GSU Aff

• Tournament: Sample Tournament | Round: 1 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Sample Judge
  
  

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• Contention 1 Nuclear Terrorism

  Libya’s police will step back now, they fear retribution
  Lubold 11
  [Gordon Lubold, “What’s Next for the New Libya”, United States Institute of Peace, 8-30-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/what-s-next-the-new-libya-usip-experts-weigh-in]
  Naturally, security is……..with Qaddafi,” she says.

  An insurgency is likely now—reconciliation is key
  Haynes 11
  [Deborah Haynes, Defense Editor of the London Times, “UK Commentary Warns Islamists, Al-Qadhafi Loyalists Likely to Destabilize Libya”, 8-30-2011]
  Anyone who believes……..prevent further strife.

  Insurgent violence creates an opening for al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
  Lister 11
  [Tim Lister, “Q&A: Gadhafi’s options, future scenarios and more”, CNN World, 8-24-2011, http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/24/libya.qanda/index.html?iref=obnetwork]
  A peaceful if not……….three priorities in Libya now: security, security and security

  Means Libyan nuclear material is likely to be stolen and sold—police are key
  Birch 11
  [DOUGLAS BIRCH - Associated Press, KIMBERLY DOZIER, "Libya's deadliest weapons not yet corralled", http://news.yahoo.com/libyas-deadliest-weapons-not-yet-corralled-212848414.html]
  No one can be sure who………capable of building a nuclear weapon.

  AQIM is a unique nuclear terrorism threat—only securing nuclear sites in Libya solves
  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11
  [“After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat”, 5-13-2011, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t]
  The evolving threat. While Al Qaeda's……..a US priority must be securing this potential source material.

  Causes extinction
  Ayson 10 – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)
  But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state………might it then draw about their culpability?

  You should prioritize the sheer magnitude of a nuclear terrorist attack – probability doesn’t apply to our scenario
  Allison 07
  [Graham Allison, Professor of Government, and Faculty Chair of the Dubai Initiative – Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, “Symposium: Apocalypse When?”, The National Interest, November / December 2007, Lexis]
  MUELLER IS entitled……..a bale of marijuana.

  Contention 2 Burden-Sharing

  The nature of global power is changing—U.S. muscular foreign policy is unsustainable, but we’ll try
  Jones 11
  [Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
  The first point is one……just the two Houses of Congress.

  No other international entity wants the job—the U.S. will be forced to overstretch further
  Jones 11
  [Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
  There is no ready………increasingly overstretched as a result.

  Absent European burden-sharing, that causes an abrupt withdrawal of U.S. commitments
  Jones 11
  [Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]
  Should the United States…….if either is to achieve its goals.

  Abrupt withdrawal causes nuclear war
  Brzezinski 05
  [Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of  Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership”]
  History is a record of change……America’s global misuse of its own power. 

  Libya demonstrates a model of burden-sharing that is sustainable
  Zakaria 11
  [Fareed Zakaria, columnist for Newsweek and editor of Newsweek International, until moving to Editor-At-Large of Time in 2010. He is also the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, and a frequent commentator and author about issues related to international relations, trade and American foreign policy,  “How the Lessons of Iraq Paid Off in Libya”, Time Magazine, 8-25-2011]
  Back in March, many neoconservatives……..not a bad model for the future.

  It’s the goldilocks level of foreign policy
  O’Hanlon 11
  [Michael E. O’Hanlon, Director of Research and Senior Fellow at Brookings and the 21st Century Defense Initiative, “The Rebellion in Libya at the Tipping Point”, 8-22-2011, http://www.brookings.edu/multimedia/video/2011/0822_ohanlon_libya.aspx]
  It still is sort of a signature accomplishment……..isolationism on the other.

  Successful Libya provides the precedent for future limited, targeted assistance
  Gvosdev 11
  [Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media. He is currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, “The Realist Prism: Obama’s Post Realist Turn in Libya”, World Politics Review, 8-26-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9892/the-realist-prism-obamas-post-realist-turn-in-libya]
  As the Libya operation enters………..the threat this posed to the United States.

  U.S. involvement on the transition is key to solidify those gains
  Kagan 11
  [Robert Kagan, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a August 26, “An imperfect triumph in Libya”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-imperfect-triumph-in-libya/2011/08/26/gIQA5gC9gJ_story.html]
  The toppling of Gaddafi’s…………will be great. Obama needs to resist it.

  Europeans don’t perceive a U.S. commitment
  Joyner 11
  [James Joyner, “Libya Exposes Transatlantic Contradictions”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog, Atlantic Council, 8-26-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-exposes-transatlantic-contradictions]
  First, for a variety of reasons….. European “caveats” in Afghanistan.

  But, U.S. involvement on the security aspect of the transition solves
  Dubik 11
  [James M, Institute for the Study of War Senior Fellow,  a retired Army lieutenant general who oversaw the training of Iraqi troops from 2007 to 2008, "Finish the Job", 4-26-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/opinion/26Dubik.html?_r=1]
  Public pronouncements aside…….. face its consequences. 

  Strong NATO solves nuclear war
  Brzezinski 09
  [ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, 2009, U.S. National Security Adviser from 1977 to 1981. His most recent book is Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower, September 2009 - October 2009, (Foreign Affairs, SECTION: Pg. 2 Vol. 88 No. 5, HEADLINE: An Agenda for NATO Subtitle: Toward a Global Security Web, p. Lexis)]
  ADJUSTING TO A TRANSFORMED WORLD……and the West more generally

  Independently, burden-sharing is key to European relations and nonproliferation
  Patrick, CFR Program on International and Global Governance Senior Fellow and Director, 8-30-11
  [Stewart, "The Transatlantic Alliance Survives the Summer", http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/08/30/the-transatlantic-alliance-survives-the-summer/]
  Writing in Foreign Affairs last week….. serve as the United States’ primary partner. 

  Relations solve European war
  O’Sullivan 04
  [John O'Sullivan, Editor-in-Chief of the National Interest, 4-1-04, A look at U.S.-European relations, UPI, LexisNexis]
  The report's starting point  that U.S.-European relations are extremely important ………between a half-dozen great powers that led to 1914.

  European conflicts cause nuclear war
  Glaser 93
  [Charles. Prof of Policy @ U of C. “Why NATO is Still the Best” International Security, Summer 1993. LexisJVOSS]
  From an American perspective…….should not be unconcerned about Europe’s future.

  Proliferation causes nuclear war
  Utgoff, Deputy Director at Institute for Defense Analysis, 02 [Victor, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions” 2002 p. 87-90]
  Further, the large number of states that ……dead cities or even whole nations.

  And, effective burden-sharing allows the U.S. to focus on China
  Kaplan, Center for a New American Security Senior Fellow, 8-28-11
  [Robert, "Libya, Obama and the triumph of realism", http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a76d2ab4-cf2d-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1WQRx35NM]
  Realism is dead, clamour the…….that will help define the 21st century.

  China rise is inevitable – focus on the region is key to dissuade hostility
  Bolton, AEI Senior Fellow, 1-18-11
  [John, " The west needs to stand up to Beijing", http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f413f6fe-2316-11e0-ad0b-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=ca6ea7d6-1d94-11e0-a163-00144feab49a.html#axzz1WdUcKs9m]
  Mao Zedong once said that……..for America to ready itself now.

  U.S.-China war causes extinction
  Strait Times 00
  [6/25/2000, l/n]
  THE high-intensity scenario postulates……..China puts sovereignty above everything else.

  Contention 3 Solvency

  Greater involvement in Libya inevitable without the plan
  Chaddock 11
  [Gail Russell Chaddock, Staff writer at the Christian Science Monitor, “What happens next in Libya? America’s five greatest concerns.”, The Christian Science Monitor, 8-26-2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0826/What-happens-next-in-Libya-America-s-five-greatest-concerns/Secure-Libya-s-arsenal]
  There is strong, bipartisan………..militarily – of our own making.”

  Massive democracy assistance to Libya now—but nothing on transition security
  Ward 11
  [Mark Ward, Deputy Assistant Administrator for the Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance, “Libya: Humanitarian and Transition Assistance”, USAID, 9-8-2011, http://blog.usaid.gov/2011/09/libya-humanitarian-and-transition-assistance/]
  Yesterday, at an event organized……..so evident throughout their struggle, is truly inspiring.

  Congressional debate over Libya coming now
  Blanchard 11
  [Christopher M. Blanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Libya: Unrest and U.S. Policy”, Penny Hill Press, 9-13-2011, http://www2.pennyhill.com/?p=19709]
  The shift in momentum and rebel success……..supporting international security efforts.

  Libyans want the plan
  Rausch 11
  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]
  USIP’s Manal Omar, who is in Libya now……already done in other countries in the Middle East.

  A JSD would work in Libya
  Rausch 11
  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]
  What are some practical things Libyans can do to…………working in Kirkuk, Iraq.

  Reconciliation that builds an effective police force is the key internal link to solvency
  Ben-Meir 11
  [Alon Ben-Meir, senior fellow at NYU Center for Global Affairs and expert on Middle East politics and affairs, specializing in peace negotiations between Israel and Arab states “Elections in Libya Should Be Deferred”, 8-30-2011, http://www.alonben-meir.com/articles/read/id/510]
  Collecting weapons will be a key…………no civil society no non-governmental organizations and no parliament.

