//


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//

Contention 1: Mixed Signals

The death of Al-Awaki has given

AND

to support Saleh for Counter-terrorism cooperation.

FT 9/30 “Saleh must begin ‘transfer of power’, says US” Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aea3e4a2-eb76-11e0-a576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZTTSPhYt

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh must begin the

AND

during an attack on his compound in June.

The people of Yemen still view US assistance through a counterterrorism frame

Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

to be all about drone strikes on terrorists.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administration Raj Shah to Yemen in order to advise the Yemeni Vice President Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi concerning the transition planning away from President Saleh’s regime and toward transparent and fair elections coupled with a competitive political process. The United States Federal Government should appoint Raj Shah as a special envoy to Yemen with the express purpose of ensuring an immediate transition of power.

Contention 2: The Most Dangerous Game

Saleh is playing a double-game in Yemen – he is systematically enabling Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula while simultaneously using their growing strength as leverage for US support

James Gundun 9/21/11 (Political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “The Plot Thickens in Yemen.” The Palestinian Chronicle. http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17122)

After enabling AQAP’s takeover of Abyan governorate -

AND

Saleh’s unstable rule over a potentially free Yemen.

Saleh’s unwillingness to control territory in the south makes Yemen a safe-haven for AQAP

Christopher Boucek, September 2009 (Associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Number 102. < http://www.scribd.com/doc/19809794/Yemen-Avoiding-a-Downward-Spiral>

After several serious terrorist attacks in the early

AND

resurgence in Yemen is increasingly becoming a reality.

AQAP is planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public

Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

AND

mall, an airport or a subway station.

President Obama and his top national security aides

AND

month, referring to Al Qaeda’s Yemeni branch.

“A.Q.A.P

AND

succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Successful AQAP attack leads to US retaliation and invasion

Andrew Terrill, January 2011 (Phd. Fellow for the Strategic Studies Institute. Retired U.S. Army Reserve Liutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer. The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security. <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=1040>

The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should

AND

radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public

Byman 2007 [Director of the Center for

AND

3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

AND

and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett, 8/5/11 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs.

“Iran and al-Qaeda: Can

AND

-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

AND

afar in planning" the May 2003 attacks.

Not even the George W. Bush Administration

AND

-Qa'ida in the ways that are alleged.

Of the six al-Qa'ida operatives sanctioned

AND

and politically significant action by the Treasury Department.

This is all strongly reminiscent of the way

AND

, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch in 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>

If only conventional bombs are used in an

AND

underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at

AND

-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

AND

which to launch attacks against the United States.

Cooperating with Yemenis is crucial to intelligence gathering about AQAP

Peter Knoetgen 5/16, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”

While efforts to combat the long-term

AND

hand over all their information without reciprocal assistance.

The importance of intelligence agencies goes beyond occasionally

AND

US policy and identify its proper main efforts.

Contention 3: Saudi Arabia

US-Saudi relations low now because of the US’s misguided policies towards the Arab spring.

Bakir 9/25 Ali Huseyin Bakir, USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies “Palestinian Statehood Deepens Saudi-U.S. Split – Analysis” Eurasia Review http://www.eurasiareview.com/25092011-palestinian-statehood-deepens-saudi-u-s-split-analysis/

Taking all this into consideration, the United

AND

backfired more often than not and spread instability.”

Saudi Arabia just wants a smooth transition

Financial Times 3/22 “Saudis prepare to abandon Yemen” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb7e6b94-54b6-11e0-b1ed-00144feab49a.html#axzz1UnQo8lFx

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh

AND

Yemen is shifting to the support of the revolt against Mr Saleh.

The Saudis are divided – but they all want a stable Yemen

Reuters 9/21/11(Angus McDowall, staff writer, “Analysis: Saudi Arabia hesitant in pressing Saleh to quit” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/us-yemen-saudi-idUSTRE78K3UG20110921)

Analysts say the ruling al-Saud family

AND

the kingdom's efforts to root out al Qaeda.

The Saudi prioritize stability over everything else – they’ll get on board

Reuters 11 (6/18, Analysis: Yemen crisis puts Saudi in powerbroker's bind, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/18/us-saudi-yemen-idUSTRE75H16T20110618)

Saudi Arabia has emerged as the decisive player

AND

-Qaeda terror activities sooner rather than later.”

The plan is an act of cooperation that spills over to the rest of the relationship

Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, June 21, 2011, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring”

Oftentimes, American officials want to go to

AND

work toward advancing both countries’ goals and interests.

The US and China will clash over access to Saudi oil – causes escalatory US-China war.

Alterman and Garver 2008

Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the CSIS Middle East Program, and John W. Garver, professor of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, member of the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security, and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East Chapter One – Introduction, October 15, 2008,

In the global hunt for oil, the United States had a huge head start. The U.S. government has been AND

 of such conflict are serious enough that they bear prolonged examination.

