(Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)

That Iran stands today able …of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Sustainability of US presence in East-Asia is in jeopardy – emboldens North Korean provocations and encourages Chinese balancing – offshore balancing in the Middle East is key to solve

Colby 8-10-2011 – research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses and a consultant to a number of government and military components (Elbridge, “Why US Needs its Liberal Empire,” http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/)

This is very much to the good. At times over the past …, and less emphasis on the Middle East.   

Unchecked North Korea will cause extinction

Hayes and Green 2009 – Professor of International Relations at RMIT University; Dean of and Professor in the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development at Victoria University (Peter Hayes & Michael Hamel-Green, “Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia,” Asian Pacific Journal)

The international community is increasingly aware that cooperative diplomacy is the most productive way to tackle the multiple, interconnected global challenges facing humanity, not least of which is the increasing proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Korea and Northeast Asia …consideration from the international community.

Chinese expansion leads to US miscalculation – escalates to nuclear war

Ikenberry and Mastanduno 2003 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of Government and Director of the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College (G. John and Michael, International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific, Columbia University Press, page 336)

Given the presence of nuclear weapons, Chinese … such moves, the risk of escalation would be significant.

***1AC – Solvency***

Contention Four is Solvency

The Syrian National Council in Turkey is the primary opposition group – it requires capacity for mass coordination in order to be successful

Head 9-15-11 – BBC correspondent in Turkey since 2009, former South East Asia correspondent for more than 13 years “Syrian opposition unveils council names,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14929813)

Members of Syria's opposition groups have chosen … and reports by rights groups.

That means we solve Civil War

U.S. democracy assistance to build the opposition is crucial to a short, less violent transition

Doran and Shaikh 11 [Michael S. Doran, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, and Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Getting Serious in Syria”, The American Interest Online, 7-29-2011, ]

The question for Washington, then, … crackdown and allowing a genuine process of transition to begin.

We solve US-Turkey coop

Turkey is facing a credibility gap now – reversing it solves provocations with Israel, and mediates tensions between Iran and the US

Al-Husseini 9-24-11 – prominent Lebanese writer (Huda, “Will Turkey succeed where Iran failed?” http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/09/24/168477.html)

Yet, this amended policy did not succeed with … early-warning radar system as a defense of Israel.

US-Turkey relations are at a crossroads – cooperation over Syria is key to restructure the relationship and enable the US to transition to offshore balancing in the Middle East

Mead 8-18-11 – James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College and Editor-at-Large of The American Interest magazine and former Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (Walter Russell, “Turkey Could Help Restore The Balance Between The U.S. And The Middle East,” )

To face east for Turkey is to face a sea of troubles … and renegotiate their sixty year old partnership in a changing region.

Democracy assistance is key – stabilizes Turkish foreign policy by establishing coalitions with Turkish civil society groups

Kirisci et al. 2010 – fellows at the Transatlantic Academy (Kemal Kirisci, Nathalie Tocci, and Joshua Walker, “A Neighborhood Rediscovered: Turkey’s transatlantic value in the Middle East,” http://www.gmfus.org/galleries/ct_publication_attachments/TransatlanticAcademyKirsiciTocciWalkerBFPaperTurkeyNeighborhood.pdf;jsessionid=a4SdniMgQUI7AeYyEL)

Turkey no longer represents a Cold War …democracy assistance in Turkey’s neighborhood.

We solve SNC credibility

Direct assistance to Syrian protestors is impossible – assistance to the SNC is a key signal for US support

Seelye 9-6-11 – Vice President of the Middle East Institute (“Foreign Policy: Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?,” http://www.npr.org/2011/09/06/140210238/foreign-policy-why-cant-the-syrian-opposition-get-along)

The TNC was created just 12 days after … crème of Syria's traditional opposition.

Material assistance is key to SNC success – leads to stable military transition, solves Iranian influence, and ensures long term US influence

Weiss 2011 – director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democratic geopolitics (Michael, “Meet the Syrian Opposition,” http://www.slate.com/id/2296323/pagenum/all/#p2)

There are plenty of geopolitical justifications … friends who might someday become allies.

Decisive US action is key to reciprocate support for the US post-transition

Avni 9-16-11 – New York Post op-ed contributor, before the Post, he was the New York Sun’s United Nations correspondent and world affairs columnist (Ben, “Iran-Turkey: dueling demagogues,” http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/iran_turkey_dueling_demagogues_OLHg4yfWyUzKz93427ZkxN)

Yet Erdogan after some tough … at a table where everyone else antes up with real resources.

The SNC is the crux of the opposition – internal competition between groups is unlikely because the SNC doesn’t seek to control the transition – plan gives it key legitimacy

Daily Times 9-21-11 (“Syria opposition gets major boost with council creation,” http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011%5C09%5C21%5Cstory_21-9-2011_pg4_7)

After several false starts, the Syrian opposition … council’s support from foreign governments.

Unifying the opposition will constrain the Free Syrian Army – only way to ensure peace

Seelye 9-1-11 – Vice President of the Middle East Institute (Kate, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full)

Just across Syria's border in Antakya, … uprising remains little more than a distant hope.

Plan

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its material assistance for the Syrian National Council.

1AC- US Leadership 

Contention One is U.S. leadership-

The US needs a substantial increase in civil society to restore regional influence in Egypt and the region
Schenker, 11 (David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011,
As with the revolution, Egyptians will be responsible for ………… an already wary Egyptian population to turn fundamentally against the United States. 

US influence in Egypt is key to sustaining US hegemony
Weisbrode, 11 (Kenneth Weisbrode is a diplomatic historian at the European University Institute and author of "The Atlantic Century" (Da Capo)., February 8, 2011, The U.S. and Egypt: The Limits of Hegemony,
The Obama administration's air of ambivalence, ……… that better than do any of their past, or would be future, patrons.

That’s key to prevent global instability and nuclear wars
Kagan 07,  Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review (]
Islam is not a nation, but many Muslims express …….. should imagine that a reduction of American power or a retraction of American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path.

And US influence in Egypt is key to checking Iran
Clemons, 11 (Steven Clemens, founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, Publisher of the popular political blog The Washington Note, Mr. Clemons is a long-term policy practitioner and entrepreneur in Washington, D.C. He has served as Executive Vice President of the Economic Strategy Institute, Senior Policy Advisor on Economic and International Affairs to Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and was the first Executive Director of the Nixon Center, “How Outcome in Egypt Could Affect the United States,” New America Foundation February 2, 2011,
How will it affect the U.S. role and influence in the Middle East? The ultimate impact will depend largely on how the situation in Egypt plays out, but if there is significant political transition in Egypt, the steps Obama takes now behind the ……… impact on the region could be profound.

Egypt is the wild card- even a small shift in Iran-Egypt relations causes major re-alignment
Marashi and Parsi, 11 (Reza Marashi is the research director for the National Iranian American Council. Previously, he served in the U.S. State Department in the Office of Iranian Affairs, and was an analyst at the Institute for National Strategic Studies. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council. He is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States, which earned a 2008 Arthur Ross Book Award from the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Arab Spring Seen From Tehran, The Cairo Global Review,
As Iran jockeys for regional preeminence, ……….. full influence in the region. As Egypt recalibrates, Iran revels in the fact that yet another country in the region is unlikely to conform to U.S.–Israel–Saudi efforts to contain it.

That causes US-Iran war via miscalculation
Dreyfuss, 11 (Robert, investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The Nation, Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, The American Prospect, and other progressive publications. His work also appears on line at TomPaine.com. Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from Columbia University. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the Executive Intelligence Review, the flagship journal of the Lyndon LaRouche movement. His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011,
Both warned that military miscalculations between naval ………. the top all the way down to the level of commanders in the Persian Gulf." Not only that, he said, but "the United States has no clear idea of Iran's security concerns."

The impact is extinction- outweighs on probability and magnitude
Chossudovsky, 10 (Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America’s “War on Terrorism” (2005), Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran, Part I: Global Warfare, August 1, 2010,
Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War preparations to …….. resulting from depleted uranium. “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” 

1AC- Elections

Contention 2 is: Elections 

The plans key to a liberal win upcoming elections- absent this the Muslim Brotherhood will pursue anti-US policies
Trager, 11 (Eric Trager, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood,”
The political transition following their revolt, however, has dulled ……... They are political free agents, and given the religiosity of Egyptian society, the Brotherhood can easily win their allegiance if the United States fails to act quickly to support the alternative  the liberal vision for which the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

That blocks Mussa from winning the Presidential elections
Saikal 11, (Amin Saikal is professor of Political Science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, The growing power of Egypt's Islamists,
The pro-democracy Egyptian revolution is heading towards producing results contrary to the expectation of those who spearheaded it.
The Islamist parties now stand a good chance to …….. The result may well be Muslim Brotherhood dominance in Egyptian politics.

Moussa victory is critical to Egyptian regional influence- that prevents conflict in Sudan, Libya and Gaza, and internal instability- US-Egypt relations are vital
Schenker, 11 (David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011,
With the exception of a few notably stressful ………. help Cairo manage change while maintaining stability. The fate of more than 80 million Egyptians and quite possibly the region as a whole depends on it. 

Egyptian Instability causes global nuclear war
Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, ,
Worldwide attention has been focused for many days on events in Cairo, the central question being: which way will Egypt go, real democracy or some other form of autocratic rule? Of course the widely held fear is Islamic radicals will maneuver to fill whatever vacuum is created by ………. At that intersection, oil becomes an ultimate weapon, as foreshadowed during the embargo in 1973, inviting armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

North-South Sudan conflict collapses Chinese economy
ICFI, 11 (International Committee of the Fourth International, Susan Garth, Partition of Sudan prepares way for further conflicts, July 18, 2011,
Potentially, the conflicts that are now developing in …. Sudan over the use of the present pipeline raises the possibility of major disruption to the Chinese and the world economy.

Chinese economic collapse China-Russia nuclear war
Alexander Sharavin, Director of the Institute of Military and Political Analysis, WHAT THE PAPERS SAY, October 3, 2001, p. online
China's economy is among the fastest-growing …… the Chinese are killed, our country would be absolutely unprotected against the "Chechen" and the "Balkan" variants both, and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter. 

Libyan war sparks World War III
Lendman, 7-6-11
[Stephen, Libya - Flashpoint for World Conflict, ]
  On July 3, Peter Dale Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners what he fears most. He repeated it in a July 4 email, citing a Paul Joseph Watson Infowars.com article, accessed through the following link:

Using information from DEBKAfile, a …….. wars will proliferate until America destroys planet earth to liberate it in a mushroom-shaped cloud. It's possible given alarming reports like Watson's July 4 Infowars one linked above.
Slatts Note – Peter Scott Dale is a former Canadian diplomat

Israel-Hamas War causes global nuclear war
Nawash, 09 (Kamal Nawash, Kamal Nawash began life as a Palestinian refugee. One of six children born in Bethlehem, Kamal was nine years old when his family arrived in New Orleans in 1979, Upon completing his education in 1997, he became the Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), Today Kamal is a successful attorney with a Washington D.C. law firm. He has with degrees in business and law and international legal studies, “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War” January 11, ……… be solved after many wars failed to end the conflict? The answer is YES but time is running out.

