Advantage 1 is Stability:

Unaccounted weapons in Libya allow for escalating conflict between rival factions

Ducan 12/8/11 (Don, Writer for PRI The World, “Libya Facing Gun Problem”
In Libya, the...at a time. 

Clashes result in quick escalation to civil war – spills over.

Barsky in 12 (Dina, Writer Smith Publicity, PRWeb, “Libyan Civil War Coming in 2012 According to Peter Leeds Penny Stock”
The coming year...without boundaries.” 

NATO withdrawal means no check against violence – quick escalation into conflict.
Xinhua 10/25/11 (“ NTC to probe Gaddafi death, as no NATO forces to stay around Libya”
Meanwhile on Monday...remaining Gaddafi loyalists. 

Libya is a flashpoint for global war – goes nuclear
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”,
Scott told Progressive Radio ... early 1914.

DDR key to solve a peaceful transition – Western support is key.
Ashour 10/26/11 (Dr. Omar, lecturer in Arab politics and Director of the Middle East Graduate Studies Program at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter (UK), is a visiting fellow in Brookings Doha Center and the author of "The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements."  “Controlling Libya's weapons”
The disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of the.... track toward democracy. 

Failure of transition in the short-term means the interim government will entrench itself, killing all prospects of a democratic transition
Allen 10/27/11 (Michael, Editor Democracy Digest, “Libya’s interim leaders ‘could pose threat’ to democratic transition?”
With Moammar Gaddafi’s death, ... trial and error.” 

Failed transition means cross-border violence and domestic and regional instability.
Goldsmith in 2008(Arthur A., Professor of Management at the University of Massachusetts Boston, “Making the World Safe for Partial Democracy? Questioning the Premises of Democracy Promotion”, International Security, Vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 120-147, Fall)
The intellectual foundation ... add to the risks. 

And, Advantage 2 is Hegemony:

Arab Spring means a decline of US hegemony in the Middle East – support key to perception.
Murphy 12/11/11, Brian (AP). “America’s Mideast Shuffle: Map of Influence Reordered by Uprisings.” The
Tell sees the Arab ... longer Big Brother."

Libya is a test for US credibility – successful transition key to strategic cooperation.
Hamid 8/26/2011 [Shadi Hamid is director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. Libya may be in America's vital interest after all, ]jap
That said, the U.S. ... interests. Not yet, at least. 

Strategic cooperation key to power projection – failed Libya means terrorist takeover and oil spikes that tank the global economy.

Pack 2011 [Jason, researcher of Libya at Oxford University, has worked in Tripoli and Washington, D.C., on strengthening U.S.-Libya relations. Libya Is Too Big to Fail, March 18, 2011 , AD 9-11-2011]
But a brief review ... big to be allowed to fail 

Libya is the test case for US leadership – supporting democratic transition is key to restore leadership.
Hamid, 2011 (Shadi, Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Libya may be in America’s vital interest after all”, CNN World, August 26th,
The future of Libya ... friendly to the West.

US leadership in ME key to overall hegemony and guarantees the security of multiple middle eastern states
Haass and Indyk in 09 (Richard N., President of the Council on Foreign relations, and Martin, “Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East”, Council on Foreign Relations,
This reduced regional... the United States.

The United States is still an indispensible nation – it is economically and militarily secure as a global power
Ron Marks, Senior Vice President for Government Relations, Oxford-Analytica, June 1, 2010 10:55 AM, “The Decline Redux,”
Ok, let's get some facts ...is getting boring.

Collapse of US leaderships means a laundry list of terrorism, radicalism, authoritarianism, and international conflict up to the use of nuclear weapons.
Kagan in 11
Robert Kagan. Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs.” Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18.
Today the international situation ...will not fall over.

And, Advantage 3 is Oil:

Libya on track to restore full oil production by mid 2012
Philstar 12/24/11 (“Official: Libya to hit full oil output by mid-2012”
Libya's oil chief ...or OAPEC, in Cairo on Saturday. 

Oil Shocks in 2012 would kill economic recovery
Lazarro 12/27/11 (Joseph, International Business Times, “Oil- It Still Has the US Over A Barrel”,
Oil, the world's most ... oil, in general. 

However, further instability in Libya kills oil production
LRC, 6/13/11 (Libyan Revolution Central, “Libyan rebel NOC head says oil output will take months to restore,” , CW, accessed on 8/2/11)
Libyan oil production ... be restored. 