Contention 4: Changing the frame

Independent of whether the plan leads to a successful transition – the plan has a lasting symbolic effect that broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

Plan solves political factions to assure speedy transition through regional partners, strengthens the oppositions ability to beat AQAp and mitigates the underlying grievances AQAP exploits in Yemen. (tag better)

Green 9/29 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Yemen, Al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency and stability operations, ‘Yemen’s Saleh Strikes Back’)

Washington can take a variety of immediate steps

AND

the country halt its slide toward increasing instability:

Establish a special envoy. To demonstrate its

AND

of partnering with international representatives in joint consulates.

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//

T

1. Counterinterp-- Democracy assistance must be positive support for the explicit purpose of democracy

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8

[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol.

AND

, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

AND

Table 1 visualizes the different democracy promotion instruments.

Table 1. Democracy promotion instruments

Explicit instruments                                                            Implicit instruments

Positive instruments                      Democracy assistance (active instrument),                    Classical development

                                                          positive political conditionality                                         aid

(passive instrument)

Negative instruments                    Negative political conditionality, naming                       Military action

and shaming, military action

Democracy assistance is the type of foreign policy

AND

implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

And Advice and moral support to politicians is a form of democracy ASSISTANCE

Carothers 9   Thomas is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 1, January

  In this conception of democratization, the

AND

, or politically oriented nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

Case

Cooperating with Yemenis is crucial to intelligence gathering about AQAPPeter Knoetgen 5/16, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”

While efforts to combat the long-term

AND

hand over all their information without reciprocal assistance.

The importance of intelligence agencies goes beyond occasionally

AND

US policy and identify its proper main efforts.

Prefer Schmitt, Ricin success is also psychological

AND

same reason for attacking Iran-econ won’t matter

FDI UAE

SSR training with Libya

Entous 8/23

Adam Entous, August 23, 2011, U.S. Offers Assistance, to a Point, Wall Street Journal,

While the U.S. doesn't envision participating in a peacekeeping force, U.S. military commanders would like to establish a security-assistance presence in a new Libya. This could include military-liaison officers, as well as American trainers who would work with Libyan security forces, officials said.

c. Military assistance and training to Bahrain

Hiltermann 9/8

Joost R. Hiltermann, Obama's Bahrain backpedalling, CNN,

Washington retains real leverage over the regime. Bahrain is firmly under the U.S. security umbrella in the Gulf, and the United States provides Bahrain with funding for military purchases ($19 million in 2010) as well as military training assistance. The United States should be more assertive about using this influence: The current policy of continuing military-to-military relations without regard for the political and human rights situation is counterproductive, could be interpreted as violating U.S. law, and exposes the Obama administration to accusations of double standards in its approach to the Arab Spring.

And we’ve provided 65 million in democracy assistance to Egypt post-revolution

Abdel-Baky 2011

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, Reiterating the differences, Al-Ahram,

The US has already approved $65 million for democracy assistance in Egypt after the country's January Revolution. According to one official in Washington, 80 per cent of this money has been awarded to US contractors to set up capacity- building programmes to assist Egyptian political parties and civil society before the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

Selective Engagement

USAID has extra funding in its budget for Yemen- plan wouldn’t spend any money.

McInerney 11 Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, Democracy, governance, and human rights in the middle east, July

Over the past few years, Yemen has

AND

months ahead will drive the strategy moving forward.

SKFTA

Dems will send it back to the house without the FAA

AFP 09/16 (‘US Senate eyes progress on stalled trade deals’)

"I do not like the Colombia Free

AND

wait for House passage of the GSP legislation.

Republicans hate the TAA.

ABC News 9/8 “Commerce Confident Trade Agreements Will Pass” http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/commerce-confident-trade-agreements-will-pass/

As the battle of the job plans reaches

AND

but will almost surely vote against the TAA.

And, more evidence

Deitz 7/11/11 (Jason, Staff Writer, After Saleh Visit, Obama Aide Meets Yemeni General Over ‘Power Transfer’, http://news.antiwar.com/2011/07/11/after-saleh-visit-obama-aide-meets-yemeni-general-over-power-transfer/)

Yesterday, President Obama’s top foreign policy aide

AND

if it is signed by Saleh or Hadi.

The damage is already done – Obama just called for the plan in front of the General Assembly

Barak Hussein Obama 9/21/11 (President of the muthafuck’n United States of Amerikuh, Speech to the United Nations General Assembly, CNN, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/21/president-obama-at-the-un-general-assembly/?iref=allsearch)

"In Yemen, men, women and

AND

free and fair elections as soon as possible."

