Cal

Round 1 vs Wyoming BG (IMET)

1NC: T - Military, Instrumentality K, Backchannel CP, High Profile Aid Bad DA, politics, case (terrorism, SCAF relations, solvency)
2NC: kicked K, backchannel CP, terrorism adv, scaf relations adv
1NR: kicked ptx, high profile DA, solvency
2NR: high profile DA/heg good (1ar kicked the aff and impact turned heg)

Round 3 vs CSUN LL (increase drone strikes in Yemen)

1NC: T - Military, instrumentality K, development CP, jordan/saudi arabia training CP, saudi DA, politics, terrorism adv, solvency
2NC: kicked K, kicked training CP; T, development CP, terrorism adv, solvency
1NR: politics, saudi DA
2NR: development CP, politics, adv and solvency

Round 6 vs Wyoming FP (IMET)

1NC: T - military, instrumentality K, backchannel CP, high profile DA, politics, solvency, scaf relations adv, heg adv
2NC: kicked the K; backchannel CP, high profile DA, solvency, scaf relations
1NR: prolif good on heg
2NR: prolif good, solvency, scaf relations

Fullerton

Round 1 vs Fresno EK (Bahrain)

1NC: Instrumentality K, Pressure CP, Saudi DA, Case - stability, solvency
2NC: Instrumentality K, Pressure CP, stability
1NR: solvency, Saudi DA
2NR: K, CP as K alt, Saudi DA

Round 4 vs Whitman BM (Bahrain civil society)

1NC: Instrumentality K, Pressure CP, Saudi DA, Case - iran, radicalization, solvency
2NC: kicked K, CP, case
1NR: Saudi DA
2NR: Saudi DA, case

Round 6 vs Cornell CW

1NC: T - Increase, Instrumentality K, Saudi DA, Syria ICT CP, stability adv, solvency
2NC: ICT CP, K
1NR: case
2NR: K, case

1NC

Promoting United States interests in the name of democracy kills, starves, tortures and politically disenfranchises global peoples.  US politicians are divorced from the reality of what is occurring.  We should admit that until we have a basic knowledge of the Middle East, the US influence won’t be constructive.

Musaji, Shakir and Zogby 11 Sheila, founder and editor of The American Muslim quarterly journal; Imam Zaid, Lecturer at Zaytuna Institute, where he now teaches courses on Arabic, Islamic law, history, and Islamic spirituality, amongst the most respected and influential Islamic scholars in the West; James, President, the Arab American Institute, The American Muslim, 2/7, http://www.theamericanmuslim.org/tam.php/features/articles/the_egyptians_should_be_in_charge_of_egypts_future/0018378

It is time for Americans to acknowledge that
AND
seat role and let this situation play out. 

Our argument is equally true for recent Middle East analysis.  It’s too early to tell what our response should be and it is better to hesitate.  

HADDAD 11, BASSAM, Director, Middle East Studies Program, George Mason University, Middle East Policy, Summer, Pg. 1 Vol. 18 No. 2

It is probably too early to make too
AND
. It also crushed sensibilities and destroyed spirits. 

We are currently on the verge of witnessing new forms of knowledge.  If the Arab Spring has taught us anything, it should also teach us that we need a paradigm spring.  We must abandon the hyper-securitist paradigm or face extinction

Crane 11 Dr Robert, The American Muslim, Paradigm Spring and the Clash of Civilizational Paradigms, 1/27, http://www.theamericanmuslim.org/tam.php/features/articles/paradigm_spring_and_the_clash_of_civilizational_paradigms/ 

Paradigms are premises of thought that frame one’s
AND
twentieth-first-century “Paradigm Spring”.

The motivation behind the promotion of democracy is critical to policy-making.  The pursuit of altruistic assistance is radically different from an emphasis on US national interests

ALFORD 2K William P. Professor and Director, East Asian Legal Studies, Harvard Law School. Harvard Law Review, May, 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677

Carothers surely is right to urge a greater
AND
happy to allow the United States to hold).

Links - Bahrain

The fear of a sectarian divide is just over-blown US journalism.  Ordinary Shia’s don’t cheer Iranian soccer teams

Sadeghi  9-2  Shirin, Middle East specialist with an emphasis on Iran, Pakistan and the Gulf countries. She is the host of New America, Al Jazeera,
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011829104128700299.html

For decades, international news has refused to
AND
who naturally have an affinity for Shia Iran).

US support for Bahrain is all about US self interest

Blair 11   Andrew, University of Denver, U.S. Military Aid and Development, 8-19, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=12745

In Conclusion, the U.S.
AND
remain in power over their interest to develop.

Link - Syria

The aff spreads the connection that democracy assistance means regime change, causing larger Arab hostility

Smith and Stockmann 11 Stephanie and Natalie, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, 3-10

A number of foreign governments do not trust
AND
seem even more menacing and hostile (Ibid)

Link - Transition Management

US-managed transitions produce co-opted oppositions and leaders.  An orderly transition is just a fear of revolution as a form of disorder

Marshall 11 Andrew Gavin Marshall, February 9, 2011 (America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’ North Africa and the Global Political Awakening, Part 2, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23159)

Taking the position that everything is organized from
AND
not simply be crowned as ‘leaders.’

Link - Indo/Pak Conflict

SOUTH ASIAN SCENARIOS ARE THREAT CONSTRUCTIONS

Gusterson 6, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, (Hugh, of the Conventional Wisdom, M I T C E N T E R F O R I N T E R N A T I O N A L S T U D I E S, April)

It is not only nuclear weapons scientists who
AND
site in the world for a nuclear war.

2NC - Framework

1. Counter-interpretation – debate should allow for criticism of the underlying assumptions and frameworks behind the affirmative. Representations have to be considered in how they formulate the conclusions that their policy recommendation relies upon. Our interpretation is necessary to capture the race to the middle – must not focus on politics to the exclusion of engagement with what comprises “the political.”

2. “Resolved” is on the left side of the colon. The federal government is not the subject of that phrase – it is the debaters and critics should give themselves over to the thought of being resolved. A grammatical interpretation is the only way for the resolution to have a stable meaning.

Your appeal to policymaking is precisely what inhibits critical theory in the first place.

Bendaña 3, Centro de Estudios Internacionales, (Alejandro, What Kind of Peace is Being Built? Critical Assessments from the South, The International Development Research Centre, January, www.transnational.org/features/2004/Bendana_Peace.pdf)

It is revealing how more external intervention is
AND
”—tend to substitute for ongoing critical thinking.

2NC - No Predictions

You don’t know what the protestors think – your understanding of causes is over claimed

CORDESMAN 11, Anthony H, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Middle East Policy, Summer, Pg. 1 Vol. 18 No. 2

It is hard to assign any weight to
AND
knowing what the people as a whole think.

No one predicted the Arab Spring

HADDAD 11, BASSAM, Director, Middle East Studies Program, George Mason University, Middle East Policy, Summer, Pg. 1 Vol. 18 No. 2

What we saw in Tunisia in January is
AND
variable; it's not "the" variable.

Reliance on predictive assumptions about the nature of international politics obliterates agency.  

Bleiker 2k [Roland, Senior Lecturer and Coordinater of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program at Queensland, Popular Dissent, Human Agency and Global Politics, p. 48-49]

The very notion of prediction does, by
AND
these entrenched perceptions and the ensuing political practices.

CP Text

The United State federal government will announce that it will not provide Bahrain any new arms until it has verified that the government of Bahrain has ensured that 

 all secret police have vacated hospitals,
human rights monitors have access to the country’s villages and detention centers,
 adequate compensation has been made for the large-scale destruction of religious property,
special security court trials for opposition activists and medical workers have ended,
 all opposition figures and political prisoners currently imprisoned are granted due process rights in a civil court of law, and receive competent defense counsel.
anyone dismissed from work because of their participation in protests are reinstated 

The US will hire Shia companies and workers for any future contracts designed to expand the size of the 5th fleet naval base.

1NC

The CP sends the right message and is a good starting point

Washington Post 9-29  http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/arms-sales-to-repressive-bahrain-misplaced/2011/09/29/gIQASnhH8K_story.html

This month the Pentagon notified Congress of a
AND
package would be a good way to start.

Over a dozen human rights organizations support the CP and realize it’s critical for US democracy credibility in the Middle East.  The CP is a rejection of security interests as more important than political reforms

POMED 9-28  http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-and-ngos-urge-immediate-action-on-proposed-u-s-bahrain-arms-deal.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

In response to the recently proposed arms deal
AND
the United States and its presence in Bahrain.

ELITE PEACE NB:  the aff’s generic conflict resolution devalues the knowledge of the subaltern - allowing those who are officially recognized to speak for a vast number of people

SCHEHR & MILOVANOVIC 99 Robert C., Asst Prof Criminal Justice,  U of Illinois-Springfield and Dragan, Prof Criminal Justice, Sociology, & Social Work, Northeastern Illinois U, “Conflict mediation and the postmodern,” Social Justice, Spring, p. 208+

The second tension in the conventional literature is
AND
discussion of matters of interest to the subaltern.  

PEACE BETWEEN ELITES isn’t PEACE ON THE STREETS.  The aff devalues the people who will bear the brunt of any state negotiations

SCHEHR and MILOVANOVIC 99 Robert C., Asst Prof Criminal Justice,  U of Illinois-Springfield and Dragan, Prof Criminal Justice, Sociology, & Social Work, Northeastern Illinois U, 1999, Social Justice, Spring, p. 208+

Overreliance on master narratives promotes an ideological commitment
AND
the conflict comprehensively" (p. 313).

