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Observation 1 is the Squo

The Yemeni transition is focused on elite squabbles, ignoring the Houthis and the southern movement- immediate action towards inclusion is key.

FP 11 “A difficult road ahead for Yemen's political transition” Dec 23 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/23/yemens_ongoing_political_transition_and_the_remaining_challenges

The accord is not without critics, or

AND

immediate action be taken to broaden meaningful inclusion.

Thus the Plan

The United States federal government should provide substantial participatory constitutional development assistance to Yemen that focuses on the demands of the Hiraak and Houthi leaders.

Advantage 1 is Civil War

Civil war inevitable unless the government recognizes the Southern issue and demands of the Hiraak.

FP 11 “A House Divided” Nov 28 Foreign Policy http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/28/a_house_divided?page=full

The two parts of the country have irreversibly

AND

uprising has considerably raised the price of inaction.

Scenario 1 is Oil:

Civil War sends oil prices soaring.

Steve LeVine 3/21/11  Foreign Policy, Back to Saudi’s Fault Lines <http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/back_to_saudis_fault_lines

The oil balance is back on precarious footing

AND

oil reserves and production underpin global price stability.

Global oil volatility makes Asian wars inevitable- accesses every impact.

Halloran in 8 Richard Halloran, former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, February 13, 2008 (South China Morning Post, “Oil scarcity paints a bleak picture for Asia,” Lexis)

A fresh assessment of Asia's energy outlook asserts

AND

be the cause of hostilities across the region.

Oil shocks tank the economy.

Rick Newman, 2/18/11 US News and World Report. “How Arab Unrest Could Harm the World Economy.” <http://www.usnews.com/mobile/blogs/flowchart/2011/2/18/how-arab-unrest-could-harm-the-world-economy.html

Oil, however, is a different story

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, it could be a game-changer.

Global nuclear wars.

Harris and Burrows 09 PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) & member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit Mathew, and Jennifer “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf

Of course, the report encompasses more than

AND

a more dog-eat-dog world.

Inclusive government key to solve civil war.

Khaleej Times 11 “Making peace in Yemen” Dec 15 http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2011/December/opinion_December62.xml&section=opinion&col=

He has officially signed away his powers,

AND

calling for in protests the past 11 months.

Scenario 2 is the North:

The Houthi rebels will continue to foment unrest until they are included in the transition- they will continue to expand to exert new pressures on the government.

Carvajal 11 Fernando Carvajal, PhD candidate at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter, conducted research in Yemen since 2000 “Houthi Expansion and Marginalization” Nov 27 http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/wordpress/?p=435

One of the main issues prolonging Yemen’s instability

AND

US and the EU at a critical time.

They will reach out to Iran- escalates the Saudi Iran conflict.

American Spectator 12/27 “The Coming Collapse of Yemen” Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Forum. http://spectator.org/archives/2011/12/27/the-coming-collapse-of-yemen

In fact, arguably more important now is

AND

control over parts of the Red Sea coastline.

The impact is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

NYT 9 “Saudis' Efforts to Swat Rebels From Yemen Risk Inflaming Larger Conflict” Nov 13 lexis

For more than a week, Saudi Arabia

AND

The Iranians will look at it closely.''

Saudi Arabia will seek nuclear weapons.

NYT 11 “Prince Hints Saudi Arabia May Join Nuclear Arms Race” Dec 6 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-may-seek-nuclear-weapons-prince-says.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

A Saudi prince, in a remark designed

AND

weapons,” Prince Turki was quoted as saying.

Extinction

Edelman 11 Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense—AND—Andrew Krepinevich—President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—AND—Evan Montgomery—Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric, The dangers of a nuclear Iran, FA 90;1, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.27-The-Dangers-of-a-Nuclear-Iran.pdf)

There is, however, at least one

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leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

Independently a federal state solves the Houthi’s concerns.

The Daily Star 11 “Salafist, Houthi sectarian rift threatens to engulf fragile state of Yemen” Dec 21 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Dec-21/157464-salafist-houthi-sectarian-rift-threatens-to-engulf-fragile-state-of-yemen.ashx#axzz1idXeh2go

Following his rare meeting with Houthi leaders,

AND

not be limited to the traditional political parties.”

Advantage 2 is Terrorism

Anti-Americanism on the rise because the US is seen as continuing to support Saleh. Continued US silence will push Southerners to Iran. Southern support key to diminish AQAP control in these territories.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

The U.S. increasingly is cast

AND

to them and must be determined through dialogue.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

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which to launch attacks against the United States.

AQAP is planning attacks on US homeland and bases, as stated in their online magazine.

Sharp 11 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf

Overall, AQAP seeks to: • Attack

AND

before he could install and detonate the explosives.

Specifically, they are planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public.

Schmitt and Shanker 8/12 Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

AND

mall, an airport or a subway station

AND

succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public.

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

AND

and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett 11 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” August 5, Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

AND

, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, >

If only conventional bombs are used in an

AND

underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

Observation 2 is Solvency

Federalism will be the only acceptable compromise- including it in the constitution is key.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

To the surprise of its organisers, approximately

AND

and even Southern government employees living in Sanaa.

US key- successful model of federalism, also solves US democratic cred in the region.

Mihalakas 11 Nasos Mihalakas, Assistant Professor of International Trade Law, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring” Foreign Policy Association, June 7 http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/

When federalism at the national level is applied

AND

world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

Participatory constitutional development solves inclusion- Sudan proves.

USAID Report no date “South Sudan” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/sub-saharan_africa/countries/south_sudan/docs/south_sudan_democracy_fs.pdf

SUPPORTING PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT South Sudan has a

AND

with the RoSS will be provided by USAID. 

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Doesn’t solve the aff- Yemenis care more about politics and civil war than counterterrorism- ignoring their calls makes us look out of touch and increases anti-Americanism.

Sofer 6/16 Ken Sofer, Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress “In Yemen, While Americans Focus On Al Qaeda Threat, Yemenis Are Concerned About Access To Water” http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/06/16/246852/yemen-al-qaeda-access-water/

Yemen used to be an afterthought in the

AND

not AQAP, it’s the water, stupid.

Political solution is a pre-requisite to aid.

The National 11 “Yemen economy: Government's new plan neglects economic development” Dec 28 http://www.thenational.ae/thenational/news/world/middle-east/yemen-economy-governments-new-plan-neglects-economic-development

Further IMF assistance has yet to be approved

AND

a delay that Yemen's economy can ill afford.

Saudi influence turns the CP- they’ll favor different factions.

Haykel 06/14 (Bernard, ‘Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Dilemma: How to Manage an Unruly Client State’)

Yet in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has gone

AND

who form a counterweight to the central government).

Yemen will say no.

Haykel 11(Bernard, ‘Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Dilemma: How to Manage an Unruly Client State’ 6/14 )

It will be difficult to balance Saudi interests

AND

confronted with difficult choices and no easy solutions.

