Plan
The United States federal government ought to provide technical support for transparent democratic governance in Libya
First, Gadhafi’s fall in Libya threatens to devolve into instability and violence – promoting democracy is critical to stabilize the transition
Kiriakou 8/22 (John, Former CIA counterterrorism officer, “Let’s Not Make the Same Iraq Mistakes in Libya”, Huffington Post World, 8/22, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-kiriakou/libya-gaddafi-iraq-_b_933463.html)
Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year dictatorship …. participate in the democratic process.
Second, Aid is Inevitable – It’s Only a question of whether its economic aid or transparent governance building
Ruet Cohen Staff Writer 8/25 cites Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, a recognized expert on political Islam and American Islamist organizations [“What's Next For Libya?” http://www.neontommy.com/news/2011/08/whats-next-libya]
Some reports have indicated that there … also be very transparent.
a) Only Governance Support Can Solve – Economic Aid results in War and Extremism
Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 [James, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation. Frederic, s a senior policy analyst at RAND. “Libyan Nation Building After Qaddafi” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?]
The United States can assist … an established civil society suggest that the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.
b) Libya is a key buffer-zone for regional stability
Huang 8/24 [Ryan, Singapore News, “Oil Prices to Soften: Analysts”, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1148740/1/.html]
From the Arab Spring to the …. For example, some expect petrol prices to drop as much as 10 percent over the next 12 months.
c) Instability keeps civilian oil workers out of Libya – killing oil production
LRC 6/13 (Libyan Revolution Central, “Libyan rebel NOC head says oil output will take months to restore,” http://feb17.info/news/libyan-rebel-noc-head-says-oil-output-will-take-months-to-restore/, CW, accessed on 8/2/11)
There had been damage to infrastructure at the… weeks for output to be restored.
Third, US key
1. No other actor can galvanize support from the people
Hamid 11 [Shadi, director of research @ Brooking Doha Center. fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring. October 1 http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1#]
Two days before Mubarak stepped down, I met … the ones who need to do it.”
2. US institutional knowledge key to build democratic institutions
Vandewalle 11 (Dirk, prof at Dartmouth College, “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities,” Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, 6 April, 2011,
Assuming the outcome of the ongoing conflict … derived from oil and natural gas.
3. The plan is a win for Obama – assistance in Libyan civil war overcame massive unpopularity – only the US can fill-in
Robert Kagan senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. 8/27 [“Obama needs to resist the temptation to run away from Libya as quickly as possible, says FPI Director Robert Kagan”, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/obama-needs-resist-temptation-run-away-libya-quickly-possible-says-fpi-director-robert-kagan]
Still, the end of Qaddafi’s rule is a … months predicting certain failure.
Advantage 1 is Oil
First, Oil prices rebounding – Libyan fields beginning to produce
Business Day 9/8 [Oil rebounds to end week flat. http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-rebounds-to-end-week-flat-20111008-1lef8.html#ixzz1agTkoh1M]
Brent also dropped below the $US100 … Middle East Economic Survey reported on Friday.
We will Isolate Two Reasons why Libya is Critical
First, Light Sweet Crude
Stability is key – The Impact is Libyan and Global Economy
Morse and Lee 9/10 Edward Head of Global Commodity Research at Citi Eric a Research Analyst at Citi [“The Libyan Oil Tap” http://mespectator.blogspot.com/2011/09/libyan-oil-tap.html]
When the unrest in Libya began this …workovers before production can be restarted.
Libyan Oil Disportionately key to world Oil
Shufelt 8/22 [Tim, General assignment reporter for the Financial Post, covering Canadian, U.S. and international economies, currencies, capital markets and more. “Reviving Libyan oil no easy task” http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/22/reviving-libyan-oil-no-easy-task/]
The country’s ambiguous … would certainly ease oil market conditions.
Libyan Oil key – Overthrow proves effect on oil market
Hawkes 8/25 [Steve, Was originally staff Business Journalist for the Times, in 2008 became the Business Editor for The Sun “Who will grab Gaddafi’s oil?” http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/3773979/Who-will-grab-Gaddafis-oil.html]
And it gives the green … and its fall when the rebels entered Tripoli this week.
Independently – Stabilized Libyan Oil is Key to Oil Prices throughout the World – Libyan Sweet oil is uniquely key to effective and cheap world production – Absent this, Prices will continue to rise
Belogolova 8/25 [Olga, s a staff reporter for National Journal. She covers issues relating to energy and the environment. Prior to joining National Journal, Belogolova was the West Coast Editor of Encore Magazine. “What Happens to Libyan Oil After Qaddafi?” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/what-happens-to-libyan-oil-after-qaddafi/244119/]
In 2010, the U.S. drawdown … world oil prices hit their highest levels since 2008.