2NC: AT Stopped Arms Sales in SQ

We didn’t – we’re waiting for Bahrain’s response to the BICI report

Mohammed 1/7 (Arshad, U.S. concerned about Bahrain activist, urges probe, Times Colonist, January 7, http://www.timescolonist.com/news/concerned+about+Bahrain+activist+urges+probe/5962826/story.html)

The United States has said a $53
AND
the facts on the ground,” he added.

2NC: AT Pressure Fails

A. June 1st – The Crown Prince lifted martial law because the US said you can’t come to the White House until you do

B. Obama’s May speech caused the government to stop destroying Shia mosques

Aziz & Musalem 11— Sahar, Assoc. Prof of Law @ Texas Weselyan &  Abdullah, Social Researcher in Bahrain, Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Citizens, Not Subjects, July http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

According to the government’s own sources, the
AND
Soon thereafter, Manama ceased this particular campaign.

C. Pressure over banning Wafaq worked in April 

Terrill 11 Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Strategic Studies Institute Middle East specialist, 6-27-2011, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27

Bahraini interest in maintaining good relations with the
AND
outlawing these parties seems to have halted.8

D. Empirically judicial pressure worked last week

Fordham 10-6   Alice, Washington Post, Jailed doctors call for U.S. support in Bahrain

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said in a
AND
the trials were heavily dominated by the military.

People in Bahrain want pressure

POMED 11, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18, “POMED Notes” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

She urged the U.S. to
AND
European and American national interests to do so.

2NC - CP Solves Credibility

CP solves cred – prerequisite to solving violence

Innes ’11 (Alexander, U.S. Must Stop Arming the Bahraini Government, Policymic, http://www.policymic.com/articles/1957/u-s-must-stop-arming-the-bahraini-government)

Since mid-September, the Obama administration
AND
should stop the sale of this military equipment.

1NC vs Yemen

The Saudis support the transition away from Saleh only because they feel it’s necessary given the status quo – they would rather Saleh stay in power to prevent democratic momentum and instability from spilling over into the kingdom.

Knickmeyer 2011
Ellen Knickmeyer, former Washington Post Middle East bureau chief and Associated Press Africa bureau chief, July 5, 2011, Trouble Down South, Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/05/trouble_down_south

These days, in a further blurring of
AND
happened to Yemen in the last 20 years .” 

Saudi Arabia will invade to stop successful democratic revolutions – fear of a revolution at home and loss of regional hegemony – would jack oil market stability

Ahlul Bayt News Agency 2011
Ahlul Bayt News Agency, July 12, 2011 (Commander: Saudi Regime Feeling Deeply Intimidated by Arab Spring, http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=252946)

He mentioned that Saudi officials are feeling deep
AND
regimes and the West's support for their crimes.

Oil shocks spread quickly – even small shocks have outsized FX

Newman 2011
Rick Newman, February 18, 2011, How Arab Unrest could Harm the World Economy, US News & World Report, http://www.usnews.com/mobile/blogs/flowchart/2011/2/18/how-arab-unrest-could-harm-the-world-economy.html

Oil, however, is a different story
AND
, it could be a game-changer.

Oil wars cause extinction

Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, 2003 (The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, p. 230)

Today the average US citizen uses five times
AND
but of humanity and most of the biosphere.

1NC v Bahrain

Aiding Bahrain’s opposition groups causes Saudi freakout over fears of Iranian hegemony – that causes GCC expansion and Saudi Arabia will get nukes for a war with Iran.

Strobel 2011
Warren P. Strobel, March 24, 2011 ('Arab spring' drives wedge between U.S., Saudi Arabia, McClatchy Newspapers, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/24/111034/arab-spring-drives-wedge-between.html)

The United States and Saudi Arabia — whose
AND
a divorce, (but) a recalibration."

Saudi-Iran tensions increase oil prices and shocks and cause an arms race

Spindle and Coker 2011   
Bill, Maraget, WSJ, 4-16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_World_LeadStory

"The cold war is a reality,"
AND
a looming nuclear arms race in the region.

Middle Eastern arms race goes nuclear.

Cirincione 2007
Joseph, Director of Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress, "Apocalypse When?," November 12th, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=15998, AD 7/7/11

Third is the risk of new nuclear nations
AND
. That is a recipe for nuclear war.

1NC vs Syria

Saudi Arabia views Syria as a key battleground to contain Iran – courting the opposition causes Saudi freakout over Iran’s intentions

Saab 2011
Bilal Y. Saab, visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, August 31, 2011, Christian Science Monitor, http://www.aina.org/news/2011083118589.htm

Washington  All of a sudden, Saudi
AND
rising Turkey. And then Tehran would rejoice.

Saudi-Iran tensions cause oil wars – shocks & spikes.

Spindle and Coker 2011   
Bill, Maraget, WSJ, 4-16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_World_LeadStory

"The cold war is a reality,"
AND
a looming nuclear arms race in the region.

Oil wars cause extinction

Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, 2003 (The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, p. 230)

Today the average US citizen uses five times
AND
but of humanity and most of the biosphere.

Impact - Credibility

If another Saudi-led intervention happens it would shatter our cred in the region – it would allow Saudi Arabia to take control of the island – causes perpetual threat con against Iran.

Seznec 2011
Jean-François Seznec, visiting associate professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, March 14, 2011, Saudi Arabia Strikes Back, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/14/saudi_arabia_strikes_back?page=full

For the United States, the intervention is
AND
just surrendered their power to the giant next door

Increased Saudi regional influence will shatter US credibility on democracy makes it impossible to promote democracy in the region at all

Escobar 2011
Pepe Escobar, author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War, Fear and loathing in the House of Saud, April 21, 2011, Asia Times, http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD21Ak01.html

It's the House of Saud counter-revolution
AND
deserve a shallow grave in the desert sands.

1NR - Link Wall

Zero sum game – Saudi Arabia views the Arab Spring through the lens of countering Iranian influence.

Gause 2011
F. Gregory Gause, III,  teaches political science at the University of Vermont, August 9, 2011, Foreign Policy, “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary

So where do the Saudis stand as the
AND
, and let Prince Metternich rest in peace.

The link is huge – Saudis don’t just fear Iran and Shi’ism – democracy would challenge the foundations of their political system, they need the status quo to continue.

Conan 2011
Neal Conan, host of Talk of the Nation, et al, June 7, 2011 (Bernard Haykel, professor of Middle Eastern studies at Princeton, Toby Jones, professor of Middle East history at Rutgers, and Ebtihal Mubarak, freelance journalist and blogger, How the Arab Spring affects Saudi society, Talk of the Nation, NPR, http://www.npr.org/2011/06/07/137036450/how-the-arab-spring-affects-saudi-society)

JONES: That's right. They have not
AND
is at the top of their priority list.

Demonization link – Saudi Arabia will demonize Iran and ask for US assistance in fighting an Iran-Saudi cold war – the Saudis will freak out even if Iran has nothing to do with Shia uprisings

Heydarian 2011 (Richard Javad Heydarian, Foreign Policy in Focus, Iran Plot: A Pretext for War, Truthout, November 4, 2011, http://www.truth-out.org/iran-plot-pretext-war/1320602149)

In geo-strategic terms, these allegations
AND
repressive systems that dominate the Persian Gulf region.

Saudi Arabia will play the Iran card – rallies support at home and from the Gulf States.

Sadjadpour & Boucek 2011 (Karim Sadjadpour and Christopher Boucek, associates at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on the Middle East, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia, Global Public Square, CNN, September 21, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/21/iran-vs-saudi-arabia/)

There has always been a fear that Iranians
AND
or Shias are not going to evaporate overnight.

Iran will provoke Saudi Arabia – sense of pride and superiority

Sadjadpour & Boucek 2011 (Karim Sadjadpour and Christopher Boucek, associates at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on the Middle East, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia, Global Public Square, CNN, September 21, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/21/iran-vs-saudi-arabia/)

Sadjadpour: There is similar chauvinism among Iranians
AND
capital or work ethic to compete with Iran.

Link uniqueness - Troops in Bahrain warning to Iran not to expand influence  

Shanahan 2011
Rodger Shanahan, June 23, 2011, “Washington, Riyadh and the Arab Spring” http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2011/06/23/Washington-Riyadh-and-the-Arab-Spring.aspx

Saudi Arabia was, like pretty well everyone
AND
, with its invitations to Morocco and Jordan.

1NR - Impact - Arms Races

Spindle & Coker say increased Saudi-Iran tensions cause regional arms races

Those go nuclear.

Cirincione 2007
Joseph, Director of Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress, "Apocalypse When?," November 12th, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=15998, AD 7/7/11

Third is the risk of new nuclear nations
AND
. That is a recipe for nuclear war.

1NR - Impact - Food Prices

Oil price spikes creates economic instability and causes food prices to spike

Prince 2011
Rob Prince, March 6, 2011, The Oil Crisis to Come,  http://robertjprince.wordpress.com/2011/03/06/the-oil-crisis-to-come/

And…the price of a gallon of
AND
East region, intensifying all of these tendencies.

