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UNLV Bato-Velto Aff

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 19:19
  • 1AC Harvard

    • Tournament: Sample Tournament | Round: 1 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Sample Judge

    • 1AC

      Plan: The United States federal government ought to substantially increase civil society direct grants to democratic unregistered non-governmental organizations in the country referenced in United States Code Title 22, Chapter 49, Subchapter I, section 3403 which are not registered with the government of that country.



      No disads—aid now and the money for the plan is already accounted for

      U.S. State Dept. ’11 (“Assistance to Egypt,” May 19,, Mike)

      Renewed Bilateral and Multilateral Support: ...awareness, and promote government transparency.


      But These Recent Changes in US Aid Policy Are Cosmetic – A Majority of aid Went to US Contractors and Not Civil Society Organizations

      Michael Allen Editor of Democracy Digest August 19 2011 Egypt’s military doing ‘exactly what Mubarak did’ to stifle democrats

      The US announced $65 million in...government-approved NGOs.


      The Plan is Key to Solidify Commitment to Civil Society – Decoupling Democracy Assistance From Egyptian Politics Reaffirms Our Commitment to a Democratic Transition

      By Quinn O'Keefe Senior Associate, Human Rights Defenders August 16 2011 “U.S. Should Be Proud of Doing the Right Thing to Support Independent Civil Society in Egypt” Human Rights First

      The U.S. government ...undue government interference.


      And Egypt Wont Say No Despite Public Opposition

      Gamal Essam El-Din political analyst and reporter with Al-Ahram Weekly Friday 5 Aug 2011

      US aid to Egypt's civil society: a need, a blessing and a curse,-a-blessing-.aspx

      Aboul-Naga’s senior advisor, T... in civil assistance over 40 years.


      The Plans Unambiguous US signal is key to reestablish civil society and Would Solidify Any Current Gains in US Leadership Within the Region

      Kramer and Puddington 8/4/2011 (David J. and Arch, president of Freedom House, director of research at Freedom House, Look to the cold war to chill fresh calls for American isolationism; Several Democrats and Republicans are calling for a fresh -- and dangerous -- isolationism. But just as Europe needed US leadership after the cold war, so does the Arab world now., Christian Science Monitor, lexis)

      To be sure, Americans' unease w..., America will certainly count itself among the losers.


      Absent This Shift in US Strategic Thinking Decline is Inevitable

      Richard L. Armitage and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. 2007 [quals: Armitage is president of Armitage international and former Deputy Secretary of State During Bush Jr, Nye is a prof of poli sci @ Harvard] “HOW AMERICA CAN BECOME A SMARTER POWER” CSIS COMMISSION ON SMART POWER

      Our view, and the ...of thinking about American power.


      No backlash to hegemony—only way to solve global challenges

      Friedman and Mandelbaum October/November 11 (November, Thomas L., foreign-affairs columnist for the New York Times, Michael, Christian A. Herter professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, "America Really Was That Great",

      The stakes are exceptionally ... to remain an exceptional country.  


      Hegemony solves all conflict escalation – declines means great power war

      Khalilzad, former U.S. ambassador, 11

      (Zalmay, United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, 2-8-11, National Review Online, “The Economy and National Security,”, accessed 2-8-11)

      We face this do...aggressive moves in their regions.



      Independently the Plans Signal is Key to Contain Regional Terrorism

      Zarate and Gordon, 6-’11 (Juan- a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David- Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda”, Washington Quarterly)

      If inadequate reform l...of democrats and dissidents.


      Sinai is a Unique Flashpoint For Terror

      AmrYossef is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Taub Center for Israel Studies at New York University 9/28 2011 Foreign Affairs Securing the Sinai

      Instability in Sinai [... Israel that neither side wants.


      Al Qaeda in Egypt is Modeled

      Garvey, 6-11-‘11 (William- Strategic Intelligence Studies Graduate Student- American Military University, “Whither Al-Qaeda? The Future of Extremist Groups in Post-Revolutionary North Africa”)

      The results of th... they will tread.