Failure to restore production in Libya means oil shocks are inevitable – kills chances of global economic recovery
Drum 8/26 (Kevin, Mother Jones, “Our Oil-Constrained Future”,
I've talked a few times.... Rinse and repeat. 

Libyan oil uniquely will serve as a key buffer for struggling economies
Huang 8/24/11, Ryan, Singapore News, “Oil Prices to Soften: Analysts”,
SINGAPORE: From ... turmoil in financial markets. 

Economic downturn causes internal conflict, great power wars over territorial disputes, and extinction.
Auslin 2009, scholar at American Enterprise Institute,
[Michael, “The global Economy Unravels” American Enterprise Institute, ,pubID.29502/pub_detail.asp]
What do these trends ... coalesce into a big bang.

Thus, the plan: The United States Federal Government should implement a Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration program in Libya. 

And finally, Solvency:

DDR key to solve Libyan transition
Marozzi 11/25/11 (Justin, Albany Associates, “Libya – Challenges and Communications”
Libya’s rebels .... training and education. 

DDR is crucial first step to stable transition.
Martin 11/28/11 (Ian, special representative UN News Centre, “Most pressing task for Libya is consolidation of security, UN envoy reports”
Libya’s interim Government ...are all at stake. 

US key – expertise in DDR.
Laporte-Oshiro in 11/17/11 (Alison, United States Institute of Peace “From Militants to Policemen: Three Lessons from U.S. Experience with DDR and SSR” Peace Brief 115)
The U.S. military should ... achieve effective outcomes. 

The endpoint of DDR is rule of law reform – ensures less militants and stable police force – we have NED definition in context of topical country.
Democracy Digest 11/15/11. “Disarming, Demobilizing, and Reintegrating Former Combatants is Key to Libya’s Transition.”
Efforts to persuade ... to Democracy in Libya.

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Plan: The United States federal government should fully fund the National Democratic Institute for its programs on technical assistance in political organization and elections monitoring in Egypt.

Advantage 1 is Democracy.

The SCAF is executing smear campaigns against political parties and CSOs as a prelude to an attempt to rig the election – monitoring is key to check.

Hassan and Shenker in 11

Amro and Jack; journalist who writes regularly for The Guardian from Egypt. His work has covered India and Nepal, Central Asia, the Balkans, the US and Gaza, and has been published in a wide range of magazines and newspapers across the globe - including The Times, The Independent, The New Statesman and Monocle; Egyptian human rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/egypt-human-rights-military

A list of 39 …will be crucial."

Without successful monitoring SCAF could rig the election to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to hold a majority

Halawa in 11 (Omar, Contributer Almasry Alyoum, “As Egypt rejects international election monitors, rights advocates fear fraud” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/479258)

A spokesperson for …groups from the monitoring process.

Muslim Brotherhood will erode Egypt - Israeli peace treaty and lure Israel into war

Hirsi Ali in 11 (resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute,the author of Infidel and Nomad and the founder of the AHA Foundation,  “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed Where Osama Failed?” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5842.2011.01259.x/pdf summer 2011) 

True, the Brotherhood’s leaders …share the Islamist vision.

Failure of democracy in Egypt leads to scapegoating; leaders will deflect anti- regime sentiments into anti- Israel sentiments escalating conflict

Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)

Israel's fears are …could spiral into disaster.

Even if the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel is not overturned Egypt will support Israel’s enemies

Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)

Because the peace treaty …its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.

This causes an Israeli unilateral attack.

Byman in 11 ( Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring” http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2011.588139)

Should pressure ease… a confrontation with Israel.

Israel-Egypt war escalates to WMD exchange

International Business Times 2011 “Middle East on Brink of Full-Scale War: Israeli General,” http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/209378/20110906/israel-defense-general-eisenberg-war-iran-syria-turkey-egypt.htm

The Middle East is … as a new source of conflict.

Advantage 2 is Stability

Current instability means that failure of the transition in Egypt will set the entire region back and usher in a new wave of radicalism that disrupts stability and cripples US leadership.

Kitfield in 11 (James,  National Journal; 3/5/2011, p10-10, 1p,  U.S. Faces Dynamic Instability in the Middle East, Academic Search Premier)

No one can predict …for the entire region."