Blips in food prices kill billions

Tampa Tribune, January 20, 1996

On a global scale, food supplies -
AND
more than half of their income on food.

1NR - Impact - China

Saudi Arabia will export more oil to China – causes US-China war.

Alterman and Garver 2008
Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the CSIS Middle East Program, and John W. Garver, professor of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East Chapter One – Introduction, October 15, 2008, http://www.susris.com/articles/2008/ioi/081015-triangle-intro.html

In the global hunt for oil, the
AND
are serious enough that they bear prolonged examination.

Extinction

The Straits Times, June 25, 2000 (“Regional Fallout: No One Gains in the War Over Taiwan”, Pg. L/N)

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross
AND
, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

1NR - Impact - Pakistan

Saudis will nuclearize – that’s 1NC Strobel

They also will seek nukes from Pakistan – ensuing tensions cause Pakistani state collapse which spreads through the region.

Siddiqui 2011
Farrukh Siddiqui, Riyadh will build nuclear weapons if Iran gets them, Saudi prince warns, June 30, 2011, http://www.stateofpakistan.org/riyadh-will-build-nuclear-weapons-if-iran-gets-them-saudi-prince-warns

The Australian said that until recently it appeared
AND
Arabia may seek to capitalise on its investment.

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear war

Ron Rosenbaum, November 29 2007 (“Talkin' World War IIIThe return of the repressed”, http://www.slate.com/id/2178792/pagenum/3/)

I don't want to be alarmist (actually
AND
control room is not an utterly unforeseeable nightmare.

1NC

Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology, including hardware, software and training, to Syrian civil society groups.

It solves – creates large scale uprising in Syria and revitalizes civil society. 

Kendra Srivastava, August 3, 2011, “Syrian Protestors Scared to Use Facebook, Twitter” http://www.mobiledia.com/news/101219.html

Syrian protestors are scared to use Facebook and
AND
against him on Facebook and in the streets.

The counterplan is the best way to mobilize civil society to topple Assad – fear of the regime prevents this mobilization which can stop a civil war.

Carnegie Middle East Center 2011 <The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Turmoil in Syria and the Regional Consequences” Tamara Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State Murhaf Jouejati, Professor of Middle East Studies, National Defense University Ammar Abdulhamid, Founder and Director, The Tharwa Foundation Itamar Rabinovich, Charles Bronfman Distinguished Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Paul Salem, Director, Carnegie Middle East Center http://carnegie-mec.org/events/?fa=3267>

Possible Scenarios for Change The panelists agreed that
AND
preventing many people from demonstrating, he added.

AT Iran Adv (Whitman)

Your Iran is trying to exploit Shia unrest argument is just a repeat of US fear, not the reality – your ev isn’t making the argument that Iran will exploit, it’s arguing that the US thinks it’s the case

GCC ECONOMIC AID is solving in the SQ

Terrill 11     Dr. W. Andrew, The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World, August 2, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2

One step which is already being implemented and
AND
be of considerable value in maintaining social stability.

Pro-Iranian interests are a minority

Andoni 8-30   Lamis, analyst and commentator on Middle Eastern and Palestinian affairs, Al Jazeera, Bahrain's contribution to the Arab Spring

Some articles, in influential Gulf-owned
AND
to those of protesters across the Arab World.

The fear of a sectarian divide is just over-blown US journalism.  Ordinary Shia’s don’t cheer Iranian soccer teams

Sadeghi 9-2 Shirin, Middle East specialist with an emphasis on Iran, Pakistan and the Gulf countries. She is the host of New America, Al Jazeera, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011829104128700299.html

For decades, international news has refused to
AND
of cheers and support for the Iranian side. 

Iran will be a spoiler – their Walker evidence (Walker ’11) – “Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, the impact of Iran has been the single most important factor in fragmenting Bahraini society and injecting religion into opposition politics”

Representations of a sectarian divide are wrong

Sadeghi 9-2 Shirin, Middle East specialist with an emphasis on Iran, Pakistan and the Gulf countries. She is the host of New America, Al Jazeera, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011829104128700299.html

The so-called sectarian divide of Bahrain
AND
their determination, to get their voices heard.

Iran isn’t a threat

Ritter 07 (Scott, a Marine Corps intelligence officer from 1984 to 1991 and a United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq from 1991 to 1998, “The Big Lie: ‘Iran Is a Threat’, October 8, http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/10/08/4404/)

Iran has never manifested itself as a serious
AND
on the issue of the Iranian “threat.”

No Chance of Iranian retaliation – Strikes would be so devastating that they would have no capability to strike back

Dr. Dan Plesch, Director of the School of Oriental and African Studies’ Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, Martin Butcher, Martin Butcher is an international consultant on security politics, September 2007, Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East, School of Oriental and African Studies, http://www.rawstory.com/images/other/IranStudy082807a.pdf

The US B-2A carries a new
AND
Saddam's armies, once their positions are known.

AT Radicalization Adv (Whitman)

Al-Wefaq is backing away from protests

Salloum 9-28   Shahira, Monthly Review, first published in Al-Akhbar, http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2011/salloum280911.html

Al-Wefaq and other Bahraini opposition groups
AND
of more innocents," the resigned MP said.

Even if the crackdown ended it won’t prevent radicalization

ICG 7-28, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

It has much to repair. The past
AND
will be politically radicalised when they grow up”.

Attempting to co-opt Bahrain’s revolution causes backlash – the US will be perceived cynically. 

McInnes 11     Andrew, Time Out Corner, Arab Spring will be US Gov’t Winter, http://timeoutcorner.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/arab-spring-will-be-us-govt-winter/

To address the USG’s opinion of the region
AND
force to prevent those problems from being solved.

Democratization doesn’t reduce extremism

Carothers 8  Thomas,  Democracy, A Journal of Ideas Issue #10, Fall

But in his zeal, Traub slips a
AND
and avoid instrumentalizing democracy promotion methods and goals.

Muslims know your aff is just an attempt to maintain US interests

Kull 9-5  Steven, political analyst, 2011, “Why muslims are still mad at America,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

Muslims see this narrative as being used to
AND
liberal forces and to undermine the Islamist forces.

Too late – the damage is done

Al-Ahmed 11 Ali, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

There is precious little time left for the
AND
US policy and declare opposition to the intervention.

Unforeseen events will cause the US to fall back on its own interests

Carothers 11       Thomas, Foreign Policy, March 10, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/10/think-again-arab-democracy/2ba#

George W. Bush started to turn that
AND
country, embodying inconsistencies that reflect clashing imperatives.

Risk of terrorism functionally zero 

Harwood 9 [Matthew, assistant editor at Security Management, “9-11 Creates "Misleading View of Terrorism," Expert Says,” 5/28, Security Management is the award-winning publication of ASIS International, the preeminent international organization for security professional, http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/9-11-creates-misleading-view-terrorism-expert-says-005702]

The events of 9-11 are the
AND
very misleading view of terrorism," he said.

No risk of weaponization

Talmadge ‘07, Ph.D. in political science at MIT, 2007 (Caitlin. Spring. The Washington Quarterly. Deterring a Nuclear 9/11. www.twq.com/07spring/docs/07spring_talmadge.pdf)

Nowhere is this approach more plausible than in
AND
of [weapons of mass destruction (WMD)].

Solvency (Whitman)

The regime can’t give the protestors what it wants – the Saudis won’t allow it

Dhaif 7-19   Lamees, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, Bahrain’s bitter solutions: Pressures from within and challenges from abroad

After the internationalisation of the crisis, two
AND
, economic losses, and more popular protests.

Freedom for arrested protestors and stigmatization are pre-requisites to dialogue

ICG 7-28, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

For a real dialogue to start in earnest
AND
much less national reconciliation, can take place.

Upfront concessions are mandatory.  Al-Wiaq wants a constituent assembly guarantee. The opposition party will demand assembly elections and a new constitution  which the government will interpret as a slippery slope

ICG 7-28, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

While talks proceeded in apparent good faith,
AND
family’s intentions, decisively shaped its negotiating posture. 

Turn – greater demands. The promise of reforms don’t pacify.  Our argument is a turn.  Offering new dialogue causes the opposition to up their demands

Roach 9-29   Morgan, The Foundry, http://blog.heritage.org/2011/09/29/bahrain-walks-a-political-tightrope/

Bahrain’s government has offered open dialogue, made
AND
external forces in Iran are inciting the violence.

Ruling family won’t agree to the plan 

ICG 7-28, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

That said, there is reason to doubt
AND
the king and the institution of the monarchy. 

The past should be our guide - the regime will reject the opposition’s demands

Dhaif 7-19   Lamees, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, Bahrain’s bitter solutions: Pressures from within and challenges from abroad

To extrapolate scenarios for Bahrain’s future, it
AND
out of 300 seats) of the opposition. 

The prime minister and Saudi Arabia will pressure the crown prince from making any real concessions

ICG 7-28, International Crisis Group, 7-28-2011, “Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform,”  http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/bahrain-s-rocky-road-to-reform.aspx

The crown prince faced his own set of
AND
they could rely on to bring about reform.

