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1AC

First is Solvency – 

The US must use a two track assistance regime in Egypt-providing security from extremist groups, and providing technical assistance for elections and the creation of political institutions

Michael Singh in 11 (managing director of the Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle Eastern affairs at the National Security Council. Previously, Mr. Singh taught economics at Harvard University. He is currently serving as a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Harvard International Review, Change in the Middle East, Academic Search Premier) 

This is not to say that each country 

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other steps required to carry out sustainable reform.

NDI historically has been successful and currently has programs supporting election monitoring and technical assistance for the elections and establishing political parties.

National Democratic Institute in 11

Egypt; http://beta.ndi.org/egypt

NDI continues to maintain strong relationships with civil 

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with which the two major parties operate internally.

But the NDI is short staffed and lacks resources to respond to all the requests for support.

Slavin in 11

Barbara; Inter Press Services Washington Correspondent; Mideast: U.S. 'Democracy' Advisors Suddenly in Demand; April 14; Global Issues; http://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/04/14/9287

Carpenter, now with the Washington Institute for 

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programmes at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

And, the US is always key – it has unparalleled capacity and influence – grassroots connections are critical to improving US image.

Al-Oraibi and Russell in 11

Mina and Gerard; Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief for Asharq Al-Awsat, the world’s largest

pan-Arab daily newspaper and Research Fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School of Government respectively; The Trust Deficit: Seven Steps Forward for US-Arab Dialogue; Washington Quarterly Summer 2011

This article has addressed itself entirely to the 

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principles, it can move in that direction.

Plan: The United States federal government should fully fund the National Democratic Institute for its programs on technical assistance in political organization and elections monitoring in Egypt.

Several scenarios, first is Democracy

The SCAF is executing smear campaigns against political parties and CSOs as a prelude to an attempt to rig the election – monitoring is key to check.

Hassan and Shenker in 11

Amro and Jack; journalist who writes regularly for The Guardian from Egypt. His work has covered India and Nepal, Central Asia, the Balkans, the US and Gaza, and has been published in a wide range of magazines and newspapers across the globe - including The Times, The Independent, The New Statesman and Monocle; Egyptian human rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/egypt-human-rights-military

A list of 39 organisations have added their 

AND 

why our presence and monitoring will be crucial."

Without successful monitoring SCAF could rig the election to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to hold a majority 

Halawa in 11 (Omar, Contributer Almasry Alyoum, “As Egypt rejects international election monitors, rights advocates fear fraud” ) 

A spokesperson for the ruling military council on 

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and excluded independent groups from the monitoring process.

Muslim Brotherhood will erode Egypt - Israeli peace treaty and lure Israel into war

Hirsi Ali in 11 (resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute,the author of Infidel and Nomad and the founder of the AHA Foundation,  “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed Where Osama Failed?” summer 2011)  

True, the Brotherhood’s leaders have insisted that 

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states that do not share the Islamist vision.

Muslim Brotherhood win means Islamic encirclement of Israel and conflict

Hirsh in 11 (Michael, National Journal, “Mideast Uprisings Could Mean Grim Tidings for Israel” )  

It's hardly surprising that many Israelis are jaded 

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like standoff, as in the Palestinian territories.

And this will push Israel to take unilateral action against Egypt and Hamas.

Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” ) 

Should pressure ease, and should Hamas—

AND 

leaders prefer to avoid a confrontation with Israel.

Egypt-Israeli conflict escalates to nuclear war

Eldar in 3 

Dan Eldar, adjunct research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, former senior analyst at the Israeli prime minister's office, “Egypt and Israel: A Reversible Peace,” The Middle East Quarterly, Fall 2003, pp. 57-65

In addition, there is a risk that 

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did with dire consequences for the entire region.

Next is Stability

Stability is down now – limited capacities and personnel producing absence of security – clarity in legal structure, technical capacities, and monitoring are key.

Al-A’sar 8/8/11

Marwa; staff writer for The Daily News Egypt; ElBaradei criticizes 'unclear vision' in transition; The Daily News Egypt; http://thedailynewsegypt.com/egypt/elbaradei-criticizes-unclear-vision-in-transition.html

ElBaradei, also the former director of the 

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to avoid any possibility of vote-rigging.

Egypt will be the lynchpin of the US’s Middle East strategy.  Failure of the transition will set the entire region back and usher in a new wave of radicalism that disrupts stability

Kitfield in 11 (James,  National Journal; 3/5/2011, p10-10, 1p,  U.S. Faces Dynamic Instability in the Middle East, Academic Search Premier)

No one can predict the outcome of the 

AND 

would have dangerous consequences for the entire region."

And continued Egyptian instability or radicalism will cause a cascade of nuclear proliferation through MENA.

Sokolski in 11

Henry; executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center; Feb 8; Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire: What the Egyptian revolt means for nuclear proliferation; The New Republic; http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak

Even more dangerously, unlike Iraq, Syria

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states whose governments are likely to be destabilized.