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//Aid now – Morocco – Obama was involved

PR Newswire 12-23-11 [“Congress, President Approve Extending U.S. Aid for Morocco Reforms to Western Sahara, Advance U.S. Policy Backing Moroccan Autonomy Solution,” ]

For first time, directs that U.

AND

and improve stability and security across the region."

Massive civil society aid to Pakistan

Business Recorder 11/26 (“USAID launches $45 million project in Sindh,” )

US Agency for International Development (USAID)

AND

$100 million during the next four years.

Fights coming in the new year:

Xinhua News, 1/1/2012 (“Obama Expects Tough Fights for Americans in 2012,”

)

U.S. President Barack Obama on

AND

or-break moment for the middle class."

Senator Graham will push the plan and take the blame

McClatchy 11 “GOP's Sen. Graham works to protect foreign aid” October 24 http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/10/24/128147/gops-sen-graham-works-to-protect.html#ixzz1fo01Yobr

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina,

AND

, but it is something I'm interested in."

1) He’s key to the agenda.

NPR 10 “Sen. Lindsey Graham: Spotlight On A Deal Maker” March 24 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125063664&ft=3&f=1014

In the past year, political controversies as

AND

be selected for the Supreme Court in decades."

Congressional leaders key to the agenda- not political capital- our evidence is comparative.

Andres 10 Gary Andres, The Weekly Standard, 2010. “Obama and Legislative Power,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-and-legislative-power

But as Texas A&M professor George

AND

ultimately help Democrats maintain their majority in Congress.

Political Capital Bad

A) Polarizes the debate – disengagement solves best

Bouie 11 Janelle Bouie, The American Prospect, 1/18/2011. “Taxes and Presidential Leadership,” http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=01&year=2011&base_name=taxes_and_presidential_leaders

I sympathize with Sullivan, but I'm not

AND

if the president stays out of the conversation.

B) Alienates the GOP and stalls the agenda

Klein 11 Ezra Klein, Washington Post, 3/21/2011. “Will Obama help or hurt deficit negotiations?” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/would-obama-help-or-hurt-deficit-negotiations/2011/03/18/ABab9a8_blog.html

What the Gang of 64 asked from the

AND

media then covers — is not necessarily helpful.

Plan won’t spend money

McInerney 11 Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, Democracy, governance, and human rights in the middle east, July

Over the past few years, Yemen has

AND

months ahead will drive the strategy moving forward.

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//They want a stable Yemen.

Reuters 11(Angus McDowall, staff writer, “Analysis: Saudi Arabia hesitant in pressing Saleh to quit” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/us-yemen-saudi-idUSTRE78K3UG20110921)

Analysts say the ruling al-Saud family

AND

the kingdom's efforts to root out al Qaeda.

GCC deal proves their DA is non-UQ- Saudi forged the GCC deal which put Yemen on a path to a democratic transition- you should be skeptical of their generic democracy assistance links because Saudi already pushed for a democratic transition in Yemen.

Sharqieh 11 Ibrahim Sharqieh is a foreign-policy fellow at the Brookings Institution and deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center. He is an expert in mediation and conflict resolution with a PhD from George Mason University’s School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution. “Will Yemen's Peace Agreement Hold?” The National Interest December 14 http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/will-yemens-peace-agreement-hold-6238

The signing of the agreement signifies a key

AND

others in the EU, UK and UN.

Case turns the DA- AQAP attack leads to US invasion of Yemen.

SSI 11 (Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, February, “The conflict in Yemen and US National Security”, )

The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should

AND

radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.

Turn- civil war worse for Saudi Arabia and Gulf States- makes your impacts inevitable.

Carvajal 11 Fernando Carvajal, PhD candidate at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter, conducted research in Yemen since 2000 “What Saudi Arabia wants” October 14 http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/wordpress/?p=411

On the other hand, a weak Yemen

AND

could fill the power vacuum after the Ottomans.

Weapons deal overwhelms the link.

NYT 11 “With $30 Billion Arms Deal, U.S. Bolsters Saudi Ties” Dec 29 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/world/middleeast/with-30-billion-arms-deal-united-states-bolsters-ties-to-saudi-arabia.html?_r=1

Fortifying one of its key allies in the

AND

agree on their common interests,” he said.

Saudi Arabia would support federalism.

Phillips 11 Sarah Phillips (2011): Chapter Four: External geopolitical actors, Adelphi Series, 51:420, 75-86

It is widely held that factions within the

AND

would be paid instead to his sons.8

They want stability even if it means democracy.

VOA 9/3 “Saudis Worried About Instability in Yemen” http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Saudis-Worried-About-Instability-in-Yemen-131014973.html

Few nations are more worried about the potential

AND

some of the alternatives would be far worse.

Relations resilient – security and energy interests trump democracy rhetoric

Teitelbaum in 11 Joshua senior lecturer in Middle Eastern History, and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, at Bar-Ilan University, 7-17-2011, “Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives.html

So what’s going on here? Basically, the Saudis are upset about the U.S. handling of the Arab unrest,

and the lack of support for the Saudi

AND

by some Saudi officials.Feb.18'11 )

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//Squo solves- US consulting with Turkey about Syria which they care more about.

Zaman 8/19 “US officials: US-Turkey partnership on Syria extremely important” http://www.todayszaman.com/news-254326-us-officials-us-turkey-partnership-on-syria-extremely-important.html

Senior officials from the US have emphasized the

AND

regards to the developments in the Syrian uprising.

US model comparatively better.

Mallat 3 Chibli (Licence and Maitrise, Saint Joseph's University; L.L.M., Georgetown University; Ph.D., University of London. EU Jean Monnet Chair in European Law, St. Joseph's University, Beirut, Lebanon (2001-present); Director, Centre for the Study of the European Union, St. Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon (2000-present)) “Federalism in the Middle East and Europe” lexis

[*3]  It is against this complex

AND

sought to forge ahead on the international scene.

Turkey’s model will fail

Gilbo, 9/13/11 (Prof. Eytan Gilbo [an expert on US foreign policy, is Director of the School of Communication and a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, both at Bar-Ilan University] “Needed: A Leader in the White House” BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 149, September 13, 2011 http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/docs/perspectives149.pdf)

Over the last year, Turkey has become

AND

still perceives Erdogan as a   moderate Islamic partner.

Pisses off Saudi Arabia, which kills Turkey cred.

Heydarian 9/23 Richard Javad Heydarian is a foreign affairs analyst based in Manila “Arab Spring, Turkish Harvest – Analysis” Eurasia Review http://www.eurasiareview.com/23092011-arab-spring-turkish-harvest-analysis/

Turkey’s momentous resurgence is also a function of

AND

coverage of protests in countries such as Bahrain.

