Contention 1: Mixed Signals

The death of Al-Awlaki has given Saleh new life- Protesters fear the US will continue to support Saleh for Counter-terrorism cooperation.

FT 9/30 “Saleh must begin ‘transfer of power’, says US” Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aea3e4a2-eb76-11e0-a576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZTTSPhYt

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh must begin the

AND

during an attack on his compound in June.

The people of Yemen still view US assistance through a counterterrorism frame

Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

to be all about drone strikes on terrorists.

Plan

Plan: The United States Federal Government should send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administration Raj Shah to Yemen in order to advise the Yemeni Vice President Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi concerning the transition planning away from President Saleh’s regime and toward transparent and fair elections coupled with a competitive political process. The United States Federal Government should appoint Raj Shah as a special envoy to Yemen with the express purpose of ensuring an immediate transition of power.

Contention 2: The Most Dangerous Game

Saleh is playing a double-game in Yemen – he is systematically enabling Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula while simultaneously using their growing strength as leverage for US support

James Gundun 9/21/11 (Political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “The Plot Thickens in Yemen.” The Palestinian Chronicle. http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17122)

After enabling AQAP’s takeover of Abyan governorate -

AND

Saleh’s unstable rule over a potentially free Yemen.

Saleh’s unwillingness to control territory in the south makes Yemen a safe-haven for AQAP

Christopher Boucek, September 2009 (Associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Number 102. < http://www.scribd.com/doc/19809794/Yemen-Avoiding-a-Downward-Spiral>

After several serious terrorist attacks in the early

AND

resurgence in Yemen is increasingly becoming a reality.

AQAP is planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public

Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

AND

succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

AQAP is planning attacks on US – evidence is from their magazine, not just based on US speculation.

Sharp 11 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf

Overall, AQAP seeks to: • Attack

AND

before he could install and detonate the explosives.

Successful AQAP attack leads to US retaliation and invasion

Andrew Terrill, January 2011 (Phd. Fellow for the Strategic Studies Institute. Retired U.S. Army Reserve Liutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer, The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security, <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=1040>

The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should

AND

radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

AND

and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett, 8/5/11 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

AND

, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>

If only conventional bombs are used in an

AND

underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

AND

which to launch attacks against the United States.

Cooperating with Yemenis is crucial to intelligence gathering about AQAP

Peter Knoetgen 11, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

While efforts to combat the long-term

AND

US policy and identify its proper main efforts.

Contention 3: Saudi Arabia

US-Saudi relations low now because of the US’s misguided policies towards the Arab spring.

Bakir 9/25 Ali Huseyin Bakir, USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies “Palestinian Statehood Deepens Saudi-U.S. Split – Analysis” Eurasia Review http://www.eurasiareview.com/25092011-palestinian-statehood-deepens-saudi-u-s-split-analysis/

Taking all this into consideration, the United

AND

backfired more often than not and spread instability.”

Saudi Arabia just wants a smooth transition

Financial Times 11 “Saudis prepare to abandon Yemen” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb7e6b94-54b6-11e0-b1ed-00144feab49a.html#axzz1UnQo8lFx

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has

AND

the support of the revolt against Mr Saleh.

The Saudis are divided – but they all want a stable Yemen

Reuters 9/21/11(Angus McDowall, staff writer, “Analysis: Saudi Arabia hesitant in pressing Saleh to quit” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/us-yemen-saudi-idUSTRE78K3UG20110921)

Analysts say the ruling al-Saud family

AND

the kingdom's efforts to root out al Qaeda.

The Saudi prioritize stability over everything else – they’ll get on board

Reuters 11 (6/18, Analysis: Yemen crisis puts Saudi in powerbroker's bind, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/18/us-saudi-yemen-idUSTRE75H16T20110618)

Saudi Arabia has emerged as the decisive player

AND

-Qaeda terror activities sooner rather than later.”

The plan is an act of cooperation that spills over to the rest of the relationship

Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, June 21, 2011, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il

Oftentimes, American officials want to go to

AND

work toward advancing both countries’ goals and interests.

Instability causes Saudi Arabia to start exporting more oil to China – causes US-China war

Luft 4 [Gal, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security, specializes in strategy, geopolitics, terrorism, Middle East and energy security,  Los Angeles Times, “US, China Are on Collision Course Over Oil” http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/oil/2004/0202collision.htm]

Optimists claim that the world oil market will

AND

a position to halt China's slide into total dependency

The US and China will clash over access to Saudi oil – causes escalatory US-China war.

Alterman and Garver 08 Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the CSIS Middle East Program, and John W. Garver, professor of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East Chapter One – Introduction, October 15, 2008, http://www.susris.com/articles/2008/ioi/081015-triangle-intro.html

In the global hunt for oil, the

AND

are serious enough that they bear prolonged examination.

Contention 4: Changing the frame

Independent of whether the plan leads to a successful transition – the plan has a lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

Plan solves political factions to assure speedy transition through regional partners, strengthens the oppositions ability to beat AQAP and mitigates the underlying grievances AQAP exploits in Yemen.

Green 9/29 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Yemen, Al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency and stability operations, ‘Yemen’s Saleh Strikes Back’)

Washington can take a variety of immediate steps

AND

of partnering with international representatives in joint consulates. 

T

1. we meet: the substance of the talks would be about democratic reform of the Yemeni political system in order to change institutions, procedures, political and civil societies.

2. Counterinterp-- Democracy assistance must be positive support for the explicit purpose of supporting reform-minded governments to move towards democracy.

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8

[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

AND

implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

Assistance includes cooperative and diplomatic endeavors – Even high-level talks is used to support democracy

Mitchell 8, Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and Phillips, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director,

[Lincoln A. and David L., Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar, Jan 08, “Enhancing  Democracy Assistance” , http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.11, accessed 5-29-11]

Advocate Democracy Diplomatic tools can promote democracy by

AND

NGOs can also play an important advocacy role.

We meet it – the plan provides technical assistance with promoting a democratic transition in Yemen by engaging in direct consultation with Vice President Hadi.

3. Prefer our interpretation –

A) it is one of the only interpretations that genuinely tries to define the term in a way that covers all existing forms of DA but also tries to limit the term to preserve its meaning. This makes it the most predictable interpretation for both sides which is the only impact to limits.

B) It’s limited enough – it excludes economic assistance, sanctions, debt relief , or any other effectually topical aff.

C) Aff ground – this is the only interpretation tailored for countries with different levels of democratization. Their interpretation is ad hoc and over-limiting. 

***

D) Most predictable – USAID is the primary agency for DA

National Research Council-‘8  Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research     http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22159/12164_EXS.pdf

Within the U.S. government the

AND

the U.S. Department of State.

***

4. Their diplomacy limits arguments are absurd – The substance of the talks matters, not who says it.

5. Good is good enough – Competing interpretation leads to a race to the bottom for the most limits. If you want to vote for the most limiting interpretation vote for us because we are the only topical case.

6. We are not effects T or extra T- our advantages stem from the direct action of providing Hadi with the technical assistance necessary to push through a transition. And these are inevitable especially on this topic. There is no guarantee that demo asst will actually result in the change they talk about for any aff. There’s also no impact to this arg in the 1nc.

7. No abuse- our aff is in the literature- and is the most predictable way for the US to engage the Yemen evidence

Case

You should prefer social science contextual discussions of life within the region OVER theoretical speculation.  Your arguments flatten out liven human experiences

BARNETT 11     Clive, Pf geographies of democracy & public life @ Open U, Geoforum, 42(3), pp. 263–265.

The presumed journalistic  transparency of worldly politics to

AND

or ‘the politics of suffering and  smiling’). 