GOP wants Clinton to act in Yemen

Pompeo Press Releases 6/22 “Pompeo, GOP Colleagues Issue Letter to Sec. of State Hillary Clinton on Yemen”

Congressman Mike Pompeo (KS-04),

AND

Please let us know through classified or unclassified communiqués

And Brennan is already spinning the plan as a new counterterrorism strategy

Keith Johnson 9/8/11 (Staff Writer, the Wall Street Journal, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/09/08/brennan-to-republicans-back-off-on-military-tribunals-for-terrorism-suspects/)

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser

AND

group has conquered some territory in southern Yemen.

1.      You’re kidding yourself if you think one trade deal will kill all realtions

Harvard Gazzette 09 (9-14,” Firm allies, past and present”, )

Neither of the ambassadors budged much. In

AND

not only destabilize an alliance but a region.

Zero Impact to the Alliance – no strategic interest, zero impact to troop withdrawal

Doug Bandow, 2008, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, June 21, 2008, (Antiwar.com, Strengthening the US-South Korea Alliance: For What?, )

Some South Koreans are angry that the Lee government appeared to cave, imposing fewer restrictions AND

 providing a defense guarantee to a prosperous and populous state well able to defend itself.

EU CP

The EU has tried this before in ’06, current protests prove it didn’t work out.

Hill, ’10 [Ginny, Arab Reform Bulletin, “Democracy on Hold in Yemen.”]

Yemen recently celebrated the twentieth anniversary of unification between the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the

AND

remain elusive.

EU has no political influence in Yemen – EU Econ assistance can only solve after stability

Luijken 11 (Thomas, ‘Internal Divisions and Regional Dimensions of the Crisis in Yemen’, July 19, The Polish Institute of International Affairs’)

The EU has only limited influence over the

AND

. in channelling economic assistance to the country.

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//

Contention 1: Mixed Signals

The death of Al-Awlaki has given

AND

to support Saleh for Counter-terrorism cooperation.

FT 9/30 “Saleh must begin ‘transfer of power’, says US” Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aea3e4a2-eb76-11e0-a576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZTTSPhYt

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh must begin the

AND

during an attack on his compound in June.

The people of Yemen still view US assistance through a counterterrorism frame.

Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

to be all about drone strikes on terrorists.

The United States Federal Government should send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administrator Raj Shah to Yemen in order to advise the Yemeni Vice President Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi concerning the transition planning away from President Saleh’s regime and toward transparent and fair elections coupled with a competitive political process. The United States Federal Government should appoint Raj Shah as a special envoy to Yemen with the express purpose of ensuring an immediate transition of power.

Contention 2: AQAP In Yemen

Saleh is playing a double-game in Yemen – he is systematically enabling Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula while simultaneously using their growing strength as leverage for US support

James Gundun 9/21/11 (Political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst. “The Plot Thickens in Yemen.” The Palestinian Chronicle. http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17122)

After enabling AQAP’s takeover of Abyan governorate -

AND

Saleh’s unstable rule over a potentially free Yemen.

Saleh’s unwillingness to control territory in the south makes Yemen a safe-haven for AQAP

Christopher Boucek, September 2009 (Associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. Number 102. < http://www.scribd.com/doc/19809794/Yemen-Avoiding-a-Downward-Spiral>

After several serious terrorist attacks in the early

AND

resurgence in Yemen is increasingly becoming a reality.

AQAP is the biggest threat – they have the capabilities to launch sophisticated attacks

Cilluffo & Watts 6/24 (Frank J., Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and  Clinton Watts, Principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” )

AQAP is the only al Qaeda affiliate to

AND

and a sustained penchant for attacking American targets.

For the U.S., AQAP’s Foreign

AND

an immediate threat to the U.S.

First is Nuclear Terrorism:

AQAP has the ability to launch a nuclear attack-at least dirty bomb

Grossman 6/10 (Elaine M., Global Security Newswire, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” )

Attacks targeting the United States by AQAP operatives

AND

Bragg, Texas -- reportedly survived without injury.

Even a failed nuclear terrorism attack will cause extinction

Ahmed 4 (Mohamed, Political analyst for

AND

/2004/705/op5.htm)

What would be the consequences of a nuclear

AND

whole planet, we will all be losers.

Second is Chemical Attack:

AQAP is planning a chemical weapon attack on US soil – this will cause disproportionate psychological terror in the public

Eric Schmitt and Thom Shanker 8/12/11. Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear. The New York Times

American counterterrorism officials are increasingly concerned that the

AND

mall, an airport or a subway station.

President Obama and his top national security aides

AND

month, referring to Al Qaeda’s Yemeni branch.