  U.S. leadership avoids disillusionment—even if European actors also solve
  Ottaway et al. 11
  [Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Fadel Lamen, President of the American-Libyan Council, and Esam Omiesh, Director of the Libyan Emergency Task Force, “Libya: Thinking Ahead to the Transition”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7-14-2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/071411_transcript_LibyaTransition.pdf]
  But for an Arab or a…………and transition to democracies, they are a must. Thank you.

  Plan

  The United States Institute of Peace should conduct a Justice and Security Dialogue between Libyan government officials, Libyan rebel fighters, police forces employed under the previous Libyan regime, Libyan civil society leaders, and Libyan citizens.

  
  
  

Kentucky Policy 1AC

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Contention 1 AQIM

  Police will step back now—they fear retribution

  Lubold 11

  [Gordon Lubold, “What’s Next for the New Libya”, United States Institute of Peace, 8-30-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/what-s-next-the-new-libya-usip-experts-weigh-in]

  Naturally, security is a…Qaddafi,” she says.

   

  A police vacuum creates widespread instability

  Haynes 11

  [Deborah Haynes, Defense Editor of the London Times, “UK Commentary Warns Islamists, Al-Qadhafi Loyalists Likely to Destabilize Libya”, 8-30-2011]

  Anyone who believes…prevent further strife.

   

  Causes nuclear proliferation

  Serwer 11

  [Daniel Serwer, “Imagining Libya, a Decade from Now’, Foreign Policy, 8-22-2011, ]

  There are many worst-case scenarios…aid the rebel cause.

   

  That causes nuclear war

  Krieger 09

  [David Krieger, President of the Nuclear Age Foundation and a Councilor on the World Future Council, “Still Loving the Bomb After All These Years”, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 9-4-2009, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2009/09/04_krieger_newsweek_response.php]

  Jonathan Tepperman’s article…more rational than Mr. Tepperman?

   

  AQIM will gain capability from Libya

  Ganley 11

  [Elaine Ganley, “Al-Qaida in North Africa seeks Arab Spring jihad”, Associated Press, 8-15-2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hfncqhSjMzaaJ1Bw-_qcVq_9uVHA]

  Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb wants to put its footprint…uprisings around the Arab world

   

  That means AQIM will acquire Libyan conventional weapons and WMD material

  Birch 11

  [DOUGLAS BIRCH - Associated Press,KIMBERLY DOZIER, "Libya's deadliest weapons not yet corralled", http://news.yahoo.com/libyas-deadliest-weapons-not-yet-corralled-212848414.html]

  No one can be sure who…more capable of building a nuclear weapon

   

  AQIM conventional weapons causes African instability

  McElroy 11

  [Damien McElroy, “Libyan conflict thrusts Niger into unwelcome spotlight”, The Telegraph, 9-18-2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/niger/8771182/Libyan-conflict-thrusts-Niger-into-unwelcome-spotlight.html]

  "Libya has put the stability…very worrying," he said.

   

  That escalates to nuclear war

  Lancaster 00

  [Carol, Associate Professor and Director of the Master's of Science in Foreign Service program at Georgetown University, Foreign Affairs, October, 2000)]

  THE MOST BASIC CHALLENGE… prove more dangerous than ever.

   

  AQIM will get broader chemical material

  Matishak 11

  [Martin Matishak, “Libyan Chemical Materials a Proliferation Threat, U.S. Commander Says”, reprinted on Global Security Newswire, Nuclear Threat Initiative, 9-15-2011, http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110915_6822.php]

  WASHINGTON -- Libya's stockpile of…in improvised explosive devices.

   

  Chemical terrorism causes as much destruction as nuclear war

  Gray 94

  [David G. Gray, NOTES: THEN THE DOGS DIED": THE FOURTH AMENDMENT AND VERIFICATION OF THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION, The Columbia Law Review, March 1994, LexisNexis]

  With the decline of…its time has come.

   

  AQIM will engage in nuclear terrorism if it gets mateiral—securing sites is key

  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11

  [“After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat”, 5-13-2011, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t]

  The evolving threat. While…this potential source material.

   

  Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

  Ayson 10

  [Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)]

  But these two nuclear…draw about their culpability?

  Contention 2 Transatlantic Cooperation

  Despite increasing European emphasis on democracy assistance, the U.S. has not reciprocated with comprehensive policies

  Melia 09

  [Thomas O. Melia, “Supporting Democracy Abroad: Transatlantic Cooperation at a Crossroads”, US-EU Responss to Globalization – Working Papers, 2009, http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/transatlantic-topics/Articles/eu-us/forging-eu-us-partnership/us-eu_book_democracy_thomas_melia.pdf]

  Nearly a year into…promotion of democracy.

   

   

  This lack of commitment has undermined transatlantic democracy assistance cooperation

  Melia 09

  [Thomas O. Melia, “Supporting Democracy Abroad: Transatlantic Cooperation at a Crossroads”, US-EU Responses to Globalization – Working Papers, 2009, http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/transatlantic-topics/Articles/eu-us/forging-eu-us-partnership/us-eu_book_democracy_thomas_melia.pdf]

  Today, with the world…strengthen democracy in the world?

   

   

  This perception exists in Europe now

  Joyner 11

  [James Joyner, “Libya Exposes Transatlantic Contradictions”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog, Atlantic Council, 8-26-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/libya-exposes-transatlantic-contradictions]

  First, for a variety….“caveats” in Afghanistan.

   

   

  Failure to provide assistance now will create further tensions in transatlantic cooperation and NATO

  Bendery 11

  [Jennifer Bendery, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say”, Huffington Post, 8-25-2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-libya_n_936852.html]

  WASHINGTON -- At a time….assistance, he said.

   

  NATO key to solve European war

  Goldgeier 11

  [James Goldgeier, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington, “NATO’s Role in European Security – and Beyond”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]

  NATO is still Europe’s…eye-to-eye with NATO on this.

   

  European conflicts cause nuclear war

  Glaser 93

  [Charles. Prof of Policy @ U of C. “Why NATO is Still the Best” International Security, Summer 1993. Lexis//JVOSS]

  From an American perspective…unconcerned about Europe’s future.

   

   

  Cooperation over democracy assistance to MENA spillsover to broader cooperation

  Wittes and Youngs 9

  [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, January 2009, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes.pdf]

  Challenges to greater transatlantic…can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

   

   

  Cooperation on the revolutions creates cooperation on financial reform, cyber security, and Durban climate rounds

  Castello-Catchot 11

  [Carles Castello-Catchot, assistant director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Project, “A Transatlantic Weakness to Avoid”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog at Atlantic Council, 9-19-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/transatlantic-weakness-avoid]

  The transatlantic community is weaker….the future is still ours to shape, and win.

   

  Financial reform cooperation key

  Toyer and Jones 11

  [Julien Toyer and Huw Jones, “EU and U.S. pledge to bridge financial reform divide”, Reuters, 6-2-2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/02/us-usa-treasury-barnier-idUSTRE75176I20110602]

  (Reuters) - EU and U.S. regulators….Belchambers said.

   

  Failure of global financial reform causes nuclear war

  Merlini 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed scenarios….unbridled nationalism.

   

  Cyber attack causes complete nuclear war

  Chernenko 11

  [Yelena Chernenko, “Russian daily examines US cyber strategy”, BBC Monitoring, 6-1-2011, LexisNexis]

  The US Defence Department will from now on…Valeriy Yashchenko says.

   

  US-EU cooperation at Durban key to solve climate change

  Hanley 11

  [Charles J. Hanley, “EU hopes for climate roadmap, with US on the road”, Associated Press (reprinted at Taiwan News), 9-22-2011, http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1713899]

  Europe would renew its greenhouse-gas reductions….not actually reducing them below past levels, as richer nations would do.

   

  Catastrophic climate change causes extinction

  Sify 10

  [Sydney newspaper citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno, associate professor of Marine Science at UNC; Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?”, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html]

  The findings of the comprehensive report:….These findings were published in Science.

   

  Greater cooperation with Europe key to prevent overcommitment

  Jones 11

  [Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]

  The first point is one….just the two Houses of Congress.

   

  Over-commitment causes pre-mature withdrawal from the world

  Jones 11

  [Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]

  Should the United States continue….to achieve its goals.

   

  That causes nuclear war

  Brzezinski 05

  [Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of  Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership”]

  History is a record of change…misuse of its own power.

  Plan Texts

  The United States Federal Government, specifically the United States Institute of Peace, should initiate a Justice and Security Dialogue with all relevant actors within Libya.

  The United States Federal Government, specifically the United States Institute of Peace, should initiate a Justice and Security Dialogue within Libya. 

  Contention 3 Solvency

  <Aid now, varies by tournament>

   

  Congressional debate over Libya now

  Blanchard 11

  [Christopher M. Blanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Libya: Unrest and U.S. Policy”, Penny Hill Press, 9-13-2011, http://www2.pennyhill.com/?p=19709]

  The shift in momentum…international security efforts.

   

  Libyans want the plan

  Rausch 11

  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]

  USIP’s Manal Omar…in the Middle East.

   

  A JSD solves reconciliation

  Rausch 11

  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]

  What are some practical…It is also working in Kirkuk, Iraq.