Terrorism

The plan would result in decreased drone strikes and more political solutions to Yemen’s problems. This makes out counter-terrorism operations more effective while abandoning the meme of the “Global War on Terror” that their evidence describes.

Marc Lynch June 2010 (Center for a New American Security. Rhetoric and Reality: Countering Terrorism I,n the Age of Obama. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Rhetoric%20and%20Reality_Lynch.pdf)

Yet America's success is not assured. Terrorist

AND

values and resources with the nature of the threat

We aren’t constructing anything – the majority of the people of Yemen reject Al AQAP. By getting rid of Saleh the plan empowers Yemenis to conduct their own grassroots campaign against terrorism.

Gundun 1/9/11 (James, Political Scientist and Counterinsurgency analyst, editor og The Trench and member of Octopus Mountain. Palestinian Chronicle http://yementimes.com/defaultdet.aspx?SUB_ID=36537

Last week in Taiz, one of several

AND

believe that America truly wants AQAP to stay.

Policymakers will continue to put the threat of terrorism at the top of their priorities. Your alt can’t change the mindset of policymakers, and will probably result in worse policies.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

With so many other pressing issues in the

AND

partner for the United States remains an open question

ALT

YOUR REV WILL NEVER SUCCEED – Populist democracy won’t survive – there’s too many vested interests which will block it

Marshall 11 Andrew Gavin, Research Associate with the Centre for Research on Globalization, America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’, 2/9, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23159

The best possible short-to-medium

AND

protests as controlled and totally co-opted.

Perm: do both. Don’t conflate political and economic liberalization- democracy promoters encourage local variations that autocratic governments exclude.

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

Many now chorus the view that the ‘

AND

exactly the opposite direction to their required improvement.

Perm: do the aff and the alt in all other instances. The K totalizes democracy assistance- there is no proof that we are overly liberal or rigid in promotion- we need a more nuanced understanding of democracy than their simplification.

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

There are many eloquent critiques that have added

AND

the renovations needed are more subtle in nature.

Zizek knows nothing about the lived experience of the revolutions

Kacem 11 M.B., French-Tunisian writer and philosopher. A Tunisian Renaissance. <http://www.lacan.com/thesymptom/?page_id=1046>

A Chinese woman whose family actively participated in

AND

China and post-Stalinist Russia are today.

K

And this is what the people want- we don’t taint the revolution, we help them force through change- our FP evidence from the 1AC says that the opposition is calling for foreign intervention and technical support.

And the youth want Hadi to form a transition council.

CNTV 6/14 Yemen youth urge power transfer http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20110614/103014.shtml

Young protesters, spearheading the opposition movement in

AND

Sanaa and other cities for almost four months.

Opposition leaders also what Hadi to lead the transition.

Edwards 6/13 Haley Sweetland Edwards is a journalist living in Tbilisi, Georgia. She recently lived in Yemen on a grant from the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting. “After Saleh: Is Yemen’s Opposition Willing to Settle?” The New Republic http://www.tnr.com/article/world/89844/yemen-opposition-vice-president-hadi

But the opposition isn’t united on this point

AND

divided over the question of what comes next.

Commercial interests don’t shape our epistemology.  Businesses love corrupt governments and capital doesn’t over-determine aid.

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

A fourth contention is that approaches to democracy

AND

to insert capitalism in every single country.'

The K ignores that the authoritarianism of the squo is worse. 

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

Current international political trends are complex and still

AND

has been ‘the rediscovery of the state’.

Alternative forms of democracy aren’t superior- prescribing these forms re-entrenches the K in the same methods it tries to critique.

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

It is self-evident that liberal democracy

AND

‘liberal’ tenets – and thus contradicting themselves.  

Observation 1 is the Status Quo

The opposition doesn’t believe Saleh’s will step down, but his delay tactics are fracturing the opposition and pushing the country closer to civil war. The opposition are calling for foreign intervention for democracy building.

FP 9/14 “Any way out for Yemen?” Foreign Policy http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/14/any_way_out_for_yemen

"Why do you guys in the West

AND

Yemen's tenacious democratic protest movement deserves something more.

Advantage 1 is Instability

Yemen descending into civil war in the status quo – a political solution is key.

POMED 9/22 [“Yemen ‘Descending into Civil War’”, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/yemen-descending-into-civil-war.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29]

Clashes claimed six more lives in Sana’a as

AND

Jalal bin Omar told Reuters in an interview.

Yemen poised for another bloody civil war – al Qaeda violence will increase, drawing in Saudi Arabia and Iran, threatening shipping lanes & massive instability

Ruhe 11 Jonathan Ruhe, 6/9/11 The National Interest, “The Horror of a Post-Saleh Yemen” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-horror-post-saleh-yemen-5435?page=1

The struggle for the regime’s future has shifted

AND

. The United States had best prepare itself.

Saudi oil shock would bring oil prices above $200/barrel, halt economic activity, destroy consumer spending and bankrupt companies.

Forbes 11 A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/

In many ways, a disruption of Saudi

AND

and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives.

Global oil volatility makes Asian wars inevitable

Halloran 8 Richard Halloran, former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, February 13, 2008 (South China Morning Post, “Oil scarcity paints a bleak picture for Asia,” Lexis)

A fresh assessment of Asia's energy outlook asserts

AND

be the cause of hostilities across the region.

Oil wars cause extinction

Heinberg 3 Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, 2003 (The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, p. 230)

Today the average US citizen uses five times

AND

but of humanity and most of the biosphere.

Advantage 2 is Terrorism

President Saleh is systematically enabling Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula in order maintain his importance to the US government. AQAP is naturally unpopular in Yemen but Saleh’s double-game is validating their ideology.

Gundun 11 (James, Political Scientist and Counterinsurgency analyst, editor og The Trench and member of Octopus Mountain. Palestinian Chronicle http://yementimes.com/defaultdet.aspx?SUB_ID=36537

Last week in Taiz, one of several

AND

AQAP’s growth by validating al-Qaeda’s political ideology

AQAP is planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public

Schmitt and Shanker 8/12 Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper>

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

AND

succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

AQAP is planning attacks on US – evidence is from their magazine, not just based on US speculation.

Sharp 6/8 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf

Overall, AQAP seeks to: • Attack

AND

before he could install and detonate the explosives.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

AND

and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

Plan:

The United States federal government should engage in high-level dialogue between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administrator Raj Shah and the Yemeni Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and opposition groups in order to show support for the transition away from President Saleh’s regime.

Observation 2 is Solvency

Independent of whether the plan leads to a successful transition – the plan has a lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Gude, Sofer, and Gurley 7/12 Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

Prefer lived experiences over academic theorizing – the “theory left” is rushing to judgment without facts on the ground.  Their args are arrogant forms of appropriation that flatten lived experience

Barnett 11 Clive, Pf geographies of democracy & public life @ Open U, Geoforum, 42(3), pp. 263–265.

The ‘Arab Spring’, the mobilization for

AND

best to his own vision of revolutionary possibility.   

The template of neoliberalism as a way to understand the Arab Spring does violence to lived subjects. And your arguments are too pessimistic about reform

Barnett 11 Clive, Pf geographies of democracy & public life @ Open U, Geoforum, 42(3), pp. 263–265.

Picking up Badiou’s analysis of the event,

AND

for knowing  ‘‘absolutely nothing about the situation’’.

Deferring to philosophical judgment is paternalistic. It allows philosophers to decide what’s good for society

Beetham 9   David, consultant on democracy to the Council of Europe, the Inter-Parliamentary Union and UNESCO. Ethics & Global Politics, Vol 2, No 4 (2009)

The chief alternative to these principles that has

AND

continued even when the suffrage became widely extended.