US hegemony is sustainable – economy and military superiority

Ron Marks, Senior Vice President for Government Relations, Oxford-Analytica, June 1, 2010 10:55 AM, “The Decline Redux,” http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/superpower-or-spendthrift.php#1589150

Ok, let's get some facts …this is getting boring.

But US regional hegemony is on the brink

The Guardian Monday 31 May 2010, “US hegemony in Middle East is ending,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending

Not that this … Middle East could be ending.

Middle East hegemony is key to overall hegemony

Haass and Indyk in 09 (Richard N., President of the Council on Foreign relations, and Martin, “Beyond Iraq: A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East”, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63718/richard-n-haass-and-martin-indyk/beyond-iraq)

This reduced regional … with the United States.

Collapse of US leadership causes a litany of scenarios for nuclear war and massive destruction

Kagan in 11

Robert Kagan. Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “The Price of Power: The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs.” Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18. http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1

Today the international situation is … and the table will not fall over.

No multi-polarity – collapse of hegemony causes global anarchic violence

Ferguson in 4

Niall, Professor of History at New York University's Stern School of Business and Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; “A world without power,” Foreign Policy 143, p. 32-39, July-August

<But what if these … into a few fortified enclaves.

And last is Egyptian Foreign Policy

Egypt’s international stance shapes policy across the Middle East and North Africa – democratic failure causes regional upheaval

Alterman 6/15/11

Jon B; senior fellow and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; The Earthquake: How Egypt Emerges from Uncertainty; CSIS; http://csis.org/files/publication/110610_alterman_GlobalForecast2011.pdf

The stakes are surely … sectors that create jobs.

Egypt is a key battleground in the fight between the GCC and Iran – status quo ensures rapid proliferation. Only a robust democracy in Egypt solves.

Santini and Alessandri in 11

Ruth Hanau; Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) expertise in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Emiliano; Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund; “Iran and Turkey after Egypt: Time for Regional Re-alignments?”; Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings

At present, the balance of … to the Middle East.

Iranian regional hegemony threatens the globe – causes proliferation, instability, terrorism, and conflict up to nuclear war

Maginnis 7/12/11

Robert; retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst; U.S. Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony; Human Events; http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787

President Barack Obama’s wrongheaded … through its nonstop arms sales.

Third is Solvency:

NDI lacks resources in the status quo

Slavin in 11

Barbara; Inter Press Services Washington Correspondent; Mideast: U.S. 'Democracy' Advisors Suddenly in Demand; April 14; Global Issues; http://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/04/14/9287

Carpenter, now with …for International Peace.

The US is uniquely suited to provide training, experience, and funds to organizations like the NDI to work in elections monitoring, civil society, and political party training – action now during Egyptian transition is key – no additional funding required.

Masloski in 11, Andrew (Director of Educational Outreach at America Abroad Media). “The Price of Democracy in Egypt.” Foreign Policy. 2/9 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_democracy_in_egypt

While Congress has entertained … U.S. has to offer.

US success in Egypt is key to solve anti-Americanism in the region and re-establish regional credibility.

Hamid in 11

Shadi; Director of Research @ Brookings Doha Center; The Struggle for Middle East Democracy; Cairo Review of Global Affairs; http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx

The revolutions are far … This has not happened.

Perception is key in the coming months- the US must show support for democratic regimes to boost its image in the region and ensure that the Egypt-Israel peace treaty stays in place

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) - 09/08/11,  Whither the Arab Spring, The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/180407-whither-the-arab-spring

The coming months will … in the coming months. 

No uniqueness – the US is already dumping aid in Egypt – it’s perceived and we’ve been criticized for it. US commitment to this track is key.

O’Keefe in 11

Quinn; Senior Associate, Human Rights Defenders; U.S. Should Be Proud of Doing the Right Thing to Support Independent Civil Society in Egypt; Human Rights First; http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/08/16/u-s-should-be-proud-of-doing-the-right-thing-to-support-independent-civil-society-in-egypt/

The U.S. government is … of backing down.

The Muslim Brotherhood is transforming – they are expelling more peaceful, progressive members in favor of radicalism. This is splitting their base – the radical Muslim Brotherhood will not win a majority in a fair election, a rigged election guarantees radicalism

Glain in 11 (Stephen, The Nation Institute, “Fault Lines in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood”, September 12, 2011 http://www.theinvestigativefund.org/investigations/international/1552/fault_lines_in_egypt's_muslim_brotherhood/?page=entire) 

The day before my interview … interact with it.”