Solvency

Core technical assistance is key- avoids backlash
Diamond, 11 (Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and director of Stanford University's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He is co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, “A Fourth Wave or a False Start, May 22, 2011,
The United States should help Arab democrats get ………… next, to show it cannot be taken for granted.

Even if SCAF backlashes- Egyptians are still accepting assistance
The Nation, 11 (Max Strasser, freelance journalist and writer in Istanbul who covers Turkey, Egypt and the Middle East, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?” 7-22,
Most of these millions will go to American …….. to tell us what is or is not good for us  or worse, to force it on us," she said.

Shifting democracy assistance is key to prevent military takeover- key to the transition
Aziz, 11 (Sahar Aziz is an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law and a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. She serves as the President of the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association, Tom Kutsch, What's behind the Egyptian military's attacks on civil society? August 18, 2011,
At first blush, the attacks appear to be a rerun of the tripe ……. of supporting democracy tailored to the needs of a particular nation. 

Even if there’s some backlash- our signaling arguments outweigh
Gedmin et al., 11 (Jeffrey Gedmin, Chief Executive Officer, The Legatum Institute SPEAKERS: Uri Dadush, Senior Associate, International Economics Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michele Dunne, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, The Atlantic Council Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, EGYPT IN TRANSITION: THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION AND THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FRIDAY, JUNE 22, 2011,
And there are some disturbing trends here, and I – you know, ……… the United States and whatever government emerges in Egypt? Probably. And I think this is – and also – that’s number one

Core technical assistance to civil societies is crucial to solving Egyptian instability and the economy
POMED, 11 (Project On Middle East Democracy, POMED Notes: “The Role of Civil Society in a New Egypt” On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion on the path ahead for Egypt and the role civil society can play in supporting the country’s development in its democratic transition. John Page, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution made opening remarks and introduced the following panelists: Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center; Hisham Fahmy, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt; Jackie Kameel, Managing Director of Nahdet El Mahrousa; Awais Sufi, Vice President of the International Youth Foundation; and Amira Maaty, Program Officer for Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. March 25, 2011,
Before asking panelists to remark on the situation in ……… civil society had acted as the opposition to the government and as such these groups are undergoing a transition of their own as they shift from opposing the government to partnering with it.

U.S. Civil societies can circumvent Egyptian crackdown
Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011,
A history of influence American organizations, among them the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, have worked here for years, despite the determined opposition of the Egyptian government. Both say the relationships they have built will make civic groups receptive to their offers of political expertise, such as training parties on honing a message and observers on monitoring elections. Neither organization has ever been granted official permission to operate here, even though they have been asking the Egyptian government since 2006. Feeling stymied, IRI circumvented the barrier over the past few years by taking aspiring politicians and activists, now numbering 1,000, to training seminars in nearby countries or organizing tours for them to the United States. Participants were invariably punished for participating, pilloried in the media through campaigns organized by the government.

No anti-US backlash- recent demonstrations prove
Gubash, 9-9 (Charlene Gubash, NBC News Producer, In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore,
In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore.  …………. the United States should do even more to help Arab people gain freedom from dictators.

No stigma against U.S. aid
Kagan and Gerecht, 11 (Foreign Policy Initiative, FPI Director, Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a former director of the Project for the New American Century's Middle East Initiative and a former resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute,  “Arabs seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the US,” 3-10-11,
Let's start with the fact that Egyptians do not fear ………. It turns out the Arab peoples seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the United States.

Plan

The United States Federal Government should increase core technical assistance to civil society for Egypt

1AC- Muslim Brotherhood

Muslim Brotherhood influence is inevitable- but plan is key to prevent a monopolization of the Parliament- to prevent policies inimical to the US

Trager, 11 (Eric Trager, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68211/eric-trager/the-unbreakable-muslim-brotherhood)

The political transition following their revolt………. Muslim Brotherhood and the former NDP, particularly in rural Egypt.

Even a pragmatic Muslim Brotherhood would cut military aid to the U.S

Byman, 11 (Daniel Byman is a professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University and the research director of the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. His book “A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism” will be released in April, Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power? http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/02/04/egypt-2012-what-if-the-muslim-brotherhood-comes-to-power/)

Would a Muslim Brotherhood …….. it would automatically become pragmatic should it take power. The U.S. must prepare for a Brotherhood-run Egypt whose policies would often be hostile, anticipating potential crises and working constantly to gentle the movement.

That devastates the defense and aerospace industry

Fitzgerald, 11 (Keith, Keith Fitz-Gerald is the Investment Director of the Money Map Press, the Money Map Report, and Editor of the New China Trader,“What Unrest in the Middle East Means for US Defense Stocks,” February 17, http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/defense-industry-defense-sector-lockheed-martin/2/17/2011/id/32871?page=full)

Here are some companies ….. fit enough to keep shareholders happy.

US military is crucial to global stability and preventing multiple nuclear wars

Kagan, 11 (The Price of Power The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18 • By ROBERT KAGAN Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.)

Today the international situation is …… during the time frames exam- ined in this report.

Un-moderated Muslim brotherhood causes nuclear war

Rose 11 (Taylor, International Relations and Strategic Intelligence – Liberty University, “The Islamic Revolution Part II”, Youth for Western Civilization, 2-1,

The riots in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Yemen and possibly Saudi Arabia and Jordan should not be mistaken as “pro-democracy” movements. These riots are orchestrated by the Muslim Brotherhood, ………. militaries and a powerful spirit of momentum and jihad to attack Israel, then Europe and United States.

1AC- Iran

U.S. support for civil society is vital to restoring regional influence- Clinton reprogrammed aid already but it was insufficient

Schenker, 11 (David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011, )

As with the revolution, Egyptians will ……., weaken a presumably fragile new government, and cause an already wary Egyptian population to turn fundamentally against the United States.

Perception of America’s vigilance regarding Egypt is Iran’s first calculation

Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies and the author of The Pasdaran: Inside Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, October 17, 2011. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/iran-took-chance-in-changing-tide/story-e6frg6ux-1226167954017

There are good reasons …….. by suggesting the rogue theory of responsibility, indicates Iran's reading of America's weakness may be spot on.

American democratic ties to the Arab spring states box out Iran and maintain Israeli deterrence- avoids conflict

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

America’s interest in preventing ……. Iran, and demonstrate that commitment in practice.

Egypt is the wild card- even a small shift in Iran-Egypt relations causes major re-alignment

Marashi and Parsi, 11 (Reza Marashi is the research director for the National Iranian American Council. Previously, he served in the U.S. State Department in the Office of Iranian Affairs, and was an analyst at the Institute for National Strategic Studies. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council. He is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States, which earned a 2008 Arthur Ross Book Award from the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Arab Spring Seen From Tehran, The Cairo Global Review, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:LRrs1q1gueIJ:www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62+http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

As Iran jockeys for regional preeminence………. instability prevents it from exercising its full influence in the region. As Egypt recalibrates, Iran revels in the fact that yet another country in the region is unlikely to conform to U.S.–Israel–Saudi efforts to contain it.

Iranian regional influence is increasing dramatically- Egypt is key to reverse that trend

Santini and Alessandri, 11 (Ruth Hanau Santini and Emiliano Alessandri, Ruth Hanau Santini is a Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE). Her areas of expertise are European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics. Emiliano Alessandri is Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund in D.C. Previously, Dr. Alessandri was a Visiting Fellow at CUSE. He works on the Mediterranean, Turkish, and wider-Atlantic security issues. “Iran and Turkey After Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0418_iran_turkey_alessandri_santini/0418_iran_turkey_alessandri_santini.pdf)

At present, the balance of ………. respects the separation of religion in the public and private spheres—would serve as a powerful alternative to the political model Iran has long presented to the Middle East.

The impact is extinction

Chossudovsky, 10 (Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America’s “War on Terrorism” (2005), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran, Part I: Global Warfare,” August 1, 2010, )

Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads……. Western public opinion. We call upon people across the land, in America, Western Europe, Israel, Turkey and around the world to rise up against this military project, against their governments which are supportive of military action against Iran, against the media which serves to camouflage the devastating implications of a war against Iran. The military agenda support a profit driven destructive global economic system which impoverishes large sectors of the world population. This war is sheer madness. World War III is terminal. Albert Einstein understood the perils of nuclear war and the extinction of life on earth, which has already started with the radioactive contamination resulting from depleted uranium. “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Naval Miscalculation ensures high risk of escalation

Dreyfuss, 11 (Robert, whose work has appeared in , , , , and other publications. His work also appears on line at . Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from . In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the , the flagship journal of the . His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011, )

Both warned that military … to strategic ignorance" about Iranian command-and-control policies. "It's unclear," he said, "how decisions are made from the top all the way down to the level of commanders in the Persian Gulf." Not only that, he said, but "the United States has no clear idea of Iran's security concerns."

Plan

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase civil society assistance to political NGOs for Egypt

Solvency

U.S. Civil societies can circumvent Egyptian crackdown

Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011, )

A history of influence ……. or organizing tours for them to the United States. Participants were invariably punished for participating, pilloried in the media through campaigns organized by the government.

No anti-US backlash

Gubash, 9-9 (Charlene Gubash, NBC News Producer, In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore, http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/09/7691072-in-tahrir-square-us-not-as-hated-anymore)

In Tahrir Square, US ……… more to help Arab people gain freedom from dictators.

Civil society leadership outweighs any alternate causalities

Fetter, 11 (Peter, Professor and graduate student at Temple University, cyberactivist involved with Iran, the Middle East, and domestic politics.  With secondary specializations in political philosophy, ethics, and cultural anthropology, “Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy,” In order to acquire contact information I had to email/register the anonymous source to get their information, march 11, 2011, )

America’s recent failures ……….. don’t start wars unless there’s a broad consensus about an immanent threat because it’s the people who decide policy and who risk death in combat because they are the same people, and because of the power of citizen diplomacy and international friendship.

No stigma against U.S. aid

Kagan and Gerecht, 11 (Foreign Policy Initiative, FPI Director, Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at the . He is a former director of the 's Middle East Initiative and a former resident fellow at the ,  “Arabs seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the US,” 3-10-11, )

Let's start with the fact that ……. by the Iraq War. It turns out the Arab peoples seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the United States.

Even if SCAF backlashes- Egyptians are still accepting assistance

The Nation, 11 (Max Strasser, freelance journalist and writer in Istanbul who covers Turkey, Egypt and the Middle East, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?” 7-22, )

Most of these millions ... "I am not sure at this stage we still need somebody to tell us what is or is not good for us -- or worse, to force it on us," she said.

Contention One: Elections

Funding for unregistered NGOs are key to building confidence for a credible elections process
Schenker, 11 (David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf)
If the liberal opposition … terms for a country of 83 million people.

The perception of credible elections are crucial for Egyptian instability and economic investment
Lieberman, 11 (Lieberman Delivers Remarks on Democratic Transition in Egypt, July 22, 2011, https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Lieberman_Prepared_Remarks.pdf)
To take one example: … and the region more broadly. 

