Contention 1 – The Status Quo
Access to information is a key battleground in Syria – citizens and the government are locked in a struggle for greater control
Susannah Vila, April 18, 2011,
“Amid protest, is the Syrian online space redefining internet freedom?”
http://www.movements.org/blog/entry/Syria-Damascus-internet-freedom-protest-online-activism-facebook-twitter/
Assad welcomed freer access to information under the assumption that he could control it…activated citizens unfolds in real time.
The Syrian government is winning – they have mixed denial of access, liberalization, surveillance and counter-propaganda in unique ways to control its people.
Jillian York, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, June 1, 2011 “The Dark Side Of The Syrian Internet” http://www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/06/the-dark-side-of-the-syrian-internet/
In his book, The Net Delusion, released in early 2011…and stifle — the narrative of freedom.
Obama has demanded that Assad leave – but these calls are just rhetorical.
Mihai-Silviu Chirila, 10/8, Metrolic, “The White House Demands Al-Assad To Step Down Now,” http://www.metrolic.com/the-white-house-demands-al-assad-to-step-down-now-177814/
The White House called for the immediate resignation of the Syrian president
…two supporters of the president Assad.
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology to Syrians, including hardware, software and training.
Contention 2 – Syria
We’re on the brink of mass violence now—failure to get Assad out now makes civil war likely
Shadid 11 (Pulitzer Prize winning Middle East Correspondent for the New York Times “Syria’s Protesters, Long Mostly Peaceful, Starting to Resort to Violence” 9/16
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/17/world/middleeast/at-least-six-protesters-killed-in-syria.html?pagewanted=all
Syria’s uprising has become more violent in the country’s most restive regions… “It’s a very concerning development.”
Regime change inevitable, but it will be violent – The defection of the professional classes from supporting the regime undermines its social base, reducing the state to a killing machine.
The Guardian 11 (Salwa Ismail “Bashar al-Assad's fall is inevitable” The Guardian, Friday 26 August 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/26/assad-fall-inevitable-syrians-intervention)
The dramatic developments in Libya are raising comparisons with the uprising in Syria… will to see the end of a despised authoritarian regime.
This will happen in the next six months – Assad will feel the heat of sanctions and economic mismanagement.
Bakri, 10/10 (Nadi Bakri, Sanctions pose growing threat to Syria’s Assad, New York Times, October 10, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/11/world/middleeast/sanctions-pose-growing-threat-to-syrias-president-assad.html)
With Syria’s currency weakening, its recession expanding…Unfortunately, I am very pessimistic.”
Syria has all of the warning signs of genocide – the government could be tipping to commit mass murder against its own people
Genocide Watch, June 7, 2011, Coordinator of the International Alliance to End Genocide, “Genocide and Mass Atrocity Warning: Syria” http://www.genocidewatch.org/syria.html
Since the beginning of March…this is a high risk situation for the residents in targeted cities.
Preventing genocide outweighs – it’s an overriding ethical concern
Harff-Gur, Professor at Northwestern University, 1981 (Humanitarian Intervention as a Remedy for Genocide, pp. 37-41)
Much has been written about the evil of wars their possible prevention. … and enhance their interests and ideals.
We will isolate a few specific impact scenarios
First – Israel
Collapse causes Assad to provoke a war with Israel and Iran – proxies will get drawn in and escalate the conflict – Israel will face a multi-front war which engulfs the region
Ceren, 2011 (Omri Ceren, Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get? Commentary, August 1, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)
But the continued stability of the Syrian regime is only one highly unpleasant option. …and confronting state-backed Arab armies for the first time in decades.
Draws in all nations – causes extinction
Stirling, 2010 (Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm)
This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian Royal Family is always well up-to-date on the intelligence of what is happening … will write about someday, assuming anyone is left to write about it.
It also means Assad will release Syria’s bioweapons as he goes down
Ceren, 2011 (Omri Ceren, Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get? Commentary, August 1, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)
That’s not the worst case scenario, though. … that will not cause Israeli politicians to overreact less.
The US is disastrously underprepared for a bioweapons attack now – Syria is a uniquely unstable area.