\\

1NC vs Cornell CW

A. Increase means to become progressively greater (as in size, amount, number, or intensity)—that’s Merriam Webster No Date Given 

B. Democracy assistance must be direct material aid provided to governments or NGO’s  

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8
[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy
AND
implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

C. “Should” denotes an expectation – this means the resolution shows expectation that its agent will enact the plan 

American Heritage Dictionary  00 (www.dictionary.com)
3 Used to express probability or expectation

Violation—the aff just reviews status quo aid and shifts it to other programs—it doesn’t mandate an increase in democracy assistance to topical countries-there’s no guarantee that the review they mandate will result in an increase in assistance 

Prefer our interpretation-

A. Limits—Not limiting the topic to technical assistance opens the floodgates to allow for any diplomatic action to be topical—economic assistance, sanctions, debt relief—or any policy that might eventually increase democratic governance

B. Ground—They eliminate any disad based off of the increase of aid-makes it impossible to access core generics

C. F/X T—Even if the aff eventually results in more aid being given—immediate aid is key to get links to core disads and competition for counterplans

\\

AT Stability Adv (Cornell CW)

Financial support from business partners will keep Assad in power – protests and sanctions aren’t touching his key allies in Damascus and Aleppo.

Slim 2011
Randa Slim, adjunct research fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East Institute, August 5, 2011, Where’s Syria’s business community? Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community

The decision by the U.S.
AND
long-term to prevent Assad's eventual downfall.

Turn – commitment trap – lack of coherent future planning turns Syria into another Iraq.

Rall 2011
Ted Rall, American political cartoonist, columnist and author, August 25, 2011, Al Jazeera, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201182281512952586.html

Like Bush, Obama is winging it in
AND
support to guarantee close ties down the road.

Economic reforms are a prerequisite to effective political reforms – political reforms first will cause Syrian internal fighting which will spillover into Middle East instability.

Friedman 2011
Uri Friedman, May 12, 2011, Rami Makhlouf: The Man the Syrian Regime Is Distancing Itself From, The Atlantic Wire, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/05/rami-makhlouf-man-syrian-regime-distancing-itself/37657/

On Monday, Rami Makhlouf, Syria's most
AND
, developed policies as "a joint decision."

Zero chance of nuclear use. 

Enders, 2002 (David, Daily News Editor for the Michigan Daily, “Experts say nuclear war still unlikely,” http://media.www.michigandaily.com/media/storage/paper851/news/2002/01/30/News/Experts.Say.Nuclear.War.Still.Unlikely-1404620.shtml)  

University political science Prof. Ashutosh Varshney becomes
AND
out of the current tension," Lieberthal said.

Indopak war won't escalate or cause extinction.

Dyer 2002 (5/24, Gwinette, Hamilton Spectator, "Nuclear war a possibility over Kashmir", Lexis, WEA)

For those who do not live in the
AND
atmosphere, and they are mostly still here.

No interest in fighting on either side—empirically proven

Ali 2005 - Balsillie Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (11/13, Asim, with The Record, Centre for International Governance Innovation, "India goes soft on Pakistan to please the U.S.", http://www.cigionline.org/articles/2005/11/india-goes-soft-pakistan-please-us, WEA)

After a series of co-ordinated bomb
AND
from Britain in 1947, two over Kashmir. 

Alt cause – water conflicts guarantee Indo-Pak war

Ali, 2010, advisor to the prime minister of Pakistan on education, Sardar Seff Ali, “Unresolved water issues could trigger Indo-Pak war, says Gilani’s advisor,” 1/3/2010, http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/south-asia/unresolved-water-issue-could-trigger-indo-pak-war-says-gilanis-advisor_100298147.html

Lahore, Jan.3 (ANI):
AND
move which could greatly affect Pakistan’s water share.

Syrians want to lead their own revolution – Western aid is seen as imposition of US political interests means the plan cuts off US local influence.

Ali 2011
Hummam Sheikh Ali, August 22, 2011, Syria under pressure for resisting western plans in the region, Xinhua News, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-08/22/c_131064442.htm

The sanctions were compounded by the U
AND
of human rights and democracy," said Jabbour.

Solvency (Cornell CW)

Turn—Fragmentation - Collapse is inevitable. US action to speed up the transition guarantees endless civil war. The opposition needs time to develop a leader.

Landis, 8-9 [Joshua, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, “Syrians must win the revolution on their own,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own]

A growing chorus of policy experts in Washington
AND
we must win this struggle on our own." 

No solvency – The plan makes the US look hypocritical on Syria

Obama said we’d let the Syrians handle their own revolution

Duss 2011
Matthew Duss, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress and the Director of Middle East Progress at the Center, August 18, 2011, Ratcheting Up Pressure on Syria’s Assad, Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/syria_assad.html

But, as the president made clear before
AND
there not be foreign intervention in their movement.”

Aff is too late – Obama’s silence killed any chance of US influence – crippled our diplomatic cred and allowed Assad to stay in power

Tobin 2011
Jonathan S. Tobin, August 18, 2011, Obama too late on Assad, Commentary Magazine, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/18/obama-assad-clinton-syria/

After several months of dithering President Obama has
AND
that you can’t count on the United States.

DEMOCRACY AID-ERS KNOW YOUR CRITICISMS ALREADY AND DON’T CARE

CLARK 7 William, International Endowment for Democracy, Philanthropic Imperialism: the National Endowment for Democracy, 6/29

So on close examination we find evidence that
AND
of perspective is allowed here, none.  '

people who determine democracy assistance will never listen to ideas like the aff – they think it’d be too contradictory and jargon-laden 

ALFORD 2K William P. Professor and Director, East Asian Legal Studies, Harvard Law School. Harvard Law Review, May, 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677

Although Carothers acknowledges that the notion of a
AND
toward the American government (p. 94).

Regime change would create more regional instability. 

Ziadeh 2011
Radwan Ziadeh is the Director of the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies and a visiting scholar at George Washington University. “A Multifaceted Response to Syria’s Brutality” Project on Middle East Democracy http://www.pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Policy-Brief-Series_Ziadeh.pdf

In the face of such flagrant human rights
AND
country in pursuit of basic rights and freedoms.

Plan doesn’t remove Ambassador Ford from Damascus – his presence gives Assad legitimacy and harms US influence.

Gordon 2011
J.D. Gordon, communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009, August 20, 2011, Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1WOjkXCvo

Next, he should recall U.S
AND
regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

US has no influence in Syria – inability to stop Russia from selling arms to Assad proves

Lopez 2011
Linette Lopez, August 18, 2011, Russia Is Still Selling Weapons To Syria, Business Insidser, http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-syria-weapons-2011-8

Russia will continue to sell weapons to the
AND
that the United States can't or won't sell to

The Syrian economy is in the tank – overwhelms solvency

Achy 2011
Lahcen Achy, August 17, 2011, The Economic Consequences of Syria's Social Unrest, Carnegie, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=45369&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeacePublications+%28DC+-+Publications%29

Popular protests in Syria over the last five
AND
be enough to fund seven months of imports.

Plan lays the groundwork for future military intervention – neocons will justify it as the next necessary step for Syrian stability.

Landis 2011
Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, August 24, 2011, Syria Comment, http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2011/landis250811.html

The first is made up of the neocons
AND
be a fight for the faint of heart.

Assad Won't Fall

Assad won’t collapse now—answers all their warrants-including Iran and milt defections-star this card

Richard Rousseau is Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan and a contributor to Global Brief, World Affairs in the 21st Century (www.globalbrief.ca) and the Jamestown Foundation. 12/23/11 (“Syria’s Regime Likely to Survive for Some Time Yet”, http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home_old/PartnerPosts/tabid/671/PostID/2856/language/en-US/Default.aspx) 

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak predicted last week
AND
and direct support from external actors is forthcoming.

Prefer our evidence – Assad’s in complete control of the situation in Syria – their evidence is just Western punditry

Gambill 2011
Gary C. Gambill, August 23, 2011, Assad Knows What He's Doing, The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/assad-knows-what-hes-doing-5793

For all of their disagreement over particulars,
AND
a good bet he knows what he’s doing.

Even if Assad takes hits he won’t fall – the transition faces too much resistance AND the opposition has nothing going AND Obama’s weak stance proves Assad stays. Their evidence suffers from a lack of conceptual clarity and is no more accurate than unofficial commentary.

Pillar 2011
Paul Pillar, August 10, 2011, Assad’s uncertain departure path The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/assads-uncertain-departure-path-5749

Yesterday I addressed the frequent absence of clarity
AND
ought to be the one to do it.

Nothing will touch Assad – he’s weathered every challenge and no amount of US pressure can solve

Friedman 2011
Uri Friedman, August 18, 2011, Will Obama's Call for Assad to Step Down Pack a Punch? The Atlantic Wire, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/08/significance-western-calls-assad-step-down/41432/

The words and actions seem tougher than they
AND
ICC referral) much, much more likely."

Decades of power consolidation

El Mokhtar 2011
Mohamed El Mokhtar, August 18, 2011, Syria Teetering on the Edge, http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17042

However, due to an exclusive monopoly of
AND
use of security forces is counter-productive.

No alternatives – The regime is too organic

Haddad 2011
BASSAM, Director, Middle East Studies Program, George Mason University, Middle East Policy, Summer, Pg. 1 Vol. 18 No. 2

What remains is a discussion of how Syria
AND
top security services or the top anny officials.

Even US and Israeli intelligence admit Assad is too strong

Dreyfuss 2011
Robert Dreyfuss, Nation contributing editor, May 9, 2011, Obama (So Far) Ignores Hawks on Syria, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/blog/160517/obama-so-far-ignores-hawks-syria

Fact is, Assad will be with us
AND
to Assad, at least at the moment.