“Hands off the Arab Spring” assumes that Arabs can’t hold their own.  This representation of incapacity is the HEART or Orientalism

Sadiki 11 Dr Larbi Sadiki is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, Al Jazeera, 6/6, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html

Many Arabs are speaking out against a possible

AND

inferiority, and an incapacity to speak back.

People in the Arab Spring are not trying to overthrow neoliberalism in the same radical sense that you are- in fact many people advocate minimal changes or even neoliberal policies.

Bouarrouj 9/22 Khelil Bouarrouj is a graduate student of Middle Eastern Studies at New York University, New York. “The Arab Revolts: Neoliberalism not Primary Target” http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/arab-revolts-neoliberalism-not-primary-target

Many pundits argue that the Arab revolts are

AND

also seem to take precedence over economic ones.

ETHICS HAVE TO BE FEASIBLE

Demenchonok 9, Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, (Edward, The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68.1 (Jan): p9)

However, the further development of an ethical

AND

, or even should, be taken seriously.

In-round-politics-FIRST is selfish.  The question should be how to mobilize large groups of people and ensure the left survives. 

Grossberg, 92 [Lawrence, “Professor of Communications Studies at the University of North Carolina, We Gotta Get Out of This Place: Popular Conservatism and Postmodern Culture, 1992 p. 388-390]

If the Left can give up its demand

AND

in order to win a victory somewhere else.

Exposure is not enough.  It’s about influencing state policy.

Bojadžijev and Karakayalı 10 (Manuela, Professor at the Institute for European Ethnology at the Humboldt University of Berlin; Serhat, teaches at the University of Halle, e- flux 06/10)

Even if one rejects the traditional conception of

AND

it does not always want to admit it.

Specific demands rather than categorical rejection of the state is important on this topic in order to differentiate between the oppressive and brutal autocracies and our government.

ISAAC in 2 New School for Social Research, 2002    (Jeffrey C., Social Research, Summer, p. EXAC)

Finally, to do so ignores that politics

AND

the task of debunking official United States rhetoric.

We must talk about what the state can do to transform its institutions- the government is not going to disappear.

Burke 7 Burke, University of New South Wales, 07 (Anthony, BORDERLANDS VOLUME 6 NUMBER 2)

44. But can this balance be struck

AND

state, but it does demand its transformation.

Observation 1: Yemen’s Protests

Yemen is facing growing instability- a political solution is key to prevent the country from devolving into civil war.

VOA 10/12 “Political Stalemate Threatens Civil War for Yemen” Voice of America http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Political-Stalemate-Threatens-Civil-War-for-Yemen-131600608.html

Yemen’s popular uprising is now eight months old

AND

streets, where protests have escalated since January.

The opposition is calling for foreign intervention for democracy building.

FP 9/14 “Any way out for Yemen?” Foreign Policy http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/14/any_way_out_for_yemen

But protest leaders, who point to the

AND

Yemen's tenacious democratic protest movement deserves something more.

The US ambassador is meeting with Vice President Hadi, but talks are not about a political solution.

Yemen News 10/11 “USA believes policy is the way to end Yemeni crisis, US diplomats says” http://www.sabanews.net/en/news250642.htm

The USA and the international community believe that

AND

economic and security developments in the local arena.

Plan:

The United States Federal Government should send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administration Raj Shah to Yemen to meet with the Yemeni Vice President Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to discuss the transition planning away from President Saleh’s government and toward transparent and fair elections coupled with a competitive political process. The United States Federal Government should appoint Raj Shah as a special envoy to Yemen with the express purpose of ensuring an immediate transition of power.

Observation 2: The Most Dangerous Game

AQAP is exploiting the current regime vacuum and rebellion against the government. Greater chaos in Yemen will only increase its ability to maneuver and stage attacks.

Ruhe 6/9 Jonathan Ruhe, 6/9/11 The National Interest, “The Horror of a Post-Saleh Yemen” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-horror-post-saleh-yemen-5435?page=1

The struggle for the regime’s future has shifted

AND

. The United States had best prepare itself.

We’ll isolate three internal links:

First is President Saleh’s double game:

Saleh needs to go- his US trained counterterrorism troops are killing protestors, Saleh is funding prozy jihadists to allow AQAP to grow, and his regime is only surviving on the claim that the US needs him for counterterrorism operations.

Gundun 10/12 James is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “Yemen's field of scarecrows” Al-Ahram http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1067/re12.htm

The first objective was partially successful; given

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dictators will continue to enjoy their safe havens.

Second is hearts and minds:

Yemenis don’t care about the US’s war on terror- they care about the devastating humanitarian crisis and water shortage they are facing. Continuing to focus on counterterrorism makes us look out of touch with realities on the ground.

Sofer 6/16 Ken Sofer, Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress “In Yemen, While Americans Focus On Al Qaeda Threat, Yemenis Are Concerned About Access To Water” http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/06/16/246852/yemen-al-qaeda-access-water/

Yemen used to be an afterthought in the

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not AQAP, it’s the water, stupid.

Now is the key time to act: the death of Al-Awlaki has given Saleh new life- Protesters fear the US will continue to support Saleh for counter-terrorism cooperation.

FT 9/30 “Saleh must begin ‘transfer of power’, says US” Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aea3e4a2-eb76-11e0-a576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZTTSPhYt

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh must begin the

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during an attack on his compound in June.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

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which to launch attacks against the United States.

Current US counterterrorism policy will backfire- bad intelligence and civilian casualties help AQAP recruitment.

Gude and Sofer 6/10 Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program and Ken Sofer is a Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at American Progress. “The Last Best Chance to Save Yemen” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/yemen.html

Current U.S. policy toward Yemen

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among the local population for those we target.

Third is Middle East Spillover:

The symbolic effect of the plan spills over to the rest of the Middle East

Hamid 11 Shadi Hamid, 4/26/11 (Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center Cairo Review of Global Affairs. “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy:The Arab Spring and Middle East Unrest, Middle East, North Africa, Democracy Promotion”) <http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx>

It would be a mistake, though,

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history, bringing about their own remarkable revolutions.

The plan helps the US gain the support of moderates in the War on Terror.

Hammond 11 (Andrew, Journalist for The National Journal, “A Surge in soft power can repair the US’s image”, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/a-surge-in-soft-power-can-repair-the-uss-image) BAL

The dramatic news about Osama bin Laden's death

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of troops in Afghanistan within the next several years

This support is enough to weaken al-Qaeda’s ideology and win the war on terror.

Zarate and Gordon 11 (Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf, JOB)

Admittedly, in many quarters, the United

AND

accelerate the defeat of AQAM and its ideology.

Now the impacts:

First is chemical weapons:

AQAP is planning attacks on US homeland and bases, as stated in their online magazine.

Sharp 11 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf

Overall, AQAP seeks to: • Attack

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before he could install and detonate the explosives.

Specifically, they are planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public.

Schmitt and Shanker 8/12 Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

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succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Second is Iran War:

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public.

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

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and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

The US will respond with force against any suspected sympathizers of terrorists.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

Non-forceful measures such as these present

AND

would amount to a significant show of force.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett 8/5 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

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, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>

If only conventional bombs are used in an

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underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

Third is Nuclear Terrorism:

AQAP has the ability to launch a nuclear attack

Grossman 6/10 (Elaine M., Global Security Newswire, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php)

Attacks targeting the United States by AQAP operatives

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Bragg, Texas -- reportedly survived without injury.

Even a failed nuclear terrorism attack leads to totalitarianism and extinction.

Ahmed 4 (Mohamed, Political analyst for the Al-Ahram newspaper, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)

What would be the consequences of a nuclear

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whole planet, we will all be losers.

Al Qaeda is on the verge of massive WMD attacks – leaked documents prove they have the capability, they just need recruits.