Matishak, 10/13 (Martin Matishak, U.S. Receives Poor Marks in Latest Biodefense Report Card, Global Security Newswire, Ocotber 13, 2011, http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20111013_2213.php)
WASHINGTON Despite improvements made over the last decade, … according to Graham, who did not elaborate.
Syrian bioweapons use outweighs nuclear war in magnitude
Dr. Uwe Siemon-Netto, former religious affairs editor of United Press International, September 5, 2011, International journalist for 55 years, Currently directs the League of Faithful Masks and Center for Lutheran Theology and Public Life in Irvine, California. “Saddam’s Bio Arms – Wait Till Syria Falls” http://uwesiemon.blogspot.com/2011/09/saddams-bio-arms-wait-till-syria-falls.html
My intensive research began more than one year before “Curveball’s” defection to Germany… to trivialize this problem into an issue for petty partisan bickering.
Bioweapons use causes extinction
Richard Ochs, BS in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University, with honors, 2002 (BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE IMMEDIATELY ABOLISHED, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, … HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
If Assad releases bioweapons it means he’ll use smallpox – or he’ll give it to terrorists for dispersal.
Jerome R. Corsi, March 5, 2007, WND's senior staff reporter, Corsi is a senior managing director at Gilford Securities. “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran” http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=40459 (Jill Bellamy-Decker currently directs the Public Health Preparedness program for the European Homeland Security Association under the French High Committee for Civil Defense.)
WND asked Bellamy-Decker if the Syrians have any history of having used biological weapons….as long as they are vaccinated. I think it is a real threat."
Smallpox release causes extinction
Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign, Spring 2001 (Swords and Ploughshares, http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/homepage_docs/pubs_docs/S&P_docs/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm)
There are, however…when and if this is achieved.
Second – Saudi-Iran War
Saudi Arabia and Iran will fight over the Syrian transition.
Kamel 8/11 Ayham Kamel is an analyst in Eurasia Group's Middle East practice group. “Saudi Arabia and Iran set to jockey for position in Syria” http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/11/saudi_arabia_and_iran_set_to_jockey_for_position_in_syria
Saudi leaders, meanwhile, are still on the fence about what the kingdom's Syria policy
should be…all eyes are on Ankara to see if Turkey's leaders will be able to convince Assad to accelerate his reform program and resolve the crisis.
Saudi-Iran tensions cause a regional arms race
Spindle and Coker 2011
Bill, Maraget, WSJ, 4-16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_World_LeadStory
"The cold war is a reality," says one senior Saudi official…it could exacerbate what many fear is a looming nuclear arms race in the region.
Middle Eastern arms race goes nuclear.
Cirincione 2007
Joseph, Director of Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress, "Apocalypse When?," November 12th, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=15998, AD 7/7/11
Third is the risk of new nuclear nations… Israel, but four or five. That is a recipe for nuclear war.
Third – Turkey
Syrian violence causes mass refugee flows into Turkey – tensions could erupt into violence at any time – conflict will draw in NATO, Iran, Russia and China into World War III.
Pakalert Press, June 28, 2011 “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”
http://www.pakalertpress.com/2011/06/28/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey/
In recent days, there have been persistent rumors …When it does, let us just hope that World War III does not erupt as a result.
Fourth – US Intervention
Pressure will build on Obama to intervene in Syria – rebels will call for assistance and combination of strategic and humanitarian concerns will prove too great to resist
Robert Dreyfuss, August 29, 2011 Award winning independent journalist & Contributing Editor to the Nation, The Nation, “Applying the Libya 'Model' to Syria and Iran” http://www.thenation.com/blog/163013/applying-libya-model-syria-and-iran?page=full
Muammar Qaddafi is (pretty much) gone, and right on cue there’s increasing talk about applying the Libya “model” to Syria… that the United States cannot allow Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred.
US intervention will ensure Israel is drawn in, collapses US leadership.
Dov Zakheim, former undersecretary of defense, May 12, 2011, The National Interest, “The Nightmare that is a U.S. Attack On Syria” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-nightmare-us-attack-syria-5296
But the price of yet another American military operation in the heart of the Middle East could be astronomical…even as it tries to rein in a defense budget that many perceive to be out of control.