   

  Reconciliation that builds an effective police force is the key internal link to solvency

  Ben-Meir 11

  [Alon Ben-Meir, senior fellow at NYU Center for Global Affairs and expert on Middle East politics and affairs, specializing in peace negotiations between Israel and Arab states “Elections in Libya Should Be Deferred”, 8-30-2011, http://www.alonben-meir.com/articles/read/id/510]

  Collecting weapons will be…no non-governmental organizations and no parliament.

   

  U.S. leadership is key to facilitating cooperation—we’re not traditional nation building

  Solomon 11

  [David Solomon, “Pulling the Strings From Behind The Curtain”, PolicyMic, August, 2011, ]

  The Libyan people…stabilization and reconstruction.

  
  
• 
  
  

Gazprom Advantage (Doubles of Kentucky)

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Gazprom Advantage

  Gazprom can only regain Libyan contacts now if a favorable NTC emerges

  People’s Daily Online 11

  [“Russian interests in Libya hanging in balance”, 8-25-2011, ]

  MOSCOW, Aug 24 (Xinhua) -- As the rebel National Transitional Council…only wait and see," he said.

   

   

  Russia’s influence in the formation of Libya’s new government is key to those prospects

  Reuters 9-1-11 (“Russia recognises Libya's Transitional Council,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/01/us-libya-russia-idUSTRE7800WS20110901)

  Russia recognized Libya's…formation of a government."

   

   

  But, right now Libya will heavily favor the United States

  LaFranchi 11

  [Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer, “In Paris, US seeks to secure its spot among Libya’s new best friends”, The Christian Science Monitor, 9-1-2011, ]

  The US will have several…opportunistic, experts say.

   

   

  But, failure of the U.S. to play an active role in the transition squanders that influence

  Ottaway et al. 11

  [Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Fadel Lamen, President of the American-Libyan Council, and Esam Omiesh, Director of the Libyan Emergency Task Force, “Libya: Thinking Ahead to the Transition”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7-14-2011, NOTICE: This is a verbatim transcript provided by Carnegie; its grammatical accuracy is lacking.]

  But for an Arab…a participatory government.

   

  Gazprom control in Libya is key to Russian monopoly on Europe’s energy

  Blank 11

  [Stephen Blank, Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, “Russia’s Anxieties About The Arab Revolution,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201107.blankrussiaarabspring.html]

  Second, Libya is important…over $100 per barrel unit (bbl).

   

  That makes Russian expansion inevitable

  Baran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute, ‘7 (Zeyno Baran “EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian Leverage” The Washington Quarterly, )

  As of mid-2007…. against each other.

   

  This makes war with the U.S. inevitable

  Blank 07 (Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, “Russian Democracy, Revisited” Spring, )

  Gvosdev defends his brand of realism…at the cost of international catastrophe.

   

  Escalates to global nuclear war

  Yesin 2007 (Colonel General Vladimir Senior Vice President of the Russian Academy of the Problems of Security, Defense, and Law. “Will America Fight Russia?;”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN  July 2007)

  Yesin: Should the Russian-American war begin…the first phase.

   

  And, a monopoly prevents adequate provision of Caspian gas

  Paramonov et. al. 2009 (Vladimir Paramonov, Ph.D. (Political Science), independent expert (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)  Alexey Strokov, Independent expert (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)  Oleg Stolpovskiy, Independent military analyst (Tashkent, Uzbekistan), “Russia’s Foreign Policy: Central Asia—A View From Uzbekistan,” http://www.ca-c.org/online/2009/journal_eng/cac-03/09.shtml) Bankey

  Second, the current building up of Russia’s…wide strategic and tactical possibilities.

   

  Caspian gas is key to Japanese energy security

  Miyagawa 2009 (Manabu Miyagawa is Director of the Economic Security Division of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,“Japan’s Energy Security Policy,” http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090201_bsa_miyagawa.pdf) Bankey

  Another aspect of securing…enhance global energy security.

   

  Leads to Chinese-Japanese war

  Shulong and Rozman‘7, Professor of International Relations at the School of Public Policy and Management/Deputy director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing and Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University /Gilbert and Chu, “East Asian Security: Two Views”, Center for Strategic Studies, November 23/ Mitchums

  Competition is both inevitable…attacks China or Chinese forces.

   

  Draws in the US and goes nuclear

  NTI ‘6, Nuclear Threat Initiative, Threat Reduction Agency created by CNN founder and former U.S. Senator with security representatives from 10 different nations/ “Nuclear Conflict in the 21st Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat”, October 18/

  Any such situation would…Sino-American relations in the nuclear context.

   

  Extinction

  Johnson ‘1 (Chalmers Johnson, author of Blowback: the Costs and Consequences of American Empire, 2001, The Nation, p 20)

  China is another matter…have virtually no deterrent effect.

   

  Breaking Gazprom’s monopoly is key encourage a more competitive business model

  Dreyer 10

  [Iana Dreyer, Analyst at the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels and co-author of ‘The Quest for Gas Market Competition-  Fighting Europe’s Dependency on Russian Gas more Effectively’, “The competition case against Gazprom”, European Energy Review, 2-1-2010, http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id_mailing=32&toegang=6364d3f0f495b6ab9dcf8d3b5c6e0b01&id=1673]

  So far, the EU’s strategy…export outlet for many years to come.

   

  Gazprom is unsustainable now—only a shift to more efficient and competitive structure will save it

  Schmitz 11

  [Gregor Peter Schmitz, ‘Not a Competitive Global Company’, Spiegel Online, 1-5-2011, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,737990,00.html]

  "Gazprom is," the Americans…the US diplomats concluded.

   

  That’s key to Russia’s economy

  Aslund 11

  [Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Gazprom: Challenged Giant in Need of Reform”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2011, http://www.piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/4976/07iie4976.pdf]

  The 2008-10 financial crisis…but insists on building new pipelines to Europe.

   

  Russian economic collapse causes a civil war that escalates and goes nuclear

  David 99

  [Steven David, political scientist, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, January/February 1999, p. ]

  If internal war does strike Russia…follow a Russian civil war.

  
  
• 
  
  

NTC Racism Aff

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4, 5, 7 | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Lost in all the declarations of victory in Libya for the past month has been the brutality of the National Transitional Council. Far from being the beacon of inclusiveness and unity that is often portrayed in the Western media, the Council has engaged in brutal violence against those of black African descent under the pretext of “securing the revolution”. The United States bears full responsibility for the racist violence it has helped to legitimize.

  Symonds 11

  [Jim Symonds, “NATO-backed Libyan regime persecutes black Africans”, World Socialist Web Site, 9-9-2011, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/sep2011/pers-s09.shtml]

  The widespread racist persecution…destroyed and ruined lives.

   

   

  The justification given for these racist reprisals are feelings of retribution from non-black Libyans towards the black minorities in Libya. Gaddafi’s regime employed black Africans in several major posts and positions, causing many non-black Libyans to associate anyone with black skin Gaddafi sympathizers. This violence will continue if action is not taken.

  Ghosh 11

  [Palash R. Ghosh, “Libyan Revolt Unmasks Lethal Racism Against Black Africans”, International Business Times, 8-31-2011, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/206506/20110831/libya-revolt-rebels-black-african-migrants-racism-murder-gadhafi.htm]

  The ongoing revolution…deals with black Africa.

   

   

   

  The United States Federal Government, specifically the United States Institute of Peace, should initiate a Justice and Security Dialogue within Libya involving all relevant actors.

   

   

  The plan is a utilization of outrage to achieve a pragmatic and concrete response to intervention—the U.S. has a moral responsibility and we as debaters have a individual responsibility to fight the consequences of intervention and imperialism

  Akuetteh 11

  [Nii Akuetteh, activist and policy analyst focusing on African and international affairs,  “Africa: Anti-Imperialist Rage Should be Constructive” allAfrica, 9-22-2011, ]

  As mentioned, the above…simply providing us catharsis.

   

   

  A Justice and Security dialogue is a practical means of helping a country like Libya overcome the legacies of suspicion and mistrust left by Qaddafi. While the dialogue is facilitated by the United States, the participants themselves take control and work through past suspicions to build new partnerships based on trust, rule-of-law, and shared concerns.

  Rausch 11

  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]

  Simply put, Justice and Security Dialogue…learned and apply it in the field.

   

   

  This question of reconciliation is the biggest challenge lying ahead of a new Libya. Dispelling mistrust is key to turning the euphoria and actual gains made by Qaddafi’s ouster into a reality for all, and not just a reality for a few.

  Kamat 11

  [Anjali Kamat, “Democracy Now! Interview with Anjali Kamat on Militarization and Reconciliation in Libya”, Jadaliyya, 9-14-2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/2643/democracy-now-interview-with-anjali-kamat-on-milit]

  I spent 10 days in Libya… these sort of racist attitudes.

   

   

  Broad, sweeping criticism is useful, but not enough. Discrete, localized battles like the plan are the key to larger resistance against imperialist intervention

  Akuetteh 11

  [Nii Akuetteh, activist and policy analyst focusing on African and international affairs,  “Africa: Anti-Imperialist Rage Should be Constructive” allAfrica, 9-22-2011, ]

  The NATO bombing of Libya…this battle to save African lives.