\\

AT SCAF Relations (Wyoming)

Relations too low to overcome — can’t overcome aid to NGO’s and recent criticism 

VOA 12 “With Mubarak Gone, Us Searches For Allies In New Egypt” 1/3/12 http://middleeastvoices.com/2012/01/with-mubarak-gone-us-searches-for-allies-in-new-egypt/

However, the relationship is unlikely to be
AND
a more rational, fact-based dialogue.”

This argument is silly—the SCAF doesn’t want this type of aid—they have PUBLICLY CHALLENGED the US on this issue

Neil Hicks International Policy Advisor  @ Human Rights First 12/21/11 Egypt: The SCAF Throws Down the Gauntlet”, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/21/egypt-the-scaf-throws-down-the-gauntlet/) 

The U.S. government’s influence is
AND
American political forces are coming to the fore?

You don’t have predictive solvency evidence for cooperation – Mitchell & Nelson says that the goal of CMR is for no intervention, but doesn’t conclude that this will be the case

Cooperation collapse inevitable—new political actors 

Steven A Cook 1/10/12 Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign “Egypt's Revolution a Year Later”, http://www.cfr.org/egypt/egypts-revolution-year-later/p27007) 

Nearly a year has passed since the huge
AND
Egypt and the United States over time."’

Divergence inevitable—new political parties 

Steven A Cook 1/10/12 Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign “Egypt's Revolution a Year Later”, http://www.cfr.org/egypt/egypts-revolution-year-later/p27007) 

U.S. policymakers find themselves in
AND
a policy that adjusts to this new era.

Relationship will fall apart—strategic interests 

Steven A. Cook Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign 1/2/11 “Why Is Egypt's Military Using Strong-Arm Tactics?”, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june12/egypt2_01-02.html

And, finally, there is a significant
AND
United States and Egypt over the long term.

CMR doesn’t solve – already supposed to have civilian control

Said and Bakr 11   Mohamed Kadry, Noha, Arab Reform Initiative, Egypt Security Sector Reforms, http://arab-reform.net/spip.php?article4180

As for the legislative system control over the
AND
including pays taxes (Sayigh 2007: 26).

There is absolutely no risk of terrorism – the aff's claims are baseless fantasies about al Qaeda and its capabilities.

Gerges 1/3 [Fawaz, professor of IR @ London School of Economics, his most recent book is The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda, “The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda: Debunking the Terrorism Narrative”, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fawaz-gerges/the-rise-and-fall-of-alqa_b_1182003.html]

The popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt,
AND
the European colonial legacy of domination and subjugation.

No Egypt-Israel war – disputes happen all the time – Egypt’s leaders know it’s too risky to actually go to war

Butt 2011 (Gerald Butt Middle East Correspondent, Egyptian-Israeli relations set to chill after Cairo incident, Church Times, September 16, 2011, http://www.churchtimes.co.uk/content.asp?id=117940)

THE storming of the Israeli em­bassy
AND
sermons continue to demonise Israel and the Israelis.

Democracy assistance causes SCAF freakout – creating a culture fearful of accepting foreign assistance

Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul Richter and Jeffery Fleishman, August 10, 2011, U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way, LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

Reporting from Washington and Cairo — Six months
AND
the total $165 million has been distributed.

The military will respond by bashing Israel – causes Egypt-Israel war

Zahran 11 (Mudar Zahran, September 9, 2011, Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

While the Egyptian revolution was still boiling,
AND
million-man-protests for this cause.

AT Heg (Wyoming)

Can’t solve anti-Americanism – US doesn’t influence the protestors

Barfi 11, Barak, Research Fellow, New America Foundation, Middle East Policy, Summer, Pg. 1 Vol. 18 No. 2

I want to finish by talking a little
AND
people think on the ground is somewhat limited.

Proliferation is slow

Drake Bennett - the staff writer for Ideas - March 20, 2005 “Give nukes a chance: Can the spread of nuclear weapons make us safer?” http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2005/03/20/give_nukes_a_chance?pg=full

KENNETH N. WALTZ, adjunct professor of
AND
, we only have nine nuclear countries.''

Proliferation causes peace, nuclear weapons make war unthinkable

Kenneth N. Waltz - adjunct professor of political science @ Columbia, senior research scholar in the Institute of War and Peace - 1995 “Peace, Stability, and Nuclear Weapons” Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation IGCC Policy Papers # PP15

America has long associated democracy with peace and
AND
worried and more relaxed life.24 Exactly. 

Nuclear weapons prevent devastating conventional wars that kill millions

Bertrand Lemennicier – professor of economics at the University of Paris – 2003 “Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation or Monopoly?” in The Myth of National Defense ed. Hans Herman Hoppe http://www.mises.org/etexts/defensemyth.pdf [NOTE: PRONOUNCED LEM-ENN-SEE-AY]

IS NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION A BLESSING? Yes it
AND
from owning such means of dissuading potential aggressors.

US doesn’t need alliances to contain Iran.  Empathy and regional interest solve

Logan 11   Justin, associate director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Washington. Best Defense, http://www.amconmag.com/blog/best-defense/

If the United States stopped providing security for
AND
threats rather than band-wagon with them.

No hege impact – ARAB COOPERATION WILL OCCUR – they won’t abandon the US

Freeman 11   Chas W, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, Middle East Policy, Summer, Pg. 29 Vol. 18 No. 2

Revolutionary change has already come to some Arab
AND
for transnational cooperation than they do for conflict.

Turn – Rising Democracies.  Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Turkey hate US-led democratization

CAROTHERS and YOUNGS 11 [Thomas, VP – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program. worked on democracy assistance projects for many public and private organizations and carried out extensive field research on democracy-building efforts around the world. Richard, director general of FRIDE and Pf U of Warwick, Democracy Promotion in the Age of Rising Powers, July 14,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=45029&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeacePublications+%28DC+-+Publications%29]

Ask foreign ministry officials in rising democracies whether
AND
other low-key measures to support democracy. 

US CAN’T SOLVE IRAN, NORTH KOREA OR ISRAEL-PALESTINE CONFLICTS

Mearsheimer 10   John J, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, The National Interest, 12-16, http://nationalinterest.org/article/imperial-by-design-4576

The United States has also been unable to
AND
and Gaza are incorporated into a Greater Israel.

Palestine veto decimates US diplomatic credibility in the Middle East

Rozen, 2011 (Laura Rozen, Obama faces referendum on his Mideast diplomacy, The Envoy, http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/obama-faces-referendum-mideast-diplomacy-201053961.html)

As President Barack Obama prepares to head to
AND
Assemblydespite U.S. opposition.

U.S. hegemony fails – intervention’s impossible

Conry 1997 Foreign Policy Analyst at Cato [Barbara, Policy Analysis, Feb 5, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-267.html]

In other words, if America abdicates its
AND
, as it did in Somalia and Bosnia.

Solvency

Training does nothing – only comprehensive reform solves

Gold 2011  
Rick, A retired Foreign Service Officer who served with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in Egypt as Democracy Officer from 2004-2007,  Assuring Accountability for the Egyptian Security Sector, 7-17

In Egypt, the security sector requires reform
AND
reform and sustain efforts to monitor its transformation.  

Plan is a kneejerk reaction – The US has nothing like the Egyptian security sector

Perito 2011
Robert Perito, Director, Security Sector Governance Center, United States Institute of Peace, a former foreign service minister and a former deputy executive secretary of the National Security Council, EGYPT’S TRANSITION AND THE CHALLENGE OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM, 5-18

The reason for this, and the challenge
AND
conducted in the context of a counterinsurgency agenda.

The SCAF won’t reform and minor changes won’t appease anyone

Fisher 8/12   
William, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, Latin America and elsewhere for the past 25 years. He has supervised major multi-year projects for AID in Egypt, The Public Record, http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/

He added, "The chronic human rights
AND
not enough. It needs to be disbanded." 

Discrimination – newly trained officers will be ignored

Cook 2009
Steven Cook, Senior fellow for middle eastern studies at the council on foreign relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy, December 11th, “U.S. Military Assistance: Obstacle or Opportunity for Reform?”, http://pomed.org/us-military-assistance-obstacle-or-opportunity-for-reform/

Responding to a question from Graefe, Cook
AND
often discriminated against professionally within the Egyptian military. 

Alt cause – lack of elections aid – key to civilian oversight

Kodmani and Dubarry 2009
Bassma Kodmani is the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, a consortium of Arab and international think tanks with a joint program on reform in the Arab world, May Chartouni-Dubarry is a Senior Research Fellow in Middle-Eastern studies, “The Security Sector in Arab Countries: Can it be Reformed?" IDS Bulletin Volume 40, No 2, March

The timing and circumstances of security sector reform
AND
all areas and across all state institutions simultaneously.

War on terror prevents security sector reforms – distrust and terror context mean any reforms are discreet at best and won’t improve accountability 

Kodmani and Dubarry 2009
Bassma Kodmani is the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, a consortium of Arab and international think tanks with a joint program on reform in the Arab world, May Chartouni-Dubarry is a Senior Research Fellow in Middle-Eastern studies, “The Security Sector in Arab Countries: Can it be Reformed?" IDS Bulletin Volume 40, No 2, March

A second factor relates to the current context
AND
secretive and increases the opacity of the sector.