Even if the elections aren’t perfect- the perception of progress from civil society is key
IFES, 11 (The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) is the world’s leading election assistance and democracy promotion NGO. IFES promotes democratic stability by providing technical assistance and applying field-based research to the electoral cycle worldwide to enhance citizen participation and strengthen civil societies, governance and transparency. We bring the requisite knowledge and tools to meet a full spectrum of electoral challenges, whether in emerging, transitional, or consolidating democracies; in the case of unanticipated transfers of political power; failed states; active conflict zones, and; post-disaster settings. Since our founding in 1987, we have worked in 133 countries, 26 April 2011, http://www.ifes.org/Content/Publications/White-Papers/2011/~/media/Files/Publications/White%20PaperReport/2011/2011_egypt_briefing_paper_II.pdf)
Although it is unrealistic to expect … path of meaningful political reform.

Elections are the key determining factor for the transition and stability
Washington Post, 11 (Leila Fadel, In Egypt, few signs of preparation for coming vote, The Washington Post, http://www.iri.org/news-events-press-center/news/washington-post-cites-iris-egypt-poll)
Egypt’s first post-revolution parliamentary elections are due to take place in three months. But a near-total lack of preparation is prompting … there with it,” he said

Egyptian Instability causes global nuclear war
Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war)
Worldwide attention has been focused … armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

U.S. FDI in Egypt is key to U.S. competitiveness and Egyptian renewable energy
AmCham, 10 (Egypt as a Regional Hub for Value-Added Production, Services, and Export, http://www.amcham.org.eg/egypttradehub/EXECUTIVESUMMARY.asp)
AmCham Egypt has been at the … in Egypt in a range of sectors. 

Global nuclear war
Khalilzad 1995
Under the third option, the United States would …position will necessarily worsen.

Egypt is key- exports renewable energy globally- developing countries
ENCC, 10 (Egyptian National Competitiveness Council, “Green Egypt: A Vision for Tomorrow,” The 7th Egyptian Competitiveness Report, May 2010)
Many countries mainstreamed renewable … allow Egypt to ramp up its wind and solar production. 

Scientific consensus proves warming’s real- causes extinction
Henderson 2k6  [Bill Henderson, environmental scientist, “Runaway Global Warming Denial.”  Countercurrents.org  August 19, 2006.  http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-
henderson190806.htm.]
The scientific debate about human …extinction of humanity.

Contention Two: Civil Society

The US has backtracked direct support for civil society
Devex, 11 (Che de los Reyes As a senior staff writer, Che focuses on international development breaking news coverage as well as interviews and features. Prior to joining Devex, Che handled communications for local and international development NGOs and government institutions in the Philippines, In Egypt, Compromise on US Funds for NGOs Raises Fears of Government Control, http://www.devex.com/en/blogs/development-assistance-under-obama/in-egypt-compromise-on-us-funds-for-ngos-raises-fears-of-government-control-2)
After months of standing its … employees over the distribution of funds.

U.S. policy with Egyptian civil society independence is modeled globally- undermines signal
McInerney, 10 (Stephen McInerney, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has extensive experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2011” DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, April 10, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/fy11-budget-analysis-final.pdf)
On top of the 74% reduction in the … funding of independent civil society organizations. 

Strong civil society leadership is critical to Russian civil society- the plan’s key
Roth, 10 (Kenneth Roth is the executive director of Human Rights Watch, one of the world's leading international human rights organizations, which operates in more than 80 countries. Prior to joining Human Rights Watch in 1987, Roth served as a federal prosecutor in New York and for the Iran-Contra investigation in Washington. A graduate of Yale Law School and Brown University, Roth has conducted numerous human rights investigations and missions around the world. He has written extensively on a wide range of human rights abuses, devoting special attention to issues of international justice, counterterrorism, the foreign policies of the major powers, and the work of the United Nations. “Empty Promises? Obama's Hesitant Embrace of Human Rights,” February 24, 2010, http://www.hrw.org/news/2010/02/24/empty-promises)
Obama faces the challenge of …political capital to press China on human rights in the future. 

Russia specifically perceives Egyptian civil society
The Moscow News, 11 (Egypt unrest has Russia worried, 3-2 http://themoscownews.com/international/20110203/188390287.html)
 “Russia does not have any special … outside interference in its domestic affairs.

US civil society support in Russia is inevitable- but a renewed engagement with Russia is key to democratic reforms
DemDigest, 10-12 (US ‘must do more’ to promote Russian democracy, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/us-must-do-more-to-promote-russian-democracy/)
The Obama administration has pursued “… next March), even if they will be flawed, so that he can offer a frank, on-the-ground assessment.

Russian democracy is key to prevent nuclear war
Arbatov, 05 (Alexei Arbatov is a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; the director of the International Security Center of the Institute of the World Economy and International Relations, the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs, July 30, “Democracy and Nuclear Weapons” http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_5351)
An informed public and parliament can … missile launches from various directions.

Civil society leadership outweighs any alternate causalities
Fetter, 11 (Peter, Professor and graduate student at Temple University, cyberactivist involved with Iran, the Middle East, and domestic politics.  With secondary specializations in political philosophy, ethics, and cultural anthropology, “Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy,” In order to acquire contact information I had to email/register the anonymous source to get their information, march 11, 2011, http://presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/)
America’s recent failures in foreign … because of the power of citizen diplomacy and international friendship.

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase transparent technical assistance to Egyptian unregisted non governmental organizations.

Contention Three: Solvency

Egypt allows U.S. election observation- that’s key
Unger-Geoffrey, 10-8 (We asked Lauren Unger-Geoffroy, an Arabic-speaking American who lives in Cairo, to share her perspective of life in Egypt after the revolution. In this entry, she writes about an Egyptian holiday that holds significance for that nation’s history and future, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/celebrating_the_revolution_on_the_anniversary_of_victory_20111008/?ln)
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter … whole world in watching these fledgling democratic efforts.

U.S. Civil societies can circumvent Egyptian crackdown
Washington Post, 11 (Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan, U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, March 4, 2011, http://www.iri.org/news-events-press-center/news/washington-post-features-iris-work-egypt)
A history of influence American … in the media through campaigns organized by the government.

No anti-US backlash- recent demonstrations prove
Gubash, 9-9 (Charlene Gubash, NBC News Producer, In Tahrir Square, US not as hated anymore, http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/09/7691072-in-tahrir-square-us-not-as-hated-anymore)
In Tahrir Square, US not as hated … freedom from dictators.

No stigma against U.S. aid
Kagan and Gerecht, 11 (Foreign Policy Initiative, FPI Director, Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a former director of the Project for the New American Century's Middle East Initiative and a former resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute,  “Arabs seek democracy regardless of how they feel about the US,” 3-10-11, http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/arabs-seek-democracy-regardless-how-they-feel-about-us-says-fpi-director-robert-kagan)
Let's start with the fact that Egyptians do not … regardless of how they feel about the United States.

Even if SCAF backlashes- Egyptians are still accepting assistance
The Nation, 11 (Max Strasser, freelance journalist and writer in Istanbul who covers Turkey, Egypt and the Middle East, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?” 7-22, http://www.thenation.com/signup/162239?destination=article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt)
Most of these millions will go to … worse, to force it on us," she said.

Shifting democracy assistance is key to prevent military takeover- key to the transition
Aziz, 11 (Sahar Aziz is an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law and a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. She serves as the President of the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association, Tom Kutsch, What's behind the Egyptian military's attacks on civil society? August 18, 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/18/whats_behind_the_egyptian_militarys_attacks_on_civil_society)
At first blush, the attacks appear to be a rerun of … of supporting democracy tailored to the needs of a particular nation. 

Even if there’s some backlash- our signaling arguments outweigh
Gedmin et al., 11 (Jeffrey Gedmin, Chief Executive Officer, The Legatum Institute SPEAKERS: Uri Dadush, Senior Associate, International Economics Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michele Dunne, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, The Atlantic Council Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, EGYPT IN TRANSITION: THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION AND THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FRIDAY, JUNE 22, 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/72211_transcript_egypttransition.pdf)
And there are some disturbing trends here, …think this is – and also – that’s number one

Core technical assistance to civil societies is crucial to solving Egyptian instability and the economy
POMED, 11 (Project On Middle East Democracy, POMED Notes: “The Role of Civil Society in a New Egypt” On Thursday, the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion on the path ahead for Egypt and the role civil society can play in supporting the country’s development in its democratic transition. John Page, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution made opening remarks and introduced the following panelists: Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center; Hisham Fahmy, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt; Jackie Kameel, Managing Director of Nahdet El Mahrousa; Awais Sufi, Vice President of the International Youth Foundation; and Amira Maaty, Program Officer for Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy. March 25, 2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/03/pomed-notes-the-role-of-civil-society-in-a-new-egypt.html/)
Before asking panelists to remark on … to partnering with it.

Advantage One Relations:

Education reform is crucial for sustainable US-Egypt relations- avoids backlash

Gosendale, 11 (Mr. Gosende is a retired Foreign Service Officer who now serves as the at the .  He was President Clinton’s Special Envoy for Somalia in 1992, January 28, 2011 “US-Egypt: Use Power Softly and Forget the Stick” )

Nobody is watching these events more closely than Washington’s … today in the streets of Cairo and Tunis we must take careful next steps.

US-Egypt relations are key to US access Suez Canal

Satloff, 11 (RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT AND LEBANON: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY AND ALLIES IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 9 AND 10, 2011 Serial No. 112–32, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing_notice.asp?id=1208)

Egypt obviously will lose its American …possible is difficult to imagine.

This controls the direction of all global warfare and crushes power projection globally- independently collapses global trade, causes Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkey-Israel-Cyprus conflict

Copley 11 (Gregory R., Chairman of the International Strategic Studies Association’s Balkan & Eastern Mediterranean Policy Council, Editor of Global Information System Defense and Foreign Affairs, and Author of several books about Egypt, Gregory, Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis, Defense and Foreign Affairs Report, 1-30,http://www.dfaonline.net/Open%20Zone/Egypt%20Jan%2030%202011.htm)

Security and stability of Suez Canal sea … over Egypt and introduce a new generation of leadership to bridge the transition until the re-emergence of a charismatic leader.

Trade conflict causes escalatory global nuclear

Panzner 8, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase (Michael, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will … and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.  

Naval power solves global nuclear war

Kagan 07,  Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review (http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)]

It is easy but also dangerous to underestimate the role the United States plays in … retraction of American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path.

Iraq escalates to nuclear war and pulls-in major powers

Corsi 07

[Jerome R. Corsi, staff writer for World Net Daily and has a PhD in political science from Harvard University, "War with Iran is imminent,” 1/8/2007, http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669]

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq, Olmert will certainly …broader regional war could easily lead into a third world war, much as World Wars I and II began.

Ethiopia-Eritia water conflict escalates

Shinn, 06 (Amb. David H. Shinn, Adjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Egypt Reconsiders its Nile Strategy, Which Underpins Red Sea Security and Horn of Africa Stability, http://www.dfaonline.net/Open%20Zone/Egypt%20Jan%2030%202011.htm)

Nile Basin Relations: Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia

There is one school of thought that argues there has never been a major …international community to ensure that conflict does not break out.

Causes extinction

Hoffman, June 18, 2009

(W. T., “Reading about dryness thats NOT dry reading” artist and musician and avid reader http://www.amazon.com/Heart-Dryness-Bushmen-Permanent-Drought/dp/0802715583)

Water wars must be on all our minds. It was even …face the problem, and get a handle on it NOW.