      Nuclear terror attack’s inevitable now

      Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment, 5-‘11  ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

      The expert community ...the first   act of nuclear terrorism occurs.


      That Causes Nuclear Terrorism and Guarantees Nuclear Retaliation and an Arms Race

      Rhodes Richard, affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Former visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, and author of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” which won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, National Book Award, and National Book Critics Circle Award. 12-14-09“Reducing the nuclear threat: The argument for public safety”


      The response was v... in the name of sending a message.





      The Brotherhood Will Win the Election – Tunisia’s Elections Prove Islamic Parties Dominate Because of Influence and Resources

      Wall Street Journal 10/26 Matt Bradley Secular Egyptians Fret at Poll Results

      CAIRO—The success of a moderate Islamist ... in the way that's needed."


      And Absent Opportunity to Win Activists Will Boycott the Election – That Tanks Election Legitimacy

      By Marc Lynch Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs" at The George Washington University, September 6, 2011 Will Egypt's Activists Boycott the Election?

      Egyptian activist ..... and, hopefully, to be proven wrong.


      Supporting NGOs Focused on Democratic Reform is Critical to Reinvigorating Strength Within Civil Society Organizations

      David Schenker Director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute 2011 July 25 Egypt’s Enduring Challenges--Policy Recommendations

      Reallocate financing for civil society. A...frustrations with the new government.


      How identity politics will affect politics in Egypt is currently unresolved- there’s still time for the landscape to evolve- how parties position themselves now is key

      Hellyer 8/29/2011 (H.A., Fellow at the Centre for Research in Ethnic Relations at the University of Warwick, Law degree and a Masters degree in International Political Economy from the University of Sheffield. He received his PhD from the University of Warwick, Politics and the new Egypt, Tehran Times,

      “Religion” is important, say Egyptians  ... who have not realized this need to catch up, fast.



      Radical Salafists will use any opportunity to turn the election into an identity question- they’ll rally against the plan and force their identity to the forefront

      El-Houdaiby 8/8/2011 (Ibrahim, freelance columnist and researcher focusing on Islamic movements and democratization, Don't fear the Islamists,

      The scene in the square on ... of many of their supporters.


      That’s the ONLY WAY to overcome the Islamists’ organizational advantage. When the Salafists turn the election into an identity question, they’ll activate Egyptian SUFIS to vote AGAINST them- key to a moderate win

      Wall Street Journal 10/27/2011 (Parties in Egypt Seek New Weapon,

      As Egyptian political parties m... their instructions, nothing else," said Mr. Zahran.


      The Aff Solves Regardless of a Secular Landslide – Civil Society Creates Accountability Through Public Oversight – That Will Moderate Extremism and Pressure Officials to Adapt to Public Demands

       Kevin Russell PhD student in PolSci @ Yale, Worked for secretary of defense primarily in the Middle East office for undersecretary of Defense for Policy, , 9-22- ‘11 “The Fight over Democratic Norms in Egypt”

      However, the Tahrir revolution ... the police from eliciting bribes at every traffic light.


      Brotherhood influence is inevitable- The plan creates a counterweight to prevent a violent political monopoly

      Trager, 10/11- ’11( Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute, PHD candidate in PoliSci at Upenn where his research has focused on egptian opposition parties, He was in egypt during the anti-mubarak revolts, Lived in Egypt from 2006-07)

      Washington should view the re... of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.


      A Lower Parliament Dominated by the MB Will Institute Sharia Law Into the Constitution – Creating a Liberal Counterbalance in the Parliament is Key

      Wall Street Journal 10/26 Matt Bradley Secular Egyptians Fret at Poll Results

      With early election results in Tunisia f...liberal of Arab polities, some Egyptian Islamists say.


      That’s a Voting Issue – Just Kidding WAR

      Gaffney President of the American Center for Security Policy 10/24/11 (Frank, “Rise of Sharia Law Will Bring War to the Middle East,”, Mike

      War is on its way in the ... to suppress their own people, but to endanger us.” 


      Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Tanks US Power Projection and Guarantees Israeli Lash Out – Only A Democratic Victory in the Elections Can Solve

      By George Friedman Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR 2011 January 30 The Egypt Crisis in a Global Context: A Special Report STRATFOR

      For the United States, an Islamist Egypt ... arrangements would remain unchanged.


      And The Brotherhood Will Nuclearize to Counter Israel – That Will Spark a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East and Makes War Inevitable

      Henry Sokolski Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center 2011 February 8,  Gimme Fuel Gimme Fire The New Republic

      When the Iranian Revolution ...forswear making nuclear fuel as a condition for securing U.S. nuclear cooperation.


      This causes perpetual war and terrorism that is untraceable

      Stanley Kurtz, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, “Our Fallout-Shelter Future”, August 26th 2006,,

      Right now, the Indians and Pakistanis … them from escalating into nuclear confrontations.

      MORE TERROR We’re familiar with ... hawkish shall we be, and how shall we shape our alliances?


      Nuclear Cooperation Makes Escalation Quick

      Jonathan Pearl is a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace.2011 February 4 Safeguarding Nuclear Security in the Shadow of Middle East Revolutions

      As revolutionary fervor ...political and military countermeasures.

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    • Tournament: KENTUCKY | Round: 3 | Opponent: KSU KM | Judge: SAM ALLEN

    • 2AC At: Terrorist Wont Use Nukes

      1. Yes Nuclear Terrorism-1AC Russian Joint Threat Assesment And Rodes Causes retaliation

      1. Terrorists will acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan, North korea,Or Iran
      2. They can hire scientists to build them a weapon- very likely considering the rate of information acceleration
      3. Prefer this evidence- its most qualified and precise report on nuclear terrorism


      2AC AT: Other Issues Kill Cred

      1.Egypt is a change to reverse US policy in the region entirely- that's Kramer and Puddington, the fact that there is a negative perception of the US gives us more inherency, proves try or die for successful arab spring

      2. Egypt is the biggest internal to region credibility

      Satloff, 9-13-‘11 (Robert, is executive director of The Washington Institute. , “Needed: High-Level U.S. Attention to the Dire Situation in Egypt”, Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

      For the United States

      standing in the region collapses as well.


      2AC AT Heg N Solve War

      Solves legitimacy- they assume hard power- brooks is better 

      Smart power in the Middle East solves the US economy

      Fettner , 8-26-‘11 (Peter- prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, Press Storm)

      On that reading, the future of American policy lies in

      , enough to revitalize the American economy.

      And, extinction

      Kerpen, Director of Policy for Americans for Prosperity, 10-28-2K8 (Phil, “From Panic to Depression?,” National Review)

      It's important that we avoid all these policy errors

      The stakes couldn't be any higher.


      i) Israeli Paranoia is Enough to Trigger the Link – Israel Wont Risk Trading a Regional Ally For a Palestinian Ally That Makes Public Statements About Eliminating the Country Off the Map

      i)  Threat Perception is Enough to Trigger Israeli PreEmptive Strikes

      Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February, 13, 2011, “THE DIVISION OF EGYPT: THREATS OF US, ISRAELI, AND NATO MILITARY INTERVENTION?”

      If the Egyptian people manage to establish a new

      due to regime change on the other side, we protect it with security arrangements on the ground." [3]

      2AC EU CP

      Counterplan cant solve the aff – Egypt bans all aid to NGOs not supported by the government – sharp indicates that US law circumvents this restriction for any assistance program – they need a piece of evidence that their country  has the same law


      Perm Do Both


      US is already perceived as participating in the political process – means their perm offense is terminally not unique  altering perceptions of current US Support is Critical on All Fronts


      First is Signalling – US support of democratic tranisitions is critical to reorient US foreign policy away from the antagonistic overuse of hard power – that’s pundington and Okeefe – without restoring US credibility war is inevitable


      Absent Smart Power Al Qaeda Will Attack Egyptian Tourism – That Kills the Economy

      Garvey, 6-11-‘11 (William- Strategic Intelligence Studies Graduate Student- American Military University, “Whither Al-Qaeda? The Future of Extremist Groups in Post-Revolutionary North Africa”)

      Al-Qaeda‟s options include Integration,

      committed by the Al Qaeda affiliated group Al-Gama‟a al-Islamiyya (BBC   2002).