“A.Q.A.P

AND

succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Successful AQAP attack leads to US retaliation and invasion

Andrew Terrill, January 2011 (Phd. Fellow for the Strategic Studies Institute. Retired U.S. Army Reserve Liutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer. The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security. <http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q=1040>

The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should

AND

radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public

Byman 2007 [Director of the Center for

AND

3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

AND

and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

The US will respond with force by retaliating against the terrorist group and any nations believed to be harboring terrorists- Iran would be especially vulnerable because the US already view it as hostile to the West.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

Non-forceful measures such as these present

AND

would amount to a significant show of force.

Obama is convinced Iran is helping AQAP – sets the stage for US-Iran War

Leverett and Leverett 8/5 (Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is a senior research fellow. He also teaches at Pennsylvania State University's School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann is also a senior lecturer and senior research fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. “Iran and al-Qaeda: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?” Afro-Middle East Center. < http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/iran/243-iran-and-al-qaeda-can-the-charges-be-substantiated>

Today, much of the American media unquestioningly

AND

, and in too many other journalistic venues.

US-Iran war means massive proliferation and global nuclear war.

Hirsch in 6 <Jorge Hirsch a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006,America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html>

If only conventional bombs are used in an

AND

underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

Contention 3: Global Terrorism

AQAP is rapidly becoming a transnational threat – they have become the most potent branch of Al Qaeda

Miller and Finn ‘10 [Miller and Peter Finn, Washington Post Staff Writers,  “CIA sees increased threat from al-Qaeda in Yemen”, Tuesday, August 24, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/24/AR2010082406553_pf.html

For the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, CIA analysts see one of al-Qaeda's offshoots - rather than the core group now based in Pakistan - as the most urgent threat to U.S. security, officials said. The sober new assessment of al-Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen has helped prompt senior Obama administration officials to call for an escalation of U.S. operations there - including a proposal to add armed CIA drones to a clandestine campaign of U.S. military strikes, the officials said. "We are looking to draw on all of the capabilities at our disposal," said a senior Obama administration official, who described plans for "a ramp-up over a period of months." The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, stressed that that analysts continue to see al-Qaeda and its allies in the tribal areas of Pakistan as supremely dangerous adversaries. The officials insisted there would be no letup in their pursuit of Osama bin Laden and other senior figures thought to be hiding in Pakistan. Indeed, officials said it was largely because al-Qaeda has been decimated by Predator strikes in Pakistan that the franchise in Yemen has emerged as a more potent threat. A CIA strike killed a group of al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen in 2002, but officials said the agency has not had that capability on the peninsula for several years. "We see al-Qaeda as having suffered major losses, unable to replenish ranks and recover at a pace that would keep them on offense," said a senior U.S. official familiar with the CIA's assessments. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, as its Yemen-based group is called, is "on the upswing," the official said. "The relative concern ratios are changing. We're more concerned now about AQAP than we were before." Al-Qaeda in Yemen is seen as more agile and aggressive, officials said. It took the group just a few months to set in motion a plot that succeeded in getting an alleged suicide bomber aboard a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day. More important, officials cited the role of Anwar al-Aulaqi, an American-born cleric whose command of English and militant ambition have helped transform the Yemen organization into a transnational threat. Philip Mudd, a former senior official at the CIA and the FBI, argues in a forthcoming article that the threat of a Sept. 11-style attack has been supplanted by a proliferation of plots by AQAP and other affiliates. "The sheer numbers . . . suggest that one of the plots in the United States will succeed," he writes in the latest issue of CTC Sentinel, a publication of the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, N.Y. In the future, he said, "the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region will not be the sole, or even primary, source of bombing suspects." U.S. officials said the administration's plans to escalate operations in Yemen reflect two aims: improving U.S. intelligence in Yemen and adding new options for carrying out strikes when a target is found.

AQAP is key to sustain and grow Al-Qaeda both regionally and globally -

Cilluffo & Watts 6/24 (Frank J., Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and  Clinton Watts, Principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” )

AQAP appears well positioned to sustain and grow

AND

of their goals with those of Al Qaeda’s.

Al Qaeda is on the verge of massive WMD attacks – leaked documents prove they have the capability

Blake et al. 11 [Heidi Blake et al. is an investigative reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards Daily Telegraph, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html]

A leading atomic regulator has privately warned that

AND

potential to cause "extraordinary loss of life".

Public pressure would force nuclear retaliation on both the perpetrators and any state thought to have been sympathetic towards the terrorist group- even if they have nuclear weapons.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

The most important and challenging question regarding the

AND

such disarmament by force is a rare commodity).

This leads to full scale nuclear conflict- preemption and miscalculation, US retaliation draws in Russia and China.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear . . . draw about their culpability?

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

AND

might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Contention 4: Changing the frame

Independent of whether the plan leads to a

AND

broadens the frame of US-Yemen relations.

Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, and Aaron Gurley 7/12/11 (Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress. Center for American Progress <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/secretary_clinton_yemen.html>

The United States has little capacity to force

AND

can tackle the multiple serious challenges it faces.