Hegemony keeps the peace around the globe – solve every major impact and the alternative causes major power wars.
Khalilzad, 2011 (Zalmay, former head of policy planning at DOD, LETTERS TO THE EDITOR, The National Interest, February 2, http://nationalinterest.org/letters/follow-the-leader-4817)
Mearsheimer ignores positive outcomes arising from American global leadership in Europe and Asia…while maintaining a grand strategy of American global leadership.
Contention 3 – Solvency
Greater ICT access reduces the scope of violence in Syria. We will identify several specifics reasons
First, Citizen journalism – Individual access to video and news is an essential source for the outside world. Government news bans prevent outside media from showing the world what is happening in Syria.
Ma’an News 11 (“Citizen journalism keeps Syria uprising alive” Ma’an News Agency, Thursday 26/05/2011. Source:
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=391409)
BEIRUT (AFP) Defying a state-imposed media blackout…and fed into international mainstream media outlets."
This social media content is essential deterring atrocities, even if Assad wants to harm his people he will stop because he can’t hide evidence
Nidaa Hassan, The Guardian, June 8, 2011
“Syria: How social media is defending a town from the regime's wrath”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/syria-hide-uprising-internet
The Syrian regime's apparent hesitancy to bear down …and usually uploaded by computer shortly afterwards.
Second – large scale social organization – Assad is using internet monitoring to block protestors from using social media tools to organize – their reluctance to use these tools uniquely hampering large-scale gatherings.
Kendra Srivastava, August 3, 2011, “Syrian Protestors Scared to Use Facebook, Twitter” http://www.mobiledia.com/news/101219.html
Syrian protestors are scared to use Facebook and Twitter… with the aim of preventing people from rallying against him on Facebook and in the streets.
A quick victory by opposition possible if more Syrians take part in the demonstrations – fear of the regime prevents this mobilization which can stop a civil war.
Carnegie Middle East Center 2011 <The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Turmoil in Syria and the Regional Consequences” Tamara Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State Murhaf Jouejati, Professor of Middle East Studies, National Defense University Ammar Abdulhamid, Founder and Director, The Tharwa Foundation Itamar Rabinovich, Charles Bronfman Distinguished Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Paul Salem, Director, Carnegie Middle East Center http://carnegie-mec.org/events/?fa=3267>
Possible Scenarios for Change The panelists agreed that a return to the status quo … But there is still a wall of fear preventing many people from demonstrating, he added.
Third, nonviolent protests – Evidence from across the Arab Spring proves social media activism is critical to preventing mass protests from becoming violent.
Stepanova 11 (Ekaterina, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences. “The Role of Information Communication Technologies in the “Arab Spring”: IMPLICATIONS BEYOND THE REGION.” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 159, May 2011)
If there is a positive pattern to discern in the impact of Internet-based … This pattern is certainly one that merits further empirical and analytical investigation.
Fourth, speed – ICT accelerates social change – the Arab Spring proves that social trends can quickly change and topple governments that seem very secure
Fontaine & Rogers, Center for New American Security, June 2011, Richard Fontaine - Senior Fellow, Will Rogers -Research Associate “Internet Freedom: A Foreign Policy Imperative in the Digital Age” p. 18, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_InternetFreedom_FontaineRogers_0.pdf
In addition to the political and economic effects described above…that had been in power for decades in a matter of weeks. 63
Current US export policy is stifling for Syrian internet users – fear of export controls means companies don’t provide tech to Syria – Syrians can only get pirated versions of software and no access to opensource projects.
Jillian York, June 16, 2010, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, The Guardian, “US gives Iran more net freedom – but what about Syria?” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/jun/16/internet-iran-syria-export-controls
Iran, of course, is an obvious target for these amendments… and what that means for the United States' "brand" of internet freedom.
The status quo’s piecemeal approach means Google, Java, and SoureForge can’t get products into Syria – companies have blocked tools and restricted their services
Jillian York, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, September 26, 2011, “Stop the Piecemeal: Obama Administration Should Fully Free Communications Tech Exports to Syria (& Companies Should Help)” https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2011/09/stop-the-piecemeal-export-approach
EFF has long complained about export restrictions by the …that wants to take these steps but doesn’t have the resources to do it.