High risk of great power draw in

Glick 7
 (Caroline Glick. “Condi's African holiday” Jerusalem Post. Dec 11, 2007. )

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and …actors and global powers.

Greece-Turkey war causes escalation

Ian Lesser (Woodrow Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar) 2000 “NATO Looks South:  New Challenges and New Strategies in the Mediterranean” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1126/

A third, more proximate, source of risk in Turkish perception concerns relations with Greece. … defense-industrial, intelligence, and training relationship with Israel is a new element in this calculus.

Advantage Two Renewable Energy

Civic education is key to Egyptian universities

AUC, 10 (American University in Cairo, Egypt, Institute Profile, www.tufts.edu/talloiresnetwork/downloads/AmericanUniversityinCairo.doc)

The key challenge faced by the American University in Cairo is … environment for civic engagement in higher education may change in the near future.

That’s key to Egypt renewable energy production

ENCC, 10 (Egyptian National Competitiveness Council, “Green Egypt: A Vision for Tomorrow,” The 7^th Egyptian Competitiveness Report, May 2010)

Universities are need to train the engineers and technical …cultural and natural assets.

Egypt is the key regional model – solves global diffusion.

Takoko, 11 (Mere, , March 1, 2011, http://www.koha.biz/2011/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-rising-sun/)

For other investors, Egypt’s economic woes threatened what for many is the … environment for renewable energy development.

Creates global market

Hulme et al., ’10 (Proffesor Michael- Founding Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, “100% renewable electricity A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa”)

But there are also strong arguments why the … market conditions necessary for the rest of the world to follow suit.

Scientific consensus proves warming’s real- causes extinction

Henderson 2k6  [Bill Henderson, environmental scientist, “Runaway Global Warming Denial.”  Countercurrents.org  August 19, 2006.  http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-

henderson190806.htm.]

The scientific debate about human induced global … therefore extinction or very near extinction of humanity.

Warming is real and anthropogenic

EDF ‘9 [Environmental Defense Fund, a US-based nonprofit environmental advocacy group, “Global Warming Myths and Facts,” 1/13/2009, http://mrgreenbiz.wordpress.com/2009/01/13/global-warming-myths-and-facts-2/]

There is no debate among scientists about the basic … for future heat-trapping emissions in order to identify the most likely range for future climatic change.

Advantage Three Stability

Democratic education reform spills over to all forms of Egypt’s education system

Ginsburg et al, 10 (Mark Ginsburg, senior technical advisor at the Academy for Educational Development (USA) and coeditor of the Comparative Education Review. Nagwa Megahed is an Assistant Professor at Ain Shams University in Egypt. Mohammed Elmeski is a Ph.D. student in the Comparative and International Education Program, Department of Educational Policy and Administration, College of Human Development and Education, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities. Nobuyuki Tanaka is a Ph.D. candidate at Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University (Japan) and a consultant for the World Bank (USA), “Reforming Educational Governance and Management in Egypt: National and International Actors and Dynamics,” Volume 18 Number 5 March 1st, 2010 ISSN 1068–2341, education policy analysis archives A peer-reviewed, independent, open access, multilingual journal, http://epaa.asu.edu/epaa/v18n5)

According to the United Nations Development … strengthens the central administration of the education system” (p. 57).

Education reform is key to solve stability

Zewail, 10 (Ahmed Zewail is the Linus Pauling Chair Professor of Chemistry and professor of physics at the California Institute of Technology. He also serves on President Barack Obama’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, and is the U.S. Science Envoy to the Middle East, Reflections on Arab Renaissance, This article is based on addresses given by the author at the Dubai Press Club and at the Cairo Opera House in 2010.

For the Arab world, good education is critical for … library and museum constituted a beacon of knowledge.

Egyptian Instability causes global nuclear war

Erickson, 11 (Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, , )

Worldwide attention has been focused for many days on events in Cairo, the … in 1973, inviting armed conflict like nothing we have ever seen.

Education assistance is crucial to solve Egyptian regional influence and prevent radicalization – US is key, multiple reasons

El-Baz, 07 (Dr. Farouk El-Baz, member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, is Director of the Boston University Center for Remote Sensing and a veteran of the golden age of the Apollo space program. Besides a spacecraft on Star Trek named after him, award-winning El-Baz also served as Science Advisor to Anwar Sadat, late President of Egypt. After decades of training top-notch astronauts, El-Baz explains in this eloquent essay the critical need for educational reform in Arab countries, “Reform in Arab Countries: The Role of Education” , February 12, 2007)

Egypt used to play a leading role in the Arab … compromising admission criteria or the quality of the offered curricula.

Egyptian radicalization causes WMD conflicts
Cohen 7 (Ariel Cohen Senior Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation 7 “Knowing the Enemy” Hoover Institution at Stanford policy review 145. October)
 Islamist extremist/jihadi organizations, … study, worth analyzing in greater detail.

Extinction
 Russell, 9 (James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring)
 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers//, #26, )
 Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by … with substantial risk for the entire world.

Plan: The Executive Branch of the United States Federal Government should increase civic and democratic decentralization education reform assistance for Egypt

Egypt says yes- wants education reform

Stewart, 11 ( Professor Frances Stewart, Chair of Committee for Development Policy, Informal Summary 2011 Economic and Social Council High-Level Segment General Debate Tuesday, 5 July 2011 Chair: H.E. Mr. Lazarous Kapambwe, President of ECOSOC Opening remarks: Mr. Sha Zukang, Under-Secretary-General, UNDESA , Professor Frances Stewart, Chair of Committee for Development Policy)

H.E. Dr. Ahmed Gamal El-Din Moussa, Minister of … community to achieve success in education.

No disad links- Education program exists now the plan just transfers it to our democracy and governance strategy- civic education is key

Snider and Faris, 11 (Erin, Gates Scholar and former Fulbright Fellow in Egypt, David, Dr. Faris is a professor at Roosevelt University. “The Arab Spring: U.S. Democracy Promotion in Egypt,” )

Such an approach addresses the developmental … stronger relations between the two countries.

No alt causes – relations are distinct from credibility

Glassman and Glickman, 10-12 (Ambassador James Glassman, Executive Director, George W. Bush Institute; former Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Secretary Dan Glickman, Senior Fellow, Bipartisan Policy Center; former Chairman and CEO, Motion Picture Association of America; former Chairman, House Select Committee on Intelligence, “Strategic Public Diplomacy: The Case of Egypt,” October 2011, )

We conclude, however, that U.S.-funded …interests that public diplomacy seeks to advance.

Relations are not irreparable- the plans democratic signal is key to build sustainable relations

Heydemann, 11 (Senior Vice President, Grant Program and Special Adviser, Egypt's Transition, February 14, 2011, Muslim World Initiative, )

America's relationship with Egypt will …country toward a democratic political order.

Topicality- Democratic Only

We meet and CI- civic education and decentralization are under the four categories of D.A.

McMahon 2002, Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study  http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf

U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies may differ … study all of these categories would be shown to reflect across-the-board improvements as a result of U.S. assistance.

Now reasons to prefer-

Our interpretation is predictable and in the literature- only our interpretation provides a case list

Aff flexibility outweighs – it’s a massive neg biased topic- the literature is more than just pro-democratic forces-

Forcing us to say democratic incentifies bad pics that lead to substantive crowd out

Good is good enough- anything else overincentifies T and is infinitely regressive

Interp key to topic education

TPS, 02 (The USAID Office of Democracy and Governance Technical Publication Series was launched in March 1998. The series includes publications intended principally for USAID personnel; however, all persons interested in the sector may benefit from the series. Authors of individual publications may be USAID officials and/or other individuals from the public and private sector. The DG Office reserves the right to review and edit all publications for content and format and all are subject to a broad USAID review process, June 2002, “APPROACHES TO CIVIC EDUCATION: LESSONS LEARNED” )

Over the past decade, civic education …its different democracy programs.

AT: SCAF Won’t Close Down Suez

Our arguments not that they would shut down the Suez Canal but close it off to US access which would cause US intervention- that’s Satloff

AT: Suez Impact Defense

Their impact defense doesn’t assume breakdown of relations, Iran influence, and selective use- that’s Satloff

Our Copley says that even the mere perception it will be closed or temporary disruption triggers our impact-

Their empirics don’t assume the Arab Spring nor our specific scenario

AT: Backlash

Egypt is asking for US assistance in education

Monitor, 10-29 (Trade Aid Monitor, “” Original, daily reporting of little-known U.S. government-funded foreign aid projects and overseas business subsidies. )

The deadline to submit proposals for …and technology high school students.

Egypt sees it as important

Monitor, 10-19 (Trade Aid Monitor, “Feds Step in to Help Gifted Science, Tech, and Math Students,” Original, daily reporting of little-known U.S. government-funded foreign aid projects and overseas business subsidies. )

Having recognized “the importance of … of nationwide community college system in Egypt 

Education reform is key to prevent Egypt-Israeli conflict

Sayed, 05 ( is an academic at the European University Institute, Florence, Italy, specializing in development assistance, policy analysis, and governance in the Euro-Mediterranean region and a consultant to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Development.

 “Security, Donors' Interests, and Education Policy Making in Egypt,” )

Almost all Egyptian intellectuals of almost all ideological stripes communicate a need for watchfulness. Although some are more optimistic than others, it is the dominant feeling that Israel could violate the peace treaty if it were to gain significant and … and minimizes any potential eruption of armed conflict.

2AC- International Actor CP

Perm: Do Both

U.S. leading role is key-

A. Relations- need on-the-ground cultural exchanges between the U.S. and Egypt for sustainable linkages- that’s Gosendale.

B. U.S. education programs are key- popularity and perception of U.S. universities are key to prevent funding loss, admission criteria and quality curriculum- That’s El Baez

C. Visible US funding is key to solve signal

Ebeld 07, (HANAA M. EBELD, Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, )

The recent revisions of USAID activity priorities and foci signal a considerable departure from the aid priorities that have persisted during the past three decades. The new

revisions reflect the need to make the aid … to improve the Egyptian public’s perception of the United States.

Perm: Do the plan and every combination of the CP planks

Links to politics

Reuters 11

Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership, mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921

Foreign policy has slipped down his policy … undermines U.S. global prestige.

International fiat is a voting issue- creates an illogical decisionmaking process, justifies object fiat destroying fairness- request cps and disads solve their offense

U.S. education is key- language

Cupp, 09 (Jennifer Cupp graduated from Washington State University with a bachelor's degree in communication, and will be attending the University of Denver in Colorado, working towards a master's degree in international communication. Cupp was an intern with Al-Arabiya News Channel in Washington, D.C. Hind Al-Sulaiti is a student at Qatar University.  “,” July 22, 2009 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/journalism-boot-camp/in-qatar-and-egypt-educat_b_242656.html)

The United States Agency for International … that pay well, said El-Gamal, the Egyptian minister of education.

US influence is key to transitional democracy

Al-Oraibi and Russel, 11 (Mina Al-Oraibi is the Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief for Asharq Al-Awsat, the world’s largest pan-Arab daily newspaper. Gerard Russell is a Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, The Trust Deficit: Seven Steps Forward for U.S. — Arab Dialogue, Summer 2011, https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Al-Oraibi_Russell.pdf&embedded=true&chrome=true)

This article has addressed itself entirely to … it can move in that direction.