Second, Supply Peak
Three Internal Links
1. OPEC
a. They can’t keep up oil production – This independently leads to global double dip recession
Cala 6/12 [Andres, August 12, 2011 “Rising demand for oil could lead to global double-dip recession,” http://www.abc12.com/story/15258781/rising-demand-for-oil-could-lead-to-global-double-dip-recession]
When the global economy slows, …revised downward by 0.1 million bpd each year, mostly due to depleted field production and unplanned outages.
b. Recent Increases in Production Prove that OPEC Can’t Hold the World up – Without Easing Production we will Experience a Peak in 2015
Salameh 2011 [Mamdouh, is an international oil economist, a consultant to the World Bank in Washington DC and a technical expert of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in Vienna. Dr Salameh is Director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service in the UK and a member of both the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London and the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He is also a member of the Energy Institute in London and an advisor of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in the UK. “Saudi Oil Production Peak: Impact on the Oil Price & Global Oil Security” USAEE-IAEE WP 11-080 http://ssrn.com/abstract=1863210]
An analysis of the global oil market …recession from which the global economy is still suffering.
c. Link is Reversal Causal on Two Levels:
A. High Oil Perpetuates Resource Curse – Preventing Democracy from Flourishing throughout the Region – Solves regional Instability
B. Continued Production From Libya Directly Decreases Saudi and OPEC Oil Production
Hamdan 9/22 [Sara, “Gulf states likely to cut oil output as Libya recovers; OPEC forecasts country will return to pre-revolt capacity by 18 months” (l/n)]
Gulf members of OPEC will cut their …immediate threat to what is going on in the region.''
2. No Other Sources
a. Running out now-Hidden reserves doesn’t solve the crisis, just delays-Demand still leads to a peak.
Jamail 11 (Dahr, 7-25, writer for Al Jazeera, “the scourge of peak oil” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/201172081613634207.html, ad: 8-9-11, qm)
In March 2010, Oxford University published … and we're not going to find many new ones."
b. Domestic Drilling doesn’t solve supply – Diminishing Returns
Kohl 8/30 [Keith, Baltimore, MD - Managing Editor, Energy and Capital “Opportunity at the Peak: Can We Drill Out of Saudi Chains?” http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/peak-oil-investing/1739]
Drilling Deeper than Ever Before One morning … oil fields are in, and the outlook becomes even more grim.
First is Oil Shocks
Instability triggers massive oil shocks – that collapse the global economy
Stelzer 11 (Irwin M., Contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London), 3/7, “A Libyan Oil Shock?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/libyan-oil-shock_552544.html?page=2)
But there is oil and there is oil, just as there is coal … commodities continue their upward trend, interest rates will rise.
That risks a massive global oil shock– Production outages would become systemic
Atuanya 11 [Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector [Dennis U. Atuanya (B.Sc. Hons (Geology), M.Sc. (Geophysics)), “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. ]
There is the possibility of a global crude oil … all economies, but more so where recovery is still inchoate.
Shocks Eviscerate the Economy – Three Internals: Consumer Spending, Growth, and Employment
González Nabiyev 2009 [Aarón Sherzod, JÖNKÖPING INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SCHOOL “Oil price fluctuations and its effect on GDP growth: A case study of USA and Sweden”
Since petroleum became very important commodity …will affect equity and bond valuations, and currency exchange rates.
This is Empirical – Last 11 Recessions Prove
Hamilton 2011 [James D., Department of Economics University of California, San Diego. 2/1. “Historical Oil Shocks” Handbook of Major Events in Economic History.
As noted in the previous sections, these historical episodes … traditional sources such as the North Sea, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, if production from the latter has indeed peaked.
4 Impacts:
Unique Risk – Double Dip à Nationalist Pressures
Roubini 9/19 [Nouriel, is Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and co-author of the book Crisis Economics. “How to Prevent a Depression” http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini42/English]
The risks ahead … such a sequence is bold and aggressive global policy action now.
First, That Causes Nuclear War Across the Globe
a. Failure to Prevent Collapse Leads to Indo-Pak War
Cusick 9 [James Cusick, Westminster Editor of the Glasgow Sunday Herald, 3-14, 2009, “Don’t bank on financial trouble being resolved without conflict,” The Sunday Herald, online:
Yet more alarmism from a …expand its sphere of economic interests. Need I to go on?
b. Independently, Indo-Pak conflict Causes Extinction
Ghulam Nabi Fai, Kashmiri American Council, July 8, 2001, Washington Times
The foreign policy of the United States in … or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.
