CP 1
The European Union should make political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party
EU solves Egypt – Civic Society, Rule of Law
Pfeil 7/20/11 (Helene, OpenDemocracy, “The EU in the Arab Spring”, CC
Regarding the electoral processes that will take place
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as well as on the European continent itself.
DA 1
Will pass- Obama will submit before Lee in a few weeks- all their args about procedural disagreement don’t assume political capital
The Hill 10/1/2011 (Three long-delayed trade agreements to move to Congress,
"Talks are going well but nothing is
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visits with President Obama on Oct. 13.
Current political context ensures the plan drains capital
Katulis, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, 5-23-11
On The Hill May 23, 2011 Monday 6:13 AM EST What Now, Mr. President? Obamas Middle East Speech Now Requires Follow Through BYLINE: Scott Nance Brian Bookmark The Washington Current LENGTH: 1516 words May 23, 2011 (The Washington Current delivered by Newstex) This article was published by the Center for American Progress. By Brian Katulis
Thats also true on the political front at
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the American public in this current political context.
PC KEY TO SKFTA – SOLVES THE ECONOMY AND RELATIONS.
GALLI 10. [Teresa, Global Market Research Analyst @ Global Marketing Associates, “The South Korea - US Free Trade Agreement” June 21]
Although riddled with the imperfections inherent to free
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require strength, persistence, and much compromise.
RELATIONS SOLVE MULTIPLE SCENARIOS OF WAR.
PRITCHARD ET AL 9. [Jack, President, Korea Economic Institute, John Tilelli, Chairman and CEO, Cypress Int’l, and Scott Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, “A New Chapter for U.S.-South Korea alliance” Council on Foreign Relations June 16]
While all eyes have been trained on North
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cooperation in the service of our shared interests.
War in Korea causes extinction through nuclear exchange, ozone collapse, ag, and the economy
Hayes, Victoria University, and Green, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, 10 [Peter and Michael, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5, ]
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation
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that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
DA 2
Saudi Arabia perceives US strategic interests as fundamentally aligned now- maintaining the current agreement on the Arab Spring is key.
Araabi 8/23/2011 (Samer, graduated from the London School of Economics with an MSc in Conflict Studies, and holds dual bachelor's degrees in Political Theory and Economics, contributor to a number of prominent foreign policy sites including the Institute for Policy Studies, Foreign Policy in Focus, the Balkans Project, and the Arab American Institute, The Saudi Counter-Revolution, Institute for Policy Studies,
The reaction of U.S. elites
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U.S. weapons worldwide.[13]
Democracy assistance is perceived as actively undermining Saudi interests in Egypt, and giving the country to Iran
Daily News Egypt 7/27/2011 (Iran courts post-Mubarak Egypt, worrying allies, lexis)
One of Egypt's ruling generals took great pains
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-member Egyptian delegation visiting Tehran in June.
All Saudi decisions are read through the prism of Iran- assistance to current democratic groups convinces the Saudis that they need nukes
Straits Times 6/18/2011 (Saudi Arabia at the crossroads, lexis)
There is no question that the Saudi armed
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workers, many of whom remit money home.
Egypt is the key test case for the reliability of the US
Haass and Danin 2011 (6/23, Richard and Robert, President, Council on Foreign Relations; and Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Council On Foreign Relations Meeting Subject: The Arab Spring Uprisings: Initial Observations, Federal News Service, lexis)
MR. HAASS: Saudi Arabia: obviously
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based on and where the red lines exist.
Saudi abandonment causes them to get nukes- multiple scenarios for extinction
Bowman 2008 (Bradley, at time of writing, Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff member for the Middle East under Senator Lugar, major and strategic plans and policy officer in the U.S. Army. As an assistant professor of American Politics, Policy, and Strategy and an academic counselor in the department of social sciences at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Major Bowman taught courses in American foreign policy and American politics, as well as designed and taught a new course entitled "Studies in Grand Strategy" that was featured on NPR. Major Bowman served brief details on the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff and in the Office of Secretary of Defense for Policy during the summer of 2006. He earned an MA in international relations from Yale (2004) and a BS in American politics from the United States Military Academy at West Point (1995), CHAIN REACTION: AVOIDING A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, REPORT TO THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, UNITED STATES SENATE,
One can envision three scenarios that could prompt
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vying for influence in a notoriously unstable region.
DA 3
Unique Internal Link—The plan collapses U.S.-Relations and causes a wave of autocratic regimes to collapse
Hill Director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe and Senior Fellow in its foreign policy program and was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council Foreign Policy ’11 (Fiona, “How Russia and China See the Egyptian Revolution,” February 15, ,1, Mike)
In moving forward on a strategy for Egypt
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-called color revolutions of 2003 to 2005.
Russia will pursue aggressive adventurism in the Middle East—willing to go to war with the U.S.
Von Eggert ‘7 (Konstantin, “Back to the Middle East,” Von Eggert is the Russian Bureau editor of BBC News, March, , Mike)
Moscow's growing attention to the Middle East continues
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for staking a new claim for global importance.
Extinction
Caldicott, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002 (Helen, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)
If launched from Russia, nuclear weapons would
AND
even more significant after the September 11 attack.
Advantage 3: Muslim Brotherhood
- Moderates will win the Egyptian elections now- the only way Islamists could come back is to unify around identity politics
Ahram Online 9/13/2011 (Egypt political parties coalesce in readiness for parliamentary elections,
Newly-formed political alliances seem to be
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Alliance may still make it through the elections.
2. Link— Democracy assistance causes Islamist backlash and changes the nature of the election- the only discussion the plan generates is anti-American
Democracy Digest 9/15/2011 (blog and an e-bulletin produced at the National Endowment for Democracy, edited by Michael Allen, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy, New transitions initiative to take light footprint in assisting Arab democracy?,
The danger is that “foreign funding could
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government control and strip them of their independence.”