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//K is theoretically illegit – reason to reject the arg and the team, or let us have our aff - 

A] Unpredictable – we can’t be prepared to defend every word or rep in our 1AC – predictability is key to debates with clash and education. And rez basis is key –

Words and Phrases 1964 Permanent Edition

Definition of the word “resolve,” given by Webster is “to express an opinion or determination by resolution or vote; as ‘it was resolved by the legislature;” It is of similar force to the word “enact,” which is defined by Bouvier as meaning “to establish by law”.

B] Aff choice – we get the first speech and burden of T, so we get to choose the framework for the debate – key to fairness and reciprocity – switch side debate solves.

C] Coopts aff ground - a new framework or roll of the ballot allows them to ignore the entire 1AC, coopting 2AC offense.

This framework’s essential to politically relevant and impactful solutions

McClean 01(MCCLEAN, SOCIETY FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF AMERICAN PHILOSOPHY – GRADUATE AND PHILOSOPHER – NYU, 1, DAVID E., “THE CULTURAL LEFT AND THE LIMITS OF SOCIAL HOPE”, http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/2001%20Conference/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm)

Yet for some reason, at least partially

AND

for the so-called "managerial class."

EVEN IF THE PLAN DOESN’T PASS, THERE IS VALUE IN OUR PROJECT. Exposing ourselves to different modes of understanding is critical to cultivating sympathy for different ways of life

JENNI, Pf Philosophy at Redlands, 01                                   (Kathie, Social Theory and Practice, July v27 i3 p437)

The claim on behalf of academics' value to

AND

essential for growth in moral judgment.(9)

In-round-politics-FIRST is selfish.  The question should be how to mobilize large groups of people and ensure the left survives. 

Grossberg, 92 [Lawrence, “Professor of Communications Studies at the University of North Carolina, We Gotta Get Out of This Place: Popular Conservatism and Postmodern Culture, 1992 p. 388-390]

If the Left can give up its demand

AND

in order to win a victory somewhere else.

ETHICS HAVE TO BE FEASIBLE

Demenchonok 9, Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, (Edward, The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68.1 (Jan): p9)

However, the further development of an ethical

AND

, or even should, be taken seriously.

The neg has predecided that the world only makes sense according to their vision of ethics.  This turns your k.

Lefort 2 Claude Director of Studies Emeritus at the école des Hautes études en Sciences Sociales (Social Research, An International Quarterly of Social Sciences Volume 69, Number 2 / Summer, p. 621 – 656)

 Let us briefly recall the three characteristics

AND

of the "great men" in History.

EVERYTHING’S NOT A SIMULATION.  Your critique is a tired re-affirmation that conflates all military epistemologies into more simulations

MANN, Department of English - Pomona College, 96                      (Paul, PMC 6.2)

Much of what we will be given to

AND

for warfare that war alone cannot fully satisfy.

State-centered politics is key – the alt cedes the political to nationalist and protectionist movements

Schmidt in 8 [Johannes Dragsbaek, Associate Professor, Global  Development Studies, Aalborg University, “The Collapse of Neoliberal Globalization and the   Emergence of New Visions “, paper for the International Workshop “Asserting Democracy, Reclaiming Human Rights”, Asia-Europe Caucus on Democracy and Human Rights,  6-8 June]

The unstoppable sweep of globalization has recently declined

AND

sector which was unthinkable just a year ago.

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//THE IDEA THAT SECURITY LOGICS ARE INHERENTLY GENDERED IGNORE THE WAY SECURITY CAN BE USED PRODUCTIVELY BY MARGINAL GROUPS

MCDONALD, University of Warwick, UK, 08

(Matt, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 14(4): 563–587)

In perhaps the clearest statement of this limitation

AND

on ‘contexts’ noted in the previous section.

1) Perm: do both

2) EU Can’t Solve the aff

A) Doesn’t solve the aff- terrorists are motivated by anti-American sentiments – it’s not just about instilling political stability but appeasing Yemenis via legitimate U.S. involvement

B) US model of federalism is critical to good governance and changes in the Arab Spring countries- that’s Mihalakas. US model comparatively better than EU.

Mallat 3 Chibli (Licence and Maitrise, Saint Joseph's University; L.L.M., Georgetown University; Ph.D., University of London. EU Jean Monnet Chair in European Law, St. Joseph's University, Beirut, Lebanon (2001-present); Director, Centre for the Study of the European Union, St. Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon (2000-present)) “Federalism in the Middle East and Europe” lexis

[*3]  It is against this complex

AND

sought to forge ahead on the international scene.

3) Can’t solve Federalism- EU federalism being hotly debated due to euro zone crisis.

NYT 11/9 “Support for Euro Risks Splitting European Union” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/world/europe/support-for-euro-risks-splitting-eu.html

The E.U. used to be

AND

are obliged to join the single currency eventually.

A) EU institutional structures guarantee that arguments over federalism results in ad hoc approaches that destroy the model

Richard Youngs October 2001, (Democracy Promotion: the Case of European Union Strategy, CEPS WORKING DOCUMENT NO. 167, OCTOBER 2001)

Compounding these limitations, EU institutional structures were

AND

the institutional structures pertinent to EU democracy assistance.

B) This ensures their aid on the ground would be fragmented and ineffective.

Youngs 8 (Richard, Director of the democratization program at FRIDE and lecturer at the University of Warwick in the UK, ‘Trends in Democracy Assistance What Has Europe Been Doing?’, July 21)

 European contributions to democratic reform, which

AND

this component of European policy requires urgent attention.

4) EU has no political influence in Yemen and no link to soft power.

Luijken 11 (Thomas, ‘Internal Divisions and Regional Dimensions of the Crisis in Yemen’, July 19, The Polish Institute of International Affairs’)

The EU has only limited influence over the

AND

. in channelling economic assistance to the country.

The impact is the South won’t trust them to lead a dialogue because they have no leverage over the government to make talks inclusive.

5) Europe bad federalism model- states are too autonomous.

McCormick 07 (John S., Ph.D., University of Iowa, is a professor of history at Salt Lake Community College, “The European Union: Politics and Policies” pg. 28-29)

Federalism is relatively poorly understood by most Europeans

AND

their own armies, and go to war.

6) Empirically won’t have enough influence to push political reforms- ie get Saleh out of power or resolve the Southern issue.

Simantou 11 (Alec, Graduate Student at George Mason University’s School of Public Policy and will be beginning a research assistantship at the Heinrich Boll Foundation’s Washington Office focusing on International Governance and Democracy, ‘Europe & the Arab Spring: EU Policy for Mediterranean Arab States(Part 1 of 3), July 13)

The European Parliament report also demonstrates that in

AND

are not enough to trigger substantive political reform.

Observation 1 is the Squo

The Yemeni transition is focused on elite squabbles, ignoring the Houthis and the southern movement- immediate action towards inclusion is key.