      Turns the CP

      Michael Allen Editor of Democracy Digest July 19 2011 Egypt’s transition from ‘durable authoritarianism’ to democracy that delivers ‘in danger of running off the rails’’-to-democracy-that-delivers-in-danger-of-running-off-the-rails/

      History often presents the illusion of inevitability

      they drive protests against democratic ones,” he cautions.


      Second is Civil Society - The Egyptian Public perceives the US interference in the transition - failure to reverse this trend maintains activist perceptions that there is no genuine support – this guarantees disillusionment, party fragmentation and activist boycotting the election – makes democratic transition impossible – thats lynch and shenker


      Only the plan solves- short-term US action is key to reorient Egyptian activism to civic participation

      Schenker, 4-’11 (David, Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges”, Policy Focus #110, Washington Institute)

      After the Papyrus Revolution, it might be tempting

      under military rule, for a transition to a democratic system.

      US is preferable- Unitary leader, more credible- evidence is comparative- Perm is key to solvency

      Pace, ’10 (Michelle- PHD, Senior Research Fellow, Political Science and International Studies Department, European Research Institute, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom, “Perceptions from Egypt and  Palestine on the EU’s Role and Impact on Democracy Building in the Middle East”, IDEA)

      The European Commission set out the strategic and

      building in the two cases in this report: Egypt and Palestine Aff Answers


      Permutation Do Both solves- soft power is not zero-sum

      Grant 3 (Charles, director of the Center for European Reform, cer bulletin, issue 29, “The Decline of

      American Power”

      When the war is over, the western allies

      with more power hard and soft on both sides of the Atlantic.


      Turn- EU soft power leads to China dollar sell off

      Justine A. Rosenthal, Executive Editor – National Interest, “The Closer”, The National Interest, November / December 2007, Lexis

      Even the EU's growing influence

      Our continental military footprint is shrinking too.

      And , Dollar collapses

      Asia Times ’05 (1-27,

      But the fall could quickly turn into a major

      accumulating or slow down their rate of accumulation and it will be a dollar crash."

      And, Economic Collapse

      Time ’04 (Wither The Dollar, 12-20, Lexis)

      This tale of two companies has little to do with what either one makes

      fast or far enough, could topple the economy.

      2AC A/T WORD PIC

      Counterplans that are not textually and functionally competitive are illegitimate-

      Infinitely regressive- kills in-depth debate by focusing on semantics rather the substance of the policy

      Laziness- incentivizes PICs that get recycled every year which kills topic education, and shifts focus away from specific research which steals those portable skills

      They can’t advocate the entire plan- Double bind

      - Either binary thinking is good because it helps us form conviction, so the plan should be a yes/no question


      - Binary thinking is bad and the plan should be amended based on their minor modifications

      Reading the net benefit solves all their offense- if it actually matters then it should be able to outweigh the aff

      Reject the team- prevents proliferation of these strategies 

      -The counterplan isn’t competitive, functional competition is best-

      -Most Real World- Debate should be about wether or not policies should or should not be implemted

      - Ignores the substance of the policy, means we don’t become active citizens because we focus on policy phrasing rather than its effects-  Makes us vulnerable to political manipulation- Also makes us bad policymakers because we would constantly try to debate semantics and would never be able to support the content of our proposals

      -Outweighs any fairness arguments- skills are the only portable impact from debate that directly contributes to our place in society

      -They could just read the “The” pic- creates stale lazy debates

      - That substance of policy key to topic education- turns their advocacy arguments

      Representations Ignore Material Realities That Are Key to Social Change – Means Either the Link is a Lie or the Alt Cant Overcome Other Peoples Perceptions

      Jill Taft-Kaufman, Speech professor @ CMU, 1995, Southern Comm. Journal, Spring, v. 60, Iss. 3, “Other Ways”

      The postmodern passwords of "polyvocality," "Otherness," and "difference,"

      through political agendas, institutions, agencies, and the budgets that fuel them.