  
  

• Test 4

  Test

  Test

  This would create Heading 1

  This would create Heading 2

  This would create Heading 3

  This would create Heading 4

  
  
  

Harvard Libya-Russia Aff

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• The United States Federal Government should support Russia’s democratic reconciliation efforts for Libya

  CONTENTION ONE: THE SECOND COLD WAR

  Scenario one: The rise of the hard-liners

  The Kremlin is on the brink of complete chaos: new political features can emerge

  CLOVER 10/17/11 (Charles Clover is the FT's Moscow bureau chief, he spent two years as analysis page editor. He started at the FT in 1997 as a correspondent in Kazakhstan and other countries of the former Soviet Union, “Russia: Out of the shadows”,

  It was supposed to … .what they think he is”. 

  The crisis opens the risk of hard-liner rebellion

  INOZEMTSEV 9/30/11 (Vladislav Inozemtsev, Professor of Economics; Director, Centre for Post-Industiral Studies; Editor-in-Chief, “The Hinge that Holds Russia Together”,

  Since virtually all members of … How many Russians are ready to face such a punch line will become clear soon. 

  Plan is crucial for a moderate rise: outweighs and turns their DA

  COHEN ‘11 (Stephen, Ph.D., professor of Russian studies at New York University and Professor of Politics Emeritus at Princeton University, “Obama's Russia 'Reset': Another Lost Opportunity?”

  An enduring existential reality has been … Western role, for better or worse. 

  Hard-liner rise causes miscalculation: ridding the perception of American danger is key

  LAQUEUR ‘8 (Walter, Concurrently he was chairman of the International Research Council of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He has taught at Georgetown, Chicago, Harvard, Johns Hopkins, Brandeis, and Tel Aviv universities “Russia and the Middle East,”

  But Russia is under time pressure for at least three …. This could open the door to serious miscalculations. 

  Extinction impact: we have the fastest timeframe and biggest impact

  HELFAND AND PASTORE ‘9 (Ira Helfand, M.D., and John O. Pastore, M.D., are past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility, March 31, 2009, “U.S.-Russia nuclear war still a threat”,

  President Obama and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev are scheduled to ….  status of nuclear weapons that existed  in 1995 remains in place today.  
   

  Scenario two: cooperation

  Plan is key to spill-over on long-term cooperation

  DEMPSEY ‘11 (Judy, the New York Times correspondent in Berlin, and chief Europe correspondent for the International Herald Tribune, April 18, “Russia Warns NATO Over the Size of Libya Attacks”,

  The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said it …optimistic assessment, saying the alliance was united in its goal.

  Relations solve multiple extinction scenarios: specifically solves warming and terror

  COLLINS & ROJANSKY ‘10 (8/18/10, James F. Collins, * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND Matthew Rojansky, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,”

  A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with Russia, the reconciliation is still …choice but to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better. 

  Warming is real, anthropogenic, and the largest risk of extinction

  Deibel ‘7 (Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR at National War College, Foreign Affairs Strategy, “Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today Anthropogenic – caused by CO2”)

  Finally, there is one major existential threat to … to the continued existence of life on this planet.  

  Terrorism leads to global nuclear war

  SPEICE ‘6  (Patrick F.  Jr., JD Candidate @ College of William and Mary “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” February 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427]

  Accordingly, there is a significant and ever-present risk ….  draw in the United States and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

  CONTENTION 2: THE RISING POWERS

  Russia and China allying now: Libya 

  MARCUS 10/5/11 (John, BBC defence and diplomatic correspondent, “Why China and Russia rebuffed the West on Syria”,

  The double veto by China and Russia of a UN ….  Syrian regime than stand with the Syrian people."

  Plan key to smoothly move Russia over to our alliance

  BHADRAKUMAR ‘11 (MK, Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, “Russia's Libya role irks China”, June 4,

  The Kremlin is obviously eager to inject a fresh …. contract for the supply of helicopters to Afghanistan.

  Specifically, Libya creates a hostile Russia-Chinese alliance and risks escalation and war

  ROBERTS ‘11 (Paul Craig, former assistant secretary to US Treasury, April 26, “US risks war with China and Russia”,

  Press TV: Drones are now being used in Libya. From where …. This is the real danger and we’re risking a major war. 

  It goes nuclear

  ROBERTS ‘7 (Paul Craig Roberts Senior Research Fellow @ the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “US Hegemony Spawns Russian-Chinese Military Alliance,”

  This week the Russian and Chinese militaries are ….recklessness. The Bush regime is the most irresponsibly aggressive regime the world has seen since Hitler’s.
   

  Russia-China alliance leads to cyber attacks on the US

  WEITZ ’11 (Richard Weitz, Ph.D., Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Political-Military Analysis, Hudson Institute, RIA, April 14, “China-Russia relations and the United States: At a turning point?,”

  The bilateral defense relationship has evolved in ….to deny Internet resources to civil liberties groups and other opponents of their regimes.

  Miscalculation is likely
  Kakutani ’10  (Michiko, 4/26/, The Attack Coming From Bytes, Not Bomb, The New York Times, p.
  The United States’ lack of an effective cyberdefense …. boundaries, causing cascades of collateral damage to unspool around the world.

  The threat of cyber warfare is real

  HABIGER ‘10 (Eugue – Retired Air Force General, Cyberwarfare and Cyberterrorism, The Cyber Security Institute, p. 11-19)

  However, there are reasons to believe that what is going on now …… our deterrence‐based defenses, making us significantly more at risk of a major war.

  Causes world war 3: retaliation
  Lawson, 5/13/2009 (Sean - assistant professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Utah, Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict, p.
  At a time when it seems impossible to avoid …is regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” [7] 

  CONTENTION FOUR: SOLVENCY

  Russia assisting Libya in reconciliation efforts 

  VATUTIN ’11 (Alexander Vatutin, Staff Writer, Voice of Russia, Jul 22, “Moscow helps Libya again”,

  Russia continues to render humanitarian assistance to Libya’s suffering …. compromise to save the lives of thousands of Libyans. 

  The plan is key:

  (1) Libya shaped future actions: cooperation is at an all-time low

  KELEMEN 10/9/11 (Michele, former NPR Moscow bureau chief and now covers the State Department and Washington's diplomatic corps, October 09, “U.S. 'Reset' With Russia On Edge After Syria Vote”,  

  Russia's decision to veto a Security Council …and reopen channels to the president-in-waiting, Putin. 

  (2) Russia’s policy development is at a cross-roads: the debates on Libya can shape it either way

  FROLOV ’11 (Vladimir Frolov, president of LEFF Group, “Lessons from Libya”,

  As the world watches the agony of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's ….that major Russian companies signed with the Gaddafi government. 

  (3) The perception of unilateral support for Russia is key: confirms Russia’s importance

  MAKARYCHEV ‘11 (Andrey, Institute for East European Studies, Free University of Berlin, September, “Russia’s “Libya Debate”)

  Mixed Messages Russia’s response to the Libya …. a tyrant or an example of principled resistance to the U.S.-led world order.   

  (4) Displays to Russia a concrete form of action that spills over

  VANHOOSE ’11 (Hannah is an intern in the National Security and International Policy Program at the Center for American Progress, April 12, 2011, Understanding the Russian Response to the Intervention in Libya”,

  The Russian line regarding the military …. cooperation in the recent past, such as in Kyrgyzstan following the popular uprisings of 2010.

  The United States Federal Government should support Russia’s democratic reconciliation efforts for Libya

  
  
• 
  
  

Libya aff - USC

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Stability Advantage [1]

   

  NTC transitional justice is ineffective now

  Tupaz and Wagner 11

  [Edsel Tupaz, founder and managing partner of Tupaz & Associates, a public-interest law firm with expertise in comparative constitutional law, trade and development law and court systems design, and profess of international and comparative law, and Daniel Wagner, founding CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk consultancy in Connecticut, “Ensuring Justice in Transitional Libya”, JURIST-Sidebar, 11-10-2011, http://jurist.org/sidebar/2011/08/edsel-tupaz-post-conflict-libya.php]

  In an August article, International … end of the transitional period.

   

   

  That crushes stability—reconciliation … is the key internal link

  Ben-Meir 11

  [Alon Ben-Meir, senior fellow at NYU Center for Global Affairs and expert on Middle East politics and affairs, specializing in peace negotiations between Israel and Arab states “Elections in Libya Should Be Deferred”, 8-30-2011, http://www.alonben-meir.com/articles/read/id/510]

  Collecting weapons will be a key … -governmental organizations and no parliament.

   

   

  Instability means AQIM will acquire MANPAD weapons

  Wilner 11

  [Alex Wilner, Senior Researcher at ETH-Zurich and a Macdonald-Laurier Institute Fellow, “Halting al Qaeda’s African rebound”, Troy Media, 11-30-2011, http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2011/11/30/halting-al-qaeda%E2%80%99s-african-rebound-part-3/]

  For AQIM, Libya poses a unique … bill the program will cost.

   

   

  MANPAD attack devastates the U.S. economy

  Ehrenfeld 11

  [Rachel Ehrenfeld, director of New York-based American Center for Democracy and its Economic Warfare Institute, “Libya’s missing missiles: a threat to US airline passengers”, The Christian Science Monitor, 12-9-2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2011/1209/Libya-s-missing-missiles-a-threat-to-US-airline-passengers]

  Are air passengers in the … traffic returned to pre-9/11 levels.