Plan solves political factions to assure speedy transition through regional partners, strengthens the oppositions ability to beat AQAP.

Green 9/29 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Yemen, Al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency and stability operations, ‘Yemen’s Saleh Strikes Back’)

Washington can take a variety of immediate steps

AND

the country halt its slide toward increasing instability:

Establish a special envoy. To demonstrate its

AND

of partnering with international representatives in joint consulates.

US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at

AND

-american-moment-in-yemen/.)

If the United States adopts a new approach

AND

which to launch attacks against the United States.

,Cooperating with Yemenis is crucial to intelligence gathering about AQAPPeter Knoetgen 5/16, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”

While efforts to combat the long-term

AND

Preserving that cooperation requires a two-way exchange

The importance of intelligence agencies goes beyond occasionally

AND

US policy and identify its proper main efforts.

The symbolic effect of the plan spills over to the rest of the Middle East

Hamid 11 Shadi Hamid, 4/26/11 (Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center Cairo Review of Global Affairs. “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy:The Arab Spring and Middle East Unrest, Middle East, North Africa, Democracy Promotion”) <http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx>

It would be a mistake, though,

AND

history, bringing about their own remarkable revolutions.

The plan helps the US gain the support of moderates in the War on Terror.

Hammond 11 (Andrew, Journalist for The National Journal, “A Surge in soft power can repair the US’s image”, ) BAL

The dramatic news about Osama bin Laden's death

AND

of troops in Afghanistan within the next several years

This support is enough to weaken al-Qaeda’s ideology and win the war on terror.

Zarate and Gordon 11 (Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf, JOB)

Admittedly, in many quarters, the United

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accelerate the defeat of AQAM and its ideology.

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1. Counterinterp-- Democracy assistance must be positive support for the explicit purpose of democracy

Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8

[Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol.

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, accessed 6-3-11]

What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy

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Table 1 visualizes the different democracy promotion instruments.

Table 1. Democracy promotion instruments

Explicit instruments                                                            Implicit instruments

Positive instruments                      Democracy assistance (active instrument),                    Classical development

                                                          positive political conditionality                                         aid

(passive instrument)

Negative instruments                    Negative political conditionality, naming                       Military action

and shaming, military action

Democracy assistance is the type of foreign policy

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implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

We meet it – We advice Hadi abt a transition. They can’t differentiate between tech asst and our aff, this means the basic of tech asst is advice.

And Advice and moral support to politicians is a form of democracy ASSISTANCE

Carothers 9   Thomas is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 1, January

  In this conception of democratization, the

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, or politically oriented nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

2. Prefer our interpretation –

A) Only our interp has an intent to define -- this makes it the most predictable interpretation for both sides which is the only impact to limits.

B) It’s limited enough – it excludes economic assistance, sanctions, debt relief , or any other effectually topical aff. They also don’t lose any ground

C) Aff ground – this is the only interpretation tailored for countries with different levels of democratization. Their interpretation is ad hoc and over-limiting.

3. Their fungibility claims are stupid – it would limit out technical assistance aff’s because advice isn’t fungible. It also limits our election monitoring, rule of law assistant affs which are core of the topic. We’re better for ground, cause increasing money isn’t enough ground for US diplomatic stance.

4. Good is good enough – Competing interpretation leads to a race to the bottom for the most limits. If you want to vote for the most limiting interpretation vote for us because we are the only topical case. If it’s close, err aff cause it’s easy to be neg on this topic.

Case

Magnitude outweighs probability- the likelihood of escalation and scale of devastation means we should act to prevent a terrorist attack at all costs.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

It is all too easy, as Mueller

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cannot escape the logic of the nuclear age.

Nuclear terrorism is the most likely scenario for nuclear weapons use.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

Some observers may agree with the proposition that

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shown great interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.” 23

This support is enough to weaken al-Qaeda’s ideology and win the war on terror.

Zarate and Gordon 11 (Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf, JOB)

Admittedly, in many quarters, the United

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accelerate the defeat of AQAM and its ideology.

The protestors will support Hadi as long as he makes reforms

Reuters 11 (6/18, Analysis: Yemen crisis puts Saudi in powerbroker's bind, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/18/us-saudi-yemen-idUSTRE75H16T20110618)

With Yemen finely poised between transition and regression

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door of history he wants to go through.”

Saudi

Turn – Saudi Arabia just wants a smooth transition.