Blake 11 [Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html]

A leading atomic regulator has privately warned that

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potential to cause "extraordinary loss of life".

Magnitude outweighs probability- the likelihood of escalation and scale of devastation means we should act to prevent a terrorist attack at all costs.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

It is all too easy, as Mueller

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cannot escape the logic of the nuclear age.

Fourth is Global Terrorism:

AQAP is key to global al -Qaeda

Bouceck 9 Christopher Boucek, September 2009 (Associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Number 102. < http://www.scribd.com/doc/19809794/Yemen-Avoiding-a-Downward-Spiral>

After several serious terrorist attacks in the early

AND

resurgence in Yemen is increasingly becoming a reality.

Independently – Al Qaeda will takeover a dozen countries and transform them into nuclear launch sites for an attack on the US. US will be forced to multiple preemptive wars

Cetron 2007 [President of Forecasting International, Marvin J. Cetron, U.S. News and World Report has identified Dr. Marvin Cetron as one of the nation's foremost futurists. Cetron spent 20 years in research and development planning and forecasting with the U.S. Navy, “Defeating Terrorism: Is It Possible? Is It Probable?” The Futurist May-June 2007, pg. 23-25]

2. Terrorists will gain Weapons of Mass

AND

. The alternatives are too grim to contemplate.

Observation 3: Broadening the Frame

The visibility of the Secretary of State and the Director of USAID working with the legitimate leader (Hadi) and not Saleh produces lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Gude, Sofer, and Gurley 7/12 Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

Observation 1: The Current Crisis

Yemen is currently facing a humanitarian crisis on a massive scale- violence and political upheaval has already displaced 60,000 Yemenis, most of the population is experiencing starvation, and disease epidemics are spreading to uncontrollable levels. Fuel, water, and food is increasingly scarce, and protestors are waiting for Saleh to step down in order to institute changes in the government.

Steil 11 Jennifer is the former editor of the Sana'a-based newspaper the Yemen Observer, World Policy Journal, Volume 28, Number 3, Fall 2011

The problem is about to get much worse

AND

to call the alarm bell," says Cappelaere.

Protesters are demanding a transition away from Saleh- he is the root of all instability, problems, and discontent for the Yemenis.

Steil 11 Jennifer is the former editor of the Sana'a-based newspaper the Yemen Observer, World Policy Journal, Volume 28, Number 3, Fall 2011

The country's slide into the abyss has its

AND

an end to the rule of President Saleh.

However, Saleh has continuously refused to initiate a transfer of power- the opposition wants Hadi to take a stand but he is too weak and doesn’t have enough political backing to force through a regime change.

Steil 11 Jennifer is the former editor of the Sana'a-based newspaper the Yemen Observer, World Policy Journal, Volume 28, Number 3, Fall 2011

Indeed, in its earliest stages, the

AND

, is the Republic of Yemen—unified.

Thus the plan: The United States federal government should engage in high-level dialogue between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administrator Raj Shah and the Yemeni Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi concerning the transition planning away from President Saleh’s regime.

Observation 2: Broadening the Frame

Saleh needs to go- his US trained counterterrorism troops are killing protestors, Saleh is funding prozy jihadists to allow AQAP to grow, and his regime is only surviving on the claim that the US needs him for counterterrorism operations.

Gundun 10/12 James is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “Yemen's field of scarecrows” Al-Ahram http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1067/re12.htm

The first objective was partially successful; given

AND

dictators will continue to enjoy their safe havens.

Yemenis don’t care about the US’s war on terror- they care about the devastating humanitarian crisis and water shortage they are facing. Continuing to focus on counterterrorism makes us look out of touch with realities on the ground.

Sofer 6/16 Ken Sofer, Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress “In Yemen, While Americans Focus On Al Qaeda Threat, Yemenis Are Concerned About Access To Water” http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/06/16/246852/yemen-al-qaeda-access-water/

Yemen used to be an afterthought in the

AND

not AQAP, it’s the water, stupid.

The visibility of the Secretary of State and the Director of USAID working with the legitimate leader (Hadi) and not Saleh produces lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Gude, Sofer, and Gurley 7/12 Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

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can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

Yemeni revolutionaries want the plan- this sends the signal that the US is listening to them.

First, the youth want Hadi to form a transition council.

CNTV 6/14 Yemen youth urge power transfer http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20110614/103014.shtml

Young protesters, spearheading the opposition movement in

AND

Sanaa and other cities for almost four months.

Second, Opposition leaders want Hadi to lead the transition.

Edwards 6/13 Haley Sweetland Edwards is a journalist living in Tbilisi, Georgia. She recently lived in Yemen on a grant from the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting. “After Saleh: Is Yemen’s Opposition Willing to Settle?” The New Republic http://www.tnr.com/article/world/89844/yemen-opposition-vice-president-hadi

But the opposition isn’t united on this point

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divided over the question of what comes next.

It is critical that the United States take a stand to help force through a transition to end the humanitarian crisis and stop funding counter-terrorism cooperations.

Steil 11 Jennifer is the former editor of the Sana'a-based newspaper the Yemen Observer, World Policy Journal, Volume 28, Number 3, Fall 2011

As protesters risk their lives and millions face

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Oxfam Great Britain, which operates in Yemen.

Observation 3: Infrastructure

Current instability prevents donors from giving needed aid in the status quo- the US needs to take the lead.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

In essence, Yemen requires external aid,

AND

Egyptian experts advising on economic management in Aden.

Donors will give as long as Yemen commits itself to reforming.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

Many observers believe that the international community is

AND

and strengthen public financial management are also crucial.

Political solution solves investment

VOA 10/12 “Political Stalemate Threatens Civil War for Yemen” Voice of America http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Political-Stalemate-Threatens-Civil-War-for-Yemen-131600608.html

Ambassador Feierstein argues that with food and fuel

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lend a hand to reduce Yemen’s endemic poverty.

Lots of infrastructure issues in Yemen- its important to care about these things.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

The loss of oil revenue is another major

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a mere 4.4% in 2010.

Water scarcity needs foreign investment to solve.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

Water scarcity is perhaps the greatest long-

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the bottom—every man for himself.” 65

Observation 4: We should Care about the Yemenis

Prefer lived experiences over academic theorizing – the “theory left” is rushing to judgment without facts on the ground.  Their args are arrogant forms of appropriation that flatten lived experience

Barnett 11 Clive, Pf geographies of democracy & public life @ Open U, Geoforum, 42(3), pp. 263–265.

The ‘Arab Spring’, the mobilization for

AND

best to his own vision of revolutionary possibility.   

“Hands off the Arab Spring” assumes that Arabs can’t hold their own.  This representation of incapacity is the HEART or Orientalism

Sadiki 11 Dr Larbi Sadiki is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, Al Jazeera, 6/6, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html

Many Arabs are speaking out against a possible

AND

inferiority, and an incapacity to speak back.

Resistance around the world can learn from the Arab Spring

Callinicos 8/14 Alex, professor of European Studies in King's College, 'London shows that democracy neoliberal style doesn’t work', Ahram Online, 14 Aug 2011, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/9/18830/World/International/Alex-Calinicous-London-shows-that-democracy-neolib.aspx

AC: The revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia

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for offering us such inspiring examples to emulate.

Their criticism over-exaggerates a uniformity that is not present on the ground, and they ignore the calls to action of real topical revolutionaries.  While some democracy assistance is geared towards US interests, the filter of critical theory assumes that all democratization is the same.

YOUNGS 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

There are many eloquent critiques that have added

AND

the renovations needed are more subtle in nature.

Learning about the topic is good because it teaches us what not to do

Grenier 8-16 Robert, a retired, 27-year veteran of the CIA's Clandestine Service, Al Jazeera, Arab democrats: Beware the US model, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181462220840979.html

Americans like to think of themselves and their

AND

is not always what most Americans would anticipate.

