Contention 1 – The Status Quo
Access to information is a key battleground in Syria – citizens and the government are locked in a struggle for greater control
Susannah Vila, April 18, 2011,
“Amid protest, is the Syrian online space redefining internet freedom?”
http://www.movements.org/blog/entry/Syria-Damascus-internet-freedom-protest-online-activism-facebook-twitter/
Assad welcomed freer access to information under the assumption that he could control it
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and tech savvy, activated citizens unfolds in real time.
The Syrian government is winning – they have mixed denial of access, liberalization, surveillance and counter-propaganda in unique ways to control its people.
Jillian York, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, June 1, 2011
“The Dark Side Of The Syrian Internet”
http://www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/06/the-dark-side-of-the-syrian-internet/
In his book, The Net Delusion, released in early 2011, Evgeny Morozov warned us of the dark
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alike. A competing narrative had emerged and seeks to challenge — and stifle — the narrative of freedom.
The US and EU are applying pressure now
POMED 11/29/11 (Project on Middle East Democracy, “U.S. Pressures Syria, Russia Won’t Support Arms Embargo”, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/11/u-s-pressures-syria-russia-wont-support-arms-embargo.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29#.TtXfMHMbX58)
As violence escalates in Syria with reports documenting mass atrocities, international pressure has mounted on Syria
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also expressed concern over the atrocities committed by the Syrian government, and urged states to act on the U.N. report.
Current US export policy is stifling for Syrian internet users – fear of export controls means companies don’t provide tech to Syria – Syrians can only get pirated versions of software and no access to opensource projects.
Jillian York, June 16, 2010, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, The Guardian, “US gives Iran more net freedom – but what about Syria?” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/jun/16/internet-iran-syria-export-controls
Iran, of course, is an obvious target for these amendments,
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and what that means for the United States' "brand" of internet freedom.
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology to Syrians, including hardware, software and training.
Contention 2 – Syria
Syria is on the brink of civil war
Dr. Randa Slim, a research fellow at the New America Foundation being interviewed by PBS 11 (“A Closer Look at Syria’s Fragmented Opposition”, 11/10/11 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/syria-undercover/a-closer-look-at-syrias-fragmented-opposition/)
There is a serious risk of Syria eventually descending into a protracted, low-intensity armed
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Syrian opposition, thus increasing the prospect of an armed struggle.
Sanctions have crippled Syria’s economy and Assad has nowhere to turn to
Anderson ‘11 (“Syria: 30 years on, are sanctions finally starting to pinch?” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Nov-09/153428-syria-30-years-on-are-sanctions-finally-starting-to-pinch.ashx#axzz1dQzptIvf)
Syria’s political leadership has weathered sanctions for over three decades, but experts say a
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peaceful solution they might have, which will make the crisis worse.”
He’ll collapse—business class and international isolation
Morgan Roach studies and writes about Africa, the Middle East and transatlantic relations as research associate in The Heritage Foundation 11 (“Arab Spring: Winners and Losers in 2011”, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/12/06/arab-spring-winners-and-losers-in-2011/)
With widespread unrest throughout the spring and summer, the Assad regime has lost
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regimes. It is becoming increasingly likely that in 2012 Syria will undergo a government transition. With power dwindling rapidly, the Assad regime is running out of options.
Assad will fall and it’s just a matter of time – less than 1% chance he stays
Wall Street Journal ’11 (Syria Opposition Leader Interview Transcript – interview between Burhan Ghalioun, the leader of the Syrian National Council, and the Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833104577071960384240668.html)
All of the businessmen are annoyed because of Assad's handling of the situation and bad governance.
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There isn't even a 1% chance that Assad will survive. The only way he can carry on—if he does—is to continue the killing. They know if they stop killing they're over.
It’ll be in the next few weeks
AFP ’12 (Syria's Assad has only 'few weeks' left in control: Israel, AFP, January 2, http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Syria+Assad+only+weeks+left+control+Israel/5935890/story.html)
JERUSALEM - The family of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has only "a few weeks" left in
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Committees network of activists put the number at 5,862 including 395 children and 146 women.
The result of a full-out civil war will be genocide – all the warning signs are present and Syria is a uniquely high risk.
Genocide Watch, June 7, 2011, Coordinator of the International Alliance to End Genocide, “Genocide and Mass Atrocity Warning: Syria” http://www.genocidewatch.org/syria.html
Since the beginning of March, the stability of the Syrian Arab Republic has degenerated at an
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history of violence against dissenters in Syria it is evident that this is a high risk situation for the residents in targeted cities.