Second Diversionary War
a. Crisis makes diversionary theory true – states will start wars to head off domestic discontent – and use force to settle old disputes with rivals
Rothkopf 9 – David Rothkopf, Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3-11, 2009, “Security and the Financial Crisis,” Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee, CQ Congressional Testimony, lexis
Destabilizing Bilateral or Regional Effects of the Crisis: …. with neighbors on issues of common concern.
b. Decline magnifies the severity of other conflicts – WWII only became a World War because of the Depression
Miller 8 [G. Robert M. Miller, journalist for Digital Journal, 10-25, 2008, “Guns vs. Shovels – The Central Question Behind Our Next Economy,” online:
But before we look at the modern ‘… considerably improved; this was true for many western nations.
c. Multiple Points Exist – Guarantees Extinction
Ockham Research, independent research branch of Financial Market Management Inc, ‘8 (Nov 17th, “Economic Turmoil Begets Geopolitical Risks”, )
The economic turmoil roiling world … and unpredictable in its behavior, with dangerous consequences for the U.S. and the world.
Third, Low Prices are Only Stable world
a. Tar sand production inevitable with high oil prices – profitability
Stockman 10 (Lorne, May 6, “Tar Sands Oil Means High Gas Prices”, http://dirtyoilsands.org/files/CEI-TarSandsMeansHigherOilPrices.pdf), Corporate Ethics International
Tar sands (also known as oil sands) oil production is the most expensive … expansion cost $14 billion but only added 100,000 b/d of crude oil capacity.
b. Impact is environmental destruction – deforestation, water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions
Flower 10 – analyst (Merlin, April 28, “Tar sand mining gaining force”, http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/Tar-sand-mining-gaining-force.php),
Apart from pollution, the mining causes deforestation, … the only way to prevent an environmental disaster.
c. Extinction
Li 2011 [Minqi, was a political prisoner in China from 1990 to 1992. He received PhD in economics from University of Massachusetts Amherst in 2002. He taught political science at York University, Canada from 2003 to 2006. He has been teaching economics at University of Utah since 2006. He has published many articles on peak oil, climate change, and global economic crisis in journals such as Monthly Review, Science & Society, Review, Journal of World Systems Research, Development & Change, and Journal of Contemporary Asia. He has given invited talks on these subjects in US, Canada, China, and Europe on numerous occasions. His book The Rise of China and the Demise of the Capitalist World Economy was published by the Pluto Press and the Monthly Review Press in 2009. “Peak Energy and the Limits to Global Economic Growth” Independent Research Report July 2011]
It is now widely understood that human economic … of the human civilization for centuries to come is at stake.
Finally Fourth, No alternative To Oil:
a. Transitions impossible – green paradox
Allsopp and Fattouh 2011 [Christopher, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford. Bassam, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford, and Department of Financial and Management Studies, SOAS, University of London “Oil and international energy” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 27, Number 1, 2011, pp. 1–32]
A particular uncertainty, which is especially … by maintaining increasingly stringent constraints on investment and supply.
b. Solar, Wind, Biofuels, and Hydo-electeric can’t replace coal and oil – To ineffiecient and expensive
Li 2011 [Minqi, was a political prisoner in China from 1990 to 1992. He received PhD in economics from University of Massachusetts Amherst in 2002. He taught political science at York University, Canada from 2003 to 2006. He has been teaching economics at University of Utah since 2006. He has published many articles on peak oil, climate change, and global economic crisis in journals such as Monthly Review, Science & Society, Review, Journal of World Systems Research, Development & Change, and Journal of Contemporary Asia. He has given invited talks on these subjects in US, Canada, China, and Europe on numerous occasions. His book The Rise of China and the Demise of the Capitalist World Economy was published by the Pluto Press and the Monthly Review Press in 2009. “Peak Energy and the Limits to Global Economic Growth” Independent Research Report July 2011]
Hydro electricity is currently the most important … about 170 giga-watts of all types of power plants a year (including about 60 giga-watts of hydro and other renewable power plants)
Second is the Eurozone
High Prices Siphon Off Consumer Spending – Eurozone Proves – Prices have put Them on the Brink
Roos 2011 [Jérôme E, is a writer, activist and political economist specialising in climate and energy policy, international development and global financial crises. He is a regular contributor for the Breakthrough Institute on European Affairs. “The cost of revolution and the course of true love” public policy research 56 – March–May 2011]
High oil prices affect the economy … flaring up of European debt problems’.7
Specifically, Libyan oil is key to The European economy – Proximity and Quality Has Caused
Pack 11 (Jason, 4-18, Jason, researches Libya at St Antony's College, Oxford University, “Libya is Too Big to Fail”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/18/libya_is_too_big_to_fail?page=full)
In 2008, I changed my career as an academic of … world economy and the Libyan people.