Financial Times 3/22 “Saudis prepare to abandon Yemen” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cb7e6b94-54b6-11e0-b1ed-00144feab49a.html#axzz1UnQo8lFx

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has turned to neighbour Saudi Arabia to mediate an end to a crisis that he himself has warned could turn into a “civil war” now that pivotal members of the military have defected. But, if the strongman who has ruled over Yemen for 32 years is hoping for Saudi backing, analysts say he is likely to be disappointed. Saudi Arabia would like to see a quick and smooth transition of power in Yemen, where Mr Saleh has been clinging to power in spite of weeks of protests and the dramatic narrowing of his support base, say analysts close to the government in Riyadh. And the kingdom is now concerned that the situation could devolve into a Libyan scenario in which Mr Saleh uses his presidential guards against the people and the army, transforming a revolt against the regime into a civil war. “For Saudi Arabia, the end results for any mediation will be to guarantee stability and a smooth transition of power,’’ says Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi analyst. “The kingdom will not fight for Saleh ... We have very bad experiences with him. The man’s survival makes no difference.” While Riyadh and its Gulf neighbours have intervened on the side of Bahrain’s ruling family, which has launched a crackdown against a Shia uprising, the attitude towards Yemen is shifting to the support of the revolt against Mr Saleh.

And, that spills over to the rest of relations

Christopher Boucek, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program- focusing on security challenges in Arabian Peninsula & Northern Africa, June 21, 2011, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il

Oftentimes, American officials want to go to

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work toward advancing both countries’ goals and interests.

Relations resilient – security and energy interests trump democracy rhetoric

Joshua Teitelbaum, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern History, and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, at Bar-Ilan University, 7-17-2011, “Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities,” BESA, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives.html

So what’s going on here? Basically,

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of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Feb.18'11 ).

Relations are resilient – only the US can provide military protection

Vincent Lauerman, Staff writer, 7-15-2011, “Perspective: Saudi Arabia’s Loveless Marriage,” Energy Compass, Lexis.

However, the US remains the sole military

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long way from making the leap into marriage.

Infrastructure 2AC

Case outweighs: our nuk war impacts are based on perception means will happen quicker

Jobs bill top of the Docket – Obama wants to stay focused

Associated Press 10/12 [“Despite Senate Defeat, Obama Says He'll Keep Fighting for Jobs Bill”, p. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/12/despite-senate-defeat-obama-says-hell-keep-fighting-for-jobs-bill/?test=latestnews]

A day after Senate Republicans blocked action on

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said he isn't taking no for an answer.

Obama said Wednesday that he will keep rallying

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and create nearly 2 million jobs next year.

Senate Republicans defeated the jobs bill on Tuesday. But Obama said the story won't end there.

"Now a lot of folks in Washington

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his first public comments on the bill's defeat.

"We will keep organizing and we will

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White House recognizing Latino contributions to American history.

Obama has no pol cap

____ He spent a ton pushing jobs

Tice, 10/12 (Carol Tice, Jobs Bill Breakup: What Will Entrepreneurs Push For? Entrepreneur, October 12, 2011, http://www.entrepreneur.com/blog/220504)

Late yesterday, the Senate spiked President Barack

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survive and what will be left of them.

1.   Non-Unique – We’ve already cut ties with Saleh politically. Clinton has called for him to step down and Brennan has asked him in person. The plan wouldn’t be perceived as a departure from our current diplomatic strategy. That’s Gude et al.

Also, Your DA in N/U- Feierstein met with Hadi on Tuesday to discuss transition

Saba Net 10/11 (‘USA believes policy os the way to end Yemeni crisis, US diplomats says’, http://www.sabanews.net/en/news250642.htm)

The USA and the international community believe that

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economic and security developments in the local arena.

The damage is already done – Obama just called for the plan in front of the General Assembly

Barak Hussein Obama 9/21/11 (President of the muthafuck’n United States of Amerikuh, Speech to the United Nations General Assembly, CNN, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/21/president-obama-at-the-un-general-assembly/?iref=allsearch)

"In Yemen, men, women and

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free and fair elections as soon as possible."

2.      No Link – all of their evidence assumes economic and military aid – the plan wouldn’t spark a debate about conditions on aid because it doesn’t spend any money.

And turn

And Brennan is already spinning the plan as a new counterterrorism strategy

Keith Johnson 9/8/11 (Staff Writer, the Wall Street Journal, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/09/08/brennan-to-republicans-back-off-on-military-tribunals-for-terrorism-suspects/)

John Brennan, President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser

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group has conquered some territory in southern Yemen.

Agent of the plan can choose not to link to the DA: Disads must be intrinsic for competitive equity: rational decision making, better debate, argument diversity and better research

Aid CP

You need a strong, stable government before anything else.

Saif, ’10 [Ahmed A., Europe’s World, “State Building in Yemen: Unfinished Process.”]

Stability in Yemen will only come when trust

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pre-requisite for the other two institutions.