Short term focus will distort the aff

Perito 2011
Robert Perito, Director, Security Sector Governance Center, United States Institute of Peace, a former foreign service minister and a former deputy executive secretary of the National Security Council, EGYPT’S TRANSITION AND THE CHALLENGE OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM, 5-18

It’s also very important that we focus on
AND
process in a very, very serious way.

\\

1NC

Proliferation is slow

Drake Bennett - the staff writer for Ideas - March 20, 2005 “Give nukes a chance: Can the spread of nuclear weapons make us safer?” http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2005/03/20/give_nukes_a_chance?pg=full

KENNETH N. WALTZ, adjunct professor of
AND
, we only have nine nuclear countries.''

Proliferation causes peace, nuclear weapons make war unthinkable

Kenneth N. Waltz - adjunct professor of political science @ Columbia, senior research scholar in the Institute of War and Peace - 1995 “Peace, Stability, and Nuclear Weapons” Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation IGCC Policy Papers # PP15

America has long associated democracy with peace and
AND
worried and more relaxed life.24 Exactly. 

Nuclear weapons prevent devastating conventional wars that kill millions

Bertrand Lemennicier – professor of economics at the University of Paris – 2003 “Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation or Monopoly?” in The Myth of National Defense ed. Hans Herman Hoppe http://www.mises.org/etexts/defensemyth.pdf [NOTE: PRONOUNCED LEM-ENN-SEE-AY]

IS NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION A BLESSING? Yes it
AND
from owning such means of dissuading potential aggressors.

Prolif Slow/AT Runaway & Fast Prolif

Proliferation will be slow, only countries with severe threats want nuclear weapons

Kenneth N. Waltz - adjunct professor of political science @ Columbia, senior research scholar in the Institute of War and Peace - Winter/Spring 2K “Is Kenneth Waltz Still M.A.D. about Nukes?” Interview by Jeremy Goldberg & Parag Khanna. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs Volume 1, Number 1 http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/gjia/gjia_winspr00f.html

Journal In your writing, you argue that
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two states per decade gradually develop nuclear weapons.

Predictions about rapid nuclearization have always been false, low demand ensures few will get weapons

Jacques E. C. Hymans - assistant professor of government at Smith College - November 2005 “Think Again: Nuclear Proliferation” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3304

With all the headlines on the Iranian and
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money, you’d have fired them by now.

The floodgates haven’t opened in the past and won’t in the future

Kenneth N. Waltz - adjunct professor of political science @ Columbia, senior research scholar in the Institute of War and Peace - 1995 “Peace, Stability, and Nuclear Weapons” Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation IGCC Policy Papers # PP15 http://repositories.cdlib.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1055&context=igcc

Some fear that weakening opposition to the spread
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it likely to do so in the future. 

India’s non-reaction to Chinese nukes proves runaway prolif won’t happen

Jacques E. C. Hymans - assistant professor of government at Smith College - November 2005 “Think Again: Nuclear Proliferation” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3304

“States Want the Bomb Because It Is
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couldn’t build that crucial second-strike capability.

AT Nuke War Outweighs/Bad

Even if nuclear war broke out it wouldn’t escalate – no one gains from extinction

Kenneth N. Waltz - adjunct professor of political science @ Columbia, senior research scholar in the Institute of War and Peace - Sep., 1990 The American Political Science Review, Vol. 84, No. 3. “Nuclear Myths and Political Realities” pp. 731-745.

That one must be able to destroy a
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own destroyed in return is obvious to everyone.

Iran Prolif Good - Israel/Palestine

Iranian nuclearization will clarify Israel’s strategic thinking, and resolve the Palestinian issue

Justin Logan - foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute - December 4, 2006 No. 583 “The Bottom Line on Iran: The Costs and Benefits of Preventive War versus Deterrence”

Further, Israeli strategists have been considering the
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, it will also render it possible.136 

Israel has to moderate it’s stance with Palestine, or the region will be destroyed by nuclear war – Middle East proliferation sets the stage for global peace

Gabriel Kolko - leading historian of modern warfare, Distinguished Research Professor Emeritus at York University in Toronto - Aug 30, 2006 “The death of deterrence” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH30Ak03.html accessed June 30, 2007

Even more ominous, the US Army has
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or destroyed in the recent conflict with Hezbollah.

Impacts - Social Spending/Biodiversity/Disease

A - Middle East countries have high military spending, which trades off with social programs and economic growth

Richard Jolly - Honorary Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, U. of Sussex - 2004 June “Military spending and development” www.id21.org/insights/insights50/insights-iss50-art00.html accessed 8-24-07

In terms of national resources, many developing
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are associated with slow downs in economic growth.

B - Nuclear weapons make military buildups unnecessary, reducing spending

Avery Goldstein - Director of FPRI’s Asia Program and Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. - November 13, 2K “Why Nukes Still Trump: Deterrence and Security in the 21st Century” www.fpri.org/enotes/military.200001113.goldstein.nukesstilltrump.html access 8-24-07

The deterrent logic that guided China, Britain
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quantity or quality that satisfies their security needs.

C - Lack of social spending independently causes extinction – also kills biodiversity.

Peter Montague - Environmental Research Foundation - December 14, 1995 “RACHEL'S ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH WEEKLY #472” http://www.ejnet.org/rachel/rehw472.htm accessed 8-24-07

The loss of biodiversity is the most difficult
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create more productive social conditions. [14]

BioD loss = Extinction

David N. Diner, Winter 1994 (Military Law Review, 43 Mil. L. Rev. 161 THE ARMY AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT: WHO'S ENDANGERING WHOM? Judge Advocate General's Corps, United States Army)

The main premise of species preservation is that
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mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

Redirecting military to social spending is key to solve rapid spread of disease

Richard Jolly - Honorary Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, U. of Sussex - 2004 June “Military spending and development” www.id21.org/insights/insights50/insights-iss50-art00.html accessed 8-24-07

But not only is too much money being
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more peaceful and just twenty-first century’.

Diseases spread globally causing extinction, and turn every impact to the case

J.M. Spectar - Associate Provost for Academic Affairs & Professor of Political Science, University of Scranton, Ph.D. Claremont Graduate University, PA. – 2003 Indiana International & Comparative Law Review 13 Ind. Int'l & Comp. L. Rev. 481 p. 511-14

The Clinton Administration was also impelled to critically
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. That's why we must work together. 249

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1NC

A. The aff is a form of military action, not democracy assistance – democracy assistance is distinct from democracy promotion and excludes military action

Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, 2010 [Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.188-9, accessed 5-16-11, TP]

In defining democracy assistance, it is paramount
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precise instrument within a broader democracy  promotion paradigm. 

B. Vote Neg

1. Limits - They explode the topic by allowing for the infinite amount of democracy promotion affs that are distinct from “democracy assistance,” which is just a part of that 

2. Ground - We lose key neg generics like the military counterplan or disad

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Text vs Wyoming (IMET)

President Obama should authorize Frank Wisner to engage in backchannel talks with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt regarding whether the United States federal government should increase the democracy assistance portions of Expanded-International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.

The United States federal government should authorize Wisner to approve the increasing of the democracy assistance portions of Expanded-International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt in these backchannel negotiations.

1NC - Solvency

Normal means is that Wisner would be sent to engage in backchannel talks with the Egyptian government – it’s how we told Mubarak we were no longer backing him

The Guardian 2011
Egypt protests - Tuesday 1 February, February 2011, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/feb/01/egypt-protests-live-updates

President Obama has told theembattled president of Egypt
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transition" to a more politically open Egypt.

2NC Solvency - top level

Backchannel key to diplomacy – distrust on security runs high – accusations of pushing its own interests – the only way to achieve talks is to have them in secret to increase opacity of the security sector

This is particularly true in Egypt – the overt nature of the plan causes Egyptian backlash – anger over US pushing its interests causes public resentment.

Kodmani and Dubarry 2009
Bassma Kodmani is the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, a consortium of Arab and international think tanks with a joint program on reform in the Arab world, May Chartouni-Dubarry is a Senior Research Fellow in Middle-Eastern studies, “The Security Sector in Arab Countries: Can it be Reformed?" IDS Bulletin Volume 40, No 2, March

A second factor relates to the current context
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secretive and increases the opacity of the sector.

Backchannel provides the greatest flexibility and ability to exert pressure – most effective way of making policy changes

Dunne 2008
Michele Dunne, editor of the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin, and visiting assistant professor of Arabic at Georgetown University. A specialist on Middle East affairs, formerly at the State Department and White House, Beyond the façade: political reform in the Arab world

Economic and military assistance, as well as
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open up the system to a greater degree.

PRIVATE PRESSURE ALLOWS US TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE RELATIONS IN PUBLIC – Obama’s Egypt policy is proof

Nicholson and Schaffer 2011
Kailyn and Anna, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, 3-10

The recent release of WikiLeaks documents has revealed
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administration-underscoring yet another sign of inconsistency.

Backchannel provides the greatest flexibility for talks to occur – informality and intimacy create common ground and concessions

Pruitt 2008
Dean G. Pruitt, Distinguished Scholar in Residence at the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution and SUNY, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University at Buffalo: State University of New York, 2008 (Back-channel Communication in the Settlement of Conflict, International Negotiation, 13 (2008), 37–54)

One of the big problems with front-
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, apply to totally back-channel negotiation.