   

  U.S. economy is key to the global economy—it’s sets the trend

  Seeking Alpha 11

  [“Prospects 2012: U.S. Economy Should Continue To Recover Slowly, But Renewed Risk of Recession Remains”, 11-11-2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/307370-prospects-2012-u-s-economy-should-continue-to-recover-slowly-but-risk-of-renewed-recession-remains]

  Although it has been more … major recession in four years.

   

  Economic collapse causes nuclear war

  Merlini 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed scenarios for … absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

   

   

  MANPAD proliferation causes Afghan instability

  Drwiega 11

  [Andrew Drwiega, Military Editor, “Libya’s MANPADs Legacy”, Rotor and Wing, 12-6-2011, http://www.aviationtoday.com/rw/training/military/Libyas-MANPADs-Legacy_75305.html]

  It has always been surprising … consequences for the Karzai government.

   

  Afghanistan instability causes nuclear war

  Rubin 11

  [Joel Rubin, Director of Policy and Government Affairs at the Ploughshares Fund, “Nuclear Concerns After the Afghanistan Withdrawal”, Huffington Post, 7-7-2011]

  Yet many of the underlying … that lead to a nuclear exchange.

   

   

   

  Independently, providing a major focus on USIP is critical to peacebuilding

  Smith 10

  [Dane F. Smith,  senior associate … by State, USAID, and Defense.

   

  Peacebuilding prevents superpower conflict and nuclear war

  Dean 95

  [Jonathan Dean, Adviser on International Security Issues, Union of Concerned Scientists, and Former Ambassador, East-West Arms Control Negotiations, May 1995,“A Stronger UN Strengthens America” http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/1995/ma95/ma95.dean.html]

  Experts throughout the world expect … an increasing number of conflicts.

   

   

  Peacebuilding solves overcommitting our resources ---- … flexibility and preventing heg collapse

  Hughes 11

  [Paul Hughes, chief of staff at the Institute.  Hughes has previously served as director of USIP's Nonproliferation and Arms Control Program, the executive director of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel and the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, and as the director of Iraq programs in the Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations, “Building Peace and a Partnership with the Military”, United States Institute of Peace, 12-8-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/building-peace-and-partnership-the-military]

  When I was commissioned as a second … end conflict using proven techniques.

   

   

  Collapse of hegemony causes nuclear war

  Brzezinski 05

  [Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership”]

  History is a record of change, a … misuse of its own power.

   

  Perception of decline causes extinction

  Nye ’90 ---- Joseph Nye (Former Dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government) 1990 Bound to Lead, 1990 p. 17

  Perceptions of change in the … we know it may end.

   

   

  Leadership Advantage [1]

   

  Leading from behind on Libya is feeding a perception of lost credibility

  Wolfowitz 11

  [Paul Wolfowitz, former United States Ambassador to Indonesia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, President of the World Bank, and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, “America’s Opportunity in Libya”, American Enterprise Institute, 11-3-2011]

  But the failure of the U.S. … it. But they face formidable challenges.

   

  Libya is a test case for U.S. … credibility in the Middle East

  Ghitis 11

  [Frida Ghitis, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, World Politics Review, 8-25-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence]

  The future of Libya was … events in other Arab countries.

   

   

  The plan and immediacy key—U.S. policy on transitional justice determines broader Middle East credibility

  Sawani 11

  [Dr. Youssef Mohamed Sawani, professor of political science at Tripoli University, “Challenges and Prospects in Post-Gaddafi Libya”, The Morningside Post @ Columbia University, 11-24-2011, http://themorningsidepost.com/2011/11/challenges-and-prospects-in-post-gaddafi-libya/]

  Furthermore, this scenario is unfolding … nationals on an equal footing.

   

  USIP is key—enhances American credibility and has personal contacts with the NTC

  Hughes 11

  [Paul Hughes, chief of staff at the Institute.  Hughes has previously served as director of USIP's Nonproliferation and Arms Control Program, the executive director of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel and the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, and as the director of Iraq programs in the Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations, “Building Peace and a Partnership with the Military”, United States Institute of Peace, 12-8-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/building-peace-and-partnership-the-military]

  In many ways, USIP embodies … for foreign affairs and peacebuilding."

   

   

  U.S. influence in the ME key to Egyptian stability

  Schenker 11

  [David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf]

  For this reason, each of … region as a whole depends on it.

   

  Prevents nuclear war

  Erickson 11

  [Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, , ]

  Worldwide attention has been focused … nothing we have ever seen.

   

   

  Perception of weak U.S. influence causes Iranian emboldenment—Libya’s key

  Singh 11

  [Michael Singh, “Leading from behind still isn’t a good idea”, Foreign Policy, 8-31-2011, ]

  The American ambivalence toward the … , a development with deeply troubling implications.

   

  Emboldened Iran miscalculates—nuclear war

  Ben-Meir 07

  (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)

  That Iran stands today able … not halting its nuclear program.

   

  Further, declining Middle East credibility spills over to broader credibility – specifically Asia perceives it

  Inboden 11

  [Will Inboden, Senior Advisor at Avascent International, Distinguished Scholar at Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Assistant Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, “The global chess board”, Foreign Policy, 11-21-2011, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/21/the_global_chess_board]

  China, after all, sees its … the same global chess board.

   

  Libya key ----- perception of … leading from behind causes miscalculation

  Nelson and Sulaiman 11

  [Brad Nelson, president and co-founder of the Center for World Conflict and Peace, and Yohanes Sulaiman, vice president and co-founder of the organization is also a lecturer at the Indonesian National Defense Univesity, “America and Asean: It’s Complicated”, Jakarta Globe, 11-14-2011, http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/america-and-asean-its-complicated/478197]

  Yet, what is important here … in the changing geopolitical order.

   

   

  Nuclear war

  Chok 04

  [Goh Chok, Senior Minister of Singapore, International Institute for Strategic Studies, June 4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2005/2004-speech-archive/keynote-address-prime-minister-goh-chok-tong]

  In Asia, as in Europe, … paying for a bid for independence.

   

   

  Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction---multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

  Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7

  It is worth first examining … the Pacific Century now unfolding.

   

  Relations Advantage [1]

   

  U.S.-Libyan relations are not guaranteed—situation will remain tenuous

  Mine 11

  [Yoshiki Mine, Research Director in Foreign Affairs and National Security, “Will Libya's relations with the United States improve?”, The Canon Institute for Global Studies, 10-14-2011, http://www.canon-igs.org/en/column/security/20111014_1095.html]

  Libya is yet another Arab … establish good relations with the U.S.

   

  But, the plan will build future relations with Libya ----- spills over into future policy choices

  SUPD 11

  [Syracuse University Department of Public Diplomacy’s blog, “Humanitarian Aid as a Strategic Obligation to the People of Libya”, 10-24-2011, http://suapds.wordpress.com/]

  Over the past few days … helping the people of Libya.

   

   

  That solves Libyan WMD scientists

  Birch 11

  [Douglas Birch, “U.S. attempts to keep tabs on Libyan scientists”, Army Times, 9-15-2011, http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/09/ap-us-attempts-to-keep-tabs-on-libyan-scientists-091511/]

  WASHINGTON — The U.S. is trying to … loyalists and unify the country.

   

  This is the key internal link to proliferation ----- Expertise controls all state proliferation risks

  Smallwood and Liimatainen 11

  [Peter D. Smallwood, Smallwood is an associate professor of biology at the University of Richmond. From 2004 to 2005, he served as executive director of the redirection program for Iraqi scientists and engineers who had been working in programs to produce weapons of mass destruction AND**  William T.,Liimatainen, 2009 Department of Defense research fellow who studied post-2003 events in Iraq as they related to the country’s Military Industrialization Commission, “Securing WMD Expertise: Lessons Learned From Iraq”, Arms Control Association, July/August 2011, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011_%2007-08/%20Securing_WMD_Expertise_Lessons_Learned_From_Iraq]

  However, the materials for many … include a greater emphasis on redirection.

   

   

  Extinction

  Krieger 09

  [David Krieger, President of the Nuclear Age Foundation and a Councilor on the World Future Council, “Still Loving the Bomb After All These Years”, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 9-4-2009, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2009/09/04_krieger_newsweek_response.php]

  Jonathan Tepperman’s article in the … are more rational than Mr. Tepperman?

   

   

  We control timeframe and probability

   

  Utgoff ‘2 - Deputy Director at Institute for Defense Analysis [Victor, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions” 2002 p. 87-90]

   

  Further, the large number of … cities or even whole nations.

   

   

  Plan

   

  The United States Institute of Peace should provide expertise on transitional justice to Libya through a Justice and Security Dialogue.

   

  Solvency

   

   

  A JSD solves reconciliation—empirically proven

  Rausch 11

  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]

  What are some practical things … also working in Kirkuk, Iraq

   

  Creates local ownership of transitional justice mechanism

  Rausch 11

  [Colette Rausch, director of the United States Institute for Peace’s Rule of Law Center of Innovation, “Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform”, United States Institute for Peace, 8-24-2011, http://www.usip.org/publications/helping-libya-s-new-leaders-move-euphoria-reform]

  JSD’s emphasis on partnership is … policing and creating new feedback.