      1.      Case outweighs- Timeframe- Israeli lashout is immediate- based on past proclamations

      2.      Case solves disad- Credibility is a prerequisite to

      3. Assistance to Egypt is bipartisan

      Mitchell 11 (Lincoln, 5/25, “Obama’s New Middle East Policy”)

      The similarity between Bush and Obama

      1967 borders with some kind of security guarantees for Israel.

      4. Winners win—unlocks the agenda

      Green 10 (David, professor of political science at Hofstra University, June 11, “The Do-Nothing 44th President”,]

      Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and reciprocal

      And so, with virtually the sole exception of the now retired Helen Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

      5. Obama pushing Egypt aid now- will ramp up efforts soon

      Washington Post 9/24/2011 (Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries,

      Increase in aid  For its part, the Senate Appropriations Committee approved

      Whether such promises will materialize, however, is unknown.

      6. Budget fight first- outweighs the link- starts Monday

      NYT 9/29/2011 (House Approves Stopgap Spending Bill,

      The House on Thursday gave quick approval to a stopgap spending bill

      the solar equipment manufacturer that filed recently for bankruptcy protection.

      7. No vote in the House means no legislative fight, and Obama’s staying out of it

      Sargent 9/29/2011 (Greg, writes The Plum Line blog, a reported opinion blog with a liberal slant -- what you might call “opinionated reporting” from the left. He joined the Post in early 2009, after stints at Talking Points Memo, New York Magazine and the New York Observer, The other big jobs fight,

      But the measure remains bottled up in the GOP-controlled House

      “we share the goal of achieving further appreciation of China’s currency.”

      8. Obama will avoid the issue- no fight

      The Hill 9/28/2011 (Reid playing for leverage with jobs bill,

      One Senate Democratic aide said the Obama

      president of the AFL-CIO, have also made the case for the measure.

      9. Refusing to take a position- bipart support in the Senate means no fight

      The Hill 9/28/2011 (Reid playing for leverage with jobs bill,

      “At the highest levels, we have spoken to the White

      China currency legislation on Monday, and it is expected to pass the chamber next month with strong bipartisan support.

      10. Boehner likes democracy assistance to Egypt- he is key to the GOP

      AFP 5-24-11

      [US push for Mideast democracy 'critical,' says Boehner]

      The United States must erase any doubt over its commitment to

      pressing them to assure US aid to Israel and tighten sanctions on Iran.

      11. The Uighurs Will Model Egypts Violent Protests

      The Economist Feb 20th 2011 Catching a whiff of jasmine in Kashgar

      TWO fire engines stood parked by the road leading past Kashgar's main mosque

      complain that business was badly disrupted by the blackout.

      12. An upsurge in radicalism triggers internal fissures in Western China.

      Rotar 2004 (Igor Rotar is an expert in Central Asia, a Eurasianet correrspondent in Central Asia, and a Central Asia correspondent for Forum-18, a Norway-based news agency specializing in religious rights. He has lived in the region for six years. The Jamestown Foundation --  Volume 4, Issue 8  -- April 15) TG

      'Chinese Chechnya' is how - only half-jokingly - Central Asians

      13. Xinjiang violence escalates to disintegration of China- goes nuclear and sucks in great powers including the US and India

      Klintworth 1994 (Gary, Senior Research Fellow, Northeast Asia Project, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Greater China and regional security, Australian Journal of International Affairs, TG

      China also has many problems, not least the degradation of its environment

      a disintegrating China poses the greatest risk to regional and global security.