Backchannel ends bluffing – parties maintain adversarial posture while de-escalating the conflict in secret – not perceived.

Wanis-St. John 2005
Anthony Wanis-St. John, Research Associate with the Center for International Conflict Resolution at Columbia University, March 14, 2005 (Back Channel Diplomacy: Implications for Practice & Theory, http://btvshalom.org/resources/backchanneldiplomacy_20080403.pdf)

In many complex international conflicts, a significant
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military offensives with quiet diplomatic overtures to them.

2NC Solvency - SCAF Relations

Messages communicated in the back channel are the same as public talks – the government will be reassured

Gibbs 2011
Robert Gibbs, former press secretary, January 31, 2011, PRESS BRIEFING BY PRESS SECRETARY ROBERT GIBBS, Time, http://thepage.time.com/2011/01/31/gibbs-briefs-162/

Q Robert, can you assure us that
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different than what people heard in the region.

Back-channel negotiation key to stable relations with the Egyptian military – reaffirms that we’re backing them

Pessin 2011
Al Pessin, January 31, 2011, VOA News, US-Egypt Military Relationship Might Impact Crisis, http://www.understandingwar.org/print/1494

"When the demonstrations in Egypt began last
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reason, be less helpful," he said."

Backchannel is the best way to engage the SCAF – it makes up for the shortcomings of conventional diplomacy.

The Economist 2011
The Economist, February 24, 2011, The ties that bind, http://www.economist.com/node/18227542

NOBODY knows whether Egypt’s army will steer the
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learn our philosophies of civil-military relations.”

2NC - AT links to politics/track 2 diplomacy

Backchannel isn’t the same as Track II – track II diplomats don’t negotiate political agreements

Wanis-St. John 2006
Anthony Wanis-St. John, assistant professor in the International Peace and Conflict Resolution
program at American University, research associate at the Center for International Conflict Resolution at Columbia University, April 2006 (Back-Channel Negotiation: International Bargaining in the Shadows, Negotiation Journal, http://www.aupeace.org/files/Wanis_BackChannelNegotiation.pdf)

The fact that back-channel negotiators seem
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commitments on behalf of the party they represent.

2NC AT Perm

1. Backchannel is not consistent with the 1AC – the 1AC depends on high-profile public democracy assistance – either they don’t solve the signal of the aff or the perm is severance.

2. Perm doesn’t solve – Combining the two jacks the effectiveness of both – back-channel is a prerequisite to effective front-channel negotiations because it lays the groundwork for successful talks – otherwise parties will just posture killing conflict resolution – that’s Pruitt on the overview

3. Non-sensical – can’t both do the plan in public and behind closed doors at the same time.

4. Perm is severance – voting issue because it jacks stable neg ground

a – Severs out of resolved – it means to be firmly determined.

OED 2005
The Oxford Dictionary of English (2nd edition revised), 2005 

resolved adjective [predic., with infinitive] firmly determined to do something

b – The resolution mandates the increase must be substantial, this means unconditonal

Words and Phrases 1964 (40 W&P 759)

The words “outward, open, actual
AND 

undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.

c – Proves competition – the counterplan is less engagement than the plan

Carothers 2k
Thomas Carothers, The Clinton Record on Democracy Promotion, Critical mission: essays on democracy promotion, p. 40

No simple, black-and-white
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political developments in the world and at home. 

5. Backchannel avoids the appearance of meddling

Parker 2010
Elizabeth Rindskopf, Dean, University of the Pacific, McGeorge School of Law; Suffolk University Law Review, 43 Suffolk U. L. Rev. 829

We must also be careful that we do
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that we confront a weakened military through overuse. 

6. High policy DA

a. The plan is high policy – it’s top level diplomacy. In contrast the counterplan is low policy – it’s much quieter and less visible.

Carothers 2009
Thomas Carothers LSE UNDP Development and Transition, April 2009, Democracy Assistance Without a Plan, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=23023

US democracy assistance has ‘high’ and ‘
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has not varied much from administration to administration.

b. And “Low policy” approaches are critical to avoiding credibility backlashes

Carothers 2009
Thomas Carothers, LSE UNDP Development and Transition, April 2009, Democracy Assistance Without a Plan, http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=23023

Does this ‘low policy’ continuity mean that
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promotion to operate in a more favourable environment.

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1NC

High profile US assistance prevents sustainable US-Egyptian relations 

Cook 2011
Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations 11 (“Foreign Policy: US Can't Hijack Egypt's Revolution”, http://www.npr.org/2011/03/14/134417495/foreign-policy-us-cant-hijack-egypts-revolution)

The main reason is that Egyptians remain distrustful
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— is likely to embitter all parties involved.

Loss of US military relations with Egypt will cripple every facet of US power in the Middle East – cuts off aircraft carriers access to the Suez Canal and Iranian aggression.

Wood 11
David Wood Winner of the Gerald Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense, lectured at the Marine Staff College, the Joint Forces Staff College and the Army's Eisenhower Fellows conference 11 (“At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East”, 2/5/11 http://www.cnas.org/node/5654)  

Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the
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are not well postured for that eventuality.''

2NC - Relations Impact

US-Egyptian relations key to regional stability and US hegemony – power projection and maintains the peace with Israel.

Council on Foreign Relations 2002
(Council on Foreign Relations Press, May 2002, Strengthening the U.S.-Egyptian Relationship,http://www.cfr.org/publication/8666/strengthening_the_usegyptian_relationship_a_cfr_paper.html)

The U.S.-Egyptian relationship
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drastically recast the management of the Middle East.

2NC - Carriers Impact

Ability to deploy carriers guarantees crisis management – prevents conflict escalation 

Eaglen ‘8
Eaglen, Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, 8-1-8’ (Mackenzie, “Aircraft Carriers Are Crucial”, The Washington Post)

For any U.S. president,
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, "plentiful, and ready to serve."

1NC

The GOP supported the extension, and their opposition is sliding. 

Thrush, 1/3 [Glenn, 2012, Politico, “W.H. to Boehner: Ditch the GOP, pass bills.”] 

A senior White House official challenged House Speaker
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,” remains a long shot, officials said.

PC key to payroll taxes. 

Mail Online UK 11 [10/13, 'I won't take no for an answer on jobs bill': Defiant Obama vows to continue despite Senate defeat.”] 

President Barack Obama has recorded a defiant new
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now back the bill, according to SBS.

PTC avoids an economic downfall.

Plumer, 9/8 [Brad, 2011, The Washington Post, “Just how effective is the payroll tax cut?”]

President Obama is expected to call for an
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, it will at least avert further degradation.

Economic recovery key to prevent nuclear WWIII

O'Donnell  09 (Sean, 2-26Baltimore Republic Examiner, “Will this recession lead to World War III?”, http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III.)

Could the current economic crisis affecting this country
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is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.

Link - Egypt

Egypt specifically controversial

Walt 11 (Stephen, Prof @ Harvard, M., “10 Reasons Americans Should Care About the Egyptian Revolution”, 2/10) 

Finally, Americans need to watch what is
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Egypt (and on the administration) today.

Link - Yemen

Aid to Yemen is unpopular – Congressional concerns

Jeremy Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 10-6-2011, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations”  “http:www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf

There are a number of reasons why FMF
AND
as well as between governments and their citizens.”

1NC

Text: The US will provide substantial assistance to the governments of Jordan and Saudi Arabia to be used for training Yemini law-enforcement. 

The CP is critical to avoid high profile blowback against the US

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter, Captain in the US Naval Reserve, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 5/16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)

While operating in Yemen, these groups must
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bombings) that would only further AQAP’s cause.

AT Terrorism

AQAP’s recruitment tactics are failing in the squo.

From THE COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT 11 (September, "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen")

While compelling, this picture of AQAP is
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serious questions about AQAP’s local character and focus.

The status quo solves – we got intel on the October printer bomber from Saudi Arabia, got intel about Awlaki from the National Security Bureau, they have no example of when intel has broken down

The AQAP threat is over-exaggerated

A. There’s only a couple dozen AQAP who want to attack the US – the rest are just part-time soldiers who’re protesting Saleh

Raghavan 10-6       Sudarsan, Washingtonpost.com, Pg. A01

While AQAP is "fighting a ground war
AND
adviser John O. Brennan said last month.

B. Even the Yemeni government thinks the media is over-exaggerating 

Lewis 11 (Alexandra, researcher and doctoral candidate at the Post-War Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of New York, "Stabilizing Yemen," Atlantic Community, February 11,  http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Stabilizing_Yemen)

The Government of Yemen in the meantime,
AND
in its struggle to restore order and security.

Don’t know where key leaders are means you can’t solve – you can’t prevent terror in the short timeframe that your aff says is key to solve.

Plan can’t solve – tribes shelter AQAP members – drone strikes would cause more civilian deaths.

Spencer 11 [James, 8/19, Journal Article, “Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula: MOs & Deductions.”]

AQAP are clearly present among the tribes,
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will resist the Jihadis vigorously on religious grounds.

Turn – anti-terror focus bad

a. High profile assistance guts legitimacy – US anti-terror assistance will be shunned

Burke 10 (Edward, researcher at FRIDA, ‘Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen’, May 2010)

The US government has enjoyed a mixed reputation
AND
the President, rather than being independent entities.

b. It prevents democracy assistance from solving – no way to pressure the government or create long-term stability.