   

   

   

   

   

   

  Relations

   

  1AC ev says bioweapons expertise spreads—they’ll cause extinction

  Ochs 02

  [Richard, MA Natural Resource Management at Rutgers University , Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park,  June 9th, immediately," http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html" target="_blank">"Biological Weapons must be abolished >immediately,")

  Of all the weapons of … the highest of all crimes.

   

   

  1AC ev says chemical weapons expertise spreads—chemical weapons use is as bad as nuclear war

  Gray 94

  [David G. Gray, NOTES: THEN THE DOGS DIED": THE FOURTH AMENDMENT AND VERIFICATION OF THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION, The Columbia Law Review, March 1994, LexisNexis]

  With the decline of the … threat; its time has come.

   

  Hegemony

   

  U.S. democracy assistance key to NATO cohesion

  Bendery 11

  [Jennifer Bendery, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say”, Huffington Post, 8-25-2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-libya_n_936852.html]

  WASHINGTON -- At a time when the … or financial assistance, he said.

   

   

  Stops nuclear war

  Brzezinski 09

  [ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, 2009, U.S. National Security Adviser from 1977 to 1981. His most recent book is Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower, September 2009 - October 2009, (Foreign Affairs, SECTION: Pg. 2 Vol. 88 No. 5, HEADLINE: An Agenda for NATO Subtitle: Toward a Global Security Web, p. Lexis)]

  ADJUSTING TO A TRANSFORMED WORLD And … and the West more generally

   

  ***EU

   

   

  It’s a question of perceptions of the U.S. to solve AQIM

  Gordon and Zarate 11

  [David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122]

  Admittedly, in many quarters, the … end of the long war.

   

  Official US action is key … the plan: key to solvency

  LORD ‘9 (Dr. Kristin M., Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security, Congressional Testimony, “flag on the bag? Branding foreign assistance and the struggle against violent extremism,” http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/122356/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/f3771ca0-79ff-4846-be86-4c282167962d/en/Flag+on+the+Bag,+Branding+Foreign+Assistance+and+the+Struggle+Against+Violent+Extremism,+Kristin+Lord+HASC+Testimony.pdf)

  It is also sustained by … opinion because of that assistance.

   

  ***Politics

   

   

  No impact – who the hell is Rick Chamberlin from the indpyndepnt

   

   

  No impact –keystone irrelevant

  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 12-29-11.

  Saying no to the proposed … tankers. That's not a safer route.

   

  Case outweighs—plan prevents collapse of credibility in the Middle East and Asia that diffuses multiple nuclear wars, solves proliferation, economic collapse, and Afghani instability; combined probability outweighs marginal risk of the DA impact

   

   

  No uniqueness—Keystone XL inevitable- Obama will cave

  Lalonde 12-30. [Julien, writer and community organizer who focuses on Climate Justice, Food Sovereignty, and the People's Assembly Movement., 12-30-2011 http://rabble.ca/news/2011/12/no-time-sleep-keystone-xl-pipeline

  Technically, the Obama administration's announcement … set, this pipeline is coming.

   

  PC key ev laughable and empirically denied – Obama officials don’t mean jack

   

  And he wouldn’t cater to the environmentalists – he’s never done anything for the environmentalists

   

  PC not key

  Walter and Mondale, 2010

  [Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

  But personality is not a solid … pitches go only so far.

   

   

  PC not key ---- at worst, he’ll veto

   

  MINCER 12-14-11 (Shifra, Staff writer, http://energy.aol.com/2011/12/14/obama-veto-on-gop-payroll-tax-if-keystone-pipeline-included/)

   

  In a press briefing on Tuesday, … of the Keystone XL pipeline.

   

   

   

  PC spent in Libya now

  Phillips 11

  [Christopher Phillips, London-based writer and analyst finishing a PhD in International Relations at the London School of Economics, “Obama and Britain: the expedient relationship” Aspen Institute Italia, 5-31-2011, http://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/obama-and-britain-expedient-relationship]

  Then there is the military … a manner that was previously absent.

   

  Thumper—online piracy

  Snider 12-28. [Mike, Tech & entertainment reporter, “Online piracy a hot button issue for Congress in January” USA Today -- http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2011-12-27/SOPA-congress-piracy/52246628/1]

  A hot issue awaits Congress … electronics association backs that alternative.

   

  No link

  Blake 11

  [Aaron Blake, “The muddled politics of Libya”, Washington Post, 8-22-2011, ]

  The United States’ involvement in … could have turned out better.

   

  Plan is USIP—it’s an independent executive agency, means it wouldn’t be linked to Congressional debates

   

  Plan builds PC

  Pershing 11

  [Ben Pershing, “Mission over, Congress ready to agree on Libya”, The Washington Post, 11-14-2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mission-over-congress-ready-to-agree-on-libya/2011/11/14/gIQAvtNDMN_story.html]

  It finally looks like Republicans … may be ready to act.

   

   

  Obama has no PC now

  Strait Times 1-1-12.

  The big question is whether … not fall below 8.5% this year.

   

   

   

  ***China

   

  No impact—relations aren’t zero-sum and they are resilient

  Daniel Yergin 7, highly respected authority … in the mainstream of globalization.

   

   

  Case outweighs—plan prevents collapse of credibility in the Middle East and Asia that diffuses multiple nuclear wars, solves proliferation, economic collapse, and Afghani instability; combined probability outweighs marginal risk of the DA impact

   

   

  Case turns the DA—credibility in Asia is key to deter China, that’s Chok

   

   

  No unique link—perception of aid already exists

  Ryan and Robinson 11

  [Missy Ryan and Matt Robinson, “Libya faces long, difficult transition: U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta”, The Montreal Gazette, 12-17-2011, http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada-in-afghanistan/Libya+faces+long+difficult+transition+Defence+Secretary+Leon+Panetta/5877290/story.html]

  TRIPOLI - U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta … and Defence Minister Osama Al-Juwali.

   

   

  Turn—plan allows China to build its influence. It’s not zero-sum

  Pardo 11

  [Ramon Pachelo Pardo, Ph.D and expert on counterproliferation and counterterrorism, lecturer at King’s College London, “The Dragon Eyes the Arab Spring”, The Majalla, 5-31-2011, http://www.al-majalla.com/en/ideas/article359548.ece]

  Four months after Mohammed Bouazizi’s … largest economy in the world.

   

   

  Not unique—China has no influence in Libya

  Yuan 11

  [Jing-Dong Yuan, associate professor and acting director of the CSIS at the University of Sydney, “The Arab Spring and China’s Evolving Middle East Policy”, World Politics Review, 12-20-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10992/the-arab-spring-and-chinas-evolving-middle-east-policy?page=2]

  Beijing’s handling of the prolonged … economic interests in the country.

   

  ***Conditions

   

  Perm—do the plan even if Libya says no. Either a.) Libya says no, meaning the CP doesn’t solve but the perm does, or b.) Libya says yes, meaning the perm and the CP are same

   

  We solve the net benefit—reconciliation is key to inclusion, only way Libya says yes, that’s Ben-Meir

   

  Libya says no to the counterplan

  Kipling 11

  [Bogdan Kipling, Canadian journalist in Washington, whose column appears regularly in the Halifax Chronicle-Herald and leading American news sources, “Con: Quiet diplomacy is America’s best bet in Libya”, The Gazette Extra, 9-10-2011, http://gazettextra.com/news/2011/sep/10/con-quiet-diplomacy-americas-best-bet-libya/]

  Should the United States lead … , would be a most prudent investment.

   

   

  Even if they say yes, they wouldn’t implement the condition

  Gvosdev 11

  [Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media. He is currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, “The Realist Prism: Gratitude vs. Neutrality in Post-Gadhafi Libya”, World Politics Review, 9-9-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9952/the-realist-prism-gratitude-vs-neutrality-in-post-gadhafi-libya]

  But over time, gratitude gives … reluctant to implement in practice.

   

  ***K

   

   

   

  The role of the ballot should determine whether the ends of the plan of the plan are good, not the means of how we got there:  discursive, epistemological arguments and non-policy alternatives don’t count

   

   

   

  Life comes first ----- value to life is biologically tied

   

  BERNSTEIN ‘2 (Richard J., Vera List Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research, “Radical Evil: A Philosophical Interrogation”, p. 188-192)

   

  There is a basic value inherent … objects of your will." (IR 11)

   

  Case outweighs ----- heg decline takes out their alternative

  Wohlforth 09    

  [, Professor of government @ Dartmouth College, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009, Pg. 33-35]

  The upshot is a near scholarly … by positional concerns for status.

  First, if the material costs and benefits of a given status quo are what matters, why would a state be dissatisfied with the very status quo that had abetted its rise? The rise of China today naturally prompts this question, but it is hardly a novel situation. Most of the best known and most consequential power transitions in history featured rising challengers that were prospering mightily under the status quo. In case after case, historians argue that these revisionist powers sought recognition and standing rather than specific alterations to the existing rules and practices that constituted the order of the day.