Proliferations causes extinction – nuclear arms races and miscalculated nuclear war.

Utgoff in 2

(Deputy Director of the Strategy Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, Victor, “Proliferation, Missile Defence, and American Ambitions,” Survival, Volume 44, Number 2, Summer)

First, the dynamics of getting to a 

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the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations

US leadership in ME key to overall hegemony and guarantees the security of multiple middle eastern states

Haass and Indyk in 09 (Richard N., President of the Council on Foreign relations, and Martin, “Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East”, Council on Foreign Relations, ) 

This reduced regional influence has been reinforced by 

AND 

their leaders in working with the United States.

The United States is still an indispensible nation – it is economically and militarily secure as a global power

Ron Marks, Senior Vice President for Government Relations, Oxford-Analytica, June 1, 2010 10:55 AM, “The Decline Redux,” http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/superpower-or-spendthrift.php#1589150

Ok, let's get some facts on the 

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decline for awhile because this is getting boring.

Collapse of US leaderships means a laundry list of terrorism, radicalism, authoritarianism, and international conflict up to the use of nuclear weapons.

Kagan in 11 

Robert Kagan. Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs.” Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18. http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1

Today the international situation is also one of 

AND 

table and the table will not fall over.

No multi-polarity – collapse of hegemony causes global anarchic violence

Ferguson in 4

Niall, Professor of History at New York University's Stern School of Business and Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; “A world without power,” Foreign Policy 143, p. 32-39, July-August 

<But what if these esteemed theorists are 

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and civilization's retreat into a few fortified enclaves.>

And last is Egyptian Foreign Policy

Egypt’s international role is key, what happens here shapes policy across the whole of the Middle East and North Africa – risking failure means a cascade of rebalanced and hostile relations in the Middle East with Iran, the US, and Israel.

Alterman 6/15/11

Jon B; senior fellow and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; The Earthquake: How Egypt Emerges from Uncertainty; CSIS; http://csis.org/files/publication/110610_alterman_GlobalForecast2011.pdf

The stakes are surely high enough to provoke 

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, and especially in sectors that create jobs.

And Egypt is a critical turning point for the zero sum battle between GCC states and Iran – the status quo means a Shi’a empire, a nuclear Iran, rapid Mid East proliferation. An authentically democratic Egypt with a robust secular base is the key to challenging Iranian supremacy.

Santini and Alessandri in 11

Ruth Hanau; Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) expertise in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Emiliano; Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund; “Iran and Turkey after Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?”; Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings

At present, the balance of power in 

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Iran has long presented to the Middle East.

Iranian support networks and regional hegemony threaten the globe through international arms proliferation which sparks counter-proliferation as well as the potential for international and regional conflict that can include ICBMs and nuclear weapons.

Maginnis 7/12/11

Robert; retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst; U.S. Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony; Human Events; http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787

President Barack Obama’s wrongheaded Iran strategy virtually guarantees 

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more dangerous place through its nonstop arms sales.

1) O’Keefe, Arnold, and Hamid – whether or not the aff happens does not determine whether or not the US continues dumping aid on Arab Spring states or whether or not these states have an election – only the aff ensures stability and a smooth transition. 

2) We control impact uniqueness you should preference our impact turns above the K impact -

The spread of western values and institutions globally is key-Anti-Western movements cause comparatively more violence.  Only global western values create the conditions necessary for long term peace and prevent genocide

Shaw in 2k1 (Martin,  sociologist of global politics, war and genocide. He is Research Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations, )

It is time to rescue … within a global commonality of values.15

As students and scholars we are obligated to stay engaged in the shaping of western and international institutions.  Failure to do risks a collapse of the global democratic revolution that will cause widespread genocide and nuclear conflict. 

Shaw in 2k1 (Martin, sociologist of global politics, war and genocide. He is Research Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations, )

The new politics of international … relations and politics, are intertwined.

Democratic transitions are inevitable-only the spread of Western institutions prevents them from escalating to nuclear war

Shaw in 2k1 (Martin,  sociologist of global politics, war and genocide. He is Research Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations, )

If we look at these … likely to secure a peaceful world.

Their metaphysical and moral rejection of the West collapses any political responsibility-this prevents intervention necessary to stop the spread of endless violence and injustice.

Bruckner in 2k6 (Pascal,  After studies at the university Paris I and Paris VII Diderot, and then at the École Pratique des Hautes Études, he became maître de conférences at the Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris, and collaborator at the Nouvel Observateur, The Tyranny of Guilt An Essay on Western Masochism)

The true crime of ,,,r present malfeasance. <96-100>

1.    Ground and strategy skew- they moot the value of the 1AC and force the aff to start the debate in the 2AC.

2.    Encourage vague plan writing- that hurts the negative’s ability to generate offense and is uniquely worse for them.