FP 11 “A difficult road ahead for Yemen's political transition” Dec 23 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/23/yemens_ongoing_political_transition_and_the_remaining_challenges

The accord is not without critics, or

AND

immediate action be taken to broaden meaningful inclusion.

Disads non u q- Obama already supported Yemen transition, but it’s not targeted enough.

Kaufman 11 Stephen Kaufman, Staffwriter “Yemen Agreement “Important Step Forward” for Political Transition” US Embassy November 23 http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2011/11/20111123153612nehpets0.4383966.html#ixzz1gxlZzpTM”

The signing of a Yemeni political agreement brokered

AND

including holding credible presidential elections within 90 days.

Thus the Plan

The United States federal government should provide substantial participatory constitutional development assistance to Yemen to include the leaders of the Houthis and Southern Movement.

Advantage 1 is Civil War

Civil war inevitable unless the government recognizes the Southern issue and demands of the Hiraak.

FP 11 “A House Divided” Nov 28 Foreign Policy http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/28/a_house_divided?page=full

The two parts of the country have irreversibly

AND

uprising has considerably raised the price of inaction.

Scenario 1 is Oil:

Civil war draws in Saudi Arabia and Iran, threatening shipping lanes & massive instability

Jonathan Ruhe, 6/9/11 The National Interest, “The Horror of a Post-Saleh Yemen” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-horror-post-saleh-yemen-5435?page=1

The struggle for the regime’s future has shifted

AND

. The United States had best prepare itself.

This sends oil prices soaring

Steve LeVine 3/21/11  Foreign Policy, Back to Saudi’s Fault Lines <http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/back_to_saudis_fault_lines

The oil balance is back on precarious footing

AND

oil reserves and production underpin global price stability.

Global oil volatility makes Asian wars inevitable- accesses every impact.

Halloran in 8 Richard Halloran, former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, February 13, 2008 (South China Morning Post, “Oil scarcity paints a bleak picture for Asia,” Lexis)

A fresh assessment of Asia's energy outlook asserts

AND

be the cause of hostilities across the region.

Scenario 2 is the North:

The Houthi rebels will continue to foment unrest until they are included in the transition- they will continue to expand to exert new pressures on the government.

Carvajal 11 Fernando Carvajal, PhD candidate at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter, conducted research in Yemen since 2000 “Houthi Expansion and Marginalization” Nov 27 http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/wordpress/?p=435

One of the main issues prolonging Yemen’s instability

AND

US and the EU at a critical time.

They will reach out to Iran- escalates the Saudi Iran conflict.

American Spectator 12/27 “The Coming Collapse of Yemen” Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Forum. http://spectator.org/archives/2011/12/27/the-coming-collapse-of-yemen

In fact, arguably more important now is

AND

control over parts of the Red Sea coastline.

Pushes tensions over the edge- Saudi views relations with Iran as zero-sum

Boucek 2011

Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program focusing on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa, and a leading authority on disengagement and rehabilitation programs for Islamist militants and extremists and a recognized expert on terrorism, security, and stability issues in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, June 21, 2011 (U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring, Carnegie Endowment, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=44722&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeacePublications+%28DC+-+Publications%29#change)

Regionally, Saudi foreign policy is guided in

AND

is only separated by Saudi Arabia by kilometers.

The impact is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

NYT 9 “Saudis' Efforts to Swat Rebels From Yemen Risk Inflaming Larger Conflict” Nov 13 lexis

For more than a week, Saudi Arabia

AND

The Iranians will look at it closely.''

They’ll seek nukes from Pakistan.

Siddiqui 2011

Farrukh Siddiqui, Riyadh will build nuclear weapons if Iran gets them, Saudi prince warns, June 30, 2011, http://www.stateofpakistan.org/riyadh-will-build-nuclear-weapons-if-iran-gets-them-saudi-prince-warns

The growing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran

AND

Arabia may seek to capitalise on its investment.

Extinction

Edelman 11 Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Former Undersecretary for Defense—AND—Andrew Krepinevich—President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments—AND—Evan Montgomery—Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric, The dangers of a nuclear Iran, FA 90;1, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/2010.12.27-The-Dangers-of-a-Nuclear-Iran.pdf)

There is, however, at least one

AND

leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

Independently a federal state solves the Houthi’s concerns.

The Daily Star 11 “Salafist, Houthi sectarian rift threatens to engulf fragile state of Yemen” Dec 21 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Dec-21/157464-salafist-houthi-sectarian-rift-threatens-to-engulf-fragile-state-of-yemen.ashx#axzz1idXeh2go

Following his rare meeting with Houthi leaders,

AND

not be limited to the traditional political parties.”

Advantage 2 is Terrorism

Anti-Americanism on the rise because the US is seen as continuing to support Saleh. Continued US silence will push Southerners to Iran. Southern support key to diminish AQAP control in these territories.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

The U.S. increasingly is cast

AND

to them and must be determined through dialogue.

US cooperation with the government key to counterterrorism operations.

Zimmerman 11 Katherine Zimmerman is an Analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. Her work at AEI has focused on al Qaeda and its associated movements in the Gulf of Aden. Katherine specializes in the Yemen-based group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Somalia’s al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab. She has conducted briefings for congressional staffers and published analyses of U.S. national security interests in Yemen and Somalia. Katherine graduated with distinction from Yale University with a B.A. in Political Science and Modern Middle East Studies. “Scenario 1: Peaceful transition of power from Saleh to some successor(s).” AEI Critical Threats, April 11, 2011, http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimates-scenario-1

The U.S. will likely seek

AND

in Yemen such as the U.K.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

AND

which to launch attacks against the United States.

The South is key – AQAP is using its foothold there to establish its reach

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

Added to the challenges facing the South is

AND

authority in the South to expand their reach.

AQAP is planning attacks on US homeland and bases, as stated in their online magazine.

Sharp 11 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf

Overall, AQAP seeks to: • Attack

AND

before he could install and detonate the explosives.

Specifically, they are planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public.

Schmitt and Shanker 8/12 Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

AND

succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public.

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

AND

and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett 11 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” August 5, Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

AND

, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>

If only conventional bombs are used in an

AND

underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

War with Iran draws in China.

Robertson 11 Matthew, Staff, “Chinese Admiral Threatens World War to Protect Iran” The Epoch Times Dec 22 http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinese-admiral-threatens-world-war-to-protect-iran-154434.html

As the United States and other nations grapple

AND

of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”

Observation 2 is Solvency

Federalism will be the only acceptable compromise- including it in the constitution is key.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

To the surprise of its organisers, approximately

AND

and even Southern government employees living in Sanaa.

US key- successful model of federalism.

Mihalakas 11 Nasos Mihalakas, Assistant Professor of International Trade Law, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring” Foreign Policy Association, June 7 http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/

When federalism at the national level is applied

AND

world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

Participatory constitutional development solves inclusion- Sudan proves.

