Contention 1: Mixed Signals
The death of Al-Awlaki has given Saleh new life- Protesters fear the US will continue to support Saleh for Counter-terrorism cooperation.
FT 9/30 “Saleh must begin ‘transfer of power’, says US” Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aea3e4a2-eb76-11e0-a576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZTTSPhYt
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh must begin the
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during an attack on his compound in June.
The people of Yemen still view US assistance through a counterterrorism frame
Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>
The United States has little capacity to force
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to be all about drone strikes on terrorists.
Plan
Plan: The United States Federal Government should send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administration Raj Shah to Yemen in order to advise the Yemeni Vice President Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi concerning the transition planning away from President Saleh’s regime and toward transparent and fair elections coupled with a competitive political process. The United States Federal Government should appoint Raj Shah as a special envoy to Yemen with the express purpose of ensuring an immediate transition of power.
Contention 2: The Most Dangerous Game
Saleh is playing a double-game in Yemen – he is systematically enabling Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula while simultaneously using their growing strength as leverage for US support
James Gundun 9/21/11 (Political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “The Plot Thickens in Yemen.” The Palestinian Chronicle. http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17122)
After enabling AQAP’s takeover of Abyan governorate -
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Saleh’s unstable rule over a potentially free Yemen.
Saleh’s unwillingness to control territory in the south makes Yemen a safe-haven for AQAP
Christopher Boucek, September 2009 (Associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Number 102. < http://www.scribd.com/doc/19809794/Yemen-Avoiding-a-Downward-Spiral>
After several serious terrorist attacks in the early
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resurgence in Yemen is increasingly becoming a reality.
AQAP is planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public
Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper
American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the
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succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.
AQAP is planning attacks on US – evidence is from their magazine, not just based on US speculation.
Sharp 11 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf
Overall, AQAP seeks to: • Attack
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before he could install and detonate the explosives.
Successful AQAP attack leads to US retaliation and invasion
Andrew Terrill, January 2011 (Phd. Fellow for the Strategic Studies Institute. Retired U.S. Army Reserve Liutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer, The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security, <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=1040>
The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should
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radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.
Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public
Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]
One of the biggest problems with containment is
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and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.
Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War
Leverett and Leverett, 8/5/11 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>
Today, much of the American media unquestioningly
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, and in too many other journalistic venues.
US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.
Hirsch 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>
If only conventional bombs are used in an
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underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.
US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US
Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)
If the United States adopts a new approach
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which to launch attacks against the United States.
Cooperating with Yemenis is crucial to intelligence gathering about AQAP
Peter Knoetgen 11, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil
While efforts to combat the long-term
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US policy and identify its proper main efforts.
Contention 3: Saudi Arabia
US-Saudi relations low now because of the US’s misguided policies towards the Arab spring.
Bakir 9/25 Ali Huseyin Bakir, USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies “Palestinian Statehood Deepens Saudi-U.S. Split – Analysis” Eurasia Review http://www.eurasiareview.com/25092011-palestinian-statehood-deepens-saudi-u-s-split-analysis/
Taking all this into consideration, the United
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backfired more often than not and spread instability.”
Saudi Arabia just wants a smooth transition
Financial Times 11 “Saudis prepare to abandon Yemen” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb7e6b94-54b6-11e0-b1ed-00144feab49a.html#axzz1UnQo8lFx
Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has
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the support of the revolt against Mr Saleh.
The Saudis are divided – but they all want a stable Yemen
Reuters 9/21/11(Angus McDowall, staff writer, “Analysis: Saudi Arabia hesitant in pressing Saleh to quit” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/us-yemen-saudi-idUSTRE78K3UG20110921)
Analysts say the ruling al-Saud family
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the kingdom's efforts to root out al Qaeda.
The Saudi prioritize stability over everything else – they’ll get on board
Reuters 11 (6/18, Analysis: Yemen crisis puts Saudi in powerbroker's bind, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/18/us-saudi-yemen-idUSTRE75H16T20110618)
Saudi Arabia has emerged as the decisive player
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-Qaeda terror activities sooner rather than later.”
The plan is an act of cooperation that spills over to the rest of the relationship
Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, June 21, 2011, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il
Oftentimes, American officials want to go to
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work toward advancing both countries’ goals and interests.
Instability causes Saudi Arabia to start exporting more oil to China – causes US-China war
Luft 4 [Gal, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security, specializes in strategy, geopolitics, terrorism, Middle East and energy security, Los Angeles Times, “US, China Are on Collision Course Over Oil” http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/oil/2004/0202collision.htm]
Optimists claim that the world oil market will
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a position to halt China's slide into total dependency
The US and China will clash over access to Saudi oil – causes escalatory US-China war.
Alterman and Garver 08 Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the CSIS Middle East Program, and John W. Garver, professor of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East Chapter One – Introduction, October 15, 2008, http://www.susris.com/articles/2008/ioi/081015-triangle-intro.html
In the global hunt for oil, the
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are serious enough that they bear prolonged examination.
Contention 4: Changing the frame
Independent of whether the plan leads to a successful transition – the plan has a lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.
Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>
The United States has little capacity to force
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can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.
Plan solves political factions to assure speedy transition through regional partners, strengthens the oppositions ability to beat AQAP and mitigates the underlying grievances AQAP exploits in Yemen.
Green 9/29 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Yemen, Al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency and stability operations, ‘Yemen’s Saleh Strikes Back’)
Washington can take a variety of immediate steps
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of partnering with international representatives in joint consulates.