Preventing genocide outweighs – it’s an overriding ethical concern
Harff-Gur, Professor at Northwestern University, 1981 (Humanitarian Intervention as a Remedy for Genocide, pp. 37-41)
Much has been written about the evil of wars their possible prevention. Though pessimism remains about whether wars can be avoided
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existence, which enables them to build such systems to protect and enhance their interests and ideals
Now the impacts:
First – Israel-Iran War
Collapse causes Assad to provoke a war with Israel and Iran – proxies will get drawn in and escalate the conflict – Israel will face a multi-front war which engulfs the region
Ceren, 2011 (Omri Ceren, Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get? Commentary, August 1, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)
But the continued stability of the Syrian regime is only one highly unpleasant option. The other side of that coin is Assad will
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stopping the rockets raining down on Israeli cities, and confronting state-backed Arab armies for the first time in decades.
Draws in all nations – causes extinction
Stirling, 2010 (Lord Timothy Stirling, B. sc. In Poli Sci, M.A. in European Studies, holds several Scottish/Canadian feudal titles, 4-17-2010, “Jordan's King Warns Mideast War 'Imminent',” Rense, http://www.rense.com/general90/jordd.htm)
This is rather frighting information. The Jordanian Royal Family is always well up-to-date on the intelligence of what is happening and
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This will be a fatal shortcoming that future historians will write about someday, assuming anyone is left to write about it.
It also means Assad will release Syria’s bioweapons as he goes down
Ceren, 2011 (Omri Ceren, Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get? Commentary, August 1, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)
That’s not the worst case scenario, though. The worst case scenario is one where, as the IDF made quick
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a desperate and surreal situation that will not cause Israeli politicians to overreact less.
The US is disastrously underprepared for a bioweapons attack now – Syria is uniquely unstable.
Matishak ‘11 (Martin Matishak, U.S. Receives Poor Marks in Latest Biodefense Report Card, Global Security Newswire, Ocotber 13, 2011, http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20111013_2213.php)
WASHINGTON Despite improvements made over the last decade, the United States remains broadly AND
the "quantity, quality and trend line of their development of biological capabilities," according to Graham, who did not elaborate.
Syrian bioweapons use outweighs nuclear war in magnitude
Dr. Uwe Siemon-Netto, former religious affairs editor of United Press International, September 5, 2011, International journalist for 55 years, Currently directs the League of Faithful Masks and Center for Lutheran Theology and Public Life in Irvine, California.“Saddam’s Bio Arms – Wait Till Syria Falls” http://uwesiemon.blogspot.com/2011/09/saddams-bio-arms-wait-till-syria-falls.html
My intensive research began more than one year before “Curveball’s” defection to Germany.
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it seemed to me extraordinarily irresponsible to trivialize this problem into an issue for petty partisan bickering.
Assad will use smallpox – or he’ll give it to terrorists for dispersal.
Jerome R. Corsi, March 5, 2007, WND's senior staff reporter, Corsi is a senior managing director at Gilford Securities.“Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran” http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=40459 (Jill Bellamy-Decker currently directs the Public Health Preparedness program for the European Homeland Security Association under the French High Committee for Civil Defense.)
WND asked Bellamy-Decker if the Syrians have any history of having used biological weapons."
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or even if civilians were infected as well, as long as they are vaccinated. I think it is a real threat."
Smallpox release causes extinction
Clifford E. Singer, professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign, Spring 2001 (Swords and Ploughshares, http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/homepage_docs/pubs_docs/S&P_docs/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm)
There are, however, two technologies currently under development that may pose a more serious
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and thus the survival of a globally connected human family may be in question when and if this is achieved.
Our impact is most probable – civil war creates safe havens for Al Qaeda
Daniel L. Byman, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy
The Brookings Institution 11 (“Can Al Qaeda Capitalize on Unrest in Egypt and Syria?”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1201_alqaeda_democracy_byman.aspx)
Opportunities for al Qaeda will also arise if unrest turns to civil war, as is happening in Syria
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Should democratization fail in these countries, al Qaeda may find new life.
Second – Saudi-Iran War
Saudi Arabia and Iran will fight over the transition – it’s the new center point of tensions.
Kamel ‘11 Ayham Kamel is an analyst in Eurasia Group's Middle East practice group. “Saudi Arabia and Iran set to jockey for position in Syria” http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/11/saudi_arabia_and_iran_set_to_jockey_for_position_in_syria
Saudi leaders, meanwhile, are still on the fence about what the kingdom's Syria policy
should be.
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In the meantime, all eyes are on Ankara to see if Turkey's leaders will be able to convince Assad to accelerate his reform program and resolve the crisis.
Increased tensions cause a regional arms race
Spindle and Coker 2011
Bill, Maraget, WSJ, 4-16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_World_LeadStory
"The cold war is a reality," says one senior Saudi official. "Iran is looking to expand its influence.