USAID Report no date “South Sudan” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/sub-saharan_africa/countries/south_sudan/docs/south_sudan_democracy_fs.pdf

SUPPORTING PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT South Sudan has a

AND

with the RoSS will be provided by USAID. 

1) Counter-interpretation: Democracy assistance must be positive support for the explicit purpose of democracy

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8

[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

AND

implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

Federalism is democracy.

Lane, Jan-erik and Ersson, Svante (2005)' Department of Political Science, University of Geneva, Switzerland b Department of Political Science, Umeå University, Sweden;  The riddle of federalism: does federalism impact on democracy?',Democratization,12:2,163 — 182; http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13510340500069220 

There are also other scholars who argue that

AND

pluralism and decentralization that connect federalism and democracy.

1) Prefer our interp

A) intent to define -- this makes it the most predictable interpretation for both sides which is the only impact to limits.

B) It’s limited enough – it excludes economic assistance, sanctions, debt relief , or any other effectually topical aff.

C) Aff ground – this is the only interpretation tailored for countries with different levels of democratization

2) Their interpretation is arbitrary and over-limiting

A) limits out technical assistance aff’s like advice, election monitoring, rule of law assistant affs which are core of the topic.

B) Dialogue is a pre-requisite to all forms of democracy assistance- and it's the only thing we can do in Yemen because Saleh won’t reform and there’s no other way to get assistance on the ground- Yemen affs are key to discussing transition and federalism

C) Err aff on topicality- few solvency advocates and lots of neg generics means its too difficult to find a good aff on the topic- breadth of affs with good clash is better for debate

3) Good is good enough – Competing interpretation leads to a race to the bottom for the most limits. If you want to vote for the most limiting interpretation vote for us because we are the only topical case.

1. Our aff is still relevant- you can’t wish away the aff just because you say things like method or representations- Its anti-debate and anti-educational. We should get the impacts of the aff- your links are predicated off our consequences. Its tautological for us not to get those same consequences.

2. you shouldn’t privilege the politics of the people in this debate room- it’s selfish

DEBATE-SPACE-POLITICS IS TOO INSULAR

EVEN IF THE PLAN DOESN’T PASS, THERE IS VALUE IN OUR PROJECT. Exposing ourselves to different modes of understanding is critical to cultivating sympathy for different ways of life

JENNI, Pf Philosophy at Redlands, 01                                   (Kathie, Social Theory and Practice, July v27 i3 p437)

The claim on behalf of academics' value to

AND

then, is indirect and yet potentially immense.

Empirical work supports this optimistic assessment of higher education's value, noting the role it can play in moral development. Eamonn Callan, for example, notes the importance of exposing students to different modes of moral understanding and thus cultivating "imaginative sympathy for alien ways of life."(8) Others observe that liberal arts education provides a natural setting for "the discomfiture that comes with experiences that do not fit one's earlier conceptions," which seems essential for growth in moral judgment.(9)

In-round-politics-FIRST is selfish.  The question should be how to mobilize large groups of people and ensure the left survives. 

Grossberg, 92 [Lawrence, “Professor of Communications Studies at the University of North Carolina, We Gotta Get Out of This Place: Popular Conservatism and Postmodern Culture, 1992 p. 388-390]

If the Left can give up its demand

AND

in order to win a victory somewhere else.

3.

ETHICS HAVE TO BE FEASIBLE

Demenchonok 9, Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, (Edward, The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68.1 (Jan): p9)

However, the further development of an ethical

AND

, or even should, be taken seriously.

4. Even if they win we have a poor method, it doesn’t take out our entire aff- we still solve instability and terrorism in Yemen which outweighs any impacts to a slightly tainted method.

Knowledge must be judged by its policy relevance

Lepgold and Nincic 2K1 (Joesph, associate professor of Government at Georgetown and Miroslav professor of Poly Sci at UC-Davis, Beyond the Ivory Tower: International Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy Relevance pg. 6-7) (SIR = Scholastic International Relations, the term for thinkers who discuss the theory behind real world processes)

This book stems from a sense of unease

AND

to work that is both useful and sound.

Epistemological and Methodological focus is not predictive – Only politically relevant IR can provide critical insight into future contingencies and grasp the political underpinnings of critiques

Lepgold and Nincic 2K1 (Joesph, associate professor of Government at Georgetown and Miroslav professor of Poly Sci at UC-Davis, Beyond the Ivory Tower: International Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy Relevance pg. 6-7) (SIR = Scholastic International Relations, the term for thinkers who discuss the theory behind real world processes)

As in other fields driven by a concern

AND

policy-relevance was taken for so long.

Capitalism is inevitable – even with financial crisis, free-market capitalism will survive.  

The Australian, 09 (Staff Writer, “The Case for Capitalism,” 6-25-2009, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25685611-16382,00.html)

THE way Australians are selling out of shares

AND

this is very different from constraining capitalism itself.

Leftist revolutions have produced some of the worst human suffering in history.

Peretz, 03 (Martin, Former Assistant Professor at Harvard, Editor-in Chief of The New Republic, "Manque", The New Republic, February 3, lexis)

What is the grand "progressive" vision

AND

body, and greater prisons of the soul.

Alternatives to capitalism initiated Yemen’s calls for unity in the first place- creates more wars.

FP 11 “A House Divided” Nov 28 Foreign Policy http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/28/a_house_divided?page=full

In reality, Yemen's 21 years of existence

AND

northern and eastern regions remain under tribal control.

Exposure is not enough.  It’s about influencing state policy.

Bojadžijev AND Karakayalı 10 (Manuela, Professor at the Institute for European Ethnology at the Humboldt University of Berlin; Serhat, teaches at the University of Halle, e- flux 06/10)

Even if one rejects the traditional conception of

AND

it does not always want to admit it.

The K ignores that the authoritarianism of the squo is worse. 

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

Current international political trends are complex and still

AND

has been ‘the rediscovery of the state’.

Oppressive economic policies exist in Yemen because of the lack of democracy- worse than all other concerns.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

Although terrorism, provincial revolts, and unrest

AND

prices are 60% less than international averages.

B. EMPIRICALLY, ANTI-CAPITALIST RESISTANCE DRIVES CAPITALISM TO EXPAND

DUNN, Institute for Research on World-Systems, UC-Riverside, 05

(Christopher Chase, journal of world-systems research, xi, 2, december)

Local and regional protectionism is indeed an important

AND

to overcome the constraints that political resistance produces.

C. Transition wars

Dunn in 5 <Institute for Research on World-Systems, UC-Riverside, (Christopher Chase, journal of world-systems research, xi, 2, December>

Here is an example of this sort of

AND

destroy itself and then pick up the pieces.

Democracy key to resist global capitalism through social empowerment.