Rising Demand and Instability in the Eurozone Means the Next Shock will Collapse it
Halligan 8/6 [Liam, The Telegraph, “We can't rely on oil prices or QE to save us from this messWe can't rely on oil prices or QE to save us from this mess”, ]
The eurozone endgame, too, is anyone’s guess…. burns more than 10m barrels daily.
That Causes Global Trade War
Reuters 11 [“Euro Woes Increase Risk of Trade Wars”, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2010/05/20/euro-woes-increase-risk-of-trade-wars/]
Europe won’t just be exporting …will be one of the key issues of 2010 and 2011.
Those Cause Extinction
Friedberg And Schoenfeld, 10-21-‘8 ( Aaron and Gabriel, Professor of politics and international relations @ Princeton University & Visiting scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, “The Dangers of a Diminished America: In the 1930s, isolationism and protectionism spurred the rise of fascism.?”, Wall Street Journal, The Dangers of a Diminished America?, WSJ)
In such a scenario there are … divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.
Third is China
Two Scenarios:
1. Internal Stability
High oil prices collapse the CCP
Peek 11 [Liz, The Fiscal Times, “Oil Price Surge: How Libya Threatens China Growth”, April 13, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/04/13/Oil-Price-Surge-How-Libya-Threatens-China-Growth.aspx]
For China, though, the Libyan engagement …. forces than to put the “inflation tiger” back in its cage.
Specifically, This Causes U.S.-Sino War
Richard Halloran, former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, February 13, 2008 (South China Morning Post, “Oil scarcity paints a bleak picture for Asia,” Lexis)
A fresh assessment of Asia's … cause of hostilities across the region.
THIS IS Unique
a. South China Sea On Razors edge of Breaking out – China’s Territorial Claims are creating Fissures – Oil is THE KEY concern
Canberra Times 9/29 [The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South-East Asian Studies in Singapore. “China turns up heat in maritime heart of SE Asia” (l/n)]
A struggle over oil and gas resources …US and its allies more actively into the dispute. India appears set to follow.
b. U.S.-Sino War Escalates – Recent Maritime Disputes Have Forced the EA security Structure into a U.S.–China Divide
Cohen 9/23 [David, “South China Sea Peace Zone?” http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/23/south-china-sea-peace-zone/]
The Philippines pushed ASEAN … Asia’s other giant into the conflict on Vietnam’s side.
c. Guarantees Extinction
Glaser 2011 (Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, Will China's Rise Lead to War? Subtitle: Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism, Foreign Affairs, March/April, lexis)
ACCOMMODATION ON TAIWAN? The prospects … Chinese military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.
2. Chinese Economy
China – can’t sustain high levels of growth without increasing need for oil
IMF 11 (International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook, April 2011: Tensions from the Two-speed Recovery” Ch. 3 “Chapter 3 Oil Scarcity, Growth , and Global Imbalances” April AQB)
Oil is the most important source of primary … relationship between energy and income.
High Oil Prices and Volatility Guartees Blackouts – Stalls the Entire Country
Rubin 6/6 (Jeff, 6-6, twenty years as Chief Economist for a North American investment bank, “china, not U.S. key to global oil demand” http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jeff-rubin/china-not-us-key-to-global-oil-demand, ad: 8-17-11,)
Past power outages have … in China from new sales this year.
Declining Chinese Economy Threatens the Global Economic Structure – High Risk Recession
Erikson and Collins 11 [Gabe, is a commodity and security specialist focused on China and Russia. This is an edited and abridged version of a longer analysis. Andrew, is an associate professor at the US Naval War College and fellow in the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Programme. “China’s S-Shaped Threat” http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/06/chinas-s-shaped-threat/?all=true]
According to the US National Intelligence Council (NIC), ‘China is … more difficult sets of ‘guns vs. butter’ decisions.
Slow economic growth leads to political instability and internal breakup, jeopardizing stability of the entire Asian-Pacific region and triggering ethnic tensions.
Chuang 2011 [Liow Boon Chuang, “A weak or strong China: which is better for the Asia Pacific region?”, Jan-Mar 2011, ]
'In the past, a weak China, beset … of millions of refugees flooding the region. Another concern is the loss of economic onDortunities for the region.
These Escalating Tensions Ensure Nuclear Weapons Exchange
Auslin and Lachman 9 [Michael and Desmond, resident scholars at the American Enterprise Institute, The Global Economy Unravels, March 6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187]
What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? ….a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.
Extinction
Jonathan S. Landay, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, 2K [“Top Administration Officials Warn Stakes for U.S. Are High in Asian Conflicts”, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, March 10, p. Lexis]
Few if any experts think China and Taiwan, … last year, according to the Commerce Department.