In-round-politics-FIRST is selfish.  The question should be how to mobilize large groups of people and ensure the left survives. 

Grossberg, 92 [Lawrence, “Professor of Communications Studies at the University of North Carolina, We Gotta Get Out of This Place: Popular Conservatism and Postmodern Culture, 1992 p. 388-390]

If the Left can give up its demand

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in order to win a victory somewhere else.

US-Saudi relations low now because of the US’s misguided policies towards the Arab spring.

Bakir 9/25 Ali Huseyin Bakir, USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies “Palestinian Statehood Deepens Saudi-U.S. Split – Analysis” Eurasia Review http://www.eurasiareview.com/25092011-palestinian-statehood-deepens-saudi-u-s-split-analysis/

Taking all this into consideration, the United

AND

backfired more often than not and spread instability.”

The US special envoy the plan creates solves back all their link arguments- it would be forced to cooperate with Saudi Arabia over their interests in Yemen- that’s the Green evidence. Saudi Arabia would have influence in the transition through the envoy- solves relations in the long-term.

Turns the DA because we are engaging Saudi Arabia rather than telling them what to do- marks a big shift in the US-Saudi relationship and creates strategic cooperation.

Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, June 21, 2011, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il

Oftentimes, American officials want to go to

AND

work toward advancing both countries’ goals and interests.

Our terrorism advantage turns the DA- our Ayson evidence indicates that a terrorist attack on the US from Yemen would make the US skeptical of a connection between Saudi Arabia and the terrorist attackers, which would tank the relationship and likely lead to a US-Saudi confrontation.

Saudi Arabia prefers a democratic Yemen to an unstable one.

VOA 9/3 “Saudis Worried About Instability in Yemen” http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Saudis-Worried-About-Instability-in-Yemen-131014973.html

Few nations are more worried about the potential

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some of the alternatives would be far worse.

They want a smooth transition.

Financial Times 3/22 “Saudis prepare to abandon Yemen” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb7e6b94-54b6-11e0-b1ed-00144feab49a.html#axzz1UnQo8lFx

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has

AND

the support of the revolt against Mr Saleh.

Saudi’s view of Yemen is security not diplomacy based.

Al-Rasheed 8/27 Madawi al-Rasheed is professor of anthropology of religion at King’s College, University of London and a political commentator on Middle East Affairs. “Iran, Turkey, and Saudi: The Regional Race for the Arab Spring” http://www.islamdaily.org/en/world-issues/middle-east/10083.article.htm

In Yemen, the Saudis struggled to push

AND

against the consolidation of national politics in Yemen.

Even if relations tank, they will still cooperate because it is in their national interests- public diplomatic statements about the relationship and media reports are irrelevant and don’t account for the strategic nature of the partnership.

Heard in 3 USAWC strategy research project, Strategic importance of Saudi Arabia – neither a friend nor foe, LTC Falkner Heard III United States Army, April 7, 2003

The success of American military to military contact with Saudi Arabia epitomizes and

reinforces the premise that the two countries are

AND

an opportunity to pursue viable courses of action.

Saudi will intervene in Yemen if things don’t get more stable- turns the DA

Dabbous 9/20 Eugene Dabbous, a professor at Notre Dame University in Beirut, Interview, “US, KSA making things worse in Yemen” http://presstv.com/detail/200154.html

A Yemeni opposition group says tanks and other

AND

not know how that is going to end.

Non-Unique – We’ve already cut ties with Saleh politically. Clinton has called for him to step down and Brennan has asked him in person. The plan wouldn’t be perceived as a departure from our current diplomatic strategy. That’s Gude et al.

And, more evidence

Deitz 7/11/11 (Jason, Staff Writer, After Saleh Visit, Obama Aide Meets Yemeni General Over ‘Power Transfer’, http://news.antiwar.com/2011/07/11/after-saleh-visit-obama-aide-meets-yemeni-general-over-power-transfer/)

Yesterday, President Obama’s top foreign policy aide

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if it is signed by Saleh or Hadi.

The damage is already done – Obama just called for the plan in front of the General Assembly

Barak Hussein Obama 9/21/11 (President of the United States, Speech to the United Nations General Assembly, CNN, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/21/president-obama-at-the-un-general-assembly/?iref=allsearch)

"In Yemen, men, women and

AND

free and fair elections as soon as possible."

No Link – all of their evidence assumes economic and military aid – the plan wouldn’t spark a debate about conditions on aid because it doesn’t spend any money.

And turn

GOP wants Clinton to act in Yemen

Pompeo Press Releases 6/22 “Pompeo, GOP Colleagues Issue Letter to Sec. of State Hillary Clinton on Yemen” http://pompeo.house.gov/press-release/pompeo-gop-colleagues-issue-letter-sec-state-hillary-clinton-yemen

Congressman Mike Pompeo (KS-04),

AND

Please let us know through classified or unclassified communiqués

And Brennan is already spinning the plan as a new counterterrorism strategy

Keith Johnson 9/8/11 (Staff Writer, the Wall Street Journal, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/09/08/brennan-to-republicans-back-off-on-military-tribunals-for-terrorism-suspects/)

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser

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group has conquered some territory in southern Yemen.

And, McCain is onboard

Hohmann 3/27 (James, reporter for Politico, "McCain unsure about handling Yemen" 3-27-2011. http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/0311/McCain_unsure_about_how_to_handle_Yemen.html ) JCP

If he were president, Sen. John

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, stressing that what happens there will reverberate.

Their link is based off funding, but we don’t spend money- USAID has extra funding in its budget for Yemen.

McInerney 11 Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, Democracy, governance, and human rights in the middle east, July

Over the past few years, Yemen has

AND

months ahead will drive the strategy moving forward.

1. Counterinterp-- Democracy assistance must be positive support for the explicit purpose of democracy

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8

[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

AND

implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

We meet it – We talk to Hadi about a transition. They can’t differentiate between tech asst and our aff, this means the basic of tech asst is advice

And Advice and moral support to politicians is a form of democracy ASSISTANCE

Carothers 9   Thomas is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 1, January

In this conception of democratization, the

AND

, or politically oriented nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

Assistance includes cooperative and diplomatic endeavors – Even high-level talks is used to support democracy

Mitchell 8, Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor, and Phillips, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director,

[Lincoln A. and David L., Columbia University Center for the Study of Human Rights visiting scholar, Jan 08, “Enhancing  Democracy Assistance” , http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.11, accessed 5-29-11]

Advocate Democracy Diplomatic tools can promote democracy by

AND

NGOs can also play an important advocacy role.

2. Prefer our interpretation –

A) Only our interp has an intent to define -- this makes it the most predictable interpretation for both sides which is the only impact to limits.

B) It’s limited enough – it excludes economic assistance, sanctions, debt relief , or any other effectually topical aff.

C) Aff ground – this is the only interpretation tailored for countries with different levels of democratization. Their interpretation is ad hoc and over-limiting. 

3. Their fungibility claims are stupid – it would limit out technical assistance aff’s because advice isn’t fungible. It also limits our election monitoring, rule of law assistant affs which are core of the topic. We’re better for ground, cause increasing money isn’t enough ground for US diplomatic stance.

4. Good is good enough – Competing interpretation leads to a race to the bottom for the most limits. If you want to vote for the most limiting interpretation vote for us because we are the only topical case.

1. No Link and Turn – our aff does not subscribe to the dominant orientalist narrative of Yemen. The people are demanding for US support

Abubakr Al-Shamahi,  September 20. 2011 (British-Yemeni freelance journalist and is the editor of Comment Middle East ,a platform for young people to write about the region. “Explaining the Silence on Yemen.” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011920203128240575.html)

Death has returned to the streets of Sanaa

AND

, if they are rejected by the world.