USAID is vital

Giles, 10 (John Gillies, Acting Senior Vice President and EQUIP2 Project Director Academy for Educational Development, EQUIP2 Project Director, “The Power of Persistence Education System Reform and Aid Effectiveness Case Studies in Long-Term Education Reform,” November)

As a bilateral aid organization, USAID played a … and the international community and projects.

AT: Jackson Vanick

Won’t pass – not top of the docket, and alt causes to relations

Voice of Russia 12-14-11. [“Russia and US face reset troubles” -- http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/14/62204969.html)

There is no information so far whether he is to use his power to repeal the … is time for a real reload, favorable for both states.

No Vote Soon

No vote on JV repeal soon.

Itar-Tass 12-21. [“US workgroup seeking to repeal Jackson-Vanik amendment” -- lexis]

The US Congress is in no hurry to repeal the … offered by Russia's entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Boehner not Obama is key.

Bloomberg 12-14-11.

Ultimately, fate of the Jackson-Vanik … inquiries about the speaker’s intentions on Jackson-Vanik.

Magnitsky bill thumps Russian relations.

Solash 12-15. [Richard, junior correspondent, “U.S. Officials Push Jackson-Vanik Repeal, Tiptoe Around Magnitsky Legislation” Radio Free Europe -- http://www.rferl.org/content/us_russia_jackson_vanik_magnitsky_wto_gordon_melia/24422300.html]

The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law and Accountability …provoked a furious response from Moscow.

US giving civil society aid to Libya now – triggers the link.

Ali 12-22. [Khadija, freelance journalist, “US Ambassador Says US Committed to Supporting Libya” Tripoli Post -- http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=7538]

United States ambassador to Libya, …and strengthen community relationships..."

Syria

Rogin, 12-28 (Josh, Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable, , )

The officials acknowledged that … least until late February or early March. Between now and then, hundreds or even thousands more could be killed.

Obama focused on campaign -- not spending PC on anything and it wouldn’t work if he was- Congress is pissed.

Dennis 12-5. [Steven, RC staff, “Obama’s aloof behavior with GOP could hurt agenda” Roll Call -- http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_68/Obama-Aloof-Behavior-gop-hurt-agenda-210744-1.html?pos=htmbtxt]

President Barack Obama's relationships with … wouldn't be a very good use of his time."

Obama blocking Keystone XL- huge political loss

Politico, 12-17. [“Senate punts: Two-month deal on payroll” -- http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70556_Page2.html]

Democratic insiders predicted Obama will … be approved or the issue will come right back to hurt the president.”

Online piracy top of the agenda – sparks fights.

Snider 12-28. [Mike, Tech & entertainment reporter, “Online piracy a hot button issue for Congress in January” USA Today -- http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2011-12-27/SOPA-congress-piracy/52246628/1]

A hot issue awaits Congress when it returns in January: … sites to stop and cut off payments and ad revenue. The electronics association backs that alternative.

LP

Foreign policy success breeds political capital
 Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

Presidents rely heavily on Congress in …political capital at home ().

VN

Political capitals not key

Walter and Mondale, 2010

[Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

But personality is not a solid foundation for a … sales pitches go only so far.

Fights over the plan now

CAN, 12-31 (Channel news asia, “Egypt risks losing military aid with raids,” )

Egypt runs some risk of losing $1.5 billion … Institute, the National Democratic Institute, and Freedom House.

Executive action avoids politics and gives Obama a win—Jobs plan proves

Wolf 10/26--Richard, USA Today News, "Obama uses executive actions instead of law", 2011, Tuscon Citizen,

For President Obama, it was something akin to a public policy hat trick.

During a three-day Western trip that ended … largely to challenging community health centers to hire them.

FS

Plan’s bipartisan

Morissey, 11 (Ed, Congress gets bipartisan on Egypt, 2-1, http://hotair.com/archives/2011/02/01/congress-gets-bipartisan-on-egypt/)

It’s good to see Republicans and Democrats …ought to speak as one voice during this crisis.”

Plans popular- Pro-Democracy lobby, AIPAC, farm and defense department

Peters, 11 (Anne Mariel Peters, an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, Why Obama Shouldn’t Increase Democracy Aid To Egypt, February 14, )

As in most policy areas involving the appropriation of …democracy portfolio is a lonely place to be. Lonely before, lonely again."

Clinton shields the link

The Hill, 10-25 (Hillary Clinton in spotlight's glare, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/189519-hillary-clinton-faces-big-tests)

Most of Clinton’s policy skirmishes …veto of the lawmaker’s U.N. reform bill.

Budget debates about the plan are inevitable

POMED, 10-21 (Project on Middle East Democracy, Summary and Highlights of the FY12 State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Bills, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/summary-and-highlights-of-the-fy12-state-and-foreign-operations-appropriations-bills.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader#.Tqr9T10cqf8)

On Wednesday 9/21, Senator Patrick … law in a final appropriations bill passed by both chambers of Congress.

Alt causes to relations

CSM, 12-23 (Christian Science Monitor, “US-Russia ties: Chill over Syria replaces warmth of Obama's 'reset' policy,” )

Remember ’s “reset” … regime of ousted leader .

There is zero threat of war with Russia

Perkovich ‘3 (George Perkovich, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2003

As for Russia, a full-scale war … posture of America's present arsenal.

Iran Add-On

Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June,

America’s interest in preventing Iran …and Iran, and demonstrate that commitment in practice.

Causes regional war and miscalc

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June,

As it struggles to recalibrate its Iran policy, … to produce sudden and game-changing war.

When the United States did move in support of …community can play an important role in building the SNC’S organizational capacity.

Our epistemology and methodology about Syria are good

Weiss and Hachim, 11 (Michael Weiss, Michael Weiss is the communications director of the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based foreign policy think tank, and a blogger for . He is the co-author of .

and Brigadier General Akil Hachim (Ret.) Military Advisor to Syrian National Council, Safe Area for Syria An Assessment of Legality, Logistics and Hazards, )

The Strategic Research and …educational system reform, health system reform and foreign policy among others.

Assad’s regime committed thousands of war crimes – the SNC was designed to protect Syrians through international pressure like the plan

Oman Observer 9-16-11 (“Syrian dissidents form national council,” http://main.omanobserver.om/node/65045)

Addressing a news conference at the end of four … attended the opposition meeting in Istanbul as an observer, Tabbara said.

Representations don’t influence reality

Kocher ‘2K

(Robert L, Author and Philosopher, http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/reality_sanity1.htm)

While it is not possible to establish many proofs in the verbal … leave the availability of people to victimize and steal from while they profess what they pretend to believe in.

The plan solves U.S. credibility- avoids kiss of death

Tobin ’11 (Jonathan S. Tobin, journalist, “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” Commentary Magazine. 7/8/11. www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/)

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford and his French … further massacres and give hope to dissidents who will now know they are not alone.

play video on speakers: (1:30)

 (Saul Williams performing: Not in my Name - Pledge of Resistance (DJ Spooky remix))

We believe that as people living

in the United States it is our

responsibility to resist the injustices

done by our government, in our names

Not in our name

will you wage endless war

there can be no more deaths

no more transfusions of blood for oil

Not in our name

will you invade countries

bomb civilians, kill more children

letting history take its course

over the graves of the nameless

Not in our name

will you erode the very freedoms

you have claimed to fight for

Not by our hands

will we supply weapons and funding

for the annihilation of families

on foreign soil

Not by our mouths

will we let fear silence us

Not by our hearts

will we allow whole peoples

or countries to be deemed evil

Not by our will

and Not in our name

We pledge resistance

We pledge alliance with those

who have come under attack

for voicing opposition to the war

or for their religion or ethnicity

We pledge to make common cause

with the people of the world

to bring about justice freedom and peace

Another world is possible

and we pledge to make it real

Saul Williams is an American poet, writer and musician known for his blend of poetry and alternative hip hop and for his leading role in the 1998 independent film Slam,

Now, The United States is on the precipice of invading Syria. Building from interventions in Iraq and Libya, the US continues to seek control of the Middle East through the auspice of “humanitarian intervention.”

Nerguizian 12-13-2011 – visiting fellow with the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS (Aram, “Instability in Syria: Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention,” http://csis.org/files/publication/111213_SyriaMilitaryIntervention.pdf)

The chorus of international pressure on Syria … the Arab-Israeli conflict through Hezbollah.

US groundwork for the invasion of Syria has already begun. Mimicking Reagan’s tactics towards the Contras, the US seeks to up-end the natural course of Syria’s democratic transition. Through the operative function of the military-industrial complex, the US is masking the nature of Syrian democracy with more boots on the ground.

Steele 1-17-2012 – (Jonathan, “Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from western media,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/17/syrians-support-assad-western-propaganda)

Suppose a respectable opinion poll found that most Syrians ... The mission needs to stay in Syria and not be bullied out.

This process of militarization is accomplished in our name. US policy of global policing continues because of the assumption of the inherent morality of American democracy. This fear of the foreign other is at the foundation of political violence and processes of extermination.

Chow 2006 (Rey, Andrew W. mellon professor of the Humanities at Brown University, The age of the world target: self-referentiality in war, theory, and comparative work, pages 35-36)

Among the most important elements in war, writes Karl von Clausewitz, … affirms the idealized image of the self.

Furthermore, the preemptive invasions of Iraq, Libya, and now Syria is symptomatic of the US strategy of class warfare. The US sustains its imperial overreach to police and maintain economic exclusion in the new world of globalization.

Masud 1-8-2012 – former Ambassador and Secretary in the Foreign Ministry of Bangladesh (Kazi Anwarul, “Diffusion Of Power In A Multipolar World,” http://www.eurasiareview.com/08012012-diffusion-of-power-in-a-multipolar-world-oped/)

The dissolution of the Soviet empire and more … that the developing nations lacked adequate safety for the FDI and investors.

Preemption does not merely take place in foreign spaces. Rather, the logic of preemption expressed through the US military-industrial complex negates democracy and the right to exist freely domestically and abroad.

Goh 2006 – Visiting Fellow at Harvard University (Irving, “Disagreeing Preemptive/ Prophylaxis: From Philip K. Dick to Jacques Rancière,” Fast Capitalism, 2.1, http://www.uta.edu/huma/agger/fastcapitalism/2_1/goh.html)

Fifty years after the text of Minority Report …  normative condition of global peace and security.

Preemption emphasizes anxiety and uncertainty towards the future. The current credit crisis demonstrates how the economic and political interests of ruling elite are prioritized at the expense of the rest of society. Rejecting the politics of preemption is necessary to rearticulate militarized politics.

McClanahan 2009 – Postdoctoral Fellow at the Humanities Center at Harvard University (Annie, “Future’s shock: Plausibility, preemption, and the fiction of 9/11,” Symploke, Volume 17, Numbers 1-2)

The preemptive conception of the future, … by intervening in the futurity of our present.17

Thus Francisco and I believe that the United States should cease practices of military intervention in Syria.

Arguing that the US should not intervene in our name creates space for a politics devoid of arbitrary exclusion. Furthermore, it offers the possibility of a universal ‘we,’ capable of moving forward in this increasingly globalized world.