***Backchannel CP***

No solvo case: Has to be Clinton and Roj, Gude best signal for the people of Yemen

Perm do both

Double bind Envoy can’t be in secret

Phase one of the GCC deal has excluded groups that are key to resolving the crisis in Yemen

Alley & Al-Iryani 12/23 (David W. Alley, Retired Lieutenant-Colonel in the US Army and Middle East Foreign Area officer and currently the COO of Lime-a political risk advisory firm, Abdulghani al-iryani is an independent political analyst based in Yemen, “A difficult road ahead for Yemen’s political transition”,

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)

The accord is not without critics, or

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abuses should be investigated and brought to trial.

Political Inclusiveness has been put off until Phase II of the deal – but that makes instability inevitable and crashes implementation of Phase I.

Alley & Al-Iryani 12/23 (David W. Alley, Retired Lieutenant-Colonel in the US Army and Middle East Foreign Area officer and currently the COO of Lime-a political risk advisory firm, Abdulghani al-iryani is an independent political analyst based in Yemen, “A difficult road ahead for Yemen’s political transition”,

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)

The accord is not without critics, or

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their priorities and preferences for the national dialogue.

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial assistance to develop a constitution for the Republic of Yemen emphasizing political inclusivity for the democratic transition including the southern movement.

Contention 1: Terrorism

Moderate Southern movement wants a federal state and unrest will not stop until their needs are met – this allows AQAP to take over the south.

Al Arabiya 11 “Two soldiers killed as thousands of southern Yemenis call for secession from the north” http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/30/180106.html

Late on Tuesday, a similar crowd had

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, the Partisans of Sharia (Islamic law).

We have two impacts: First is oil

AQAP is taking control of key coastal regions in the south – fuels piracy and cuts off access along the red sea

Guzansky et al 11 (Yoel, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Jonathan Schachter, Research Associates at the Institute for National Security Studies, “Power, Pirates, and Petroleum: Maritime Chokepoints in the Middle East,” Strategic Assessment, Volume 14, Number 2, July 2011, http://www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com/resources/INSS%20-%20Strategic%20Assessment%20July_2011.pdf)

Though states interests in the Red Sea area

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of these states are a widely shared interest.

The impact is a loss of 80% of Middle East oil.

Guzansky et al ’11 (Yoel, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Jonathan Schachter, Research Associates at the Institute for National Security Studies, “Power, Pirates, and Petroleum: Maritime Chokepoints in the Middle East,” Strategic Assessment, Volume 14, Number 2, July 2011, http://www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com/resources/INSS%20-%20Strategic%20Assessment%20July_2011.pdf)

There are numerous strategic ramifications to transport in

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total imports and exports pass through the port.

Lack of access to Middle East oil causes price spikes and shocks – devastates the economic recovery and spreads globally

Newman 2011

Rick Newman, February 18, 2011,

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Oil, however, is a different story

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, it could be a game-changer.

For now, the overthrow of any Persian

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. "There's something more in the air."

[See 3 big lies about cutting the deficit.]

Water-cooler worst-case scenarios focus

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control seems to be under stress once again.

One common assumption is that if political developments

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can be more powerful than the underlying fundamentals.

[See how to survive tax hikes and spending cuts.]

The world got a primer on that in

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and higher. The market can overshoot significantly."

If oil prices could surge by 50 percent

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the oil fields pumping in many Gulf states.

[See 5 reasons to stop fearing China.]

The global economy can probably withstand a 10

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impact on the world economy would be significant."

Oil wars cause extinction

Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, 2003 (The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, p. 230)

Today the average US citizen uses five times

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but of humanity and most of the biosphere.

Second is nuclear terrorism:

AQAP has the ability to launch a nuclear attack-at least dirty bomb

Grossman 6/10 (Elaine M., Global Security Newswire, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php)

Attacks targeting the United States by AQAP operatives

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Bragg, Texas -- reportedly survived without injury.

Nuclear terrorism attack will cause extinction – even-if it fails

Ahmed 4 (Mohamed, Political analyst for

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/2004/705/op5.htm)

What would be the consequences of a nuclear

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whole planet, we will all be losers.

Even small terror attack on the homeland will trigger US lashout. US will go to war to reassure the public.

Byman 7 [Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies @ Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “US Counter-terrorism Options: A Taxonomy,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 3 September 2007, pages 121 – 150Informaworld]

One of the biggest problems with containment is

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and regions have seen terrorists derail peace talks.

This results in great power nuclear conflict - preemption and miscalculation, US retaliation draws in Russia and China to full-scale nuclear war.

Ayson 10 Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Contention 2: Hegemony

Lack of an inclusive central government makes north-south civil war inevitable.

Khaleej Times 11 “Making peace in Yemen” Dec 15 http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2011/December/opinion_December62.xml&section=opinion&col=

He has officially signed away his powers,

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calling for in protests the past 11 months.