Robinson 5 William I, American professor of sociology at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The Battle for Global Civil Society, 6/13, http://www.iefd.org/articles/global_civil_society.php

The promotion of democracy is inherently not imperialist

AND

by U.S. and transnational elites.

Capitalism is key to preserve the environment

Taylor 2003 (Jerry, director of natural resources studies at Cato, “The Real Axis of Evil,” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3073)

Indeed, we wouldn't even have environmentalists in

AND

desires for resource conservation and preservation can be realized

We control the uniqueness – poverty is massively decreasing because of capitalism

NIC, 08 (National Intelligence Council, U.S. National Intelligence Agency Mid-Term and Long-Term Thinking, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” Chapter 1: A Globalizing Economy, pg. 8)

We are witnessing an unprecedented moment in human

AND

lack the fundamentals for entering the globalization game. 

Capitalism prevents conflict

Gartzke 7- PhD- associate professor of political science at UC San Diego

(Erik, “The Capitalist Peace,” 1/5/07, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/publications/gartzke_ajps_07.pdf)

While policy differences or resource competition can generate

AND

nonintegrated target does not suffer (Gartzke 2006b).

Saudis are divided- they will say no

McDowall 09/22 (‘Saudi Arabia hesitant in pressing Saleh to quit’, http://allafrica.com/stories/201109230107.html)

Saudi Arabia, the regional power with the

AND

in 2009 briefly spilled over into the kingdom.

Saudi influence turns the CP- they’ll favor different factions.

Haykel 06/14 (Bernard, ‘Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Dilemma: How to Manage an Unruly Client State’)

Yet in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has gone

AND

who form a counterweight to the central government).

Yemen will say no.

Haykel 11(Bernard, ‘Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Dilemma: How to Manage an Unruly Client State’ 6/14 )

It will be difficult to balance Saudi interests

AND

confronted with difficult choices and no easy solutions.

No Link and Turn – our aff does not subscribe to the dominant orientalist narrative of Yemen. The people are demanding for US support

Abubakr Al-Shamahi,  September 20. 2011 (British-Yemeni freelance journalist and is the editor of Comment Middle East ,a platform for young people to write about the region. “Explaining the Silence on Yemen.” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011920203128240575.html)

Death has returned to the streets of Sanaa

AND

, if they are rejected by the world.

2. Their K creates a reverse form of Orientalism where the West is turned into a scapegoat for the problems in the Arab world and silences legitimate scholars.

Teitelbaum & Litvak, 6 /Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv University & Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies//Joshua & Meir, “STUDENTS, TEACHERS, AND EDWARD SAID: TAKING STOCK OF ORIENTALISM”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol 10 no. 10, March/

Another problem, noticed mostly by Said's Arab

AND

or an agent of American imperialism.[74]

3. Criticizing the relevance of the law and political freedoms from afar is easy to do when you’re already protected by the law.  Many activists in Arab countries actually want the protection of the law. Your authors don’t have a clue what’s happening on the ground.

Kacem 11 M.B., French-Tunisian writer and philosopher. A Tunisian Renaissance.<http://www.lacan.com/thesymptom/?page_id=1046>

As a Tunisian, I was already tired

AND

now elsewhere, claim to see Islamism everywhere.

Democratization theory is under-going massive self-reflection.  The decision to throw it out as Western imposition is a worse form of imperialism at a critical time

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

It is self-evident that liberal democracy

AND

‘liberal’ tenets – and thus contradicting themselves.

4. Permuation – do the plan and any part of the alternative that isn’t exclusive.

And, the perm solves -- Supporting Arab participation in mimicry and solidarity is the best way to destabilize normalized knowledge and disciplinary power and its strategy for combating imperialism.

Bilgin, 8 /Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey/     

/Pinar, “Thinking past 'Western' IR?”, Third World Quarterly, Volume 29, Issue 1 February pp. 5 – 23/

For those who remain curious about the emergence

AND

many forms - including a search for 'similarity'.

5. Insert Miniframework argument

6. Discourse doesn't construct reality

Patomaki, 2000. (Heikki, Research Director, Network Institute for Global Democratization, and Colin Wright, Lecturer in International Politics, University of Wales. International Studies Quarterly, June, Vol. 44, Issue 2, p. 213)

On the boundary of negativity, in terms

AND

discourse or not, are still referred to.

Observation 1 is Yemen

The Yemeni transition is focused on elite squabbles, ignoring the Houthis and the southern movement- immediate action towards inclusion is key.

FP 11 “A difficult road ahead for Yemen's political transition” Dec 23 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/23/yemens_ongoing_political_transition_and_the_remaining_challenges

The accord is not without critics, or

AND

immediate action be taken to broaden meaningful inclusion.

The US is currently supporting Saleh’s immunity calls and ignoring the calls of the protestors- this is the current conception of democracy in Yemen.

The Guardian 1/10 “United States defends immunity law for Yemeni president Saleh” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/10/us-backs-yemen-immunity-for-saleh

The United States has defended a Yemeni draft

AND

of protesters have been killed during the uprising.

The central government continues to ignore the calls of the minorities in the South- absent an inclusive political process the South will act on calls to secede from the North- the impact is civil war, violence, and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

FP 11 “A House Divided” Nov 28 Foreign Policy http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/28/a_house_divided?page=full

The two parts of the country have irreversibly

AND

uprising has considerably raised the price of inaction.

The Houthi rebels in the North want to be included in the political transition, but the new government continues to ignore their calls.

Carvajal 11 Fernando Carvajal, PhD candidate at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter, conducted research in Yemen since 2000 “Houthi Expansion and Marginalization” Nov 27 http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/wordpress/?p=435

One of the main issues prolonging Yemen’s instability

AND

US and the EU at a critical time.

Yemen is currently facing a humanitarian crisis on a massive scale- violence and political upheaval has already displaced 60,000 Yemenis, most of the population is experiencing starvation, and disease epidemics are spreading to uncontrollable levels. Fuel, water, and food is increasingly scarce, and protestors are waiting for a political solution.

Steil 11 Jennifer is the former editor of the Sana'a-based newspaper the Yemen Observer, World Policy Journal, Volume 28, Number 3, Fall 2011

The problem is about to get much worse

AND

to call the alarm bell," says Cappelaere.

Participatory constitutional development increases inclusion.

USAID Report no date “South Sudan” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/sub-saharan_africa/countries/south_sudan/docs/south_sudan_democracy_fs.pdf

SUPPORTING PARTICIPATORY CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT South Sudan has a

AND

with the RoSS will be provided by USAID. 

Federalism will be the only acceptable compromise- including it in the constitution is key.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

To the surprise of its organisers, approximately

AND

and even Southern government employees living in Sanaa.

Thus the Plan

The United States federal government should provide substantial participatory constitutional development assistance to Yemen to include the demands of the Southern Movement, the Houthis, and the independent youth.

Observation 2 is Why We Should Care

Our Framework is we should get to weigh the aff against the K.