Hill 2007 – Professor of French Studies at the University of Warwick (Leslie, “'Not In Our Name': Blanchot, Politics, the Neuter,” Paragraph, Volume 30, Number 3)

Politics, Blanchot wrote in 1984 … And the reply, joyful, endless: him, him, him [lui, lui, lui].’4

As intellectuals, we must engage in debates over US policy towards Syria in order to disrupt dominant knowledge production about the necessity of military intervention. Libya demonstrates that militarist approaches towards Middle Eastern democracy succeed in its absence.

Walt 11 (Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/)

Academics can make at least three distinct contributions to public discourse … academic scholarship to be of less value than the scholars who produce it might wish.

Public deliberation focused on policy outcomes is necessary for authentic democratic practices. The US invasion of Iraq demonstrates that the privileging of personal politics enables hegemonic domination at the expense of oppressed groups.

Boor Tonn 2005 – Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland (Mari Boor Tonn, “Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public” Rhetoric& Public Affairs Vol. 8, No. 3)

This widespread recognition that access to public deliberative … very pulse and lifeblood of democracy itself.

These dialogical conversations only entrench us into hegemonic forms of political inaction- provides cover for ignoring structural problems

Boor Tonn 2005 – Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland (Mari Boor Tonn, “Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public” Rhetoric& Public Affairs Vol. 8, No. 3)

Fourth, a communicative model that views public issues through a relational… public realm can foster and sustain such problems.

2AC AT: Global/Local K (Emporia)

Agree that local focus is good

Militarism = recruitment of the underprivileged

Not in our name = call against militarization

Public deliberation = life blood democracy

Opposition to preemption is foundation of democracy

Goh 2006 – Visiting Fellow at Harvard University (Irving, “Disagreeing Preemptive/ Prophylaxis: From Philip K. Dick to Jacques Rancière,” Fast Capitalism, 2.1, )

And as the American State war-machine leads the world in the global "war on terror,"  … consensus, the consensus of the preemptive in all its forms.

Solvency – Hill – community challenge and contesting knowledge production important to change American proclivity for war.

Academic debates can subvert political power and abuse (Walt)

We Meet – 3 tier

1.      1AC includes non-traditional scholarship – Saul Williams rendition of Not in Our Name argues for our obligation in resisting violence done in the name of US citizenship.

2.      1AC includes the perspectives of the oppressed – resisting US preemption is a response to the injustice of class warfare and securitization in response to September 11

3.      1AC takes the position of the organic intellectual – Walt and Boor Tonn – intellectuals should resist injustice by uniting concerns with public deliberation.

No alt solvency – globalization makes local solutions impossible.

Privileging personal experience encourages groupthink and escapism from reality. A negative ballot means self-satisfaction at the expense of political action.

Boor Tonn 2005 – Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland (Mari Boor Tonn, “Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public” Rhetoric& Public Affairs Vol. 8, No. 3)

Third, whereas in social and therapeutic talk, personal experience, opinion, ,…  [but] only the very limited realm of therapeutic, small group interaction."40

Structural racism in Kansas City is informed by racism elsewhere in the US – privileging personal experience can’t solve

Boor Tonn 2005 – Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland (Mari Boor Tonn, “Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public” Rhetoric& Public Affairs Vol. 8, No. 3)

Furthermore, identification intrinsic … we can ignore because don’t affect us personally

Guantanamo Bay is currently a political black hole- we often ignore these injustices because they are “out of sight out of mind”- just because they don’t affect us personally we shrug off these responsibilities

Lithwick, 1-11 (Dahlia, Canadian writer and editor who lives in the United States, Lithwick is a contributing editor at and senior editor at . She writes "Supreme Court Dispatches" and "Jurisprudence" and has covered the trial and other legal issues for Slate, )

In the foreign press they are saying that the camp “” and … think about little else, perhaps we can agree that pretending it isn’t there probably isn’t the answer.

TURN – Militarism – local focus can’t resolve the logic of preemption intertwined with the education system. This enhances structural oppression by targeting rural youth as ammunition to sustain the war on terror.

Wall 2010 – Eastern Kentucky University (Tyler, “School Ownership Is the Goal,” Appearing in Schools under surveillance: cultures of control in public education, p 104-106)

The active search for civilian bodies, especially youthful bodies, to transform them into military bodies is a relentless military venture. Finding bodies for war is one aspect of a larger process of societal militarization, … and many current recruitment ads are saturated with rural imagery such as corn fields, tractors, barns, and wholesome white “farm boy” soldiers.

Root cause militarism – we recruit in local communities

Link of omission

No role of ballot – c/i – who does the better debating

alt ignores questions of policy and structural agency

Their focus on personal experience cannot solve structural problems- material focus like the plan solves their psychology impacts

Boor Tonn 2005 – Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland (Mari Boor Tonn, “Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public” Rhetoric& Public Affairs Vol. 8, No. 3)

Finally, a key weakness in a dialogic model for treating systemic social problems is its reliance on … and it is usually most strongly advocated by those who are the most powerful."

Causes group think- the impact is further marginalization and scapegoat

Boor Tonn 2005 – Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland (Mari Boor Tonn, “Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public” Rhetoric& Public Affairs Vol. 8, No. 3)

Rather than developing relationships of equality, … cohesiveness in conversational models grants freer license to scapegoat.

Academic discussions of policy are necessary, the alternative is inaction

Walt 11 (Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/)

The bottom line is clear: … to high standards of both rigor and relevance.

1AR

We meet 3 tiers –

Neg is link of omission – theory v/I – their args are self-serving and non-falsifiable

Walt – role as intellectuals can challenge government

Alt doesn’t spill over – we do

Policy debate reinvigorates democracy

Perm – can focus on both

Case turns DA – militarization makes people into pawns.  Larger instance of psychological violence

Gitmo DA – focus on local makes it impossible to speak out about international injustice – proves perm best

Privileging personal experience à group think – proves perm best

TURN – criticism of US militarism is a precursor to resolving local oppression

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. 1967 (““Beyond Vietnam: A Time to Break Silence,” http://andrewgavinmarshall.com/2011/07/14/war-racism-and-the-empire-of-poverty/)

Perhaps the more tragic recognition of reality took place when it became clear to me that … thousands trembling under our violence, I cannot be silent.

2AR

Link of Omission

Recruitment – leads to more violence than our method does

Permutation

Gitmo DA

Visible US funding is key to solving signal

Berman 8/19

[Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council “How To Help Sink Assad’s Syria”, Forbes, 8-19-2011, ]

The plan avoids kiss of death

Tobin ’11 (Jonathan S. Tobin, journalist, “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” Commentary Magazine. 7/8/11. www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/)

Not doing the plan allows Iran to pick up the pieces from Assad’s fall

Rubin 8/17

[Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, “Iran Strengthens Its Hold on Syria”, Commentary, 8-17-2011, ]

Assad collapse is inevitable- Assistance not pressure is key

Phillips, 1- 19 (James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation, “Preparing for a Post-Assad Syria,” )

Assad collapse is inevitable- U.S. leading from the front in Syria is key to check Iran influence

Doran, 12-13 (, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, , , “United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?” December 13, 2011, )

Failure to aid the opposition risks substantial loss of U.S. influence in Syria

Crowley 11

[P.J. Crowley, former assistant secretary and spokesman for the State Department in the Obama Administration, the Omar Bradley chair of strategic leadership at Dickinson College, the Penn State Dickinson School of Law and School of International Affairs, and the Army War College, “Time to tell Syria’s Assad to go”, The News Tribune, 6/24/2011, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/06/24/1718842/time-to-tell-syrias-assad-to-go.html]

US giving civil society aid to Libya now – triggers the link.

Ali 12-22. [Khadija, freelance journalist, “US Ambassador Says US Committed to Supporting Libya” Tripoli Post -- http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=7538]

Aid now to Morocco

PR Newswire 12-23-11. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-136156558.html

Assad Collapse Inevitable

The plan solves for Assad collapse- defections, public outreach to minorities, business- that’s Maalouf

Economic crisis and rebel fighting

Yaliban, 1-18 (Assad to be driven out within three months, says Syrian MP, http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/01/18/assad-to-be-driven-out-within-three-months-says-syrian-mp/)

Assad to be driven out within three months, says Syrian MP

Collapse in three months- defections and internal collapse

Yaliban, 1-18 (Assad to be driven out within three months, says Syrian MP, http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/01/18/assad-to-be-driven-out-within-three-months-says-syrian-mp/)

There is zero threat of war with Russia

Perkovich ‘3 (George Perkovich, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2003

2AC- Turkey Forum CP

Perm: Do both

Perm: Do CP

U.S. assistance is necessary- leading from behind ensures cosmetic concessions and emboldens Assad- that’s Maalouf and Torbey,

Doesn’t solve any of the aff-

Maghul

U.S. is key- turkey fails

Badran, 11 (Tony, “Obama’s Options in Damascus,” August, 16, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/obamas-options-in-damascus/_

Turkish involvement kills the opposition

Mustafa 8/29

Bassam Mustafa. “Most Syrian Kurdish Parties Boycott Opposition Gathering”. Rudaw News. August 29, 2011. http://www.rudaw.net/english/news/syria/3941.html

International fiat is a voting issue- creates an illogical decisionmaking process, justifies object fiat destroying fairness- request cps and disads solve their offense

U.S. won’t join the forum- doesn’t support the SNC and bureaucracy

Rogin, 12-28 (Josh, Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable, Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition)

International fiat is a voting issue- creates an illogical decisionmaking process, justifies object fiat destroying fairness- request cps and disads solve their offense

Turkey Forum undermines U.S. leadership on Syria- links to politics

Coghlan, 11 (Jo, “Obama Leading From Behind on Syria,” 8-22, http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/08/22/obama-leading-from-behind-on-syria/)

Only the US can check back Iran

Cohen, 11 (Craig, Craig Cohen is vice president for research and programs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. In this role, he is the principal adviser to the CSIS president and CEO on the Center’s research and programmatic agenda, helping to manage more than 40 substantive programs and recruit new senior scholars to CSIS. He recently served as editor for two CSIS publications: Capacity and Resolve, on foreign assessments of U.S. power, sponsored by the National Intelligence Council; and Global Forecast 2011, on the top international security challenges of the current era, Capacity and Resolve, June 2011, Center for Strategic & International Services, http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf)

U.S. leadership is vital- no substitute

Kessler, 12-12 (Oren, No substitute for US leadership on Syria, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=249058)

Turkey can’t solve- no credibility

Weiss 10/26

Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad. “Turkey's Hand in the Syrian Opposition”. October 26, 2011. The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/

No Turkish accession- Cyprus, political obstacles

Today’s Zaman, 1-1 (Turkey sees bleak future for EU accession talks in 2012, http://www.todayszaman.com/news-267358-turkey-sees-bleak-future-for-eu-accession-talks-in-2012.html)

Alt causes to EU Accession

Giannotta, 1-19 (Valeria Giannotta is an Italian scholar specializing in Turkey’s domestic affairs and international relations. She is currently a lecturer at Yildirim Beyazit Univeristesi in Istanbul, and a visiting scholar at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Policy Evolution and Goals under the AKP Government, http://www.balkanalysis.com/turkey/2012/01/19/turkish-foreign-policy-evolution-and-goals-under-the-akp-government/)

2AC- Turkey- US Cooperation

Plan’s not key- relations resilient

VOA, 1-18 (Burns On U.S.- Turkey Partnership, http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Burns-On-US--Turkey-Partnership--137586818.html)

“

2AC- Politics

Won’t pass.