2. Their K creates a reverse form of Orientalism where the West is turned into a scapegoat for the problems in the Arab world and silences legitimate scholars.

Teitelbaum & Litvak, 6 /Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv University & Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies//Joshua & Meir, “STUDENTS, TEACHERS, AND EDWARD SAID: TAKING STOCK OF ORIENTALISM”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol 10 no. 10, March/

Another problem, noticed mostly by Said's Arab

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or an agent of American imperialism.[74]

3. Criticizing the relevance of the law and political freedoms from afar is easy to do when you’re already protected by the law.  Many activists in Arab countries actually want the protection of the law. Your authors don’t have a clue what’s happening on the ground.

Kacem 11 M.B., French-Tunisian writer and philosopher. A Tunisian Renaissance.<http://www.lacan.com/thesymptom/?page_id=1046>

As a Tunisian, I was already tired

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now elsewhere, claim to see Islamism everywhere.

4. Permuation – do the plan and any part of the alternative that isn’t exclusive.

And, the perm solves -- Supporting Arab participation in mimicry and solidarity is the best way to destabilize normalized knowledge and disciplinary power and its strategy for combating imperialism.

Bilgin, 8 /Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey/        

/Pinar, “Thinking past 'Western' IR?”, Third World Quarterly, Volume 29, Issue 1 February pp. 5 – 23/

For those who remain curious about the emergence

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many forms - including a search for 'similarity'.

5. Even if they win we have a poor method, it doesn’t take out our entire aff- we still solve Saudi relations and terrorism in Yemen which outweighs any impacts to a slightly tainted method.

6. Discourse doesn't construct reality

Patomaki, 2000. (Heikki, Research Director, Network Institute for Global Democratization, and Colin Wright, Lecturer in International Politics, University of Wales. International Studies Quarterly, June, Vol. 44, Issue 2, p. 213)

On the boundary of negativity, in terms

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discourse or not, are still referred to.

7. Their arguments that we coopt the movement by helping revolutionaries is a flawed mindset and assumes that revolutionaries will succumb to US aid, that they are weak, and that they don’t have the capacity to speak back- this is a worse form of orientalism because it assumes the US is the be all end all in these revolutions- they can still work even if we give them assistance- Sadiki

8. Don’t let them turn the alt into a floating PIK

A. Destroys aff offense—forces us to justify assumptions in a vacuum, kills argument resolution

B. Unpredictable - there are hundreds of different assumptions that we would have to defend in isolation

C. Moving target – no stable advocacy of their alternative allows block morphing to avoid 2AC offense –– justifies new 1AR arguments and severance perms

9. No link to imposing liberal democracy- democracy aid projects are aimed at bridge-building not replicating Western institutions.

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

A sixth point: the associated criticism that

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delinked from the longer-term reform agenda.

Perm: do both

CP clearly doesn’t solve the aff- all of our evidence is based on US changing the frame of US Yemen relations away from counterterrorism

First, empirically Saleh siphons off investment to prop up his security forces to suppress protestors and funnels it to AQAP- only the plan that gets Saleh out of power solves

Second, the CP doesn’t solve hearts and minds because it isn’t responding to protestors demands or change the frame of US counterterrorism engagement- reinvigorates anti-Americanism as a recruiting tool for AQAP

Third, the CP doesn’t send a signal- supporting democracies is key to defeating al Qaeda globally- they only help Saleh stay in power

Reject the CP text- Turkey can’t send Shah- he’s a US employee.

1) Turkey only wants reforms, not transition.

Zaman 9/20 “Turkey concerned over escalating violence in Yemen” http://www.todayszaman.com/news-257355-turkey-concerned-over-escalating-violence-in-yemen.html

A statement released by the Turkish Foreign Ministry

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by months of violence and protests since February.

Turn:

Pisses off Saudi Arabia, which kills Turkey cred.

Heydarian 9/23 Richard Javad Heydarian is a foreign affairs analyst based in Manila “Arab Spring, Turkish Harvest – Analysis” Eurasia Review http://www.eurasiareview.com/23092011-arab-spring-turkish-harvest-analysis/

Turkey’s momentous resurgence is also a function of

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coverage of protests in countries such as Bahrain.

Turkey’s model is bad and failing

Gilbo, 9/13/11 (Prof. Eytan Gilbo [an expert on US foreign policy, is Director of the School of Communication and a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, both at Bar-Ilan University] “Needed: A Leader in the White House” BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 149, September 13, 2011 http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/docs/perspectives149.pdf)

Over the last year, Turkey has become

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still perceives Erdogan as a   moderate Islamic partner.

1) Turkey already has cred- and its not for demo promo, its for bashing Israel.

Friedman 10 Thomas L. (Thomas L. Friedman won the 2002 Pulitzer Prize for commentary, his third Pulitzer for The New York Times. He became the paper's foreign-affairs Op-Ed columnist in 1995. Previously, he served as chief economic correspondent in the Washington bureau and before that he was the chief White House correspondent. Master of Philosophy degree in Modern Middle East studies from Oxford, B.A. degree in Mediterranean studies from Brandeis University ) “Letter From Istanbul” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/opinion/16friedman.html

But as Turkey started looking more South,

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actually building the foundations of a Palestinian state.

2) Non UQ-Turkish cred comes from meeting with heads of state, like Erdogan did in Egypt.

Reuters 9/12 “Turkish PM to visit Egypt, boost regional influence” http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-pm-visit-egypt-boost-regional-influence-002618328.html

Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan will meet Egypt's

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Cairo's International Center for Future and Strategic Studies.

Non UQ- Turkey isn’t doing anything in Yemen, and the US is already backing a transition.

The Inquirer 10/9 “Yemen needs action, not just talk” http://articles.philly.com/2011-10-09/news/30260352_1_president-saleh-ali-abdullah-saleh-regime-change

The recent killing in Yemen of the American

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months to transfer power to his vice president.

Turkey doesn’t care about Yemen.

The Inquirer 10/9 “Yemen needs action, not just talk” http://articles.philly.com/2011-10-09/news/30260352_1_president-saleh-ali-abdullah-saleh-regime-change

Several states share responsibility for the unconscionable neglect

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months to transfer power to his vice president.

No risk of Turkish prolif  - too many constraints

Kibaroglu, ‘8 [Mustafa, “Implications of a nuclear Iran for Turkey” Middle East Policy, 12-22-2008, http://www.articlearchives.com/asia/western-asia-saudai-arabia/2282012-1.html]

Hence, one particular condition for Turkey to

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in dealing with the problems that will arise.

Turkish prolif impossible

Walsh 10 (Brian Walsh, Senior Legal Research Fellow Heritage Foundation, 2010 http://www.ne.ncsu.edu/faculty/yim/documents/NE591-S2010/Report/Turkey_rep.pdf)

Even if the political will was in place

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as the primary nuclear threat to national security. 

Aff: Southern Cal MP

Round #5 Tournament: Shirley

vs: Weber State OS

Judge: Jim Schultz

Plan Text

On wiki

1ac Advantages

Yemeni Structural Violence

K pre-empts

2ac Offense

Affirming life good

State good

1ar Strategy

Case

State Good

2ar Strategy

Same

Round 1 aff vs Dartmouth ER

Judge: Mike Baxter-Kauf

1NC: T, Security K, EU CP, PIC out of sending the envoy, Spending, China Currency, Case

2NC: Security K, Case

1NR: T, Case

2NR: T

Round 3: aff vs. George Mason LF

Judge: Alyssa Lucas-Bolin

1NC: T Democracy Assistance, T increase is pre-existing, Canada CP, Super-committee Politics, Russia Oil, Interventionism K, Case

2NC: Interventionism K, Case

1NR: Case, Russia Oil

2NR: Case, Interventionism

Plan

The United States federal government should send Secretary of State and USAID Administrator to meet with the Yemeni Vice President and Yemeni opposition groups, including the Hiraak, to discuss a transition toward a federal state consisting of two or more regions. The United States federal government should appoint Raj Shah as a special envoy to Yemen with the express purpose of ensuring an immediate transition of power.

