Advantage 1 is the Transition
Despite Current Levels of Violence the SCAF Has Kept the Protests Fragmented – SCAF Must Maintain Perceptions of Credibility to Ensure a Complete Transition
Daily News Egypt 12/23/2011 (ANALYSIS: Violent protests may extend Egypt army's predominance, lexis)
Street politics against the military cause Egyptian instability and kill the economy
Daily News Egypt 12/23/2011 (ANALYSIS: Violent protests may extend Egypt army's predominance, lexis)
Violent unrest by AND of the people
Absent Rule of Law This Cycle is Inevitable
Aziz, 11 (Sahar, Associate Professor at Texas Wesleyan School of Law, a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, “Rule Of Law, Not Rule By Law for Egypt”, 11/26/11, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sahar-aziz/rule-of-law-not-rule-by-l_b_1113644.html) WP
Like past dictators, AND to that end.
That Makes a Second Revolution Likely
Jordan Times – 12/27/2011 Egypt- Anger in Tahrir as Islamists abandon protest movement http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093467229&src=MOEN
(MENAFN - Jordan Times) AND Hussein said
Scenario 1 is Terrorism
Continued Instability Makes Egypt a Hotbed for Terrorism
Ilan Berman vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council. December 29 2011
Al-Qaeda's Newest Outpost http://www.forbes.com/sites/ilanberman/2011/12/29/al-qaedas-newest-outpost/
But, as U.S. and AND and Israeli security
And Egypt is Key
Garvey, 6-11-‘11 (William- Strategic Intelligence Studies Graduate Student- American Military University, “Whither Al-Qaeda? The Future of Extremist Groups in Post-Revolutionary North Africa”)
The results of AND they will tread.
Nuclear Terror is Likely
Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment, 5-‘11 http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a AND nuclear terrorism occurs.
but when, where, and on what scale the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.
That Causes Nuclear Terrorism and Guarantees Nuclear Retaliation and an Arms Race
Rhodes Richard, affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Former visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, and author of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” which won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, National Book Award, and National Book Critics Circle Award. 12-14-09“Reducing the nuclear threat: The argument for public safety” http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/reducing-the-nuclear-threat-the-argument-public-safety
The response was AND sending a message
Scenario 2 is Israel
Failure of democracy in Egypt leads to scapegoating; leaders will deflect anti- regime sentiments into anti- Israel sentiments escalating conflict
Byman in 11 Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139
Israel’s fears are much AND spiral into disaster
That Causes Egypt Israel War
Amr Yossef is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Taub Center for Israel Studies at New York University 9/28 2011 Foreign Affairs Securing the Sinai
Instability in Sinai [1] AND neither side wants.
And Israeli Perceptions of Border Threats Makes War Likely
Saleh Al-Naami a Gaza-based journalist, an expert on Israeli affairs and correspondent for the London-based pan-Arab newspaper, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat. 9/21 Israeli alarm over elections in Egypt http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1064/eg01.htm
Amos Yadlin, former AND the past decades.
They Will Use Nukes
Taylor Rose International Relations and Strategic Intelligence – Liberty University, 2011 “The Islamic Revolution Part II”, Youth for Western Civilization, 2-1, http://www.westernyouth.org/articles/the-islamic-revolution-part-ii/
Another source AND of her enemies
Extinction
Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east
The coming storm AND with imperial exhilaration
Advantage 2 is Judicial Independence
Most recent pushes for reform are still held back by internal disagreement- judicial reform is key to independence
Egypt News 11 (12/30, "A year in review-Unfinished business", http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/75314.html
Judicial independence. AND put in place.
Egypts Transition Will Be Modeled – Failure to Institute Rule of Law Collapses Into Regional Authoritarianism
Mohamed Ani Salem Director – Development Works and Coordinator – UN Working Group in the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs 2011 “Return of the Egyptian model?”, 3/10, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1038/op201.htm
Taken together, AND predictions abound.
The New Diamond—Impact is global security
Halperin 11 (Morton H., Senior Advisor – Open Society Institute and Senior Vice President of the Center for American Progress, “Unconventional Wisdom – Democracy is Still Worth Fighting For”, Foreign Policy, January / February, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/unconventional_wisdom?page=0,11
As the United States AND if they succeed
U.S. constitutional influence declining now – Rule of Law Assistance Through Judicial Assistance Programs Like the Plan Are Critical to Realign US Influence
Law and Versteeg 11 [David S. Law, professor of law and political science at Washington University in St. Louis, and Mila Versteeg, associate professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, “The Declining Influence of the United States Constitution”, NYU Law Review Vol. 87, 2012]
In 1987, to mark AND anecdotal impression
Plan solves the key internal link to influence on Jurisprudence
Ryan Suto, President of the Syracuse chapter of the American Constitution Society and will graduate with degrees in law, post-conflict reconstruction, international relations and public relations 7-15-2011, “Judicial Diplomacy: The International Impact of the Supreme Court”, Jurist Legal News & Research, http://jurist.org/dateline/2011/07/ryan-suto-judicial-diplomacy.php
To enhance American AND in recent sessions.
Unconditional Rule of Law Assistance is Key to Credibility
Levine 11 (Mark, 12/15, professor of history at UC Irvine, "Q&A: Have human rights been left behind in Egypt?", http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/20111213115244470203.html)
There are clearly mixed AND other things.
Independently the Plans Pressure on the SCAF Solves Credibility
By Neil Hicks International Policy Advisor 12-21-2011 Egypt: The SCAF Throws Down the Gauntlet http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/21/egypt-the-scaf-throws-down-the-gauntlet/
Whether it likes AND civil society activists
EXTINCTION
Khalilzad, former U.S. ambassador, 11
(Zalmay, United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, 2-8-11, National Review Online, “The Economy and National Security,” http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad, accessed 2-8-11)
We face this AND their regions.
Contention 2 is Solvency
The Plan Solves
Human Rights First, ‘11
How to Seize the Moment in Egypt Blueprint for Congress and the Obama Administration Released April 2011 http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf Human Rights First is a non-profit, nonpartisan international human rights organization based in New York and Washington D.C. To maintain our independence, we accept no government funding.
Potential Vectors of AND vision it demands
Rule of Law Assistance Stabilizes the Transition
Human Rights First, ‘11
How to Seize the Moment in Egypt Blueprint for Congress and the Obama Administration Released April 2011 http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf Human Rights First is a non-profit, nonpartisan international human rights organization based in New York and Washington D.C. To maintain our independence, we accept no government funding.
Speculation aside, AND gains strength
SCAF says yes- recent meetings prove commitment to rule of law reform
AllAfrica 11 (12/21, "Egypt: SCAF, Advisory Council Recommends Stemming Bloodshed, Condemning Violations", http://allafrica.com/stories/201112220623.html)
The joint meeting held by the AND of the republic
Judicial Independence is Key to Maintaining the Transition – That’s Critical to Alleviating Key Concerns of the Protesters
Michael Wahid Hanna fellow and program officer at The Century Foundation. He focuses on issues of international security, human rights, post-conflict justice and U.S. foreign policy in the broader Middle East. 2011 July 26 Special Report: Why the Past is Crucial to Egypt’s Future http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=78#
As Egypt’s AND Egypt's transition