1. Our aff is still relevant- you can’t wish away the aff just because you say things like method or representations- Its anti-debate and anti-educational. We should get the impacts of the aff- your links are predicated off our consequences. Its tautological for us not to get those same consequences.

2. you shouldn’t privilege the politics of the people in this debate room- it’s selfish

DEBATE-SPACE-POLITICS IS TOO INSULAR

EVEN IF THE PLAN DOESN’T PASS, THERE IS VALUE IN OUR PROJECT. Exposing ourselves to different modes of understanding is critical to cultivating sympathy for different ways of life

JENNI, Pf Philosophy at Redlands, 01                                   (Kathie, Social Theory and Practice, July v27 i3 p437)

The claim on behalf of academics' value to

AND

essential for growth in moral judgment.(9)

And OUR DEFENSE OF THE POLITICS OF FIAT IS CRITICAL TO ALLOW US TO CARE ABOUT PEOPLE WHO WE HAVE NOTHING IN COMMON WITH and highlight sites of resistance.

CAMPBELL, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE, 98 [DAVID, NATIONAL DECONSTRUCTION: VIOLENCE, IDENTITY, AND JUSTICE IN BOSNIA, P. 236-239]

The bond of which Derrida speaks is akin

AND

disturbance can be effected and new options enacted.

In-round-politics-FIRST is selfish.  The question should be how to mobilize large groups of people and ensure the left survives. 

Grossberg, 92 [Lawrence, “Professor of Communications Studies at the University of North Carolina, We Gotta Get Out of This Place: Popular Conservatism and Postmodern Culture, 1992 p. 388-390]

If the Left can give up its demand

AND

in order to win a victory somewhere else.

3.

ETHICS HAVE TO BE FEASIBLE

Demenchonok 9, Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, (Edward, The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68.1 (Jan): p9)

However, the further development of an ethical

AND

, or even should, be taken seriously.

4. Even if they win we have a poor method, it doesn’t take out our entire aff- we still solve instability and terrorism in Yemen which outweighs any impacts to a slightly tainted method.

Knowledge must be judged by its policy relevance

Lepgold and Nincic 2K1 (Joesph, associate professor of Government at Georgetown and Miroslav professor of Poly Sci at UC-Davis, Beyond the Ivory Tower: International Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy Relevance pg. 6-7) (SIR = Scholastic International Relations, the term for thinkers who discuss the theory behind real world processes)CS

This book stems from a sense of unease

AND

to work that is both useful and sound.

Epistemological and Methodological focus is not predictive – Only politically relevant IR can provide critical insight into future contingencies and grasp the political underpinnings of critiques

Lepgold and Nincic 2K1 (Joesph, associate professor of Government at Georgetown and Miroslav professor of Poly Sci at UC-Davis, Beyond the Ivory Tower: International Relations Theory and the Issue of Policy Relevance pg. 6-7) (SIR = Scholastic International Relations, the term for thinkers who discuss the theory behind real world processes) CS

As in other fields driven by a concern

AND

policy-relevance was taken for so long.

Prefer lived experiences over academic theorizing – the “theory left” is rushing to judgment without facts on the ground.  Their args are arrogant forms of appropriation that flatten lived experience

Barnett 11 Clive, Pf geographies of democracy & public life @ Open U, Geoforum, 42(3), pp. 263–265.

The ‘Arab Spring’, the mobilization for

AND

best to his own vision of revolutionary possibility.   

Deferring to philosophical judgment is paternalistic. It allows philosophers to decide what’s good for society

Beetham 9   David, consultant on democracy to the Council of Europe, the Inter-Parliamentary Union and UNESCO. Ethics & Global Politics, Vol 2, No 4 (2009)

The chief alternative to these principles that has

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continued even when the suffrage became widely extended.

“Hands off the Arab Spring” assumes that Arabs can’t hold their own.  This representation of incapacity is the HEART or Orientalism

Sadiki 11 Dr Larbi Sadiki is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, Al Jazeera, 6/6, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html

Many Arabs are speaking out against a possible

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inferiority, and an incapacity to speak back.

Fear of being trapped within the current ideological coordinates shouldn’t trump a politics that is concerned for the here and now.  Democracy is not a universal form of stagnation.  It evolves and allows for new forms of contestation

TORMEY 1, NOTTINGHAM, (Simon, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Critical Theory, School of Politics, Do we need "identity politics"? Postmarxism and the critique of "pure particularism," Presented at the ECPR Joint Sessions workshop on `Identity Politics', March 28)

Firstly, it is true that in the

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further `universalisation' in all spheres of life.

Stereotyping of liberal democratization does violence to real life policy formation

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

There are many eloquent critiques that have added

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the renovations needed are more subtle in nature.

Local resistance against specific oppressive conditions is more effective at generating specific resistance:

Sells 93 (Laura, Hypatia, Summer, v8)

While Foucault's critics say that local resistance denies

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no other grounding is required" (185).

Excluding the state is the logic of essentialism.  Hatred of the state produces a false belief in the potential for change.

Lobel 7 Assistant Professor of Law, University of San Diego, (Orly, Harvard Law Review, 120 Harv. L. Rev. 937)

Most recently, some thinkers have even suggested

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as representing the boundaries of their willed reality.

1. Your K lacks empirical support.  Democracy assistance doesn’t over-promote a liberal democracy template.  And your K over-exaggerates, real life policy formation is more complex

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

There are many eloquent critiques that have added

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the renovations needed are more subtle in nature.

2. Your representations link arguments are untrue – democracy assistance strongly leans in support of vernacular understandings and indigenous knowledge

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

A sixth point: the associated criticism that

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their less than favourable experiences on the ground.

TURN:

1. The K ignores that the authoritarianism of the squo is worse. 

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

Current international political trends are complex and still

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has been ‘the rediscovery of the state’.

2. The rejection of democratic systems perpetuates apathy

Murphy 10  Jonathan, Cardiff Business School, Critical Governance Studies conference, Warwick University, December 13 – 14

Therefore, notwithstanding an acknowledgement of the structured

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the extension of democracy to ever wider domains.

Criticizing the relevance of the law and political freedoms from afar is easy to do when you’re already protected by the law.  Many activists in Arab countries actually want the protection of the law. Your authors don’t have a clue what’s happening on the ground.

Kacem 11 M.B., French-Tunisian writer and philosopher. A Tunisian Renaissance.<http://www.lacan.com/thesymptom/?page_id=1046>

As a Tunisian, I was already tired

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now elsewhere, claim to see Islamism everywhere.

Totalization turn

a. Rejecting whiteness is the same practice of exclusion that their critique argues against – their critique whitewashes history in the name of purity.