South will push for secession if they continue to be ignored by the transition

Zimmerman 11 Katherine Zimmerman is an Analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. Her work at AEI has focused on al Qaeda and its associated movements in the Gulf of Aden. Katherine specializes in the Yemen-based group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Somalia’s al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab. She has conducted briefings for congressional staffers and published analyses of U.S. national security interests in Yemen and Somalia. Katherine graduated with distinction from Yale University with a B.A. in Political Science and Modern Middle East Studies. “Scenario 1: Peaceful transition of power from Saleh to some successor(s).” AEI Critical Threats, April 11, 2011, http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimates-scenario-1

The resolution of negotiations and the resignation of

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civil war – will accept former leaders’ return.

State fragmentation guts CT effectiveness and clogs intelligence gathering – makes the south an isolated safe havens for AQAP

Zimmerman 11 Katherine Zimmerman is an Analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. Her work at AEI has focused on al Qaeda and its associated movements in the Gulf of Aden. Katherine specializes in the Yemen-based group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Somalia’s al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab. She has conducted briefings for congressional staffers and published analyses of U.S. national security interests in Yemen and Somalia. Katherine graduated with distinction from Yale University with a B.A. in Political Science and Modern Middle East Studies. AEI Critical Threats “Yemen Strategic Exercise Estimates for Scenario 3: State fragmentation with or without Saleh nominally in charge in Sana’a.” April 27 http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/pdf_upload/analysis/Yemen_Strategic_Exercise_2011_Estimates_for_Scenario_3.pdf

Impact on security forces State of security forces

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another major international attack under these favorable conditions.

Obama’s lack of diplomatic options to contain AQAP leaves only military intervention that is increasing in the squo – Yemen will be worse than Afganistan and crashes Heg

Lynch 10 (Marc, Associate Prof of Pol Sci and International Affairs and Director of Institute for Middle East Studies and Director of Middle East Studies Program @ Elliot School of International Affairs @ George Washington University, “Don’t lose perspective on Yemen”, http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/02/bad_ideas_on_yemen)

The failed underpants bomber's alleged (and in

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.

Plan is key to divert this military intervention - which would make future deterrence efforts useless

SSI 11 (Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, February, “The conflict in Yemen and US National Security”, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/)

The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should

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radicalism before the subject of intervention even arises.

Nuclear war

Kagan 7 (Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 19, 2007 (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History,” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html)

This is a good thing, and it

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and global involvement will provide an easier path.

Contention 3: Solvency

Now is key – political inclusiveness guarantees successful election and credible dialogue amongst factions that are key to stability in Yemen

Alley & Al-Iryani 12/23 (David W. Alley, Retired Lieutenant-Colonel in the US Army and Middle East Foreign Area officer and currently the COO of Lime-a political risk advisory firm, Abdulghani al-iryani is an independent political analyst based in Yemen, “A difficult road ahead for Yemen’s political transition”,

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)

The accord is not without critics, or

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abuses should be investigated and brought to trial.

Establishment of a more inclusive process cannot wait

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carry out early elections and a credible dialogue.

Fortunately, the implementation mechanism document mandates that

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immediate action be taken to broaden meaningful inclusion.

Several steps could be taken in this respect

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their priorities and preferences for the national dialogue.

It is crucial for the US to maintain ties with Yemenis during the transition- Involvement crucial for intelligence gathering about AQAP

Peter Knoetgen 5/16, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 5/16/11, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil” http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

While efforts to combat the long-term

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US policy and identify its proper main efforts.

US key- successful model of federalism and excellent starting point for constitutional reform

Mihalakas 11 Nasos Mihalakas, Assistant Professor of International Trade Law, “A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring” Foreign Policy Association, June 7 http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/

When federalism at the national level is applied

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world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

US support for the south key – solves anti-americanism and diminishes AQAP control of the territories.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

The U.S. increasingly is cast

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to them and must be determined through dialogue.

A federal state is a compromise for those with different perspectives on the Southern issue. Overall, it is critical that the Southern issue be prioritized in order to solve Yemen’s underlying crises.

ICG 10/20 “Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question” International Crisis Group Middle East Report N°114 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/114%20Breaking%20Point%20-%20Yemens%20Southern%20Question.pdf

To the surprise of its organisers, approximately

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and even Southern government employees living in Sanaa.

Aid to Egypt now –military and economic democracy assistance and debt relief for Egypt were passed, Congress already uptight about it.

Al-Arabiya 12/31 (“Egypt risks losing military aid after conducting raids on international NGOs” Al-Arabiya News, Saturday, 31 December 2011. http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/12/31/185486.html)

“Actions like these are another reason why

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money in,” according to the Democratic senator.

Aid to Morocco now – specifically marketed to Congress as democracy assistance.

PR Newswire 12/23 (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-136156558.html)

WASHINGTON, Dec. 23, 2011 /

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the Western Sahara and elsewhere in the country.