  In each paradigmatic case of hegemonic war, the claims of the rising power are hard to reduce to instrumental adjustment of the status quo. In R. Ned Lebow’s reading, for example, Thucydides’ account tells us that the rise of Athens posed unacceptable threats not to the security or welfare of Sparta but rather to its identity as leader of the Greek world, which was an important cause of the Spartan assembly’s vote for war. The issues that inspired Louis XIV’s and Napoleon’s dissatisfaction with the status quo were many and varied, but most accounts accord [End Page 31] independent importance to the drive for a position of unparalleled primacy. In these and other hegemonic struggles among leading states in post-Westphalian Europe, the rising challenger’s dissatisfaction is often difficult to connect to the material costs and benefits of the status quo, and much contemporary evidence revolves around issues of recognition and status.

  Wilhemine Germany is a fateful case in point. As Paul Kennedy has argued, underlying material trends as of 1914 were set to propel Germany’s continued rise indefinitely, so long as Europe remained at peace. Yet Germany chafed under the very status quo that abetted this rise and its elite focused resentment on its chief trading partner—the great power that presented the least plausible threat to its security: Great Britain. At fantastic cost, it built a battleship fleet with no plausible strategic purpose other than to stake a claim on global power status. Recent historical studies present strong evidence that, far from fearing attacks from Russia and France, German leaders sought to provoke them, knowing that this would lead to a long, expensive, and sanguinary war that Britain was certain to join. And of all the motivations swirling round these momentous decisions, no serious historical account fails to register German leaders’ oft-expressed yearning for “a place in the sun.”

  The second puzzle is bargaining failure. Hegemonic theories tend to model war as a conflict over the status quo without specifying precisely what the status quo is and what flows of benefits it provides to states. Scholars generally follow Robert Gilpin in positing that the underlying issue concerns a “desire to redraft the rules by which relations among nations work,” “the nature and governance of the system,” and “the distribution of territory among the states in the system.” If these are the [End Page 32] issues at stake, then systemic theories of hegemonic war and power transition confront the puzzle brought to the fore in a seminal article by James Fearon: what prevents states from striking a bargain that avoids the costs of war? Why can’t states renegotiate the international order as underlying capabilities distributions shift their relative bargaining power?

  Fearon proposed that one answer consistent with strict rational choice assumptions is that such bargains are infeasible when the issue at stake is indivisible and cannot readily be portioned out to each side. Most aspects of a given international order are readily divisible, however, and, as Fearon stressed, “both the intrinsic complexity and richness of most matters over which states negotiate and the availability of linkages and side-payments suggest that intermediate bargains typically will exist.” Thus, most scholars have assumed that the indivisibility problem is trivial, focusing on two other rational choice explanations for bargaining failure: uncertainty and the commitment problem. In the view of many scholars, it is these problems, rather than indivisibility, that likely explain leaders’ inability to avail themselves of such intermediate bargains.

  Yet recent research inspired by … acquiescence entails limited material cost.

   

   

   

  Predictions are possible and accurate – forecasting can provide an accurate basis for scenario planning especially in the case of the topic

  DE MESQUITA  11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18

  Given what we know today … , we progress toward better prediction.

   

   

  The only political solution to terrorism is viewing them as an objective threat entity – any alternative risk paralysis

   

  Ganor ‘2 (Boax Ganor, The International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism, “Defining Terrorism: Is One Man’s Terrorist Another Man’s Freedom Fighter?” , 2002, LEQ)

   

  Most researchers tend to believe … reflecting different levels of illegitimacy.

   

   

  Security is inevitable—rejecting it causes the state to become more interventionist, flipping the impact

  McCormack 10

  [Tara McCormack, ’10, is Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Leicester and has a PhD in International Relations from the University of Westminster. 2010, (Critique, Security and Power: The political limits to emancipatory approaches, page 59-61)]

  The following section will briefly … critical and emancipatory theoretical approaches.

   

   

   

   

  Alt fails—only reinforces imperialist narratives

  Sadiki 11

  [Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses, "The mathematics of the Arab Spring" Jun 6 2011 english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html]

   

  Egypt and Tunisia are now … the purpose of self-empowerment.

   

  They’re going to lose if they go for this K

   

  MACFIE AND LEWIS ’10 – Alexander, British Reader in Middle Eastern studies. He is a published  author who has written widely about the modern history of the near and Middle East including the End of the Ottoman Empire, the Eastern Question, Orientalism, and other related subjects ***AND*** Bernard,  British-American historian, scholar in Oriental studies, and political commentator. He is the Cleveland E. Dodge Professor Emeritus of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. He specializes in the history of Islam and the interaction between Islam and the West, and is especially famous in academic circles for his works on the history of the Ottoman Empire (Alexander Lyon Macfie, Bernard Lewis, “Orientalism: a reader” NYU Press, p. 263-267)

   

  Despite a predominantly unfavorable response among  distorted, that others make of us.12

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Libya aff 2 - USC

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

•  

  Stability Advantage [1]

   

  Constitutional phase weak in Libya now

  Omolesky 11

  [Matthew Omolesky, specialized in European affairs at the Whitehead School of Diplomacy's graduate program, and received his juris doctor from The Ohio State University's Moritz College of Law. Formerly a researcher-in-residence at the Institut za Civilizacijo in Kulturo (Ljubljana), he is presently a researcher for the Laboratoire Europeen d'Anticipation Politique (Paris) and a specialist in international human rights law, “Efforts and Corpses”, The American Spectator, 10-24-2011, http://spectator.org/archives/2011/10/24/efforts-and-corpses/print]

  Yet the experiment in Libyan … is even on the table.

   

  Kills stability ----- Navigating power relations among various factions key

  Snyman and de Kock 11

  [Henning Snyman and Petrus de Kock, former senior researcher at SAIIA's South African Foreign Policy and African Drivers (SAFPAD) Programme and senior researcher with SAIIA's Governance of Africa's Resources Programme, “Post-Gaddafi Libya: Internal, Regional and International Security Implications”, South African Institute of International Affairs, 11-18-2011, http://www.saiia.org.za/feature/post-gaddafi-libya-internal-regional-and-international-security-implications.html]

  The NTC recently elected Abdurrahim … from the Gaddafi armed forces.

   

  Plan key

  Mihalakas 11

  [Nasos Mihalakas, trade policy analyst with the U.S. government for nine years, holds an LLM from University College London, and a JD from the University of Pittsburgh, with a BS in Economics from the University of Illinois. He has worked for both a Congressional Commission advising Congress on the impact of trade with China and for the U.S. Department of Commerce investigating unfair trade practices. Mr. Mihalakas expertise's also include international trade law, international economic law and comparative constitutional law, subjects which he has taught as an adjunct professor during the past couple of year. Currently, he is an associate professor with the University of New York at Tirana, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring”, Federalism Project, 6-7-2011, http://mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51]

   

  When federalism at the national … . The Right Form of Governance

   

  Reverse-causal internal link----- ensures all minorities have a stake in power and the government

  Scott 11

  [Kyle Scott, professor of political science at Duke University, “Day 1 of the Libyan experiment”, Reuters, 10-20-2011, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/10/20/day-1-of-the-libyan-experiment/]

  The U.S. has avoided some of … guarantee liberty and equality Libya.

   

   

  Instability means AQIM will acquire MANPADs

  Wilner 11

  [Alex Wilner, Senior Researcher at ETH-Zurich and a Macdonald-Laurier Institute Fellow, “Halting al Qaeda’s African rebound”, Troy Media, 11-30-2011, http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2011/11/30/halting-al-qaeda%E2%80%99s-african-rebound-part-3/]

  For AQIM, Libya poses a unique … bill the program will cost.

   

  MANPAD attack devastates the U.S. economy

  Ehrenfeld 11

  [Rachel Ehrenfeld, director of New York-based American Center for Democracy and its Economic Warfare Institute, “Libya’s missing missiles: a threat to US airline passengers”, The Christian Science Monitor, 12-9-2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2011/1209/Libya-s-missing-missiles-a-threat-to-US-airline-passengers]

  Are air passengers in the … traffic returned to pre-9/11 levels.

   

  U.S. economy is key to the global economy—it’s sets the trend

  Seeking Alpha 11

  [“Prospects 2012: U.S. Economy Should Continue To Recover Slowly, But Renewed Risk of Recession Remains”, 11-11-2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/307370-prospects-2012-u-s-economy-should-continue-to-recover-slowly-but-risk-of-renewed-recession-remains]

  Although it has been more … major recession in four years.

   

   

  Economic collapse causes nuclear war

  Merlini 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed scenarios for … absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

   

   

  MANPAD proliferation causes Afghan instability

  Drwiega 11

  [Andrew Drwiega, Military Editor, “Libya’s MANPADs Legacy”, Rotor and Wing, 12-6-2011, http://www.aviationtoday.com/rw/training/military/Libyas-MANPADs-Legacy_75305.html]

  It has always been surprising … consequences for the Karzai government.

   

  Afghanistan instability causes nuclear war

  Rubin 11

  [Joel Rubin, Director of Policy and Government Affairs at the Ploughshares Fund, “Nuclear Concerns After the Afghanistan Withdrawal”, Huffington Post, 7-7-2011]

  Yet many of the underlying … that lead to a nuclear exchange.

   

  Leadership Advantage [4]

   

   

  Leading from behind on Libya is feeding a perception of lost credibility

  Wolfowitz 11

  [Paul Wolfowitz, former United States Ambassador to Indonesia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, President of the World Bank, and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, “America’s Opportunity in Libya”, American Enterprise Institute, 11-3-2011]

  But the failure of the U.S. … it. But they face formidable challenges.