3. This backlash results in a transformed Egypt—they align by identity politics which allows the Salafist party to control the development of political Islam
El-Houdaiby 8/8/2011 (Ibrahim, freelance columnist and researcher focusing on Islamic movements and democratization, Don't fear the Islamists,
The scene in the square on July 29
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have meant the retreat of many of their supporters
4. Turns case
Ashour 8/7/2011 (Omar, Lecturer in Politics and Director of the Middle East Graduate Studies Program at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter (UK), Mubarak's last laugh?, Daily News Egypt, lexis)
But Salafism is also a powerful source of
AND
and freedom later. Polarization will bring neither.
Even the most extremist government wouldn’t start a war- no resources or incentive
Kaye and Wehrey August 2011 (Dalia and Frederic, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, Arab Spring, Persian Winter Subtitle: Will Iran Emerge the Winner From the Arab Revolt?, Foreign Affairs, lexis)
Not only is the resistance bloc itself more
AND
Israel may find Egypt's new role less alarming.
Your Carothers ev concludes in the un-underlined portion that MusBro will probably reject US assistance- no solvency
Says no to assistance/won’t implement reforms
Anderson 2011 (May/June, Lisa, President of the American University in Cairo, Demystifying the Arab Spring Subtitle: Parsing the Differences Between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, Foreign Affairs, lexis)
As it assumed control of Egypt after Mubarak's
AND
the emphasis of reforms will be on democratization.
No Egypt-Israeli War
Wisner 9/13
Frank G., Repairing the Egypt-Israel Breach, 2k11,
The Egyptian military is charged with running the
AND
of Palestine, would like peace to continue.
Heg
UN Vote tanks cred—your internal link is inevitable
Harris-gershone, 9/12 [David Harris-Gershon – a blogger for Tikkun magazine and a freelance writer on Israel, the Middle East and America’s role in the region – has recently published work in The Jerusalem Post, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, AlterNet, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Colorado Review and elsewhere. His memoir, Shrapnel, is currently seeking publication. He received his MFA from the University of North Carolina, Wilmington, and has worked extensively as an educator, teaching creative writing and Israeli History / Jewish Studies in university and high school classrooms. Two of Obama’s Major Foreign Policy Goals Are About to Collide, ]
Next week, President Obama will travel to
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look kindly upon what is about to transpire.
2. That destroys Middle East credibility and Empowers Iran
AL-FAISAL, 9-12- ’11 (Turki al-Faisal, a former director of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services and a former Saudi ambassador to the United States, is chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, “Veto a State, Lose an Ally”, NYT)
The United States must support the Palestinian bid
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the chances of another war in the region.
US Heg Has No Ability to Prevent War
Christopher Layne, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A & M University, 2006, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present, p. 178
The bottom line is that the arguments of
AND
to determine the extent of its military involvement.
Hege collapse inevitable – U.S. showing multiple facets of a waning empire – econ, influence
By Niall Ferguson, February 28, 2010 Niall Ferguson is a professor at Harvard University and Harvard Business School, and a fellow of Jesus College, Oxford. His latest book is "The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World." A longer version of this essay appears in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs. foreign.affairs.com ,0,7706980.story
For centuries, historians, political theorists,
AND
and fiscal steps that were taken in response.
Transition is smooth – decline in power causes global cooperation
Carla Norrlof (an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto) 2010 “America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. 50
Keohane and Snidal’s predictions – that the waning
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the literature and cast decline as inescapable and continuous
American influence and dominance is diminished now – Clinton tour proves
Tisdall 7-14 (Simon, staff writer, The Guardian UK. “Hillary Clinton circumnavigates a sphere of diminishing US influence”. July 14th, 2011.
AND
take her into the sphere of superpower rivalries.
Iraq kills soft power- shirking of international law.
Roberts 4/26, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review.
(Paul, The World is Uniting Against the Bush Imperium,
By launching a war of aggression on the
AND
. An isolated country is not a superpower.
Terrorism
Threats of nuclear terrorism are overblown
Lind 11 [Policy Director of the New America Foundation’s Economic Growth Program 3/25 (Michael, “So Long, Chicken Little,” Foreign Policy March/April pg. 25-27, Mike)
Why is it that fallacies in foreign policy
AND
really might be the sum of all fears.
Zero chance of U.S. lashout – multiple warrants
Bremmer 4 (Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and senior fellow at the World Policy Institute, September 13, 2004, The New Statesman)
What would happen if there were a new
AND
support it enjoyed for the invasion of Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda is Losing Support Now – the Arab Spring is Reorienting Public Opinion Towards Pragmatism
Daniel Byman professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and the research director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 9/1/2011 The Future of Al-Qaida A look at where al-Qaida is headed over the next 10 years,
Ayman Zawahiri, the new leader of alQaida
AND
. What are its prospects for the future?
Zawahiri is Losing His Base – He is Too Polarizing To Establish Unity and U.S. Drones Prevent the Possibility of Reconciliation
Daniel Byman professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and the research director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 9/1/2011 The Future of Al-Qaida A look at where al-Qaida is headed over the next 10 years,
Zawahiri's most immediate challenge is internal. Although
AND
for terrorist leaders to gather or even communicate.
The Link Only Goes One Way – Pro U S Opinion is Overwhelmed by Resentment Over Multiple Unpopular Policies in the Region
Daniel Byman professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and the research director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 9/1/2011 The Future of Al-Qaida A look at where al-Qaida is headed over the next 10 years,
Fortunately for Zawahiri, it will be easy
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United States and Israel will remain close friends.