3.    Education – PICs reduce debate to superficial distinctions between the plan and counterplan- this moots breadth of education in the activity.

4.    Affirmative contradiction – it forces us to argue against ourselves which makes debate abusive and unfair – this supercedes education.

5.    Its inifintely regressive- justifying any single pic opens up the floodgates for menial one word pics.

6.    Literature checks- If they don’t have a piece of evidence specifically advocating the action of the counterplan it means debate is impossile for the aff to predict.

7.    This is a voter for reasons of fairness and ground– reject the team, not the argument.

1) Perm do both

2) Perm do the alt

3) Perm do the plan and all non-competitive parts of the alternative.

4) No part of the aff conditions aid on them altering economic policy which is the neg’s link argument.

Instability in the region means conflicts, spread of neolib, and state collapse

Colombo in 10

Silvia, Researcher and a specialist in Mediterranean and Middle East issues at the

Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome, “The Southern Mediterranean: Between Changes and Challenges to its Sustainability” (Mediterranean Prospects) Silvia Colombo MEDPRO Technical Report No. 1/November, http://www.medpro-foresight.eu/system/files/MEDPRO%20TP%20No%201%20WP2%20Colombo.pdf

Given our hypothesis of … certain domestic conditions reach the tipping point.

Democracy promotion is empirically not always tied to neoliberal reforms – I challenge the negative to explain how our plan forces countries to accept neoliberal economic reforms. Imperialism is rooted in double standards, not economic impositions.

Richard Youngs 2011, Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion,” FRIDE working paper, january, google

It is absolutely true, and … model of democratic reform.1

CAP SUSTAINABLE- MARKET INNOVATION WILL OUTPACE SCARCITY

NORBERG, 03 (Johan Norberg, Senior Fellow at Cato Institute, “In Defense of Global Capitalism”, p. 223)

It is a mistake, then, ,,, to find substitutes for it.

CAPITALISM IS A MONOLITHIC AND FLUID SYSTEM THAT CAN’T BE OVERCOME.

GIBSON-GRAHAM, 6 – Professor of Geosciences at University of Massachusetts, PhD; Feminist Economic Geographer and Professor at the Australian National University, PhD

(J.K. Gibson-Graham, “The End of Capitalism as We Knew It,” pg. 255-257)

Through its architectural …, often an arduous if not impossible process. 13

THE TRANSITION TO MARXIST WILL CAUSE MILLIONS OF DEATHS, DESTRUCTIONS OF LIVING STANDARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION, AND FAMINE.

RUMMEL, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Hawaii, 04

(RJ, World Net Daily, “The Killing Machine that is Marxism,, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41944, December 15)

Of all religions, secular and … a deadly plague on all of us.

Cap solves the intensity and escalation of war

Hewitt and Gartzke in 10 (ERIK GARTZKE, University of California, San Diego J. JOSEPH HEWITT University of Maryland, “International Crises and the Capital Peace”)

Our analysis builds on … intensity and escalation.

CAPITALISM INCREASES ENVIRONMENTALISM WHICH CAUSES SHARP DECREASES IN ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION.

TAYLOR, Director of Natural Resource Studies at the CATO Institute, 03

(Jerry, The CATO Institute, “Happy Earth Day? Thank Capitalism,” April 23, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3073, Accessed 7-11-09, PAK)

Indeed, we wouldn't … form of pollution) shrank.

SOCIALISM DESTROYS THE ENVIRONMENT LACK OF EFFICIENCY AND OWNERSHIP ENSURE.

NORBERG, 03 (Johan Norberg, Senior Fellow at Cato Institute, “In Defense of Global Capitalism”, p. 235)

Very often, environmental … car of 30 years ago.

CAPITALISM KEY TO BIOTECH. 

ZEY, PhD and director @ Expansionary Institute, 2K (MICHAEL, The Future Factor, P. 20)

Our efforts to achieve … 50 billion people or more.

BIOTECH KEY TO GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY.  
MCGLOUGHLIN, PROFESSOR @ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IN DAVIS, 99 (MARTINA, TEN REASONS WHY BIOTECHNOLOGY WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE DEVELOPING WORLD, HTTP://WWW.AGBIOFORUM.MISSOURI.EDU/V2N34/V2N34A04-MCGLOUGHLIN.HTM)

Biotechnology companies, national … increase production to meet future food needs.

INCREASED FOOD PRICES TRIGGERS MASS STARVATION, KILLING NINETY-FIVE PERCENT OF HUMANITY. 

ADAMS, STAFF WRITER @ NATURALNEWS.COM, 08 (MIKE, THE BIOFUELS SCAM, FOOD SHORTAGES AND THE COMING COLLAPSE OF THE HUMAN POPULATION, APRIL 23, HTTP://WWW.NATURALNEWS.COM/023091.HTML)

So, to repeat, the food ,,, from mass starvation.