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it could exacerbate what many fear is a looming nuclear arms race in the region.
Middle Eastern arms race goes nuclear.
Cirincione 2007
Joseph, Director of Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress, "Apocalypse When?," November 12th, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=15998, AD 7/7/11
Third is the risk of new nuclear nations. I agree with Mueller that the danger here is not that Iran or North Korea
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not one nuclear-weapons state, Israel, but four or five. That is a recipe for nuclear war.
Third – Turkey
Syrian violence causes mass refugee flows into Turkey – tensions could erupt into violence at any time – conflict will draw in NATO, Iran, Russia and China into World War III.
Pakalert Press, June 28, 2011 “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?” http://www.pakalertpress.com/2011/06/28/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey/
In recent days, there have been persistent rumors that we could potentially be on the verge of a military conflict
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When it does, let us just hope that World War III does not erupt as a result.
War originating in Syria has the highest potential to draw in great powers
Peter Apps Global Risk Correspondant—Reuters 11 (“Analysis: Syrian civil war drags in Mideast, global powers”, http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/12209951/analysis-syrian-civil-war-drags-in-mideast-global-powers/)
As Syria's uprising escalates into outright civil war and begins to drag in other states
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"Nature abhors vacuums and so do rising great powers."
Contention 3 – Solvency
Greater ICT access reduces the scope of violence in Syria. We will identify several specifics reasons
First, Citizen journalism – Individual access to video and news is an essential source for the outside world. Government news bans prevent outside media from showing the world what is happening in Syria.
Ma’an News 11 (“Citizen journalism keeps Syria uprising alive” Ma’an News Agency, Thursday 26/05/2011. Source:
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=391409)
BEIRUT (AFP) Defying a state-imposed media blackout…and fed into international mainstream media outlets."
This social media content is essential deterring atrocities, even if Assad wants to harm his people he will stop because he can’t hide evidence
Nidaa Hassan, The Guardian, June 8, 2011
“Syria: How social media is defending a town from the regime's wrath”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/syria-hide-uprising-internet
The Syrian regime's apparent hesitancy to bear down …and usually uploaded by computer shortly afterwards.
Second – large scale social organization – Assad is using internet monitoring to block protestors from using social media tools to organize – their reluctance to use these tools uniquely hampering large-scale gatherings.
Kendra Srivastava, August 3, 2011, “Syrian Protestors Scared to Use Facebook, Twitter” http://www.mobiledia.com/news/101219.html
Syrian protestors are scared to use Facebook and Twitter… with the aim of preventing people from rallying against him on Facebook and in the streets.
A quick victory by opposition possible if more Syrians take part in the demonstrations – fear of the regime prevents this mobilization which can stop a civil war.
Carnegie Middle East Center 2011 <The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Turmoil in Syria and the Regional Consequences” Tamara Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State Murhaf Jouejati, Professor of Middle East Studies, National Defense University Ammar Abdulhamid, Founder and Director, The Tharwa Foundation Itamar Rabinovich, Charles Bronfman Distinguished Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Paul Salem, Director, Carnegie Middle East Center http://carnegie-mec.org/events/?fa=3267>
Possible Scenarios for Change The panelists agreed that a return to the status quo … But there is still a wall of fear preventing many people from demonstrating, he added.
Third, nonviolent protests – Evidence from across the Arab Spring proves social media activism is critical to preventing mass protests from becoming violent.
Stepanova 11 (Ekaterina, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences. “The Role of Information Communication Technologies in the “Arab Spring”: IMPLICATIONS BEYOND THE REGION.” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 159, May 2011)
If there is a positive pattern to discern in the impact of Internet-based … This pattern is certainly one that merits further empirical and analytical investigation.
Fourth, speed – ICT accelerates social change – the Arab Spring proves that social trends can quickly change and topple governments that seem very secure
Fontaine & Rogers, Center for New American Security, June 2011, Richard Fontaine - Senior Fellow, Will Rogers -Research Associate “Internet Freedom: A Foreign Policy Imperative in the Digital Age” p. 18, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_InternetFreedom_FontaineRogers_0.pdf
In addition to the political and economic effects described above…that had been in power for decades in a matter of weeks. 63
The status quo’s piecemeal approach means Google, Java, and SoureForge can’t get products into Syria – companies have blocked tools and restricted their services
Jillian York, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, September 26, 2011, “Stop the Piecemeal: Obama Administration Should Fully Free Communications Tech Exports to Syria (& Companies Should Help)” https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2011/09/stop-the-piecemeal-export-approach
EFF has long complained about export restrictions by the …that wants to take these steps but doesn’t have the resources to do it.
