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Plan: The United States Executive Branch should substantially increase its police training for Egypt
U.S. Egyptian Relations
Advantage 1 is U.S.-Egypt Relations
Previous US aid has strained relations with Egypt because it bypassed the government
Chick 11 – Kristin, Christian Science Monitor
[8/12, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0812/Why-Egypt-is-angry-over-65-million-in-US-democracy-grants]cs
The Egyptian government’s
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was an affront to national sovereignty.
Egyptian relations are crucial for U.S. heg
Aly 6 – Abdel, Director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies and Fellow at the Brookings Institute
[Jan, AN AMBIVALENT ALLIANCE THE FUTURE OF U.S.-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS]cs
Even when Egypt is not an active participant
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—and approved 29,000 overflight requests.
Heg prevents all major wars
Kagan 7 – Robert, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
[“End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10]cn
This is a good thing, and it should continue to
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suit the tastes of enlightenment liberals in the United States and Europe.
Heg is key to prevent nuclear war and extinction – even if multipolarity is inevitable, heg is vital to remain global social order
Barnett 11 – Thomas, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat, worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense
[3/7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads]cs
It is worth first examining the larger picture
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the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.
Plan solves relations – Police training sets the foundation for a relationship with the new Egypt and ensures US heg
Haddad 11 – Ryan, Fellow at the Foreign Policy Association
[3/2, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/03/02/crisis-and-opportunity-next-steps-on-egypt/]cs
With that in mind, the U.S. can and
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Administration should seize.
Stability
Advantage 2 is Stability
FIRST, Instability in Egypt prevents global economic recovery and is driving an impending collapse
Okoronkwo 11 – Ijeoma, Editorial Assistant for the Lawyer’s Chronicle, **quoting El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, and Roubini, economist and professor at the Stern School of Business, NYU
[Acc. Sept 7, 2011, “THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE EGYPTIAN CRISES,” http://thelawyerschronicle.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=119:14-management-a-control-of-oil-and-gas-&catid=36:international-affairs&Itemid=60]cn
Egypt the most populous country in the Arab
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fear has created gitters in the global economy.
Econ decline causes war – multiple reasons; the consensus of up-to-date research agrees
Royal 10 – Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense
[“Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]cn
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
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should be considered ancillary to those views.
Econ collapse causes nuclear World War III
O'Donnell 9 – Sean, writer and Marine Corps Reserve squad leader
[Feb 26, http://www.examiner.com/x- 3108-Baltimore-Republican- Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this- recession-lead-to-World-War- III]cn
Could the current economic crisis affecting this country
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is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.
SECOND, The lack of effective police has overstretched the Egyptian military, empowering militants and collapsing border security with Israel
Neriah 11 – Jacques, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
[8/22, http://jerusalemcenter.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/egypt-and-israel-caught-in-an-al-qaeda-whirlpool/]cs
A clear strategic context explains the recent flare-up between Israel and the Palestinian
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the fundamentalist cells in Sinai and beyond.
Border security is getting worse every day – left unchecked, this will spark full-scale Mid-East war
Rubin 11 – Barry, professor at the Interdisciplinary Center, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center, senior fellow at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Research Director of the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy; editor of the journal Turkish Studies; editor of The Middle East Review of International Affairs; editorial board of Middle East Quarterly
[Aug 18, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/18/news-flash-new-phase-in-war-as-terrorists-cross-egypt-israel-border-many-dead/]cn
News Flash: New Phase in War as
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of the attack will be Egyptian public opinion.
Mid-East war goes global
Primakov 9 – Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation
September, RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL.
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East Problem in the Context of International Relations”
The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms
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does not completely rule out such a possibility.
Mid-East war goes nuclear and risks extinction – asymmetries, non-state actors, Israel preemptive strike and miscalc cause escalation
Russell 9 – James, Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of national Security Affairs
[Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf]cs
Strategic stability in the region is
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substantial risk for the entire world.
THIRD, Police ineffectiveness fuels massive upheavals in Suez – the Canal is on the brink of being shut down
Wardani 11 – Salma El, writer for Al Ahram
[Jul 6, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/0/15643/Egypt/0/Egypts-Suez-canal-workers-defy-their-%E2%80%98arrogant-god.aspx]cn
Now that the sit-in, co
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location that attracts many transiting ships for repairs.
Suez closure triggers foreign intervention – the impact is preemptive nuclear war
Nazemroaya 11 – Mahdi Darius, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization
[Feb 13, http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html]cn
Recall the 1956 Invasion of Egypt?
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America into a global empire through militarism overseas and domestic militarization.
FOURTH, Instability in Egypt is driving huge spikes in global food prices
The Economist 11
[Feb 3, http://www.economist.com/node/18070220]cn
Events in Egypt may turn out to have
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ground to raise cash to assuage uppity populations.
That triggers global demand for African bushmeat, which leads to the global spread of diseases like Ebola
Waterman 8 – Lindsay, Science and technology coordinator for the McGill
[Nov 17, http://www.mcgilldaily.com/article/5904-bushmeat-brings-disease-from-african]cn
In Africa
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more forest meat is being taken than in previous years.
The impact is rapid extinction
Preston 94 – Richard, author, winner of the American Institute of Physics Award and the National Magazine Award
[The Hot Zone, pp. 63-66]cn
And then he would find himself in his
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what it takes AIDS ten years to accomplish.
Experts agree and history proves – Disease spread leads to rapid extinction
Lederberg 92 – Joshua, NOBEL PRIZE WINNER in Medicine
[“In Time of Plague: The History and Social Consequences of Lethal Epidemic Disease” Google Books]cs
At evolutionary equilibrium, we would continue to share the planet with our
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Yes, it can happen.
Solvency
Solvency
U.S. police training is empirically effective and is both necessary and sufficient to solve Egyptian stability, and relations
Akhlaghi 11 – Reza, M.A., M.B.A., senior writer for the Foreign Policy Association, presiding over Middle East issues
[Jun 1, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/06/01/whats-wrong-with-egyptian-security/]cs
With every passing day, security is becoming
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not turn out the way the world is hoping
No DAs – Democracy Assistance now
Baky 11 – Mohamed Abdel, writer for Al Ahram
[Aug 24, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm]cn
The back-and-forth between the two governments started in April when Patterson said in her testimony to the US congress before she officially took up the job in Cairo that the US had given $40 million to Egyptian
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is being distributed directly to NGOs without passing through governmental channels, such as the Ministry of State for International Cooperation.
WGU