      2AC A/T NEOLIB K

      1. Economic collapse causes worse forms of capitalism

      Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, ‘9 (Walter, “Only Makes You Stronger: Why the recession bolstered America”, 2/4, The New Republic)

      Perhaps--but the long history of capitalism suggests another possibility

      Far from being the last nail in America's coffin, the financial crisis may actually resuscitate U.S. power relative to its rivals 

      2. We control the direction of impact uniqueness- International concesus the status quo is getting better as a result of capitalism

      Lean, Writer for the independent study– Basing findings on UN findings And Owen , Writer for the independent study , 7-13-‘8 ( Geoffrey and Jonathon , “We've seen the future... and we may not be doomed; IoS investigation: The world view; UN report finds life is getting better for people worldwide - but that governments are failing to grasp the opportunities offered at 'a unique time”, P.Nexis)

      So says a massive new international report, due to be published

      process and changing institutions, policy-making and governance.

      3. Capitalism Is Biologically Inevitable- Human evolution created the fundamentals of capitalist psychology.

      Wilkinsonpolicy analyst at the Cato Institute, ‘5 ( Will , “Capitalism and Human Nature” ,

      We are Coalitional The size of hunter-gather bands in the EEA ranged from 25 to

      suspicion of power to preserve our freedom. We can, of course, do better.

      4.The alternative causes moral based nationalism

      Gregor, Proffesor of Political Science at UC Berkeley,  ‘99 (A.James, Phoenix: Fascism in Our Time. New Brunswick: Transaction, P.87-88)

      Michels saw in Pisacane's revolutionary convictions a prefiguration

      communities of men in the hard competition that characterizes the modern world.22

      5. That causes never ending war and makes all impacts inevitable

      Gregor, Proffesor of Political Science at UC Berkeley,  ‘99 (A.James, Phoenix: Fascism in Our Time. New Brunswick: Transaction, P.103-104)

      Given Gentile's understanding of the conditions of empirical life in the

      informed by an historic tradition, and disciplined by an arduous mission.76

      6. Cap solves War

      MacKenzie, Assistant professor of economics SUNY Plattsburgh, ‘3 (D.W., “Does Capitalism Require War?”,

      Perhaps the oddest aspect of these various, but similar, claims

      War inflicts poverty by destroying existing wealth. There is no sound reason to think otherwise.

      7. Turn Space-

      The markets efficiency and accesability of resources make it necessary for space exploration

      Murphy , Phd Econ. NYU ,  1-‘5 ( Robert , “A Free Market In Space”, Volume 26, Number 1 , Error! Hyperlink reference not valid. )

      On October 4, 2004, the privately funded SpaceShip-One climbed

      perhaps it will become politically possible to axe NASA and return its budget to the private sector. 

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    • ***1AC***

      Contention 1: The Transition-


      Saleh is stepping down – focus on Yemeni youth is key to preventing them going radical

      Entrikin et al., ‘11 (Devin- Master's Candidate in International Affairs at the New School University, “The Arab Spring in the Arabian Peninsula”, Fall 2011- December 2011)


      The GCC deal was a beneficial AND of access those involved will gain.  


      We must act now to ensure the transition succeeds

      Craig, 12-28-11 (Iona- journalist based in Sana'a, Yemen and the London Times Yemen Correspondent., “We have known nothing but war”, The National)


      Yemen's upheaval was different from its AND years, said Mr Al Iryani.


      Our Advantage Is Terrorism-


      AQAP recruitment is up now—because of power vacuum caused by Saleh’s decline AND fragmented opposition

      From THE COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT 11 (September, "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen")


      In seeking a Yemen permissive for AND foreign occupiers in Afghanistan and  Iraq.


      AND, Selectively Killing Just AQAP Leaders will Never Solve, we must refocus our efforts against the core of AQAP—Empirics prove.

      By Frederick W. Kagan Ians Heg Bro 9/30, 2011 Targeted Killings Can’t Be Total Strategy to Defeat al Qaeda [real quals: scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), and a former professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point]


      The killing of al Qaeda leader AND network than we have yet done.