WSJ 1-17-12.

Payroll tax cut doesn’t solve the economy.

Washington Post 11. (9-8-11 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/just-how-effective-is-the-payroll-tax-cut/2011/09/08/gIQAodirCK_blog.html)

Global economic collapse imminent – Eurozone crisis

The Market Oracle, 1-2-12

[Lew Rockwel, l"Economic Collapse is the Number One Catastrophic Event That Americans Worry About ", http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32405.html]

No impact- econ decline doesn’t cause war

Barnett ‘9 (Thomas P.M. Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” 8/25/2009)

Iraq signing statements thumps the link.

Broder 1-14. [Jonathan, CQ Staff, “Tightening the Screws On Iran — and Obama” CW Weekly -- http://public.cq.com/docs/weeklyreport/weeklyreport-000004011280.html]

Executive circumvention thumper

a.      Immigration and nominations

LA Times, 1-6-2012 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-immigration-20120107,0,5923586.story

b.     Signing statements

Washinton Times, 12-26-2011 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/26/obama-blows-off-congress/

LP

Foreign policy success breeds political capital
 Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

US giving civil society aid to Libya now – triggers the link.

Ali 12-22. [Khadija, freelance journalist, “US Ambassador Says US Committed to Supporting Libya” Tripoli Post -- http://tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=7538]

VN

Political capitals not key

Walter and Mondale, 2010

[Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

Executive action avoids politics and gives Obama a win—Jobs plan proves

Wolf 10/26--Richard, USA Today News, "Obama uses executive actions instead of law", 2011, Tuscon Citizen, http://tucsoncitizen.com/usa-today-news/2011/10/26/obama-uses-executive-actions-instead-of-law/

Inaction on Syria kills Obama’s PC.

Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon, “Here we go again: GOP criticizes Obama inaction on Syria,” 3/24/2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/24/here_we_go_again_gop_criticizes_obama_inaction_on_syria

.

Congress debating Syria policy now – triggers the link.

Saine 12-14. [Cindy, Capitol Hill reporter, “US congressional panel seeks to aid syrian opposition” Voice of America -- http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Congressional-Panel-Looks-for-Ways-to-Help-Syrian-Opposition-135604588.html]

2AC- Saudi Relations Disad

Official US support solves Saudi backlash

Hannah 8/9

[John Hannah, Foundation for Defense of Democracies: Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Fellow and Former Assistant to Vice President Dick Cheney, “Responding to Syria: The King’s statement, the President’s hesitation”, Foreign Policy, 8-9-2011, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/responding_to_syria_the_kings_statement_the_presidents_hesitation]

No China impact

Boucek 6-21-11 – associate in the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and lecturer in politics at the Woodrow Wilson School, media analyst at the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington,  associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, and former security editor with Jane's Information Group  (Christopher, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il)

No link and relations resilient

POMED 9/15, POMED Notes: “Ten Years after 9/11: Managing U.S.-Saudi Relations”, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-ten-years-after-911-managing-u-s-saudi-relations.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

Security outweighs tit-for-tat disputes

Paul Mutter 11, graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus, “Saudi Arabia: Rolling Back the Arab Spring”, June 29, http://www.fpif.org/articles/saudi_arabia_rolling_back_the_arab_spring

Palestinian statehood veto collapses Saudi relations

SUSTG, 9/16

SUSTG, Saudi-US Trade Group, 9/16/11, Could UN Palestine Vote Alter US-Saudi Relations?, http://www.susris.com/2011/09/16/could-un-palestine-vote-alter-us-saudi-relations/

No Saudi prolif – decades away from even having the capacity

Hoodbhoy, professor of physics at Quaid-i-Azaam University in Islamabad, interviewed by Jess Hill, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 7/1/2011

[lexis]

Pervez Hoodbhoyis a professor of physics at Quaid-i-Azaam University in Islamabad, and a strong advocate of nuclear non-proliferation. He spoke to Jess Hill from Islamabad. PERVEZ HOODBHOY

Relations are resilient

Hunter 11

[Shireen T. Hunter, “Middle East Uprisings: Impact on US Regional Influence”, International Peace Studies Centre, 7-13-2011, http://peace-ipsc.org/publications/articles/middle-east-uprisings-impact-on-us-regional-influence]

Builds regional consensus

Lynch 11

[Marc Lynch, “A Regional Response to Syria”, Foreign Policy, 4-27-2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/27/what_we_can_do_about_syria]

Plan prevents Saudi leadership over Syria—stops a Saudi-Iran conflict

Mainen 11

[Matthew Mainen, a policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi’s Dangerous Role in Syria”, Mainen Middle Easy Analysis, 7-25-2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]

2AC- Epistemology

Case outweighs-plan is the key internal link to avert multiple nuclear wars-prefer our scenarios because they provide casual links based in empirical observation instead of abstractions-.

Epistemology focus causes paradigm wars- drags down the alt

Alexander Wendt, 3^rd Most Influential Scholar of IR in the World According to Survey of 1084 IR Scholars, ‘98

(“On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association)

Our epistemology and methodology about Syria are good

Weiss and Hachim, 11 (Michael Weiss, Michael Weiss is the communications director of the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based foreign policy think tank, and a blogger for The Daily Telegraph. He is the co-author of The Syrian Opposition: Political Analysis with Original Testimony from Key Figures.

and Brigadier General Akil Hachim (Ret.) Military Advisor to Syrian National Council, Safe Area for Syria An Assessment of Legality, Logistics and Hazards, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/111228_intervention_Syria_paper_.pdf)

The link is miniscule – Assad’s regime committed thousands of war crimes – the SNC was designed to protect Syrians through international pressure like the plan

Oman Observer 9-16-11 (“Syrian dissidents form national council,” http://main.omanobserver.om/node/65045)

No impact to orientalism or hidden motive

Windschuttle, Former Senior Lecturer in Social Policy at the University of New South Wales, 1999

(Keith, The New Criterion, January, http://newcriterion.com:81/archive/17/jan99/said.htm)

Extinction outweighs

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., professor of government at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, former chair of the National Security Council Group on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 1986, Nuclear Ethics, p. 65

Perm: Do the plan and all parts of the alternative that are mutually exclusive

The alternative fails, leads to disengagement which re-inscribes orientalism

Morten Valbjørn, PhD in the Department of Political Science @ Aarhus, ‘4 [Middle East and Palestine: Global Politics and Regional Conflict, “Culture Blind and Culture Blinded: Images of Middle Eastern Conflicts in International Relations,” p. 67-8]

2AC- Aid Tradeoff

USAID is region specific

McInerny, 11 (Stephen McInerny, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), director of Advocacy at POMED. He has more than six years experience in the Middle East, including graduate studies in Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo.  His writing on Middle Eastern politics and U.S. foreign policy has been published by the Arab Reform Bulletin, The Daily Star, Foreign Policy, The New Republic, and The Washington Post.  He has spoken on Middle East affairs with numerous media outlets including BBC, MSNBC, Al Jazeera, and CBS News.  He received a Masters degree from Stanford University, “The Logic of the Donor Community: American Donors,” April 2011, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/EMHRF-paper-the-logic-of-the-donor-community-American-donors.pdf)

The plan trade’s off with the regional response fund

McInerney ‘11

Stephen McInerney, is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has extensive experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East”. Project on Middle East Democracy Report, July 2011. http://pomed.org/the-federal-budget-and-appropriations-for-fiscal-year-2012-democracy-governance-and-human-rights-in-the-middle-east/

No internal link—USAID will deal with cuts

Mungcal 11

[Ivy Mungcal, “Amid Looming Cuts, USAID to Release 5-Year Strategy Friday”, Devex, 9-14-2011, http://www.devex.com/en/blogs/400/blogs_entries/75909?source=MostPopularNews_5]

No impact—USAID is useless

Frumin 09

[Amy B. Frumin, “Diagnosing USAID”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2009, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64663/amy-b-frumin/diagnosing-usaid]

AT: Saudi Lashout

No internal link between pressure and oil shocks

Egypt triggers their link- no impacts

Luft, 11 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-author of Turning Oil Into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice.”What if Saudi Arabia Erupts?,” February 6, 2011, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=31896pageid=16pagename=Opinion)

Oil policy ensures regional actors protect the Gulf

Jones, 11
 (Prof-History-Rutgers, 6/10, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/%29

Global spare capacity is huge – zero risk of serious shortages

Gholz and Press 8

(Eugene, Professor of Public Affairs – University of Texas at Austin, and Daryl G., Professor of Government – Dartmouth College, “All the Oil We Need”, The New York Times, 8-21, Lexis)

No impact to oil shocks.

Victor ‘7

David Victor, David G. Victor is a professor of law at Stanford Law School and the director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, November 12, 2007, What Resource Wars?, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=16020

2AC- Israel

Non-unique and no internal – relations are down, it’s inevitable, and joint projects solve the impact.

Allen McDuffee is a staff writer for the Washington Post, “Obama, Netanyahu need a joint project for better U.S.-Israel relations,” 1/2/2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/think-tanked/post/obama-netanyahu-need-a-joint-project-for-better-us-israel-relations/2012/01/02/gIQA7IhBWP_blog.html

Israel feels isolated now

Reuters, 11 (Analysis: Diplomatic woes pile up for isolated Israel, August 20, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/20/us-israel-egypt-relations-idUSTRE77J1I020110820)

Turn—Israel wants Assad gone. Prefer this evidence, it’s from the Israeli Ambassador

Oren 11

[Michael Oren, Israeli Ambassador to the United States, “Israel Prefers the End of the Assad Regime To Its Continuance”, The Wall Street Journal, 6-6-2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303745304576364301892536230.html]

Relations are the worst they’ve ever been – new levels of resentment from Israel.