Monahan ‘8 (Michael J. Monahan, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Marquette University, Racial Justice and the Politics of Purity, 2008, http://www.temple.edu/isrst/Events/documents/MichaelMonahanUpdated.doc)

The abolitionist/elimitavist position demands that any

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purity that links racial categories to oppressive norms.

b. Rejecting totalizing views of whiteness is a prerequisite to effectively challenge whiteness – focus on whiteness as an abstract force ignores local context and difference.

Hartigan 2K (John Jr. “Remembering White Detroit: whiteness in the mix of history and memory” University of North Texas Clly 4 Society 2000. XII (2) I I -3429)

The fundamental importance in the distinctions drawn by

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a national register (Omi and Winant 1986).

14. Imagine their aff is being read at a meeting for the montgomery, alabama bus boycott: their aff would scare people away from even getting lawyers involved they fear governmental authority so much that their aff could never convince people to support any kind of legal protections

Nagin ‘5 (Visiting Associate Professor, University of Virginia School of Law, Tomiko Brown, “ELITES, SOCIAL MOVEMENTS, AND THE LAW: THE CASE OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION,” Columbia Law Review, 105 Colum. L. Rev. 1436)

During the past three decades, historians who

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implement the changes in law that desegregated the buses

15. Governments routinely manipulate antiracism campaigns to promote their political interests – racism is depicted as destabilizing to justify action.

Bonnett 2k (Alastair Bonnett, Lecturer in Geography at the University of Newcastle, Anti-Racism, http://supporto.nextmedia.it:2011/Prodotti%20Nextmedia/Varie/Corsi_Nextmedia/KeyBooks/KI%20Anti-racism.pdf)

In this section I shall offer a context

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, such as cultural colonialism or economic globalisation.

16. YOU WON’T SUBVERT EUROCENTRISM – the homogenization of black experience won’t undermine European hegemony

Adeleke ‘5

(Tunde, PF African American Studies University of Montana-Missoula Gloracialization: The Response of Pan-Blackists to Globalization)

The call for pan-blackist cultural vigilance

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black Americans underscores the imperative of racialized discourse.

17. The discourse of Whiteness as a continuous and unidirectional historical project prevents effective anti-racist struggle

Winant ‘97 (Howard Winant, “Behind Blue Eyes: Whiteness and Contemporary US Racial Politics”)

In a quiet office at a Washington think

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‘politics of identity’ as the century ends.

Boehner can’t compromise – he took too much flack for the extension

STEINHAUER 1-14    Jennifer, NYT, Boehner Faces a Restive G.O.P. and New White House Attacks

WASHINGTON — For Speaker John A. Boehner

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. “But I don’t think it will.”

Won’t pass – too many disagreements

Guardian Today (Chris Miller 1/15/12 http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/jan/15/choice-facing-us-november-2012-election)

As the recent tax debacle shows, our Congress, led by the GOP-held House of Representatives, cannot agree even on the things they agree on, such as extending the payroll tax break for working-class Americans. The debate in Washington should never have wandered away from jobs.

Won’t pass—powerful lobbies

National Journal 1/12/12 (Housing Lobby Rousing Grassroots As Payroll Tax Fight Looms, http://influencealley.nationaljournal.com/2012/01/housing-lobby-rousing-grassroo.php)

After suffering a blow in December when Congress

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at very least not repeated in the future.

Appointments pissed off Republicans.

CNN 1/4 Republicans furious over Obama recess appointments “http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/04/republicans-furious-over-obama-recess-appointments/?iref=allsearch”

Congressional Republicans were furious Wednesday after President Obama's

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it is tilted in favor of labor unions.

Obama’s push to cut agencies is unpopular with Congress.

NYT 1/13 “Obama Bid to Cut the Government Tests Congress” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/14/us/politics/obama-to-ask-congress-for-power-to-merge-agencies.html

President Obama on Friday announced an aggressive campaign

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head counts, more effective departments or savings.

Plan will be spun as counterterrorism.

Keith Johnson 9/8/11 (Staff Writer, the Wall Street Journal, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/09/08/brennan-to-republicans-back-off-on-military-tribunals-for-terrorism-suspects/)

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser

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group has conquered some territory in southern Yemen.

1) Doesn't spend money.

McInerney 11 Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, Democracy, governance, and human rights in the middle east, July

Over the past few years, Yemen has

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months ahead will drive the strategy moving forward.

2) Senator Graham will push the plan and take the blame

McClatchy 11 “GOP's Sen. Graham works to protect foreign aid” October 24 http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/10/24/128147/gops-sen-graham-works-to-protect.html#ixzz1fo01Yobr

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina,

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, but it is something I'm interested in."

3) He’s key to the agenda.

NPR 10 “Sen. Lindsey Graham: Spotlight On A Deal Maker” March 24 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125063664&ft=3&f=1014

In the past year, political controversies as

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be selected for the Supreme Court in decades."

Congressional leaders key to the agenda- not political capital- our evidence is comparative.

Andres 10 Gary Andres, The Weekly Standard, 2010. “Obama and Legislative Power,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-and-legislative-power

But as Texas A&M professor George

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ultimately help Democrats maintain their majority in Congress.

1) Turn: Political Capital Bad

A) Polarizes the debate – disengagement solves best

Bouie 11 Janelle Bouie, The American Prospect, 1/18/2011. “Taxes and Presidential Leadership,” http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=01&year=2011&base_name=taxes_and_presidential_leaders

I sympathize with Sullivan, but I'm not

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if the president stays out of the conversation.

B) Alienates the GOP and stalls the agenda

Klein 11 Ezra Klein, Washington Post, 3/21/2011. “Will Obama help or hurt deficit negotiations?” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/would-obama-help-or-hurt-deficit-negotiations/2011/03/18/ABab9a8_blog.html

What the Gang of 64 asked from the

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media then covers — is not necessarily helpful.

It’s especially true on PTC- Republicans don't want to engage Obama.

Politico 1/5 (House GOP weakened, divided By: Jake Sherman, January 5, 2012 05:10 PM EST, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=84121667-8B73-4B63-A533-240275C12192)

Cantor has the first part of 2012 mapped

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the rest of the year,” Cantor said.

Oil shocks tank the economy.

Rick Newman, 2/18/11 US News and World Report. “How Arab Unrest Could Harm the World Economy.” <http://www.usnews.com/mobile/blogs/flowchart/2011/2/18/how-arab-unrest-could-harm-the-world-economy.html

Oil, however, is a different story

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, it could be a game-changer.

U.S. isn’t key to the global economy

Kohn 2008 – PhD in economics from Michigan, Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System, Vice Chairman of the Fed(Donald, speech at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, “Global Economic Integration and Decoupling”, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20080626a.htm, WEA)

What about our more recent experience? During

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rebounded more substantially than those of industrial countries.

Economic collapse does not cause war—their historical arguments are wrong

FERGUSON 2006 (Niall, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies. He is also a Senior Reseach Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct)

Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed.

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severe economic crises were not followed by wars.