      AND Generic Al-Qaeda defense doesn’t apply


      First, AQAP is the key to global Al-Qaeda AND Just Killing AQAP leadership will never solve


      Frank J. Cilluffo Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and  Clinton Watts, Principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI,  2011 6/24 “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”


      AQAP is the only al Qaeda AND prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.


      Scenario 1 is Nuclear Terrorism-


      AQAP can launch a nuclear attack

      Elaine M. Grossman 6/10 2011 Global Security Newswire, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability”


      Attacks targeting the United States by AND , fissile materials and dangerous technologies."


      AQAP nuclear terror attack’s inevitable now

      Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment, 5-‘11  ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on

      Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences


      The expert community distinguishes pathways terrorists AND first   act of nuclear terrorism occurs.


      Even an unsuccessful nuclear attack results in retaliation, which leads to EXTINCTION

      Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld)


      But these two nuclear worlds—AND itself unable or unwilling to provide.




      First, Risk of an AQAP Bioterror Attack is High – We’ve Created Super Bugs and Terrorists Can Easily Replicate Them

      Laurie Garrett senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, recipient of the 1996 Pulitzer Prize for her coverage of the Ebola epidemic in what was then Zaire 12/15 2011 The Bioterrorist Next Door


      In September, an amiable Dutchman AND an accidental byproduct of legitimate research.


      AND, Release of these Super-Bugs Causes Extinction

      Daily Mail UK 11/28 2011 'Anthrax isn't scary at all compared to this': Man-made flu virus with potential to wipe out many millions if it ever escaped is created in research lab


      A group of scientists is pushing AND this one.’ –Daily Mail






      Now is the KEY TIME, post-Fukushima AQAP will attack nuclear power plants across the globe – causes meltdowns

      Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,”


      A May 5  "intelligence briefAND failure within a matter of hours …”


      Meltdowns cause extinction

      Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,”


      Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake AND , including far outside East Asia.





      Must support BOTH The Youth Movement And Tribes—Youth has the enthusiasm and Tribes have the power, Their coop is Key to a Successful Transition.

      Boone, 2011

      Jeb Boone is a freelance journalist and former managing editor of The Yemen Times 10/18 October 18, 2011 at 11:42 am EDT The Christian Science Monitor US must engage Yemen's real power-brokers


      Yemen’s rural tribes will play a AND government crisis, or countering AQAP.


      Political party support key to organization and that can ensures the success of the Yemeni Youth movement

      Al-Akhali, 6-30- ‘11 (Rafat- Youth Activist and Co-founder of Resonate! Yemen initiative - Youth initiative that aims to bring the voices and ideas of Young Yemenis to Yemen's public policy discourse and support youth action initiatives, "Youth in Post-Revolution Yemen: A View from the ground," Muftah)


      Given these realities, there are AND fairness and accuracy of these elections.


      And, The plan is key to engage the tribes and to solve.

      Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen, 4

      ("Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 Under USAID Contract, February, This Democracy and Governance (DG) Assessment of Yemen resulted from collaboration among USAID’s Bureau of Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance/Office of Democracy and Governance (DCHA/DG), the USAID Bureau for Asia and the Near East (ANE), USAID/Yemen, the U.S. Embassy in Sana’a, and the Department of State’s Office of Near Eastern Affairs, Middle East Partnership Initiative (NEA/PI/MEPI). The Assessment Team that visited Yemen included Dr. Rhys Payne (ARD), Dr. Ezzedine Moudoud (ARD), Mr. Oliver Wilcox (ANE), and Ms. Tanya Stasiuk (NEA/MEPI). The assessment methodology was developed by the Strategies and Field Support Team of the Center for Democracy and Governance. The Assessment Team wishes to acknowledge the considerable logistical and substantive assistance provided by Post in Yemen. We would like to thank Garret Harries, Abdelkader Mohsen, and Shaif Al Hamdany for their excellent support and insights during the team’s fieldwork in Yemen in September and October 2003. The team also wishes to acknowledge the extensive assistance and input of the Political and Economic Sections of the Embassy, especially that of Cathy Westley, Jill Hutchings, and Mary Brett Rogers, during our fieldwork and afterwards. The assessment benefited from many insights, clarifications, and queries offered by Post. The authors are also grateful to Ambassador Edmund Hull for his observations during the oral outbriefing, as well as to Deputy Chief of Mission Alan Misenheimer and USAID/Yemen Mission Representative Dr. Douglas Heisler for their guidance during the team’s oral inbriefings. In addition, the Assessment Team would like to thank Joshua Kaufman of the Center for Democracy and Governance and Ricki Gold of the ANE Bureau for their technical guidance throughout the process.)