Burke 10 (Edward, researcher at FRIDA, ‘Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen’, May 2010)

Surprisingly given the US-led ‘war
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did not apply sufficient pressure upon the government.

There is absolutely no risk of terrorism – the aff's claims are baseless fantasies about al Qaeda and its capabilities.

Gerges 1/3 [Fawaz, professor of IR @ London School of Economics, his most recent book is The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda, “The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda: Debunking the Terrorism Narrative”, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fawaz-gerges/the-rise-and-fall-of-alqa_b_1182003.html]

The popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt,
AND
the European colonial legacy of domination and subjugation.

Your terrorism arguments are wrong – they reflect who Fox news chooses to interview.  Most Arab intellectuals don’t care about terrorism

Baroud 8-15     Ramzy, The Morning Star, The US-Arab disconnect, http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/108277

As the Arab Spring continues to challenge dictators
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are no longer willing to accept that reality.

nuclear terrorism is highly unlikely.

Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment 11 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf  ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

The expert community distinguishes pathways terrorists might take
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sell it for profit to the highest bidder.

Three elements means high risk of weapon assembly failure and detection by authorities

1.  Lack of 5 necessary technologies

Milhollin 2 (Gary Milhollin is director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. “Can Terrorists Get The Bomb?” Commentary Magazine.  February, pp. 45-9. http://www.wisconsinproject.org/pubs/articles/2002/terror-bomb.htm)

If terrorists did procure some weapon-ready
AND
an implosion bomb to work are rather small.

2.  Reshaping nuclear material

Levi 7 (Michael Levi is Fellow for Science and Technology at the Council on Foreign Relations. “On Nuclear Terrorism.” p. 46)

Although many terrorist groups may be able to
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introduce multiple opportunities for failure or reduced impact.

3.  Necessary tests increase risk of detection

Levi 7 (Michael Levi is Fellow for Science and Technology at the Council on Foreign Relations. “On Nuclear Terrorism.” pp 38-39)

A gun of the appropriate size could probably
AND
of the smaller hurdles in a terrorist plot.

Drone Strikes Bad (vs CSUN LL)

Drone strikes kill the rule of law

Kucinich ’11 (Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Drones Direct Hit Upon Rule Of Law, Huffington Post, August 17, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-dennis-kucinich/drones-direct-hit-upon-ru_b_929203.html)

Think of the use of drone air strikes
AND
unmanned drones severely undermines the rule of law.

Rule of law key to preventing worst kinds of war & prevents escalation

Randall Peerenboom, Professor of Law, UCLA Law, Spring 2005 (“Human Rights and Rule of Law: What’s the Relationship?” Georgetown Journal of International Law, 36 Geo. J. Int'l L. 809, Pg. l/n)

Rule of law is said to facilitate geopolitical
AND
a rights-respecting xpost-conflict regime.

Drone strikes cause Yemeni state collapse – causes prolif and terrorism

Wheeler ’11 (Dr. Marcy, blogger and author. “The Drone War on Westphalia” emptywheel.net, 7/4/11, http://www.emptywheel.net/2011/07/04/the-drone-war-on-westphalia/)

Pakistan and Yemen: Here’s where the secrecy
AND
and unwittingly pursuing policies that accelerate the process.

Ramping up strikes kills gov legitimacy – causes huge backlash that creates widespread instability – turns the case. AND intelligence gathering is key – proves the CP solves better.

Mayborn ’11 (William Mayborn, Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen, April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf)

The second reason that the U.S
AND
intelligence gathering purposes, rather than counterproductive missile strikes

The status quo solves – Obama’s going to ramp up drone strikes

Mayborn ’11 (William Mayborn, Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen, April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf)

The above policy indicators of increased military assistance
AND
strategic goals of defeating AQAP for several reasons.

Plan trades off with police training – that’s key to solve.

Mayborn ’11 (William Mayborn, Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen, April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf)

First, UAV targeted killings should not be
AND
counter-terrorism is a police issue. 40

No solvency – reform of terror laws and increased prison security are key

Mayborn ’11 (William Mayborn, Creating More Turmoil: Why UAV strikes Will Be Counterproductive in Yemen, April 2011, http://satsa.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/WilliamMayborn.pdf)

To support police efforts Yemeni law makers will
AND
Qaeda leaders escaped from a Yemeni prison. 43

Aff can’t win hearts and minds – Yemenis don’t care about the US’s war on terror- they care about the devastating humanitarian crisis and water shortage they are facing. Continuing to focus on counterterrorism makes us look out of touch with realities on the ground. 

Sofer 11 Ken Sofer, Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress “In Yemen, While Americans Focus On Al Qaeda Threat, Yemenis Are Concerned About Access To Water” http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/06/16/246852/yemen-al-qaeda-access-water/

Yemen used to be an afterthought in the
AND
not AQAP, it’s the water, stupid.

Winning hearts and minds by shifting away from counter-terrorism key to stop AQAP recruitment

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach
AND
which to launch attacks against the United States.

Text vs CSUN LL

The United States federal government should increase developmental aid to the Republic of Yemen.

1NC Solvency

Development eliminates both public and political instability. 

USAID 10 [“2010-2010 Yemen Country Strategy.”] 

USAID’s overarching strategic goal in Yemen is to
AND
expertise to execute, organize or manage such activities

Development aid solve terrorism best – creation of infrastructure turns tribes against AQAP 

Peter Knoetgen, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

For security forces to establish a presence in
AND
role of a strategic weapon against Yemeni terrorism.

2NC Solvency - Instability

Strong economic conditions solve instability.

ARD 4 ["Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 UnderUSAID Contract, February, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACX728.pdf]

Yemen’s tendency toward fragmentation and the historical weakness
AND
very limited in many parts of the country.

Civil unrest is caused by its socioeconomic problems.

UNDP 10 [United Nations Development Program, May, “Re-thinking the Approaches to Local Governance Programming in Conflict Affected Countries in the Arab Region.”] 

Yemen’s problems are different. Since unification in
AND
growing distrust between the central state and local authorities

2NC Solvency - Terrorism

Social chaos prevents the U.S. from cooperating with Yemen on counterterrorism efforts.

Sharp 11 [Jeremy M., 2011, Congressional Research Service, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations.”]

As the country’s population rapidly rises, resources
AND
Yemeni cooperation in other economic or political reform efforts

The CP solves hearts and minds – empirically proven.

Barber 10 [Ben, 11/7, McClatchy Newspapers, “Commentary: U.S. foreign aid can win hearts and minds.”]

Can U.S. foreign aid –
AND
for partnership and progress on our shrinking planet.

CP solves the root cause of terrorism.

ARD 4 ["Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 UnderUSAID Contract, February, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACX728.pdf]

Despite efforts to incorporate moderate Islamists, the
AND
the root social and economic causes of terrorism.

2NC AT: Links to Saudi DA

Development is better as a strategy to not isolate Saudi Arabia.  And the development model is a better framework to not over-emphasize democracy

Glenn 11
Scott, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, 3-10

In order to break these factors the U
AND
Arabia, a development program should be attainable.

UQ - heg sustainable

Unipolarity is sustainable – any attempt at balancing would be thwarted by regional actors before a balancer could challenge the U.S. 

William C. Wohlforth, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, Summer 1999, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1, p. 8-9

Third, the current unipolarity is not only
AND
Pentagon’s 1992 draft defense guidance plan was right. 

The current power gap is totally different than all other examples of hegemonic states – the confluence of factors makes heg super-sustainable

William C. Wohlforth, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, Summer 1999, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1, p. 20

Moreover, the power gap in the United
AND
and which might make a bid for hegemony. 

Heg key to Econ

Primacy is key to the liberal world economy 

Stephen Walt, the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Spring 2002, Naval War College Review, Vol. LV, No. 2, p. 13-14

By facilitating the development of a more open
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, there will be no America Online.”13

Heg solves Middle East war

US withdrawal from the gulf leads to war

Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1995 

In the Persian Gulf, U.S
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the U.S. standard of living. 

Heg solves Asia war

U.S. Heg prevents war, prolif, and economic decline in Asia 

Robert J. Lieber, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown University, 2005, The American Era: Power and Strategy for the 21st Century, p. 174-175

Taken together, these Asian involvements are not
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” crucial for the region’s stability and economic prosperity37

Heg solves Prolif/Nuke War

US leadership prevents allied proliferation

Michael Mandelbaum, professor of US Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins, “Turbulent Peace,” Strategic Forum, Number 64, February, 1996, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/forum64.html, accessed 8/10/02

Among the major powers, the role of
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reassurance, which leads to a final issue.

U.S. hegemony prevents nuclear wars across the globe 

Robert Kagan, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund, August/September 2007, The Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html, accessed August 17, 2007

The jostling for status and influence among these
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or it could simply make them more catastrophic.

No Heg -> Transition Wars

Even if some conflict is inevitable, a U.S. withdrawal makes war across the globe far more likely – prefer this ev because it’s comparative 

Robert Kagan, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund, August/September 2007, The Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html, accessed August 17, 2007

The current order, of course, is
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unleash an ambitious, independent, nationalist Japan.

Shifts in hegemonic power cause war

Joseph Nye, Assistant Secretary of Defense, Washington Quarterly, Winter, 1996

There are two basic schools of thought that
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and needed only when they are not effective.