Observation 1: The Most Dangerous Game

We’ll isolate three internal links:

First is President Saleh’s double game:

Saleh needs to go- his US trained counterterrorism troops are killing protestors, Saleh is funding proxy jihadists to allow AQAP to grow, and his regime is only surviving on the claim that the US needs him for counterterrorism operations.

Gundun 10/12 James is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “Yemen's field of scarecrows” Al-Ahram http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1067/re12.htm

The first objective was partially successful; given

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dictators will continue to enjoy their safe havens.

Second is hearts and minds:

Yemenis don’t care about the US’s war on terror- they care about the devastating humanitarian crisis and water shortage they are facing. Continuing to focus on counterterrorism makes us look out of touch with realities on the ground.

Sofer 11 Ken Sofer, Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress “In Yemen, While Americans Focus On Al Qaeda Threat, Yemenis Are Concerned About Access To Water” http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/06/16/246852/yemen-al-qaeda-access-water/

Yemen used to be an afterthought in the

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not AQAP, it’s the water, stupid.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

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which to launch attacks against the United States.

Current US counterterrorism policy will backfire- bad intelligence and civilian casualties help AQAP recruitment.

Gude and Sofer 11 Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program and Ken Sofer is a Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at American Progress. “The Last Best Chance to Save Yemen” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/yemen.html

Current U.S. policy toward Yemen

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among the local population for those we target.

Anti-Americanism on the rise because the US is seen as continuing to support Saleh. Continued US silence will push Southerners to Iran. Southern support key to diminish AQAP control in these territories.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

The U.S. increasingly is cast

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to them and must be determined through dialogue.

Specifically, they are planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public.

Schmitt and Shanker 11 Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

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succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public.

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

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and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett 11 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” August 5, Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

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, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>

If only conventional bombs are used in an

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underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

Terrorism causes full scale nuclear conflict- preemption and miscalculation, US retaliation draws in Russia and China to full-scale nuclear war.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Nuclear terrorism is the most likely scenario for nuclear weapons use.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

Some observers may agree with the proposition that

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shown great interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.” 23

Observation 2: The South

Yemen in on the brink of civil war- protests have brought up old grievances of past civil conflicts- now is the key time to prioritize the Southern question and begin a political transition.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

Ten months of popular protest spiked by periodic

AND

peaceful compromise on the Southern issue as well.

Civil war is inevitable without a resolution of the Southern issue.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

The problem is that there is no indication

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and more ominous chapter could yet be written.

Only a peaceful transition away from Saleh toward a representative government solves fragmentation

Zimmerman 11 Katherine Zimmerman is an Analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. Her work at AEI has focused on al Qaeda and its associated movements in the Gulf of Aden. Katherine specializes in the Yemen-based group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Somalia’s al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab. She has conducted briefings for congressional staffers and published analyses of U.S. national security interests in Yemen and Somalia. Katherine graduated with distinction from Yale University with a B.A. in Political Science and Modern Middle East Studies. AEI Critical Threats “Yemen Strategic Exercise Estimates for Scenario 3: State fragmentation with or without Saleh nominally in charge in Sana’a.” April 27 http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/pdf_upload/analysis/Yemen_Strategic_Exercise_2011_Estimates_for_Scenario_3.pdf

It is unlikely that Yemeni factions would seek

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-representative new government rejected by certain regions.

A federal state is a compromise for those with different perspectives on the Southern issue. Overall, it is critical that the Southern issue be prioritized in order to solve Yemen’s underlying crises.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

To the surprise of its organisers, approximately

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and even Southern government employees living in Sanaa.

Civil war draws in Saudi Arabia and Iran, threatening shipping lanes & massive instability

Jonathan Ruhe, 6/9/11 The National Interest, “The Horror of a Post-Saleh Yemen” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-horror-post-saleh-yemen-5435?page=1

The struggle for the regime’s future has shifted

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. The United States had best prepare itself.

This sends oil prices soaring

Steve LeVine 3/21/11  Foreign Policy, Back to Saudi’s Fault Lines <http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/back_to_saudis_fault_lines

The oil balance is back on precarious footing

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oil reserves and production underpin global price stability.

That kills the global economy

Rick Newman, 2/18/11 US News and World Report. “How Arab Unrest Could Harm the World Economy.” <http://www.usnews.com/mobile/blogs/flowchart/2011/2/18/how-arab-unrest-could-harm-the-world-economy.html

Oil, however, is a different story

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, it could be a game-changer.

Global nuclear wars

Harris and Burrows 09 PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) & member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit Mathew, and Jennifer “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf

Of course, the report encompasses more than

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a more dog-eat-dog world.

Observation 3: Broadening the Frame

The visibility of the Secretary of State and the Director of USAID working with the legitimate leader (Hadi) and not Saleh produces lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Gude, Sofer, and Gurley 11 Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

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can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

US key- successful model of federalism, also solves US democratic cred in the region.

Mihalakas 11 Nasos Mihalakas, Assistant Professor of International Trade Law, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring” Foreign Policy Association, June 7 http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/

When federalism at the national level is applied

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world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

Plan solves political factions to assure speedy transition through regional partners, strengthens the oppositions ability to beat AQAP and mitigates the underlying grievances AQAP exploits in Yemen.

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Yemen, Al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency and stability operations, ‘Yemen’s Saleh Strikes Back’, 9/29)

Washington can take a variety of immediate steps

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of partnering with international representatives in joint consulates.

Changing the frame away from counterterrorism is key to prevent the crises that allow AQAP to take advantage of the power vacuum in the country.

Gude and Sofer 11 Ken Gude is the Managing Director for National Security and Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant at the Center for American Progress. “Whack-a-Mole in Yemen”, 9/23, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/09/whack_a_mole.html

The crisis has also opened up a space

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militant groups as Yemen slides further into disintegration.

AT: Threat Exaggerated

AQAP has intent and capability to launch an attack on the US.

Stewart 09/01 (Scott, ‘Why Al Qaeda is Unlikely to Execute Another 9/11’, Stratfor tactical analyst, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110831-why-al-qaeda-unlikely-execute-another-911?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20110901&utm_term=sweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=b40ae0e8f9fe46bda275e53169d4b410)

As we noted in our annual jihadist forecast

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survives, its adherents will pose a threat.

AT: Econ means no solvo

Decentralization solves economy.

Mihalakas 11 Nasos Mihalakas, Assistant Professor of International Trade Law, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring” Foreign Policy Association, June 7 http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/

In the context of developing countries, decentralization

AND

and growing the national economy in the process.

No agreement right now – uncertainty about the 2012 election makes it too difficult to reach a deal – they’ll delay until after the election.

LA Times 11/11 [“Deficit ‘super committee’ may put off decisions”, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-super-committee-20111112,0,7559786.story]

With time and compromise slipping out of reach

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in a better position to come to terms.

Won’t agree – disagreements over tax increases and defense cuts

Guam Buildup News 10/28/11 [“Partisan Rift in Deficit Super Committee Dampens a Week of Positive Diplomacy for Asia-Pacific Realignment and Guam Military Buildup”, http://guambuildupnews.com/Buildup-News-Politics/Partisan-Rift-in-Deficit-Super-Committee-Dampens-a-Week-of-Positive-Diplomacy-for-Asia-Pacific-Realignment-and-Guam-Military-Buildup.html]

Congress's deficit super committee produced two competing plans

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$1.3 billion in new taxes.