   

  Libya is a test case for U.S. … credibility in the Middle East

  Ghitis 11

  [Frida Ghitis, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, World Politics Review, 8-25-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence]

  The future of Libya was … events in other Arab countries.

   

  The plan and immediacy is key—U.S. policy determines broader Middle East credibility

  Sawani 11

  [Dr. Youssef Mohamed Sawani, professor of political science at Tripoli University, “Challenges and Prospects in Post-Gaddafi Libya”, The Morningside Post @ Columbia University, 11-24-2011, http://themorningsidepost.com/2011/11/challenges-and-prospects-in-post-gaddafi-libya/]

  Furthermore, this scenario is unfolding … nationals on an equal footing.

   

  Exporting federalism key to global credibility

  Mihalakas 11

  [Nasos Mihalakas, trade policy analyst with the U.S. government for nine years, holds an LLM from University College London, and a JD from the University of Pittsburgh, with a BS in Economics from the University of Illinois. He has worked for both a Congressional Commission advising Congress on the impact of trade with China and for the U.S. Department of Commerce investigating unfair trade practices. Mr. Mihalakas expertise's also include international trade law, international economic law and comparative constitutional law, subjects which he has taught as an adjunct professor during the past couple of year. Currently, he is an associate professor with the University of New York at Tirana, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring”, Federalism Project, 6-7-2011, http://mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51]

  Identifying the right form of … as a champion of democratic principles.

   

  U.S. influence in the ME key to Egyptian stability

  Schenker 11

  [David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005, he is a highly regarded media commentator and publishes regularly in prominent scholarly journals and newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Weekly Standard, and the New Republic. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf]

  For this reason, each of … region as a whole depends on it.

   

  Prevents nuclear war

  Erickson 11

  [Allan Erickson, The fall of Egypt and the prospect of nuclear war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war]

  Worldwide attention has been focused … nothing we have ever seen.

   

  Perception of weak U.S. influence causes Iranian emboldenment—Libya’s key

  Singh 11

  [Michael Singh, “Leading from behind still isn’t a good idea”, Foreign Policy, 8-31-2011, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/31/leading_from_behind_still_isnt_a_good_idea]

  The American ambivalence toward the … , a development with deeply troubling implications.

   

  Emboldened Iran miscalculates—nuclear war

  Ben-Meir 07

  (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)

  That Iran stands today able … not halting its nuclear program.

   

  Further, declining Middle East credibility spills over to broader credibility – specifically Asia perceives it

  Inboden 11

  [Will Inboden, Senior Advisor at Avascent International, Distinguished Scholar at Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Assistant Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, “The global chess board”, Foreign Policy, 11-21-2011, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/21/the_global_chess_board]

  China, after all, sees its … the same global chess board.

   

  Libya key ----- perception of … leading from behind causes miscalculation

  Nelson and Sulaiman 11

  [Brad Nelson, president and co-founder of the Center for World Conflict and Peace, and Yohanes Sulaiman, vice president and co-founder of the organization is also a lecturer at the Indonesian National Defense Univesity, “America and Asean: It’s Complicated”, Jakarta Globe, 11-14-2011, http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/america-and-asean-its-complicated/478197]

  Yet, what is important here … in the changing geopolitical order.

   

   

  Nuclear war

  Chok 04

  [Goh Chok, Senior Minister of Singapore, International Institute for Strategic Studies, June 4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2005/2004-speech-archive/keynote-address-prime-minister-goh-chok-tong]

  In Asia, as in Europe, … paying for a bid for independence.

   

   

  Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction---multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

  Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

  It is worth first examining … the Pacific Century now unfolding.

   

   

   

  Constitutional Influence Advantage [3]

   

  U.S. constitutional influence declining now----- transnational judicial dialogue is key

  Law and Versteeg 11

  [David S. Law, professor of law and political science at Washington University in St. Louis, and Mila Versteeg, associate professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, “The Declining Influence of the United States Constitution”, NYU Law Review Vol. 87, 2012]

  In 1987, to mark the bicentennial … of speculation and anecdotal impression.

   

  Federalism losing influence now

  Law and Versteeg 11

  [David S. Law, professor of law and political science at Washington University in St. Louis, and Mila Versteeg, associate professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, “The Declining Influence of the United States Constitution”, NYU Law Review Vol. 87, 2012]

  Our analysis thus far offers … stabilized at a mere twelve percent.

   

   

  Heg defense doesn’t apply—constitutional influence is distinct

  Law and Versteeg 11

  [David S. Law, professor of law and political science at Washington University in St. Louis, and Mila Versteeg, associate professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, “The Declining Influence of the United States Constitution”, NYU Law Review Vol. 87, 2012]

  It is plausible to think … the global community at large.

   

  Plan solves the key internal link to constitutional influence

  Suto 11

  [Ryan Suto, President of the Syracuse chapter of the American Constitution Society and will graduate with degrees in law, post-conflict reconstruction, international relations and public relations, “Judicial Diplomacy: The International Impact of the Supreme Court”, Jurist Legal News & Research, 7-15-2011, http://jurist.org/dateline/2011/07/ryan-suto-judicial-diplomacy.php]

  The US has its greatest … doing so in recent sessions.

   

   

  Libya’s key for the US

  Vandewalle 11

  [Dirk Vandewalle, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and author of “A History of Modern Libya”, 3-13-2011, http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-03-13/news/29139700_1_new-libya-khadafy-cyrenaica/2]

  Libya will be thirsty for … - all at the same time.

   

  Increased judicial dialogue from U.S. judges … spillover to broader international law

  Narasimhan 08

  [Angela G. Narasimhan is a Doctoral Candidate in the Department of Political Science at Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, “Domestic Courts, Global Changes: International Influences On The Post-Cold War Supreme Court”, Paper prepared for The Institute for the Study of the Judiciary, Politics, and the Media, Syracuse University, March 18, 2008, http://jpm.syr.edu/pdf/fellowpdfs/15_a.pdf]

  As noted above, existing scholarship … judges in other domestic contexts

   

   

  That shapes global influence ---- spills over

   

  Obiyo ’11 [Chuki Obiyo runs a Finance & Strategy Practice at Corporate Executive Board, Jun-10-11, “Judicial Return on Investment”, http://myafricanplan.com/2011/06/judicial-return-on-investment/, AM]

   

  This paper argues that the … foreign relations as international courts.

   

   

  Judicial influence is critical to effective US leadership on Climate Change

  Long ‘8 [Andrew Long, Assistant Professor of Law, Florida Coastal School of Law, Fall, 2008, 33 Wm. & Mary Envtl. L. & Pol'y Rev. 177, “Symposium Issue 1: Emission Not Accomplished: The Future of Carbon Emissions in a Changing World: Symposium Article: International Consensus and U.S. Climate Change Litigation”, accessed via lexus, AM]

   

  Enhancing U.S. International Leadership In a time … of the international climate regime.

   

  Climate leadership is critical to solve warming – the US is key

  Moon ’10 [Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, 10-25.  NY Times, “We Can Do It,” http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/26/opinion/26iht-edban.html]

   

  Every day, the critical December … and Graham: “Yes, we can.”

   

   

  It’s real and causes extinction

  Deibel ‘7 (Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR at National War College, Foreign Affairs Strategy, “Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today Anthropogenic – caused by CO2”)

   

  Finally, there is one major … of life on this planet. 

   

   

   

  And international law solves your disads- makes global cooperation on every issue possible and solves all heg bad turns

  Harold Hongju Koh, Gerard C. and … nuclear militarization of North Korea.

   

  Increased global cooperation solves all nuclear wars

  Seita ‘97 (B.S., California Institute of Technology; M.B.A., … the risk of nuclear war.

   

   

   

   

   

  Plan

   

  The United States federal judiciary should provide advisory support to Libya for federalist constitutional reform.

   

  Solvency [1]

   

   

   

  Majority of Libyans would say yes to the plan

  Cousins 11

  [Michael Cousins, “Political parties mushroom in Libya”, Arab News, 11-17-2011, http://arabnews.com/lifestyle/offbeat/article534680.ece]

  The only serious difference is … . “No to Tripoli,” they shouted.

   

  And, those who oppose federalism are willing to compromise

  Eljarh 11

  [Mohamed Eljarh, “Perspectives on Federalism in Libya”, Middle East Online, 12-10-2011, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=49426]

  On one hand, people in … Libyan village, town or city.

   

   

   

  Health care thumps all court links

  Kliff ’12 (The health care law, the Supreme Court and the right not to recuse By Sarah Kliff, Sunday, January 1, 1:12 PM © The Washington Post Company Sarah joined the Post in August 2011 from Politico, where she authored Politico Pulse, a daily health policy tipsheet. Prior to Politico, Sarah was a staff writer at Newsweek covering national politics. Her writing has appeared in National Geographic, the BBC, Humanities Magazine and St. Louis Magazine. She is the recipient of fellowships from the Kaiser Family Foundation and University of Southern California Annenberg School of Journalism. Sarah Kliff covers health policy for the Washington Post.

   

  Don Heupel The Year End … of the country’s highest court.

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
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