Rubin ‘11

(Jennifer, Freelance writer for the Washington Post’s Right Turn blog, The Weekly Standard, Labor Lawyer/Journalist, “It’s a face: U.S.-Israel relations at low ebb”, Washington Post Opinions, p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/its-a-fact-us-israel-relations-at-low-ebb/2011/03/29/gIQAtHov8H_blog.html)

:

No impact

National Journal ‘2

(George C. Wilson, “Worse Case; Iraqi War Goes Nuclear”, 10-12, accessed online http://www.dnipogo.org/fcs/comments/c461.htm)

Relations resilient

Malka, 10-5 (Haim Malka is deputy director and senior fellow with the CSIS Middle East Program and the recent author of Crossroads: The Future of the U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership.” America cannot solve Israel's challenges” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/05/america-cannot-solve-israels-challenges/)

Iran and Egyptian Instability cause Israel lashout

Singh, 11 (Michael Singh, Harvard International Review, March 2011, “The Middle East is Changing – Will US Policy?” director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, served in the NSC as senior director for Middle East affairs and as director for Iran and for Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and North Africa, served as special assistant to secretaries of state Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell and was staff assistant to then ambassador Daniel Kurtzer at the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv, March 2011)

No spillover

Jones ’10 (Gen. (Ret.) James L. USMC, Obama’s national security advisor, former special envoy for Middle East regional security, Supreme Allied Commander Europe and commander of USEUCOM, “Michael Stein Address on U.S. Middle East Policy at The Washington Institute’s 2010 Soref Symposium”, 4/21/10, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=525)

2AC- Russia Relations Disad

Fights over Syria now- missile defense, elections and libya undermines relations- outweigh everything else

CSM, 12-23 (Christian Science Monitor, “US-Russia ties: Chill over Syria replaces warmth of Obama's 'reset' policy,” http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/1223/US-Russia-ties-Chill-over-Syria-replaces-warmth-of-Obama-s-reset-policy)

Alternate causalities proves issues don’t spillover to broader relations- resilience and posturing for elections

McDowell, Oxford IR doctoral candidate, 2011

(Daragh, “Don't Sweat the Russia 'Reset'”, 8-22, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9837/dont-sweat-the-russia-reset, DOA: 10-21-11, 

No link- Russia has shifted its position on Assad

Gutterman, 12-19 (Steve, Analysis: Bloodshed shifts Russia’s stance on Syria, http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/opinion/cartoon/analysis_bloodshed_shifts_russia_s_stance_on_syria_1_2015597)

Security interests outweigh

Dergham 11 – Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent, Al Hayat (Raghida, “The Arab Awakening Embarrasses the World,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/the-arab-awakening-embarr_b_875469.html)

No impact to relations and they fail inevitably

Fly, Foreign Policy initiative executive director, 10-10-11

(Jamie, “Time to Abandon ‘Reset’?”, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/279602/time-abandon-reset-jamie-m-fly, DOA: 10-21-11)

A1

Unchecked North Korea will cause extinction

Hayes and Green 2009 – Professor of International Relations at RMIT University; Dean of and Professor in the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development at Victoria University (Peter Hayes & Michael Hamel-Green, “Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia,” Asian Pacific Journal)

A2

Independently renewed civil war spills over to Iraq

Sly, 12-11 (Lyz, Liz Sly is the Tribune's Middle East correspondent based in Beirut, and has spent most of the past few years reporting from Iraq and Afghanistan.Syrian conflict threatens Iraq’s fragile balance, She has won several awards for her work, including a George Polk Award for her part in the Tribune series "Tossed out of America" and an Overseas Press Club award for her part in the series "Gambling with Life". She was a two-time winner of the National Association of Black Journalists international reporter of the year award for her coverage of Africa. She won a Clarion award for her coverage of Africa and the Chicago Press Veterans Club Daniel Pearl Award for her coverage of Pakistan and Afghanistan. http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20111211/NEWS0107/112110395/)

Iraq uniquely spillsover causes extinction

Ferguson 6 - Professor of History @ Harvard and Senior Fellow @ Hoover Institution (Niall, “The Next War of the World,” Foreign Affairs, September-October, ProQuest)

(% class="MsoNormal" %) **Regime structure, public opposition and crackdowns** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Green, 1-13 **(%%)(Cyrus, 'Syrian regime bound to collapse,' says former Revolutionary Guards Commander, [[http:~~/~~/www.oyetimes.com/news/107-middle-east/17049-syrian-regime-bound-to-collapse-says-former-revolutionary-guards-commander>>http://www.oyetimes.com/news/107-middle-east/17049-syrian-regime-bound-to-collapse-says-former-revolutionary-guards-commander]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Experts agree** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Black, 1-16**(%%) (Ian, Ian Black is the Guardian's Middle East editor. In more than 25 years on the paper he has also been its European editor, diplomatic editor, foreign leader writer and Middle East correspondent, “Syria: beyond the wall of fear, a state in slow-motion collapse,” [[http:~~/~~/www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/16/syria-collapse-damascus-change?newsfeed=true>>http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/16/syria-collapse-damascus-change?newsfeed=true]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)** ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Fights over Syria now- missile defense, elections and libya undermines relations- outweigh everything else** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 14pt;" %)**CSM, 12-23**(%%) (Christian Science Monitor, “US-Russia ties: Chill over Syria replaces warmth of Obama's 'reset' policy,” [[http:~~/~~/www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/1223/US-Russia-ties-Chill-over-Syria-replaces-warmth-of-Obama-s-reset-policy>>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/1223/US-Russia-ties-Chill-over-Syria-replaces-warmth-of-Obama-s-reset-policy]]) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 10pt; line-height: 115%;" %) **Graham ‘7 **(% style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;" %)(Thomas Graham, senior advisor on Russia in the US National Security Council staff 2002-2007, September 2007, "Russia in Global Affairs” July - September 2007, The Dialectics of Strength and Weakness (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Ivashov ‘7 **(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)(Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “WILL AMERICA FIGHT RUSSIA”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.2in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) = Winners Win 1AR = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Political capital languishes – exercising it makes it grow.** (% class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Kuttner 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;" %) (Robert, Co-Founder and Co-Editor – American Prospect and Distinguished Senior Fellow – Demos (Think Tank), “Barack Obama’s Theory of Power”, The American Prospect, 5-16,http:~/~/prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)** ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Winners Win in the short term- media and psychology ensures** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Green** **6/11** – professor of political science at Hofstra University (David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http:~/~/www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Capital’s not finite- Stimulus proves** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Singer 9**(%%) – editor of MyDD.com, J.D. candidate (Jonathan, 3/3. “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital.” http:~/~/mydd.com/2009/3/3/by-expending-capital-obama-grows-his-capital) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)** ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**The stronger the link the bigger the win- healthcare proves** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__ABC, 10__**(%%) (Australian Broadcasting Corporation, “Obama's first term test” 4-15) (% class="MsoNormal" %) EAMON JAVERS, POLITICO.COM:

2AC- Congress Key

Obama’s key to credibility

Satloff, 11 (Robert, Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute, NEEDED: HIGH-LEVEL U.S. ATTENTION TO THE DIRE SITUATION IN EGYPT, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1714)

Such an announcement - himself.

No link

Presidential powers resilient

Bob Deans, Cox Washington Bureau, January 23, 2000, The Atlanta Journal and Constitution, “The American Presidency,” p. 2B

Many scholars argue - seem to happen.’’

2AC: UN CP

Official US action is key to brand the plan: key to solvency

LORD ‘9 (Dr. Kristin M., Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security, Congressional Testimony, “flag on the bag? Branding foreign assistance and the struggle against violent extremism,” http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/122356/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/f3771ca0-79ff-4846-be86-4c282167962d/en/Flag+on+the+Bag,+Branding+Foreign+Assistance+and+the+Struggle+Against+Violent+Extremism,+Kristin+Lord+HASC+Testimony.pdf)

It is also sustained -of that assistance.

Links to politics

Reuters 11

Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease - U.S. global prestige.

a. Its means associated with – control is not required

Collin English Dictionary ’98  p 817

  Its – of, belong to, or associated in some way with it.

USFG democracy assistance is best described as using 3^rd parties

Daniela Huber, Department of International Relations, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, Available online: 07 Feb 2008. “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” MEDITERRANEAN POLITICS, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13629390701864836

Method looks at - an international partner.

3^rd Party CPs are a voting issue: steals the entirety of the 1AC while the aff only has a single US key warrant

Leading from behind devastates US influence

Krauthammer, 11

Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, 4/29/11, The Obama Doctrine: Leading from Behind, www.nationalreview.com/articles/265933/obama-doctrine-leading-behind-charles-krauthammer

To be precise, - are merely stunned.

Either Security council reform makes UN ineffective or no reform means no legitimacy

Patrick, CFR Senior Fellow, 2009

[Stewart, director of the International Institutions and Global Governance Program at the Council on Foreign Relations, "Prix Fixe and a ` la Carte: Avoiding a False Multilateral Choices", Washington Quarterly, October 2009]

Fifth, simply expanding - address the other.

2AC- Credibility Kritik

Framework-  We should be able to weigh the plan against the kritik- Alternative frameworks are infinite, lack clear criteria increasing judge intervention, and are biased toward the Neg by allowing them to pick any one representation. The impact is predictability and fairness.

Extinction outweighs

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., professor of government at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, former chair of the National Security Council Group on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 1986, Nuclear Ethics, p. 65

The equal access - a future generation.

Epistemology focus causes paradigm wars- drags down the alt

Alexander Wendt, 3^rd Most Influential Scholar of IR in the World According to Survey of 1084 IR Scholars, ‘98

(“On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association)

As a community, - caricatures of science.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction---multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth -Century now unfolding.

It’s important to fear warming and debate policy options – this strategic use of fear criticizes the worst forms of apocalyptic framing while preserving the best.

Michael Pfau, Professor Communication – U Minnesota-Duluth, ‘7 (Philosophy and Rhetoric, 40(2))

A fear appeal - United States itself.

There is no substitute to the current security framework – the alternative causes the state to become more powerful and interventionist – flipping their impacts

Tara McCormack, ’10, is Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Leicester and has a PhD in International Relations from the University of Westminster. 2010, (Critique, Security and Power: The political limits to emancipatory approaches, page 127-129)

The following section -emancipatory theoretical approaches.

Turns the K – strategic planning to prevent crisis escalation is the only way out of the security dilemma – alt fails in practice.

PH Liotta, Pell Center for IR & Public Policy, ‘5 [Security Dialogue 36.1, “Through the Looking Glass: Creeping Vulnerabilities and the Reordering of Security,” p. 65-6]

Although it seems -to address – security.  

2AC- Politics

Won’t pass.

WSJ 1-17-12.

As members of Congress - politically sensitive deals.

Agency consolidation

Marx, credit union times, From the January 25, 2012 issue of Credit Union Times Magazine  [Wrote not released, Claude R. “Obama Pushes Agency Consolidation”, http://www.cutimes.com/2012/01/22/obama-pushes-agency-consolidation]

The Small Business -be a partisan issue.” 

Payroll tax cut doesn’t solve the economy.

Washington Post 11. (9-8-11 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/just-how-effective-is-the-payroll-tax-cut/2011/09/08/gIQAodirCK_blog.html)

Indeed, a number - of doing that.”

Tax extension makes social security a public funded program – explodes the deficit

Nancy Cook 9-8, budget and tax correspondent at the National Journal, “The Small-Bore Solution”, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/payroll-taxes-the-small-bore-solution-20110908

Putting extra money - on fiscal responsibility.

Makes their impacts inevitable

Bergsten 9

[C. FRED BERGSTEN is Director of the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. He was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs from 1977 to 1981 and Assistant for International Economic Affairs to the National Security Council from 1969 to 1971, “The Dollar and the Deficits,” Foreign Affairs; Nov/Dec2009, Vol. 88 Issue 6, p20-38, 19p]

EVEN AS efforts - increasingly compromised.

Political capitals not key

Walter and Mondale, 2010

[Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

But personality - only so far.

Executive action avoids politics and gives Obama a win—Jobs plan proves

Wolf 10/26--Richard, USA Today News, "Obama uses executive actions instead of law", 2011, Tuscon Citizen, http://tucsoncitizen.com/usa-today-news/2011/10/26/obama-uses-executive-actions-instead-of-law/

For President Obama, it was something akin to a public policy hat trick.

During a three-day - centers to hire them.