We don’t spend money- USAID has extra funding in its budget for Yemen.

McInerney 11 Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, Democracy, governance, and human rights in the middle east, July

Over the past few years, Yemen has

AND

months ahead will drive the strategy moving forward.

Will pass – new Republican support

WSJ 11/10/11(Brooks Challenges House Speaker On China Currency Policy

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111110-717735.html

November 10, 2011)

Rep. Mo Brooks (R., Ala

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advantage over American private sector industry and manufacturers."

It’s delayed.

Palmer and Eckert Oct 14 (Doug and Paul, Reuters, U.S. delays China currency report; lawmakers push bill, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/us-usa-china-idUSTRE79D6A720111014?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews)

 (Reuters) - The Treasury Department

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to let its yuan rise in value faster.

GOP wants Clinton to act in Yemen

Pompeo Press Releases 6/22 “Pompeo, GOP Colleagues Issue Letter to Sec. of State Hillary Clinton on Yemen” http://pompeo.house.gov/press-release/pompeo-gop-colleagues-issue-letter-sec-state-hillary-clinton-yemen

Congressman Mike Pompeo (KS-04),

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Please let us know through classified or unclassified communiqués

No link—Obama’s not in Washington and won’t use PC on anything

Politico 11/11/11 (“Obama spurns Congress for overseas”, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68168.html)

President Barack Obama left on a nine-

AND

and-a-half years in office.

Policymakers will continue to put the threat of terrorism at the top of their priorities. Your K can’t change the mindset of policymakers.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

With so many other pressing issues in the

AND

for the United States remains an open question. 

We control uniqueness – Instability in Yemen is too great a risk to be ignored – Absent the plan the US would invade to keep order. They are already making preparations

Gulevich 11 Vladislav 3/8/11 Geopolitical Dimension of the Rebellion in Yemen. Oriental Review.Org < http://orientalreview.org/2011/03/08/geopolitical-dimension-of-the-rebellion-in-yemen/>

The Shia insurgency can trigger unrest in the

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more distant political future hardly stands a chance.

The K prioritizes theory over real implications of policy. The impact is bad policymaking and debate because we don’t engage real world experiences.

Nye in 9 Joseph Nye,  professor at Harvard University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. , BA suma cum laude Princeton, PhD Harvard, Former Chair National Intelligence Council, Former Asst. Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, you know who he is, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-09

President Obama has appointed some distinguished academic economists

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seem to be headed in the opposite direction.

Discourse doesn't construct reality

Patomaki, 2000. (Heikki, Research Director, Network Institute for Global Democratization, and Colin Wright, Lecturer in International Politics, University of Wales. International Studies Quarterly, June, Vol. 44, Issue 2, p. 213)

On the boundary of negativity, in terms

AND

discourse or not, are still referred to.

Key to engage Saudi Arabia creates strategic cooperation.

Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, June 21, 2011, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il

Oftentimes, American officials want to go to

AND

work toward advancing both countries’ goals and interests.

the US and China will clash over access to Saudi oil – causes escalatory US-China war.

Alterman and Garver 2008

Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the CSIS Middle East Program, and John W. Garver, professor of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East Chapter One – Introduction, October 15, 2008, http://www.susris.com/articles/2008/ioi/081015-triangle-intro.html

In the global hunt for oil, the

AND

are serious enough that they bear prolonged examination.

EU Can’t Solve the aff

A) Only the plan can create enough momentum for Hadi to take control of the transition- that’s Gude, Sofer, and Gurley evidence- even if Yemen receives aid from the EU, there isn’t a leader strong enough to overthrow Saleh.

B) Doesn’t solve the aff- terrorists are motivated by anti-American sentiments – it’s not just about instilling political stability but appeasing Yemenis via legitimate U.S. involvement – CP risks massive internal chaos, skyrocketing oil prices, and economic collapse 

Can’t solve Federalism- EU federalism being hotly debated due to euro zone crisis.

NYT 11/9 “Support for Euro Risks Splitting European Union” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/world/europe/support-for-euro-risks-splitting-eu.html

The E.U. used to be

AND

are obliged to join the single currency eventually.

1) We meet:

2) Counter-interpretation: Democracy assistance must be positive support for the explicit purpose of democracy

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8

[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

AND

implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

Democracy assistance can be financial OR technical assistance including knowledge and advice

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies, Carnegie endowment for international peace, 9-12-2011, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-again-same-email-template-as.html

There really is not a formal definition that

AND

intentionally assistance for the sake of building democracy.

3) Prefer our interp

A) intent to define -- this makes it the most predictable interpretation for both sides which is the only impact to limits.

B) It’s limited enough – it excludes economic assistance, sanctions, debt relief , or any other effectually topical aff.

C) Aff ground – this is the only interpretation tailored for countries with different levels of democratization

4) Their interpretation is arbitrary and over-limiting

A) limits out technical assistance aff’s like advice, election monitoring, rule of law assistant affs which are core of the topic.

B) Dialogue is a pre-requisite to all forms of democracy assistance- and it's the only thing we can do in Yemen because Saleh won’t reform and there’s no other way to get assistance on the ground- Yemen affs are key to discussing transition and federalism

C) Err aff on topicality- few solvency advocates and lots of neg generics means its too difficult to find a good aff on the topic- breadth of affs with good clash is better for debate

5) Good is good enough – Competing interpretation leads to a race to the bottom for the most limits. If you want to vote for the most limiting interpretation vote for us because we are the only topical case.

AT: Alt Causes

Governance issues at the heart of all problems in Yemen.

Sharp 3/22 Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

Although governance issues are far less tangible than

AND

whose support is critical in combating Al Qaeda.  

Instability won’t have a lasting impact and Yemen is too insignificant.

NYT 10/11 “In the Middle East, the Crisis That Wasn't” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/business/energy-environment/in-the-middle-east-the-crisis-that-wasnt.html

When revolts broke out from Tunisia to Bahrain

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they will tap them to rebuild their country.

People moving away from Middle East oil.

NYT 10/11 “In the Middle East, the Crisis That Wasn't” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/business/energy-environment/in-the-middle-east-the-crisis-that-wasnt.html

Over the longer term, there is a

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, referring to President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela.

The Russian economy is failing –oil doesn’t boost the economy any more 

Kelly 11 (Lidia Kelly, Reuters, “Russia's economy struggles for sustainable growth”, 5-18-11 http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/russias-economy-struggles-for-sustainable-growth/691643.html, )

Russia's economy is struggling to attain sustainable growth

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matter of time before consumer spending picks up."

Don’t conflate political and economic liberalization- democracy promoters encourage local variations that autocratic governments exclude.

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

Many now chorus the view that the ‘

AND

exactly the opposite direction to their required improvement. Imperfect knowledge doesn’t disprove our aff.  We shouldn’t loose sight of the good in search of the perfect

Alford 2K William P. Professor and Director, East Asian Legal Studies, Harvard Law School. Harvard Law Review, May, 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677

To make this point is not to lose

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purposes, to the possibility of unintended consequences.

The K totalizes democracy assistance- there is no proof that we are overly liberal or rigid in promotion- we need a more nuanced understanding of democracy than their simplification.

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

There are many eloquent critiques that have added

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the renovations needed are more subtle in nature. 

The K ignores that the authoritarianism of the squo is worse. 

Youngs 11 Richard, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the U of Warwick, FRIDE, Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion, Jan, N º 1 0 6

Current international political trends are complex and still

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has been ‘the rediscovery of the state’.