      Local Governance In the past, AND the basic needs of the people.


      Helping Yemeni Youth organize politically is the key to their inclusion and bring them to the Negotiating table… That stops a violent return to street politics, which can kill the democratic transition

      Omar, 11-29- ’11 (Manal- Director of Iraq, Iran, and North Africa Programs, Center for Conflict Management, U.S. Institute of Peace, Islamic Magazine named her one of the ten young visionaries shaping Islam in America. She holds an M.A. in Arab studies from Georgetown University, “Yemeni Youth Central to Success”)


      Over the last nine months there AND that I am a mere student."    


      Lack of Democracy Assistance Alienates the Opposition Groups – The Plan is Key to Secure Their Cooperation to beat AQAP and prevent Southern Secession

      Democracy Digest March 23 2011 “Embrace opposition to prepare for post-Saleh Yemen”


      The crisis in Yemen is presenting AND the rise of other internal opponents.


      Drone strikes on AQAP are inevitable but will fail and produce blowback because of lack of local knowledge – plan is key

      Gude and Sofer 11 (Ken and Ken, Managing Director of the National Security and Internal Policy Program and Special Assistant, "Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen," Center for American Progress, July 14,


      The Wall Street Journal and The AND making an already serious problem worse.


      Plan- The United States federal government ought to substantially increase local governance assistance for democratic capacity-building to Shaykhs and the Yemeni Youth Movement in the Republic of Yemen.


      Observation 3- Our impacts are true—yours aren’t.


      Mutually assured destruction has made interstate war obsolete, nuclear terrorism is the only scenario that triggers nuclear escalation by states

      Caplow, ‘7 (Theodore- commonwealth professor of sociology emeritus at the univ. of virginia, Forbidden Wars, University Press of America, p.97-98)


      Nuclear weapons, which are only AND likely to provoke a nuclear response.  


      Nuclear terrorist attack would be so psychologically damaging that it would cause irrational retaliation—destroying deterrence

      Bostrom, Ackerman and Potter, ‘8 (Nick-Director of the future of humanity institute at oxford university, specializes in probability theory, scientific method, and risk analysis- former expert consultant for european commission in Brussels and the CIA, Gary- research director of the national consortium for START and Director of the center for terrorism and intelligence studies, and William- Institute professor and director of the center for nonproliferation studies on numerous committees of the national academy of science, “Global Catastrophic Risks”, Oxford University Press, p.430-31)


      Unlike the more tangible physical and AND as we know it (1957).


      There is an almost zero probability for great power shoot out- our evidence indicts all of the negatives impact scenarios

      Fettweis, ‘8 (Christopher J.- PoliSci Proff @ Tulan University and Former Proff of U.S. foreign policy and Grand strategy @ naval war college, “Losing Hurts Twice as Bad”, W.W. Norton & Company, p.190-94)


      One can be fairly confident in AND how dire any future situation appears.


      There is a bias against rationality in the literature- your epistemology is flawed

      Goldstein, ’11 (Joshua- - professor emeritus of international relations at American University,  “Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide”, Dutton Adult, p.242, September)


      Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker adds that AND announcing that things keep getting better.”




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